Hamas-Israeli War 2023

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Apparently, Israel is floating an idea of building an artificial off Gaza with the island having an international shipping cargo port and an international airport. It hasn't been approved by the Israeli Cabinet yet with some members believed to be passionately opposed to it.

However, if one steps back from the inevitable politics and look at it from a purely unpolitical viewpoint, the idea does have some merit.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Apparently, Israel is floating an idea of building an artificial off Gaza with the island having an international shipping cargo port and an international airport. It hasn't been approved by the Israeli Cabinet yet with some members believed to be passionately opposed to it.

However, if one steps back from the inevitable politics and look at it from a purely unpolitical viewpoint, the idea does have some merit.
I guess China won't be providing their expertise in building artificial islands. ;)
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Security cam footage shows captured IDF vehicles brought to Shifa hospital. Medical staff are evidently aware of the victims' presence and one can even be seen holding a hostage likely by his neck.

Shifa hospital has both local and foreign volunteering mecial staff, and according to the hippocratic oath they were obligated to act somehow against these wrongdoings. At the very least inform the UN if not Israeli authorities.
 
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swerve

Super Moderator
What does the IDF think was the reason for the Israelis being taken there? One explanation could be medical treatment, if Hamas wants to keep hostages as hostages.

And what do people expect the medical staff to do? Treat them? Or risk their own lives, & perhaps others, such as their families?

Or is the IDF saying they're now hidden in tunnels under the hospital? Again, do they really expect the staff to be heroes?
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
What does the IDF think was the reason for the Israelis being taken there? One explanation could be medical treatment, if Hamas wants to keep hostages as hostages.
Short version:
It was essentially a bunker with connections they knew would be immune for a while.

Long version:
The general belief is that Hamas had a human target bank of their own or at the very least a well defined categorisation system to determine which person is designated for death, which is designated for rape, and which is designated for kidnap. Females were usually raped and that left many of them severely injured and unfit for kidnap, so those were executed. But some who endured with minor injuries seem to have been taken as hostages. It is likely those designated as hostages were either only raped by a single person, or only for a short amount of time.
Males documented going into Gaza did not seem to be seriously injured or bleeding, and children and elderly also seem to have gone largely unscathed. Likely as they are much more sensitive to injuries. Those who weren't kidnapped were thoroughly dismembered and burnt, supporting this theory of prior designation.

One reason why Gazan workers were detained for so long for interrogation was the fact Hamas knew the amount and type of people in each house they raided.
So I'm going for now with this theory which makes most sense to me. This leads me to believe that either they would not need any serious equipment to treat lightly injured hostages and could suffice with a doctor's checkup, or would need fridges to store bodies of those they brought dead (for example Shani Louk was already dead when they took her). But they were seen bringing living people clearly in condition to run, not on stretchers.

The reason the IDF believes hostags were taken there, and the reason I believe too, is that hospitals are a safe space for keeping hostages. Shifa had significant Hamas presence and C2 which allowed them to coordinate moves. It may also have more extensive tunnel networks that may facilitate some evacuation, and the IDF would not target a hospital, especially with strikes against tunnels that could collapse the entire complex.

And what do people expect the medical staff to do? Treat them? Or risk their own lives, & perhaps others, such as their families?
Treat them and alert NGOs or Israel.
There is no direct punishment for breaking the hippocratic oath, so I can't expect them to follow it. But if it did matter to them, they could try contact the ICRC, WHO, or Israeli authorities and at least provide them some information like identities and status of the hostages.

Or is the IDF saying they're now hidden in tunnels under the hospital? Again, do they really expect the staff to be heroes?
Hostage holding areas were found in hospital basements. They MAY be held in tunnels. So far footage cuts off at a blast door under Shifa. I guess we'll see when more footage is available.
The staff are likely un-involved past first treatment. A former Shifa doctor said certain areas of the hospital were strictly off-limits.


Rocket production in a mosque:

Hamassies reportedly randomly firing at residential buildings for PR:

Expansion of IDF operations in Gaza briefly shown below. Shujaiyah, located between the yellow circle (Zaytoun) and Israel, is one of Hamas's fortresses and where much of the fighting in 2014's Operation Protective Edge occurred. Jabaliyah is also a stronghold for Hamas. Although along the way the IDF fought in extremely dense and difficult areas like Shati, its encirclement of northern Gaza via the coastline has effectively allowed it to choke Hamas's strongholds which likely prepared for an invasion from the east as was in 2014.

