The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
OK, let's compare the numbers: How many civilians have been killed by indiscriminate or careless strikes on non-military targets by Ukrainian forces since 2022? ==> 100 max.
How many by the Russian forces? (the official number from the UN will suffice)
I don't think the Ukrainian number is that low. How many civilians has Ukraine killed in Donetsk, Gorlovka, and other parts of the Donbas? If you have the numbers, please do share. But far more significantly, the question is one of discrimination; not one of volume. If Russia launches 100 000 strikes, and Ukraine launches 100, Russia's discriminate, using guided weapons against military targets, and Ukraine's don't, who will kill more civilians by volume? Russia. But the picture doesn't change.

Consider the US in Iraq. The US killed many civilians through the use of heavy ordinance in urban areas. But in general the US conducted directed military strikes. The insurgents routinely conducted terrorist attacks. The fact that the terrorists happened to be weak and thus may have killed fewer people doesn't make them less terrorists. In Russian there is a saying "god gave no horns to a cow that likes to headbutt".
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
@KipPotapych In this telethon address, Zaluzhny defused misconception about mobilisation. Many people and journalists make a lot of hubbub about something that Zelensky heard from one general and had repeated out of context another day.

He made clear, from what you posted, that mobilisation rules and methods are decided by the civilian administration, not by the military.


The fact is that the Ukrainian forces can barely stop Russian advances for the moment. However the goal of retaking all the territories up to the 1991 borders is by no means crazy or irrealistic, including Crimea.

The 1991 borders are the legal borders of Ukraine and Ukrain has the right to retake these lands by force. One of the reason why a compromise is impossible is that Russia has no legal basis to claim any of these territories. To do this they have to defeat Russian forces occupying the territories. It looks unfeasible in the current situation. And if the situation doesn't evolve in favour of Ukraine, then of course, they will not reach their goal.

it doesn't mean that they won't. Things can change in the favour of Russia or of Ukraine unpredictably. This war is full of surprising events. It's not something that can be decided by political decisions. Zelensky can't say that they will retake the Donbas and give up Crimea or vice versa. In the same manner, Putin can;t say that he will annex Odessa, Kerson, Zaporyzhya, Lugansk and Donetsk, on top of Crimea. Each of them will get what they will be able to get by the sound of the guns.
I think we are saying the same thing, but, perhaps, giving it different understanding and meaning. So in regard to Zaluzhny talk, he straightened things out by providing reasoning for why the mobilization has to take place, but that it is the civilian administration that makes the decisions; he is there to fight and provide the advice or list the current needs of the army. At this point he is out of that discussion. This conference came as a result of Zelensky creating a lot of confusion by talking about Zaluzhny demanding half a million people to be mobilized to be sent to the front (note that Zaluzhny said that the number is a “military secret” and he won’t talk about it at all), the money they don’t have for the mobilization, etc. At the end of the day, it is a difficult decision that will have real consequences for the public standing of Zelensky because it is he who will be signing the mobilization law. It’s not just the new people themselves that would have to go to war, it is also further cutbacks in government spending that would probably affect infrastructure, healthcare, subsidies, gazillion other things, new borrowing, inflation via printing money, further tax hikes, and so on. None of this is Zaluzhny’s concerns because he made it clear he is there to fight the war; but for Zelensky these concerns are very real and have significant consequences. So his public “reasoning” about the money and everything else, sending the bill for further amendments, etc, was a (very) weak attempt to shift at least some of the responsibility to someone else and Zaluzhny in particular. This is quite evident because Zelensky said he needed more justification from the military for these requests. He made it public. As a result, so did Zaluzhny and he did that very well by providing clear reasoning for everyone to understand. An important aspect of the entire “drama” is that it was, again, Zelesnky who promised all the “winnings” and victory by now, none of which had happened or have any prospects of happening in the near future. In other words, he is screwed politically. His opponents, who are basically losers of the past, understand it better than anyone else and are there to take advantage. Hence, all the political chirping as of late.

Note that Zelensky was talking about the $15B quite openly and asking where the money would come from. This clearly, in my opinion, indicates his understanding (and perhaps direct knowledge that we are not privileged to) that money is becoming a real issue. Of course, it always was an issue, but it is now an issue enough to make it public because he is not able to attract anymore significant external aid.

