In the context of Russia reclaiming land that it used to possess in some form or other, who would lay claim to Kaliningrad? After all it has belonged to multiple states in the past, none of whom were Russia.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
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rsemmes
Member
UK vulnerable to potential missile or drone attack, says military chief
Russia’s total-war attacks on Ukraine citizens show up limits of UK’s air defence systems, Adm Sir Tony Radakin tells conference
www.theguardian.com
(In can read the whole article in my mobile, not on the web; unless you register).
That's the problem with "It used to be ours so it still should be". Other countries could say the same about the same territory. Turkey could lay claim to Crimea, for example. Of current countries, Denmark, Poland, Lithuania, Sweden, Turkey, Austria & Germany (& perhaps more) all ruled "Russian" territory in Europe before it was ruled by Muscovy (which only started calling itself Russia after it had conquered some other territories). And some of what's now Russia was ruled from Kyiv.
As for Kaliningrad, the Old Prussians no longer exist (dead or assimilated: most modern descendants probably live in Germany). The Teutonic Order now operates as a charitable body & has no territorial claims. Germany renounced its claim. I think Poland also formally renounced any claim (the Duchy of Prussia was a mostly German fief of Poland until 1657, formally, but I think that had ceased to be effective some time earlier).
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
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Yeah, so my answer stands. Highly vulnerable. Made slightly less vulnerable by the expulsion of the ethnic Germans who used to live there. Nobody said Russia's true ideological motivation is logically consistent on a systemic level. It isn't. Nationalism in general presupposes that your nation is special (hello American exceptionalism!) and everyone else isn't special. As it stands nobody is claiming Kaliningrad so there's that. But you're not wrong, they could, on exactly the same grounds. On the flip side, if Russia could take Kharkov, Donbass, Zaporozhye, and Kherson, they might be willing to give up Konigsberg. At least in theory. Given the practically 19th century thinking that Russian leadership has shown before, this would make sense. Practice is of course another thing. The real issue of course is that Germany laying claim to Kaliningrad would legitimize Russian claims to the Donbas. Either this behavior is acceptable or it isn't. If it is, what's the problem with Russia's invasion? If it isn't, then how does doing the same vis-a-vis Kaliningrad not be seen as the same kind of aggression?
Well... old Prussians have nothing to do with Germany or the German Order of Knights. They were Balts (so were the Teutons) not Germanics. Whatever descendents they have are purely genetic, no culture or language survives. Ruthenians on the other hand still exist. So... maybe they get Kiev? And also Novgorod?
Is the Ukraine-Russian War the First Modern Peer to Peer War we have seen since WW2? Most of the wars have been small armies fighting each other (Yugoslavia) or a Big Power facing a small overmatched country (US and USSR vs. Afghanistan). The closest parallel might be the Gulf War and that was 30 years ago.
I can see why Russia seemed unprepared for this war because there is no precedent of a Major war between 2 Big Countries using weapons manufactured in the past 30-40 years. The Big Countries are used to bullying smaller countries who don't have similar weapons.
I can see why Russia seemed unprepared for this war because there is no precedent of a Major war between 2 Big Countries using weapons manufactured in the past 30-40 years. The Big Countries are used to bullying smaller countries who don't have similar weapons.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
According to this news report North Korea have been supplying Russia with weapons and ammo for more than a month already.
I am not familiar with Korean news outlets -- is the Dong-a Ilbo considered reliable?
Pyongyang caught supplying munitions and rocket bombs to Russia | The DONG-A ILBO (donga.com)
I am not familiar with Korean news outlets -- is the Dong-a Ilbo considered reliable?
Pyongyang caught supplying munitions and rocket bombs to Russia | The DONG-A ILBO (donga.com)
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
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- #8,589
I'm not familiar with the source, but at this point I think the question isn't "will DPRK munitions show up in Russia". It's a question of "when" and "how many". I don't see anything implausible about this being the case. Russia has been sourcing munitions wherever it can.
John Fedup
The Bunker Group
One has to wonder how much Chinese kit will flow through as NK kit?
That's a good shout. One of the few wars with this level of intensity over the past 60 years.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
The Russian telegram for some time claim any missile attack to Crimea, always being prelude with US and NATO's ISTAR assets closing in to Crimea hours or day before that. If that's so actually means Russian already have warning sign on impending attack.
