I agree. Somebody is doing a disservice to the Ukrainian cause by spreading fake news. To sabotage the Ukrainian press service, they couldn't do it better. I even think that it's a possibility.
The Ukrainian spokepersons and Zenlensky sometimes say things that are not convincing or not very smart but they are not morons neither. They know that lying on something that could be easily proven false the next day would damage their reputation.
Note that not a single official has repeated these fake news. (At least AFAIK, I can't read everything all the time.)
I can understand that they lie on the strikes on the Zaporizha power plant or on Belgorod. I think that they have their own reasons to strike these illegitimate targets. But they have obvious reasons not to take responsibility for them. Even thought nobody is fool.
Inventing the destruction of Russian aircraft in their base is another thing. I start to think that their press center is not fully under their control and lack professionalism completely. One journalist wants to be the first to report some fantastic breaking news and we get these depressing rebuttals by free-lancers.
IMO, weapons delivery should be conditioned to professional reporting LOL.
With this particular case, I don’t think they are doing a disservice, or not necessarily. For example, if you look at various comments following the posts/reports suggesting that likely no airframes (and airfields) were affected at all in this attack, you would find many along the lines of “that’s strange”, “quit spreading Russian propaganda”, “Russians must have moved in decoys in place of the destroyed jets for the satellite photos”, and other completely ridiculous stuff. They take what was said as a given and have been conditioned to see anything else that disagrees as Russian propaganda. It is rather amazing to me. In addition, there are a lot of people that are completely blind and refuse to apply even little critical thinking. Once these reports hit Twitter, Facebook, Reddit, and other social media, they create an eco chamber that has been shaped for a long while now by other numerous false reports of Russian incompetence (not that there is any lack of real incompetence on the Russian side) and misfortunes, such as fighting with shovels, low morale, almost ape-like strategy, etc. People eat it up and wait for second and third servings. Also, consider that a great number of individuals don’t even see the applied post-analysis that “debunks” the initial reports completely at most or cast a great deal of doubt at the very least; they only see the initial report of “great success”. Furthermore, it is intended to keep Ukraine issue at the top of the front page. This latter strategy is clearly backfiring now. After my post the other day, I googled the topic (in various ways) and found only one media outlet among my daily readers that reported on the subject citing the SBU sources. Even that skipped by me somehow (definitely wasn’t the front page material). But there still were reports by CNN, BBC, Business Insider, and a couple of others from the quick glance, all citing sources from the “Ukrainian secrete service”.
Now consider no such “great success” reports existed. What would the general public be seeing? Basically depressing stuff (depending on one’s emotional involvement) like failed counteroffensive, severe lack of manpower (but no lack of draft dodgers), an acute shortage of ammunition and equipment, low morale and despair within the ranks, constantly losing territory (often at an increasing pace), lack of proper defence lines, the existing lines are likely to collapse if nothing changes, gliding bombs erasing positions, very questionable prospects (including all, short, medium, and long term), and so on. The list is
very long, really. There have to be some “victories” thrown in and that is exactly what they do. Personally, I do not see it as a particularly smart strategy, but their options are quite limited, so they stick with what they have.
