Hamas-Israeli War 2023

[Feanor]

A passing thought on the issue of Israeli hostages in Gaza.

Hamas doesn't need 250 hostages. But it does need some hostages. Final releases, if they'll occur at all, will be significantly more difficult. I assume Hamas will want to maintain at least some tens of hostages to maintain leverage on Israel. Their primary goal should be the maintenance of existence of its higher command in Gaza, including Mohammad Deif and Yahya Sinwar. They could keep them permanently and threaten to execute them if those leaders are killed. It will then be a gamble on how Israel will respond. It will be a challenge for Hamas to find the cutoff number of hostages which will deter Israel from aggressive military action.

Would it work though? Clearly the damage done by Hamas recently shows that they're a threat out of all proportion to the lives of even tens of hostages. Their civilian murder toll is in 4 digits. From where I sit this should not be a significant factor. If this is all Hamas has in favor of being allowed to exist, they shouldn't be allowed to exist. Especially considering the messaging, if you're a terrorist you're a target, but if you're a terrorist with hostages you're safe. Just need enough of them.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Would it work though? Clearly the damage done by Hamas recently shows that they're a threat out of all proportion to the lives of even tens of hostages. Their civilian murder toll is in 4 digits. From where I sit this should not be a significant factor. If this is all Hamas has in favor of being allowed to exist, they shouldn't be allowed to exist. Especially considering the messaging, if you're a terrorist you're a target, but if you're a terrorist with hostages you're safe. Just need enough of them.

Many Israelis will agree with you. Many won't. I assume at some point we will move on, but the matters of Hamas's destruction and the release of at least most hostages, are short term issues. As such one cannot happen without relation to the other.
While Israel is a nation that is willing to take some risk to its troops and civilians to eradicate Hamas, it's also a nation that released 1,027 convicted terrorists, murderers, and criminals to release just 1 Israeli hostage in 2011.
Sometimes the value of human life works to our detriment, but it does help to maintain national unity, which has a tremendous value of its own.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 3 of 4: Hostage negotiations & psychological warfare by Hamas

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1729494020433256949

7. During this pause in fighting, Hamas has:

(a) fired rockets at Israeli civilians;​

(b) opened fire on Israeli soldiers;​

(c) violated the conditions of the hostage-for-prisoners deal by refusing to release mothers & their children together; &​

(d) conducted 2 small scale attacks on 2 different IDF positions (to gain from the pause), in the process hurting some Israeli troops.​

8. I initially predicted a 4 to 7 day pause in fighting. Currently, the agreed pause in fighting between Hamas & Israel is 6 days (i.e. 4+2 = 6), unless CIA Director Bill Burns can help Israel get more out of Hamas.

​

(a) Too many people are not reading the room correctly (aka the IDF & US DoD), as their brains are full of Hamas propaganda.​

​

(b) PIJ’s renewed submission to Hamas’ command to stop fighting is an indication that Iran supports the ceasefire. Except for the Houthis were late in getting the memo, Iran’s proxies, including Hezbollah, have largely ceased firing.​

​

(c) How far both sides will be prepared to go in trading hostages for the pause in fighting beyond day 6 will be tested soon. There is pressure put on the IDF by the Biden administration & strong incentives for Hamas to stick with the pause. At the moment the incentives to pause is stronger than to go back to war.​

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1729180636554936510

9. Burns and the head of Israel’s Mossad spy agency David Barnea were in Doha on 28 Nov 2023 (Tues) to hold talks with Qatar’s Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani and Egyptian officials.

 

[2007yellow430]

I heard on the news that the IDF had shot and killed a 9 year old boy. Give that act, and I’m sure the Israeli government won’t do a thing to the person wielding the gun, expect a lot more terrorists acts. This isn’t going to end well. Palestinian child shot dead by Israeli sniper in Jenin - Jordan News | Latest News from Jordan, MENA

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Give that act, and I’m sure the Israeli government won’t do a thing to the person wielding the gun

1. What makes you so sure the IDF does not prosecute its soldiers?
2. What makes you so sure prosecution is necessary in this instance?

It seems odd to me that the footage is from a security camera that records constantly, yet the video is only 2 seconds long. By odd I mean of course far too suspicious.

Clearer, longer video of the incident:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1729875174487675230

 

[2007yellow430]

1. What makes you so sure the IDF does not prosecute its soldiers?
2. What makes you so sure prosecution is necessary in this instance?

