Big_Zucchini
Well-Known Member
I will clarify again: This was a simple math exercise. Not a political comment.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
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vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
No one has said anything about the strike on Sevastopol. Another UKR left hook, from right field. OSINT sources have 1 sub and 1 Rapucha damaged beyond repair, and the drydocks will be unusable until those get cleaned out.
Its probably hopium, but sometimes I get the feeling that the RU are getting played as suckers.
Its probably hopium, but sometimes I get the feeling that the RU are getting played as suckers.
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Ananda
The Bunker Group
Рыбарь
❗️ Хроника специальной военной операции за 13 сентября 2023 года Сегодня ночью ВСУ атаковали Севастополь крылатыми ракетами Storm Shadow. Три ракеты достигли цели из-за чего находившиеся в сухом доке десантный корабль «Минск» и подводная лодка «Ростов-на-Дону» получили повреждения. При этом...
t.me
Russian Telegram saying that Minsk and Rostov-on-Don only taking some Damage. So if this is only some damage and not heavy damage or damage beyond repair as Ukrainian and some Western sources claim, the Russian telegram ussualy going to shown latest pictures of both Landing Ships and Kilo Sub soon.
Russian telegram like Ukrainian channel full of propagandist. However so far on the losses of Russian capital ships, they will shown if it is loss or not. If they don't produce rebuttal pictures within a week, then ussualy it is acknowledge that the damage is severe close to loss.
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
I cant find the link now, but there were satellite pics from the Project Owl Discord channel that showed damage beyond repair. This should all be clarified soon. While neither is a capital ship, either loss is serious.Рыбарь
❗️ Хроника специальной военной операции за 13 сентября 2023 года Сегодня ночью ВСУ атаковали Севастополь крылатыми ракетами Storm Shadow. Три ракеты достигли цели из-за чего находившиеся в сухом доке десантный корабль «Минск» и подводная лодка «Ростов-на-Дону» получили повреждения. При этом...
Russian Telegram saying that Minsk and Rostov-on-Don only taking some Damage. So if this is only some damage and not heavy damage or damage beyond repair as Ukrainian and some Western sources claim, the Russian telegram ussualy going to shown latest pictures of both Landing Ships and Kilo Sub soon.
Russian telegram like Ukrainian channel full of propagandist. However so far on the losses of Russian capital ships, they will shown if it is loss or not. If they don't produce rebuttal pictures within a week, then ussualy it is acknowledge that the damage is severe close to loss.
Edit: found one pic.
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@rsemmes
WRT to the US use of nuclear weapons against Japan, they most likely saved many millions of allied and Japanese lives, especially Japanese civilians. The allies prepared OP DOWNFALL the invasion of Japan and it was to be in two parts, OP OLYMPIC and OP CORONET. The first part was OP OLYMPIC the invasion of the Japanese home island of Kyushu. The intention was to occupy the lower 1/3 of the island and use that as the launch base for OP CORONET, which was the invasion of Kanto Plains on the main island of Honshu with the object of capturing Tokyo. The D-Day for OLYMPIC was to be 1/11/1945 and CORONET in the spring of 1946.
When one launches an assault against an enemy one should have twice the number of forces than the defenders. An invasion from sea is the most complex and dangerous of all military activities because if you get into trouble, you have your backs up against the sea which has a good potential for unsustainable losses of troops and equipment if you are unable to evacuate your forces in good order. Unbeknownst to the American planners, the Japanese defenders on Kyushu out numbered the American invasion force, and had the very good probability of throwing the Americans back into the sea. The Japanese had been quietly increasing the forces on Kyushu, because they correctly assumed that it would be the first invasion point of the home islands. They also knew what beaches the Americans would land on, not because of a brilliant espionage operation, but because there are only two beaches on Kyushu where an amphibious landing could be undertaken. So they planned their defence accordingly.
