Hamas-Israeli War 2023

[Big_Zucchini]

GRAPHIC

Video from Gaza demonstrates difficult reality of urban warfare. Precisely, the absence of a "front" and how a threat is truly 360°.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1754490077604897161

 

[Ananda]

you want to express an ideology of radicalm islam - fine. I've personally seen many such people.

For someone who claim being labeling by me, you sure shown like to labels others. What ideology of radical islam that I put before ? Right of return of Palestinian is the causes of all Palestinian, and it is been their cause even before PLO (unless you also claim PLO is radical islam ideology).

But you should understand that it's not going to be very convincing to those who grew outside this sphere of influence.

Same thing with your Israel ideology thinking. Not going to be convincing for those who already support Palestinian causes. Or are you again going to pictures those support Palestinian as antisemitism racist? Btw antisemitism card is playing by many pro Israel who also not jewish. Jews has nothing to do with Zionism (no matter those who support Zionist say). Like I said, I also have meet some Israeli on my line of work in my Industry. Few of them even become what you can call anti zionist.

Btw, Israeli is not derogatory. It is just a call for people of Israel (Bani Israel). Or now you want to call that any call originate from Arab as racist and derogatory?

 

[koxinga]

Which way no Arabs government want to risk the anger from their street if they accepting any Palestinians refugees.

But even before the start of this war, Palestinians refugees were never really accepted in any Arab state and were discriminated against. Most people that I know who worked in MENA, especially places like Dubai gave similar feedback that local Arabs want little to do with them.

Of course, on the political front, it is another matter, but on a personal level, they are seen as freeloaders and troublemakers, much like any other countries dealing with influx of refugees. This (human beings looking out for their own interest), is still the main driver.

 

[Ananda]

Most people that I know who worked in MENA, especially places like Dubai gave similar feedback that local Arabs want little to do with them.

Yes, I already said that the arabs, especially the rich arabs have low regards to poorer arabs, whether come from Yaman , Egypt, Palestinian and Lebanon. However that's different with the BS of most of Arab give middle finger to Palestinians.

I also have good connections with colleagues from MENA, especially Saudi's and UAE Banks. They are confirmed that the mood in arab street increasingly pro Palestinians. They will not going to accept any actions that going to make Palestinian Gaza and WB lost their access to the land. Accepting them as refugees clearly in that direction, as long as the Palestinians have no right of return.

That's the position of the Arab, and not this Israel selling point of the Arabs hate Palestinians. On contrary the official possition of the Arabs has to stay away from Israel agenda, including accepting Palestinians refugees. In which they see as Israel effort on shifting the weight to them, as Saudis Foreign Minister statement.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Yeah okay the entire Arab world supporting Palestine against the evil Jews, we all know that. 100 years later, how's that going for them?

 

[Ananda]

100 years later, how's that going for them?

Perhaps we see how all turn out 20 years from now. Do keep up on killing the Palestinian, so far it's seems solidifies the Arabs, from scatter tribal thinking they have.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Perhaps we see how all turn out 20 years from now. Do keep up on killing the Palestinian, so far it's seems solidifies the Arabs, from scatter tribal thinking they have.

Solidifies them... into peace and normalization with Israel.

Israel establishes land route for trade through Arab states, bypassing Houthi Red Sea blockade

Israel is using a land route for the import of goods through the Gulf and across the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, and Jordan to Israel, in an effort...

www.middleeastmonitor.com

 

[koxinga]

and Lebanon

Everyone got good things to say about Lebanese girls

I also have good connections with colleagues from MENA, especially Saudi's and UAE Banks. They are confirmed that the mood in arab street increasingly pro Palestinians. They will not going to accept any actions that going to make Palestinian Gaza and WB lost their access to the land. Accepting them as refugees clearly in that direction, as long as the Palestinians have no right of return.

I don't disagree with any of those points. If a man on a western street can be inflamed by what is happening in Gaza, it would be naturally stronger in Arab states.

Where I have doubt is how much of this is support for Palestinians and how much of this is self-serving national interests of the players in MENA? The two are mixed together, from what I can tell.

Egypt: Yes, of course support Palestinian cause/no expulsion/right of return/two states etc. But practical concern, they don't want to see / support thousands of refugees burden their economy if it spills over.

