Russia - General Discussion.

[KipPotapych]

Is a shootdown simpler then Russian security services planting a bomb? I'm not sold, since a shootdown could be observed and air defense fires involve service member personnel that are likelier to leak information then state security services.

That’s true, I agree. Comes down to simplest explanation is best, again, but the point remains. So far we know that there were possibly two explosions when the witnesses saw the plane falling. Witnesses also are questionable, but, perhaps, we can rely on what they heard, the two explosions. One woman recording a video I heard saying it is a drone they shot down (after looking at the plane crashing and recording for good 20-30 seconds). Flight radar could provide some clues to those with knowledge and they may draw some conclusions. At the end, the aircraft was losing altitude at a rate of 2.5 km per 30 seconds.

After leveling off at 28,000 feet at 15:10 UTC, the aircraft continued in level flight at consistent speed until 15:19 UTC at which point the vertical rate decreases dramatically and the aircraft descends briefly before climbing to a maximum altitude of 30,100 feet before descending back to roughly 27,500 feet. It again climbs, reaching 29,300 feet before leveling off once again. It then descends, with the final data received at 15:20:14 UTC at an altitude of 19,725 feet. The altitude graph below shows the final 32 seconds of received altitude data.

Russian Legacy 600 crashes near Tver | Flightradar24 Blog

An Embraer Legacy 600 associated with Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin crashed in Russia after departing Moscow.

www.flightradar24.com

The Reuters article cited above, indicated that the Americans’ preliminary conclusion is that it was shot down.

If we introduce a possible internal explosion, the Ukrainians come into the picture as well, imo. But I don’t believe that is the case. I don’t believe there is some “anti-Putin” or whatever it was called brigade operating in Russia.

 

[KipPotapych]

Reasonable counter arguments about the methods used but any service members tasked with such an operation (shoot down) would have been carefully selected by vested interests in the military hierarchy who despised Prigozhin. That being said, Putin might consider the message more important and missile observation be damned.

But was there any observation? I haven’t heard of any that could be substantiated. I agree with Feanor on the bit that it could be observed and likely would be observed since there were people who not only heard the explosions, but recorded what happened after as well. And they were in relatively close proximity. Surely someone saw a missile if there was one (or two). Especially when there are drones being shot down on daily basis and everyone points their phones to the sky when they hear something, basically.

 

[Feanor]

That’s true, I agree. Comes down to simplest explanation is best, again, but the point remains. So far we know that there were possibly two explosions when the witnesses saw the plane falling. Witnesses also are questionable, but, perhaps, we can rely on what they heard, the two explosions. One woman recording a video I heard saying it is a drone they shot down (after looking at the plane crashing and recording for good 20-30 seconds). Flight radar could provide some clues to those with knowledge and they may draw some conclusions. At the end, the aircraft was losing altitude at a rate of 2.5 km per 30 seconds.

After leveling off at 28,000 feet at 15:10 UTC, the aircraft continued in level flight at consistent speed until 15:19 UTC at which point the vertical rate decreases dramatically and the aircraft descends briefly before climbing to a maximum altitude of 30,100 feet before descending back to roughly 27,500 feet. It again climbs, reaching 29,300 feet before leveling off once again. It then descends, with the final data received at 15:20:14 UTC at an altitude of 19,725 feet. The altitude graph below shows the final 32 seconds of received altitude data.

Russian Legacy 600 crashes near Tver | Flightradar24 Blog

An Embraer Legacy 600 associated with Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin crashed in Russia after departing Moscow.

www.flightradar24.com

The Reuters article cited above, indicated that the Americans’ preliminary conclusion is that it was shot down.

If we introduce a possible internal explosion, the Ukrainians come into the picture as well, imo. But I don’t believe that is the case. I don’t believe there is some “anti-Putin” or whatever it was called brigade operating in Russia.

Reasonably speaking there's no reason to think Ukraine shot it down. That having been said even with a missile shootdown that could be the official line. Ukrainian infiltrators with MANPADS. We will have to wait and see. I suspect they will leave it vague, and let the investigation quietly die. That would be the smartest.

 

[KipPotapych]

Reasonably speaking there's no reason to think Ukraine shot it down. That having been said even with a missile shootdown that could be the official line. Ukrainian infiltrators with MANPADS. We will have to wait and see. I suspect they will leave it vague, and let the investigation quietly die. That would be the smartest.

Absolutely. But I don’t think there is any interest among the officials to push for infiltrators with MANPADS present around Moscow. I think internal explosion makes most sense. And it seems that is what is currently being presented as what most likely happened. A few expert statements that I read (mostly Russian, but few others) seem to agree after reviewing publicly available evidence. Pentagon now says, as opposed to the previous report from Reuters, citing “anonymous sources”, that there is no evidence for surface-to-air missiles being used to bring it down and an explosion on board is a possible cause.

