The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

A second S-300 battery was destroyed in Nikolaev region this time by a Kh-35U strike. Note this is the second such system, and in the area we've seem Ukrainian Skyguard Aspide, IRIS-T, and other systems get hit. It appears Ukraine forward deployed a considerable force of SAMs to try and restrict Russian air operations. This meshes with recent Russian reports of Ukrainian Su-27s flying their own SEAD missions with HARMs. It's likely Russia is trying to break Ukraine's air defense umbrella in time to utilize it's aircraft to both protect friendly assets from strikes, and continue gliding bomb strikes from closer distances.

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Рубрика от Ледка

Сборный пост 5Н63С - уничтожена; 5П85С - 2 ед. уничтожены Северо-восточнее с. Зеленый Гай в Жовтневом районе Николаевской области. Геопривязка: (46.960710, 32.256900) Уничтожение позиционного района комплекса С-300ПС ракетами Х-35 в районе 16:00 23 августа. Источник ID LostArmour ; №2 ; №3

t.me

Moscow calling

Уничтожение украинской батареи ЗРК С-300ПС в районе н.п. Зеленый Гай Николаевской области. По утверждению "военкоров", поражение цели осуществлялось противокорабельными ракетами Х-35 "Уран" с бортов Су-34. Вероятно, речь идёт о модификации Х-35У обр. 2009 г., оснащённую системой спутниковой...

t.me

Репортёр Руденко V

В районе 16.00 двумя самолетами СУ-34 четырьмя ракетами Х-35 в 12 км северо-восточнее г Николаев были уничтожены 2 пусковые установки С-300, а также РЛС и пункт боевого управления. Недолго хохлы радовались по поводу нашего подбитого ПВО, пришла жесткая ответочка. Это только на моей памяти, за...

t.me

Рыбарь

Ну а пока в российском сегменте Интернета обсуждают крушение бизнес-джета Евгения Пригожина, в зоне СВО вовсю продолжается боевая работа. На канале военкора Андрея Руденко появились кадры уничтожения батареи украинского ЗРК С-300. Она находилась в районе населенного пункта Зеленый Гай к востоку...

t.me

An Su-25 was downed in Kherson region. It's very unclear whose, since both sides are claiming the other side lost one.

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженная техника ВСУ на Запорожском направлении. видео: @za_froht

t.me

Moscow calling

Сообщают, что в районе Работино сбили штурмовик Су-25 ВКС РФ. Судьба лётчика неизвестна. Судя по тому, что РФ задействует штурмовую авиацию для непосредственных ударов по передовым позициям ВСУ, обстановка в Работино жаркая...

t.me

Russian TOS and Smerch fires in Zaporozhye.

Colonelcassad

ТОС «Солнцепек» уничтожает скопление сил противника на Запорожском направлении. @rusich_army

t.me

Colonelcassad

Российские РСЗО 9К58 «Смерч» в Запорожской области применяющие новые типы боеприпасов с повышенными характеристиками дальности, точности и огневой мощи не оставят шансов на выживание ни украинским националистам, ни иностранным наемникам, решившим подзаработать на страданиях мирного населения. В...

t.me

Other interesting tidbits.

Allegedly a T-62M in Ukrainian services knocked out by a Russian volunteer btln. On the one hand this is possible. On the other hand I'm suspicious. Russian volutneer btlns are the likeliest candidates for receiving T-62s, and could very well be trying to pass off one of their own damaged tanks as a Ukrainian one.

Рубрика от Ледка

Т-62М [трофей] - уничтожен В Донецкой области. Подбитый бойцами батальона» Восток» танк ВСУ. Источник ID LostArmour

t.me

Another failed Russian attack at Spornoe. Russia lost an MBT, 7 BMPs, and a MT-LB that was apparently being used as a VBIED.

Moscow calling

Российская атака под Спорным 23.07.2023 г., итого потеряно - 7 БМП-1/2 (1 БМП-1 в качестве камикадзе), 1 МТ-ЛБ (в качестве камикадзе), и минимум 5 Т-80БВ.

t.me

A Ukrainian CV90 destroyed west of Bakhmut. Note earlier they were fighting near Kremennaya.

Рубрика от Ледка

CV9040C - уничтожена Восточнее с. Богдановка в Бахмутском районе Донецкой области. Геопривязка: (48.616220, 37.920440) Расчет БпЛА Ланцет из состава 98-й гв. ВДД успешно поразил шведскую БМП. Источник #Ланцет

t.me

A Russian long range radar and EW systems were hit in Zhelezniy Port, Kherson region.

Moscow calling

Ударом HIMARS поражены две единицы техники ВС РФ в н.п. Железный Порт Херсонской области: - Загоризонтную РЛС "Предел-Е" (46.121916, 32.269301); - РЭБ "Леер-2" (46.131973, 32.226947).

t.me

Apparently a Caesar howitzer hit by counter-battery fire. Location unclear.

Z комитет + карта СВО

☄#артиллерия Уничтожение в результате контрбатарейной борьбы французской 155-мм САУ CAESAR. Карта Поддержать Почта ✉️"Z-комитет"

t.me

In the recent attack on a Russian airfield, a Tu-22M3 was destroyed.

Moscow calling

Сообщают, что это - последствия вчерашней атаки аэродрома Сольцы в Новгородской области, где базировались Ту-22М3. Впрочем, официального подтверждения данной информации нет (да и не будет). UPD FighterBomber косвенно подтвердил.

t.me

A Ukrainian Casear howitzer hit, north of Ugledar. Note this is the third confirmed hit Caesar. They still have a better track record then nearly everything else Ukraine fields in terms of artillery. However Russian loitering munitions have proliferated at a rate that makes them hard to avoid.