Now consider the act of mobilization itself. Refer to my previous posts from a few days ago regarding the demographics and population of Ukraine, including the number of people collecting pension, etc. It was reasonably established (or proposed, if you will) in that post that there are likely about 10M work-able adults in Ukraine below the age of retirement. Let’s assume (very optimistically) that half of those people are males. So the mobilization of 500K would directly affect about or up to 10% of male population of the country. That is a great number, speaking lightly. Especially in a country that has severe demographic problems such as Ukraine. Especially where the young adults are being the smallest proportion of the entire population and the desire to bring down the average age of the fighting men is a moot point, really. Of course, the proposed rotation and whatnot implies some men coming back into the “circulation”, but it would be older men having spent years at likely the most violent war of the past decades and brings along all kinds of issues, including PTSD, addiction, and a whole bunch of other nasty things. I do not believe there is a need to discuss this further because the point is probably pretty clear.

The above two paragraphs address the financial and human restrictions on the ability to fight, two of the three I mentioned in the part you quoted. I believe the third, being materiel, is self explanatory.

When I wrote… not sure, but probably about a year ago now, that the Ukrainians really get only this one chance on the offensive, it wasn’t just my “hunch”; it was a fairly well educated opinion and I provided some substance explaining why it was so.

@KipPotapych I addition to what i wrote before: I don't think that there were unilateral decisions by Zelensky or anyone to keep Bahkmut ot Sivierodonesk or any other place at any cost. Even if someone had talked in this sens, on the ground, both the Ukrainian and the Russian armies try to advance as much as possible or to prevent the other to advance as much as possible, no matter where they are. They are pushing each others back and forth without definite target.
While there, perhaps, were no unilateral decisions, there were some decisions that were questionable. There are rumours on the UA social media and among the people “in the know” that Zaluzhny either ordered or at the very least was for pulling troops out of Bakhmut. In spite of this, the final decision was made to keep on fighting, so there must have been advisors who deemed it worth while holding Bakhmut until no longer possible. Hence, the referral to the “fortress of Bakhmut” in the media. This is all hearsay, of course, and we cannot rely on that information. If one follows some of the most prominent active supporters of Ukraine on Twitter and other social media platforms, one probably noted the outrage about Zaluzhny’s dismissal and even more so about Syrsky’s appointment. Some are quite furious (check out Def Mon’s twitter feed). The following article suggests that Zaluzhny was replaced because Zelesnky wanted to see a bit more aggressive approach to the warfare:


But people familiar with the military leadership say that at least part of the split revolves around Zelenskiy’s preference for a bolder military plan, which is at odds with what the more cautious Zaluzhnyi had planned for the months ahead. As if to smooth things over, the day after the commander’s ouster he was honored with a “Hero of Ukraine” award.

It is actually a pretty good article overall, but I do not have the time to summarize it.

Yes, I agree, each party tries to grab as much (or as little) as they can. But the fight for that much (or little) usually comes at a significant cost of human lives. One party, being Russia, is still able to sign contractors and “volunteers” to go to war, or so is being reported. Ukraine, on the other hand, has to forcefully mobilize men and send them to the front, while by Budanov’s admission, as cited by you a few weeks ago, these people aren’t being very useful. Now we may see about half a million more people like that, but likely poorly trained and poorly equipped for obvious reasons.

So yes, I do not see any positive outcome for Ukraine here. To be fair, I do not see a positive outcome even if they win, whatever that means. Us, being the west, sure; but Ukraine… not so much.

I mentioned in my previous post that Ukraine was all in without anything to lose. I believe a good or better parallel here would be what is now called Yolo in the “investment” world. They made a bet going all in buying a whole bunch of options, basically based on the info provided by the Reddit users (ie, “unlimited support” and “as long as it takes”). They were up, but didn’t cash out, and are now down significantly and the probability of coming out with a gain is close to zero, while the chance of breaking even is not that much higher. Yet, they keep throwing every penny they get into this “investment” hoping for the best. The “underwriters” of those options will come out just fine in either case; maybe a little bruised, especially in the ego department, a somewhat changed world, but definitely OK. Things aren’t looking nearly as bright for Ukraine.

I have a few more things to say, but I am out of time (and probably space for this post), so next time. No more Zelensky-Zaluzhny debate though because that’s in the past and makes no difference at this point.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
OK, let's compare the numbers: How many civilians have been killed by indiscriminate or careless strikes on non-military targets by Ukrainian forces since 2022? ==> 100 max.
How many by the Russian forces? (the official number from the UN will suffice)
A catch on the fly, so to speak, as this is the first post I saw once submitting mine. I believe “indiscriminate” would be pretty hard to determine in either case.. The number of the missiles and other means of destruction landing on the Ukrainian side and detecting where they came from would be even more difficult.
 