So it is back to Russian EW defense to guide their anti missile defense. Western sources acknowledge on Russian EW effectiveness before. Seems they are already find a way to counteract and give Ukrainian that. So it's back to Russian to recounter again.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
In regards to losses in this war. I saw an article in RU news outlet earlier today, but there was no link for the source, so I took as rubbish. I remembered about it not long ago and decided to look it up and see what I can find in the Ukrainian media using a few references I remembered. I think found the article RU outlet was referring to:
poltava.to
Via Google translate
Acting the head of the Poltava regional TCC and SP, lieutenant colonel Vitaly Berezhny, at the meeting of the 39th session of the Poltava city council, appealed to the deputies to help the military replenish the ranks of the Armed Forces.
According to him, the regional indicators of general mobilization, which are proven by the General Staff on the instructions of the President of Ukraine, are extremely low. The military needs, first of all, replenishment of military units. For example, of the 100 people who joined the units last fall, 10-20 remained, the rest are dead, wounded and disabled.
The translation is kind of rough and I can do better myself, but I figured it would be better to leave it as is.
Those numbers are quite significant. Also, kind of a weird stat to provide when trying to ramp up recruitment. He is basically saying that the probability of survival for those mobilized/signed up/drafted/etc after one year (or less) is about 10-20%.
На 15 вересня Полтава виконала лише 13% від планових показників мобілізації, які доводить Генштаб
За планами мобілізації до ЗСУ Полтавська громада на останньому місці в області. Тому в мікрорайонах та старостатах будуть розгорнуті дільниці оповіщення по встановленню військовозобов’язаних
poltava.to
Via Google translate
Acting the head of the Poltava regional TCC and SP, lieutenant colonel Vitaly Berezhny, at the meeting of the 39th session of the Poltava city council, appealed to the deputies to help the military replenish the ranks of the Armed Forces.
According to him, the regional indicators of general mobilization, which are proven by the General Staff on the instructions of the President of Ukraine, are extremely low. The military needs, first of all, replenishment of military units. For example, of the 100 people who joined the units last fall, 10-20 remained, the rest are dead, wounded and disabled.
The translation is kind of rough and I can do better myself, but I figured it would be better to leave it as is.
Those numbers are quite significant. Also, kind of a weird stat to provide when trying to ramp up recruitment. He is basically saying that the probability of survival for those mobilized/signed up/drafted/etc after one year (or less) is about 10-20%.
That's no excuse, period.
Australian and NZ are closer than almost any other two countries, common language, political structures, UK heritage, there's even a clause in the Australian Federation document, allowing NZ to become part of the Australian Federation. No Kiwi has really advocated for such and if any Kiwi politician did so they'd be booted out next election. The US and Canada, another example. They have a common border, common language, and historically linked to the UK. They have different political structures and , like Australia and NZ their economies are very intertwined. However unlike NZ and Australia there was once warfare between them, with the 1812 War being the last one. At that time Canada like Australia was ruled from London, both being UK colonies. Any Canadian advocating Canada becoming part of the US would be quickly put in their place.
In both cases you don't see the larger country militarily invading their smaller neighbours because of common heritages etc.
[quote.]Apart from all that, having UA remain in the sphere of influence of Russia is very much defendable from the Russian POV.[/quote]
No it's not. Ukraine is a separate independent country under international law and Russia has no legal or moral grounds to force Ukraine to bend to its will. End of story. Rus
So what. Ukraine has chosen what it wants to do.
That's absolute bullshit.
Maybe you should read wider than the Russian propaganda.
There are valid comparisons to be made between the Vietnam War and the Russo Ukrainian War for the reasons I have given. @Feanor is right about the Franco Algerian War being a valid comparison but I used Vietnam because I am more familiar with that war than the Franco Algerian one. I am quite critical of the American effort in the Vietnam War because they stuffed it up right from the get go. The American politicians were playing at being generals and the generals were playing at being politicians. They completely misread the situation just as Putin and his advisors have done. It was claimed by many that the US learned the lessons of the Vietnam War, but I disagree because their efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq show that they haven't.
Now with my Moderators hat on. The spouting of Russian propaganda is not acceptable here. There are those who take the Russian side but they always have a valid argument. What you have posted in your post is pure propaganda and rubbish.
Interesting question. It used to be east Prussia, from memory, and geographically it could belong to Poland. But the Poles don't want an area full of hostile Russians. The German population who had lived in modern day Kaliningrad have long gone, either fleeing west in 1944/ 45, or removed by Stalin after WW2. The Lithuanians probably would not keen on acquiring an area full of Russians either.
If no one wants it, maybe Australia and NZ could take it over as an antipodean colony.