Рубрика от Ледка

CAESAR - уничтожен Южнее с. Веселый Гай в Покровском районе Донецкой области. Геопривязка LA: (47.885370, 37.252950) Расчет БпЛА Ланцет из неназванного подразделения СпН группировки «V» успешно поразил САУ ВСУ. Источник #Ланцет

t.me

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Colonelcassad

Уничтожение французской САУ "Цезарь" ударом барражирующего боеприпаса «Ланцет» @voin_dv

t.me

Moscow calling

Уничтожение французской колёсной 155-мм САУ CAESAR с помощью БПЛА "Ланцет" на Южно-Донецком направлении. До сих пор "Ланцеты" - единственное успешное средство контрбатарейной борьбы на вооружении ВС РФ, впрочем, объективно уступающее HIMARS в эффективности.

t.me

Russia has parked barges likely with netting between them near the Crimean bridge.

Moscow calling

Опубликованы спутниковые снимки сервиса Planet.com барж к югу от Крымского моста. Судя по всему, баржи не затоплены, а закреплены якорями, а между них, скорее всего, натянуты боновые заграждения против украинских морских беспилотников.

t.me

Bofors L70 in Ukrainian hands. They got 36 of these antiquated AAA from the Baltics. In the current realities they are likely to work well against Shahed munitions in the rear.

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Moscow calling

"ЗУшка" на максималках - 40-мм шведская зенитная пушка Bofors L70, переданная Латвией ВСУ. Создана пушка в конце 1940-х на базе пушки времён Второй мировой войны Bofors L60, которая, по иронии, активно применялась обеими сторонами, ибо до начало войны хитрые шведы заключили лицензионные...

t.me

Older Kub SAMs, from Eastern Europe, have shown up in Ukraine. They are compatible with the newer Buks, and similar in design but less capable. Like ex-Jordanian older Strela variants these systems are easy to induct and offer some capability, while clearly being subpar.

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Colonelcassad

Первое фотоподтверждение передачи Украине чешских ЗРК 2K12M2 «Куб-М». @new_militarycolumnist

t.me

High quality metal decoys in Ukrainian service. Note these will be virtually indistinguishable on UAV footage. Likely the only confirmation that a real target is being struck is either seeing the system operating, or seeing the secondary detonations from munitions.

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Moscow calling

Ловушка для "Ланцета" - металлические макеты западных радаров и гаубиц М777, изготовленные на украинских заводах Метинвеста. Сообщается, что в ВСУ передали больше 250 штук.

t.me

A Russian towed lancet launcher, offering faster set up, and better mobility. Note a Ukrainian UAV spots it, but it escapes.

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[KipPotapych]

@KipPotapych It's not about what sources you or I personally find reliable, but what the Defence Professional community find reliable. I have sources about some things but they sure aren't what I call reliable. Some of the sources that have have seen cited are less reliable and authorative than the old Battler Britain or Commando war comics. I am not joking.​

"What is a reputable and, most importantly, verifiable source in this case? Which one can be considered to be such making claims about the Russian “human wave” attacks?"​

There is plenty of evidence to substantiate claims of Russian human wave attacks. You just have to look at the Wagner assaults on Bakhmut as an example. Next point on this, if the Russians were not subjecting their troops to human wave attacks, then why have they been deploying blocking forces to fire on Russian troops who try to retreat?

"Is Ben Hodges reliable? Other retired Generals? UK MoD? According to a mix of those, Russians were completely demoralized fighting with shovels last fall/winter and had no food or proper clothing and equipment and should be back to Russia now, if not further, because of ingenuity of the Ukrainian General Staff, as well the Ukrainian soldiers being morally prepared, properly equipped and trained (funny enough, I am not even exaggerating here for the most part and the tweets and articles in various outlets by the people mentioned above reflect just that)."​

Are you seriously disparaging and calling into disrepute the professional abilities and qualifications of those senior officers? Are you really serious? They have forgotten more about military thinking and life than you will ever know. Yes I disparage the senior Russian military leadership, but then I do have a copy of their Operational Doctrine and Tactics, which I have read. They didn't follow that. Go read it for yourself.

You are NOT a SME and are ONLY an enthusiast who apparently does not have a formal military education. You have a anti western pro Russian bias and that shows. In a free world you and everyone else are entitled to your opinions, BUT on here your opinion is TO BE INFORMED, by reputable verifiable sources. That's in the rules by the way. I know that we all make mistakes: I have been stood corrected on here more than once, most recently by @Feanor and that's how it should be.

Was debating whether I should reply at all because this post gives quite a rude vibe. Also, I do not see any substance I really should concern myself with. “Personal attack” I don’t really care for. So not sure what to say, but I will try. Maybe you should reread my previous post (I maybe should as well).

You said:

When those posters respond to validity challenges they generally cite social media claims and some other sources that are not reputable and / or verifiable.

And:

Reputable, verifiable sources should be the only ones cited without posters providing a validity declaration.

To which I asked:

What is a reputable and, most importantly, verifiable source in this case? Which one can be considered to be such making claims about the Russian “human wave” attacks?

I then outlined in great detail what my opinion on the subject is, why it is such, and provided numerous examples. That somehow resulted in you questioning my intellect and in pretty straight terms suggesting that I have no idea what I am talking about, even referencing the rules? I am going to pass on commenting on this bit.

No, I do not find Ben Hodges to be a reliable member of the “Defence Professional Community” in this particular case. Can you provide any reason I should? At no point have I questioned his credentials, knowledge, or experience. However, I do not trust him with his “analysis” in this case. Why? Well, that’s pretty simple, actually: his analysis is optimistic to the point that it borders if not crosses to the propaganda territory. For example:

Ben Hodges, who served as commanding general of the United States Army Europe until 2018, told The Times that Russian lines are collapsing.

"Based on all the things we are seeing it has the feeling of a collapse, at least in the Donbas area, and I do believe the Russians will be pushed beyond the February 23 line by the end of the year," with the "line" being the position the Russians were in pre-invasion.

A senior British government source echoed this assessment, according to The Times, and said Putin's forces would be forced out of the Donbas and back across Russia's border by the end of the year.

That was in October 2022. He also said that he thinks that the Russian Army has been defeated. Almost like reading Ukrainian Douglas Macgregor, isn’t it (I don’t read Douglas Macgregor, just for the record)? Now let’s fast forward three months to January 2023.

Yeah, obviously, I was overly optimistic about that because I did not anticipate that we would have failed to provide longer-range systems, like ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems). I thought that was coming. So, that's been a shortcoming.

I also did not anticipate the amount of forces that Russia was willing to sacrifice in and around Bakhmut. I mean, obviously, I was off -- not by much, but I was off.

According to him, he was off. But, hey, not by much. Right? I should, however, take him at his word because I will never know nearly as much as he has forgotten about military thinking and life and I cannot form my own informed opinion because I am just an enthusiast and apparently do not have any formal military training. Hey, he said that UA will take Crimea by the end of summer, so I will cross my fingers.

Now seriously, without sarcasm. His opinion maybe valid, maybe not, I don’t care what anyone thinks on the subject, really. I have never seen him being quoted by anyone whose opinion I trust or even “semitrust” (I don’t have any references to this word ever being used previously). Personally, I move on more often than not when I see his name because I am usually interested in substance and some sense of reality of the situation and he does not appear to be providing either, in my “uninformed” opinion. I do realize that reading his assessments and predictions is like a sweet song to a biased ear, but I am not interested in that. And I know a few people here like referencing his tweets and that is fine too.

UK MoD? Well, we have been through this several times I believe, so I’ll only cite one of my old posts on the subject:

While this is true, the UK MoD quite heavily implies that the shovel defines the Russian capabilities, as well as the mindset dating back to 19th century. You mentioned before that they are a reliable and valuable source (sorry, I somehow skipped that post earlier). For some things, perhaps. Their Twitter, however, with these little updates, is not. Frankly, many of their posts are simply propaganda, often being an echo chambers for the MoD of Ukraine. Consider the shovel post, for example. Pure propaganda. They even casually mention that

One of the reservists described being ‘neither physically nor psychologically’ prepared for the action.

Common… Seriously? Not just propaganda, but also a poorly constructed one. It looks like they are basically aiming at the “masses” and they succeed most of the time because, in this case, for example, I saw at least a dozen of articles at various sources/media outlets (some are among the most reliable) picking up the “shovel bit” - ie, the Russians are sent to battle armed with shovels - and quoting that very tweet. Fyi, this (and the linked Telegram channel) is the source for the shovel tweet, as it is word for word summary of what has been said (in Russian) in the original: Мобилизованные из Серпухова рассказали, что их отправили на провальный штурм со стрелковым оружием и лопатами

In other words, in the case outlined above, the UK MoD is simply translating some questionable Russian (in Russian, but not necessarily Russian?) outlet that is referencing some questionable Telegram channel for their “expert assessment” of the situation, then draw questionable “conclusion”, send it out to the wild and… Google “Russia shovel Ukraine” and look through the results and headlines in the like of “Russians are forced to fight with shovels”; spoiler alert, there are pages and pages of articles on the subject all referencing the MoD’s tweet as one that does not need verification because, to paraphrase one of the AP editors quoted in my previous post: “I can’t imagine a British intelligence official would be wrong on this.” Reliable? Actually, intentionally predatory, in my uninformed opinion.

Not sure who else I mentioned in my post there to draw such a reaction from you, but that is my thinking on Hodges and the UK MoD.

So to come back to your statement in regards to providing reputable and verifiable sources. Next time the UK MoD posts a tweet, should it be accompanied by a validity declaration if posted here? And, while on the subject, I would like to see a source for the deployment of blocking forces. I did read about it before but I have never seen a reputable or verifiable source referenced anywhere, but a questionable Telegram video by allegedly Russian soldiers talking about it and unsubstantiated claims by the Ukrainian authorities. Should we refer in a similar manner to claims by the Russian authorities and allegedly Ukrainian soldiers recording videos addressed to Zelensky and “the world”? Well, no, that’d be dumb.

 

[KipPotapych]

Some things didn’t fit:

To sum up, I am not mentally challenged and have enough mental capacity and education (as well as genuine desire) to have an opinion that is based on reality and, to the best of my abilities, try to avoid posting something I lack understanding in. Apparently, what you perceive about me collides with your biased view and it shows. I believe I provide substance, reasoning, as well as factual proof, or at least some reasonable reference explaining my thoughts, in my posts and do not reference rubbish social media or otherwise questionable sources. The only post that comes to mind at the moment is a recent one about an alleged drone attack on Crimea and that was followed by “if true” accompanied by my thoughts on the matter. You are welcome to point out “the holes” in any of my posts or something you disagree with and have a constructive discussion, which is what I am here for. I am not exactly interested in baseless personal attacks because it reflects badly on the accuser and forum as a whole. If you think I am mistaken in my view or my posts, point out and explain why you think this is the case. We can have a constructive discussion and I would apologize if the need arises. If you really think that there is nothing to say, well…

Edit: Oh, and in regards to the “anti western pro Russian bias”, none of us are immune to influence. I love the country I live in. Love some and like other places in the western world I travelled to. There is hardly anything that could be offered to me as an incentive to move outside of this western world, regardless of what I thought of other places I have been fortunate to visit. However, I also understand that the world isn’t black and white, regardless of my residence and core believes. I am fine with my “bias” until proven otherwise.

Edit 2: To “deflate the tension” and insert some humour (well, I think it is funny):

Ben Hodges, a retired U.S. Army officer who served as commanding general in the United States Army Europe, predicted Russian forces might "collapse" before the end of the year, succumbing to the battle of attrition in Ukraine.

"Russia is being attrited at such a rate that they may collapse before the end of this year, assuming the West delivers in time what we've promised. War is a test of will and a test of logistics," Hodges tweeted in reference to an assessment by military expert Marcus M. Keupp, who leads the Department of Defense Economics at the Military Academy of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology.

That’d be from a Newsweeek article from March 17, 2023: Russia losing troops so fast, they may "collapse" by year's end: Ex-general

Since basically everything that was promised has been delivered and even more promised since (and some delivered), I will keep those fingered crossed, after all.

See, I am not hopeless, I scrolled through a few articles trying to be proven wrong in my assessment.

 

[KipPotapych]

I appreciate the post, @rsemmes.