Terror infrastructure goes boom boom, we can see burning solid propellant going up from left of the explosion center:

Just a cool photo of a David's Sling launch:

 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Destroying a Conception

"Conception" is perhaps the most common word in Israeli news and the mouths of Israeli military and policy experts on TV.
For as long as any Israeli remembers Hamas's violent takeover of Gaza in 2007, Israeli political and military leadership shared what is known as the "conception".
Before we answer what is this new conception, let's look at its older variant, because it's not the first time the word conception gains such prominence in Israel's public mindset.
What the old conception (1971) was:
  1. Egypt will not attack Israel until it gathers sufficient air power to neutralize Israel's air force and attack deep in Israel.
  2. Syria will not attack Israel unless in coordination and simultaneously with Egypt.
From this conception, one could derive point #3 which asserts that Syria is no longer a threat either. Although Syria did indeed attack near simultaneously with Egypt, it happened while Israel did not consider either to be an imminent threat, and Israeli border presence was woefully inadequate.

The current form of "conception" is different in many ways, but it relies on the same principle by which Israel may be surprised by its enemies, but Israel's clear military superiority severely limits the extent of "surprise" or damage to Israel. It acts as a form of strategic depth in its own way. A similar idea persists in Europe for example, although it is much more acute - Europeans only perceive their armed forces to be superior to potential enemies', while Israel at least does have a de facto military superiority over its enemies.

The current conception relies on the following pillars:
  • Transformation of Israel's enemies from states backed by superpowers to localized terrorist organizations has removed the "existential" aspect of the threat to Israel.
  • Israel does not want to rule over Palestinians.
  • Terrorism problem in Palestine is too complex to solve alone, and is therefore to be managed, not fixed.
  • Terrorism can be managed by "mowing the grass" of their military capabilities instead of thorough dismantling of their structure.
  • Terrorism can be managed by appeasement.
  • Persistent friction with terrorists is an acceptable alternative to war.
  • Carrot and stick approach can deter Palestinians from terrorism and incentivize cooperation with Israel.

What this effectively meant was that Israel would somehow react when provoked, but only in a very limited manner, and Hamas's buildup was left pretty much unchecked. In all previous wars and operations like Protective Edge, Guardian of the Walls, Cast Lead, Cloud Pillar, and minor operations in between, the IDF's response to Hamas's rocket attacks was extremely contained in all aspects.
How the conception manifested vs Hamas:
  • Geography - only very limited areas in Gaza were attacked.
  • Manpower - tens to hundreds KIA to Hamas and PIJ who collectively have tens of thousands of combat personnel at any given time.
  • Assets - rocket launchers, ammo production, tunnels were hit in small numbers. More valuable targets left unscathed.
  • Management - Hamas's true leadership both in and out of Gaza was untouched.
  • Sponsorship - Hamas's sponsors could support them with no apparent repercussions.

The "conception" is a key source of public criticism toward the government, and to an extent the army. Netanyahu is seen as being too soft on Iran and Hezbollah as well, allowing Hezbollah to amass an arsenal that could pose immense risk to Israel and that would dwarf Hamas's by orders of magnitude, while Iran was allowed to become a nuclear threshold state, passing many milestones considered to be irreversible, particularly in terms of enriched material, short term enrichment capacity, and know-how for the entire chain of weapon production.
In 2022 then Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennet announced the "Octopus Doctrine".
We no longer play with the tentacles, with Iran’s proxies: we’ve created a new equation by going for the head.
With Netanyahu coming to power again in January 2023, this doctrine seems to have been very short lived.
He has ruled Israel since March 2009 continuously with the exception of a short, 18 month period between 2021-2022, and is therefore blamed for this conception.

What this conception means for Netanyahu:
  • The region is constantly primed for conflict but kept just below the escalatory threshold.
  • Netanyahu can thus claim to restore peace and be strong vs Hamas.
  • If opponents come to power he can blame them for any fluctuation that brings escalation and thus war, in turn raising his popularity.
  • By the time the threat will grow to enormous proportions, Netanyahu may already retire from political life willingly, letting successors take the fallout and prime the scene for his son's rise.
How Lapid-Bennet temporarily changed the equation:
  • Escalatory threshold was reduced drastically. Incendiary balloons that were unanswered by Netanyahu, were then met with airstrikes and tank fire into Gaza, as well as assassinations of commanders.
  • PA was internationally delegitimized, planting the roots for its leadership's eventual succession.
  • Focus and pressure on Hezbollah heightened with maritime delineation agreement with Lebanon.
  • Iran was designated the sponsor of regional terrorism including Hamas and PIJ and strike preparations resumed and peaked.
  • Overall military preparadeness set on a new upward trend.