We could use it as our base for introducing proper culture to the northern hemisphere/Kalingrad situated between Poland and Lithuania has a population of less than 500,000 ,is it unfeasible that any of the population could be offered a very generous financial compensation to move to Russia , and the two countries mentioned could divide this small country between them
That is one option. However I think that Moscow would be very opposed to losing its only winter ice free Baltic Sea port. IIRC St Petersburg is iced up during the winter.
Yup just wishful thinking ,then again with global warming who knows perhaps Murmansk is a candidate for such development certanly any naval ships departing would not immediately be in contested waters
Arctic Russia - Murmansk: the largest city north of the Arctic Circle (arctic-russia.ru)
Arctic Russia - Murmansk: the largest city north of the Arctic Circle (arctic-russia.ru)
An interesting discussion on Forgotten Weapons with a US citizen who has been working in Ukraine.
Interestingly when committing about Prigozhin's death they said that he had a special landing operation.
It is claimed that UKR has been successful in its attacks in Crimea, seriously damaging an amphibious warfare ship and a Kilo Class sub.
HI Sutton has also done a video on this and his analysis is that both vessels are lost regardless of whether they can be repaired or not. I think that his analysis is probably the better of those publicly available at the moment.
He states on his Covert Shores blog that:
We know that UKR have retaken most, if not all, of their gas drilling rigs west of Crimea (video) and that UKR attacks on Crimea are increasing its vulnerability (video). I recent months UKR have been launching a series of missile and drone attacks on Crimea with the purpose not being immediately obvious, but those attacks allowed UKR to locate and map Russian air defences in and around Crimea. Now it is clear why those earlier attacks happened.
They have succeeded in forcing Russian control of the western Black Sea back towards Crimea and I think that they will attempt to eventually move it further east of Crimea. The Russians have been unable to prevent this and at present they don't appear to have the capability to wrest control of the western part of the Black Sea back from UKR. They have effectively lost on sub that is capable of firing the Kalibar missile, reducing the sub force by one. IIRC they had 6 Kilo class subs in the Black Sea. They cannot replace it because Türkiye has closed the Bosphorus Straits to submarines.
Interestingly when committing about Prigozhin's death they said that he had a special landing operation.
It is claimed that UKR has been successful in its attacks in Crimea, seriously damaging an amphibious warfare ship and a Kilo Class sub.
HI Sutton has also done a video on this and his analysis is that both vessels are lost regardless of whether they can be repaired or not. I think that his analysis is probably the better of those publicly available at the moment.
He states on his Covert Shores blog that:
Aug-Sep 2023: Ukraine lands on and reclaims 'Boyko Towers' gas rigs/platforms in Black Sea.
Sep 13: Ukrainian strike on Sevastopol, reportedly with Storm Shadow / SCALP-EG cruise missiles. Pr.775 Ropucha class landing ship Minsk and Pr.636.3 Improved KILO Class submarine Rostov-on-Don (B-237) seriously damaged in dry dock." on his blog.
"Sep 13-14: Ukrainian USV attacks target Russian tanker Yaz and weapons transport Ursa Major in Black Sea. Russian MoD states that 11 USVs were destroyed, 3 by Pr.22160 Bykov Class patrol ship Vasily Bykov, 3 by naval aviation (likely helicopters) and 5 by Pr.22160 Bykov Class patrol ship Sergey Kotov.
Sep 14: Russian MoD reports a USV attack on Pr.1239 Bora Class missile corvette Samum"
We know that UKR have retaken most, if not all, of their gas drilling rigs west of Crimea (video) and that UKR attacks on Crimea are increasing its vulnerability (video). I recent months UKR have been launching a series of missile and drone attacks on Crimea with the purpose not being immediately obvious, but those attacks allowed UKR to locate and map Russian air defences in and around Crimea. Now it is clear why those earlier attacks happened.
They have succeeded in forcing Russian control of the western Black Sea back towards Crimea and I think that they will attempt to eventually move it further east of Crimea. The Russians have been unable to prevent this and at present they don't appear to have the capability to wrest control of the western part of the Black Sea back from UKR. They have effectively lost on sub that is capable of firing the Kalibar missile, reducing the sub force by one. IIRC they had 6 Kilo class subs in the Black Sea. They cannot replace it because Türkiye has closed the Bosphorus Straits to submarines.
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Both Liveuamap and Wikipedia claim that the RU corvette Samun was seen being towed after being struck by a UKR sea drone. I havnt seen any photo BDA yet, but there is a recent movie available showing a sea drone detonation somewhat close to a ship of this class.
Edit: well, here we go:
Edit: well, here we go: