The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor · Sep 28, 2023

At lakes said:
Huge blunder by Russia: Claims to have shot down a Storm Shadow missile 'With a British crew Inside'

Russia claims to have shot down a Storm Shadow missile 'With a British crew Inside'

www.dagens.com

I dont know if this has been posted before if so I am sorry for the double but this sounded so stupid I had to post on the off chance its the first time.

Sometimes when the news media be it Russian or Ukrainian make statements they boarders on idiotic. Russian news outlet stated a British Storm shadow cruise missile was shot down and there was a British crew inside it. Me thinks the person who wrote that is practicing for the local comedy festival.

Makes sense to me. They probably hired British ex-military to pilot the Storm Shadow. It takes 3 right? Pilot, co-pilot, and on-board engineer?

Feanor said:
According to a Russian military source, the situation is currently quiet. In my opinion it's likely Ukraine is regrouping for the next attack. Ukrainian forces involved currently are not spent and we don't have much footage or reports of attacks.

АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z

Обстановка на Запорожском направление на 10:00. Вчера кто то не из умных начал разгонять панику о каком то накате и наступательных действий ВСУ и сразу же это все подхватили. Мы вчера летали на БЛА (скрины предоставляли) и была тишина, артиллерия только работало с нашей и со стороны противника...

t.me

We have the results of the most recent attack, though I'm unclear on when exactly this took place. The video shows dozens (by some counts as many as 40) destroyed Ukrainian vehicles near Verbovoe. And they're not merely knocked out but recoverable. They appear to be completely burned out. Note Ukraine has carried out multiple attacks on this axis, so it's very likely that only some of the vehicles are from the most recent attempt. Nonetheless vehicle graveyard is an apt description.

Кладбище техники ВСУ в районе Вербового

Поля в районе Вербового усеянные уничтоженной и брошенной бронетехникой ВСУ. Несмотря на все усилия и огромные потери, противник так и не смог прорваться в Вербовое. Чтобы изменить негативную динамику боевых действий, противник сейчас пытается за счет переброшенных сил на Ореховское направление…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Воин DV

Империя Z публикует кадры, демонстрирующие масштаб разгрома ВСУ в районе Вербового. При беглом подсчёте набралось свыше 40 единиц техники, считай уничтожен целый батальон только на этом участке. Вот смотришь на это или на последствия неудачного наступления ВСУ на Новомайорское и чувствуешь...

t.me

T.C.P · Sep 29, 2023

The recent month has seen amassive increase in the number of UPMK videoss being released by the Russian side. It seems that the glide kit production has gone up significantly and now Su-24 and Su-34s both can use FAB-250 and 500s. There was a report from the reliable telegram channel 'Fighterbomber' about succcessful Fab-1500 launches as well.

For now we know that the ranges of these bombs are 50km+ and from recent videos of double tap strikes, they appear to be reasonably accurate, the spaces between two hits is impressively small. Of course not as accurate as JDAM ERs, but good enough.

I am waiting ofcourse for the official RUSI analysis on the combat effectiveness of these kits, but they drop their analytical articles after quite sometime, so in the mean time @Feanor do you have any access to any reliable sources that are breaking down the effects of these glide kits on the war so far?

Feanor · Sep 29, 2023

T.C.P said:
The recent month has seen amassive increase in the number of UPMK videoss being released by the Russian side. It seems that the glide kit production has gone up significantly and now Su-24 and Su-34s both can use FAB-250 and 500s. There was a report from the reliable telegram channel 'Fighterbomber' about succcessful Fab-1500 launches as well.

For now we know that the ranges of these bombs are 50km+ and from recent videos of double tap strikes, they appear to be reasonably accurate, the spaces between two hits is impressively small. Of course not as accurate as JDAM ERs, but good enough.

I am waiting ofcourse for the official RUSI analysis on the combat effectiveness of these kits, but they drop their analytical articles after quite sometime, so in the mean time @Feanor do you have any access to any reliable sources that are breaking down the effects of these glide kits on the war so far?

No. That effect is still materializing. But for examples we can look at the attempts to use them as counter-battery strikes, and recently Russia has been pummeling practically front-line Ukrainian positions, as well as all the villages in their near-rear. I'm more interested in the massive spike in strikes against bridges and improvised river crossings currently going on at the Oskol front. It's a shaping operation for a Russian offensive.

