Red Sea and the Houthis threat

[koxinga]

Well if the goal is to exert power onto Iran's neighbors such as Israel then... this does have something to do with Israel. I wouldn't be surprised if Gaza was a pretext, but had there been no conflict in Gaza, would the Houthis be doing this? As it stands they've gone from anti-Saudi resistance fighters bordering on a legitimate state actor all the way to essentially a terrorist organization.

It goes back to how we read Iran's strategic ambitions for the region.

The elimination of Israel is the well known, public ambition and that goes along with supporting any resistance forces or organisations fighting Israel actively. The current war in Gaza falls within this category. The second ambition is more sectarian, which is to counter balance Sunni states/be a dominant player that can even affect Europe etc, hence the support for the Houthis. I see them as separate and distinct ambitions, but mutually supporting.

So if I read @Big_Zucchini 's points correctly, while the Houthi's are using the first point as the public reason for attacking merchant ships in the region ("We are doing this for the Muslim brothers in Gaza"), it conveniently supports their second ambition.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Well if the goal is to exert power onto Iran's neighbors such as Israel then... this does have something to do with Israel

The war in Gaza is just a comfortable path for Iran to legitimize this.
This is far more likely a response to the US's relatively (to previous conflicts) aggressive stance.

 

[Meriv90]

Then going back on topic on why there is no Arab intervention
Source:

Arab Public Opinion about the Israeli War on Gaza

The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies announced the results of the public opinion poll regarding the Israeli war on Gaza on Wednesday 10 January 2024

www.dohainstitute.org

Here we can see the support to the 07 criminal operation

I imagine we can suppose that 63% is even higher on houti controlled territory.

@Meriv90 Source required for image. Posters shouldn't have to go hunting through various websites to find it. You have been on here long enough to know the rules.

Ngatimozart.

Its inside the report in pdf from the article from the Doha institute i posted before the image.

 

[Redshift]

I find this analysis to be very much In agreement with my own thoughts Viz a Viz why don't I believe that the Houthis are being truthful about their true intentions for attacking shipping in the Red Sea.

 

[Meriv90]

I will watch the video ASAP i get in some space where I can hear it.

But i really dislike the representation of the houti like classic tribal militia with Toyota technicals

Don't know if this article has already been posted

Houthi anti-ship missile systems: getting better all the time

www.iiss.org

Yemen - and what to think about that Fracas

Since two days, the USA and Great Britain are ‘bombing Yemen’.

xxtomcooperxx.substack.com

Then came the year 1990 when, in reaction to Sana’a’s support for Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait, countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council – see: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) etc. – expulsed more than one million Yemeni guest-workers. The returnees found their homeland dominated by the contemporary president Saleh and his clan, plus a clique of military commanders and merchants tied to Saudi-run patronage networks, which were diligently spreading Saudi-supported Salafism and Wahhabism.

And who is familiar with emigration knows that it is a selection process.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

But i really dislike the representation of the houti like classic tribal militia with Toyota technicals

What do you propose? Unless you mean they're that + fancy missiles, in which case I'd agree.

 

[Meriv90]

Mah they conducted a heli assault on one of the ships.

After years of war with the Saudi coalition they still got launch sites and the naval blockade doesn't work with iranian weaponry still flowing in.

Yes I saw N° videos of informal guerrilla and naked feet fighting against the mercenaries and emirates.

But we also got a footage of their parade before the Hamas crime.

I would put a photo of a ballistic missile from the parade. It is way more representative than the classic stereotype of the tribal warrior, with a clear racist connotation.

Or we are going to make the same error of Oct 7 with the paragliders underestimating them.

 

[Meriv90]

I find this analysis to be very much In agreement with my own thoughts Viz a Viz why don't I believe that the Houthis are being truthful about their true intentions for attacking shipping in the Red Sea.

