My take on what is going on. Some is speculation.
Hamas announces they have accepted a cease fire deal. People in Gaza are ecstatic. Israel was not even at the negotiations so no deal.
The US announces a token halt on some arms shipments to Israel.
Israel carefully puts pressure on Hamas in Rafah.
Hamas soft power speaks loud worldwide while terrorists hide behind hostages and civilians.
My take on what is going on. Some is speculation.
Hamas announces they have accepted a cease fire deal. People in Gaza are ecstatic. Israel was not even at the negotiations so no deal.
The US announces a token halt on some arms shipments to Israel.
Israel carefully puts pressure on Hamas in Rafah.
Hamas soft power speaks loud worldwide while terrorists hide behind hostages and civilians.
There seems to be some disagreement between the US and Israel on Rafah but as it turns out in internal Israeli public debates and something I partially believe in - it's more a Biden-Netanyahu thing than a US-Israel thing.
There's the narrative that Biden thinks Netanyahu is exploiting aspects of the war for political gain, or survival, which definitely sounds like him. But I personally also believe that it's not really possible to truly conclude this war without taking over at least the Philadelphi corridor (Gaza-Egypt border) and set up a buffer zone into Gaza, to put a halt to arms smuggling from Sinai into Gaza.
There's much to speculate about here, but one thing seems pretty certain to me - Biden's decisions are actually raising Netanyahu's popularity.
There are also reports on various telegram channels of Hamas repeating their attacks on Kerem Shalom.
This is an aid terminal into Gaza. Cutting off aid to Gaza is part of Hamas's strategy.
Hamas are an Iranian backed terrorist organisation who committed a despicable attack on Israel and as a result should reap what they sow. However, that does not give Israel the right to commit a policy of unrestricted warfare against a civilian population. There have also been allegations of war crimes being committed by both sides.
There are some posts which have got personal. That is not acceptable, and everyone knows that. If you want to get personal take it elsewhere. Don't do it on here.
Politics appear to be creeping into the discussion. We all know that is against the rules.
The WCK trucks are similar to the one seen at around 0:25 in the video. White unmarked pickup trucks, on which a logo is often glued.
I don't think I even need to mention the massive employment of perfidy in this conflict.
Just wondering what Indonesian Indomie instant noodles being blame as support to Hamas. Pro Palestine is not same with Pro Hamas, no matter some try to portrait that.
Just wondering what Indonesian Indomie instant noodles being blame as support to Hamas. Pro Palestine is not same with Pro Hamas, no matter some try to portrait that.
They aren't protesting the supply of arms to Hamas, but aid to Gaza. In their worldview the Palestinians want to destroy them and shouldn't be rewarded for it. Basically FAFO in a wider sense.
Some say they're there as a show, as their political representatives are in the government serving as ministers, including ministry of defense, ministry of national security, and cabinet presence as well. The same narrative alleges they are sent by the government to show "our supporters oppose aid".
This is important because cutting off aid is more popular in Israel than just this fringe group (referred to in Israel as "religious nationalists" or "datal" in hebrew).
Another narrative is these are ordinary people that are allowed to vent, while police is ill equipped to handle such protests on a regular basis.
Fact is there are more trucks entering Gaza every day, or waiting to enter due to clogged terminals, than what is actually distributed (UNRWA's responsibility). Israel was recently requested to slow down aid shipments. All in all, these have no effect whatsoever.
The 36th and 162nd divisions, as well as the Nahal brigade - are the ones to watch in the coming operations across Gaza and elsewhere.
The 36th and 162nd are the IDF's main breakthrough divisions and are armor-heavy.
The Nahal on the other hand is an infantry brigade uniquely equipped with fast, well armored, and modern Eitan APCs allowing them unique flexibility and capability for raids. These vehicles were used extensively for medevac, starred in one rescue op, and have been highly appreciated by everyone for the mobility they bring.
Israeli minister of defense Yoav Gallant in a speech about the "day after" in Gaza, criticizing the government for inaction and indecision on the matter.
Yoav Gallant was heavily criticized by the coalition for that speech, meaning he's right in his assessment:
IDF have a clear idea on what they want to do and achieve for Rafah in military terms. But the civilians evidently don't know exactly what they want for the "day-after".
And I have a suspicion that this vaccum / uncertainty is causing a delay in IDF's military execution.
Hence Gallant's comments might well be striking home (hence the reaction)
Another episode with the ICJ begins as some expect the ICJ to issue an order to halt the war in Gaza. Yet an international court is only as authoritative as it is credible.
Today the ICJ took a hit to its credibility, which it can only restore by having the newly appointed president of the ICJ recuse himself from the Israel - South Africa case.
Israeli observation aerostat system "Sky Dew" was disabled by a Hezbollah drone. Such systems were predictably not survivable beyond peacetime, however it does raise questions about Israel's ability to shoot down lower class UAS that typical missile-based VSHORAD are not optimized for.