I would argue that the Ukrainians are forced to conduct the war this way because they don't have enough of the required equipment, (western tanks etc.,) and lack air superiority over the battlefield through no fault of their own

Sorry, whose fault is it? They started out in a slightly better position than Poland when the Union collapsed, but had only marginal change to their output in the past 3+ decades:

Source is the first Google search result: File:Ukraine vs Poland GDP per capita ppp 1990-2017.png - Wikimedia Commons, but I can write a proper essay on the subject. Whose fault is it?

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Sorry, whose fault is it? They started out in a slightly better position than Poland when the Union collapsed, but had only marginal change to their output in the past 3+ decades:

Ukraine and Poland were not equal in terms of political independence though. Just because Russia gave these nations formal independence and withdrew its armed forces, doesn't mean the same applies to any politicians installed there in the years prior.
Replacement of said politicians with domestic, independent (of Russia) ones, is very much a function of the population's attitude toward Russia, as well as attitude toward western versus Russian values.
For many reasons, Poland was more antagonistic to Russia than Ukraine was.
I assume there may be an additional argument to be made about the influence of population transfers during the days of the USSR, but I admit that beyond hearing a few personal stories, I don't know much about it so I'll just leave it at that.

 

[Feanor]

Interesting and unfortunate occurrence; the author of the Moscow Calling telegram channel that I have often used as a source here has been arrested in Moscow. His real name is Andrei Kurshin and he and his parents had been the targets of threats in social media over his critical comments of Russian military performance. Note, he served in the LDNR forces during the initial war, and was working as an unnamed defense industry enterprise with a secret clearance. Reportedly one of the reasons (the other reasons are presumably activity intended to discredit the Russian Armed Forces, a new law that the government uses to go after people who actively post negative things about the Russian war effort from inside the country) for his arrest were complaints from two women that he was allegedly harassing and threatening online. If he really did do this, he certainly deserves to face justice, but losing him as a good source of information is unfortunate for anyone observing this war.

Ну что, допрыгался?

В лесу что-то сдохло и сегодня в Москве задержали Куршина, который вел телеграм-каналам Moscow Calling или как его еще называли ЦИПСО Calling. Жалобы в ФСБ с требованием арестовать и посадить Куршина были еще осенью прошлого года, но система особо не чесалась по этому поводу, но наконец-то дозрела.…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

 

[KipPotapych]

Interesting and unfortunate occurrence; the author of the Moscow Calling telegram channel that I have often used as a source here has been arrested in Moscow. His real name is Andrei Kurshin and he and his parents had been the targets of threats in social media over his critical comments of Russian military performance. Note, he served in the LDNR forces during the initial war, and was working as an unnamed defense industry enterprise with a secret clearance. Reportedly one of the reasons (the other reasons are presumably activity intended to discredit the Russian Armed Forces, a new law that the government uses to go after people who actively post negative things about the Russian war effort from inside the country) for his arrest were complaints from two women that he was allegedly harassing and threatening online. If he really did do this, he certainly deserves to face justice, but losing him as a good source of information is unfortunate for anyone observing this war.

Ну что, допрыгался?

В лесу что-то сдохло и сегодня в Москве задержали Куршина, который вел телеграм-каналам Moscow Calling или как его еще называли ЦИПСО Calling. Жалобы в ФСБ с требованием арестовать и посадить Куршина были еще осенью прошлого года, но система особо не чесалась по этому поводу, но наконец-то дозрела.…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Well, that is unfortunate. I agree, his channel is (was?) pretty great.

 

[John Fedup]

Interesting and unfortunate occurrence; the author of the Moscow Calling telegram channel that I have often used as a source here has been arrested in Moscow. His real name is Andrei Kurshin and he and his parents had been the targets of threats in social media over his critical comments of Russian military performance. Note, he served in the LDNR forces during the initial war, and was working as an unnamed defense industry enterprise with a secret clearance. Reportedly one of the reasons (the other reasons are presumably activity intended to discredit the Russian Armed Forces, a new law that the government uses to go after people who actively post negative things about the Russian war effort from inside the country) for his arrest were complaints from two women that he was allegedly harassing and threatening online. If he really did do this, he certainly deserves to face justice, but losing him as a good source of information is unfortunate for anyone observing this war.

Ну что, допрыгался?

В лесу что-то сдохло и сегодня в Москве задержали Куршина, который вел телеграм-каналам Moscow Calling или как его еще называли ЦИПСО Calling. Жалобы в ФСБ с требованием арестовать и посадить Куршина были еще осенью прошлого года, но система особо не чесалась по этому поводу, но наконец-то дозрела.…

colonelcassad.livejournal.com

Well my first question would be who are these two women who the state seems to welcome their complaints?

 

[Feanor]

Just some interesting stats from LostArmour.

Russian FPV drone usage is growing at a crazy rate.

May - 62
June - 92
July - 123
August - 229

Применение FPV-дронов российскими войсками

lostarmour.info

For comparison Lancet loitering munitions rates;

May - 62
June - 55
July - 135
August - 124

Применение барражирующих боеприпасов "Ланцет" в зоне СВО

lostarmour.info

These munitions are changing the nature of combat. We saw loitering munitions used by Azeri forces devastate the Karabakh separatists, and their Armenian allies. It was then widely predicted that in a larger war they would be too expensive and too few. Initially this proved correct. Russian forces trying to advance into Kiev used loitering munitions, a few of them. But they were far too few to make a real difference. However as the conflict has dragged on they have become far more widespread. FPV drones, the baby brother of the loitering munition has rapidly outpaced the loitering munition on the battlefield, due to being cheaper. While they have drastically less range and are vulnerable to EW, they are still very cheap and effective when they land. The question of their future remains open, but things like this are likely to be part of it;

Colonelcassad

Макет пусковой установки для БПЛА-камикадзе "Ланцет" в модификации "изделие 53" на базе бронеавтомобиля "КамАЗ 5350". На данной машине имеется 16 транспортно-пусковых контейнеров для запуска беспилотников. Также обращает на себя внимание наличие двух мест управления БПЛА. Это даёт возможность...

t.me

Their exact place in the ORBAT remains unclear, but at least at the brigade-rgt level, with FPV drones at the btln level. They don't make infantry obsolete, but until there is an effective way to deal with them, large mechanized formations will be increasingly vulnerable. And in recent trends groups of infantry as small as two people were getting hit by FPV drones. They could fly into entrenched positions, into the doors of garages where vehicles are hiding, and into structure if the door happens to be open. If it doesn't, the first drone can be used to remove the door and the second to get inside. If they ever escalate from hundreds to thousands of strikes per month, quantity may take on a quality of its own.