GCC states: Yes, of course support Palestinian cause/no expulsion/right of return/two states etc. Active players, go between of Hamas and west. Desires two state to counter balance Israel, but also interested in economic relation with Israel. Sees the current conflict as unnecessary distraction when they see Iran/Shiite as the bigger threat.

Iran: Yes, of course support Palestinian cause/no expulsion/right of return/two states etc, See it in the larger perspective of Iran/Shiite domainance. Sees perpertual conflict of Israel with Palestinians / Hezabollah in the north as the best outcome (hence they are unhappy that one side is dominating), which allows them to focus on their ambitions w.r.t GCC/Sunnis.

I am neither pro-Israeli or pro-Palestinian. I'm just cynical. Everyone's got an angle to play in ME. It just how you sell it to the masses on the street.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

A good analogy would be Russia-Ukraine-West. Sure, Russia invaded Ukraine and the west could make a case that it's a Ukraine-only issue and that Russia can deal with that, like how it was said here that Arabs view Palestine as a Palestine-Israel issue and shouldn't be baited to help, but the western nations gladly accepted Ukrainian refugees and provided aid to Ukraine.
The Arab nations continue to give Palestine a middle finger back.

 

[Ananda]

Solidifies them... into peace and normalization with Israel.

Ooo another Israel Zionist dream.

Back in region, Blinken hashes over normalization, Gaza truce deal with Saudi prince

US secretary of state meets bin Salman to kick off tour that will also bring him to Egypt, Qatar and Israel; US official says 'impossible' to know if, when breakthrough in offing

www.timesofisrael.com

Which even Israel more realistic media knows, there will be no normalisation as long as Israel keep kiling Palestinian, giving no political solutions to them, and keep trying to ethnic cleanse them from their land for right wingers settlers.

I'm just cynical. Everyone's got an angle to play in ME. It just how you sell it to the masses on the street.

Agree on that, that's the point that I try to put in this thread. Everyone has their own domestic angle and even they're no democratic regimes, the Arabs has to be able to sell the idea to the street. Commiting to an idea against their street, will deflect the emotion in the street toward them.

Now the anger in the street is with Israel and they increasingly wants Palestinian solutions. So they will not engage and normalize with Israel, they will not going to be involve with any US lead operation against Houthi (no matter how some Prince's in Saudi and UAE wants), because it will risk the anger in the street deflect to them. Definitely they will not take that risk for the sake of Israel under right wingers Zionist like Netanyahu.

Saudis 'open' to Israel skipping steps for Palestine state

Riyadh is reportedly keen on stepping up its security with a US defence pact, and is willing to accept non-binding Israeli agreement on a Palestinian state.

www.newarab.com

"The message from the kingdom to America has been: 'Stop the war first, allow humanitarian aid and commit to a just and lasting solution to give the Palestinians a state'," said Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Research Center think-tank in Jeddah, who is familiar with the ongoing discussions. "Without it, Saudi Arabia can't do anything."

That's clearly "far from" thinking of some Zionist dream that the Arab's give middle fingers to Palestinians. This is in fact the Arabs giving middle finger to Israel Zionist Right Wingers. Sort out your mess with Palestinian, or don't dream any normalisation with us.

Which is increasingly shown how delusional some Israeli who think the Arabs giving middle fingers to Palestinians. The Gulf rich Arabs may look down to poorer Arab, as I have mentioned before. They see the poorer Arab wants some of their financial entitlement, just because they are also Arab. I see that whether in Jeddah, Riyadh, Dubai or Doha. However they will not accept Israel killing their fellow Arabs, which is what Palestinian to them. Still fellow Arabs, poor Arabs, but still Arabs.

Will Arab-Israeli normalisation survive the Gaza war?