Saw the video. About us Italians is to avoid the parliament vote, as by rules should be done with any new war engage. Thus we just sent the ship under the flag of anti-piracy already approved mission

I liked the al jazeera part on the negotiations with the Saudis

 

[Redshift]

Saw the video. About us Italians is to avoid the parliament vote, as by rules should be done with any new war engage. Thus we just sent the ship under the flag of anti-piracy already approved mission

I liked the al jazeera part on the negotiations with the Saudis

You are right about the headline picture to the video, from what I have seen elsewhere the Houthi have a lot of modern looking gear and as you say carried out an airborne landing from a Heli on a ship.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 3 of 3: The agency of the Houthis & Kataib Hezbollah as proxies of Iran

…the Houthi have a lot of modern looking gear…

10. Sorry but this is broadly incorrect. The Houthis have a variety of Iranian designed/supplied anti-ship missiles & a variety of UAVs but are limited in their anti-ship targeting ability due to UK & US efforts to degrade targeting ability. Please also do not over estimate the capability of the poorly trained Houthi gunmen who seized the Japanese-operated 'Galaxy Leader' in an unlawful act.

11. Japan’s government spokesperson confirmed the capture of the Nippon Yusen-operated ship, Galaxy Leader, adding that Japan was appealing to the Houthis while seeking the help of Saudi, Omani and Iranian authorities to work toward the swift release of the vessel and its crew.

…an airborne landing from a Heli on a ship.

12. Airborne refers to parachute-qualified infantry.

13. The U.S. returned the Yemen-based Houthi rebels to a list of terrorist groups. Interesting to see the Houthis, as a proxy of Iran & as a terrorist organisation:

​

(a) attacking commercial shipping in the Red Sea & if they hit a tanker, it could potentially have a huge environmental impact. At a technology level, the missiles used by the Houthis seem to miss a lot but I am sure China & Iran are trying their best to gather data to improve missile effectiveness;​

​

(b) attempt to replicate a small part of the tool kit used for visit, board, search, and seizure (VBSS).​

Mah they conducted a heli assault on one of the ships.

14. The Houthis caught the Galaxy Leader crew unprepared.

(a) Onboard the Galaxy Leader were 25 crew members, including 17 from the Philippines. The vessel's crew is made up of nationals from Bulgaria, Ukraine, the Philippines, Mexico and Romania, Galaxy Maritime said.​

​

(b) The Houthis got lucky and did an unopposed landing (or compliant boarding) by helicopter.​

15. VBSS tactics for maritime interdiction is typically executed by the navy (or marines), & SF (or SF capable) teams — due to inherent risk. Recently, White House Spokesman John Kirby confirmed that 2 US Navy Seals are missing in the water off the coast of Somalia while conducting VBSS. For 10 days, airborne and naval platforms from the U.S., Japan, and Spain continuously searched more than 21,000 square miles in an attempt to locate the 2 missing SEAL team members, who are now declared lost at sea.

(a) Teams are trained to varying levels of proficiency in VBSS but the Houthi heliborne team who sized the merchant vessel is not seen as sufficiently proficient in their TTPs to conduct an opposed maritime interdiction.​

​

(b) In Operation Dawn of Gulf of Aden, ROK Naval SF teams retook MV Samho Jewelry in a fierce fire fight on 21 Jan 2011. The 2011 recapture of MV Samho Jewelry from 13 pirates off the Somali coast by the Republic of South Korea (ROK) Navy’s SF teams is an opposed maritime interdiction. The Korean Naval SF killed 8 of the pirates & captured 5.​

16. An alert ship security team on Maersk Hangzhou was able to stop the Houthi attempts to board the vessel in the Red Sea by firing warning shots on 31 Dec 2023. Helicopters from USS Dwight D. Eisenhower and USS Gravely responded to the distress call from Maersk Hangzhou and the US Navy sank 3 of the 4 attack skiffs.

 

[koxinga]

In the context of @Redshift 's statement, he used "airborne" as a verb to describe the method of insertion (e.g airborne landing) rather than airborne as a noun e.g special trained airborne troops

 

[Redshift]

In the context of @Redshift 's statement, he used "airborne" as a verb to describe the method of insertion (e.g airborne landing) rather than airborne as a noun e.g special trained airborne troops

I wrote "carried out an airborne landing from a Heli on a ship"

The verb is "to carry", in this case I used the past tense "carried", "airborne" is a description of how it was carried out as airborne is an adjective not a verb , to use it as a verb my sentence would have been :

"airborned a landing from a Heli on a ship" which is not very good English to say the least.

