Part 2 of 4: Hostage negotiations & psychological warfare by Hamas
Israeli TV:
Egyptian reports of hostages (first party of 13) transferred to ICRC. They were scheduled for release at 4PM today.
4. The character of warfare & the way wars are made and conducted, is constantly evolving. Social, political, & technological change does impact the way wars are fought, from technology, weapons, tactics, laws, & norms but the nature of war in Gaza does not change.
(a) I remain optimistic that the hostage release pause can be extended slightly beyond the agreed 4 days. The war in Gaza is a human endeavour, pursued through a system of wills at a society level, through military force. Hamas wanted a fight. They will get it, once the hostage release triggered pause in fighting ends in 4 to 7 days.
(b) Over the years, the threat from Hamas has grown to enormous proportions, because of Prime Minister Netanyahu’s failed policy of containment. He is already retire from political life, letting successors like Benny Gantz, Yair Lapid or Naftali Bennett take the fallout from Oct 7.
(c) Containment failed & Oct 7 changed the will of Israeli society. On that day, Hamas ripped Israeli women & children from their homes after murdering, torturing, & raping their family members. These terrorists then held these hostages against their will, to film propaganda videos. After Oct 7, the IDF will take Hamas seriously. They will give a good go at trying to destroy Hamas.
5. 50 women & children will be released in several groups over 4 day pause in the fighting in Gaza. That would leave about 190 hostages still in captivity in Gaza. For Israel, while there is a sigh of relief, the hostage crisis remains unchanged.
(a) Finally, some good news for 12 Thai families. The 12 Thai farm workers are in Israel to support their families back home. Glad to see that Team Biden was able to work with Egypt & Qatar to put pressure on Hamas to release some hostages. With the release of 12 Thai hostages, I remain hopeful that the pause would extend to the 7th day, in return for the release of 30 more hostages (at the rate of 10 for each additional day’s pause in fighting).
(b) Not surprised that both US & UK report that none of their citizens are among the first group of hostages being released. Even if the planned trade of 50 is completed in full, hundreds of hostages will still be held in Gaza. Doron Katz Asher (34) and her daughters Raz (4), and Aviv (2) was amongst the 13 Israelis released today.
(c) For 7 weeks Israelis have been begging the ICRC to make even an attempt to check on the state of the hostages. For 7 weeks the ICRC did nothing. Disgusting of the ICRC to parade hostages released this way. Insensitive, vile, awful. They could have put something over the windows. People with humanity, must demand unconditional release of all hostages before any ceasefire.
(d) Among the hostages released by Hamas in this first round include Danielle Aloni (44), her daughter, Amelia Aloni (6), Ohad Mundar (9), his mother Keren Mundar (55), his old grandmother Ruti (78), Margalit Moses (77), & Adina Moshe (72). Hannah Katzir (77), who days ago was reported dead by PIJ, was freed tonight. It's a miracle for Hannah’s family and a nice surprise.
(e) There are still dozens of children being held hostage by Hamas in Gaza. Some were literally torn from their parents dying arms. The youngest captive, Kfir Bibas was merely 9 months old, when he was kidnapped, & he is not in the 1st batch to be released. There’s a quite a difference from being a 9 month baby whose crime was being Israeli and a 16 year old Palestinian teen who stabbed an Israeli border police officer. This isn’t a hostage for hostage exchange.
The dictatorship in question is losing the war they started without much reason. Their very existence is on the line.
6. As media focuses on possible partial hostage release from Hamas captivity after 47 days, let's not forget that:
(a) Israelis are under fire from Lebanon almost everyday;
(b) this is the 7th round of war. The war in Gaza must not end like previous ones in a stalemate and a ceasefire, because a new round will be guaranteed. For even a slim chance of peace in Gaza Hamas must be defeated for its 7 Oct attacks before a ceasefire;
(c) on Oct 7, 1,105 died; 851 of these are civilians (including 59 from the police force and 13 from the emergency services). There were complicating factors in the lengthy recognition process. Many bodies were mutilated, dismembered or burnt to ash. Some — in Kibbutzim shelters and cars fleeing the festival massacre — were so charred archaeologists were brought to help ID remains.