Analysis: No new Arab states are likely to join the Abraham Accords anytime soon, but will the Gaza war impact existing normalisation deals?

www.newarab.com

Yes, very delusional Zionist believe that Arabs still give middle finger to Palestinians, after all killing and ethnic cleansing intensions. Especially from right winger zionist in power. It is just Solidifies the Arabs giving middle finger to Israel.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Aid to Gaza keeps flowing, and perhaps the most robust aspect of that mechanism is the IDF's civilian coordination agency COGAT.
The IDF's aid mechanisms are less exploitable than the UN's as it typically provides materials that are not ready for use but rather need processing which is more available to civilians instead of Hamas. Hamas is still able to exploit it, but to a lesser degree.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1755901186010435692

UNRWA keeps taking fire from all directions with much of its budget already being cut, as well as early signs of sanctions on some of its members. However both Israel and the US seem to want to prevent its total collapse because underneath all the corruption, it is still somehow able to function as a coordinator in Gaza and facilitate activities that would prevent a humanitarian collapse in the protected areas.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Hamas tunnel was discovered directly under UNRWA's HQ.
Philippe Lazzarini, current Commissioner-General of UNRWA, says UNRWA was unaware of this, despite the IDF previously inviting UNRWA officials to tour tunnels and explaining to them about the threat. Lazzarini himself was also invited, but declined the invitation.
Inside the UNRWA HQ building, cables going underground were in plain sight.
Such revelations only contribute to a justification of dismantling UNRWA, and hopefully other ultra corrupt institutions, and replacing them with goal-driven ones.

UNRWA head says agency was in dark about Hamas center under Gaza HQ; Israel: ‘You knew’

Philippe Lazzarini says allegations should be probed, any other 'suspicious' activity reported to UN; COGAT says officials ignored information; Katz calls for agency chief's ouster

www.timesofisrael.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1756396240311398549

Israel is wrapping up in Khan Younis and prepares for an operation in Rafah. Such operation is crucial for the annihilation of Hamas, but international pressure might make it a time limited one. Combined with the sheer complexity of such an operation, this might lead the IDF to shorten the timetables which in turn might make it overall deadlier to both sides. A standing issue is how to evacuate approximately a million civilians and to where. Among them are embedded Hamas operatives that will certainly restore some of their previous control in liberated areas if a mass evacuation occurs.

Netanyahu said to believe Israel has 1 month to finish Rafah operation amid global ire

After PM directs IDF to draw up plans for southern Gaza, chief of staff reportedly says government needs to first decide what to do with over 1 million Gazans sheltering there

www.timesofisrael.com

Egypt brings tanks forward, presumably to deal with a potential refugee crisis from Rafah. Egypt reportedly threatens suspension of peace treaty but this situation is actually normal. For close to a decade, Israel permitted Egypt to violate some of the peace treaty's terms to facilitate anti-terror operations in the Sinai. Egypt in turn permits Israel to violate the same terms as well to facilitate anti-terror operations in Gaza.
Mutual and agreed-upon violations are considered normal in this relationship and are not an indication of provocation. Therefore a suspension is highly unlikely, especially considering Egypt has much to lose from doing so. However, if we entertain the idea, it is probably just a technicality. If Palestinians decide to breach the border wall with Egypt and rush toward the Sinai, Egypt may resort to gunning down said refugees in solidarity with Palestine.

Report: Egypt warns Israel Rafah offensive may lead to suspension of peace treaty

Saudis also raise alarm; ground op pledged by Netanyahu in refugee-packed border city draws rebukes even from allies

www.timesofisrael.com

Lacking trust in Israeli government, US pushes for reinvigorated Palestinian state as a day-after solution, but it may be misguided.
It should be no secret that at this point the Israeli government cannot seem to gain anyone's trust - be it the domestic public or other governments. It is simply hijacked by lunatics whose actions defy all logic. However, in my opinion, it would be wrong for the US to ignore the remaining competent and professional parts of the government and drive its own policy without consultation.
US strategy in the region is notoriously ineffective. A short attention span coupled with rapidly alternating policy equal an incoherent mess that typically begins with a solid vision and culminates in poor execution.
A reinvigorated Palestinian Authority is an undertaking that requires first and foremost deep and continuous cooperation with Israel, as well as the Arab states. Due to the dynamic nature of US-Arab relations, the US needs Israel as its single solid anchor that will keep driving its policy irrespective of interruptions on the US's side.
Hence, by taking Israel out of the equation, it may alienate a future Israeli government (particularly regarding the issue of Palestine) and even form a sort of permanent opposition from Israel to the idea.

https://www.axios.com/2024/01/31/palestine-statehood-biden-israel-gaza-war

 

[koxinga]

A reinvigorated Palestinian Authority -snipped-

How viable is this outcome? Beyond constraint by the limited number of creditable / acceptable actors in the Palestinian political spectrum, any actor supported by the US / accepted to Israel is unlikely to acceptable to Palestinians.

