The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Apparently Russian SAM operators after all. It appears they filmed themselves doing it... interestingly enough it appears they were trying to hit a Ukrainian UAV that was in the area, but shot down a friendly aircraft instead. This is slightly more logical then straight friendly fire, but it's still embarrassing, especially when one considers the ugly pattern. And of course it suggests Ukraine is doing this on purpose. So maybe medals for them after all?

Crazy stuff! Two posts down there is a map indicating where the missiles were supposedly fired from.

So is it incompetence? Is it hard or impossible to distinguish between various aircrafts (and one like this in particular) on the monitor/radar?

I guess if UA can out wait RU shooting down all their assets, they have a chance here.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Crazy stuff! Two posts down there is a map indicating where the missiles were supposedly fired from.

So is it incompetence? Is it hard or impossible to distinguish between various aircrafts (and one like this in particular) on the monitor/radar?

I guess if UA can out wait RU shooting down all their assets, they have a chance here.
Not without another major step up in military aid they don't. Ukraine is running low on more or less everything. They don't have the APCs/IFVs to keep their infantry mechanized at this rate. They're losing MBTs at an unsustainable rate, and they're running out of munitions across the board. This is a hungry war, and the west hasn't fed enough into their end of the machine for some time. This is why after losing Avdeevka Ukraine just lost Stepovoe and is in the process of losing Severnoe and Lastochkino. Meanwhile they also lost Pobeda between Mar'inka and Konstantinovka, and now Russian forces are assaulting Krasnogorovka. Some of these pushes won't work out, but some will. The more aid is delayed the more of them will succeed, and the more ground Ukraine loses. Worse yet, if you're low on munitions, you take more casualties. You can keep the front line solid with ammo, or you can keep it solid with bodies. And Ukraine is running low on both. Ahead are unpopular and unpleasant decisions about mobilization efforts, and even if that US aid package comes through, it won't be enough to turn tide by far. At best it can stabilize the front again, for a while.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Blast from the past. For a few days there were rumours about this guy being killed in Spain, a few denials and a few confirmations. It has now been confirmed, it appears: the guy that was killed was the defected Mi-8 pilot.

The pastel-hued village where Russian pilot Maksim Kuzminov settled on the coast of Spain must have seemed a world away from the war he thought he had escaped last year when he defected to Ukraine. But the discovery of his bullet-riddled body last week appeared to deliver a menacing new signal from Moscow that those who cross the Kremlin — no matter how far they flee from the war’s front lines — should never consider themselves safe.

Kuzminov was killed in a barrage of gunfire and then run over with his own vehicle by assailants who then used the car to escape, according to Spanish authorities, Ukraine security officials and Spanish media reports.[…]

Russia’s ability to carry out lethal operations beyond its borders was believed to have been substantially eroded by waves of expulsions of Russian spies from the country’s embassies. Europe alone has expelled more than 400 suspected Russian intelligence officers since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, decimating its spy networks across Europe.

Kuzminov’s killing showed that Russia retains some capabilities in Europe and has found ways to adapt, officials said.



The guy turned out to be quite dumb (was also my first impression when I saw his pic). Amplified by the fact there is quite an extensive Russian criminal network in Spain, which is widely known (I think?). Not sure how I feel about it either. Deserter is one thing, especially one based on ideological reasons (and in this war in particular, for both sides); defector is another and, if memory serves me right, his two comrades that traveled with him were not aware of the plan and were shot dead by the UAF upon arrival because they tried to fight back. So he was cleanly eliminated by being shot and driven over with his own vehicle, no explosions or collateral damage.

A few more details on the case without paywall:



Ona separate note. Below are some quotes from an article about why the Ecuador deal didn’t work out, which has now been confirmed by the minister of foreign affairs and the president:

President Daniel Noboa’s government had agreed to ship old Russian-made equipment to America, which would then divert it to Ukrainian forces fighting the Russian invaders and who were familiar with the old Soviet designs. In return, the U.S. would provide Ecuador with American-made gear it was seeking in its fight against powerful drug gangs. “This is going forward no matter what,” Noboa told Ecuavisa, an Ecuadorean television station, on Jan. 30.