Sandhi Yudha · Sep 29, 2023

At lakes said:
Huge blunder by Russia: Claims to have shot down a Storm Shadow missile 'With a British crew Inside'

Russia claims to have shot down a Storm Shadow missile 'With a British crew Inside'

www.dagens.com

I dont know if this has been posted before if so I am sorry for the double but this sounded so stupid I had to post on the off chance its the first time.

Sometimes when the news media be it Russian or Ukrainian make statements they boarders on idiotic. Russian news outlet stated a British Storm shadow cruise missile was shot down and there was a British crew inside it. Me thinks the person who wrote that is practicing for the local comedy festival.

The Storm Shadow is 5,1 m long and 63 cm wide, and it is provided by the UK, so it is totally possible that an Oompa-Loompa was inside that thing.

ngatimozart · Sep 29, 2023

Feanor said:
Makes sense to me. They probably hired British ex-military to pilot the Storm Shadow. It takes 3 right? Pilot, co-pilot, and on-board engineer?

No, it's four. You forgot the flight steward to make and serve the standard NATO brew of tea.

Sandhi Yudha said:
The Storm Shadow is 5,1 m long and 63 cm wide, and it is provided by the UK, so it is totally possible that an Oompa-Loompa was inside that thing.

No, the Oompa-Loompas are unionised and cost to much. Most likely they have Tyrion Lannister and his dwarven mates.

T.C.P · Sep 29, 2023

Feanor said:
No. That effect is still materializing. But for examples we can look at the attempts to use them as counter-battery strikes, and recently Russia has been pummeling practically front-line Ukrainian positions, as well as all the villages in their near-rear. I'm more interested in the massive spike in strikes against bridges and improvised river crossings currently going on at the Oskol front. It's a shaping operation for a Russian offensive.

4 bridges being taken out recently

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/16uqy15
THe FAB strikes videoshave titles with russians claiming that they are hitting Ukr staging areas andammo depots, but this particular strike is apparently on chemical plant.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/16uj7rr

ngatimozart · Sep 29, 2023

First some videos from Ukrainian sources. The usual caveats apply.
There are claims that the Russians have resorted to using tanks in a kamikaze role in the Donetsk region.

There is a claim that some Russian prisoners who have been drafted into the Russian Army are revolting. I have found nothing to substantiate this claim, so treat it with a large degree off caution. However, given the current morale levels within the invading Russian forces and other sources claiming that there is tension between Russians and non-Russians within the invading forces, it is possible.

The same video publisher also claims that UKR launched a missile attack on Russian military forces near Kerch. They didn't state what missile but suggest that it might be the German KEPD Taurus missile. They go on to state that once UKR have sufficiently degraded the Russian air defence capabilities within Crimea, they will be in a position to launch a strong and probably successful attacks on the Kerch bridge until it is destroyed. If Germany has finally approved the export of the Taurus missile to UKR, then the bridge is in dangerous situation because the Taurus certainly has the range required and a heavy enough warhead to cause significant damage to, r destroy the bridge. It would take far more than one missile but it is possible.

This video claims to be intercepted phone calls from Russian troops to wives etc. I think that if it is valid, it does illustrate a significant problem within the Russian military.

ngatimozart · Sep 29, 2023

ISW Update 27/9/23
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 27, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

- Ukrainian forces marginally advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 27.

Geolocated footage published on September 26 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced near Orikhovo-Vasylivka (10km northwest of Bakhmut).[1] Additional geolocated footage published on September 26 indicates that Russian forces likely no longer control a roughly one-kilometer-long trench line west of Verbove (16km southeast of Orikhiv).[2] The absence of Russian forces in this trench line could facilitate further Ukrainian advances in this area, as this trench line is no longer a significant obstacle for Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated that “there will be good news” in the Zaporizhia operational direction and noted that Ukrainian forces are steadily advancing but did not provide additional information.[3]

- The situation near Verbove remains unclear as prominent Russian milbloggers have become noticeably less inclined to report in detail on Russian activity on this frontline or present bad news about Russian failures, while a discussion about reported Russian problems in this area has emerged on the fringes of the Russian information space.

