The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[jeffb]

How about everyone stops with the he said, she said. The same argument goes round and round.

Instead of assigning values and views to broad groups or bringing historical hot takes on past geopolitics how about you look at this conflict on its own merits (or lack thereof). If your only point is someone else did something bad so I can too then you really need to take a long hard look in the mirror. Western countries have made bad decisions in the past but definitely do not have a monopoly on them, more relevant is we openly discuss them so we can learn from them.

The Ukrainian people are speaking and their voice is clear. If anything the "west" has not supported Ukraine enough in terms of quantity or quality and has been too slow at what it has delivered.

 

[d-ron84]

Russia is not alone in invading and bombing other countries but for some reason u forget all of that. Where are the sanctions for what NATO done to Libya? Or you’re so happy how Libya turned out to be? So tell me, if the US can bomb and invade, why not Russia? Türkiye can invade Syria or Iraq when ever they feel horny, Saudi Arabia can bomb the hell out of Yemen because they protecting their interest but Russia can’t. US can just turn up in Syria and start bombing the Government of the country and all this is fine with u guys then u expect Russia to listen to you. Honestly you need to put on a neutral hat to see how laughable this is becoming

Well I’m not from any of those countries mate, and I call them out for doing those same things

 

[vikingatespam]

Russia is not alone in invading and bombing other countries but for some reason u forget all of that. Where are the sanctions for what NATO done to Libya? Or you’re so happy how Libya turned out to be? So tell me, if the US can bomb and invade, why not Russia? Türkiye can invade Syria or Iraq when ever they feel horny, Saudi Arabia can bomb the hell out of Yemen because they protecting their interest but Russia can’t. US can just turn up in Syria and start bombing the Government of the country and all this is fine with u guys then u expect Russia to listen to you. Honestly you need to put on a neutral hat to see how laughable this is becoming

Whataboutism is a classic St.Petersburg talking point and should be avoided. If you feel strongly about Libya or Syria, please feel free to start your own thread in the proper forums.

More seriously, there is a moral difference in the RU invasion of UKR than the other actions you listed, and yes we could argue about that for some time if you like.
The RU actions in UKR are simply to expand an empire through the use of hard military power. Is there a good spin on this ?

 

[Egede]

Are you from London?

Yes, am from London, if anyone tries to come invade us here, I will die fighting for my kids. But going to fight the Russians there, No, I don’t think it’s a good idea, these guys have nukes, why do u want to fight them?

 

[Egede]

West Invading another nation:
It is a just cause for democracy and human rights protection.

Non West Invading another Nation:
It is barbaric action that destroy innocent civilians.



If you argue with those who have that western 'truth' bias thinking as I put above. Then it is going to be useless arguments. It is an arguments that will not end, as everyone has their own bias anyway.

It is depend on each side going to spin it and defend each sides own 'truth'. Those who doesn't want to get involved, then stay away and sit in the fences. Let those who fights pounching each other until one sides or both sides exhausted.

That's call war of attrition, which this war already become since May last year. In sense it is like school yard fight. Those who has interest will get involved, while the rest of school watch from fences/sides until whatever ends results.

I see what u mean, I will just leave it there and focus on the thread

 

[swerve]

CovertShores and other have analyzed this, but the TLDR is - notice how some of the hull places are buckled outwards, indicating an internal explosion. The sub is probably junk. Have fun getting that out of drydock.

Need either lots of extra buoyancy added somehow or plating over that bloody great hole enough to float it out - perhaps lightened first. Or just dismantle it in situ.

 

[Feanor]

My point is very simple admittedly, but the way I look at it is that a Ukrainian air defense missile wouldn't have inadvertently fallen and killed innocent civilians if not for trying to protect said civilians from Russian aggression in the first place.

The info I have doesn't show it as an air defense missile but iirc a HARM. If this was in fact a missile failure, then had the west not cheaped out and supplied Ukraine old missiles... so ultimately it's America's fault. Again, the logic doesn't work.

And yet Russia is the one who invaded another sovereign nation, both in 2014 and 2022, so your arguments are pretty poor.

It's those darn amoebas, I'm telling you. We're all paying the price for their failure... Not sure what's not coming across about my point. None of what I said in that post defends Russian behavior. It's a point addressing a specific argument, and taking issue with the nature of the argument presented.

Perhaps, but in the aftermath of the tragic event, the Ukrainians might not have been able to identify immediately whose missile it was. I'm not of the opinion that Ukraine owes Russia an apology.

Ok, but they might owe their own public an apology. As a purportedly democratic government might after misleading its constituents, even if by mistake. They also might have known exactly whose missile it was and lied. I doubt we'll get to the bottom of it either way.

Whataboutism is a classic St.Petersburg talking point and should be avoided. If you feel strongly about Libya or Syria, please feel free to start your own thread in the proper forums.