Gone was the defence style of Iwo Jima where they let the Americans land with the defensive works and strong points in the hinterland. This time the defence was triple layered with the first line of defence to be upfront and personal on the landing beaches using low quality troops, militia and armed civilians. The second line of defence was inland with higher quality troops, artillery ad some armour. The third line of defence was the best troops and equipment that the defenders had. These were from the 8th Army in China who were the Imperial Japanese Army's best trained, equipped and most experienced forces. That army had always commanded the best in troops and equipment because it was facing the Soviet Russians. Even though the Japanese knew that Stalin had no immediate plans in the East, they didn't trust him. Interestingly enough when Stalin launched his forces against the Japanese in northern China, the Russians cut through the Japanese forces like a hot knife through butter. The IJA-AF had quite a number of aircraft hidden away ready to defend against such an attack. After the Japanese surrender, the allies were quite amazed at the number of combat aircraft the Japanese had hidden around the home islands etc. It wasn't hundreds but tens of thousands.
If the Japanese hadn't unconditionally surrendered after the second atomic bombing, OP DOWNFALL would have happened and many Japanese civilians would have been killed fighting against the allies. Unlike Iwo Jima and Okinawa where the majority of civilians suicided to prevent capture by the Americans, those on the home islands had been trained and instructed in how to kill foreign invaders. They were expected to die in the service of their emperor, many of them only armed with spears, staves and knives. This included women and children.
Sources:
Giangreco DM: (2009) Hell To Pay: Operation DOWNFALL and the Invasion of Japan, 1945 - 1947, Naval Institute Press, Annapolis, MD, USA.
Allen TB & Polmar N: (1995) Codename DOWNFALL, The Secret Plan To Invade Japan - And Why Truman Dropped The Bomb, Simon and Shuster, New York, USA.
Zaloga SJ: (2010) Defense Of Japan 1945, Osprey, Oxford, UK.
I think it's somewhat disingenuous introducing the topic of the US nuclear attacks on Japan and Trumans reasons for doing so into this discussion because the Japanese culture and situation at the time were unique. There is nothing to suggest that either Russia or Ukraine have the same fatalistic, fanatical, and cultural beliefs that the Japanese did in 1945.
The Ukrainians will, and have been, fighting harder and have more of reason to do so than the Russians. The Ukrainians are fighting for their continued cultural, political and physical existence against an enemy who wants to eradicate them. What is your average Russian soldier fighting for? What political or cultural belief exists that unites them? If you want to compare the Russians in this war to the Americans, then look no further than the Vietnam War of the 1960s - 70s. It had little public support in the US by 1968, with many Americans turning against it. The official govt line that it was to protect the free world from the evils of communism no longer held sway and unlike WW2 in both the US and Russia both wars aren't existential threats to either Russia or the US.
Neither country was responding to an attack on its homeland by a foreign aggressor. In the Russian case, no matter how much Putin claims that his war on Ukraine equates to the Great Patriotic War of 1941 - 45, it doesn't ring true with modern Russia. In the case of the Vietnam War the US wasn't attacked by a foreign aggressor, hence the general publics response wasn't anywhere near the same as it was after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour on 7/12/1941.
WRT to the US use of nuclear weapons against Japan, they most likely saved many millions of allied and Japanese lives, especially Japanese civilians. The allies prepared OP DOWNFALL the invasion of Japan and it was to be in two parts, OP OLYMPIC and OP CORONET. The first part was OP OLYMPIC the invasion of the Japanese home island of Kyushu. The intention was to occupy the lower 1/3 of the island and use that as the launch base for OP CORONET, which was the invasion of Kanto Plains on the main island of Honshu with the object of capturing Tokyo. The D-Day for OLYMPIC was to be 1/11/1945 and CORONET in the spring of 1946.