 

[T.C.P]

Just some interesting stats from LostArmour.

Russian FPV drone usage is growing at a crazy rate.

May - 62
June - 92
July - 123
August - 229

Применение FPV-дронов российскими войсками

lostarmour.info

For comparison Lancet loitering munitions rates;

May - 62
June - 55
July - 135
August - 124

Применение барражирующих боеприпасов "Ланцет" в зоне СВО

lostarmour.info

These munitions are changing the nature of combat. We saw loitering munitions used by Azeri forces devastate the Karabakh separatists, and their Armenian allies. It was then widely predicted that in a larger war they would be too expensive and too few. Initially this proved correct. Russian forces trying to advance into Kiev used loitering munitions, a few of them. But they were far too few to make a real difference. However as the conflict has dragged on they have become far more widespread. FPV drones, the baby brother of the loitering munition has rapidly outpaced the loitering munition on the battlefield, due to being cheaper. While they have drastically less range and are vulnerable to EW, they are still very cheap and effective when they land. The question of their future remains open, but things like this are likely to be part of it;

Colonelcassad

Макет пусковой установки для БПЛА-камикадзе "Ланцет" в модификации "изделие 53" на базе бронеавтомобиля "КамАЗ 5350". На данной машине имеется 16 транспортно-пусковых контейнеров для запуска беспилотников. Также обращает на себя внимание наличие двух мест управления БПЛА. Это даёт возможность...

t.me

Their exact place in the ORBAT remains unclear, but at least at the brigade-rgt level, with FPV drones at the btln level. They don't make infantry obsolete, but until there is an effective way to deal with them, large mechanized formations will be increasingly vulnerable. And in recent trends groups of infantry as small as two people were getting hit by FPV drones. They could fly into entrenched positions, into the doors of garages where vehicles are hiding, and into structure if the door happens to be open. If it doesn't, the first drone can be used to remove the door and the second to get inside. If they ever escalate from hundreds to thousands of strikes per month, quantity may take on a quality of its own.

At first the FPV drones had tiny explosives and were only good for disabling and damaging irregular infrantry vehicles (civvie trucks). Then we started getting videos fo them taking out tanks and man that was impressive. I have seen some of these FPVs do more damage than lancets.

But recently one of the Russian commanders complained about their usage. He said ti used up his best drone pilots and due to the short range of these drones, eh had to get his best drone pilots near to the action and it was leading to higher casualty rates for first rate operators.

There is a Russian unit Beaver. Their FPV videos are the best of the Russian related FPV content.

 

[ngatimozart]

What rank do you need to be "reliable"? If two generals provide two different points of view, not for the first time in history, which one is reliable? Was he giving his biased opinion or a cold, accurate analysis?, I haven't been talking to him.

Von Manstein was right every single time?, because of his rank? J. F. C. Fuller too?

A general (what about a lieutenant) has, certainly, a qualified opinion, that does not mean he is right; even if he were to be sincere.

"To substantiate claims" Yourself, you are using the word "claim".

"Calling into disrepute", I don't think @KipPotapych was doing that. Myself, I am not going to accept something as true because a general, or a duke, says so.

I use the word "claim" in the context that it is something that hasn't been verified. It is being specific in what I am saying. If something has been verified then I use different language which is more assertive. This is one of the nuances of the English language and my attempting to be precise.

"Why have they been deploying blocking forces to fire on Russian troops who try to retreat?" I have not seen those orders in writing, nor the transcript of that transmission. Are they available? I am sure Feonor can get us a reliable translation.

There are plenty of references from both Russian and non Russian sources of the blocking battalion orders. Go look at what some of the people on Telegram say about it. There are also more formal sources as well.

We shouldn't take the words of a generalwith a pinch of salt?

And, in my opinion, your reply to him looks a bit ad hominen.

There are good generals and there are bad generals; I can think of many. It's not about rank so much as their experience and education (i.e., advanced military education).

WRT your opinion to you have a military education, or have you read the works of notable strategies and tactics? Have you read the Sun Tsu Ping Fa or On War by von Clausewitz? What about analyses by various institutions such as RUSI, and various war colleges. Are you saying that you are better than those who have spent their lives learning the art of war? Your opinion doesn't matter much if it isn't substantiated by evidence.

The point I was making that Russia can't afford to put an artillery btln on line, even single batteries disperse. I used this as an example to illustrate why Ukraine may also have shifted to smaller attacks. They started out with larger attacks, those failed, and they pived to smaller attacks. They aren't the only ones. Russian larger mechanized attacks have also been unsuccessful. But smaller units attacking strong point by strong point have allowed for gains over time (see the Oskol front).

WRT the arty that may be so, but what I believe are the reasons for the high use of much smaller unit action is purely the inability to manoeuvre large forces safely in the rear and towards the front because of the innumerable eyes in the sky. The advent of drones on and near the battlefield has created a sea change. Another reason is the massive use of mines which can funnel assaults into kill zones.

Interesting and unfortunate occurrence; the author of the Moscow Calling telegram channel that I have often used as a source here has been arrested in Moscow. His real name is Andrei Kurshin and he and his parents had been the targets of threats in social media over his critical comments of Russian military performance. Note, he served in the LDNR forces during the initial war, and was working as an unnamed defense industry enterprise with a secret clearance. Reportedly one of the reasons (the other reasons are presumably activity intended to discredit the Russian Armed Forces, a new law that the government uses to go after people who actively post negative things about the Russian war effort from inside the country) for his arrest were complaints from two women that he was allegedly harassing and threatening online. If he really did do this, he certainly deserves to face justice, but losing him as a good source of information is unfortunate for anyone observing this war.

Well, jumped?

I saw this last night and it looks at the pro Kremlin influencers on various social media channels.