I don't think the Ukrainian number is that low. How many civilians has Ukraine killed in Donetsk, Gorlovka, and other parts of the Donbas? If you have the numbers, please do share. But far more significantly, the question is one of discrimination; not one of volume. If Russia launches 100 000 strikes, and Ukraine launches 100, Russia's discriminate, using guided weapons against military targets, and Ukraine's don't, who will kill more civilians by volume? Russia. But the picture doesn't change.
If you are referring to the supposed claim of Ukrainian genocide in Donbas, I'm pretty sure the ICJ has vigorously disputed that. As a member of the international community, I'm happy to trust them. Regarding the rest of your comment, I don't know if you've seen what Bukhmut looks like these days, but I'm pretty sure the Ukrainian residents who used to call it home would disagree with you.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
If you are referring to the supposed claim of Ukrainian genocide in Donbas, I'm pretty sure the ICJ has vigorously disputed that. As a member of the international community, I'm happy to trust them. Regarding the rest of your comment, I don't know if you've seen what Bukhmut looks like these days, but I'm pretty sure the Ukrainian residents who used to call it home would disagree with you.
No. I'm referring to the continuing shelling of Donetsk and Gorlovka. I'm confident the civilian death toll is greater then the 100 mentioned above. The subject has been repeatedly covered in my update posts. Genocide by the way would also require intent. There doesn't appear to be any intent on Ukraine's part to commit genocide so the volume of civilian deaths is irrelevant to that argument. Claims of genocide are part of the fig leaf that Russian propaganda used to try and cover for Russian involvement in the '14-'15 war, and it worked about as well (or as poorly) as could be expected.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Oskol Front.

Russian forces have finally managed to context Sin'kovka. They took a patch of woods west of the village, and then entered the village, and are now reported to be in control of ~ a quarter of the village. Of course Ukrainain reinforcements are available in this area and a counter-attack is likely.


Russian forces have gained some ground in the fields west of Novovodyanoe, north of Makeevka. Russian forces will continue to inch forward here but it's a long way to the Oskol river, and we shouldn't expect anything decisive any time soon.


A correction to the recent Russian advance near Tabaevka. The Ukrainian strong-point north of it is still in Ukrainian hands.


A Ukrainian Leo-2A5 gets hit by a loitering munition. The unit operating these has been active on the Oskol front. Note given the angle of impact, and considering the likely munition (RPG) it's unlikely the tank was destroyed.


Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Russian forces have taken the Popovskiy forest, and are advancing on Chasov Yar. However this is a salient, and without control over Bogdanovka and Krasnoe north and south of there it's unlikely they can assault the town. Additionally the hills west of Klescheevka overlook Krasnoe too which means Ukraine's defenses in that area indirectly shield Chasov Yar. Far more dangerous for Ukraine is that Russia appears to have taken Hill 187, north fo the forest. This potentially threatens Ukraine's hold on Bogdanovka. Of cousre without securing the hills north-west of Bogdanovka Russia will also have problems holding the village.


Russian forces have made minor gains around Klescheevka but overall appear to be stalled on the line Kurdyumovka-Andreevka-Klescheevka.


Seversk Bulge.

Russian forces are continuing a creeping push on Belogorovka. After taking some riverside positions north-east of the village, Russian forces have entered the industrial area east of it, and are near the refuse mounds from a local pit mine. In all likelihood those mounds will have to be taken before Russia can take teh village.


Avdeevka.

Russian forces have broken through in northern Avdeevka. They've taken the rail bridge, and allegedly crossed the railroad running through the center of town in multiple locations though confirmation is scarce. Fighting has now shifted to industrial structures in western Avdeevka. If they fall, the Ukrainian MSR running down Industrial Ave. would be cut, and Ukrainian logistics would run through a road in the fields, under Russian fires.


A look at more recent Russian advances in Pervomayskoe. While the main focus has been on Adveevka and Novomihailovka, Russia has made minor but continuing gains in several other areas and this is one of them. Normally it would be much more difficult for Russia to advance here.


Damage after a Russian strike on Ocheretino. It's one of the villages through which Ukrainian supplies and reinforcements enter Avdeevka. It's situated north on the rail line.


A Russian Lancet strike on a Ukrainian MBT near Avdeevka. Note we don't have secondary detonations or flames, so it's likely the tank survived.


Mar'inka axis.

Russian forces are advancing through Georgievka despite the Ukrainian positions on the northern and southern flanks. It's likely this advance is made possible by the weakness of Ukrainian forces in the area as resources are focused around Kupyansk and Avdeevka. Key Ukrainian positions in the village of Pobeda remain.


Novomihailovka.

Russian forces have entered the village from the east and the south. Russian forces are also advancing in the south towards the highway. While some sources are arguing that the village is as good as taken this is not true and Ukrainian counter-attacks are being reported.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Other interesting tidbits.

Ukraine hit Belgorod with another MLRS strike. This is only the latest of a series of Ukrainian strikes against the city. Reportedly 2 WIAs are the casualties. Reportedly Czech Vampir Grad clones are being used.