More seriously, there is a moral difference in the RU invasion of UKR than the other actions you listed, and yes we could argue about that for some time if you like.
The RU actions in UKR are simply to expand an empire through the use of hard military power. Is there a good spin on this ?

There is a good spin, sure. You can find it from the less propaganda oriented LDNR-supporting social media voices. It doesn't make it any less spin, or any less an example of classic imperialism. The issue is that conflicts aren't black and white. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is wrong. What Ukraine did to the LDNR territories and before that the anti-Maydan protesters is also wrong. One of these wrongs is of considerably greater magnitude. But ignoring the lesser in favor of the greater, doesn't produce justice. Just a different kind of unfair outcome. This conflict is a complex mess that unfortunately won't get anything resembling a good resolution any time soon because of the greater issues involved. What people keep forgetting, likely due to the natural sympathy for the victim of aggression, is that the Ukrainian government is still a corrupt authoritarian oligarchy, complete with lists of banned books, political prisoners, and a terrible track record for the past 30+ years.

 

[ImperatorOrbis]

Interesting graph showing Russian tank losses trough time (Only visualy confirmed losses). Seems T-72 stocks are going down. Instead Russia is compensating by fielding more T-80.
Also it seems Russia can keep up with the T-90 losses by production of new ones.

@ImperatorOrbis Source for image is required.

Ngatimozart.

 

[Feanor]

View attachment 50820
Interesting graph showing Russian tank losses trough time (Only visualy confirmed losses). Seems T-72 stocks are going down. Instead Russia is compensating by fielding more T-80.
Also it seems Russia can keep up with the T-90 losses by production of new ones.

It's a little annoying that they lump T-64s together with T-62s and T-55s. The former are a relatively modern MBT, certainly comparable to a T-72 and a T-80. The latter two are legacy vehicles whose use denotes a level of desperation.

However in general your assessment completely correct. T-80s have made a huge come back this war. Pre-war only a few btlns were in service with East MD and Marines. This war has seen a mass-pull of T-80s back into service. For T-90 losses vs. production, it would be nice to see absolute numbers not just percentages of total losses. There's no link so not sure where you pulled the table from. They could be a small percentage of losses but still beyond production capacity. Conversely, production capacity might considerably outpace T-90 losses.

 

[ImperatorOrbis]

T-80s have made a huge come back this war.

Was T-80 not liked/used purely because of its larger turbine fuel consumption and thus smaller operational range?

For T-90 losses vs. production, it would be nice to see absolute numbers not just percentages of total losses.

Oryx has as of now about 80 confirmed T90 losses. And by doing some google and very rough math, Uralvagonzavod can make or did make about 100 a year. Altough I think they are more focused on upgrading existing tanks than actualy making new ones.

 

[Feanor]

Was T-80 not liked/used purely because of its larger turbine fuel consumption and thus smaller operational range?

OTM died as an independent factory, and a decision was made to standardize the tank fleet around a mix of T-72B3 variants and T-90s. This plan was rolled back partially in ~2018ish when T-80BVs made it back to iirc 3-4 brigades in the Far East, and the Marine units with T-80BVM deliveries starting with the 200th Arctic Bde, and some of the Far East units. It mostly died due to interfactory rivalry and the lesser economic success of the OTM plant which made it harder to use it as the basis. Meanwhile the T-72 family and the T-90 enjoyed continuing export successes and made it easy for domestic orders to piggy-back off of the exports.

Oryx has as of now about 80 confirmed T90 losses. And by doing some google and very rough math, Uralvagonzavod can make or did make about 100 a year. Altough I think they are more focused on upgrading existing tanks than actualy making new ones.

Far more then 100 per year. Low end estimates from the UK were 200 per year. Higher end estimates from Khlopotov, a former UKBTM insider, was a max of 400 per year. Peak MBT vehicle production was iirc 2011 with 350 actual units produced, so considering some repair and upgrade work being done on existing T-72s, 200-300 T-90s per year should be doable. That greatly exceeds losses and generally matches anecdotal sightings of T-90Ms becoming more and more common.

 

[vikingatespam]

Need either lots of extra buoyancy added somehow or plating over that bloody great hole enough to float it out - perhaps lightened first. Or just dismantle it in situ.

IIRC, the outer hull is Titanium. Good luck cutting off the splinters and plating over it in an attempt to make it watertight so you can float it out.

My guess- a ton of guys with blowtorches will descend on it to cut it up. I hope they get paid by the hour.

 

[vikingatespam]

There is a good spin, sure. You can find it from the less propaganda oriented LDNR-supporting social media voices. It doesn't make it any less spin, or any less an example of classic imperialism. The issue is that conflicts aren't black and white. Russia's invasion of Ukraine is wrong. What Ukraine did to the LDNR territories and before that the anti-Maydan protesters is also wrong. One of these wrongs is of considerably greater magnitude.

