Royal Australian Navy Discussions and Updates 2.0

ASSAIL

The Bunker Group
Verified Defense Pro
Before this totally derailed thread gets back on topic…..In the early 1960s I was taught that Australia’s population had an absolute limit of 30million, it was impossible to feed ourselves beyond that!
Now, back to the RAN.
 

Morgo

Well-Known Member
Before this totally derailed thread gets back on topic…..In the early 1960s I was taught that Australia’s population had an absolute limit of 30million, it was impossible to feed ourselves beyond that!
Now, back to the RAN.
Sorry I can’t help myself. Simultaneously your teachers were right, and Australia can now sustain more than that:

Green Revolution - Wikipedia

Bringing it back on the RAN and the surface force review - I was watching the coverage of Albo in Shanghai, and the thought did occur to me that this would be a substantially more complicated meeting (and it may not have happened at all) if we had announced a massive naval buildup a couple of weeks before. I imagine this is playing into at least some of the thinking behind delaying the public release of the findings until next year ie create a bit of clear air either side of this visit.
 

hauritz

Well-Known Member
Sorry I can’t help myself. Simultaneously your teachers were right, and Australia can now sustain more than that:

Green Revolution - Wikipedia

Bringing it back on the RAN and the surface force review - I was watching the coverage of Albo in Shanghai, and the thought did occur to me that this would be a substantially more complicated meeting (and it may not have happened at all) if we had announced a massive naval buildup a couple of weeks before. I imagine this is playing into at least some of the thinking behind delaying the public release of the findings until next year ie create a bit of clear air either side of this visit.
To play the devil’s advocate and admittedly being somewhat optimistic you could take the view that a lot of what is happening with the Navy review is done behind closed doors. When you think about some of the really big decisions made over the last few years they have been conducted in complete secrecy.

The Attack class submarine was cancelled over night and AUKUS happened without any fanfare. The decision to buy Virginias and build AUKUS subs in Australia was kept under wraps. New Blackhawks to replace the NH90s came out of the blue. Elements of the DSR such as buying new long range missiles was acted on well before the public release of the paper. In other words just because public announcements haven’t been made it doesn’t mean that nothing is happening in the background.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Bringing it back on the RAN and the surface force review - I was watching the coverage of Albo in Shanghai, and the thought did occur to me that this would be a substantially more complicated meeting (and it may not have happened at all) if we had announced a massive naval buildup a couple of weeks before. I imagine this is playing into at least some of the thinking behind delaying the public release of the findings until next year ie create a bit of clear air either side of this visit.
Certainly timing and communication is a thing in diplomacy.
I don't think anyone was expecting a massive naval announcement while Albo was in China.

Honestly, anything we will now announce will be small fry. Even if we announced that Hunter is getting 96 VLS, and would arrive in 2024, it probably wouldn't make news outside Australia. Even if we announced the OPV was going to now be a 5000t frigate, it probably isn't that huge a deal. This alone isn't really big news for China, and Australia is very far away, and builds ships, slowly.

The big announcement for China was the AUKUS subs. That was big, attention getting announcement. Frankly France reacted bigger to it than China did. Arguably it was more world shifting for the French than it was for the Chinese.

Once Albo is back in a Australia, give it a few weeks, and we will be clear for any announcements we could think of.
 

Armchair

Active Member
To play the devil’s advocate and admittedly being somewhat optimistic you could take the view that a lot of what is happening with the Navy review is done behind closed doors. When you think about some of the really big decisions made over the last few years they have been conducted in complete secrecy.

The Attack class submarine was cancelled over night and AUKUS happened without any fanfare. The decision to buy Virginias and build AUKUS subs in Australia was kept under wraps. New Blackhawks to replace the NH90s came out of the blue. Elements of the DSR such as buying new long range missiles was acted on well before the public release of the paper. In other words just because public announcements haven’t been made it doesn’t mean that nothing is happening in the background.
It may also mean that decisions on surface fleet have been taken and they are lining up other announcements. If all the surface warships were to be built in Osborne, for example, they would need to have an announcement ready on amphibs (or something) for Henderson. If they need new consortia to build that could be going on too.

The Defence Minister visiting UK on Nov 4 committed again to continuous shipbuilding at Osborne


in another interview in the US he did not even bite on the Alexander Downer comments.
 

iambuzzard

Active Member
Sorry I can’t help myself. Simultaneously your teachers were right, and Australia can now sustain more than that:

Green Revolution - Wikipedia

Bringing it back on the RAN and the surface force review - I was watching the coverage of Albo in Shanghai, and the thought did occur to me that this would be a substantially more complicated meeting (and it may not have happened at all) if we had announced a massive naval buildup a couple of weeks before. I imagine this is playing into at least some of the thinking behind delaying the public release of the findings until next year ie create a bit of clear air either side of this visit.
It's actually sensible thinking. Don't antagonise China while you're visiting.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
I see a few comments on population growth, water and economic constraints. Since that is my day job (infrastructure planning) I’d like to comment as follows.