Zaporizhia Oblast occupation official Vladimir Rogov claimed on September 26 that at least four Ukrainian companies with a significant number of armored vehicles stormed Russian positions along the Robotyne-Verbove line after conducting a massive artillery barrage.[4] A Russian milblogger who avidly supports Russian Airborne Forces (VDV) Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky by criticizing the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) responded to Rogov, stating that Ukrainian forces have already passed the minefields and “dragon’s teeth” anti-tank fortifications on the Robotyne-Verbove line and that Ukrainian forces would have conducted such attacks sooner or later.[5] Another Russian milblogger claimed on September 26 that there is intense mutual shelling that is making it dangerous to operate above ground near Verbove and Robotyne.[6] Still another milblogger reportedly affiliated with the VDV Forces responded to this claim, stating that a personal source from the Russian 108th VDV Regiment (7th VDV Division) reported that there is intense Ukrainian shelling in the area.[7] The milblogger added that their source provided unclear information about whether the 108th VDV Regiment was moving to Verbove or leaving from Verbove. The milblogger also claimed that the Russian military command in Moscow canceled plans for the redeployment of the Russian 106th VDV Division to the Robotyne area to aid the 7th and 76th VDV Divisions currently operating there and offered an unreasonable explanation for the motivation behind this decision.[8] ISW has observed that this channel has demonstrated a tendency to make exaggerated statements and implausible claims that favor Teplinsky against Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov. ISW has also previously observed elements of the 106th VDV Division in the Bakhmut area.[9] The Russian information space has largely been hesitant recently to discuss Russian forces’ operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast, as the Russian milblogger community has reduced its criticisms of the Russian conduct of the war on this sector of the front since Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion on June 24. ISW will continue to adapt to this new information space.

- Russian media continues to publish inconclusive “proof” that Black Sea Fleet Commander Admiral Viktor Solokov is alive.

Zvezda News published an interview with Solokov on September 27, but ISW is unprepared at this time to make an assessment about the authenticity of the footage or the date of its filming.[10] The Kremlin and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) have been notably silent on the matter and have not directly confirmed that Sokolov is alive.

- Ukrainian and Russian confirmations of some former Wagner Group personnel deploying to the Bakhmut area indicate that the Wagner Group is struggling to cohesively reform around new leadership.

A Russian milblogger claimed on September 26 that the appointment of a new overall Wagner commander triggered an exodus of Wagner personnel to Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)-related structures.[11] Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash confirmed on September 27 the presence of 500 former Wagner personnel operating in MoD-related formations in the Bakhmut area and that these personnel are insufficient to change the situation on the battlefield.[12] A Ukrainian drone operator reportedly operating in the Bakhmut area reported that Wagner personnel changed commanders and returned to the Bakhmut area to compensate for ongoing personnel shortages in the area.[13] The piecemeal deployment of former Wagner personnel to any area of the frontline is unlikely to generate any significant strategic or even localized effects on the battlefield in Ukraine.

- Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, in Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line on September 27 but did not make any confirmed gains.

A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces attacked in the Serebryanske forest area (11km south of Kreminna) but did not specify an outcome.[14] A Russian news aggregator claimed that Russian and Ukrainian forces participated in combat engagements near the Serebryanske forest area on September 26.[15] The Ukrainian General Staff and Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash reported on September 27 that Russian forces did not conduct offensive actions in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions.[16] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces destroyed two unspecified bridge crossings over the Oskil River.[17]

- The Guardian reported on September 27 that Iranian drones that Russian forces operate in Ukraine contain European components despite international sanctions.

The Guardian reported on September 27 that Iranian drones that Russian forces operate in Ukraine contain European components despite international sanctions targeting these parts.[51] The Guardian cited a document that Ukrainian officials originally presented to international leaders at a G7 meeting in August 2023 and reported that Iranian drone manufacturers used drone components from companies based in the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Germany, Canada, Japan, and Poland, including one Polish subsidiary of a United Kingdom company. The Guardian reported that the Shahed-131 drone uses 52 parts from Western companies while the Shahed-136 drone uses 57 parts. The Guardian reported that Iranian-assembled drones travel to Russia through the Caspian Sea while drones assembled at Iranian factories in Syria travel to Russia through Novorossiysk.

