Middle East Defence & Security

2007yellow430

Active Member
Yet no western country has fought a war without heavy reliance on air power - so they also all lack humanity and didn't care about the enemy population? If so, why do we apply a unique standard to Israel?
because of the severity of the response. Additionally times have changed. This sort of behavior is no longer tolerated. That’s why.

Art
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
because of the severity of the response. Additionally times have changed. This sort of behavior is no longer tolerated. That’s why.

Art
I do not see the logic in that statement. Morals are advanced on the government level over time, but morality does not evolve like humans do. It's just that societies have managed to more effectively root out the immoral. So no, the moral compass hasn't changed. The US of the early 2000's to mid 2010's is very similar to Israel of today. I will accept this double standard as an expression of hypocrisy.

This is a good read:

https://scholarship.law.vanderbilt.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1259&context=vjtl
it supports what I’ve been saying.,over protection of troops causes civilian casualties.
This actually negates pretty much everything you've said so far.
You said Israel intentionally starves Palestinians and murders them for fun, but this study shows the exact opposite of that - a high level moral debate that proposes self sacrifice to safeguard a civilian population.
 

2007yellow430

Active Member
I do not see the logic in that statement. Morals are advanced on the government level over time, but morality does not evolve like humans do. It's just that societies have managed to more effectively root out the immoral. So no, the moral compass hasn't changed. The US of the early 2000's to mid 2010's is very similar to Israel of today. I will accept this double standard as an expression of hypocrisy.


This actually negates pretty much everything you've said so far.
You said Israel intentionally starves Palestinians and murders them for fun, but this study shows the exact opposite of that - a high level moral debate that proposes self sacrifice to safeguard a civilian population.
I’ve said none of that. Stop lying.

Art
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I’ve said none of that. Stop lying.

Art
Is this not your quote?
The amount of dead civilians, the restrictions on food aid. That’s why the USA is thinking about withholding weapons. The world is watching. 1.5M people starving is the last straw. I’m sure you’ll respond with no we aren’t. But you are and it’s the last straw. Watch what happens.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group


US administration clearly feel the pressure internally (especially from some Democrat constituents) and Internationaly even from its closest allies. The way of Israel conducting operation in Gaza has rattled even some of its closest allies. However Biden Administration decision on giving more weapon to Israel as usual give conflicting massages from US on Israel-Palestinian standing.

It's interesting development, even tough some in Israel seems continue believe, in the end US and other in West will cave in to their (Israel) demand on usual practices.


Sunak can call criticism and investigations, but like US is sidelining weapons shipment or co-op with Israel as separate issues. For some in Israel it is still indicating that US and UK only talks harder, but not going further. Or is it ? Well take your pick, cause it can be both ways.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
BTW: as an American Jew I know more than a few Jewish folks who are very angry at the Jewish gover’s response, I don’t think we are anti-semit.

Art
I didn't call you an antisemite. Still, believing in propaganda created by antisemites does none any good.

US administration clearly feel the pressure internally (especially from some Democrat constituents) and Internationaly even from its closest allies. The way of Israel conducting operation in Gaza has rattled even some of its closest allies. However Biden Administration decision on giving more weapon to Israel as usual give conflicting massages from US on Israel-Palestinian standing.
During election season there is always some greater than usual dissonance between public policy and practical policy. That is, difference between what's said and done. The hard-left camp is substantial so when it comes to elections, it would be unwise to dismiss them. Morally that's a different story but still. To appease them, he must show "muscle" against the US's traditional allies and appease some of its traditional enemies.
For example the slowdown of aid to Ukraine and widely reported limitations on Ukrainian strike options. It was common knowledge the US has limited Ukraine from striking deep in Russia with American-made weapons from the start of this war, but recently it's much more publicized plus a new demand to avoid targeting Russia's economical and industrial assets - chiefly its refineries. Yet Biden's personal acknowledgement of the need to support Ukraine hasn't really changed. So it's a political game.
Similarly in Israel. For the Progressive (regressive) crowd, Israel-Palestine, and radical Islam in general, are burning topics.
Biden perhaps assumes the US can attack Israel politically with no repercussions and it is at least somewhat true as the Israeli public more or less dumps the whole responsibility for the supposed deterioration of relations on Netanyahu and co, but when it comes to actual material support - the US cannot afford to stop it.
Halting support for Ukraine can be explained in some way that the US has already provided a lot and exhausted much of its short term capabilities, plus the EU having to step in in a greater capacity for a multitude of reasons. But halting support for Israel would effectively signal to all the US's allies that they can be abandoned at a whim. This is particularly important for countries like Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Philippines and Australia vs China, Saudi Arabia and UAE vs Iran, baltics and nords vs Russia, and of course any west-aligned nations in Africa.