Then Russia stopped buying some of Ecuador’s bananas, one of its most important exports.
Ecuador has now backed down, according to Ecuadorean officials, and none of the Russian-made gear will find its way to Ukraine.

“There is a clear guideline from the president of the Republic of Ecuador that the country will not send any war material to a country in an international armed conflict,” Foreign Minister Gabriela Sommerfeld said Monday in a National Assembly hearing.[…]

The public U-turn by Noboa’s government came after Russian officials announced Friday that they were lifting the banana ban affecting some of Ecuador’s largest producers.

“I’m sure that the Ecuadorean government won’t send arms to a conflict,” Russia’s ambassador to Ecuador, Vladimir Sprinchan, told reporters in Quito the same day.[…]

Choosing sides in this new Cold War is especially difficult if one side or the other retaliates. And the Russians are willing to play hardball, even in an area the U.S. considers its sphere of influence.

Ecuador’s weak spot is agriculture.

Russia banned imports from five of Ecuador’s most important companies after Moscow’s consumer regulator said it found pests in some of the shipments. This was a significant hit for Ecuador, the world’s biggest banana exporter, an industry that collects $3.5 billion in sales each year and employs around 300,000 people. It spread alarm throughout the entire industry. Nearly a quarter of Ecuador’s banana output goes to Russia, around $800 million annually.[…]

Home to about 18 million people, Ecuador had been the only Latin American nation to agree to send to the U.S. its decades-old Russian military equipment—gear the Ukrainians know how to deploy and service—including Mi-17 helicopters and Osa-AKM air-defense systems.

The U.S. was confident the deal would go through. Kevin Sullivan, a senior U.S. State Department official for South America, had said just days ago that the Russian-made equipment would be deployed by Ukrainian forces.



Bananas are a serious business. It may seem funny, but it is. That cited $800M is just under 1% of their GDP. I saw some numbers that indicated even a higher value of that trade.

The banana ban, though, was a real blow for Ecuador, which is around the size of Colorado. It is struggling with a large budget deficit, and finding alternative markets wouldn’t be easy, according to the Fenabe national banana federation. Ecuador ships about 1.7 million boxes a week to Russia.

“We need the Russian market,” said Franklin Torres, the head of Fenabe.


No less important, however:

Some high-ranking officials in the government, including the Noboa family, also have major investments in the banana industry.

The article also outlines that it came as a big surprise to the Americans. Not sure why this is the case because the numbers speak for themselves.

@Feanor, that was more of a joke from me. I just do not see how the Russians can shoot down their own aircrafts at such a rate. I understand mistakes happen, but… I am interested in the questions I asked though and if someone with the experience or knowledge could chime in, I’d greatly appreciate it.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Sounds like the Russians took out an A-50 in another friendly fire incident. Can’t make this stuff up.

Is it out of Patriot range ? Hmmmmmmmm.....
 
Interesting long conversation with two combat vets of the war. I think it's clear that their perspective of the war is very close up and they may be missing some of the key overarching themes, but their experience is certainly insightful. Lots of very interesting tidbits about life as an infantryman in this conflict. I had never heard that Russian artillery ammunition has significantly less fragmentation than its Western counterparts. I wonder whether that is an intentional choice or the result of sub-standard production quality.

 

Vladb

New Member
Hi I’ve been reading the forum for quite some time, it is one of the best public domains to provide a balanced perspective on what is happening with this war.

Just to make a small contribution, there is a recent (post-Avdeevka) and rather detailed interview with the Russian Ministry of Defence Shoigu which is definitely worth a read.

In a way, it is the Russian answer to the now famous Zaluzhny’s article in The Economist.

It is not officially translated into English, but you can use Google Translate to read it in full - click on the languages above the page and choose «Английский» (English).

Сергей Шойгу: операция по Авдеевке войдет в учебники - Интервью ТАСС

A few excerpts, there is much more in the original text about the summer offensive, logistics, Avdeevka etc.:

You mentioned contract workers. Last year, about half a million people entered contract service. How is this process going now?

