The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

I'm going to stop simply listing all footage of vehicles getting hit from either side unless there's something remarkable about it. There's too much of it, and with my sources being primarily Russia, I give a pretty skewed picture anyway. Best sources I follow from the Russia side, for those who want to do it yourself, are;


Zaporozhye.

Basically nothing has changed. Ukrainian attacks at Verbovoe have failed. Ukraine still holds the northern outskirts of Rabotino, the rest of the village appears to be no-mans land. Russia either has no positions in the village, or just some forward LP/OPs. On the Vremyevskiy bulge Ukrainian forces are regrouping for another round of attacks. Lastly at Pyatihatka Ukraine has stopped all attacks from the looks of it. It seems the focus of Ukraine's efforts is to achieve a breakthrough at Verbovoe. Reportedly Ukraine's 71th Yegerskaya Bde is entering the fight.


Reportedly a Spartan APC destroyed near Rabotino. This is our first sighting of this type in the area, and likely indicates a new unit joining the fight. No clue which though.


Another destroyed Caesar, this one on the new Tatra chassis. Note while Caesars are now getting hit more frequently, the PzH-2000 remains scarce. However we also haven't seen footage of them in action lately. It's possible they're pulled back from the front as part of Ukraine's troop rotations.


Ukrainian forces captured a T-90M near Rabotino. I believe this is the second such trophy.


Allegedly a second destroyed Challenger 2 near Rabotino. Personally I'm not sure this isn't the same tank. For comparison in the second link we can see the confirmed first lost CR-2.


Ukraine upgraded a number of their Leo-2A4s with K-1 on the sides, and has already lost at least one such upgraded tank.


Two M88s towing a single Leo-2. This is a good illustration to the difficulties of evacuating damaged vehicles.


Russia has struck a Ukrainian military hospital in Zaporozhye. To the best of my understanding, striking hospitals is pretty much always a warcrime, unless the hospital is being used as an area from which attacks are being carried out. Given the use of gliding bombs, this is likely some distance from the front line.


Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Ukrainian attacks continue on the Andreevka-Klescheevka-Kurdyumovka line. Ukrainian forces hold parts of Klescheevka, using the hills south-west of the village, Russian forces are holding positions in the north-east, with much of the village in no-mans land. Andreevka appears to be in no-man's land, but we have some fog of war. Russian forces do hold the railroad area.


Russian Ka-52s are now active near Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Previously they were primarily focused around Zaporozhye with some appearances on the Oskol Front. This is likely in reaction to Ukraine's recent efforts here. It will be interesting to see if Russia has enough of these rotary assets to cover multiple areas.


Russia strikes a Ukrainian munitions train at Dorozhnaya station. This is the second such strike. If Russia can manage to regularly hit Ukrainian supply trains, this will compound and definitely effect the situation on the front, but it's unclear why Russia can do this now, and what has changed. These could just be two lucky strikes.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Oskol Front.

According to Rybar, Russian forces are inside Sin'kovka. However the advance has stopped. It's likely Russia is pausing before attempting the next moves. I suspect there will be some effort to attack across the river instead of directly towards Kupyansk. Ukrainian reinforcements are reported in the area.


A rare 2S7 destroyed in Kharkov region. Russia has stepped up counter-battery fires in this area, likely in an attempt to break Ukraine's artillery before a proper attack on Kupyansk.


A Russian airstrike hit a bridge across the Oskol. A systematic campaign against crossings could have some impact but we don't see that now.


Interesting tidbits.

It seems Russian forces have inched forward in Mar'inka again, taking a few blocks. This is likely an opportunistic gain while Ukraine is focused elsewhere. At some point these gains will combine to something of significance, assuming they continue. But not at this point.


A Polish Warmate loitering munition failed to detonate, while striking a Russian Grad decoy.


Ukraine's BTR-50. Much has been made of Russia reactivating old kit but the situation isn't any better, arguably worse, on Ukraine's side.