I have no doubt that Bibi / IDF will achieve its goals of "destroying" (e.g all active Hamas battalions destroyed, dismantling of operational/political leadership, securing all remaining hostages) Hamas. But I wonder what are the long term consequences, since Israel are using a path of violence to convince the other side that their path of violence will not be successful.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

How viable is this outcome? Beyond constraint by the limited number of creditable / acceptable actors in the Palestinian political spectrum, any actor supported by the US / accepted to Israel is unlikely to acceptable to Palestinians.

This is something I explained here earlier, so this time briefly - Saddam, Gaddafi, Khamenei - neither particularly popular, yet alone they were/are capable of controlling their populations. A reinvigorated PA is likely to be similar to those regimes, and pursue a limited number of western policy items, including and primarily re-education of Palestinian population against violence toward Jews, and hopefully against violence in general.
Any talk about it being democratic is probably lip service.
I think this idea will make more sense to you if you look beyond current Palestinian leaders and accept manufactured grassroots figures, or imported leaders. Mohammed Dahlan is a recurring figure when debating this topic.

But I wonder what are the long term consequences, since Israel are using a path of violence to convince the other side that their path of violence will not be successful.

Historically, overwhelming violence has been a very good and reliable solution to aggression.
On the other hand, appeasement rarely ever worked.
Thinking of a non-violent approach to Hamas has serious Chamberlain vibes to it.

 

[koxinga]

This is something I explained here earlier, so this time briefly - Saddam, Gaddafi, Khamenei - neither particularly popular, yet alone they were/are capable of controlling their populations. A reinvigorated PA is likely to be similar to those regimes, and pursue a limited number of western policy items, including and primarily re-education of Palestinian population against violence toward Jews, and hopefully against violence in general.
Any talk about it being democratic is probably lip service.
I think this idea will make more sense to you if you look beyond current Palestinian leaders and accept manufactured grassroots figures, or imported leaders. Mohammed Dahlan is a recurring figure when debating this topic.

Thanks for repeating your explanation.

Historically, overwhelming violence has been a very good and reliable solution to aggression.
On the other hand, appeasement rarely ever worked.
Thinking of a non-violent approach to Hamas has serious Chamberlain vibes to it.

Historically and I am stand to be corrected, the use of overwhelming violence seems to be more effective against state based actors that were driven by nationalistic hubris. Once those political actors are removed from power, those states revert to being "normal", and society in those states associate the violence with those actors instead of those that delivered the violence.

Ethnic and religious type conflicts with societies that had a limited history of democractic institutions tend to be more messy. Where I see a challenge with the Palestinians is they had only a limited, proper functioning government for a short period of time, while the collective memories of the expulsion, subsequent humilations of military defeat, loss of lands, loom far larger in their psyche. I will not be surprised that remenants of Hamas or simply a new generation of Palestinians will actively try to undermine and corrode any new regime.

Thinking of a non-violent approach to Hamas has serious Chamberlain vibes to it.

No, not thinking along those lines. The question I have is whether the leadership of Israel is interested in a political lasting solution that requires some trade-offs rather than military one (Israel tells what the Palestinians can have, can run, can operate, effectively functioning as a overlord to a satrap, in historical terms).

For all intents and purposes, the outcome of this conflict is already pre-determined and conflict is likely to wind down for the Ramandan period.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Necessity of Rafah op

2 hostages were apparently rescued in an IDF operation in Rafah, which reportedly involved the Shin Bet and Yamam (Israeli SWAT). Unfortunately, 2 IDF soldiers were reportedly killed during operations in southern Gaza, though it is not clear whether they were involved in the operation. This is what sets us apart - the willingness to risk oneself to help another, and the sanctity of life.
This brings the total of hostages rescued by the IDF to 3, and IIRC there are 134 remaining.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1756960285514928604