No sign plane crash that likely killed Yevgeny Prigozhin was caused by surface-to-air missile, Pentagon says

The U.S. is still assessing what caused the plane purportedly carrying Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin to crash.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[hauritz]

Looking at the footage of the plane crashing I saw no tell tale smoke trail from a missile. Also MANPADs are good for about 3000 meters maybe. Commercial jets fly maybe twice that height.

My guess would be a planted bomb.

 

[ngatimozart]

Did Prigozhin actually die or not I cannot say but at a guess I'd have to say yes.
Either way with may Russian generals seemingly having a shorter than expected life expectancy how does this recent plane crash and the expected demise of the Wagner leadership affect the Ukraine / Russian war.
I cannot see it as a positive for Russian leadership in the field.

Any thoughts.
Regards S

At the moment there are to many unknowables to be sure and I am tending on the side of caution because yes, Prigozhin knew / knows that he was / is a dead man walking, so we would have to assume that he would have in place plans to prolong his existence. Apparently he was / is highly capable of disguises etc.

Personally I don't believe that this incident will have an impact on the war per se., because Wagner are no longer involved in it. However it is possible that it could have an impact upon the Russian officer corp, because it is believed that he did have a reasonable amount of support within the mid level and some senior level officers. It will have an impact upon Russian foreign policy because Wagner was a big component of that, and Prigozhin had many personal dealings with both Syrian and African political and military leaderships. How the Russian govt navigate around that will be interesting.

Doesn’t guarantee anything though. And I am not saying that was the case, but answered the question about how it would be presented. Also,

The Baza news outlet, which has good sources among law enforcement agencies, reported that investigators were focusing on a theory that one or two bombs may have been planted on board.

Putin breaks silence after Wagner boss Prigozhin's plane crashes

Russian President Vladimir Putin sent his condolences to the family of Yevgeny Prigozhin on Thursday, breaking his silence after the mercenary leader's plane crashed with no survivors two months after he led a mutiny against army chiefs.

www.reuters.com

Haha.

I don’t believe in “conspiracy theories”. The simplest explanation is usually the correct one. Prigozhin is dead. The plane was likely shot down by the MoD with Putin’s blessing - ie, they “conspired” together, or the MoD provided the solution and Putin gave his approval. Prigozhin ended up being far from the smart man he portrayed himself to be (always had my doubts, personally): his “coup” plan was dumb, staying in Russia was dumb, flying from Moscow to St. Petersburg and thinking you are good was even dumber.

Until they publicly hang Prigozhin's body from the battlements of the Kremlin, I would not have faith in any claims that he is dead. He has already reputed to have lived through one fatal aircraft crash where all died and he was claimed to have died in that because he was listed on the passenger manifest. Just because he was listed on the passenger manifest doesn't mean that he was physically aboard the aircraft.

But was there any observation? I haven’t heard of any that could be substantiated. I agree with Feanor on the bit that it could be observed and likely would be observed since there were people who not only heard the explosions, but recorded what happened after as well. And they were in relatively close proximity. Surely someone saw a missile if there was one (or two). Especially when there are drones being shot down on daily basis and everyone points their phones to the sky when they hear something, basically.

Your argument is full of holes because Putin may have wanted it to be known that he was taken out by SAM etc. Don't forget that IF Putin ordered the hit, he will have want a message sent far and wide within Russia and externally.

Looking at the footage of the plane crashing I saw no tell tale smoke trail from a missile. Also MANPADs are good for about 3000 meters maybe. Commercial jets fly maybe twice that height.

My guess would be a planted bomb.

What footage did you look at? There's more than one lot of footage circulating especially on Telegram. Also remember that both Prigozhin and the Russian state do have a history of misinformation.

 

[ngatimozart]

Apparently Putin has commented up the Wagner aircraft crash.

Russia’s Putin delivers mixed tribute to the late Prigozhin, says the talented businessman made ‘serious mistakes’

He called Prigozhin a talented businessman and also a flawed character who had made some bad mistakes. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

Of note, Putin is reported as not commenting on hits at his behest, so the possibility exists that Putin is innocent of this hit. However note that he does make mention of Prigozhin's mistakes saying "I had known Prigozhin for a very long time, since the start of the '90s. He was a man with a difficult fate, and he made serious mistakes in life." Putin delivers mixed tribute to Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin after deadly plane crash

 

[KipPotapych]

At the moment there are to many unknowables to be sure and I am tending on the side of caution because yes, Prigozhin knew / knows that he was / is a dead man walking, so we would have to assume that he would have in place plans to prolong his existence. Apparently he was / is highly capable of disguises etc.

