Hamas-Israeli War 2023

[Big_Zucchini]

Israel's war cabinet convenes. Some speculated Israel will hold off an incursion until Biden can visit and hold his meetings, which sounds logical to me.

There is also the idea that Israel may be waiting with an incursion to play more into the moral high ground narrative, although it is more complex than that and in some ways waiting also harms that effort.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1714721776964350266

If the IDF commits to an incursion, it will most likely do so at night. Due to the distances, the IDF can effectively maneuver (albeit not control/clear) into every part of Gaza within less than 12 hours, allowing it to move with a night vision advantage through potential ambush routes. Hamas obviously understand this as well.

One key objective the IDF must fulfill before its forces completely enter Gaza, is the destruction of the tunnel network. Although we have seen some evidence pointing to damage to Hamas's tunnel infrastructure, we haven't seen evidence yet to indicate it was done in a significant amount.

If the IDF chooses to do so right at the beginning of its incursion, it may trap a few Hamas fighters (a strategy that failed in 2022), but it would alert Hamas to said incursion.

 

[John Fedup]

Technically according to the Constitution any war must be declared by Congress, not the President, but since 9/11 the executive branch has made wide use of (some might say abused) the vague language in the Sep 18 2001 Joint Resolution's Authorization for Use of United States Military Force in order to skirt the need for Congressional approval or even notification for specific military operations in the Middle East. The resolution states:

IN GENERAL.—That the President is authorized to use all
necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed,
or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001,
or harbored such organizations or persons, in order to prevent
any future acts of international terrorism against the United States
by such nations, organizations or persons

As you can see, just who such organizations or persons are may be open to interpretation, and this is left quite open ended as to when such operations should be brought to an end.

But even beyond this, there is a long historical tug of war between the legislative and executive branches when it comes to use of military force. The executive branch has constantly tried to use loopholes (like, is it really a war if we didn't declare war?) , and the legislative branch has constantly tried to close them, most notable by requiring Presidents to notify Congress about any use of military force with the 1973 War Powers Resolution.

Agree the historical tug of war between the two branches has been long. Vietnam is probably the best example, the Gulf of Tonkin resolution instead of a declaration of war IIRC. Given the dysfunction in the House, declaring war would be a challenge now.

 

[OPSSG]

It is also worth mentioning that since footage showing misfired PIJ rockets surfaced last night, Hamas and PIJ have been fairly silent, and their civil services appear to have been absent from the scene.

1. The US Senate Intelligence Committee reviewed intelligence related to the attack on Al Ahli hospital in Gaza. Based on this information, we feel confident that the explosion was the result of a failed rocket launch by militant terrorists and not the result of an Israeli airstrike.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1714736135136497872

2. I am horrified by the news of the PIJ rocket attack on Israel that failed, instead hit the Al Ahli Hospital in Gaza City. The Al Ahli Hospital is treating patients and hosting displaced Gazans. It is crazy that Gaza is running out of everything except Hamas & PIJ rockets.

​

(a) “Washington’s assessment that Israel wasn’t behind the blast at the hospital drew, in part, on communications intercepts and other intelligence gathered by the U.S., defense officials said.” Those on Social Media, who mistakenly jumped the gun in attributing strike to IDF have obligation to proactively inform their followers. Those assertions escalated regional tensions and beyond.​

​

(b) Meanwhile on Al Jazeera, they are discussion of this explosion in some sort of parallel universe where literally none of this evidence (that it was a PIJ rocket), even the open source stuff, exists. Al Jazeera, as an organisation & supporter of Hamas, has much invested in the BIG LIE to admit that the evidence now plainly suggests Israel didn’t bomb that hospital.​

3. President Biden, on landing in Israel, & presumably having received the PDB on the plane, says Al Ahli hospital explosion appears to have been a Palestinian rocket, not an Israeli strike. But he acknowledges uncertainty.

The rash response by citizens in Arab nations, as well as Hezbollah and Iranian threats, may indicate that they were looking for a casus belli and decided to cling onto this one, despite the now substantial evidence that the IDF was not involved.

However, as of yet, no uptick in Hezbollah activity in the north was detected.

4. Arab leaders canceled a summit with Biden because of an explosion at Al-Ahli hospital that, according to US Senate Intelligence Committee and the US President was likely was caused by a Palestinian rocket.