When one launches an assault against an enemy one should have twice the number of forces than the defenders. An invasion from sea is the most complex and dangerous of all military activities because if you get into trouble, you have your backs up against the sea which has a good potential for unsustainable losses of troops and equipment if you are unable to evacuate your forces in good order. Unbeknownst to the American planners, the Japanese defenders on Kyushu out numbered the American invasion force, and had the very good probability of throwing the Americans back into the sea. The Japanese had been quietly increasing the forces on Kyushu, because they correctly assumed that it would be the first invasion point of the home islands. They also knew what beaches the Americans would land on, not because of a brilliant espionage operation, but because there are only two beaches on Kyushu where an amphibious landing could be undertaken. So they planned their defence accordingly.
Gone was the defence style of Iwo Jima where they let the Americans land with the defensive works and strong points in the hinterland. This time the defence was triple layered with the first line of defence to be upfront and personal on the landing beaches using low quality troops, militia and armed civilians. The second line of defence was inland with higher quality troops, artillery ad some armour. The third line of defence was the best troops and equipment that the defenders had. These were from the 8th Army in China who were the Imperial Japanese Army's best trained, equipped and most experienced forces. That army had always commanded the best in troops and equipment because it was facing the Soviet Russians. Even though the Japanese knew that Stalin had no immediate plans in the East, they didn't trust him. Interestingly enough when Stalin launched his forces against the Japanese in northern China, the Russians cut through the Japanese forces like a hot knife through butter. The IJA-AF had quite a number of aircraft hidden away ready to defend against such an attack. After the Japanese surrender, the allies were quite amazed at the number of combat aircraft the Japanese had hidden around the home islands etc. It wasn't hundreds but tens of thousands.
If the Japanese hadn't unconditionally surrendered after the second atomic bombing, OP DOWNFALL would have happened and many Japanese civilians would have been killed fighting against the allies. Unlike Iwo Jima and Okinawa where the majority of civilians suicided to prevent capture by the Americans, those on the home islands had been trained and instructed in how to kill foreign invaders. They were expected to die in the service of their emperor, many of them only armed with spears, staves and knives. This included women and children.
Sources:
Giangreco DM: (2009) Hell To Pay: Operation DOWNFALL and the Invasion of Japan, 1945 - 1947, Naval Institute Press, Annapolis, MD, USA.
Allen TB & Polmar N: (1995) Codename DOWNFALL, The Secret Plan To Invade Japan - And Why Truman Dropped The Bomb, Simon and Shuster, New York, USA.
Zaloga SJ: (2010) Defense Of Japan 1945, Osprey, Oxford, UK.
I think it's somewhat disingenuous introducing the topic of the US nuclear attacks on Japan and Trumans reasons for doing so into this discussion because the Japanese culture and situation at the time were unique. There is nothing to suggest that either Russia or Ukraine have the same fatalistic, fanatical, and cultural beliefs that the Japanese did in 1945.
The Ukrainians will, and have been, fighting harder and have more of reason to do so than the Russians. The Ukrainians are fighting for their continued cultural, political and physical existence against an enemy who wants to eradicate them. What is your average Russian soldier fighting for? What political or cultural belief exists that unites them? If you want to compare the Russians in this war to the Americans, then look no further than the Vietnam War of the 1960s - 70s. It had little public support in the US by 1968, with many Americans turning against it. The official govt line that it was to protect the free world from the evils of communism no longer held sway and unlike WW2 in both the US and Russia both wars aren't existential threats to either Russia or the US.
Neither country was responding to an attack on its homeland by a foreign aggressor. In the Russian case, no matter how much Putin claims that his war on Ukraine equates to the Great Patriotic War of 1941 - 45, it doesn't ring true with modern Russia. In the case of the Vietnam War the US wasn't attacked by a foreign aggressor, hence the general publics response wasn't anywhere near the same as it was after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour on 7/12/1941.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Colonelcassad
Take this from Colonel Cassad telegram. Russian says that both Minsk and Rostov-on-Don will be restore soon. However when the Russian telegrams shown 'doubt' (at least the way I see it) about conditions on Minsk, guess it is their way acknowledge that Minsk conditions is quite severe.