- Ukrainian partisans continue to disrupt Russian logistics in occupied Ukraine.

Ukrainian Crimean-based partisan group “Atesh” stated on September 26 that Atesh agents disabled five Russian military ZIL-131 fuel and lubricant transportation vehicles over the past ten days in occupied Luhansk Oblast.[53] Atesh also insinuated that its agents were involved in the disappearances of an unspecified number of Russian servicemen in occupied Luhansk.[54] Geolocated footage published by Atesh confirms that its agents are operating in occupied Luhansk City and likely have access to Russian military transportation vehicles.[55] The Ukrainian Resistance Center reported on September 27 that unspecified Ukrainian partisans have recently helped Ukrainian forces strike Russian military equipment and warehouses in occupied Ukraine.[56]

Of note, Black Sea Fleet Commander Admiral Viktor Solokov appears to be the Russian variant of Schrodinger's cat thought experiment. So he could be both alive and dead.

KipPotapych · Sep 29, 2023

ngatimozart said:
However, given the current morale levels within the invading Russian forces and other sources claiming that there is tension between Russians and non-Russians within the invading forces, it is possible.

What is the current morale level in the Russian forces? I am just curious because I haven’t seen much reporting on it as of late. Most of what I saw in the past month or so was “professional”, “well prepared”, “greatly motivated”, etc. I have not heard anything about ethnic conflicts either, but would appreciate the read.

ngatimozart said:
This video claims to be intercepted phone calls from Russian troops to wives etc. I think that if it is valid, it does illustrate a significant problem within the Russian military.

Sorry, but this is a complete rubbish. I can, thankfully, understand exactly what and how they are saying it. However, one only has to read the subtitles (I did) to realize that this is rubbish, in my opinion.

ngatimozart · Sep 29, 2023

ISW Update 27/9/23
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 28, 2023 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

- Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 28.

- Russian forces have reduced the tempo of their localized offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line in recent days.

- Russian aviation is increasingly active in Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Kherson oblasts and apparently less active in areas of western Zaporizhia Oblast where Ukrainian forces are conducting counteroffensive operations.

- Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of September 27 to 28.

- Several Russian milbloggers claimed that they self-censor the majority of their reporting amidst an apparent wider self-censorship in Russian reporting about the tactical realities on certain sectors of the front.

- The Russian State Duma adopted a bill in its first reading that criminalizes promoting and justifying extremism, likely to encourage self-censorship in the Russian information space.

- Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled his support for Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov during a meeting on September 28 amid continued speculations about Kadyrov’s health and public backlash against the recent behavior of Kadyrov’s son.

- The Russian information space continued to criticize Armenian leadership and lament Russia’s perceived decreased influence in Armenia.

- Russian forces conducted offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and did not make confirmed gains.

- Russian sources stated that the Russian Aerospace (VKS) Forces received a new batch of fifth-generation Su-57 stealth fighter and fourth-generation Su-35S air defense fighter aircraft on September 28.

- Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko stated on September 28 that Ukrainian partisans set fire to a Russian military facility in occupied Yalta, Donetsk Oblast (21km southwest of Mariupol).

Of note from the above. The ISW report:
That Russian Milbloggers are beginning to self-censor themselves far more than they have done before. This has been noticeable since Prigozhin undertook his special landing operation in his personal jet.

That Russian bloggers lament Russia’s perceived decreased influence in Armenia.

A colleague of mine suggests that Russia's lack of response to the Armenia request though the CSTO may have doomed that organisation to failure. Also, the Kazakhstan leader has stated that:

"Kazakhstan has unambiguously stated that it will follow the sanctions regime," said President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev following talks in Berlin with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. "We have contacts with the relevant organizations to comply with the sanctions regime, and I think there should not be any concerns on the German side about possible actions aimed at circumventing the sanctions regime."

Kazakhstan Won't Help Russia to Bust Sanctions – President - The Moscow Times

If Kazakhstan does fully implement and police the sanctions that could create a major problem for the Russian space program and the International Space Station because none of the other international partners have the ability to replace the loss of the Russian launch capabilities, even if they all banded together.

ngatimozart · Sep 29, 2023

KipPotapych said:
What is the current morale level in the Russian forces? I am just curious because I haven’t seen much reporting on it as of late. Most of what I saw in the past month or so was “professional”, “well prepared”, “greatly motivated”, etc. I have not heard anything about ethnic conflicts either, but would appreciate the read.