- Just last year we recruited almost 540 thousand under contract, this allowed us to create a reserve army - 6 divisions. Today these are trained professional troops who truly represent a serious force.

This year, as of today, 50 thousand are already under contract, and they continue to go. Here, of course, we must talk about the mood that exists today in the country, in the army. You know, I still won’t appeal to some nice words or patriotism in this... I will speak the facts. You know that our mobilized people are given leave by decision of the President of Russia. After six months, 14 days, without a road. And we have 270 thousand [used the first part]. Now we are already in the second part of the vacation - another 230 thousand. That is, in total, half a million people went on vacation. Haven't returned from vacation for you know how long? 62 people. And then because of illness or something else.

This suggests that people understand their responsibility, these are already established combat teams that are ready during hostilities, which already represent an organism that carries out tasks.

Is it possible to say that in fact the liberation of Krynok puts an end to that very big Ukrainian counter-offensive?

— Yes, because Krynki, or rather the Kherson direction, is another one of the directions. We are not on high alert there, but, as the commander of the Dnepr group, Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, reported, all cleanup work has indeed been completed . But taking into account the fact that there were a lot of different people in the basements, and recently they were literally, I’m not talking in allegories, crying and asking for evacuation, we, naturally, offered, offer and continue to offer them to surrender. But we haven’t heard such requests for probably a day now. In the last 24 hours, two people showed up, they were asked to surrender, but, unfortunately, they refused.

But in general, along the bank of Krynoki, our observation posts are already there. Here I cannot pass over words of gratitude to our paratroopers, the 810th Marine Brigade, the guys from the 45th Airborne Special Forces Brigade, special operations forces, our aviation, because it was not easy. It was not easy because it was necessary to track the boats, destroy them, and prevent the enemy from building up their forces. The most difficult thing was to work in those conditions when there was constant artillery work from the other bank, and very densely. There was constant surveillance, as soon as one of our people rose somewhere, blows were immediately struck. In general, for understanding, otherwise one gets the impression that Krynki is a village, they concentrated four brigades of the 30th Marine Corps there. These are those who fought in different directions, very strong guys. Some of them were in Mariupol. They were well prepared, trained and armed. Actually, their task was the same breakthrough - there, to Armyansk, Perekopsk, in that direction. Naturally, there were also actions along the Kinburn Spit; they also wanted to gain a foothold to the western coast of Crimea.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Apparently Russian SAM operators after all. It appears they filmed themselves doing it... interestingly enough it appears they were trying to hit a Ukrainian UAV that was in the area, but shot down a friendly aircraft instead. This is slightly more logical then straight friendly fire, but it's still embarrassing, especially when one considers the ugly pattern. And of course it suggests Ukraine is doing this on purpose. So maybe medals for them after all?

Incredible! They see the plane and still fire a missile. But the drone theory makes sens. If Ukrainians sent a drone to lure a Russian missile toward the A-50, this is brilliant.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Are you actually asking? Or is there another point to this? Look at where the downing took place... plenty of links have been provided.
The point being, the RU are seeming happy to claim to have destroyed thier own aircraft at frightening rates. Is it _really_ likely that the RU shot down another fantastically expensive, almost irreplaceable A-50 given the heat that most of come down on the RU AD units in the area after the last FF incident ?

Furthermore, I dont have any insight as to what type of Patriot battery is being used as a roving battery - my understanding is that the different types of munitions have a fair variance in range - and thats assuming that the stated ranges arent being deliberately undersold.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
Incredible! They see the plane and still fire a missile. But the drone theory makes sens. If Ukrainians sent a drone to lure a Russian missile toward the A-50, this is brilliant.
What has me wondering is if Ukraine managed to lure the launch with a drone flying near it how the f*ck did they get the drone that far behind the lines?!
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
It seems Ukraine claim they shot down the A-50 using S-200? Russian A-50 shot down thanks to S-200 – source in Defence Intelligence | Ukrayinska Pravda