It seems odd to me that the footage is from a security camera that records constantly, yet the video is only 2 seconds long. By odd I mean of course far too suspicious.

Clearer, longer video of the incident:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1729875174487675230

they haven’t done much in the past. Killing via sniper of a 9 year is on its face horrendous. Period. Your post says it all.

Art

 

[Big_Zucchini]

they haven’t done much in the past.

Can you substantiate that claim with:
1. A case that was clear cut with footage.
2. An explanation of the result of the legal process.
3. An opinion of what should have happened instead.
4. Explanation of why that case is a trend and not an outlier.

The IDF is known for many things but not for being lenient toward misconduct of its soldiers.

Killing via sniper of a 9 year is on its face horrendous.

Yes, it is horrendous. But weapons don't discriminate. If a child holds a weapon and intends to use it, and there is no way to disarm him, then horrendous things will happen.

Your post says it all.

Thank you. I do my best to provide context and credible sources for such events.

 

[2007yellow430]

Can you substantiate that claim with:
1. A case that was clear cut with footage.
2. An explanation of the result of the legal process.
3. An opinion of what should have happened instead.
4. Explanation of why that case is a trend and not an outlier.

The IDF is known for many things but not for being lenient toward misconduct of its soldiers.


Yes, it is horrendous. But weapons don't discriminate. If a child holds a weapon and intends to use it, and there is no way to disarm him, then horrendous things will happen.


Thank you. I do my best to provide context and credible sources for such events.

Watchdog: Under 1% of Israel army probes yield prosecution

***

www.haaretz.com

https://www.btselem.org/publications/summaries/201903_gaza_demonstrations_investigations_charade

I think they cover it well (Failure to prosecute).

Art

 

[John Fedup]

they haven’t done much in the past. Killing via sniper of a 9 year is on its face horrendous. Period. Your post says it all.

Art

Don’t know any details about this whether the media source is valid or not. I would ask this question however, even if the kid had his age painted on his forehead, if he had an RPG aimed at your soldiers or civilians, should the sniper still take the shot?

 

[2007yellow430]

Don’t know any details about this whether the media source is valid or not. I would ask this question however, even if the kid had his age painted on his forehead, if he had an RPG aimed at your soldiers or civilians, should the sniper still take the shot?

watch the video. Doesn’t show a gun. Period.

Art

 

[John Fedup]

watch the video. Doesn’t show a gun. Period.

Art

It doesn’t show much at all other than him getting shot. What was happening a minute before this event? If he threw away a launcher before the shot as made then what?

We aren’t there so we don’t know Jack. Just my two cents.

 

[2007yellow430]

It doesn’t show much at all other than him getting shot. What was happening a minute before this event? If he threw away a launcher before the shot as made then what?

We aren’t there so we don’t know Jack. Just my two cents.

at the time he was shot he was not armed. Period. Even if he had a weapon earlier (not saying he did) he did not have one then. There was at least 4-5 seconds while he was fleeing, more than enough time for the IDF sniper to adjust, draw your own conclusions. BTW looks like the sniper shot him in the back.

Art

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Watchdog: Under 1% of Israel army probes yield prosecution

***

www.haaretz.com

https://www.btselem.org/publications/summaries/201903_gaza_demonstrations_investigations_charade

I think they cover it well (Failure to prosecute).

Art

That seems like a very cherrypicked number. Yesh Din have an updating report on the years 2005-2022. Haaretz focuses on 2017-2021 for some reason. Within those years, anyone can pick any specific time with either a dip or a peak in statistics and surely these would paint very different pictures.
This is the Yesh Din website:

יש דין - ארגון מתנדבים לזכויות אדם

www.yesh-din.org

In it, the following report is highlighted:

https://s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/files.yesh-din.org/law+data+dec+22/Law+data+22+HEB.pdf

Yesh Din write that they followed 1,531 cases, in which 7% ended in conviction. However they only participated in 91 cases, of which 50% ended in partial or full conviction.
Don't worry about the Hebrew, I'll translate.

(Yesh Din legal case results between 2005-2022, 91 completed legal processes, 13% full conviction, 13% conviction with plea bargain, 24% partial conviction, 22% guilt without conviction, 20% dropped criminal charges, 8% acquittal).

It is possible they prioritized cases in which they were confident they could succeed, which in turn could mean better evidence in those cases. This leads to the following data point. We can see that only 8% of cases were dropped because suspects were not found guilty. Vast majority is a lack of evidence.