An American aerostat was reportedly downed yesterday in eastern Syria.
This is widely seen in Israel as an attempt to blind the IDF ahead of intensifying attacks, particularly via cruise missiles.
Army says the three escaped from rave on Oct. 7 before being murdered by Hamas terrorists, who kidnapped their bodies; Gelerenter and Buskila were presumed alive until recently
www.timesofisrael.com
One is Shani Louk, confirmed dead in October as a part of her skull was found in the early days of the ground incursion.
The other two, Itzhak Gelerenter and Amit Buskila were presumed to be alive until now.
Gantz sets an ultimatum to Netanyahu: Stop stalling on long term strategy or I quit.
Intro on Gantz and the war cabinet:
Gantz is a former IDF chief of general staff, minister of defense, and now a key figure in Israel's opposition bloc as well as leader of a party that is consistently ranked as the biggest party in polls.
Following October 7th and the understanding that the current coalition is no more than a bunch of idiots, Netanyahu wisely decided to override the security cabinet with a new one dubbed "war cabinet".
In the war cabinet are 3 members:
Benny Gantz (National Unity).
Yoav Gallant (Minister of Defense, Likud).
Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister, Likud).
And 3 observers:
Gadi Eizenkot (National Unity, former chief of general staff).
Arie Deri (Shas, unqualified).
Ron Dermer (independent, identified with Likud).
Despite Yoav Gallant's membership in the Likud and being a personal appointment by Netanyahu, he has been a voice of reason and has given significant weight to Benny Gantz and his party's opinions. In addition to joining the war cabinet, Gantz and his party officially joined the government. However they do not vote in line with the coalition.
On October 7th the government had many options, but the common denominator is a wide military action across Gaza to eradicate Hamas. So naturally that happened. But from there, there are many possibilities. Stalling and ending up with Israeli re-occupation of Gaza is arguably the worst of them all, and is naturally unpopular among Israelis. Such action would require Israel to invest 1-2 divisions at the very least, into securing Gaza. The IDF would need at least 2-3 divisions for a security belt in Lebanon. This is simply not feasible unless the IDF starts recruiting ultra orthodox and Arabs into its ranks, something which would inevitably degrade the quality of its soldiers, and subsequently of its officers.
Alternatively, a Palestinian state is also not a popular idea, especially post 7/10. Before 7/10 even Netanyahu and extremist elements like Smotrich could talk about the merits of Palestinian statehood. But today even those much farther to the left would consider endorsement of a Palestinian state a political suicide. So it would be very comfortable to dump this onto political opponents so when they get elected, there's an immediate crisis they're allegedly guilty of.
To be fair, Palestinian statehood was clearly proven to be a failed project. They are incapable of self-ruling and in need of foreign rule. But that takes diplomacy - something Netanyahu has also undermined.
Gantz laid out 6 strategic goals, for which he demands Netanyahu approve a plan of action:
Bring the hostages home (Netanyahu is widely suspected of stalling negotiations).
Topple Hamas rule, demilitarize the Gaza Strip and gain Israeli security control [over Gaza].
Alongside that Israeli security control, “create an international civilian governance mechanism for Gaza, including American, European, Arab and Palestinian elements — which will also serve as a basis for a future alternative that is not Hamas and is not [Palestinian Authority President] Abbas.”
"Return residents of the north [who were evacuated due to Hezbollah attacks] to their homes by September 1, and rehabilitate the western Negev [adjacent to Gaza, targeted by Hamas on October 7].”
"Advance normalization with Saudi Arabia as part of a comprehensive process to create an alliance with the free world and the West against Iran and its allies.”
"Adopt a framework for [military/national] service under which all Israelis will serve the state and contribute to the national effort.”
Interestingly, the date coincides with a planned mass protest on June 9th.
As for whether Gantz will actually leave if Netanyahu refuses:
I don't know. To lead a party and be Chief of General Staff you have to have certain qualities. And yet Gantz made some pretty dubious decisions that most would call him "gullible" for. Primarily him agreeing to a unity government with Netanyahu in 2020 which Netanyahu deliberately dissolved to prevent Gantz from becoming Prime Minister.
Setting an ultimatum though, certainly puts him in a difficult position in terms of his ability to backtrack.
I'd guess a low probability of the war cabinet going through with his ultimatum, and a moderate probability of Gantz quitting if Netanyahu refuses. I certainly see some ways in which he can crawl back in.
Minister lists 6 key goals including alternative to Hamas rule in Gaza, return of hostages, Saudi normalization; Netanyahu's office: He should issue ultimatums to Hamas, not the PM
Not strong on ID-ing fleeting systems of this sort. Anyone knows if this is a LIDS or MADIS?
Anyway, that's probably the "boots on the ground" that were promised to not be there. Unfortunately the reality is the US will have to defend its pier somehow and for now it has better C-UAS capabilities than the IDF, particularly against smaller categories.