In other news: The UK will spend £245 million throughout the next year on a new artillery ammunition package for Ukraine. In addition, 200 Brimstone missiles will be shipped bringing the total number of Brimstone missiles to 1,300.
UK to boost Ukraine's artillery reserves with £245 million munitions package - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

Denmark has followed the lead of the UK, Germany and France and signed a 10-year defense agreement with Ukraine. Denmark signs 10-year security agreement with Ukraine (kyivindependent.com)
Denmark also announced a new defense package recently: Denmark announces $247 million military aid package for Ukraine (kyivindependent.com)
As part of the latest aid package, Denmark will finance the procurement of 15,000 155mm artillery shells.

At 2.3% of GDP, Denmark is the second largest provider of military aid in terms of percentage of GDP.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The point being, the RU are seeming happy to claim to have destroyed thier own aircraft at frightening rates. Is it _really_ likely that the RU shot down another fantastically expensive, almost irreplaceable A-50 given the heat that most of come down on the RU AD units in the area after the last FF incident ?

Furthermore, I dont have any insight as to what type of Patriot battery is being used as a roving battery - my understanding is that the different types of munitions have a fair variance in range - and thats assuming that the stated ranges arent being deliberately undersold.
When you say "the RU" who are you talking about? Remember I don't use official Russian government sources. The sources I have posted don't seem "happy" to admit this at all.

What has me wondering is if Ukraine managed to lure the launch with a drone flying near it how the f*ck did they get the drone that far behind the lines?!
This isn't new. Ukrainian drones have gotten as far as Leningrad region before. On a site note Russian sources suggest that Russian air defenses were engaging an S-200 missile rather then a drone. Ukraine has fired S-200s often into Russian airspace. It usually preceded larger strikes, and seemed to be aimed at probing Russian air defenses.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Oskol Front.

Russian foces continue to inch forward around Sin'kovka. However no decisive changes are taking place. And despite the repeated discussion of a future assault on Kupyansk, this seems to be a fairly remote eventuality.


A Ukrainian Strv-122 (Leo-2A5) somewhere on the Oskol front.


Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Russian forces are inside Krasnoe/Ivanovskoe, contesting the village. Note the road supplying Ukraine's strong point north of Klescheevka and inside Adreevka runs through Krasnoe/Ivanovskoe. If Russia cuts it, it could make pushing Ukrainian forces out of the Klescheevka area easier. There are also reports that Russia captured a significant hill north-north-west of the village, which makes parts of the center hard to hold, as the village lies in a depression. Russian forces are also advancing south-east of the village, threatening the road to Klescheevka directly.


Russian Lancet strike taking out an M109.


A Ukrainian T-64BV destroyed in Bogdanovka. While Russian advances here are stalled, fighting continues.


Avdeevka.

It appears Russian forces have taken the first line of villages west of Avdeevka. They've taken Lastochkino and Stepovoe (finally) and are in the center of Severnoe. It remains to be seen if Ukraine can consolidate their defenses on the Tonen'koe-Berdychi line.


Russian gliding bomb strikes west of Avdeevka.


Russian forces finishing off an abandoned Ukrainian T-64BV near Avdeevka.


A Russian Su-25 over Avdeevka firing off flares.


A Russian Desertcross buggy narrowly dodges a Ukrainian FPV drone.


An allegedly Ukrainian T-64BV destroyed near Lastochkino and another inside Avdeevka.


A Russian T-80BV with a mine trawl and cage armor knocked out near Avdeevka. Note since Russia controls the area, there's a good chance it can be evacuated and repaired. It must be noted that while Russian recover efforts for damaged vehicles have improved they're still doing far less of this then Ukraine.


A rare Ukrainian M1150 AMBV was knocked out near Avdeevka. It's unclear what the vehicle was doing.


A destroyed Ukrainian Humvee in Avdeevka.


More footage of the Bradley, a medical Humvee variant, and various weapons and munitions captured in Avdeevka by Russian forces.