Personally I don't believe that this incident will have an impact on the war per se., because Wagner are no longer involved in it. However it is possible that it could have an impact upon the Russian officer corp, because it is believed that he did have a reasonable amount of support within the mid level and some senior level officers. It will have an impact upon Russian foreign policy because Wagner was a big component of that, and Prigozhin had many personal dealings with both Syrian and African political and military leaderships. How the Russian govt navigate around that will be interesting.

Until they publicly hang Prigozhin's body from the battlements of the Kremlin, I would not have faith in any claims that he is dead. He has already reputed to have lived through one fatal aircraft crash where all died and he was claimed to have died in that because he was listed on the passenger manifest. Just because he was listed on the passenger manifest doesn't mean that he was physically aboard the aircraft.

Your argument is full of holes because Putin may have wanted it to be known that he was taken out by SAM etc. Don't forget that IF Putin ordered the hit, he will have want a message sent far and wide within Russia and externally.

What footage did you look at? There's more than one lot of footage circulating especially on Telegram. Also remember that both Prigozhin and the Russian state do have a history of misinformation.

No matter what anyone says, there will always be a solid thought in most minds that it was a hit by Putin to take Prigozhin out for what he did. Look at the comments here for example. Everyone knew it was coming and many are surprised it took so long. The message is loud and clear. If Prigozhin was shot in Africa by some “African adversary”, the message would still be loud and clear. Furthermore, provided it was an explosive device on board, it isn’t exactly easy to get it past security and into the plane at Sheremetyevo airport.

The Wagner “damage control“ and reorganization started the day after the coup in; it started in Syria and unnamed countries in Africa at the time. I posted a link here then with Russian officials and military rank fly out to those destinations and “wagners” that matter flying out from. Today’s article indicates just as much with some dealings being handled as late as yesterday and the day before. It also mentions that there might be difficulties in regards to the economic assets that Wagner managed overseas, but I am sure that can be resolved as well. Note the loud and clear comments from CAR:

In CAR, President Faustin-Archange Touadera's political adviser Fidele Gouandjika lamented Prigozhin's death as "a great sadness" because his men "helped save democracy" in their role helping the government in its civil war.

But as Wagner was there through a state-level agreement with Russia, "nothing will affect the presence of these instructors" he said. Prigozhin is "a dead leader, we can replace him" Gouandjika added.

What happens to the Wagner Group after Yevgeny Prigozhin plane crash?

A day before mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's plane crash, a Russian official visited Libya to reassure allies that fighters from the Wagner Group would remain in the country -- but under Moscow's control.

www.reuters.com

I believe (from memory) that was the same administration that said they’d be just fine with Mozart and Beethoven that Russians send them instead.

It is even almost as if Prigozhin was taken care of once he didn’t have enough leverage and maybe why it didn’t happen when it “should have” when events were unfolding.

Americans, as per article cited in my previous post, believe he is dead as well.

Don’t get me wrong, I think this is simply the most logical explanation for things that happened with the information we have at hand. Is there a possibility he is alive and well? Sure, perhaps. Is there a possibility he is alive and not well, maybe being held together with Surovikin, maybe some torture involved? Sure, why not. We can let our imagination go wild.

As for Putin not commenting “on hits at his behest”, since it is widely believed that Nemtsov was killed on his orders (by many, not all), he made some strong comments when he was murdered, calling it a political killing, should be resolved quickly using all available resources, etc. That’d be from my memory. Instead doesn’t call or refer to people by name that he thinks betrayed him or the State, while they are still alive.

And for whatever it is worth, yesterday I talked to my “childhood friend” or “we went to high school together”, whatever I called him here previously when the “coup” was happening. His words about Prigozhin were (and I am actually having real difficulties translating the simplicity and indifference in his words): “He was risky. Unlucky.” And this does not reflect the indifferent and almost sarcastic tone in the words he chose to use.

I also asked him about Surovikin. The sentiment was different but not the complete opposite. He said that “He probably made a mistake. It’s quite here about him. He was likely mislead.” When I said he seemed to be a capable general and probably missed on the frontline right now. His reply was “Perhaps”. So there isn’t much feeling of any type on the issue. As if it just is and things have to happen that have to happen. This man, of course, knows and understands way more than your average Ivan, simply due to his past experience and his current position.