Birth rate and natural population growth rate has declined in all developed countries, especially as the proportion of women in higher education grows. In Australia there have been several times in the past three decades when the birth rate was below replacement level. Overall since 2000, about 75% of our population growth was due to immigration, which has been the primary driver of population growth since the 1950s. There is no sign of this slowing down because, despite the high house prices, Australia still has relatively high personal incomes, and surplus jobs, which is the main attractor of migrants.

Only around 1/3 of Australia’s land area is arable in terms of soil quality and water quantity. The rest is not viable for agriculture, and even some irrigated land would not be deemed good quality farmland in other countries, but survives because of historic (and dubious) allocations of irrigated water.

Despite this, Australia still produces far more food than it needs. About 70% of Australia’s food crops are exported. Hence Australia’s food supply is not a constraint to growth to more than double current population. This still assumes current areas of bush and national park would remain undisturbed.

Same with water supply. Whilst water here is scarce, there is still more than enough water for a much larger population. The main issue is the equity of water distribution and how much users pay for it. The main large scale uses of water are for agricuture and mining, not household consumption. For example, as one water scientist I knew pointed out while Adelaide was building a desalination plant, six large cotton farms near Deniliquin in NSW had a larger water allocation than metropolitan Adelaide (pop 1.3 million).

Put simply, rich countries don’t run out of water. Worst case, they can build desalination plants. Even with these, the cost of water at household level rarely exceeds 10% of the cost of living. Food, housing and transport are the dominant costs.

I would observe that housing price and land supply is a very big issue right now, however in my opinion that that is almost entirely a product of Australia’s byzantine approach to town planning and property taxation laws. It is not due to lack of land. Countries without such laws don’t have the same problem with housing costs, even if they have larger populations and higher density. For example, you can literally buy a central Berlin or Paris apartment, cheaper than a house in Sydney. Prior to the advent of negative gearing tax deductions in the 1980s, and removal of most capital gains tax on investment property in 2000, Australia did not have a major problem with house costs.

Despite all the frustrations our governments might cause, most Australian cities are consistently ranked as among the most desirable places to live in the developed world. More than 80% of our population live in capital cities; of the remainder more than half live in regional cities.

On current trend Australia’s population will reach 35 to 40 million by 2050, and could exceed 50 million in the 2060s (2100 latest).
Yes you touch on one subject that is nuts to me…why in the hell do we grow cotton in the driest continent on the planet?. The Murray Darling Basin is cyclically under a lot of stress and the cotton line down the darling takes an incredible amount of water Out of the system.
 

Morgo

Well-Known Member
I had a quick look at the list of exhibitors at the Indo-Pacific Maritime Expo and there are a number of shipbuilders which might tell us something about the direction of the surface fleet review:


Austal
Babcock
BAE
Civmec
Damen
Fincantieri
Gibbs & Cox
HII
Luerssen
Navantia
Northrup Grumman

Most are pretty self explanatory (although Gibbs & Cox would’ve been a surprise before their LinkedIn post last week) but a few interesting ones:
- are Damen there spruiking landing craft or small combatants? Maybe their SIGMA frigates?
- no Mitsubishi or Mitsui - looks like the Mogami lovers are likely to be disappointed.
- are Fincantieri going to push Constellation, or do the have something smaller?

My overarching observation is that almost all of these shipbuilders produce very capable 4000 - 7000t frigates. This indicates to me that they may have a clearer view on what “Tier 2” means that the general public does, and it is something with “Anzac +” levels of capability.

But perhaps I’m being overly optimistic. We’ll see what they put on display.
 

Redlands18

Well-Known Member
I had a quick look at the list of exhibitors at the Indo-Pacific Maritime Expo and there are a number of shipbuilders which might tell us something about the direction of the surface fleet review:


Austal
Babcock
BAE
Civmec
Damen
Fincantieri
Gibbs & Cox
HII
Luerssen
Navantia
Northrup Grumman

Most are pretty self explanatory (although Gibbs & Cox would’ve been a surprise before their LinkedIn post last week) but a few interesting ones:
- are Damen there spruiking landing craft or small combatants? Maybe their SIGMA frigates?
- no Mitsubishi or Mitsui - looks like the Mogami lovers are likely to be disappointed.
- are Fincantieri going to push Constellation, or do the have something smaller?