What the elimination of the conception means for Israel's public and future governments:
  • Long term policy regarding Gaza, J&S, and Palestinians in general needs to be planned and presented to the public.
  • Terrorist groups like Hamas, PIJ, etc, cannot be allowed to persist, even at the cost of war.
  • A partner for peace does not exist in Palestine yet, needs to be nurtured as part of long term policy.
  • War now is better than deadlier war later.
  • Trust in intelligence and security services' work must be restored.
  • Existing "War Between Wars" must be expanded across region.
  • Qualitative gap between Israel and enemies must be in an upward trend.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 1 of 4: Hostage negotiations & psychological warfare by Hamas

1. Hostage release being delayed by Hamas
— the deal is not that complex, if there are issues, it is from Hamas not fulfilling their part. The meeting in Qatar ended without a list of hostages from Hamas. IMO, Hamas is playing games to buy time. Until the last of the hostages is released, the ICRC must be allowed to visit all of them. If the ICRC is unable to obtain signs of life, and verify their medical condition, the proposed 4 day pause will not hold.

2. Could be more psychological warfare by Hamas? Or that the leadership may not be in full control anymore —either way, this does not bode well for hostages held in Gaza.

3. A crowd of men in Gaza marching with white flags. Plus there are chants against Hamas (down with Hamas) which is something you don't normally see under a brutal terrorist dictatorship that previously had full control of the GAZA Strip.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
3. A crowd of men in Gaza marching with white flags. Plus there are chants against Hamas (down with Hamas) which is something you don't normally see under a brutal terrorist dictatorship that previously had full control of the GAZA Strip.
The dictatorship in question is losing the war they started without much reason. Their very existence is on the line.
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
An uprising against Hamas is something that should have happened many years ago, but even if successful, it's not a rosy situation. Gaza is full of armed gangs that will simply try to seize power instead of overthrow an oppressor. They too will remain a threat to Gazans and a security issue for Israel to deal with.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
The dictatorship in question is losing the war they started without much reason. Their very existence is on the line.
Yep, they grossly miscalculated on that front. This is evolution in action.
An uprising against Hamas is something that should have happened many years ago, but even if successful, it's not a rosy situation. Gaza is full of armed gangs that will simply try to seize power instead of overthrow an oppressor. They too will remain a threat to Gazans and a security issue for Israel to deal with.
Yes, and it could end up like Rio de Janeiro's favelas.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 2 of 4: Hostage negotiations & psychological warfare by Hamas