5. According to independent analysts examining footage, killed far fewer than the Hamas claimed but was still widely reported by the irresponsible media.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

2. I am horrified by the news of the PIJ rocket attack on Israel that failed, instead hit the Al Ahli Hospital in Gaza City. The Al Ahli Hospital is treating patients and hosting displaced Gazans. It is crazy that Gaza is running out of everything except Hamas & PIJ rockets.

(a) …Those on Social Media, who mistakenly jumped the gun in attributing strike to IDF have obligation to proactively inform their followers. Those assertions escalated regional tensions and beyond.​

Even if we excuse MSM for being trigger happy, which we shouldn't because it's an amateurish trait and they're supposed to be professional - we cannot excuse them for not issuing an apology and retracting their claims. Some reports are still up, only slightly changing the wording to something more ambiguous albeit still hinting at Israel.

The accusations against Israel are libellous and demonize an entire nation. The assertion that such action would be characteristic of Israel, effectively paints the average Israeli as a murderer. Since the IDF is a conscript-based army, it reflects Israeli values far more directly than a professional army would. Therefore, they tell their audiences that the alleged murder of 500 people, without the slightest justification, is something the average Israeli would be fine with. Truth is, even if the number of nearby civilians was only 5% of that, and that was an active rocket launching site, I still very much doubt the IDF would strike it at the time even with smaller more focused munitions. That's just not how the IAF's target incrimination and strike process works - which isn't really classified by the way.

One could expect MSM to see this whole story as a turning point, take this opportunity for self reflection. But it's highly unlikely to happen.

As the Arab street is now inflamed and Jews everywhere are consequently in danger, the MSM have essentially made themselves partially responsible for any antisemitic incidents and attacks that may occur in the following days. To do this while Israel mourns over its biggest ever massacre, is simply vile.

 

[Todjaeger]

Agree the historical tug of war between the two branches has been long. Vietnam is probably the best example, the Gulf of Tonkin resolution instead of a declaration of war IIRC. Given the dysfunction in the House, declaring war would be a challenge now.

For those interested in history, the last time the US made a formal declaration of war was in 1942, against some of the allies of the Axis, namely Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania. Every conflict the US has been involved in since then has been through a variety of Resolutions authorizing the use of force. This is something which started well before 9/11 and some of the legal shenanigans which followed.

 

[OPSSG]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1714887847184933299

1. The IDF has killed 4 members of Hamas' leadership team in airstrikes in the Gaza Strip, as part of shaping operations (prior to the ground offensive to follow). These include Zakaria Abu Ma'mar, and Jawad Abu Shamalah.

2. IDF spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari says the military has so far notified the families of 203 hostages that their loved ones are being held in the Gaza Strip.

The accusations against Israel are libellous and demonize an entire nation. The assertion that such action would be characteristic of Israel, effectively paints the average Israeli as a murderer.

As the Arab street is now inflamed and Jews everywhere are consequently in danger, the MSM have essentially made themselves partially responsible for any antisemitic incidents and attacks that may occur in the following days. To do this while Israel mourns over its biggest ever massacre, is simply vile.

3. I suspect that the state in Turkey, in Qatar & a rich political party in Malaysia are engaged in Cognitive Warfare (CW) to “alter the cognition of human targets in the Middle East & South East Asia, most often without their knowledge & consent,” with regard to Israel. Chinese government and military writings say cognitive operations aim to “capture the mind” of one’s foes, shaping an adversary’s thoughts and perceptions and consequently their decisions and actions. The 4 pillars of CW are:

• Information Disturbance (信息扰动). The authors describe it as “publishing specific information on social media to influence the target audience's understanding of the real combat situation, and then shape their positions and change their actions.”
• Discourse Competition (话语竞争)The second type is a much more subtle and gradual approach to shaping cognition. The authors describe a “trolling strategy” [拖钓], “spreading narratives through social media and online comments, gradually affecting public perception.
• Public Opinion Blackout (舆论遮蔽). This tactic aims to flood social media with a specific narrative — the main tool to “blackout” public opinion are bots that drive the narrative viral, stamping out alternative views.
• Block Information (信息封锁). The fourth type focuses on “carrying out technical attacks, blockades, and even physical destruction of the enemy's information communication channels”.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1714299092350677042

4. In the own words of the Chinese, the goal is to achieve an “invisible manipulation” and "invisible embedding" of information production “to shape the target audience's macro framework for recognizing, defining, and understanding events”.