Some sources are reporting that Ukraine used hypersonic Tsirkon missiles in a recent strike on Kiev. If true, this is it's first combat use.


Two destroyed Ukrainian S-300 TELs. It's claimed they were hiding inside a building that Russia hit.


A recent Russian strike in Varvarovka shows two of the 4 gliding bombs missing the target.


One of Ukraine's most experienced combat pilots, Rykov, with 380 combat sorties, died. He flew on the Su-25 in the 299th Aviation Bde. This comes on the tail of a Russian announcement about downing a Ukrainian Su-25 near Novotroitskoe.


A leaked document has appeared, allegedly documenting Ukrainian losses from the 35th MarBde in the fighting in Krynki. The document alleges 451 "non-returnable losses". This term refers to KIA and heavily WIA that are unlikely to return to the front in any capacity. Given the difficulties the CASEVAC, and the tiny size of the foothold, this isn't unbelievable.


Russian T-62M and MVs mod'22. Note they all have roof cages, and dozer blades. They also have an EW station on one of them. This clearly indicates Russia is using these tanks for frontline combat, not simply as artillery. At least one has already been knocked out.


A Russian T-90S with a roof cage and extra ERA. It may have been a defective tank left over from export contracts, but I suspect it's also likely some export-bound tanks were re-routed to fill losses internally. At least one such tank was already in Russian military posession in the early 2000's.


A Russian BMP-3 without the extra armor package. Russia had ~700 of these in service pre-war, and production has gone on since then. The BMP-3 specifically is likely available in larger quantities now then before the war. This of course can't compensate for the massive losses of BMP-1/2s.


A Russian BTS-4A, and T-72B with K-1 and roof cages. The BTS in particular is very relevant. The Russian military is traditionally short on ARVs.


There is some indication that Russia may have produced a new batch of BMPTs on the T-90 chassis.


It appears Russia has managed to source a quantity of Starlink terminals and is using them on the front lines.


New Indian 155mm shells in Ukrainian hands. How they're getting there is still unclear.


A picture surfaced of allegedly a Ukrainian F-16. However some are alledging it's doctored.


A Ukrainain MT-LB with a BTR-60PB hull and turret used to expand the troop compartment towing something. The MT-LB truly is the workhorse of this war.


Ukraine's 44th Mech riding Pandur APCs. Reportedly Ukraine received 20 of these.


The Supacat HMT SAM has finally been sighted in Ukraine. It's essentially another frankenSAM in the sense that it's AA missiles with relatively short range on a ground chassis.


New Ukrainian loitering munitions, jet powered, have appeared. They're powered by JetCat German engines, and may be the product of Destinus, a company in Switzerland.


Allegedly a new Ukrainian loitering munition mean for long range.


There are reports that Ecuador will be supplying some of it's Soviet-made arsenal to Ukraine. 6 Osa-AKM SAMs are reportedly first in line, though Ecuador also has some Grads, and other Soviet-made crew served weapons.


Some sources are reporting that Russia has hired as many as 15 000 Nepalis to fight in the current war. We've seen footage of foreign fighters in Russian service, but that number strikes me as high.

 

Fredled

Active Member
I don't think the Ukrainian number is that low. How many civilians has Ukraine killed in Donetsk, Gorlovka, and other parts of the Donbas? If you have the numbers, please do share. But far more significantly, the question is one of discrimination; not one of volume. If Russia launches 100 000 strikes, and Ukraine launches 100, Russia's discriminate, using guided weapons against military targets, and Ukraine's don't, who will kill more civilians by volume? Russia. But the picture doesn't change.

Consider the US in Iraq. The US killed many civilians through the use of heavy ordinance in urban areas. But in general the US conducted directed military strikes. The insurgents routinely conducted terrorist attacks. The fact that the terrorists happened to be weak and thus may have killed fewer people doesn't make them less terrorists. In Russian there is a saying "god gave no horns to a cow that likes to headbutt".
I would be surprised that it exceeds 100. When Ukrainians strike civilians, the Russians make sure that we know it. They never shelled urban areas massively as the Russians did. They did hit some populated city centers. But they almost always had a precise target: an administration building, a voting station, the house of a traitor, a hotel housing FSB operatives,...

I disagree totally that volumes don't matter. The US invasion of Iraq was criminal, precisely because it killed a large number of civilians (on top of uselessly killing a large number of Iraqi and American soldiers). Some put the number at 120K. I don't believe this number, but it was certainly several thousands or even in the tenths of thousands. The fact that some Islamo-terrorists targeted muslim civilians in suicide bombings, doesn't diminish the culpability of the US. The US tried not to kill civilians, yet they did. And they knew that they will.