There appears to be significant discord over Rafah specifically. This indicates, IMO, that Rafah is a sensitive nerve for Hamas. Being a border city with Egypt, it is the first stop for many smuggled items into Gaza, and likely where Hamas invested significant resources to facilitate said smuggling operations. As such, it is likely to contain a particularly complex array of tunnels that are more connected than the combat tunnels of northern and central Gaza (separation is done to compartmentalize damage and hinder mapping efforts).
The IDF has already cleared every part of Gaza from major terror activity, with exception of Rafah and the humanitarian zone. We also know that the humanitarian zone was previously an under-developed area and as such likely contains very little military infrastructure, or any that exists today may be rushed and improvized.

It is therefore safe to assume that a significant number, perhaps vast majority of hostages are currently in Rafah. The accuracy of this assumption is further reinforced by the significant "uproar" among Hamas supporters.
The IDF already drew up battle plans for Rafah long before any approval came, but it is unclear how the IDF will attempt to prevent the transfer of concealed hostages to liberated areas once the evacuation begins. It is estimated that most hostages currently held in yet untouched areas of Gaza, have been moved there by Hamas during previous evacuation efforts.
And as of writing this I found a Twit that explains this more eloquently than I could:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1756721187458044057

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Historically and I am stand to be corrected, the use of overwhelming violence seems to be more effective against state based actors that were driven by nationalistic hubris. Once those political actors are removed from power, those states revert to being "normal", and society in those states associate the violence with those actors instead of those that delivered the violence.

Israel's conflict is with Hamas, not the Palestinians. Although I'm sure some Gazans will remember that, public opinion is ultimately out of Israel's control, so it cannot really be a function in a current strategy outside the scope of the usual "hearts and minds" policies.

Ethnic and religious type conflicts with societies that had a limited history of democractic institutions tend to be more messy. Where I see a challenge with the Palestinians is they had only a limited, proper functioning government for a short period of time, while the collective memories of the expulsion, subsequent humilations of military defeat, loss of lands, loom far larger in their psyche. I will not be surprised that remenants of Hamas or simply a new generation of Palestinians will actively try to undermine and corrode any new regime.

It's not a mutually religious conflict. For the Palestinians it might be, but for Israel it's just another case of pesky neighbors firing rockets where they shouldn't. Israel has shown similar capacity for peace and war with every neighbor of whatever religion/philosophy.

If a reinvigorated PA - i.e. new dictatorship is established in Gaza, such considerations may become redundant. The west will simply allow them to crack down on any opposition. Yes, the PA currently requires substantial Israeli aid to curb terrorist organizations' attempts to overthrow it, but Israel also limits itself in how much it assists the PA as the PA is simply not a trustworthy actor. A new PA that Israel and the broader west can trust, may find itself with greater support.
The current PA, IMO, took the approach of securing its existence by limiting its cooperation with Israel to an extent and the occasional political conflicts that incur sanctions, to appease its own population.
A different approach could be strong-arming the population to the maximum.
The latter could be more secure against competing groups, while the former might bet on the false notion that Israel will be there to save them at any cost.

No, not thinking along those lines. The question I have is whether the leadership of Israel is interested in a political lasting solution rather than short term military one.

Well that was the only alternative I saw to a military action in Gaza.
And for your question - Yes, I believe so. Throughout its history, regardless of government, Israel sought peace with its neighbors and with some it has certainly achieved that, including with the recent Abraham Accords.
I assume you might then naturally ask "Well didn't 7/10 change anything in the Israeli mindset? What would the public think NOW?"
And to that I say that the Israeli public's appetite for peace with its Arab neighbors is as big as it ever was. A normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia is still a lucrative achievement that every government will seek, and while the Israeli public is very much against a Palestinian state along in Gaza and J&S, it does have an appetite for some form of solution. Some propose voluntary transfer, some propose puppet governments, and there are many creative ideas in between, but the common denominator is that people want a solution, and don't want a continuation of military activity. What many critics of Israel's settlement policy don't understand is just how much the Israeli public dislikes the thought of deploying troops there permanently.

 

[koxinga]

Israel's conflict is with Hamas, not the Palestinians. Although I'm sure some Gazans will remember that, public opinion is ultimately out of Israel's control, so it cannot really be a function in a current strategy outside the scope of the usual "hearts and minds" policies.

