Red Sea and the Houthis threat

[Vivendi]

US CENTCOM:
On Jan. 15 at approximately 4 p.m. (Sanaa time), Iranian-backed Houthi militants fired an anti-ship ballistic missile from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen and struck the M/V Gibraltar Eagle, a Marshall Islands-flagged, U.S.-owned and operated container ship. The ship has reported no injuries or significant damage and is continuing its journey.

Glad nobody got injured. It seems like the Houthis are going to continue with their attacks -- as I guess most of us expected already. I wonder if it was a coincidence that the ship attacked today was US owned?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1746913313932685597

 

[Larry_L]

I have a hard time understanding this mess, and see no good outcome in the short term. The latest input I have read is by Tom Cooper who seems to have a strong opinion on every conflict. I did learn a few things from this. If you look at who benefits in both this, and the Gaza crisis, the destabilization points to Iran, Russia, and of course China to a lesser extent.

Yemen - and what to think about that Fracas

Since two days, the USA and Great Britain are ‘bombing Yemen’.

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

 

[spoz]

Can’t have been much of a missile! No injuries or significant damage, continuing …. Sounds more like some sort of small drone or RPG round; container ships are not designed to have no significant damage if hit by a real missile - q.v. Atlantic Conveyor

 

[Ananda]

didn't ask, at any point, why the Arab nations stay out. The closest thing I asked is what would constitute them NOT staying out, and which nations you referred to. My main question was why did you label the Houthi actions as a retaliation against Israel.

First of all you comment and reply on my post that's talking on issue why the arabs government staying out. Now you are saying you're not talking on why the arabs staying out ? Clearly you're not consistent when commenting on one issue.

Second, because the Houthi clearly saying that their actions is agains Israel, related to Gaza war and clearly this's also what they are selling to Arab Public. So you can have your own interpretation on what Houthis aim, but Houthis can have their own interpretation on what's their aim.

also quite annoying that you label me as "Israeli side"

You are clearly Pro Israel thus you're belong to Israel side, what's annoying on that ? Everyone pick a side, as I for example clearly on "Palestinian side" as Pro Palestinian people cause. I'm stop to comment further as that's more matter on other ME thread. Just to clarified the meaning on " one side".

 

[DDG38]

While this article is from 2018, it does provide some excellent history and tactical analysis of the Houthis, long but interesting read :
The Houthi War Machine: From Guerrilla War to State Capture

 

[Redshift]

Second, because the Houthi clearly saying that their actions is agains Israel, related to Gaza war and clearly this's also what they are selling to Arab Public. So you can have your own interpretation on what Houthis aim, but Houthis can have their own interpretation on what's their aim.

Well if the Houthi say it then it must be true eh?

 

[Ananda]

Well if the Houthi say it then it must be true eh?

For one thing they are not care what people from your part of world think. For you perhaps more important what Israel say as true right ?

 

[Redshift]

For one thing they are not care what people from your part of world think. For you perhaps more important what Israel say as true right ?

That's not my point, my point is that you are citing the Houthi as giving a truthful account of their actions. I am more cynical of a group of people whose slogan is "God Is Great, Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse on the Jews, Victory to Islam".

For me it is an excuse not a reason, you of course can can believe anything that you want to but to suggest that the Houthi are likely to be a reliable and truthful entity is a little far fetched.

 

[Ananda]

me it is an excuse not a reason, you of course can can believe anything that you want to but to suggest that the Houthi are likely to be a reliable and truthful entity is a little far fetched.

Where I put in my post Houthi is truthful entity? You again as usual put your own word to mine. I say Houthi say their action is against Israel and that's what they are selling to Arab Public. As truthfulness they are no better then Israel truthfulness. However that's their position and the Arab governments so far choose not to dispute that, avoiding more enflaming their street if they are joint Western actions against Houthis. That's my posts all about.

You don't like it, is up to you. However you are not their target audiences anyway. You also not the constituents that matter for Arab Governments on deciding their actions.

am more cynical of a group of people whose slogan is "God Is Great, Death to America, Death to Israel, Curse on the Jews, Victory to Islam".

Not much difference then the group of people that talking to cleanse Gaza, and disregard the costs to civilians. For me Houthis on the matter of their actions toward war on gaza, has better truthfulness then Israel. Off couse Houthis also lies and full of propaganda. Still at this moment saying Israel as truthful entity (on this war) is also more far fetched for many outside West.