I do suspect they will restore Rostov-on-Don but quietly will discard Minsk. Kilo is more valuable anyway then Rapuchka Landing Ship. With Russian yards also churning new generation of amphibious assets, restoring old Rapuchka class perhaps not going to be in priority. The priority I suspect is more to restore the condition of those docks.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #8,567
I agree with the rest of the post but wanted to address these portions. There is no evidence that Russia wants to culturally, politically or physically eradicate all Ukrainians. This is pure propaganda and has been debunked several times. Plenty of Ukrainians live in Russia to this day. Nobody is banning Ukrainian as a language for publications, and Ukrainian language is still taught and spoken in Russia. Given how close culturally Russia and Ukraine are, I'm not sure what cultural eradication means to you. They will ban salo and gorilka? Unlikely. They will ban Taras Shevchenko? Well... one of these two countries has been banning books quite actively for the past ~9 years. It's not the one you'd think though. Physically eradicate Ukrainians? This is propaganda nonsense. There is 0 evidence of a Russian plan to physically eradicate Ukrainians as an ethnicity or a nationality.
They're fighting for some form of nationalist identity. This is what has emerged. It's actually shockingly logical. Russia is a capitalist nation-state, engaged in a nationalist struggle for
Except... Vietnam was far away, completely foreign, and had no historic, cultural or emotional attachments for the average American. I think France's war in Algeria would be a better comparison in that regard.
Sort of true. Except, since '14 Russia and Ukraine are in active dispute over the fate of Crimea, which Ukraine now claims it will retake. While there are Russians who don't think Crimea should belong to Russia, they are firmly in the minority. There's also the question of what the population of the LDNR territories wants. I suspect for them the "great patriotic war" is against Ukrainian nationalists. There's a language barrier, but I would encourage you to explore some Donetsk or Lugansk forums online and see what people's attitudes and opinions are. They don't necessarily like Putin. To them he's often a bastard, but their bastard that might need to be dealt with at some point. Meanwhile Ukraine is just "the enemy".
tom_damage
New Member
Quite a lot actually.
For whatever reason you seem to be implying that UA is "just a country" next to Russia.
Well, the two peoples were intertwined during their history. They both descend from the Kievan Rus. The territory of Ukraine (nomen est omen itself) became a subject of the Russian Empire not long after the Golden Horde disappeared. They both speak the same language (Ukrainian language is a relatively recent "innovation" and it was mostly the invention of the turbo-nationalist Ukrainians in/around Lvov).
The two countries remained very close even after the breakup of the USSR. A lot of families, businesses have roots deep in both countries.
All in all, it's not just another country for Russia.
Apart from all that, having UA remain in the sphere of influence of Russia is very much defendable from the Russian POV.
Without turning to the usual talking points of Putin, let me just shed some light on another aspect, which is relatively seldom addressed: Given the fact that the majority of ukrainians are culturally/genetically very close to Russians, and the absolutely tangible progress how UA was becoming an American puppet state, how hard would it be for the USA to use Ukraine as their training ground where "agents of change" can be trained, with practically unlimited resources (30+ million population)? There are already examples of this, from UA and from other ex-soviet states. If UA would have switched to full USA-backed mode, that would have become the beginning of the end for Russia. It would have become something like East and West Germany had back in the Cold War.
Unfortunately for Ukrainians, their politicians were always cheap and USA became the highest bidder.
Absolutely no parallels can be drawn between Vietnam and the current conflict.
As mentioned above, this is happenning on (current) Russia's porch, which used to be their territory (not the USSR's!).
Vietnam had nothing to do with the US, ever.
Petr Tolstoy, deputy speaker of Russian parliament: the war will probably last for 2-3 more years. Ukraine must pay for its desire not to be with Russia. He says he doesn't care if anything is left of Ukraine after the war.