​

(a) China is an effective user of CW in the Chinese language press & TV channels, a Malaysian political party does the same in the Malay language press & TV channels.​

​

(b) Not sure about Turkey but a similar 4 pillar process is likely to be used.​

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Colombia adopts a hostile stance to Israel, even supporting Hamas. Israel retaliates by suspending defense exports.

Colombia's defense depends quite heavily on Israel as a supplier of arms, provider of maintenance services, and expertise.

Even if Colombia's current government and people truly believe this stance, this is a careless action that puts real people in danger. Modern weapon systems quickly lose availability when not continuously maintained.

Even a short pause may cause a notable drop in capability for Colombia's armed forces.

Furthermore, recent geopolitical events have shown us Israel gives the subject of operational security regarding defense exports a higher weight in western terms. A popular example is Israel refusing the US's request to send its own Iron Dome batteries to Ukraine.

This tells us that even if a future Colombian government adopts a pro-Israel stance again, its reputation as a trustworthy ally would be stained. Since many of these systems are operational in Israel, it is important to it that they do not reach countries that may eventually provide Israel's adversaries with access to them.

Israel suspends defense sales to Colombia

The move followed a heated exchange online between Colombia's president and an Israeli ambassador.

www.defensenews.com

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Several reports came in of Iran and its proxies attacking US forces across the middle east.

A bit pointless to talk about it now though as the situation is still dynamic.

After the Gaza hospital debacle, I remind everyone to be vigilant and wait for some official statements from those involved.

 

[aussienscale]

Several reports came in of Iran and its proxies attacking US forces across the middle east.

A bit pointless to talk about it now though as the situation is still dynamic.

Many outlets reporting drone attacks in Syria on 2 US bases. Is this what you are alluding too ? or has something else happened ?

Drone strikes target US military bases in Syria, Iraq as regional tensions from Israel-Hamas War escalate

Defense officials said drones targeted military bases in Syria and Iraq that are housing thousands of American troops, with minor injuries being reported.

www.foxnews.com

 

[Feanor]

Many outlets reporting drone attacks in Syria on 2 US bases. Is this what you are alluding too ? or has something else happened ?

Drone strikes target US military bases in Syria, Iraq as regional tensions from Israel-Hamas War escalate

Defense officials said drones targeted military bases in Syria and Iraq that are housing thousands of American troops, with minor injuries being reported.

www.foxnews.com

There has also been a sighting of Iranian BM TELs on the move heading westward. Something is brewing but it's likely not even really started yet.

Рыбарь

Коллеги с Telegram-канала Defenders_IRAN опубликовали кадры перемещения пусковых установок баллистических ракет по трассе Тегеран — Кум в западном направлении. Это событие происходит на фоне активизации ударов иранских прокси по американской базе в Ираке Айн аль-Асад. Одновременно с этим...

t.me

 

[OPSSG]

Part 1 of 2: Beware of state sponsored media & politicians promoting hate!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1714951451079049272

1. Former Prime Minister Dr Mahathir’s lies on Twitter is part of Malaysia’s whole of society approach to Cognitive Warfare approach, which aims to “alter the cognition of human targets in the Middle East & South East Asia, most often without their knowledge & consent,” with regard to Israel.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715058520972767731

2. If you look at the number of re-Twits, the Malaysians are trying to flood the zone with nonsense to block out news that the American NSC and Senate Intelligence Committee saying that having “reviewed intelligence related to the attack on al-Ahli hospital in Gaza. Based on this information, we feel confident that the explosion was the result of a failed rocket launch by militant terrorists and not the result of an Israeli airstrike.”

3. @Big_Zucchini, the Malaysian public aided by certain members of the US Congress, like Rep. Tlaib, are active participants in Cognitive Warfare against Jewish communities worldwide. They have succeeded in making any Jew a target for hatred. If you can read Malay and search for the correct key words, they want to kill Jews. This is why there are ZERO Jews living in Malaysia and there are synagogues in Singapore.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715010027357077571

4. As Siti Kasim a human rights lawyer in Malaysia has documented, hatred in taught to children in Malaysia. There is a big push by some in Malaysia to radicalise Muslims in Southeast Asia.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 2 of 2: Beware of state sponsored media & politicians promoting hate!