So if the BBC item is reasonably factual then is Andrei Kurshin a fringe influencer, or is he one who has had frequent access to the inner circle of the Russian political and military leaderships? If the former that's understandable, but if the latter then the other favored influencers may have to be more careful lest the FSB invite them in for a cup of tea and a talk.

I appreciate the post, @rsemmes

Sorry, whose fault is it? They started out in a slightly better position than Poland when the Union collapsed, but had only marginal change to their output in the past 3+ decades :

Source is the first Google search result : File: Ukraine vs Poland GDP per capita ppp 1990-2017.png - Wikimedia Commons, but I can write a proper essay on the subject. Whose fault is it?

Whose fault? Ukraine didn't telephone the Putin and say "please invade us because we haven't kept up our defense investments" did they? The Russian invasion of Ukraine starting in 2014 is an act of wanton aggression in breach of international law. Law which by the way Russia is a signatory too.

@KipPotapych
You know the rules about posting sources. Just posting a search term is totally unacceptable. This is an official warning. Do it again and the Moderators will take action against you.

 

[ngatimozart]

Some updates.
28/8/23.
Ukrainian officials formally acknowledged that Ukrainian forces liberated Robotyne amid continued Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut.

The Russian military command continues to expand relatively elite Russian airborne forces by deploying these troops to defend vulnerable positions against Ukrainian counteroffensives.

A Ukrainian intelligence official indicated that Russian forces may have marginally replenished their stocks of high-precision missiles through conservation in the summer of 2023.

Ukrainian officials stated that Russian forces may intend to resume a wider campaign against Ukrainian critical infrastructure in the fall of 2023, but assessed Russia likely has not replenished its missile stocks to sustain a campaign on the scale of the winter 2022-2023 strikes.

Ukrainian officials assessed that any upcoming Russian strike campaign may employ new tactics that use fewer missiles and more drones.

Russian milbloggers continued to criticize the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for ignoring ultranationalists ’complaints over the mistreatment of a Southern Military District (SMD) brigade operating in the Kherson direction.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations on the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Donetsk, and did not make any confirmed advances.

Russian lawmakers and the Russian information space expressed varied opinions about a proposed Russian State Duma bill that would deprive individuals of their acquired Russian citizenship for evading military registration and mobilization.

The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on August 28 that partisans created an explosion at the barracks of a Chechen “Akhmat-1” Rosgvardia riot police (OMON) unit in Enerhodar in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian officials formally acknowledged that Ukrainian forces had liberated Robotyne amid continued Ukrainian advances in western Zaporizhia Oblast and near Bakhmut. Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Malyar reported on August 28 that Ukrainian

www.understandingwar.org

Aug 28: Nice. Ukrainians TRACK DOWN AND DEMOLISH A RUSSIAN COLUMN 申 War in Ukraine Explained Video.

29/8/23.
Ukrainian forces advanced near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 29.

Russian sources continued to express concerns over Russian vulnerabilities in eastern and western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and reported Wagner logistics and security head Valery Chekalov were buried on August 29 in St. Petersburg in separate cemeteries, likely to prevent the creation of a single pilgrimage site that would establish the deceased Wagner members as martyrs.

Russian milbloggers accused the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for the fifth consecutive day of attempting to conceal concerns over the mistreatment of a Southern Military District (SMD) brigade operating in occupied Kherson Oblast. These milblogger persistent complaints are likely an attempt to spark command changes that may favor Russian Airborne Forces Commander Colonel General Mikhail Teplinsky, who reportedly oversees Russian forces in southern Ukraine.

The Russian MoD may be reverting to more limited coverage of the war in Ukraine while attempting to censor complaints along the frontline and reports of Ukrainian advances.

The United States State Department announced a new military aid package for Ukraine on August 29.

The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported that the Kremlin is currently focused on promoting five main information operations against Ukraine, all of which ISW has observed.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border area but did not make confirmed advances.

The UK Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on August 29 that the Russian MoD is still unlikely to meet its targets for volunteer recruitment, despite offering incentives such as high salaries and additional social benefits.

Ukrainian sources reported that occupation authorities continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children from occupied Ukraine to Russia.

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces advanced near Bakhmut in Dontesk Oblast and Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 29. Geolocated footage published on August 29 indicates that Ukrainian forces advanced south of Bakhmut and about five kilometers southeast of

www.understandingwar.org

[ur = https: //youtu.be/yhOapQ0qNi0?si = hQhv3-GYKQa-8JNt] 29 Aug: NEW RECORD! Ukrainians Destroy DOZENS STRATEGIC AIRCRAFT OVERNIGHT. 申 War in Ukraine [/ url]. Video.

30/8/23.
Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed four Russian Il-76 planes during a drone strike on a Russian airfield in Pskov Oblast on the night of August 29 to 30.

Russian propagandists and milbloggers criticized Russian forces for their inability to defend Russian territory and military facilities, while simultaneously criticizing recent Russian MoD censorship efforts.

Russian forces conducted a large-scale missile and drone strike predominantly targeting Kyiv on the night of August 29-30, likely in retaliation for the Ukrainian strikes earlier on Moscow and Pskov oblasts.

Ukrainian light infantry - likely reconnaissance elements - infiltrated east of Russian field fortifications near Verbove as of August 30.

The Kremlin has reportedly taken several efforts to silence or confuse reports about Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s funeral, which likely indicates that the Kremlin remains worried about Prigozhin’s appeal in Russia and among Wagner forces even after his death.

Some Russian officials may be probing the views of milbloggers about Prigozhin and his death to identify and censor Russian ultranationalists not clearly connected with Prigozhin or Wagner.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov reiterated his loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin on August 30 in continued attempts to distance himself from Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, on the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 30 and reportedly advanced.

Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations along at least two sectors of the front on August 30 and advanced near Bakhmut, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is reportedly banning Wagner Group soldiers from fighting in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian Crimean-based “Atesh” partisan group claimed that its partisans successfully detonated an explosive at the campaign headquarters of the United Russia party in occupied Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast on August 29.

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed four Russian Il-76 planes during a drone strike on a Russian airfield in Pskov Oblast on the night of August 29 to 30. Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Representative Andriy Yusov stated that

www.understandingwar.org

UNBELIEVABLE! 30 Aug: Ukrainians BREACH 6 KM OF DEFENSES IN 1 DAY! 圣 War in Ukraine Explained Video.