I am happy to be admonished for the incorrect military use of the description "airborne" but I did not use it as a verb.

 

[Feanor]

It's also possible the Houthis have parachute-qualified personnel. They absorbed much of the former Yemeni Armed Forces. Whether they'd still be proficient in a parachute landing scenario after years is unclear (probably not).

 

[OPSSG]

You are right about the headline picture to the video, from what I have seen elsewhere the Houthi have a lot of modern looking gear and as you say carried out an airborne landing from a Heli on a ship.

Q: Do you still think the Houthis have modern gear?

Ans: That cannot be the case, especially after I explained what is VBSS (along with a linked video) & I gave you an example of proper naval SF TTPs used in an opposed VBSS. Let me add some basic points:

​

One, use of “technicals” like trucks with guns mounted is not an indication of force modernity. A parade full of Iranian rockets or ballistic missiles is not a sign of combined arms capability or competence in war (when compared to a South American drug cartel).​

​

Two, U.S. CENTCOM has the proven capability to destroy Houthi anti-ship missiles while at the launcher. Dynmaic targeting to enable launcher destruction is more important that just attacking missile stocks. Iran was able to reverse engineer the Russian Kh-55 cruise missile. Iran’s simplified and scaled down version was built using a commercial turbojet engine in model aircraft was supplied to the Houthis — a low cost missile with low effectiveness.​

​

Three, in the VBSS conducted, the Houthi boarding team were lucky not to crash their Mi-8/Mi-17 onto the deck of the non-cooperative vessel at boarding. The gear used by the Houthis is neither “high speed”, nor are their TTPs appropriate (when seen from a professional angle). If the Galaxy Leader helmsman had steered away or changed wind over deck conditions, their Mi-8/Mi-17 could have easily crashed — the planning for their VBSS leaves much to be desired from a safety or even security angle, as there was no sniper or overwatch fire support team. The Houthis are relying on luck more than on skill. This is not an indication of competence.​

 

[OPSSG]

In the context of @Redshift 's statement, he used "airborne" as a verb to describe the method of insertion (e.g airborne landing) rather than airborne as a noun e.g special trained airborne troops

I am happy to be admonished for the incorrect military use of the description "airborne" but I did not use it as a verb.

1. Cheers & thanks for correcting @koxinga.

2. As you are well aware, the Houthis:

(a) are not pirates. They are Iran-backed terrorists armed with cruise missiles, ballistic missiles & UAVs that are threatening movement of cargoes through the Red Sea and the Suez. The Houthis are making it quite dangerous for crews, as both MV Chem Pluto and Pacific Zircon were likely hit in the stern in the area by Iran made/designed Shahed 136 UAVs; &​

​

(b) have managed to accomplish absolutely nothing for Gaza with their blockade because it was never about Gaza in the first place. Instead they have inadvertently blocked aid to Sudan, where 20+ million Muslims are trapped in an ongoing brutal civil war.​

3. I have a recommendation for your posts — please consider the use a thesaurus, it may help in your selection of words. Alternatively, change your sentence structure (see proposed <<sample text>> below) to avoid confusion & search for the more appropriate word than "airborne", as it is also as term of art.

… I have seen elsewhere the Houthi have a lot of modern looking gear and as you say carried out <<a heli-mobile boarding onto>> the ship…

4. Don’t be like UN team in Yemen, tweeting about how well their monitoring mission is going while M/V Galaxy Leader, a vessel hijacked by Ansarallah jihadists (aka the Houthis) is visible in the background. Both the UN & the Houthis are not deserving of any praise.

 

[koxinga]

Three, in the VBSS conducted, the Houthi boarding team were lucky not to crash their Mi-8/Mi-17 onto the deck of the non-cooperative vessel at boarding. The gear used by the Houthis is neither “high speed”, nor are their TTPs appropriate (when seen from a professional angle). If the Galaxy Leader helmsman had steered away or changed wind over deck conditions, their Mi-8/Mi-17 could have easily crashed — the planning for their VBSS leaves much to be desired from a safety or even security angle, as there was no sniper or overwatch fire support team. The Houthis are relying on luck more than on skill. This is not an indication of competence.