There are also stories like this: 'Kill Everyone': Russian Violence in Ukraine Was Strategic | FRONTLINE (pbs.org)
The rapucha looks rather hollowed out, I can't make out much on the sub with it being so dark.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #8,571
Nothing is pretty about an authoritarian oligarchy floundering in search for some sort of ideological platform to wage the war on. If you try can find some very ugly public statements, probably worse then this. Russian leadership is what it is. This is not news. And warcrimes have been well documented. None of this speaks to the specifics from above. War criminals should be prosecuted to the fullest, on both sides of the conflict.
I don't think Russian yards are churning out a new generation of amphibious assets. Two new 11711 ships have been built of which one is still not fully operational. Now that project line is cancelled and two new types of landing ships are under construction. When they get built, pass trials, and enter some sort of serial production we can say. But until then, that's not really the case.
rsemmes
Member
We are talking about why (atomic bombs), not if (invasion). That would be off topic too.
We agree to disagree. You have links I have links, one of them USSBS.
"...they most likely saved many millions of allied and Japanese lives, especially Japanese civilians." I strongly disagree with that, they were burning them alive. Neither Japanese nor Vietnamese lives were ever a consideration.
I didn't bring Japan here, you should remind that to someone else.
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Thank you for leaving no doubt where you stand. Shall we hear of tales of biolabs, nazis and Victoria Nuland now ?
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So where does all of this leave Kaliningrad?
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #8,575
Highly vulnerable? I'm sorry, I'm not sure I understand your question.
I believe there is some evidence of Russia forcing Ukrainian teachers to to teach their students in Ukraine Russian or a Russian curriculum
Russia to Make Children Learn About Ukraine War Justification: Report (businessinsider.com)
Russia's war in Ukraine threatens students daily and forces teachers to improvise (theconversation.com)
Ukraine war: Tortured for refusing to teach in Russian - BBC News
Moscow forcing teachers in occupied Ukraine to follow Russian curriculum | Ukraine | The Guardian
Russia to Make Children Learn About Ukraine War Justification: Report (businessinsider.com)
Russia's war in Ukraine threatens students daily and forces teachers to improvise (theconversation.com)
Ukraine war: Tortured for refusing to teach in Russian - BBC News
Moscow forcing teachers in occupied Ukraine to follow Russian curriculum | Ukraine | The Guardian
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Thanks for clarification on Russian amphibious assets program. Yes perhaps 'churning' bit ambitious term. Still the question is there, whether they will invest to rebuild older Ropuchka class vessel, or simply quietly discarding it.
Close up video on the condition of Minsk. In video seems the hull of the vessel still intact and damage more on superstructure. Still even the assesment most of damages in superstructure, have to be seen whether Russia want to invest on rebuilt it.
On other hand seems the dock only suffering some superficial cluttering side damage. The docks conditions I believe is more important for Russian.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #8,578
This would not surprise me one bit on the whole. Russia has annexed the territory. Of course they will change the curriculum. It would make 0 sense to annex a territory and continue to teach school based on a Ukrainian curriculum. By that logic if the US uses a US curriculum in schools it's trying to eradicate the cultures of immigrants who arrive. That's simply not how that works.
I think we need a little more information to determine the state of the dock. In a way whether Russia decides to rebuild this ship or not will be a good indicator of how confident Russian leadership is in the replacement program.
Sandhi Yudha
Well-Known Member
Yes the Minsk (127) is already 40 years old, and the superstructure looks quite damaged. Repair will be expensive, but it can be cost effective and a faster way to get more active amphibious transport ships than waiting for the new amphibious ships under construction.
This is also the chance to modernize the Minsk and other Projects 775s and add some better radars and CIWS on it.
On the shipyard strike, regardless of the actual current condition of either asset, there's nothing, barring a shortage of munitions, to stop a further attack. And it does tickle me to think of an SU-24 flying around with a submarine kill marker on it.
The strike demonstrates reach and tends to indicate that the Ukrainians are integrating western delivered assets quite well.
The strike demonstrates reach and tends to indicate that the Ukrainians are integrating western delivered assets quite well.