Although there isn't a single member of the current government I can support or even deem competent, I am confident that this is truly their assessment of the situation, as it is also mine:

Benny Gantz, member of war cabinet, leader of the largest party and coalition partner due to the war, has demanded elections be set to September. Unlike other opposition figures, Gantz has serious weight and together with the coalition's defense minister Yoav Gallant - they may be able to pull some critical coalition support to achieve an early election. In Israel, once the coalition lacks a 61-59 seat majority, for any reason, an early election may be called. As explained in another thread, there is also instability stemming from a recent court decision to immediately draft all eligible ultra orthodox Jews and halt some key government subsidies for them.
One possible scenario is an ultra orthodox camp support for a new election in order to gain favor with the secular public and partnering with Gantz to achieve a relaxed conscription law and renewal of some subsidies.


After Iran promised retaliation for the assassination of several high ranking figures, Israel decided to mobilize reserves to beef up its air defenses.
Previously, when Qasem Soleimani was assassinated Iran retaliated strongly. They shot down their own plane, full of passengers, but it was retaliation nonetheless. With Iran's array of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as armed drones, they can attempt to overwhelm Israeli air defenses, sneak a missile to a sensitive site as they did in Eilat, or attack American or Kurdish targets closer to them. But I estimate Iran will avoid showing muscle and prefer to attack less defended assets like embassies and diplomatic missions in Europe and/or South America.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
From IDF's telegram
> Israel Defense Forces: In accordance with the situational assessment, it has been decided that leave will be temporarily paused for all IDF combat units. The IDF is at war and the deployment of forces is under continuous assessment according to requirements.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Current debate in the Israeli High Court of Justice on humanitarian assistance reveals that 2 of the 3 water pipelines to Gaza were damaged by Hamas. One of them is being repaired, another, damaged on October 7th, is under examination on whether to repair it - a few days process.
It was also said that despite the worse humanitarian situation, approximately 200-300 thousand people are currently living in northern Gaza despite IDF's recommendation to move south toward the humanitarian zone.
They raise certain obligations but generally seem lacking answer on how to fulfill these in practice. The major underlying issue is that Hamas still poses too much of a threat to properly run aid operations. This requires significant manpower.

In the meantime, tensions with Iran spiked after the assassination. It seems very unlikely to me that Iran will operate alone without reinforcing itself with Hezbollah. Striking with its own arsenal or Hezbollah's arsenal separately gives Israel the capacity to respond to each one. But together their effect will be much greater. For this reason the IDF seems geared toward entry to Lebanon.

Entering Lebanon will pose a significant challenge in 4 main aspects, relevant for the first stage of the war:
1. Countering Hezbollah's arsenal by preemptively destroying its from above.
2. Countering Hezbollah's arsenal by intercepting threats.
3. Countering Hezbollah's attempts to infiltrate into Israel similar to Hamas's October 7th attack.
4. Clearing the path for a maneuvering force and affording sufficient force protection.

To that end, I propose a strategy in which:
1. Israel resumes strikes against Iranian targets with higher intensity but below the threshold of assuming a 'first strike'.
2. Employ the same strategy against Hezbollah with particular aim toward storage facilities, bordering forested launching zones, and other disruptive objectives.
3. Maintain total tempo below the threshold of attention of global media.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
I thought the investigation would take long, months at least, based on past experience. It seems that due to the severity of the incident the IDF expedited every process of the investigation and published the conclusions already, and took disciplinary measures.

Two senior officers were dismissed:
1 brigade HQ commander with the rank of colonel and his brigade's fire support commander with the rank of major.
Several more were reprimanded.

IDF Fact Finding and Assessment Mission report below:

Visual aid:
 
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koxinga

Well-Known Member
I thought the investigation would take long, months at least, based on past experience. It seems that due to the severity of the incident the IDF expedited every process of the investigation and published the conclusions already, and took disciplinary measures.
But is that correct and in accordance to IDF military justice system?

The Joint Chiefs of Staff's Fact-Finding and Assessment Mechanism (FFAM) seems to be an internal IDF board. There are no mention or comments by Military Advocate General's Corps/ Military Police Criminal Investigation Division (“MPCID”) etc.

While I see the demands by international parties for external review is political, the entire process seems rushed, almost trying to demonstrate to international parties that "it's done, we've dealt with it, let's move on"

I am no lawyer but the wordings said they were terminated for violation of SOP, as if one is firing an employee for neligence. But this is no simple employment matter; there are possible criminal and definitely civil liabilities involved.

Does being "dismissed" mean they are no longer IDF or a simply removed from their positions and further trials will take place?

After being presented with, and considering the investigation's findings, the IDF Chief of the General Staff decided that the following command measures will be taken: the brigade fire support commander, an officer with the rank of major, will be dismissed from his position. The brigade chief of staff, an officer with the rank of colonel in reserve, will be dismissed from his position. Additionally, the brigade commander and the 162nd Division commander will be formally reprimanded. The IDF Chief of Staff decided to formally reprimand the commander of the Southern Command for his overall responsibility for the incident.
Second, the entire "report" is remarkably thin by any definition. Effectively, it is just two paragraphs. Of course, it was going to be mistaken identity/not following procedure, but what happened? what procedures? what was their state of mind? etc.

I would rather IDF take their time and not be rushed into conclusions. Throwing two soldiers under the bus isn't the right response.

 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
But is that correct and in accordance to IDF military justice system?