In the same way, Ukrainian war crimes doesn't excuse nor diminish Russian ones. There is a precedent: The Hague Tribunal had indicted many Serbs for war crimes. But they also indicted Kosovars for similar crimes. To a much less extent, I confess, but enough to save the credit of the tribunal. I don't rule out that in the future, after the war, some Ukrainian soldiers will also be indicted for war crimes committed today.

In the current situation, the Russians who bomb Ukraine don't even try to avoid civilian casualties. We can see regularly apartment buildings completely collapsed. Almost every day they kill one or two civilians. Just have a look at the buildings hit by Kh-101 and Shaheds. In the same way, that 99% of their targets are legitimate doesn't mean that the 1% remaining doesn't exists. I put "legitimate" in italic because Russia doesn't have any legitimacy for their attacks. They have no excuse for unintended collateral damages. They have no excuse for inflicted casualties, neither civilian nor military. They don't have to drop a single bomb or shell on Ukraine's soil. Everytime they do, they commit a crime. Even when they don't hurt anyone and don't destroy anything in a strike, they could be charged for illegal use and possession of prohibited weapons.
 

Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
Some sources are reporting that Russia has hired as many as 15 000 Nepalis to fight in the current war. We've seen footage of foreign fighters in Russian service, but that number strikes me as high.
3 weeks ago the Nepali govt asked Russia to stop hiring Nepalese for the war in Ukraine. At this time the number of Nepalese recruited was 500.
There could be as much as 15000 (gross estimate) of mercenaries from non-soviet asian countries, all being classified as Nepalese.

Feanor said:
It appears Russia has managed to source a quantity of Starlink terminals and is using them on the front lines.
It's surprising that there is no better way to find out who is using a terminal. It doesn't seem as easy. It may take time until they find out how.

Feanor said:
A leaked document has appeared, allegedly documenting Ukrainian losses from the 35th MarBde in the fighting in Krynki. The document alleges 451 "non-returnable losses". This term refers to KIA and heavily WIA that are unlikely to return to the front in any capacity. Given the difficulties the CASEVAC, and the tiny size of the foothold, this isn't unbelievable.
I usually don;t trust leaked documents. But it's a plausible number, since they first disembarked there.
 

Fredled

Active Member
KipPotapych said:
mentioned in my previous post that Ukraine was all in without anything to lose. I believe a good or better parallel here would be what is now called Yolo in the “investment” world.
There was a very interesting paragraph on a article refuting some points from the Putin's interview by Tuck Carlson. Unfortunately, I couldn't find this article anymore. Maybe it has been deleted.

They said that in march 2022, Ukrainian delegations met Russian ones to negotiate some form of capitulation. (the article didn't say the word capitulation but that's how I understood it). Then, when the Russian retreated from the Kiev direction, and seemed to be stopped elsewhere, there were no question of capitulation anymore and the talks failed.

This was to refute the claim that Ukrainians cancelled the imminent signing of a peace agreement with Russia because Boris Johnson told them so. IMO, there were no peace agreement but they were ready to talk a way to save their a*rses. And the pledge by the West to considerably increase military support in the shortest terms, gave them one more reason no to.

I don't agree with your parallel with the trading world. Trader always have a choice to play the goofs or be careful. Ukrainians didn't have any choice and still don't.

Their only choices were either capitulation, and if they are lucky, be able to go on exile in a remote country (If Zelensky have some money left in Panama - LOL) or fight on.

They didn't choose to be invaded. They didn't choose to be bombed by thousands of missiles. They are forced to fight a total war. It's not doubling down on a bad bet. It's just that they don;t have any other option, short of leting Ukraine be annexed by Russia. If Ukraine or the West give up the fight, the Ukrainian state disapears, with the uncalculable consequences that will follow.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Oskol Front.

There is an unconfirmed report of Russian advances along the ridge north of Ivanovka. If true, it would generally fall in line with previous efforts. It would also make sense in light of the less-than-spectacular results in Sin'kovka.


A rare BTR-3 was spotted and destroyed near Sin'kovka. We haven't seen these on the front lines in a while and it might indicate a new unit operating in the area.


Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Russian forces are continuing their push west of Khromovo, this time southward towards Krasnoe. Russia's zone of control here is expanding but not decisively.


A failed Ukrainian counter-attack near Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note counter-attacks like this are going to continue, but a much larger effort will be needed to actually reverse Russia's situation in this area.


A knocked out Ukrainian CV90 near Berkhovka, west of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, on the northern side of the town. Note Russia still hasn't hauled away this vehicle despite having control of this area for quite a long time.


Russia's 98th VDV has taken several prisoners west of Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


A Russian BMP-3M with the extra armor package and an EW station.


Avdeevka.