Israeli TV:
Egyptian reports of hostages (first party of 13) transferred to ICRC. They were scheduled for release at 4PM today.
4. The character of warfare & the way wars are made and conducted, is constantly evolving. Social, political, & technological change does impact the way wars are fought, from technology, weapons, tactics, laws, & norms but the nature of war in Gaza does not change.
(a) I remain optimistic that the hostage release pause can be extended slightly beyond the agreed 4 days. The war in Gaza is a human endeavour, pursued through a system of wills at a society level, through military force. Hamas wanted a fight. They will get it, once the hostage release triggered pause in fighting ends in 4 to 7 days.​
(b) Over the years, the threat from Hamas has grown to enormous proportions, because of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s failed policy of containment. He is already retire from political life, letting successors like Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid or Naftali Bennett take the fallout from Oct 7.​
(c) Containment failed & Oct 7 changed the will of Israeli society. On that day, Hamas ripped Israeli women & children from their homes after murdering, torturing, & raping their family members. These terrorists then held these hostages against their will, to film propaganda videos. After Oct 7, the IDF will take Hamas seriously. They will give a good go at trying to destroy Hamas.​
5. 50 women & children will be released in several groups over 4 day pause in the fighting in Gaza. That would leave about 190 hostages still in captivity in Gaza. For Israel, while there is a sigh of relief, the hostage crisis remains unchanged.
(a) Finally, some good news for 12 Thai families. The 12 Thai farm workers are in Israel to support their families back home. Glad to see that Team Biden was able to work with Egypt & Qatar to put pressure on Hamas to release some hostages. With the release of 12 Thai hostages, I remain hopeful that the pause would extend to the 7th day, in return for the release of 30 more hostages (at the rate of 10 for each additional day’s pause in fighting).​
(b) Not surprised that both US & UK report that none of their citizens are among the first group of hostages being released. Even if the planned trade of 50 is completed in full, hundreds of hostages will still be held in Gaza. Doron Katz Asher (34) and her daughters Raz (4), and Aviv (2) was amongst the 13 Israelis released today.​
(c) For 7 weeks Israelis have been begging the ICRC to make even an attempt to check on the state of the hostages. For 7 weeks the ICRC did nothing. Disgusting of the ICRC to parade hostages released this way. Insensitive, vile, awful. They could have put something over the windows. People with humanity, must demand unconditional release of all hostages before any ceasefire.​
(d) Among the hostages released by Hamas in this first round include Danielle Aloni (44), her daughter, Amelia Aloni (6), Ohad Mundar (9), his mother Keren Mundar (55), his old grandmother Ruti (78), Margalit Moses (77), & Adina Moshe (72). Hannah Katzir (77), who days ago was reported dead by PIJ, was freed tonight. It's a miracle for Hannah’s family and a nice surprise.​
(e) There are still dozens of children being held hostage by Hamas in Gaza. Some were literally torn from their parents dying arms. The youngest captive, Kfir Bibas was merely 9 months old, when he was kidnapped, & he is not in the 1st batch to be released. There’s a quite a difference from being a 9 month baby whose crime was being Israeli and a 16 year old Palestinian teen who stabbed an Israeli border police officer. This isn’t a hostage for hostage exchange.​
The dictatorship in question is losing the war they started without much reason. Their very existence is on the line.
6. As media focuses on possible partial hostage release from Hamas captivity after 47 days, let's not forget that:
(a) Israelis are under fire from Lebanon almost everyday;​
(b) this is the 7th round of war. The war in Gaza must not end like previous ones in a stalemate and a ceasefire, because a new round will be guaranteed. For even a slim chance of peace in Gaza Hamas must be defeated for its 7 Oct attacks before a ceasefire;​
(c) on Oct 7, 1,105 died; 851 of these are civilians (including 59 from the police force and 13 from the emergency services). There were complicating factors in the lengthy recognition process. Many bodies were mutilated, dismembered or burnt to ash. Some — in Kibbutzim shelters and cars fleeing the festival massacre — were so charred archaeologists were brought to help ID remains.​
 
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Boatteacher

Active Member
A recent poll by Arab World for Research and Development

https://www.awrad.org/files/server/... Poll - Gaza War 2023 - Tables of Results.pdf

Came up with some depressing results, which have been summarised [by a third party] as follows...




"There has been a recent study conducted by Arab World for Research and Development (AWRAD) among Palestinians living in Gaza and the West Bank, and the results are profoundly depressing.

AWRAD is an internationally respected research and consultancy agency based in Palestine.

Rejection of peace and reconciliation

The great majority are against peace with Israel on any terms:

75% support the October 7 massacre

85.9% reject coexistence with Israel

71.1% are committed to the restoration of “historical Palestine” as a final resolution

74.7% support the creation of a Palestinian state “from the river to the sea” as the only acceptable resolution of the conflict.

Support for terrorism

There is almost universal support for terror:

76% believe that Hamas plays a somewhat to very positive role

84% believe that Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) plays a somewhat to very positive role

79.8% believe that Fatah’s terror wing, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, plays a somewhat to very positive role

88.6% believe that Hamas’ armed wing, the Al-Kassam Brigades, plays a somewhat to very positive role.

Terror organisations have far higher support than Fatah

Fatah is hardly a force for moderation, but they are far too moderate for their own people:

87.3% of the Palestinians believe that the Palestinian Authority plays a negative role

Only 8.4% believe that the PA should govern the West Bank and Gaza

85.8% support Hamas continuing to play a role in the Palestinian government

13.6% support a Hamas-only government

72.2% support a “national unity” government of Fatah and Hamas.

Ingratitude and hostility towards aid providers

Negativity towards aid providers is extreme:

98.2% of Palestinians see the U.S. role as negative

96.7% consider the UK role as negative

92.6% consider the EU role as negative.

85.5% believe that these countries support Israel because of “hatred of Arabs

79.5% believe that support is the result of “hatred of Muslims and Islam”

More moderate Arab countries working towards peace are equally hated:

96% disapprove of the UAE

95.5% disapprove of Saudi Arabia

84.6% disapprove of Egypt

75.6% disapprove of Jordan.