The Joint Chiefs of Staff's Fact-Finding and Assessment Mechanism (FFAM) seems to be an internal IDF board. There are no mention or comments by Military Advocate General's Corps/ Military Police Criminal Investigation Division (“MPCID”) etc.
The FFAM is a tool used by the MAG to provide the relevant expertise for the investigation.
If the MAG deems the FFAM's work less credible, it can choose to ignore it. As such, it in a way regulates the FFAM, making it in the IDF's best interest to keep the FFAM as objective as it can, lest the MAG choose a different professional body to provide relevant expertise - something it definitely has the authority to do.

And last time I checked, the MAG is subordinate not to the IDF, but to Israel's civilian justice system.
So I think the hierarchy and high level methodology here is sound.

While I see the demands by international parties for external review is political, the entire process seems rushed, almost trying to demonstrate to international parties that "it's done, we've dealt with it, let's move on"
It is certainly reasonable to reach some conclusions decisively very quickly - IF the general staff HQ finds it appropriate to withdraw all investigated personnel during military activity, which normally may not be the case. From what I gather combat units work in 3 month cycles but it seems those were pulled straight away.

The IDF is a bureaucracy machine like the rest of them, but it has shown incredible organizational flexibility and an ability to get things done if you can push the right buttons. An international incident and the war cabinet breathing down your neck sounds like some solid button pushing.

Strike officers are trained primarily by their air force which objectively is more professional than the "green" army. Their culture of frequent post-mission debriefs likely contributed greatly to the swiftness of this investigation. Still, it these are just preliminary conclusions and measures. I find it highly unlikely that the MAG just ended the case here.
While the civilian justice system employs the concept of a plea bargain in part to hasten long procedures, there isn't really a military equivalent, to the best of my knowledge.

Does being "dismissed" mean they are no longer IDF or a simply removed from their positions and further trials will take place?
The latter. The soldier will be removed from his position and any future promotion or role will require a debate in the context of his dismissal. I think dismissal is the correct way forward.
The Nahal brigade has been in the fight since October 7th and prosecuted successfully many CAS missions over that time, likely hundreds if not thousands. The IDF has also reportedly successfully coordinated the movement of over 6,000 such convoys throughout the war. This significant contribution to the security of everyone in the region - Israelis and Palestinians alike, should be the context for a relatively light punishment, although dismissal isn't a light punishment by any means.


Second, the entire "report" is remarkably thin by any definition. Effectively, it is just two paragraphs. Of course, it was going to be mistaken identity/not following procedure, but what happened? what procedures? what was their state of mind? etc.

I would rather IDF take their time and not be rushed into conclusions. Throwing two soldiers under the bus isn't the right response.
Well you got the "for public media" summarized version. Obviously an investigation going into the details of a strike procedure will contain a lot of classified information. So giving just the conclusions is a good idea as it is easily presentable.
The MAG later publishes much more detailed reports so I am sure that we will see those later on, and I'm sure the investigation into the finer details is still ongoing.
A past investigation into a similar high profile event also lasted for 4 years but preliminary details were released within months of the incident.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
IDF found and retrieved the body of Elad Katzir while operating in Khan Younis. His body was found buried, so likely they operated based on precise intel.
He was shown alive in Islamic Jihad's videos, meaning he was later executed.
Many more hostages are still inside and require rescuing. The war cannot end until all are retrieved.

 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Biden reportedly asks to "just implement a 6-8 week ceasefire".
Perhaps Biden does not understand just how much this costs Israel, so the least he can do is authorize another aid package. Every week of reservist callup costs Israel billions of dollars.
A call for a ceasefire is also completely detached from the current reality in Gaza, where only one brigade operates at the moment in a low intensity setting.

Also Iran says they'll attack Israel directly.
Last time Iran hyped up its retaliation was in the context of the assassination of Soleimani. Iran retaliated by shooting down a commercial plane taking off from Tehran. That sure showed us.
Iran does have an ability to hurt Israel but there are many reasons to believe Iran will either back down slowly or severely limit its response.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Apparently Indonesia just wants Israel to help it join the OECD in exchange for normalization. Anonymous source so take it with a grain of salt but no demand for a "4 state solution" to be seen.

 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

This is old stories has been squash by Indonesian officials more than a month ago. Seems some in Israel so desperate to shown the world, that Muslims nations still want to 'normalize' with Israel, after they bomb and kill teens of thousands Palestinians.

No..Now some in Israel become more 'knowledgeable' on Indonesian politics, then Indonesian them selves. Spreading rumours and 'lies' shown how desperate Israel has become. The reality that no administration in Indonesia can survive, if they normalize with Israel after this, is not real. The delusional thinking from Israel on Muslim nations, is the reality.

The price for normalisation from Muslim Nations is Palestinian statehood. Only Israel that keep that delusional believe otherwise.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
There is a Palestinian statehood. What do you think Gaza was between 2007-2023? Or J&S to this day?
They have one in Gaza, one in J&S, and another in Jordan albeit they failed to massacre the Hashemites there so they're temporarily under foreign rule.

Besides, was it suicide for Indonesia to have defense trade with Israel?
This is a fun historical example:

And a very recent one:
1712849037478.png
 
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