Russia has reached Industrial Ave. and physically cut Ukraine's MSR to the various strong points in southern and eastern Avdeevka. This also cuts off forces in the chemical plant from the rest of the town. Note Rybar is still reporting data that appears to be ~1-2 days behind other sources. This fits with his generally fairly conservative estimates.


As well as cutting the MSR in the north, Russian forces seem poised to close the gap of a smaller pocket containing Ukrainian positions in Cheburashka and Zenit strong points in south-western Avdeevka.


Azov appears to have arrived in Avdeevka, but possibly too late. This is allegedly a video of them engaging Russian forces by the cut road. No doubt there will be attempts to reopen it, but it's unclear how possible it is for Ukraine to hold mostly ruined single story industrial buildings in a tiny patch of ground under constant Russian bombs.


There are reports that Russia is dropping dozens of bombs on Avdeevka daily. The small size of the town makes it hard for Ukrainian defenders to hide in there and often when the areas to be taken contain several buildings, they can be completely destroyed by repeated bombardment.


Mar'inka-Novomihailovka.

Russian advances continue in 4 separate areas. Russian troops are continuing to slowly push west through Georgievka. While the advance appears to be going faster then the fighting in Mar'inka, it's likely this is due to a scarcity of resources on the part of Ukraine, combine with the focus on Avdeevka. Russian forces have also advanced southward towards Pobeda seizing a key treeling. The village is an important Ukrainian strong point protecting Novomihailovka from the north. It's fall would make Ukrainian positions there considerably more vulnerable.

The other areas of advances are westward into Novomihailovka itself where Russia is continuing to gain some ground, and south of Novomihailovka where Russia is pushing to the road from Konstantinovka to Ugledar. Note, while in principle cutting this road doesn't prevent supplies from reaching Ugledar, when logistics become canalized they do become more vulnerable and more predictable. Also note that other roads out of Ugledar are in considerably worse shape.

 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russian strikes.

February is expected to be a record month for Russian guided bomb strikes. Russia has dropped 460 of them in the first third of the month, according to some sources. The last record month of November with over 1200 strikes, the record day being Nov 25th with 150 strikes in a single day. However impressive this is in light of previous VVS efforts, for comparison the US dropped an average of 217 bombs per day on Iraqi forces in '91, and 521 per day in 2003. Russia still has a way to go, as right now Russian daily averages are below 100. On the flip side US forces only did this for short periods of time (43, and 31 days respectively). Russia is in this for the months and the years. The overall trend however is quite bad for Ukraine.


Reports are leaking out including through Ukrainian sources that in/near the village of Selidovo 1500 Ukrainian service members were in formation for some sort of ceremony, and the formation was hit by a Russian Kalibr strike with cluster munitions. The total casualties are unknown, and reportedly the SBU is all over the locals to figure out how Russia knew. Reportedly Russia double tapped the casualty collection teams that arrived after the strike with a follow up strike. Some sources are speculating that these may have been reserves meant for Avdeevka, but at this time it's pure conjecture and the strike itself is lacking confirmation. Considering Ukrainian OPSEC measures, we may not get confirmation of this strike for a long time.


Next to Selidovo Russia struck Ukrainian vehicles in a staging area also with cluster munitions but also allegedly with long range artillery. However it's hard to tell what the damage is except one vehicle that's clearly destroyed.


While Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure are nowhere near the scale of last winter, they are still continuing. Note that not all damage from last year has been repaired and in many cases the repairs themselves are ad-hoc. Russia hit the Pridneprovskaya power plant, reportedly causing significant damage. Reports are that 3-7 weeks of repairs will be needed. Continuing strikes like this are not going to shut down Ukraine's power grid but will continue to keep in poor (likely steadily worsening) shape.


Fragments, allegedly of a Russian 3M22 Tsirkon hypersonic AShM used against Kiev. If correct, this would not be surprising. Russia is eager to test various new systems under different conditions, and Russia has been using AShMs against ground targest in many other cases. It would also make sense for Russia to develop an land-attack variant of the 3M22.


Other interesting tidbits.

It appears Russia downed a Ukrainian Mi-8 in Zaporozhye near Rabotino. Some reports claim it was hit by an ATGM, others suggest a MANPADS.


A Russian T-90S trying to haul away what appears to be a knocked out T-64BV hits a land mine and then gets destroyed by a drone.


Possible first sighting of the VAMPIR short range SAM in Ukrainian use against a Russian drone.


In Lisichansk a Ukrainian drone dropped a munition on a civilian car carrying a family of 3, including a child. One woman was wounded.


Interesting footage of a Russian Mi-24 chasing a Ukrainian drone in Leningrad region. Note this isn't the first time Russia has used helos to chase UAVs.