Unrealistic views on the current military situation

As an indication of the levels of self-delusion in operation here:

72.6% said “Palestine” will win the current military conflict

3.1% said Israel will win.

Western fellow travellers are equally delusional

Since the outbreak of the current conflict I have heard western apologists claim 100 times that:

“Hamas is not Palestine - why should the ordinary people suffer when all they want is peace?

....

This study shows that ongoing conflict is precisely what the majority of Palestinians support - and the more brutal the better."

...
Unfortunately, the third party posted on Quora and I can't get a link of the post itself. There is a lot more detail in the study linked above, and the summary above doesn't quite follow the format of the survey itself. But the summary seems to be a reasonable attempt to pull out the results noted above
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
Gazans were seen today walking north toward the restricted areas (north of Wadi Aza). The IDF announced previously that it will maintain its current positions in Gaza and will permit Gazans to move south, but not the other way around.

According to this user, which so far has been fairly objective, Hamas has threatened Gazans to flee back north to challenge the IDF.

A recent poll by Arab World for Research and Development

https://www.awrad.org/files/server/... Poll - Gaza War 2023 - Tables of Results.pdf

Came up with some depressing results, which have been summarised [by a third party] as follows...
This is unfortunate, but expected. The only glimmers of stability this region has seen were under iron fist dictatorships. In some cases these were minorities at the helm - The Hashemites in Jordan (king Abdullah), the Sunnis in Iraq (Saddam Hussein), the Alawites in Syria (Bashar Assad). And yet, there was relative calm. At least much calmer compared to what Iraq and Syria are today. In a region that'll probably never be a second Europe, a ruthless dictator is the only guarantor of effective and sustained foreign policy. The PA are another example of such dictatorship.

Therefore I believe that in the end, the west will support a new government in Gaza no matter how ruthless it is to its own people, as long as it can maintain a semblance of stability. This essentially narrows down to a PA on steroids, and despite the many flaws of such solution, it is probably the best that can be for now.
 

Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
J&S is another area to watch. In the last couple years, the PA has lost control over several areas, primarily Jenin in which there are frequent military operations. Although violence spiked there since the war began, it could flare up significantly yet.

Apparently tonight there has been a public execution in Tulkarem, of people who allegedly assisted Israel.
Tulkarem is largely controlled by Hamas and it is right on the border between Israel and J&S.

Another video from the celebrations after the execution. Graphic footage, so be warned.
 
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OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
Part 1 of 2: Naftali Bennett’s thoughts on the war in Gaza

1. Let me say again, the nature of war in Gaza does not change. The amount of fire power that will be brought to bear after this pause in fighting will dwarf what has be unleashed so far.

2. Former Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has a good read of the sentiment of the IDF, as such, I have translated his Twit.
Naftali Bennett said:
Thanks to the IDF soldiers who are still in Gaza right now.

In my meetings with the fighters, I saw that our soldiers on the ground are alert and ready for a possibility in which Hamas may violate the cease-fire and may try to attack our forces as happened during the cease-fire during "Tzuk Eitan".

Our soldiers know that in such a case they act with full force without hesitation.

Two things I hear from every fighter in the field, always:
a. Let us finish the job of eliminating Hamas—it will take as long as it takes.

b. Stay united. No nonsense from last year.
**
We are all united around those who are expected to be released and around the heartbreaking expectation of the families of the abductees who will not be released yet.

It is impossible to imagine the suffering and uncertainty felt by the families of the soldiers, the old and the young, the grandmothers and grandfathers who are in captivity.

The people of Israel are all with one heart — a heart that hurts, loves & is determined.

Shabbat Shalom.

Naftali Bennett
 
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Big_Zucchini

Well-Known Member
A passing thought on the issue of Israeli hostages in Gaza.

Hamas doesn't need 250 hostages. But it does need some hostages. Final releases, if they'll occur at all, will be significantly more difficult. I assume Hamas will want to maintain at least some tens of hostages to maintain leverage on Israel. Their primary goal should be the maintenance of existence of its higher command in Gaza, including Mohammad Deif and Yahya Sinwar. They could keep them permanently and threaten to execute them if those leaders are killed. It will then be a gamble on how Israel will respond. It will be a challenge for Hamas to find the cutoff number of hostages which will deter Israel from aggressive military action.
 
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