My overarching observation is that almost all of these shipbuilders produce very capable 4000 - 7000t frigates. This indicates to me that they may have a clearer view on what “Tier 2” means that the general public does, and it is something with “Anzac +” levels of capability.

But perhaps I’m being overly optimistic. We’ll see what they put on display.
It's not just about the RAN though, its as much about the Indo-Pacific as a whole. There will be a heavy concentration on the NZ requirements with their recent announcement of a major re-capitalisation of virtually the entire fleet (except Aotearoa) over the next 15 years. Damen, Fincantieri and Navantia all have the range of designs to be able to build the entire fleet.
I would suspect that Fincantieri is more likely to push the FREMM, than the Constellation and they also have the PPA.
 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
- no Mitsubishi or Mitsui - looks like the Mogami lovers are likely to be disappointed.
It was on display at Pacific 2015. No body in Australia seemed particularly interested in a crew efficient 4000-5000t ASW frigate.
The Japanese have the Indonesians on board, and the courting the Singaporeans. They aren't in the business of relentless pitching to people who probably are not interested or have already rejected. The are easier deals to be made.

From their point of view if Australia was serious at looking at a 4000-5000t frigate, Australia would have indicated such back in 2015.. The Japanese tend to take rejection very hard. They aren't like some companies who are happy to participate in a tender even if its heavily slanted against them or if it looks like there is already a favourite.

Shame, because I think it would be an interesting design to benchmark against others, as its very clean sheet and brings interesting ideas.

No Naval Group?
No. No Naval Group. In any way for form. I doubt they will ever turn up.

They have abandoned their website/domain name.

On linked in there are people who still work for them, but I assume they are under redundancies that are getting paid out, many have moved on or are available for offers. There are other shipbuilders that are getting larger in Australia.
 
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Morgo

Well-Known Member
Now didn't someone mention this potential configuration a couple of weeks back? ;)

Good to see and fingers crossed.
I think some handsome bloke said it last year?


My earlier thoughts on this matter:




In short - it looks like there is heaps of room for VLS if you sacrifice the mission bay.

So I think this is a great idea.

More Hunters with more cells more quickly please.
Great minds @Volkodav !
 

devo99

Well-Known Member
I had a quick look at the list of exhibitors at the Indo-Pacific Maritime Expo and there are a number of shipbuilders which might tell us something about the direction of the surface fleet review:


Austal
Babcock
BAE
Civmec
Damen
Fincantieri
Gibbs & Cox
HII
Luerssen
Navantia
Northrup Grumman
Interestingly no BMT considering they're competing for the JSS and landing craft contracts.
 

Scott Elaurant

Well-Known Member
The Navantia exhibit at Indo-Pacific 2023 has an interesting design called "Tasman-class corvette". This is based on the Avante 2200 design for Saudi Arabia.
The design is displacing 3,600t and 109.6m-long and 15.35m-wide. It has an anti-air (16 VLS), anti-submarine (MH60, 3 x TT) and anti-surface (12 NSM) capability. Could it be contender for new @Australian_Navy Tier 2 warship?
Either way, the definition of "Corvette" is getting stretched. These are Anzac sized ships.

From
 
The Navantia exhibit at Indo-Pacific 2023 has an interesting design called "Tasman-class corvette". This is based on the Avante 2200 design for Saudi Arabia.
The design is displacing 3,600t and 109.6m-long and 15.35m-wide. It has an anti-air (16 VLS), anti-submarine (MH60, 3 x TT) and anti-surface (12 NSM) capability. Could it be contender for new @Australian_Navy Tier 2 warship?
Either way, the definition of "Corvette" is getting stretched. These are Anzac sized ships.

From
‘Tasman’ class sounds like a strategic name choice to resonate both sides of the ditch.

According to the tweet you shared, build partnered with Civmec and Austal.
 

CJR

Active Member
The Navantia exhibit at Indo-Pacific 2023 has an interesting design called "Tasman-class corvette". This is based on the Avante 2200 design for Saudi Arabia.
The design is displacing 3,600t and 109.6m-long and 15.35m-wide. It has an anti-air (16 VLS), anti-submarine (MH60, 3 x TT) and anti-surface (12 NSM) capability. Could it be contender for new @Australian_Navy Tier 2 warship?
Either way, the definition of "Corvette" is getting stretched. These are Anzac sized ships.

From
What's the model hiding between the Tasman and Hobart classes? The one with what looks like a 76mm and 16VLS cells forward and more VLS cells amidship? An extra amped up Avante or an AWD derivative of the F-110?
 
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