5. Singapore's Chief Rabbi and Mufti have exchanged letters reaffirming the solidarity between the country's Jewish and Muslim communities amid the Israel-Hamas war. In a letter to Chief Rabbi Mordechai Abergel on Friday (Oct 13), Mufti Nazirudin Mohd Nasir wrote:

"We read with deep sadness, worry and grief, the escalation of conflict and violence affecting Jews and Muslims in Israel and Palestine.​

​

We fear for, and mourn the loss of innocent lives; young children, mothers, the elderly and vulnerable, who are trapped and victimised in this conflict.​

​

There is no place and no justification for any form of violence and brutality on civilians by anyone, including those by Hamas, or in any retaliatory response. The right of civilians to live peacefully must be protected at all times."​

​

6. Being aware of what is being said in the Malay language on social media & how bad it has become, Singapore's Chief Rabbi & Mufti had to take a public stance via the exchange of letters.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1714666009699975457

7. President Tharman Shanmugaratnam has sent a condolence letter to Palestinian Authority President Dr Mahmoud Abbas.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715105104687161495

8. I suspect that some Malay politicians in Malaysia, like Dr Mahathir, hope that the hatred in France can be replicated in Singapore.

 

[Vivendi]

Many outlets reporting drone attacks in Syria on 2 US bases. Is this what you are alluding too ? or has something else happened ?

Drone strikes target US military bases in Syria, Iraq as regional tensions from Israel-Hamas War escalate

Defense officials said drones targeted military bases in Syria and Iraq that are housing thousands of American troops, with minor injuries being reported.

www.foxnews.com

Actually 3 US bases were recently attacked by drones; one in Syria and 2 in Iraq. In addition, a US destroyer (USS Carney) intercepted several missiles and drones fired from Yemen, possibly aimed towards Israel. U.S. intercepts missiles near Yemen amid fears of Israel-Gaza war spreading - The Washington Post

 

[kato]

Bild reports that Germany is deploying special forces for a hostage (in Gaza) rescue mission.

Well, it's Bild ...

Germany isn't preparing for a Gaza mission, but for Lebanon instead.

What Germany is doing is shuffling around ships right now. F125 frigate Baden-Württemberg just replaced K130 corvette Oldenburg for UNIFIL to patrol the seas between Cyprus, Lebanon, Israel and Egypt. Oldenburg, instead of being moved back to Germany, is temporarily moved to the Aegaean Sea so she can relieve A702 AOR Frankfurt am Main from its migration deployment there. Frankfurt am Main's mission is not officially stated, but generally assumed to be support for a possible evacuation of German forces from Lebanon. The shipboard rescue center (hospital) has been reinforced with additional personnel flown in.

Since Germany curently has the lead for UNIFIL MTF448 there are about 40 German soldiers at the UNIFIL HQ in Naqoura, Lebanon that has been fired upon.

The evacuation taskforce in Germany has also been reinforced, similar to previously Sudan. The German government has issued a general "leave-the-country" warning for Lebanon for German civilians, on top of a travel warning or all of Israel, Palestine and Lebanon active since last sunday.

A400M landing in Tel Aviv have been bringing in some medical equipment for Israeli Forces, but - under that fig leaf - also armoured vehicles for the German Embassy and for the "crisis support teams" active in Israel. The A400M carry German civilians on the way back btw.

 

[Schrödinger'sCat]

I have been quite impressed with the tone of this thread, it appears quite balanced,, some consideration given to both sides. I am not happy with Civilians on either side being killed,, and I am sure many more will die in coming weeks or months.

One small factor I would like to get into,, it the psychology of a person living in Gaza. If your are born in Gaza,, you can never leave, you will never see snow,, never see a forest, never be more than 15 miles from the center of Gaza,, you will never visit Europe, south america,,Asia, you will never admire the view from a mountain,, never see an animal in the wild,, never walk among the wildflowers and never feel at peace. On any given day you cannot be certain that the Israel Air Force will not drop a bomb on you, because you by chance walked past a Hamas building, or someone somewhere made a mistake...A life like this is not psychologically healthy, your mental health will not be good.... the society around you is one hundred percent centered along the idea that Israel is bad, and you are being mistreated. You are likely to develop the psychology of victim-hood,, always seeking revenge,, your positive thoughts will be outweighed by the negatives of your situation. You will probably see yourself as a resident of a huge open air prison

It is thus not surprising that thousands and thousands of young people join Hamas, they know they may quite well die,, but if in their psychology there is no hope, there is nothing to lose...