(Reasons for closure of investigations between 2005-2022, 64% unknown perpetrator identity, 21% lacking evidence, 8% lack of guilt, 4% other reasons)

Now let's see if there is any apparent bias here. Maybe Israel's police just doesn't like Palestinians and closes cases unjustly.
We can see from this snippet here that although cases of nationalistic crimes against non-Palestinians (9.5%) are more likely to end in conviction than the same for Palestinian victims (2.6% - Police, 2.4% - Yesh Din), those are still low numbers that tell us more about the process of investigation rather than any biases.


(Chances of an investigation leading to conviction in cases of Jewish nationalism related criminal cases in the West Bank in 2021. Yesh Din data - 2.4% for Palestinian victims. Police data - 2.6% for Palestinian victims, 9.5% for non-Palestinian victims)

watch the video. Doesn’t show a gun. Period.

We see another kid holding what is likely an explosive device. Both kids seem to have been hit at the same time and it is possible the bullet may have pierced one and hit the other. The trajectory and direction they were looking at seems to support it.

I think at this point, this war and the many events around it, have shown us that things usually aren't as they first appear.

 

[2007yellow430]

That seems like a very cherrypicked number. Yesh Din have an updating report on the years 2005-2022. Haaretz focuses on 2017-2021 for some reason. Within those years, anyone can pick any specific time with either a dip or a peak in statistics and surely these would paint very different pictures.
This is the Yesh Din website:

יש דין - ארגון מתנדבים לזכויות אדם

www.yesh-din.org

In it, the following report is highlighted:

https://s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/files.yesh-din.org/law+data+dec+22/Law+data+22+HEB.pdf

Yesh Din write that they followed 1,531 cases, in which 7% ended in conviction. However they only participated in 91 cases, of which 50% ended in partial or full conviction.
Don't worry about the Hebrew, I'll translate.
View attachment 50975
(Yesh Din legal case results between 2005-2022, 91 completed legal processes, 13% full conviction, 13% conviction with plea bargain, 24% partial conviction, 22% guilt without conviction, 20% dropped criminal charges, 8% acquittal).

It is possible they prioritized cases in which they were confident they could succeed, which in turn could mean better evidence in those cases. This leads to the following data point. We can see that only 8% of cases were dropped because suspects were not found guilty. Vast majority is a lack of evidence.

View attachment 50974
(Reasons for closure of investigations between 2005-2022, 64% unknown perpetrator identity, 21% lacking evidence, 8% lack of guilt, 4% other reasons)

Now let's see if there is any apparent bias here. Maybe Israel's police just doesn't like Palestinians and closes cases unjustly.
We can see from this snippet here that although cases of nationalistic crimes against non-Palestinians (9.5%) are more likely to end in conviction than the same for Palestinian victims (2.6% - Police, 2.4% - Yesh Din), those are still low numbers that tell us more about the process of investigation rather than any biases.

View attachment 50978
(Chances of an investigation leading to conviction in cases of Jewish nationalism related criminal cases in the West Bank in 2021. Yesh Din data - 2.4% for Palestinian victims. Police data - 2.6% for Palestinian victims, 9.5% for non-Palestinian victims)


We see another kid holding what is likely an explosive device. Both kids seem to have been hit at the same time and it is possible the bullet may have pierced one and hit the other. The trajectory and direction they were looking at seems to support it.

I think at this point, this war and the many events around it, have shown us that things usually aren't as they first appear.

I believe you’ve described manslaughter at best or murder. (manslaughter. n. the unlawful killing of another person without premeditation or so-called "malice aforethought" (an evil intent prior to the killing). It is distinguished from murder (which brings greater penalties) by lack of any prior intention to kill anyone or create a deadly situation.)

Bets on whether or not the IDF sniper prosecuted? it look quite clear to me.

Art

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I believe you’ve described manslaughter at best or murder. (manslaughter. n. the unlawful killing of another person without premeditation or so-called "malice aforethought" (an evil intent prior to the killing). It is distinguished from murder (which brings greater penalties) by lack of any prior intention to kill anyone or create a deadly situation.)

Bets on whether or not the IDF sniper prosecuted? it look quite clear to me.

Art

If indeed manslaughter, then high chance he'll be guilty without conviction, and the state will provide compensation to the family.

There is no reason to convict a soldier, even if his conduct resulted in someone's death, if he properly followed RoE.

That's different from a civilian as soldiers are put in dangerous situations.

