I doubt the "build overseas" thing is an option. Babcock are pushing the Arrowhead design, which is pretty cheap in basic trim and is already proving a bit of an export success with two other countries picking it up.
There is definitely a need for something built
fast.
So there may be some advantage having first of class built overseas, particularly if it is coming off a hot line. That doesn't mean it has to be, but its that kind of speed that will be the benchmark. Capability, local content, cost would be of course important criteria to be addressed.
If we are talking about a full tender, selection, build, IOC, FOC of a new class, then that is typically a process of 5-10 years. But like planting a tree, the best time to plant it was 15-20 years ago, the second best time is now. So we need to temper any enthusiasm, its a long process. If the Anzac's are tired and outclassed now, in 5 years they will be very tired, and very outclassed. Which is why I think a big expensive Life extension now, is a bit of a waste on the whole fleet, and honestly they were never going to make the 2040's, which is a whole another generation.
Very negative outlook for the Arafuras (cancellation at 6)
Actually I think that is a positive outlook. They could have been stripped and sold off, or cut in half and recycled. For that type of ship 6 isn't bad, an 6 is a good number. We have smaller patrol craft, we need more capable bigger ships. They filled a need in the gap in building at both Osborne and Henderson, and allowed Henderson to build something first before a bigger and more complex ship.
Commitment to a larger surface fleet with an expanded missile loading
This is officially a naval arms race.
Hoping we stear clear of Navantia.
I think he was referring to Poland and Indonesia in regard to the AH140 build. Any new Frigate build won't be called the Tasman class, Why Navantia chose that name is a complete mystery, considering Australia has already allocated the name Tasman to the 3rd Hunter.
I think Navantia may have been working hard behind the scenes to kill Hunter and BAE. Clearly naming the new class after the third of the Hunter class was a real shot across the bow.
I don't think Navantia is in the drivers seat. There have been plenty of offers and deals aired, none of them have gained much interest. They are aggressive in price, build rate and paper specs. However, no one from RAN, ADF, Gov seems to be falling over themselves to seal the deal. They seem to be using Navantia to force the change in plans, not perhaps to select a Navantia ship.
I hear the real dark horse IMO is Japan. They have the designs, the experience, the yard, the entire logistics, and very efficient crewing. A140 would now seem to be a good fit. Honestly I think the important thing is to start building them.