Just because you haven't heard it makes it untrue. Follow the footnote links in the ISW reports about it. They provide their sources. If the Russian morale was good and the Russian army was professional they wouldn't be in the position that they are now. On that level nothing has improved much since their FUBAR of 24/2/22.

Sorry, but this is a complete rubbish. I can, thankfully, understand exactly what and how they are saying it. However, one only has to read the subtitles (I did) to realize that this is rubbish, in my opinion.

It may be and it may not be. I never stated that it was true and correct. However, there is a lot that is not well within the Russian military and that one is just one of many items that point to low morale and poor support for the frontline troops. If you read various Russian and non-Russian sources on Telegram and other platforms that is a common theme that appears.

KipPotapych · Sep 29, 2023

ngatimozart said:
Just because you haven't heard it makes it untrue. Follow the footnote links in the ISW reports about it. They provide their sources. If the Russian morale was good and the Russian army was professional they wouldn't be in the position that they are now. On that level nothing has improved much since their FUBAR of 24/2/22.

Gottcha. I almost completely stopped reading ISW (went from daily reader to once a week at best). I recently (and not so recently) read a few articles quoting UA general staff and people from trenches indicating the opposite in regards to improvement. Doubt I will be able to find any of them at this time (tried quickly now but with the keywords I chose I mostly get “poor trained”, phone calls, etc; it’s hard to navigate in this media space). I will see what I can do. I also remember back in May there were a few articles indicating that the UA offensive is not likely to succeed because of this very reason - greatly improved morale and training. I think RUSI had an article on improvement as well (that one I can probably find if there was one).

Note, I am not saying they are a great army or whatever, but what I read in the past while. Just wanted to clarify that.

ngatimozart said:
It may be and it may not be. I never stated that it was true and correct. However, there is a lot that is not well within the Russian military and that one is just one of many items that point to low morale and poor support for the frontline troops. If you read various Russian and non-Russian sources on Telegram and other platforms that is a common theme that appears.

They could be real (I am sure there are phones calls made and intercepted of all kinds), but these do not appear to be such, to me personally. These “phone calls intercepts” have been posted for months now (since the beginning?), I don’t even listen anymore. I listened to this one though and I remembered why I don’t.

I would also point out, that there are similar things reported from the other side of the frontline. It is just that they are far and few in between for obvious reasons. For example:

It’s not a fear of getting killed that has him hesitant to return to the front lines, he says. It’s a lack of leadership from some officers that has him worried.

“I want to transfer to another brigade, because we have (a) very, very big problem with our commanders,” Baulin says. “Our commanders don’t support us.[…]

Baulin says a lack of soldiers experienced in assaults, armed with proper weapons, has made the war more dangerous.

“I was fighting in Bakhmut, but we don’t have machine-guns and they say that you don’t have qualifications for machine-guns. Why do you need them?”

Source:

‘Keep fighting’: Ukrainian soldiers continue battle with Russia despite low morale

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has left many Ukrainian soldiers feeling war weary but unwilling or unable to give up the fight.

www.thestar.com

I previously posted a couple of interviews with UA soldiers by the Washington Post indicating much of the same or worse. There are many more describing low morale, poor training (some with none at all), lack of equipment and guns, desertions, etc. Basically exactly the same stuff and I doubt there is any significant difference in this regard between the two sides. UA is just better at propaganda and has western support to amplify it. Even the UK MoD sometimes “slips up”, haha:

"Combat units from both sides are committed to intense combat in the Donbas and are likely experiencing variable morale," Britain's defense ministry said in its daily assessment of the war.

"Ukrainian forces have likely suffered desertions in recent weeks," the assessment said, but added that "Russian morale highly likely remains especially troubled."

Source:

Low morale takes hold of Ukrainian, Russian troops

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Four months of war in Ukraine appear to be straining the morale of troops on both sides, prompting desertions and rebellion against officers’ orders, British defense officials said Sunday. NATO’s chief warned the fighting could drag on for "years." “Combat units from both...

www.pbs.org

So I wouldn’t be betting that Russia is in any worse position than Ukraine. By now they are probably about equal on the ground and, hence, here we are.