 

[ngatimozart]

Would it work though? Clearly the damage done by Hamas recently shows that they're a threat out of all proportion to the lives of even tens of hostages. Their civilian murder toll is in 4 digits. From where I sit this should not be a significant factor. If this is all Hamas has in favor of being allowed to exist, they shouldn't be allowed to exist. Especially considering the messaging, if you're a terrorist you're a target, but if you're a terrorist with hostages you're safe. Just need enough of them.

I think that Israel should eliminate all of HAMAS it can. Causalities occur in war and murder of surviving the hostages is collateral damage that Israel has to accept, otherwise in the future HAMAS or other groups will do a Lazurus and repeat with more hostages in the future. That's a cold brutal assessment of mine, but you have to draw the line somewhere.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Kfir Bibas, a 10 month old baby, was reportedly executed by Hamas and his remains will be transferred to Israel.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1730230482531504137

 

[OPSSG]

they haven’t done much in the past. Killing via sniper of a 9 year is on its face horrendous. Period. Your post says it all.

Art

1. Art, in this post, I am not justifying IDF action. Rather, I am just sharing a link from a source that has videos of the ROE shoot by aimed marksmen. BTW, X is not allowing me to share the video directly but you can trace the link provided.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1729875346013737046

2. This was posted by @Funker530 specifically to combat the viral sharing of the second angle, which doesn’t provide the explosives context. There are two separate videos of two separate teens who get engaged by the IDF within 20m of each other near simultaneously.

3. These are two separate videos that @Funker530 put together to give the context to the ROEs. I generally do not like to look at or like share such graphic content but you seem to be rather emotional about a ROE shoot — with a hostile crowd acting against an IDF operation that is ongoing. I would assume, these teens killed are supplied by adult militants with pipe bombs — as these are made, & were being thrown by the teens at the IDF.

4. I also don’t think there is enough information to call every aimed shot by IDF designated marksman, as a sniper kill. You claim prior service in your posts, so you would be familiar with the lingo and the concept of ROEs.

5. In other news and as part of the normal attempt at psychological warfare, Hamas as an unusually cruel terror group, just released a video of the Bibas family father. On the video they tell Yarden Bibas, his entire family is killed.

• Kfir - 10-month-old baby
• Ariel - 4-years-old
• Shiri - Wife (32)

6. Yarden Bibas in Hamas captivity is weeping over his murdered wife & 2 babies. He is also seen in a video released by the terror group begging to have his children buried in Israel. This is the routine of psychological torture being inflicted by Hamas on Israel and X is doing little or nothing to shut down these videos being spread by Hamas supporters as part of this cult of death.

​

(a) Israel asked Hamas to return Yarden Bibas to Israel. Hamas refused. The goal of Hamas, it seems, is to enrage Israeli politicians to make one or two unnecessary remarks, when operations against Hamas are due to resume soon.​

​

(b) Meanwhile, Hamas' armed wing Al Qassam Brigades has claimed responsibility for deadly Jerusalem attack (that killed 3 and wounded 6 others), has called for escalation. This 30 Nov 2023 attack took place at the entrance to the city during the morning rush hour.​

​

(c) The ‘Islamic Resistance in Iraq,’ a grouping of militias and front groups of Iran, also issued a statement warning it will resume attacks inside and outside of Iraq if Israel restarts attacks against Hamas.​

7. The Singapore Govt has deployed a RSAF A330MRTT to deliver humanitarian supplies (for civilians in Gaza) to El Arish International Airport, in Egypt, while supply lines remain open. Singaporeans have contributed a total of more than S$7 million in cash & in-kind donations to support relief efforts in Gaza.

8. IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says the military is ready to resume fighting in the Gaza Strip if the ceasefire agreement with Hamas is not renewed for another day.

"At this hour we are progressing and awaiting the release of additional hostages who are due to return…”​

 

[2007yellow430]

Kfir Bibas, a 10 month old baby, was reportedly executed by Hamas and his remains will be transferred to Israel.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1730230482531504137

this is terrible. As with the Israeli pulling this type of crap, the individual or individuals responsible need to be executed.

Art

 

[OPSSG]

this is terrible. As with the Israeli pulling this type of crap, the individual or individuals responsible need to be executed.

Art

Let me be clear, your posts are just raw emotion without the needed filter for any analysis of Operation Swords of Iron to occur. We will discuss this war professionally, with due regard to ROEs and forum rules.

Take time way from this forum, if you are not able to be objective on the ROEs (expected of the IDF) for this war in Gaza and the West Bank.