Russian 2S31s have shown up in the war. This is a self-propelled mortar on the BMP-3 chassis. Previously Russia has produced it for export only, though the Lotos and Magnoliya systems are basically this same turret and gun/mortar system but on different chassis. Note the 98th Airborne's artillery rgt is using it. It's likely serving as a Nona-S replacement. In principle this is logical and Russia badly needs modern SP mortars. However there are serious doubts that Russia can mass-produce this relatively complex system. I suspect best case scenario is 2-3 btlns per year.


In the absence of modern SP mortars, Russian forces improvise pretty consistently. Here's an entire battery of 2B9 automatic mortars in improvised open platforms on MT-LB chassis. I believe these are LDNR forces.


Some interesting Ukrainian MT-LBs from Dnepr btln. This variant features a new turret in the rear, and additional armor. The MT-LB has emerged as the light-armor chassis multi-tool of this war being used for everything, from traditional artillery towing, MEDEVAC, to less traditional APC/IFV roles, finally to tank-destroyer and even MLRS.


A rare Spanish VRAC, based on the Pegaso APC, has shown up in Ukraine. We have had no official info on their delivery, but it's entirely possible this was done through private channels. It's a reminder that aid to Ukraine is much more then just what gets announced and handed over with much fanfare.


Ukraine is getting a 2nd batch of 40 Marders. Note Marders have been in action but only one is confirmed lost and even that one looked recoverable.


First Leo-1A5s have arrived in Ukraine.


Russia is claiming a destroyed M198 howitzer in Ukraine. I don't recall news of their deliveries either. Of course we don't have footage so this could just be wrong.


Russian Marines near Ugledar show off their 2M-3M and ZU-23-2 on MT-LB. Note these are clearly not the same ones we saw earlier. Note these are open-topped, they're installed in a way where they don't tower over the chassis and on the whole look much less ridiculous. In the second link we have the 39th Motor-Rifles with a similar set up. They are also from East MD. In general it seems Russia is definitely putting these out in some quantity. And they must not be completely ineffective since this is a continuing effort.


Russia continues to ship armored cabins for Kamaz trucks to the war zone.


Russia has begun constructing air-defense towers around Moscow with Pantsyr-1 systems on them.


In attempts to find uses for the Mi-28N helos that don't have the range to stay out of Ukrainian MANPADS range, some are being used as UAV-hunters.


And I think this is a Mi-28NM (look at the nose) with Vikhr-1 ATGMs. Note while in principle you could put these missiles on older Mi-28 variants, the problem is their electro-optics and the range they can detect vehicles at.


Shiny brand new Russian Svinets-2 APSFDS rounds in Ukraine. While they are not on par with the newest western equivalents, they should be adequate against practically all of Ukraine's MBTs save the best protected ones.

 

swerve

Super Moderator
Kalingrad situated between Poland and Lithuania has a population of less than 500,000 ,is it unfeasible that any of the population could be offered a very generous financial compensation to move to Russia , and the two countries mentioned could divide this small country between them
About a million, actually. 500,000 is the population of the city. The population of the oblast may be less than in 1939.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Quite a lot actually.
For whatever reason you seem to be implying that UA is "just a country" next to Russia.
Well, the two peoples were intertwined during their history. They both descend from the Kievan Rus. The territory of Ukraine (nomen est omen itself) became a subject of the Russian Empire not long after the Golden Horde disappeared. They both speak the same language (Ukrainian language is a relatively recent "innovation" and it was mostly the invention of the turbo-nationalist Ukrainians in/around Lvov).
This is the Russian propaganda line. Philologists disagree.

Russian was a dialect continuum. Some collections of dialects had collective names, e.g. Rusyn/Ruthenian. There were various written forms, because local dialects were written as they sounded. The "official" (as in the one used for written records) language of Lithuania (which included a large part of what is now Ukraine), for example, was a variety of Ruthenian. Modern Ukrainian is descended from that group of dialects.

"Russian", as in the version used in Moscow, is just as much as 'a relatively recent "innovation"'. By the time the rise of Muscovy established Moscow Russian as the dominant form in the main Russian state, in the late middle ages, the division between the eastern dialects ("Russian") & Ruthenian was already established. The political division between Poland/Lithuania & Muscovy merely cemented an already existing linguistic difference.
The two countries remained very close even after the breakup of the USSR. A lot of families, businesses have roots deep in both countries.
All in all, it's not just another country for Russia.
It is for most Ukrainians, & that's what matters. What part of 'self-determination' & 'democracy' don't you understand? My family has roots in five or six countries. Does that justify India invading Japan, or the UK invading Denmark, or Germany invading Bangladesh? That's what you seem to think.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group

Video that claim capture of Ukrainian personnel on Russian control Dniper banks. Seems want to strengthen claim that most Ukrainian infiltration has been taken. On the other hand it's also confirmed continue Ukrainian infiltration on Russian side. Two side of stories depend on what you want to see.


Photo from Samum recent condition after back to Sevastopol, that's seems going to rebute Ukrainian claim on Samum damage due to their drones attack.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member

Photo from Samum recent condition after back to Sevastopol, that's seems going to rebute Ukrainian claim on Samum damage due to their drones attack.
I think this (the video) is a good analysis on the subject posted on the previous page:

Both Liveuamap and Wikipedia claim that the RU corvette Samun was seen being towed after being struck by a UKR sea drone. I havnt seen any photo BDA yet, but there is a recent movie available showing a sea drone detonation somewhat close to a ship of this class.

Edit: well, here we go:
 

Egede

New Member
That's no excuse, period.

Australian and NZ are closer than almost any other two countries, common language, political structures, UK heritage, there's even a clause in the Australian Federation document, allowing NZ to become part of the Australian Federation. No Kiwi has really advocated for such and if any Kiwi politician did so they'd be booted out next election. The US and Canada, another example. They have a common border, common language, and historically linked to the UK. They have different political structures and , like Australia and NZ their economies are very intertwined. However unlike NZ and Australia there was once warfare between them, with the 1812 War being the last one. At that time Canada like Australia was ruled from London, both being UK colonies. Any Canadian advocating Canada becoming part of the US would be quickly put in their place.

In both cases you don't see the larger country militarily invading their smaller neighbours because of common heritages etc.
[quote.
NATO Secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg said Russia invaded Ukraine because of NATO expansion, he clearly says, Russia sent NATO a draft resolution and NATO refused to sign it.


@ngatimozart do u think that if NATO had negotiated that draft resolution, this war would have been prevented? Knowing the tense history between NATO and the Soviet Union, if you were the president of Russia, won’t you have any problems with a very powerful military organisation on your borders, especially when it’s one of your old enemies?

I saw this article on the same subject, don’t know how trustworthy this outlet is but it’s quite a read.

 
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Egede

New Member
@Feanor Ukraine has been bullying Russia in the Black Sea and Crimea is becoming more vulnerable to missile strikes, do u think the Russians can do anything about it, how do u think they can counter this? Those naval drones are a big problem
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Photo from Samum recent condition after back to Sevastopol, that's seems going to rebute Ukrainian claim on Samum damage due to their drones attack.
I have seen other videos claiming its actually the Bora that was hit, due to identification of the ships emblem. Im trying to find the youtube video.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
NATO Secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg said Russia invaded Ukraine because of NATO expansion, he clearly says, Russia sent NATO a draft resolution and NATO refused to sign it.


@ngatimozart do u think that if NATO had negotiated that draft resolution, this war would have been prevented? Knowing the tense history between NATO and the Soviet Union, if you were the president of Russia, won’t you have any problems with a very powerful military organisation on your borders, especially when it’s one of your old enemies?

I saw this article on the same subject, don’t know how trustworthy this outlet is but it’s quite a read.

Putins demand not to increase NATO was a total smokescreen. If Putin really had concerns about NATO, he wouldnt of worked so hard to get Finland and Sweden to join. He also would not denude his northern border of troops if he was afraid of NATO:


He wouldnt of removed most forces (11th Corps ?) from Kaliningrad:


...and so on...

RU didnt abide by previous treaty terms so there is no reason to think he would abide by a newer one.

Furthermore, what is this "tense" history of NATO vs RU ? Has NATO invaded RU territory ? NATO solely exists due to RU expansionism. If Putin doesnt want further NATO expansion maybe he could stop invading bordering countries. NATO was dying on the vine in 2021. Well, its expanding now, thanks to this new cold war Putin started.
 
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vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
@Feanor Ukraine has been bullying Russia in the Black Sea and Crimea is becoming more vulnerable to missile strikes, do u think the Russians can do anything about it, how do u think they can counter this? Those naval drones are a big problem
Im not sure if "bullying" is the correct term... maybe "defending themselves from RU combat vessels" is a better term. RU keeps losing ships to a second rate local power with virtually no navy. You can thank the incompetent RU command for that.

As for what RU can do, the easiest thing would be for Putin to choke on a ham sandwich and his successor to pull back forces to the Feb 2022 lines.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
@Feanor Ukraine has been bullying Russia in the Black Sea and Crimea is becoming more vulnerable to missile strikes, do u think the Russians can do anything about it, how do u think they can counter this? Those naval drones are a big problem
They're actually not that effective. They mostly get destroyed. The real issue is that Ukraine can keep doing this nearly indefinitely. Low effectiveness over long time periods still creates a cumulative effect. Even Ukraine's speed-boat raids have mostly been failures with Ukrainian raiding parties getting repulsed with losses by aircraft regularly. Storm Shadow strikes are another thing of course. These are relatively modern and capable cruise missiles that Russia is having a predictably hard time with. I think Russia will beef up their air defenses over Crimea, and increase maritime strike assets readiness to counter small boat raids. For in garrison naval units static defenses will continue to ramp up in the form of floating barriers and guard posts that can fire on the drones. For ships at sea they will remain an ever-present threat. None of this really moves the needle when it comes to front line combat operations. If Ukraine can't chew through the defenses in Zaporozhye, no amount of pin-prick strikes will bring down Russia in Crimea. We know this very well because Russia has carried out far bigger and wider reaching strikes all across Ukraine for almost a year now, since the long-range strike campaign started last fall. Is Ukraine defeated? Obviously not. And Ukraine can only strike a few parts of Russia. Russian control of the Black Sea will be more tenuous, but they will continue to pummel Ukrainian port infrastructure since this is much easier then actually stopping and inspecting ships (especially considering how thin Russia is on helos for such operations, the Ka-29 fleet is both very old and tiny). In the future Russia probably won't be able to stop all ships heading into Ukraine but will be able to stop Ukraine's ports from being major shipping arteries.

Im not sure if "bullying" is the correct term... maybe "defending themselves from RU combat vessels" is a better term. RU keeps losing ships to a second rate local power with virtually no navy. You can thank the incompetent RU command for that.

As for what RU can do, the easiest thing would be for Putin to choke on a ham sandwich and his successor to pull back forces to the Feb 2022 lines.
No. You can thank western ISR for that. Without the massive fleets of western ELINT/SIGINT/AEW aircraft constantly patrolling around the edges Ukraine wouldn't be able to accomplish most of this. And let's not forget western satellite intel. The real solution would be to shoot Ukrainian ISR assets out of the sky and make targeting Russian ships much harder. You'd have to find them somehow. But since the assets aren't actually Ukrainian, they're "neutral", this isn't an option. So Russia is left with the sub-optimal approach of trying to intercept the boats with mostly good success rates, but again low impact over many many attempts still adds up. And Russian naval repair and construction yards are in bad shape overall.

As for the Feb-22 line, that's not really an option. First off Ukraine has declared they will push to the '91 border. Second off, if Ukraine can force Russia back, what's to stop them from using the "peace" as a pause, rearming, and then resuming the fight with Crimea now in artillery range? Russia has no good option to get out of this war at this time. Both sides will have to fight this until the situation reaches some sort of decision point. Possibly when European NATO exhausts their stockpiles. Possibly when Russia exhausts theirs. Probably a combination of the two. Unless the US really commits and turns on the spigot, in which case Russia will probably have to go nuclear before any real negotiations are possible. It's also possible Russia has an internal crisis that changes the situation fairly drastically. Or Ukraine for that matter. Unclear which way the pendulum would swing there, both are possible, though not equally likely.

RU didnt abide by previous treaty terms so there is no reason to think he would abide by a newer one.
Ukraine didn't abide by the Minsk Accords, and apparently the Germans were negotiating in bad faith two. Let's not open that can of trust-breaching worms. There is no trust from either side, and no reason for there to be any.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
NATO Secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg said Russia invaded Ukraine because of NATO expansion, he clearly says, Russia sent NATO a draft resolution and NATO refused to sign it.


@ngatimozart do u think that if NATO had negotiated that draft resolution, this war would have been prevented? Knowing the tense history between NATO and the Soviet Union, if you were the president of Russia, won’t you have any problems with a very powerful military organisation on your borders, especially when it’s one of your old enemies?

I saw this article on the same subject, don’t know how trustworthy this outlet is but it’s quite a read.

The text of what Stoltenberg said, taken from your link:
"... Then lastly on Sweden. First of all, it is historic that now Finland is member of the Alliance. And we have to remember the background. The background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement. That was what he sent us. And was a pre-condition for not invade Ukraine. Of course we didn't sign that.
The opposite happened. He wanted us to sign that promise, never to enlarge NATO. He wanted us to remove our military infrastructure in all Allies that have joined NATO since 1997, meaning half of NATO, all the Central and Eastern Europe, we should remove NATO from that part of our Alliance, introducing some kind of B, or second class membership. We rejected that.
So he went to war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders. He has got the exact opposite. He has got more NATO presence in eastern part of the Alliance and he has also seen that Finland has already joined the Alliance and Sweden will soon be a full member. Because at Vilnius Summit, we agreed a statement where it was clearly expressed how Sweden will do more, follow up the agreement we had in Madrid on fighting terrorism, and also address issues related to export of military equipment, and then Türkiye made it clear that they will ratify as soon as possible."

He is clearly stating what happened and Putin had been moaning about NATO expansion well before 2021 because it hindered his attempts to invade foreign territory. All of the nations that joined NATO since 1991 have done precisely because of historical Russian aggression. Many have had experience of being under the control of Moscow and they don't care to repeat that experience. Any nation that wants to join NATO has to apply and there are some very specific requirements that have to be met. You should read up on that instead of repeating Russian propaganda. Why would Sweden set aside 300 years of neutrality and apply to join NATO? Why did Finland set aside 80 years of neutrality to join NATO. And why did both of these nations do so in the last 12 months. If Russia isn't such a treat to them they would not have had any need.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
They're actually not that effective. They mostly get destroyed. The real issue is that Ukraine can keep doing this nearly indefinitely. Low effectiveness over long time periods still creates a cumulative effect. Even Ukraine's speed-boat raids have mostly been failures with Ukrainian raiding parties getting repulsed with losses by aircraft regularly. Storm Shadow strikes are another thing of course. These are relatively modern and capable cruise missiles that Russia is having a predictably hard time with. I think Russia will beef up their air defenses over Crimea, and increase maritime strike assets readiness to counter small boat raids. For in garrison naval units static defenses will continue to ramp up in the form of floating barriers and guard posts that can fire on the drones. For ships at sea they will remain an ever-present threat. None of this really moves the needle when it comes to front line combat operations. If Ukraine can't chew through the defenses in Zaporozhye, no amount of pin-prick strikes will bring down Russia in Crimea. We know this very well because Russia has carried out far bigger and wider reaching strikes all across Ukraine for almost a year now, since the long-range strike campaign started last fall. Is Ukraine defeated? Obviously not. And Ukraine can only strike a few parts of Russia. Russian control of the Black Sea will be more tenuous, but they will continue to pummel Ukrainian port infrastructure since this is much easier then actually stopping and inspecting ships (especially considering how thin Russia is on helos for such operations, the Ka-29 fleet is both very old and tiny). In the future Russia probably won't be able to stop all ships heading into Ukraine but will be able to stop Ukraine's ports from being major shipping arteries.
Those USV have been effective because they have helped force the Russian Black Sea fleet on to the back foot. They are cheap which allows large numbers to be used. They may not have the warheads to break a frigates back, but they are still doing damage, hence I wouldn't so casually discount them. It's not just their kinetic capability that counts, but the larger effects that the have on the Russians that is important.
No. You can thank western ISR for that. Without the massive fleets of western ELINT/SIGINT/AEW aircraft constantly patrolling around the edges Ukraine wouldn't be able to accomplish most of this. And let's not forget western satellite intel. The real solution would be to shoot Ukrainian ISR assets out of the sky and make targeting Russian ships much harder. You'd have to find them somehow. But since the assets aren't actually Ukrainian, they're "neutral", this isn't an option. So Russia is left with the sub-optimal approach of trying to intercept the boats with mostly good success rates, but again low impact over many many attempts still adds up. And Russian naval repair and construction yards are in bad shape overall.

As for the Feb-22 line, that's not really an option. First off Ukraine has declared they will push to the '91 border. Second off, if Ukraine can force Russia back, what's to stop them from using the "peace" as a pause, rearming, and then resuming the fight with Crimea now in artillery range? Russia has no good option to get out of this war at this time. Both sides will have to fight this until the situation reaches some sort of decision point. Possibly when European NATO exhausts their stockpiles. Possibly when Russia exhausts theirs. Probably a combination of the two. Unless the US really commits and turns on the spigot, in which case Russia will probably have to go nuclear before any real negotiations are possible. It's also possible Russia has an internal crisis that changes the situation fairly drastically. Or Ukraine for that matter. Unclear which way the pendulum would swing there, both are possible, though not equally likely.

Ukraine didn't abide by the Minsk Accords, and apparently the Germans were negotiating in bad faith two. Let's not open that can of trust-breaching worms. There is no trust from either side, and no reason for there to be any.
Why should Ukraine abide by accords that were of no help to them. They didn't gain anything out of those accords and claims that NATO members negotiated in bad faith are pure hypocrisy, considering Putin's track record.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Those USV have been effective because they have helped force the Russian Black Sea fleet on to the back foot. They are cheap which allows large numbers to be used. They may not have the warheads to break a frigates back, but they are still doing damage, hence I wouldn't so casually discount them. It's not just their kinetic capability that counts, but the larger effects that the have on the Russians that is important.
I think we're saying the same thing. They won't cause a major adjustment in Russian tactics, but in the medium term they have an operational impact out of proportion to their tactical effectiveness.

Why should Ukraine abide by accords that were of no help to them. They didn't gain anything out of those accords and claims that NATO members negotiated in bad faith are pure hypocrisy, considering Putin's track record.
They should abide by them because they signed them. This doesn't just apply to Ukraine, by the way. It applies to both sides. Not that they're going to listen to me...