A closer look at one of Ukraine's speed boats doing runs to Krynki. Note the EW station on the back. The greatest threat to these boats are Russian drones.


New BMPTs are now confirmed, though the quantities appear small. My money is either on another batch of 10, or a smaller batch intended to replace losses in the prior 10. Note the crew is wearing new 6B48 PPE for vehicle crews. The vehicle also sports a panoramic commanders sight common with the T-90M but absent from the rest of Russia's tank fleet.


Former DNR now Russian 5th Motor-Rifle Bde shows off their uparmored BMP-2. It's carrying the factory produced extra armor kits.


An ex-Georgian BMP-1 with a Shkval module allegedly in Russian service. Note the improvised extra armor. Despite continuing BMP-3 production at a considerable pace the once almost unseen BMP-1 is likely back to stay in Russian service for many years to come.


A look at one of Ukraine's new Rosomak APCs from Poland.


A Ukrainian Marder somewhere near the front lines. So far Ukraine has received very few of these vehicles, and they haven't seen particularly heavy combat despite briefly appearing in the Rabotino salient.


Shockingly a Ukrainian coast guard boat remains in tact. It's a Soviet built project 205P boat.


It appears 2 damaged Ukrainian HIMARS have arrived in the US for repairs. This confirms Russia has managed to hit at least some of them while simultaneously showing vehicles that are generally intact. Of cousre if one was completely destroyed, it wouldn't get spotted here.


A very short video that appears to be Ukrainian soldiers riding around in an ambulance. None appears to be wounded, and none are wearing tactical gear. It's possible this is another case of Ukraine's military commissariat using an ambulance to move around.


Russian security forces have found a weapons cache in Mariupol'. The cache was reportedly booby trapped. Note it's not surprising that many weapons are still left in Mariupol'. What's more interesting is that the footage shows us a small piece of the "private sector" neighborhood of town. It's still in ruins. Most of the reconstruction efforts are focused on key areas in and near the center of town, and also on the western outskirts.


There are reports Russia built a massive wall of cargo train cars in Donestk region running from Elenovka. It's reportedly 30kms long and makes for a serious barrier if vehicles were to try and cross it.

 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
According to reports, Ukraine today sunk Russia’s Ropucha-I Class LST Caesar Kunikov using USVs. Ukraine hits Russia's Ropucha-I class LST Caesar Kunikov with USV attack - Naval News

Nammo's factory in Finland will increase ammo production five-fold in 2024: Finnish plant to hike ammunition production fivefold due to Russia's war in Ukraine (kyivindependent.com)

I have previously mentioned Nammo's expansion in Norway. I found some more information on this, it seems Nammo's production in Norway will also increase five-fold, although it will take a bit longer to get there. According to Norwegian newspaper DN, Nammo has today 25% of the Ukranian market of 155mm ammo. Åpner pengesekken for Nammo etter langvarig press | DN

Nammo factory in Sweden will produce ammo 24/7 for Ukraine. Nammo Sweden to Produce Shells for Ukraine Around the Clock - Militarnyi

Rheinmetall is building a new ammunition factory, hiring 500 people. Production in the new factory will reach 100,000 in the second year of production, later rising to 200,000 155mm shells per year. Rheinmetall builds new ammunition plant in Germany | Rheinmetall

Norway plans to order more NASAMS systems to Ukraine -- ten launch units and four fire control centers, total cost of 3.45 billion NOK. This has to b e approved by Parliament however support for Ukraine remains strong and this will no doubt be approved. Norway provide more NASAMs to Ukraine - regjeringen.no
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
According to reports, Ukraine today sunk Russia’s Ropucha-I Class LST Caesar Kunikov using USVs. Ukraine hits Russia's Ropucha-I class LST Caesar Kunikov with USV attack - Naval News
Russian sources are confirming. Casualty counts, the ultimate fate of the crew (though social media sources are claiming they were evacuated) and the ship are unclear but rescue operations were reported under way. Notably it appears the ship did not sink immediately, it's not clear if the ship ended up breaking apart or went down as a single hull. The location is claimed as near the coast of Crimea.


EDIT: A good map from Boris Rozhin shows in purple the new supply routes Ukraine is using given the loss of Industrial Ave. Note the roads are unpaved and run through the fields. Both roads are also under Russian artillery fires and subject to drone strikes. More significantly if Russia solidifies their hold on industrial ave. the northern route may be under direct fire from Russian forces inside Avdeevka. The southern route may already be under direct fire, we don't have confirmation, depending on whether the maps from Suriyakmaps or from Boris Rozhin are correct. Rybar is once again confirming yesterday's info on Russian advances, though cautiously.


We have what appear to be casualties from Ukraine's 3rd Assault Bde, the infamous Azov, fighting at Avdeevka.


EDIT: Obituaries are showing up online for Azov fighters, presumably related to their recent deployment to Avdeevka. Of course the question remains, who did Russia hit in Selidovo? Perhaps also Azov?


EDIT2: The opening for the southern pocket around Zenit and Cheburashka strong points is on the verge of closing, the opening is now reportedly less then 1km apart. It's fall would presumably open the road to the Khimik neighborhood, though it remains to be seen what happens with Ukrainian reinforcements entering the fight. There are rumors of an underground pipe connecting the Zenit strong point to the rest of Avdeevka. This sounds like a convenient explanation for a potential Russian failure to encircle Ukrainian forces there, however it's given some credence by the fact that Russia used a similar under ground pipe to capture Tsarskaya Ohota strong point.

 
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Fredled

Active Member
Feanor said:
February is expected to be a record month for Russian guided bomb strikes.
Thanks for all these informations. The comparison with Operation Desert Storm and the 2003 invasion of Iraq is interresting.

Ukrainian forces suffer quite a lot from these gliding bombs, no top of rockets and artillery shells. They are currently building fortifications to contain russian advance. Just as the russians built some to contain Ukrainian advance. However it's unclear how these fortifications can withstand a rain of FAB-500. Their only hope is that they miss their target.

Feanor said:
Reports are leaking out including through Ukrainian sources that in/near the village of Selidovo 1500 Ukrainian service members were in formation for some sort of ceremony, and the formation was hit by a Russian Kalibr strike with cluster munitions.
It would be incomprehensible that the Ukrainian military did a ceremony gathering 1500 soldiers in one place, so close to the front line.
When 25 soldiers gathered at a bar for a birthday, and they were bombed following a tip off, it was already considered as a grave dereliction on the part of those who organised the event. It was a lesson for everyone.
So, IMO a gathering of 1500 soldiers is very unlikely.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Thanks for all these informations. The comparison with Operation Desert Storm and the 2003 invasion of Iraq is interresting.

Ukrainian forces suffer quite a lot from these gliding bombs, no top of rockets and artillery shells. They are currently building fortifications to contain russian advance. Just as the russians built some to contain Ukrainian advance. However it's unclear how these fortifications can withstand a rain of FAB-500. Their only hope is that they miss their target.
One of the problem with static positions is that if Russia drops 4 FABs and 2 miss, they can just drop 4 more, and then 4 more, and then 4 more. It's part of what makes Avdeevka so hard to defend. I also don't think they are doing what Russia did with their fortifications. I'll try to expand on the difference when I have more time, but I think it's interesting and instructive.

It would be incomprehensible that the Ukrainian military did a ceremony gathering 1500 soldiers in one place, so close to the front line.
When 25 soldiers gathered at a bar for a birthday, and they were bombed following a tip off, it was already considered as a grave dereliction on the part of those who organised the event. It was a lesson for everyone.
So, IMO a gathering of 1500 soldiers is very unlikely.
It remains to be seen. I suspect some sort of gather took place, the details are however scarce. I'll do another follow up tonight but after double-tapping rescue teams, Russia hit the medical facility they were evacuated to.
 
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Redshift

Active Member
One of the problem with static positions is that if Russia drops 4 FABs and 2 miss, they can just drop 4 more, and then 4 more, and then 4 more. It's part of what's Avdeevka so hard to defend. I also don't think they are doing what Russia did with their fortifications. I'll try to expand on the difference when I have more time, but I think it's interesting and instructive
"..... after double-tapping rescue teams, Russia hit the medical facility they were evacuated to."

How very decent of them.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
"..... after double-tapping rescue teams, Russia hit the medical facility they were evacuated to."

How very decent of them.
Yeah, if accurate, and it seems to be, it constitutes a war crime. Note double-tapping military rescue workers trying to rescue other military members who were hit by a strike may not constitute a war crime, but targeting the hospital definitely does. I don't think there's anyway anyone could claim that was accidental. If the available information is correct, Russia clearly has some good intelligence on what is going on inside the small town, and is using that to maximize damage in ways that are both legal and not.
 

Redshift

Active Member
Yeah, if accurate, and it seems to be, it constitutes a war crime. Note double-tapping military rescue workers trying to rescue other military members who were hit by a strike may not constitute a war crime, but targeting the hospital definitely does. I don't think there's anyway anyone could claim that was accidental. If the available information is correct, Russia clearly has some good intelligence on what is going on inside the small town, and is using that to maximize damage in ways that are both legal and not.
I would guess that there would a reasonable chance of civilians or civilian organisation being involved in the rescue attempt given the location of the strike.
 
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