Factually true and we can see Fatah /West Bank are not targeted, but that point needs to be viewed in context.

While Israel can say that is beyond their ability to control the external narrative (true) but the consequences (e.g 20k dead Palestinian civilians, destruction of decades of infrastructure, IDP) are very much real. (equally true)

Shrugging shoulders and saying "too bad, nothing I can do about people being irrationally angry and don't see the facts" doesn't really help.

And for your question - Yes, I believe so. Throughout its history, regardless of government, Israel sought peace with its neighbors and with some it has certainly achieved that, including with the recent Abraham Accords.

I don't question Israel's desire for peace with Arab neigbhours. Heck, the string of peace/normalization agreements is one of Bibi's proudest moments. There is a lot of "look at me, the peacemaker, I did what the previous leaders wasn't able to do" vibe.

What many critics of Israel's settlement policy don't understand is just how much the Israeli public dislikes the thought of deploying troops there permanently.

The Israeli public also don't like Bibi's judiciary reforms. Why is this relevant?

How this war is being prosecuted is down to his own agenda/views. And from what I can see, he wants his Bush style "mission accomplished" moment and he needs that to have continued support from the right wing. With this set of conditions in place, it seems unlikely that he will offer any deal that achieves long term peace (e.g a freeze or roll back of settlements).

I'm not saying peace isn't the desire of Israel or that it is impossible, just that with the person running the show now, it seems a very unlikely.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Factually true and we can see Fatah /West Bank are not targeted, but that point needs to be viewed in context.

While Israel can say that is beyond their ability to control the external narrative (true) but the consequences (e.g 20k dead Palestinian civilians, destruction of decades of infrastructure, IDP) are very much real. (equally true)

Shrugging shoulders and saying "too bad, nothing I can do about people being irrationally angry and don't see the facts" doesn't really help.

Since Israel is already doing its best to minimize damage to civilians and civilian infrastructure, there isn't really much beyond that it can do.
Perhaps technology can help, but for now we're limited to what exists in 2024, and the IDF's equipment is already at the forefront of deployable technology.
Sure the consequences are real but the IDF has no real control over them except to make them worse which is something it won't do for a plethora of reasons.

The Israeli public also don't like Bibi's judiciary reforms. Why is this relevant?

It's relevant because over the long term, this shapes Israeli policy, and it is a sort of permanent driver of opposition toward "containment" as a solution, and more toward a comprehensive solution. Why did the deployments across J&S not end then, as they have in Lebanon? Because the situation in Lebanon was resolved (and the IDF overstayed), but the situation in J&S (and Gaza) is a perfect diplomatically unsolvable situation.

How this war is being prosecuted is down to his own agenda/views. And from what I can see, he wants his Bush style "mission accomplished" moment and he needs that to have continued support from the right wing. With this set of conditions in place, it seems unlikely that he will offer any deal that achieves long term peace (e.g a freeze or roll back of settlements).

I think perhaps you exaggerate his role in this. As PM his influence over the IDF is his decisions in the cabinet - whose primary mission is to set achievable goals. Bibi is notorious for consistently avoiding doing just that. So while it is apparent from his propaganda outlets that they shout "til the absolute victory", it's not exactly possible when you set no goals.
Perhaps in a few months we will reach a point where the spotlight is on him, but for now the IDF is running the war fairly autonomously, mostly with guidance from competent political leadership such as Gantz and Eisenkot, both members of the war cabinet and former chiefs of general staff.
Yet even when that moment comes, any kind of deal is far from trivial. Not to achieve but even to simply formulate the preliminary goals of such deal.
I am confident that even for a truly competent leadership, achieving such deal or setting a clear policy would be extremely difficult because it necessarily involves coalition-making on a level Israel has never really done, and nation-building in which Israel is also poorly experienced.

I'm not saying peace isn't the desire of Israel or that it is impossible, just that with the person running the show now, it seems a very unlikely.

The important bits of a lasting policy are still not in the forseeable future, and even if elections get dragged out - in 2026 Israel will elect a different government that will dictate policy for the next decade.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Some footage from the rescue op:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1757102786028659021