However you want to believe Israel and US and UK sides, it is also your rights. Just doesn't mean that everyone else in other part of this world, should be demanded to take Israel and West sides on this war.

 

[Redshift]

Where I put in my post Houthi is truthful entity? You again as usual put your own word to mine. I say Houthi say their action is against Israel and that's what they are selling to Arab Public. As truthfulness they are no better then Israel truthfulness. However that's their position and the Arab governments so far choose not to dispute that, avoiding more enflaming their street if they are joint Western actions against Houthis. That's my posts all about.

You don't like it, is up to you. However you are not their target audiences anyway. You also not the constituents that matter for Arab Governments on deciding their actions.



Not much difference then the group of people that talking to cleanse Gaza, and disregard the costs to civilians. For me Houthis on the matter of their actions toward war on gaza, has better truthfulness then Israel. Off couse Houthis also lies and full of propaganda. Still at this moment saying Israel as truthful entity (on this war) is also more far fetched for many outside West.

However you want to believe Israel and US and UK sides, it is also your rights. Just doesn't mean that everyone else in other part of this world, should be demanded to take Israel and West sides on this war.

When did I say anything whatsoever about the Israelis or the US or the UK?

 

[Ananda]

did I say anything whatsoever about the Israelis or the US or the UK?

When did I say Houthi is the 'thruthful' entity ? Just replied on your game in putting your own word to someone else post interpretation.

 

[Redshift]

When did I say anything whatsoever about the Israelis or the US or the UK?

You were asked

When did I say Houthi is the 'thruthful' entity ? Just replied on your game in putting your own word to someone else post interpretation.

Oh really?

I do feel sorry for you as you seem to truly believe that you are omniescent and that everything that you say is true and deeper than anything that others say.

Stick with your views man just go for it, always remember that anyone in the west is a liar and is always wrong.

 

[Feanor]

Well if the Houthi say it then it must be true eh?

This is an odd argument to make. The Houthis shot missiles at Israel. They claimed they're doing this because of the war in Gaza and are doing this against Israel. Do you see a particular reason to doubt this? Because their words and actions in this instance line up just fine. Houthis in general might not be truthful but if they fire missiles at Israel and state that they are acting against Israel, it would be very strange to argue that they're not acting against Israel.

 

[Ananda]

You were asked

Do you answer when I ask what prove you have on your claim in my post on Houthi as truthful entity? Seems you like to demand answer in order to avoiding answering ones.

feel sorry for you as you seem to truly believe that you are omniescent and that everything that you say is true and deeper than anything that others say.

Seems you talk about yourself.

Stick with your views man just go for it, always remember that anyone in the west is a liar and is always wrong.

That's your claim not mine, or are you trying back to your usual game on putting your own word to others posts ?

 

[OPSSG]

Ladies & gents, can we please go back to the topic?

1. We are not a he said, she said forum of opinions without facts. Facts matter & please stick to sharing more facts about Houthis & their harmful acts in the Red Sea (instead of only sharing your opinion).

2. All posters are to note that a post with facts & supported by reputable links is expected from time to time. If you are participating in this discussion without sharing any reputable links in your posts, your focus of discussion may need some minor re-adjustment to meet expected standards.

 

[Redshift]

This is an odd argument to make. The Houthis shot missiles at Israel. They claimed they're doing this because of the war in Gaza and are doing this against Israel. Do you see a particular reason to doubt this? Because their words and actions in this instance line up just fine. Houthis in general might not be truthful but if they fire missiles at Israel and state that they are acting against Israel, it would be very strange to argue that they're not acting against Israel.

They have been attacking ships in the Red Sea. Many of these ships have nothing to do with Israel.

30 attacks in 3 months: All Red Sea ships targeted by the Houthis

***

www.haaretz.com

 

[Ananda]

More Ships Flag No Link With Israel to Avoid Houthi Attacks

(Bloomberg) — Cargo ships are broadcasting that they are not connected with Israel in an effort to avoid Houthi attacks in the Red Sea area. At least 21 vessels were...

gcaptain.com

Shipping Industry especially those not related to Israel, US, UK begin more and more signaling their non relation with above parties. This is being done through massages in Ship Tracking database. Similar system that also being use in Airliner like Flightradar.

Shown that increasingly shipping Industry acknowledge that they need to use some kind of massaging or signal toward the Houthis. Effort to shown that they're not part of parties that Houthi claim as their target.