Russian forces hauling away captured vehicles; a Bradley, a T-64BV, a destroyed M113, a relatively intact M113, a BMP-2, and 2 BMP-1s, in Avdeevka.


Russian sources are showing a T-80BV allegedly captured from Ukraine in Avdeevka. Note the tank apparently comes with Pakistani shells. Some have concluded this is fake since the tank apparently carries the Russian Krysha roof cage. One other possibility is that Ukraine captured a Russian tank with Krysha, and then lost it again. At this point virtually all T-80BVs in Ukrainian service are former Russian tanks anyway.


Pushilin, head of the DNR, visits Avdeevka.


Several surviving civilians in Avdeevka.


Pervomayskoe area.

Russian forces dropping munitions from a quadcopter on Ukrainian infantry dismounting from an MT-LB.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Mar'inka-Kurakhovo area.

There are reports that Russia has begun assaulting Krasnogorovka. It's another small town, a de-facto suburb of Donetsk, located north-west of Mar'inka. Note Krasnogorovka is on an elevated area and taking it will make advancing towards Kurakhovo easier. This makes sense in the context of the recent taking of Pobeda, as a continuing effort to secure the flanks of Russian forces in Georgievka.


Russian FAB-1500 strikes against the brick factory in Krasnogorovka.


Russian quadcopter munition drops allegedly near Krasnogorovka.


Russian forces have captured the village of Pobeda and reportedly taken some of the forest lines around the village.


Russia's 255th Rgt attacking in and around Pobeda.


A Ukrainian Leo-2A4 knocked out and abandoned near Pobeda.


A vew of the village of Pobeda taken by Russian forces. A knocked out Leo-2A4 and M113 can be seen. Ukraine lost at least two Leo-2A4s in a failed counterattack there.


South of Novomihailovka Ukraine has reversed a recent Russian gain, pushing Russian forces out of the captured positions. Note this isn't the first such counter-attack, but the overall trend here has been a slow Russian advance.


Two captured Ukrainian strong points near Novomihailovka by a Shtorm-Z element of the 155th MarBde. They show off some captured Ukrainian weapons including some old looking shotguns, a machinegun, and some Javelin missiles. They also show one Ukrainian POW and 3 KIAs. Warning footage of corpses.


A Ukrainian 2S9 destroyed in Novomihailovka.


A Russian BMP-1 (if you can believe it) knocked out and allegedly later destroyed near Novomihailovka.


Russian strikes on Kurakhovo. This small town is reportedly the rear center for Ukrainian forces operating from Krasnogorovka down to Novomihailovka.


Russian forces have started advancing south-west of Ugledar. The front line here has been static for a long time, but with the advance on Novomihailovka and the capture of Pobead there is a real chance that Ugledar will be threatened from the north, and it's possible Russia is also setting the stage to cut off Ugledar from the west.


Vremyevskiy bulge.


Russian forces are continuing to inch forward in this area, slowly retaking pieces of territory lost in Ukraine's summer offensive. However they're a long way from regaining the bulk of the positions, and this doesn't appear to be a priority.


A Russian gliding bomb strike against Ukrainian positions in Urozhaynoe. Another sign that this axis is slowly coming alive.


Rabotino salient.

There are reports of Russian forces in the center of Rabotino. Some reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have withdrawn past the line of tank traps that's usually used to distinguish the Surovikin line. At current rates the Rabotino salient will cease to exist.


Russian forces advancing in the Rabotino salient under fire.


A Russian T-54 (55?) getting hit by a Ukrainian FPV drone in the Rabotino salient.


Allegedly a Marder getting hit by a Lancet strike in Zaporozhye. I suspect this is related to the active fighting in the Rabotino salient.


A Ukrainian M113 getting hit by a Russian FPV drone in the Rabotino salient.


A destroyed Humvee in the Rabotino salient.


Damage from a Russian airstrike in Orekhov. We see multiple destroyed cars, no clear indication of casualties though the video implies there are some.


A look at density of artillery impact craters in the Rabotino salient. This is often referred to as a "moonscape".