Wonder what the RoE on that C-RAM is. More often than not it's going to be pointed in the general direction of an Israeli populated area.
A while ago Egypt decided to shut down its border crossing to aid transfers until further notice.
Global silence about that, with the exception of the US which realized the inherent difficulty of supplying aid across a hostile frontier when they admitted they believe the aid they transferred via the pier hasn't reached the desired destination. Or in other words, it reached Hamas.
Israel, however, reopened its Kerem Shalom crossing again and managed to transfer aid directly to merchants.
Despite the transfer being only a fraction of the amount Egypt delivers, around 50 compared to Egypt's "hundreds" (one Gazan said 55 vs 700, I do not know if it's a daily or single event). That shipment alone collapsed the food prices and now they're at a level similar to or sometimes lower than Israel's domestic food prices.
I guess it shows the difference between a calculated, non-advertised work done by professionals, and half assed work done for political points.
Several months ago, Israel announced a new strategy to overwhelm Gaza with far more than the necessary amounts of aid in order to gradually flood the markets and collapse black markets selling food at exorbitant prices.
The reported daily calorie transfer to Gaza is about 3,200 per person, which should compensate for wastage, supply disparities, and acts of theft.
ICC prosecutor Karim Khan explains his application for arrest warrants for both sides of the conflict in a 30 minute interview.
For the sake of everyone's time, I will summarize, but only for Israel (as there is no need to prove again Hamas's crimes):
Arrest warrants for Israel are issued on allegations of:
Starvation as method of war.
Extermination.
Targeting of civilians.
The crimes are explained as:
Starvation - going back 17 years, not just 2024. Main argument is Gazans rely excessively on humanitarian aid, and Israel imposes restrictions on entry of goods. (IMO, will be very difficult to achieve conviction, as it would be difficult to attribute to Israel).
Extermination - any killing regardless of intent. No charge of genocide as that requires intent.
Targeting of civilians - no elaboration.
Khan says significant infrastructure necessary for maintenance of humanitarian supplies has been destroyed throughout the war. It seems he does not attribute blame for the act (again, no need to elaborate on Hamas's actions), but asserts that Israel at least has a responsibility to restore these even at the risk of its soldiers and citizens. (IMO, also a very difficult argument to make in a court).
Some of the evidence collected is attributed to UN agencies like UNRWA. (IMO, completely void argument in a court. UNRWA is a widely recognized terrorist organization and cannot be used as a reliable source of information if the court is to be objective).
In the context of 7th - 29th of October, Karim Khan says humanitarian aid infrastructure and capabilities must have been restored, and I quote "If tanks and soldiers can go in, why can't they guard aid convoys?". (IMO, misses an essential understanding of warfare that frontlines e.g. Ukraine, rarely exist elsewhere, and warring parties strive toward multi-dimensionality. This argument would collapse quickly when presented to subject matter experts).
Application for warrants said to be made with above average levels of evidence, and with belief in a high probability of conviction, asserting that for a court like the ICC, certainty of conviction is important.
Khan denies allegations of double standards and application of moral equivalence.
Khan says Israel has a good justice system but is not appropriately applied in the context of Gaza and J&S toward establishment of accountability in these territories. He advises Israel to utilize that system to enforce the local laws, but is convinced it is not the case at the moment.
Khan cites wide recognition of a state of Palestine, by 141 UN members, as the source of the ICC's jurisdiction over Israel. (IMO, solid argument, likely to hold in court).
Using the same logic as #9, Khan claims Israel is bound by the Geneva Convention (it technically only applies in the context of at least 2 warring states).
IDF recovers bodies of 3 hostages in northern Gaza. This further reiterates that the war is far from over, with about half the hostages still in Hamas hands. As evident here, the IDF will likely need to investigate over months in cleared areas to find hostages' bodies.
Military says it recently got intel confirming Orión Hernández Radoux, Hanan Yablonka, Michel Nisenbaum were kidnapped near Mefalsim, murdered there or en route to Gaza in Hamas onslaught
www.timesofisrael.com
ICJ rules IDF must halt Rafah operation, demonstrating exactly how to make states disregard you.
The ruling relates to an additional request submitted by South Africa some ten days ago for provisional measures that would order Israel to stop all its military operations in the Gaza Strip.
According to a BILD report, Shani Louk (German national and famously paraded half naked in Gaza) and 3 other hostages were found dead in a building financed by Germany.
Being an UNRWA building, it came equipped with infrastructure such as tunnel shafts, exactly like the 10 meter deep one where the hostages' bodies were found.
Israeli military and others indicted for war crimes by International Court. Several Israeli leaders are identified, as is Hamas (CNN) Accusations are denied by Israel but Israel declines to officially defend against those charges. While we have seen Israeli’s position, we’ve also seen and heard their actual behavior in videos, etc. it’s time to put up or shut up on these issues. Without a formal defense, without real discovery we are left with nothing. Interestingly let’s see if Netanyahu goes to a country that will extradite him.
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