31/8/23.
Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 31 and reportedly advanced in both sectors of the front.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted Ukraine’s domestic production of long-range missiles on August 31, likely as part of a coordinated Ukrainian campaign promoting increased Ukrainian strike capabilities against Russian deep rear areas.

Russian authorities arrested a notable fringe ultranationalist Russian milblogger on accusations of discrediting the Russian military, likely as part of centralized efforts to silence some critical milblogger voices without prompting a general backlash.

Russian military authorities allegedly ordered the detention of three Russian milbloggers who have recently criticized the Russian MoD - a move that sparked a backlash in only a small corner of the Russian information space.

Imprisoned Russian ultranationalist Igor Girkin and his associates conducted likely futile political maneuvers intended to coalesce into a coherent and meaningful political opposition group.

Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line and unsuccessfully counterattacked in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Obl.

Russian occupation authorities continue to forcibly deport Ukrainian children to Russia and Russify Ukrainian youth.

Institute for the Study of War

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 31 and reportedly advanced in both sectors of the front. The Ukrainian General Staff and Ukrainian Deputy Defense Minister

www.understandingwar.org

31 Aug: DOMINO EFFECT! Russian DEFENSE SHATTERED INTO PIECES 申 War in Ukraine Explained Video.

 

[ngatimozart]

Update cont.

1/9/23.
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence (GUR) Head Kyrylo Budanov reported that the Russian military deployed elements of a newly created “reserve army” (the 25th CAA) to enable units currently on the frontline in Luhansk Oblast to laterally redeploy to defend against the Ukrainian. The 25th Combined Arms Army is unlikely to be combat effective at scale given its rushed deployment, ahead of a previously reported intended deployment date of December 2023.

Additional Russian lateral redeployment and the immediate commitment of intended operational reserves suggest that short term reinforcement needs are impeding intended long-term reconstitution efforts.

Russian “Vostok” Battalion commander Alexander Khodakovsky continues to highlight the impact of the lack of Russian counter-battery capabilities on Russian morale in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area.

Ukrainian forces continued offensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made some advances on September 1.

Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make any confirmed.

Russian occupation officials announced on September 1 that voting began for the Russian regional elections held in occupied Ukraine and will continue in various forms through September 10.

Russian officials continue efforts to forcibly indoctrinate Ukrainian youth into Russian culture and identity by integrating schools in occupied Ukraine into the Russian educational system.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-septemberment-september-1-2023

Ukraine war: US sees 'notable progress' by Ukraine army in south

The US praise comes as Kyiv admits the fighting against strong Russian defensive lines is tough.

www.bbc.com

I am using both the ISW Updates and War in Ukraine Explained YouTube Channel as the sources because both ive their sources for their claims.

It appears that UKR has made advances in the Zaprohizia area and they may e through both the first and second Russian ines of defense near Robotyne. From what I have been able to discern, the Russian minefields were the density in the front of the first line of defense and less dense in between the first and second lines of defense.

 

[ngatimozart]

Update Cont.

Other items.
Videos on the impacts that western equipment and Ukrainian strategy, tactics and innovation is having on the war.

French Video claiming a serious Ukrainian breakthrough.

“Shut up!”: Ukraine's foreign minister snaps at critics of slow counter-offensive against Russia. Global News Video.
'Russia 10 Times More Powerful...': Ukraine Slams West's Criticism Of 'Too Slow' Counteroffensive Hindustan Times Video.

Ukraine tells critics of slow counteroffensive to 'shut up'

Ukraine told critics of the pace of its three-month-old counteroffensive to "shut up" on Thursday, the sharpest signal yet of Kyiv's frustration at leaks from Western officials who say its forces are advancing too slowly.

www.reuters.com

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1697333688441160065

This criticism of those I label armchair warriors in the west, is quite valid as far as I am concerned.

Another Russian supply depot [

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1697747277748576621

a RUD[/url] - Rapid Unplanned Demolition.

Orynx's latest lists of Russian and Ukrainian equipment losses.

Gen Ben Hodges's on [those suggesting that UKR give up territory to Russia. He is dead right; it's a stupid idea and rewards Russia for its unwanton aggression.

Claims that another Russian KA52 Alligator has been shot down. I wonder how many of these Russia has left.

UKR assault on Verbove

UKR tank crew recently finished US Army training on M1A1 tanks.

The Ukrainians are using drones fitted with thermal imagers to search foor Russian mines. Quite a nifty idea.

Video shows Ukraine using thermal imaging drones to try to locate mines left by Russia to kill and maim its soldiers

Ukraine is using thermal cameras mounted on drones to try to combat the dense minefields deployed by Russia, which have hampered its counteroffensive.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[KipPotapych]

@KipPotapych
You know the rules about posting sources. Just posting a search term is totally unacceptable. This is an official warning. Do it again and the Moderators will take action against you.

I am sorry, source for what? There is a source in my post you quoted, I believe (at least I can clearly see it and click it on my end). Not sure what the issue is.

 

[ngatimozart]

I am sorry, source for what? There is a source in my post you quoted, I believe (at least I can clearly see it and click it on my end). Not sure what the issue is.

You know exactly what I am saying so don't try being smart.

 

[KipPotapych]

You know exactly what I am saying so don't try being smart.

Not really. And I don’t believe I could be any more serious. I really don’t know what you are referring to, but would like to know so that there are no issues going forward. I am not trying to f around or give anyone hard time here, for the record.

 

[KipPotapych]

WRT your opinion to you have a military education, or have you read the works of notable strategies and tactics? Have you read the Sun Tsu Ping Fa or On War by von Clausewitz? What about analyses by various institutions such as RUSI, and various war colleges. Are you saying that you are better than those who have spent their lives learning the art of war? Your opinion doesn't matter much if it isn't substantiated by evidence.