Feanor · Sep 29, 2023

T.C.P said:
4 bridges being taken out recently

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/16uqy15
THe FAB strikes videoshave titles with russians claiming that they are hitting Ukr staging areas andammo depots, but this particular strike is apparently on chemical plant.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/16uj7rr

It's Avdeevka. There are Ukrainian positions and staging areas all over that town including inside industrial facilities. We won't know for sure if there were Ukrainian forces there unless we get BDA. It appears a new Russian missile, the Kh-38ML is the key tool in these strikes. Russia has stepped up production of it and of the Grom gliding munitions recently. As I've said before if Russia can systematically take out Ukrainian river crossings and keep them out of service consistently (no small feat considering how many many times Russia hit the Ingulets crossing in Kherson last year, and Ukraine just kept putting up fresh bridge-layer sections) then it will begin to have an operational impact. I'm a bit curious about the choice of location. The Oskol front is arguable the least significant front of the war. It would in principle make sense for Russia to reach the Oskol and make that their new front line, it's much easier to hold even a medium sized river like the Oskol then just open ground. But it's also an offensive that by definition has minimal, if any, strategic impact on the war. Initially I thought this was being done because it was a place where success could be sold to political leadership to justify the efforts, and failure would be easy to cover up since it would have minimal impact. But now I'm wondering if this is a trial run and if it works they will attempt this elsewhere. To be honest I'm not clear on how essential river crossings are elsewhere in the Donbas.

To me things that can change the nature of the fighting are more important then individual tactical gains here or there, which is why watching things like Russian mass-use of loitering munitions in a single area to achieve an effect, or a shift in strike patterns is significant. A few trench lines in one or the other direction in Zaporozhye, far less so.

ngatimozart said:
Just because you haven't heard it makes it untrue. Follow the footnote links in the ISW reports about it. They provide their sources. If the Russian morale was good and the Russian army was professional they wouldn't be in the position that they are now. On that level nothing has improved much since their FUBAR of 24/2/22.

I think generalized statements like this are highly misleading. The Russian military is very heterogenous. Volunteer formations, elite units, etc. might have excellent morale and a "kick ass take names" attitude. They might perform very well, on par with the best. On the flip side units of poorly trained mobilized soldiers led by reservist officers might perform very poorly even in well prepared positions defending an open river (consider the mess in Kherson region where a Russian btln commander was captured). This makes it very hard to say something meaningful about Russian morale overall. The 42nd Motor-Rifles for example despite being a regular MRDiv, has done very well in combat and their forces (mainly 70th and 71st MRRgts) appear to have good morale and be well trained. On the flip side many other MRDivs and MRRgts have done very poorly. It pretty much has to be considered unit by unit.

To a Ukrainian soldier the Russian forces across from them might be fearsome professionals, aggressive, skilled, and deadly. Or they might be bumbling idiots that don't want to be there. And one can rapidly replace another as units get moved around. Today you can attack Russian positions with good effect and impunity, tomorrow your entire "bronegruppa" gets shredded because unbeknownst to you an SpN element with Kornets, and a VDV recon btln are now sitting across from you.

Feanor · Oct 1, 2023

Update. Russian Strikes.

Not much of anything has happened on any of the fronts. Both sides are paused, preparing for the next round. Ukraine's offensive is spent but not over. While the forces built up for the offensive have taken significant losses, Ukraine has prepared fresh forces, including entire new brigades, to keep the fight going. Consequently Ukraine may be in a position to resume attacks fairly quickly. On the flip side Russia has launched a large scale series of strikes that come in 3 varieties. First off we have the recent series of strikes against bridges. They are being done using a mix of gliding bombs and the brand new Kh-38ML/Grom series of PGMs. Next we have a series of strikes against logistics hubs. These are various munition storage facilities all over western Ukraine. Lastly Russia has been striking non-static targets, including parked jets and troop trains. Both require recon that can identify such targets and a decision loop that allows a strike to happen before the target moves. The latter I find most interesting since this is a distinct problem that Russia hadn't been able to consistently solve until now.

To summarize, here is a post listing the recent arsenals Russia has struck;

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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