Then, all the “twitters” and “glory to Ukraine” aside, there is internal audience that pretty much reads (some of) the same things but at a greatly reduced volume (due to self- and otherwise censoring), living with power outages, occasional drone or missile flying by, occasional (if not daily, depending on the location) explosions, visible growth of cemeteries, likely distinctly visible and increasing number of amputees or otherwise mutilated vets, “mobilization” with excessive use of force in the middle of the streets and other public spaces, and so on. Basically, they live what we read about. Of course, there is Zelensky with his nightly addresses, which are pretty bonkers more often than not. But that is about it for (still invented) positivity. There must be some “peremogas” - that is, victories in Ukrainian - and these reports are intended to provide just that. The attacks on the Russian refineries serve the exact same purpose: they do from very little to nothing at all for the Ukrainian effort to recapture the territory or, at least, stop or weaken the Russians. In all likelihood, they are, in fact, counterproductive. Not only these attacks increase anti-Ukrainian moods within the Russian society (this is a speculation on my part, but I doubt I am wrong), they also have a positive effect on the balance sheet of Russia via an increase in oil prices, and raise tensions with the Americans in particular. Via great unpopularity of significant hike of gasoline prices during the election cycle, which is always a very sensitive issue in the US and more so now while they (like mostly everyone else) are trying to keep inflation in check and hoping to reduce interest rates, these attacks are directly benefiting Trump and the Republicans and, hence, doing a great disservice to Ukraine itself. I am sure that the American policy makers also see these as an unnecessary and counterproductive escalation, which is why they expressed their concerns publicly numerous times now. Ukrainian decision makers figure otherwise though, so these will, I am sure, continue until Russia adapts, which it most certainly will. Daily shelling of Belgorod, Kursk, and other areas of Russia that pretty clearly (to me) lack any significance as far as war effort is concerned and have no military objectives serve the same purpose, which is poorly thought out (in this case internal) propaganda effort. I know many would disagree with that and that is fine. In this case internal simply because this shelling would not be ok with many within the international community, which is why there is no reporting on the subject, though this had become a daily occurrence. There are some mentions here and there, of course, usually a short paragraph within some article citing Russian officials. Note that when these same news organizations and journalists write an article that goes out of line with the Ukrainian statements, they are rather quickly accused by the very Ukrainians for pushing Russian propaganda and talking points. It’s insane, but it is also the way it is. I can clearly see lack of reporting for this very reason, but it is changing.
Anyway… This isn’t some mistake or a random outburst by an “anonymous source”, but a (poorly) planned and calculated propaganda efforts by the top Ukrainian officials within military and security departments. In my opinion, there is no better explanation for it.
The most amazing thing to me is that during interviews, when a representative, be it Budanov, Zelensky, Kuleba, etc, starts talking complete nonsense and really bizarre stuff, the interviewers don’t even blink and just nod their heads. Remember when Zelensky reached the culmination and stated in an interview to… NBC or CBS, if I recall correctly, that Russians cut babies’ (or was it children’s? pretty sure it was babies’) heads off? I haven’t seen anyone saying “wait a second…” about it. I mean it is what it is.
As for your last paragraph, media outlets report what is being told by the officials and anonymous sources. Professional outlets do not speculate wether it is true or not, they just report what was actually said officially or otherwise. This is, in part, what propaganda is based on: in other words, media does not have to be state controlled or even to be within the reach of one’s control for it to work. As long as there is some trust involved, of course, which Ukrainians have little to spare of, imo.
In the meantime, they, on Syrsky’s efforts, removed demobilization and rotation from the mobilization law in Ukraine. It only passed the first reading yet, but I doubt there will be changes in this regard. That was the most advertised part of the entire idea behind it, if anyone recalls. Ukrainian Pravda as a source:
Комитет Верховной Рады по вопросам нацбезопасности и обороны исключил положение о демобилизации и ротации военнослужащих из правительственного законопроекта о мобилизации, который готовится ко второму чтению.
www.pravda.com.ua
Overall, I have no idea personally what the thought process is there. Let’s say they pass the law tomorrow. Is there any reasonable expectation that tens or hundreds of thousands would turn up voluntary? That is highly unlikely (like extremely unlikely), in my opinion. If the numbers do not turn up, how many “mobilizators” would they need to find these people and forcefully bring them in? Quite many, I would think. Then, let’s say that the numbers do turn up, voluntarily or otherwise. What are they planning to equip them with, assuming they find money to pay them to begin with? Then they talk about the upcoming great Russian offensive within the next 2-4 months, which I am not sure about personally (
@Feanor, are there any indicators that this is going to take place?). How are they planning to train this newly mobilized personnel to have them ready in time for that offensive? While they obviously need men, there are surely way more questions about the mobilization they are trying to push through (for months now)
www.thedefensepost.com