As for the claim about bad faith, this is not hypocrisy. I didn't negotiate in bad faith with anyone, and Putin isn't the one making the claim. I am. I am doing this based on Merkel's own statement.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
They should abide by them because they signed them. This doesn't just apply to Ukraine, by the way. It applies to both sides. Not that they're going to listen to me...
They don't listen to me either, so we're both in the same boat :cool:
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Some updates.
ISW 14/9/23
  • Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and around Bakhmut and reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut on September 14.
  • Ukrainian forces struck a Russian air defense system near occupied Yevpatoria, Crimea, on September 14, suggesting that there may be systemic tactical failures with Russian air defense systems in occupied Crimea.
  • Russian forces conducted another series of Shahed-131/136 drone strikes targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure on September 14.
  • The commander of the Russian 247th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) Vasily Popov was reportedly killed in combat in Ukraine.
  • Some Russian sources suggested that ongoing tensions between the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Wagner Group are diminishing Wagner’s ability to operate across the African theater.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 14.
  • Ukrainian forces also advanced along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  • The Kremlin is reportedly trying to censor Russian media coverage of a possible second wave of reserve mobilization in order to prevent protests and voter discontent ahead of the 2024 Russian presidential elections.
ISW 15/9/23
  • Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and around Bakhmut and reportedly advanced south of Bakhmut on September 14.
  • Ukrainian forces struck a Russian air defense system near occupied Yevpatoria, Crimea, on September 14, suggesting that there may be systemic tactical failures with Russian air defense systems in occupied Crimea.
  • Russian forces conducted another series of Shahed-131/136 drone strikes targeting Ukrainian port infrastructure on September 14.
  • The commander of the Russian 247th Guards Air Assault (VDV) Regiment (7th VDV Division) Vasily Popov was reportedly killed in combat in Ukraine.
  • Some Russian sources suggested that ongoing tensions between the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Wagner Group are diminishing Wagner’s ability to operate across the African theater.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 14.
  • Ukrainian forces also advanced along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line.
  • The Kremlin is reportedly trying to censor Russian media coverage of a possible second wave of reserve mobilization in order to prevent protests and voter discontent ahead of the 2024 Russian presidential elections.
ISW 15/9/23
  • Ukrainian forces liberated Andriivka in the Bakhmut area on September 14 and continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 15.
  • Russian State Duma Deputy and former Deputy Commander of the Southern Military District (SMD) Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev complained about lying within the Russian military and highlighted the effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses against Russian helicopters.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted naval drone strikes on Russian ships in the Black Sea on September 14.
  • Russian forces conducted another series of Shahed-131/-136 drone strikes targeting Ukrainian rear areas on September 15.
  • Russian State Duma Defense Committee Chairman Andrei Kartapolov explicitly stated that mobilized personnel will only demobilize at the end of Russia’s “special military operation.”
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues efforts to assume control over the Wagner Group’s operations in North Africa and may have assigned former commander of the Aerospace Forces (VKS) Sergei Surovikin to this task.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas on September 15.
  • Russian occupation authorities continue efforts to strengthen ground lines of communication (GLOCs) connecting occupied southern Ukraine to Russia and occupied Crimea.
ISW 16/9/23
  • Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction on September 16 and continued to make gains in the area.
  • Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast have likely forced the Russian command to prioritize the Russian defense there and laterally redeploy elements of a relatively elite formation away from the Russian defense south of Bakhmut.
  • Ukrainian forces also advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast on September 16 and continued to penetrate the Russian defensive layer that lies ahead of the current extent of Ukrainian advances.
  • Ukrainian forces have likely made a significant tactical breach along a section of the current Russian defense layer in the Robotyne area over the past several weeks that they continue to widen.
  • Russian ultranationalists continued to complain about endemic lying within the Russian military after Russian State Duma Deputy and former Deputy Commander of the Southern Military District (SMD) Lieutenant General Andrei Gurulev voiced similar complaints on September 15.
  • A Ukrainian naval drone strike likely damaged a Russian ship in the Black Sea on September 14.
  • A Ukrainian official confirmed on September 16 that a civilian vessel used the Ukrainian corridor in the Black Sea to reach a Ukrainian port for the first time.
  • Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un met in Vladivostok, where Kim viewed pieces of Russian weapons technology on September 16.
  • The Russian military leadership may be removing ineffective air defense officials on the pretext of corruption charges to avoid admitting the failures of Russian air defenses against increasing drone strikes on Russian cities including Moscow.
  • Russian military officials continue efforts to solidify Russia’s relationship with African states amidst changing dynamics on the continent resulting from the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) efforts to subsume the Wagner Group.
  • Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia on September 16 and advanced in some areas.
  • Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on September 16 and advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.
  • Russian milbloggers continue complaining about the role of the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) in perpetuating issues affecting Russian military personnel.
  • Russian occupation officials continue efforts to resettle residential areas of occupied Ukraine with Russians.
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Ukrainian based Updates:

This one discusses the UKR USV drone activity, manufacturing, and improvements intended. It also said that the US has delivered some 3D printers to UKR which will help increase manufacturing capabilities. It also claims that two Russian patrol warships were attacked by USV in the last 24 hours.