Here is the thing. I don’t have formal military education. I have read some of what you are asking about, but nothing you particularly listed. However, I don’t claim to know much about it and don’t make aggravated claims about particular tactics or anything that is going on, really, without providing any kind of support or stating (which is extremely rare because that isn’t my thing) that this is my opinion only, which you can correct with your educated or expert comments, ignore, or do as you will. In fact, I asked about the tactics once or twice straight up and my posts went unanswered. In regards to RUSI, I have referred to their analysis a few times here. For example, here is one:

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Ukraine used MICLICs in Zaporozhye. The problem is that the minefields are too deep. They make an inroad, insert an armored taskforce with mineclearing vehicles, a pair of MBTs, and a platoon or two of mech infantry in vehicles for support, and have to move in a narrow column that then gets shot...

www.defencetalk.com

Here is another:

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

And the first terminator falls....

www.defencetalk.com

In case of the latter, I had to actually “defend” my post because there were objections due to some blogger (sorry, don’t recall the name) disagreeing with the article, here:

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

In a meeting in Brussels Zelenskyj asked Sweden to provide Gripen. The Swedish Prime Minister said no. The main reason is that Sweden see a real need for the Gripen planes for the defence of Sweden, in particular in the current situation where Erdogan and Orban are blocking Swedish NATO...

www.defencetalk.com

And so on.

I believe that some of the things discussed have nothing to do with the “art of war”. Otherwise, I believe, my opinion was always substantiated by the evidence that is publicly available. I think I will stop posting altogether for the time being because there is a pretty clear misunderstanding, conflict of opinions, or whatever it is.

Whose fault? Ukraine didn't telephone the Putin and say "please invade us because we haven't kept up our defense investments" did they? The Russian invasion of Ukraine starting in 2014 is an act of wanton aggression in breach of international law. Law which by the way Russia is a signatory too.

My understanding was that you were saying it was not their fault they are fighting without sufficient equipment and air superiority, which has nothing to do with whose fault the invasion was to begin with.

For the time being, I will refrain myself from posting anything at all.

Cheers.

 

[swerve]

In a meeting in Brussels Zelenskyj asked Sweden to provide Gripen. The Swedish Prime Minister said no. The main reason is that Sweden see a real need for the Gripen planes for the defence of Sweden, in particular in the current situation where Erdogan and Orban are blocking Swedish NATO membership. Zelenskyj vill ha Gripen – Sverige säger nej | SVT Nyheter

Now that Sweden's NATO membership is expected to be approved when the Turkish parliament next convenes (not until October, I've read), it could make sense to investigate the possibility of supplying any older Gripen that could be spared. They'd suit Ukraine's operating environment well.

The question is, where to get them from? If there are any stored, overhauling them for Ukraine seems a good idea. Those leased to Czechia will become available when Czechia starts getting F-35, but that won't happen tomorrow.

 

[rsemmes]

I use the word "claim" in the context that it is something that hasn't been verified. It is being specific in what I am saying. If something has been verified then I use different language which is more assertive. This is one of the nuances of the English language and my attempting to be precise.

There are plenty of references from both Russian and non Russian sources of the blocking battalion orders. Go look at what some of the people on Telegram say about it. There are also more formal sources as well.

There are good generals and there are bad generals; I can think of many. It's not about rank so much as their experience and education (i.e., advanced military education).

WRT your opinion to you have a military education, or have you read the works of notable strategies and tactics? Have you read the Sun Tsu Ping Fa or On War by von Clausewitz? What about analyses by various institutions such as RUSI, and various war colleges. Are you saying that you are better than those who have spent their lives learning the art of war? Your opinion doesn't matter much if it isn't substantiated by evidence.

WRT the arty that may be so, but what I believe are the reasons for the high use of much smaller unit action is purely the inability to manoeuvre large forces safely in the rear and towards the front because of the innumerable eyes in the sky. The advent of drones on and near the battlefield has created a sea change. Another reason is the massive use of mines which can funnel assaults into kill zones.

I saw this last night and it looks at the pro Kremlin influencers on various social media channels.

So if the BBC item is reasonably factual then is Andrei Kurshin a fringe influencer, or is he one who has had frequent access to the inner circle of the Russian political and military leaderships? If the former that's understandable, but if the latter then the other favored influencers may have to be more careful lest the FSB invite them in for a cup of tea and a talk.


Whose fault? Ukraine didn't telephone the Putin and say "please invade us because we haven't kept up our defense investments" did they? The Russian invasion of Ukraine starting in 2014 is an act of wanton aggression in breach of international law. Law which by the way Russia is a signatory too.

@KipPotapych
You know the rules about posting sources. Just posting a search term is totally unacceptable. This is an official warning. Do it again and the Moderators will take action against you.

There are plenty of references... So, claims, not verified, not the actual orders. I read those claims about UKR too, no idea who or how reliable.
Their experience and education... and their honesty, they may just say what they are being paid for or, simply, what they want to say.
WRT your opinion... I posted about RUSI, twice, I think. About reading, you could have read what I have posted previously. Reading and understanding are two different things, but I wonder if you think that I mentioned Manstein and Fuller because that is the first thing you get while googling UKR War.
You are better than... I am starting to think that you have to read my post again, I am doubting their honesty, not their wisdom. It is not our duty to doubt Admiralty's wisdom. (And wisdom based on rank too, as I said, I haven't been able to talk to that general).
About Clausewitz, I was very careful when using the word strategy (about my "who's fault"), I was talking about the war; nowadays, they use that word (strategy) for anything and everything.
You can be only and enthusiast, read and draw the right conclusions or you can be a general, and a king for that matter, and very well be, Bernadotte.

Also, closer to my biased point of view/informed opinion (biased opinion/informed point of view):

Time is running out for Ukraine's counteroffensive. Its allies will be crucial in what comes next | Frank Ledwidge

With no military breakthroughs and a US election looming, the west needs to unite around an achievable goal for the conflict, says author Frank Ledwidge

www.theguardian.com

I don't know this officer, I don't know his rank, I don't know how reliable he is, I don't know his qualifications, but I would call theguardian reliable; a lot more than the Torygraph anyway. I would call the offensive failed, unless the plan was to get within 20 km of Tokmak in three months; I also know we don't know the plan.
I don't know if Bernadotte was an enthusiast too, I am.