Because their words and actions in this instance line up just fine

@Feanor so far the ships claim to have no connection toward parties on Houthi target list, get through unhindered. Off course it is still early, and we don't know how reliable Houthi or even Iranian intelligence satisfaction toward this kind of signaling.

They may ask for further proof on the claim. Some in Industry already hinting potential 'neutral' party going to be use for that.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1747765843931414833

Put this not because coming from Lord Bebo account, however because it shown samples of data trackers of those ships with signaling not having connections toward Houthis 'targets', and get through safely so far. Let's see if this is enough for Houthi to differentiate their target.

 

[Feanor]

They have been attacking ships in the Red Sea. Many of these ships have nothing to do with Israel.

30 attacks in 3 months: All Red Sea ships targeted by the Houthis

***

www.haaretz.com

That might indicate that they aren't exclusively acting against Israel. But I don't think anyone is claiming that here, if they are I must have missed it. Consider what was actually argued. There are only two points, and they do not exclude others. 1) Houthis are acting against Israel. 2) This has to do with the war in Gaza. The Houthis have claimed both of these. Which do you find untrustwothy as a claim and why?

 

[Big_Zucchini]

That might indicate that they aren't exclusively acting against Israel. But I don't think anyone is claiming that here, if they are I must have missed it. Consider what was actually argued. There are only two points, and they do not exclude others. 1) Houthis are acting against Israel. 2) This has to do with the war in Gaza. The Houthis have claimed both of these. Which do you find untrustwothy as a claim and why?

I expressed a theory that it is not related to Israel, and only loosely related to Gaza as a sort of rationalization for the masses.

Iran's regional strategy has emphasized slow buildup of forces and proxies all across. All with different levels of independence and material support. This strategy seeks to exert power onto Iran's neighbors and most immediate threats (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel), and outward onto extra-regional powers like Europe, east Asia, and the US - to deter both military intervention and soft factors like sanctions and diplomatic hostility.
Part of that involves A2/AD on the region's borders and global export routes like the Red Sea, East Med, and Arabian Gulf. Hezbollah and Syria provide that in the East Med. Iran handles the Arabian Gulf independently, and Houthis handle the Red Sea.

As part of its strategy, Iran also constantly pushes the limits - often quite successfully. In the eastern flank, Iran failed to set up an Iraq-Syria-Lebanon corridor but with the Houthis it succeeded. Hezbollah also remains very well armed in spite of that.
This may be a test of this strategic concept, but also perhaps an attempt to create this new reality in which Iran can inflict significant economical hurt upon many of its adversaries - with very little repercussions.

 

[Feanor]

I expressed a theory that it is not related to Israel, and only loosely related to Gaza as a sort of rationalization for the masses.

Iran's regional strategy has emphasized slow buildup of forces and proxies all across. All with different levels of independence and material support. This strategy seeks to exert power onto Iran's neighbors and most immediate threats (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel), and outward onto extra-regional powers like Europe, east Asia, and the US - to deter both military intervention and soft factors like sanctions and diplomatic hostility.
Part of that involves A2/AD on the region's borders and global export routes like the Red Sea, East Med, and Arabian Gulf. Hezbollah and Syria provide that in the East Med. Iran handles the Arabian Gulf independently, and Houthis handle the Red Sea.

As part of its strategy, Iran also constantly pushes the limits - often quite successfully. In the eastern flank, Iran failed to set up an Iraq-Syria-Lebanon corridor but with the Houthis it succeeded. Hezbollah also remains very well armed in spite of that.
This may be a test of this strategic concept, but also perhaps an attempt to create this new reality in which Iran can inflict significant economical hurt upon many of its adversaries - with very little repercussions.

Well if the goal is to exert power onto Iran's neighbors such as Israel then... this does have something to do with Israel. I wouldn't be surprised if Gaza was a pretext, but had there been no conflict in Gaza, would the Houthis be doing this? As it stands they've gone from anti-Saudi resistance fighters bordering on a legitimate state actor all the way to essentially a terrorist organization.

EDIT: To be clear, the idea that Iran has a strategic vision here that isn't a response to the fight in Gaza would make sense to me. But I suspect that had there not been the current conflict in Gaza, the Houthis wouldn't be doing what they are doing right now. So on the simple question of whether this is a response to Gaza even if not with the intent of ending the conflict in Gaza (how could this possibly accomplish that goal?) it still seems to be a true statement.