UKR claims that the Russian 72nd Division was destroyed in Andriivka. It claims that Russian artillery deliberately shelled surrendering Russian troops.


Claims of UKR liberation of village south of Bakhmut.
 

Egede

New Member
The text of what Stoltenberg said, taken from your link:
"... Then lastly on Sweden. First of all, it is historic that now Finland is member of the Alliance. And we have to remember the background. The background was that President Putin declared in the autumn of 2021, and actually sent a draft treaty that they wanted NATO to sign, to promise no more NATO enlargement. That was what he sent us. And was a pre-condition for not invade Ukraine. Of course we didn't sign that.
The opposite happened. He wanted us to sign that promise, never to enlarge NATO. He wanted us to remove our military infrastructure in all Allies that have joined NATO since 1997, meaning half of NATO, all the Central and Eastern Europe, we should remove NATO from that part of our Alliance, introducing some kind of B, or second class membership. We rejected that.
So he went to war to prevent NATO, more NATO, close to his borders. He has got the exact opposite. He has got more NATO presence in eastern part of the Alliance and he has also seen that Finland has already joined the Alliance and Sweden will soon be a full member. Because at Vilnius Summit, we agreed a statement where it was clearly expressed how Sweden will do more, follow up the agreement we had in Madrid on fighting terrorism, and also address issues related to export of military equipment, and then Türkiye made it clear that they will ratify as soon as possible."

He is clearly stating what happened and Putin had been moaning about NATO expansion well before 2021 because it hindered his attempts to invade foreign territory. All of the nations that joined NATO since 1991 have done precisely because of historical Russian aggression. Many have had experience of being under the control of Moscow and they don't care to repeat that experience. Any nation that wants to join NATO has to apply and there are some very specific requirements that have to be met. You should read up on that instead of repeating Russian propaganda. Why would Sweden set aside 300 years of neutrality and apply to join NATO? Why did Finland set aside 80 years of neutrality to join NATO. And why did both of these nations do so in the last 12 months. If Russia isn't such a treat to them they would not have had any need.
I am not repeating Russian propaganda, a lot of people are dying and it will remain so for some time. Am just wondering why NATO didn’t attempt to negotiate that draft resolution, give Russia something, maybe Ukraine and Georgia won’t be admitted into the alliance. That would have brought some peace that all parties can work on.
just imagine if I was a Russian and you are telling me that NATO can expand but Russia not allowed to expand.
Don’t you think there is a valid reason why the global south is still sitting on the fence?
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
just imagine if I was a Russian and you are telling me that NATO can expand but Russia not allowed to expand.
I didn’t want to get into this. Especially because I already posted on the subject previously a couple of times (once quite extensively in another thread). However, just to note, NATO expanding and “Russia expanding” (I am laughing here, actually), are not exactly the same. You are talking about a defensive alliance (we can talk about that elsewhere) of independent countries, where other independent countries may join, as well as leave if they wish to do so. On the other end, you are talking about an independent state absorbing another independent state against their will.

I mean (I think) I understand what you are trying to say. I don’t even necessarily disagree with it entirely (maybe? At least from what I understand you are trying to say). But this is clearly a very poor choice of words, intentionally or otherwise.
 

Egede

New Member
I didn’t want to get into this. Especially because I already posted on the subject previously a couple of times (once quite extensively in another thread). However, just to note, NATO expanding and “Russia expanding” (I am laughing here, actually), are not exactly the same. You are talking about a defensive alliance (we can talk about that elsewhere) of independent countries, where other independent countries may join, as well as leave if they wish to do so. On the other end, you are talking about an independent state absorbing another independent state against their will.

I mean (I think) I understand what you are trying to say. I don’t even necessarily disagree with it entirely (maybe? At least from what I understand you are trying to say). But this is clearly a very poor choice of words, intentionally or otherwise.
Thank you for the correction, I was trying to refer to things like the CSTO which is a Russian led military alliance in the same region
 
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