I agree with what you say. it isnt black and white. But its still easy enough to identify the greater agrieved party. The "poor" actions of UKR did not equate to the RU response. if RU had done the 3 days blitz and won the whole thing, we would of shook our fingers at RU and said "dont do that again". Well, thats not what happened. RU got off cheap once, but it isnt going to now.

Ideally, Putin would pack up, and leave UKR tomorrow.

 

[vikingatespam]

View attachment 50820
Interesting graph showing Russian tank losses trough time (Only visualy confirmed losses). Seems T-72 stocks are going down. Instead Russia is compensating by fielding more T-80.
Also it seems Russia can keep up with the T-90 losses by production of new ones.

Can the T-80 be as easily modernized as the T-72 ? There are so many mods for the T-72, I have lost track.

 

[seaspear]

Are the latest production runs of the t-90 affected by sanctions ?I'm referring to special sensors no longer exported to Russia and computer chips ,do these latest models have the same capabilities as previous?

 

[Feanor]

Can the T-80 be as easily modernized as the T-72 ? There are so many mods for the T-72, I have lost track.

The T-80 and T-72 are both being modernized in nearly the same manner. The pre-war T-80BVM and T-72B3 mod'16 and during-war T-80BVM mod'22 and T-72B3 mod'22. Neither package involves doing anything with the hull or turret armor packages beyond ERA/slat armor. Both involve similar hull work to get the new autoloader in. So there should be no major difference in difficulty. There were many extra T-80Bs in storage.

I agree with what you say. it isnt black and white. But its still easy enough to identify the greater agrieved party. The "poor" actions of UKR did not equate to the RU response. if RU had done the 3 days blitz and won the whole thing, we would of shook our fingers at RU and said "dont do that again". Well, thats not what happened. RU got off cheap once, but it isnt going to now.

Ideally, Putin would pack up, and leave UKR tomorrow.

The question once again is, what exactly is "Ukraine" and what isn't. The Feb '22 border? The '91 border? Some other arrangement? The crux of the conflict currently is about where the border is.

Are the latest production runs of the t-90 affected by sanctions ?I'm referring to special sensors no longer exported to Russia and computer chips ,do these latest models have the same capabilities as previous?

The T-90M variants we've seen up until now looked like they had the same FCS package. It appears Russia still had the ability to produce Sosna/Kalina FCS at scale, just couldn't expand it to cover both mass-upgrades and new production. However it's been quiet for a while and it's hard to tell what exactly is going on. I'm hoping for an official visit to UVZ some time soon.

 

[rsemmes]

Whataboutism is a classic St.Petersburg talking point and should be avoided. If you feel strongly about Libya or Syria, please feel free to start your own thread in the proper forums.

More seriously, there is a moral difference in the RU invasion of UKR than the other actions you listed, and yes we could argue about that for some time if you like.
The RU actions in UKR are simply to expand an empire through the use of hard military power. Is there a good spin on this ?

If it doesn't agree with you point of view is "whataboutism", that is also a classic talking point, not only in Leningrad.
Oil and profits is a good spin? (Yes, off-topic).
@rsemmes Add quality to your posts of face sanction from the Moderators.

 

[vikingatespam]

The question once again is, what exactly is "Ukraine" and what isn't. The Feb '22 border? The '91 border? Some other arrangement? The crux of the conflict currently is about where the border is.

I suspect UKR control of Crimea is a maximalist position that isnt going to happen. Unless the RU army falls apart soon, I dont see western support for that forcing Crimea.

 

[vikingatespam]

If it doesn't agree with you point of view is "whataboutism", that is also a classic talking point, not only in Leningrad.
Oil and profits is a good spin? (Yes, off-topic).

Its not the same if the moral endpoint is different.

IMHO:

RU taking UKR is to expand the empire regardless of what the UKR people want. Lukashenko 2.0
US invading Iraq was to remove Saddam and install something better, and then withdraw, leaving the Iraqis in charge of their destiny.

I see a difference, others may not.

 

[Feanor]

I suspect UKR control of Crimea is a maximalist position that isnt going to happen. Unless the RU army falls apart soon, I dont see western support for that forcing Crimea.

You're assuming that the west just has Ukraine's best interests at heart and that's all there is to it. The interests involved here are;

1) Russia
2) Ukraine
3) USA
4) EU
5) various states within the EU
6) China
7 Global South sort of led by India

US support might not involve ending the conflict for Ukraine in a good way but instead keeping Russia in an unwinnable meatgrinder to weaken and keep Russia busy. And if this means Ukraine's death toll breaks 7 figures, well... "My point is very simple admittedly, but the way I look at it is that a Ukrainian air defense missile wouldn't have inadvertently fallen and killed innocent civilians if not for trying to protect said civilians from Russian aggression in the first place. " and also "And yet Russia is the one who invaded another sovereign nation, both in 2014 and 2022, so your arguments are pretty poor." It will be Russia's fault.