Kherson region.

Russian official sources claim Russia has recaptured all of Krynki but even they acknolwedge Ukrainian forces are on this side of the river, just outside the village. Unofficial sources dispute the narrative, claiming Ukraine still holds some parts of Krynki. What is clear is that Russian forces have gained considerable ground in the village.


Strikes.

A Russian strike on Memrik, near Selidovo. Russia has been striking in this area repeatedly. Presumably Ukrainian forces are using this as a staging area before proceeding to Avdeevka.


A Russian strike against a Ukrainian S-300 position. This seems to be a real position based on the secondary detonations.


Interesting footage has emerged of Russian striking an S-300 radar and command post, and also of striking a truck that's described as a Patriot TEL, but it actually appears to be a regular transport truck.


A Russian strike hitting a Ukrainian P-18.


Russia struck an oil refinery in Kremenchug. Reportedly Shahed drones were used.


Ukraine is continuing strikes on Donetsk, hitting a residential building in Petrovskiy neighborhood killing 1 civilian, hitting the Kalinin hospital, a psychiatric facility, and striking a restaurant in Voroshilov neighborhood. Warning footage of corpses.


Ukrainian sources report that Russia has used over 20 DPRK sources KN-23 IRBMs. The munitions have documented accuracy issues.


Ukrainian strikes against Russian personnel forming up in the near-rear continue. There have been 3 such incidents lately.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Other interesting tidbits.

It appears a Ukrainian FPV drone got tangled in netting Russian infantry put over their positions. Both sides have been using improvised net screens against FPV drones.


In an interesting role reversal, Ukrainian FPV operators are striking a Russian Starlink.


Russian 2S3 from the 90th tanks in action. These SP howitzers were once the workhorse of the ground forces but are now relatively rare.


Half of an MT-LB but apparently in working order, in Russian service. It's not clear what happened to the rest of it.


A Russian RBU on truck moving somewhere towards the front.


A Russian T-62MV covered in a second layer of K-1 tiles.


A look at MBTs being repaired at a Russian repair base.


A new Russian AMN-590951 MRAP in the war zone.


A Su-24MR, Ukrainian, modified for carrying SCALP/Storm Shadows. Su-24s are soemwhat problematic for Ukraine to operate since nobody else in Eastern Europe had them, and even in the third world they're quite rare.


A former Czech Kub-M2 TEL in Ukrainian service. Reportedly Ukraine received two batteries of these. Their value is in their compatibility with the Buk systems Ukraine already operates.

 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
When you say "the RU" who are you talking about? Remember I don't use official Russian government sources. The sources I have posted don't seem "happy" to admit this at all.
The RU = The Russians, collectively speaking. "Happy" as in preferable to admitting the UKR shot the plane down.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
This isn't new. Ukrainian drones have gotten as far as Leningrad region before. On a site note Russian sources suggest that Russian air defenses were engaging an S-200 missile rather then a drone.
So, it's possible that Ukrainians fired a S200 at the A-50, then the Russians tried to intecept the S200 with a S400, missed it and hit the plane?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
So, it's possible that Ukrainians fired a S200 at the A-50, then the Russians tried to intecept the S200 with a S400, missed it and hit the plane?
It's a distinct possibility. To be honest, we're in quite a mess as far as figuring it out. It's always possible Ukraine just shot it down with an S-200. It's possible Russia shot it down while trying to intercept the S-200 that was targeting the A-50. It's possible The S-200 was a ground-attack version probing Russian air defenses and Russia shot down the A-50 trying to intercept it. It's even possible there was no S-200, it was a Ukrainian drone and Russia accidentally shot down the A-50 in the process of trying to intercept it.

The RU = The Russians, collectively speaking. "Happy" as in preferable to admitting the UKR shot the plane down.
The sources I've read consider it an embarrassment, worse then if Ukraine would have shot it down.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
There are reports that Ukraine has again shown interest in acquiring Australia older Abrams 1, this has been refused apparently by the Australian government would such a transfer be conditional on Americas approval anyway?
 
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