To be precise, heli insert TTP for VBSS usually means fast-ropping the operators for safety reasons as you mentioned.

But regardless of their "cowboy style" approach, it got the job done.

An opponent that is not constrainted by things like safety and take unnecessary risks can be seen as incompetent and "unprofessional", but at the same time, extremely dangerous. Because they will try stuff that "professionals" won't and create an element of surprise.

It's like 9/11; I doubt any professional military, even the Soviets at the height of the cold war would think of hijacking planes and ramping them into infrastructure. But 19 men and their backers with a few hundred thousand dollars (less than a fighter jet) cause more harm and damage to the US and the rest world than any military.

 

[OPSSG]

To be precise, heli insert TTP for VBSS usually means fast-ropping the operators for safety reasons as you mentioned.

But regardless of their "cowboy style" approach, it got the job done.

Thanks for agreeing in substance with me — that TTPs are wrong.

As another Bunker member noted in this thread, the poster I replied to tends to twist the words of others too — hence the request to do a bit of reading on the topic & make the thread more interesting. Frankly, it is tiresome to see you gang up to misrepresent what I am saying.

An opponent that is not constrainted by things like safety and take unnecessary risks can be seen as incompetent and "unprofessional", but at the same time, extremely dangerous. Because they will try stuff that "professionals" won't and create an element of surprise.

Yes, it’s called learn by dying — same as suicide bombing by ISIS, on the dying part. There must be a virgin shortage in the versions of heaven for ISIS and Houthi supporters. The US conducting regular air strikes in Yemen is now a non-event. Hardly news worthy, as it would not move the needle — due to lack of political will by Biden to adopt stronger measures.

I am equally amused by 3 of the 4 Houthi boats who fired at US Navy helicopters, who also learned by dying. Historically, a far more capable navy has tried to use suicide attacks against the US Navy — they were called Shinpū Tokubetsu Kōgekitai and part of the Japanese Special Attack Units in WWII. They still lost the war using Kamikaze attacks. It’s not even new, as a tactic.

It's like 9/11; I doubt any professional military, even the Soviets at the height of the cold war would think of hijacking planes and ramping them into infrastructure. But 19 men and their backers with a few hundred thousand dollars (less than a fighter jet) cause more harm and damage to the US and the rest world than any military.

You’ve now placed the Houthis in the same category as 9-11 attackers & you help serve my earlier purpose of highlighting that on 10 Jan 2024 UNSC Resolution 2722 (2024) was passed; where the UN security council by demands Houthis immediately stop attacks on merchant, commercial vessels in Red Sea.

Thank you for the round about way of agreeing. It was amusing to see you being corrected on what is a verb (friendly fire from the person you supported) but that is not the main point of a VBSS discussion.

 

[Redlands18]

Denmark sends frigate to the Red Sea - Naval News
Denmark is the latest country to send a warship to the Red Sea, the Iver Huitfeldt. They are fitted with SM-2MR and ESSM in 24 Mk 41 VLS and advanced SMART-L and Thales APAR radars.

 

[Delta204]

Phalanx CIWS deployed on a Houthi missile just seconds from hitting a US warship | CNN

Noteworthy story reported by CNN that USS Gravely required the use of it's Phalanx CIWS to destroy a Houthi cruise missile that got as close to a mile of the warship. Haven't read any further details on what led to this close encounter; perhaps it was a mis-identified target (until it got close enough) similar to the recent attack on a US base in Jordan? Concerning development regardless and likely highlights the extreme level of awareness required by escorts operating in the area.

 

[John Fedup]

This article highlights the cost and limitations of missile defence. Using 2-4 million dollar missiles to intercept cheap UAV/ cruise missiles is economically unsustainable. Time to attack the source is long overdue.

Navy Has Fired Around 100 Standard Series Missiles At Houthi Drones, Missiles: Report

The Navy firing off many multi-million-dollar missiles highlights cost and capacity concerns that could play factor in a fight against China.

www.twz.com