Thus I see nothing changing,,, there is a war this year...thing wont change,,, in a few years there will be another,, then another,, then another ,, then another.... Put the clock forward,, fifty years,, 100 years,,, 200 years and ask yourself when does the situation change?,, is there a long term solution?

I can sympathize with that, I grew up under Ceausescu's dictatorship. Not until I begun having dreams of travelling, seeing, or becoming anything have I realized how well adjusted I (and everyone around me) have became to not having any. It does mess with your head.

 

[OPSSG]

Saudi Arabia’s main TV channel questions Hamas leader

1. Relentless interrogation of Palestinian leadership (in Arabic), on Saudi Arabia’s main TV channel. The Hamas leader is clearly startled by the intensity of the questions.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715404424326074443

2. A significant question to Hamas leader by the Saudi TV interviewer is why Hamas expects Arab countries to back them up when Hamas hadn’t consulted them before carrying out an operation akin to declaration of war.

​

(a) ‘You didn’t consult even fellow Palestinians.’​

​

(b) Interesting to hear on an Arabic television channel, accusing Hamas of being ISIS, of making the world sympathize with the Israelis and that Israel reacted to Hamas targeting of civilians.​

3. The interview is clearly very strategic, & can further reveal where Saudi Arabia stands on the issue. A repeated question throughout is about Hamas expecting others to join in despite it making a unilateral decision it knew would have Israel respond.

 

[Volkodav]

Saudi Arabia’s main TV channel questions Hamas leader

1. Relentless interrogation of Palestinian leadership (in Arabic), on Saudi Arabia’s main TV channel. The Hamas leader is clearly startled by the intensity of the questions.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1715404424326074443

2. A significant question to Hamas leader by the Saudi TV interviewer is why Hamas expects Arab countries to back them up when Hamas hadn’t consulted them before carrying out an operation akin to declaration of war.

​

(a) ‘You didn’t consult even fellow Palestinians.’​

​

(b) Interesting to hear on an Arabic television channel, accusing Hamas of being ISIS, of making the world sympathize with the Israelis and that Israel reacted to Hamas targeting of civilians.​

3. The interview is clearly very strategic, & can further reveal where Saudi Arabia stands on the issue. A repeated question throughout is about Hamas expecting others to join in despite it making a unilateral decision it knew would have Israel respond.

It also seems to indicate Russian and Chinese influence in Saudi affairs isnt as great as feared.

Looking very much like the usual kleptocratic suspects working with other outcasts.

 

[Ananda]

Gaza Exodus To Egypt Would Risk West Bank Displacement To Jordan: Sisi

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi warned Wednesday of the dangers of "forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt", saying it would set a precedent for "the displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank into Jordan".

www.barrons.com

Egypt stands on their refusal to let Palestinians Gaza to their territory. This is basically all Arab nations position so far. Accepting Palestinian refugee which (as historical trend shown) will never be allowed return by Israel, will only help Israel cause to empty Palestinians land.

Thus Israel land offensive will have to continue put civilians as part of inherent Gaza obstacles in their calculations.

 

[Volkodav]

Gaza Exodus To Egypt Would Risk West Bank Displacement To Jordan: Sisi

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi warned Wednesday of the dangers of "forced displacement of Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt", saying it would set a precedent for "the displacement of Palestinians from the West Bank into Jordan".

www.barrons.com

Egypt stands on their refusal to let Palestinians Gaza to their territory. This is basically all Arab nations position so far. Accepting Palestinian refugee which (as historical trend shown) will never be allowed return by Israel, will only help Israel cause to empty Palestinians land.

Thus Israel land offensive will have to continue put civilians as part of inherent Gaza obstacles in their calculations.

The other side of it is just look at the history of what happened in Jordan and Lebanon. Eventually these nations providing refuge, became targets of the extremists within the Palestinian community.

 

[Ananda]

Eventually these nations providing refuge, became targets of the extremists within the Palestinian community.

I'm sure that's also make significant part of decision not to accept Palestinians refugees. However looking to Arab media and streets, the biggest sentiment still because they see the move will only Help Israel cause and not Palestinians one.

No neighbors will want to accept any refugee, knowing they will never be allowed right to return. Thus the neighbors will stuck with the refugees forever. Turkey as example now beginning to send back some Syrian refugees, back to the area that their army and allies control. Egypt and Jordan knows they can't expect that same thing can happen, if they accept Palestinians refugees.