Edit: I decide to find my previous post just because it shows a difference in sentiment in regards to Prigozhin, at least in this one not irrelevant example:

I can, to some degree, agree and have some anecdotal evidence to support it. While the whole thing was unrolling at night (my time, of course, or as I was writing here), I had a chat via a messenger with… call it a childhood friend. The guy is a retired colonel in RU, early 40’s, from Sankt Petersburg. Still a midrange higher-up in the governmental structures, sort of thing. In short, his ideas are of course Prigozhin is right, but coup, mutiny, and treason puts him completely out of line. A few others I chatted with since have similar perspective, with some having some stronger words for the chef and saying he’s been out of line for a long time now.

Edit 2: The “risky” above should be replaced with “risk taker”. Apologies.

 

[Pusser Tas]

Looking at Putin

Saw Putin giving an interview re the loss of Prigozhin.

It appeared to me that Putin has had surgery to give his face a new look?

How many others saw this and agree with me?

 

[hauritz]

Looking at Putin

Saw Putin giving an interview re the loss of Prigozhin.

It appeared to me that Putin has had surgery to give his face a new look?

How many others saw this and agree with me?

We live in the era of deep fake so I don’t 100% believe anything I see. I am pretty sure there are doubles of Putin running around but in this case I am pretty sure it was him.

The “condolences” also served as a warning to others. He made it clear that Prigozhin made a mistake.

Best be careful you don’t make mistakes in Putin’s Russia.

 

[Sandhi Yudha]

Looking at Putin

Saw Putin giving an interview re the loss of Prigozhin.

It appeared to me that Putin has had surgery to give his face a new look?

How many others saw this and agree with me?

I thought he got a face-lift a couple of years ago. I can remember his face suddenly looked more stiff and unnatural.

There are claims he had several cosmetic procedures over the years, including Botox, cheek fillers and a chin and eye lift.

But according to others, his appearance changed because of anabole steroïden.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/real-life/news-life/sydney-cosmetic-doctor-claims-vladimir-putin-has-had-too-much-filler/news-story/9d3134a6911a5d5e65545480cd686acd

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Absolutely. But I don’t think there is any interest among the officials to push for infiltrators with MANPADS present around Moscow. I think internal explosion makes most sense. And it seems that is what is currently being presented as what most likely happened. A few expert statements that I read (mostly Russian, but few others) seem to agree after reviewing publicly available evidence. Pentagon now says, as opposed to the previous report from Reuters, citing “anonymous sources”, that there is no evidence for surface-to-air missiles being used to bring it down and an explosion on board is a possible cause.

No sign plane crash that likely killed Yevgeny Prigozhin was caused by surface-to-air missile, Pentagon says

The U.S. is still assessing what caused the plane purportedly carrying Wagner group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin to crash.

www.cbsnews.com

There really is no way to save face here, is there?
1. Either the pilot had a heart attack or accidentally fell from the cockpit - admission of assassination.
2. Someone loaded a bomb - commercial flights and airports are now unsafe, raising panic.
3. Ukrainians shot it down - admission of vulnerability deep inside Russia.
4. Russians shot it down by accident - same as #2.

People outside and inside Russia know it was an assassination. That is the reasonable assumption to make, and that is what will be ingrained in people's minds. So what's left? Only the legal technicalities, plus Russia's ability to use it as a false flag. That's about it.

Haven't heard any Russia-related news aside from a video of the crash so I don't know what narrative they chose, but I'm willing to bet it's a #1, #2, and another third thing. It's weird there's usually about 3 narratives for momentary events.

 

[ngatimozart]

No matter what anyone says, there will always be a solid thought in most minds that it was a hit by Putin to take Prigozhin out for what he did. Look at the comments here for example. Everyone knew it was coming and many are surprised it took so long. The message is loud and clear. If Prigozhin was shot in Africa by some “African adversary”, the message would still be loud and clear. Furthermore, provided it was an explosive device on board, it isn’t exactly easy to get it past security and into the plane at Sheremetyevo airport.

The Wagner “damage control“ and reorganization started the day after the coup in; it started in Syria and unnamed countries in Africa at the time. I posted a link here then with Russian officials and military rank fly out to those destinations and “wagners” that matter flying out from. Today’s article indicates just as much with some dealings being handled as late as yesterday and the day before. It also mentions that there might be difficulties in regards to the economic assets that Wagner managed overseas, but I am sure that can be resolved as well. Note the loud and clear comments from CAR:

In CAR, President Faustin-Archange Touadera's political adviser Fidele Gouandjika lamented Prigozhin's death as "a great sadness" because his men "helped save democracy" in their role helping the government in its civil war.

But as Wagner was there through a state-level agreement with Russia, "nothing will affect the presence of these instructors" he said. Prigozhin is "a dead leader, we can replace him" Gouandjika added.

What happens to the Wagner Group after Yevgeny Prigozhin plane crash?

A day before mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin's plane crash, a Russian official visited Libya to reassure allies that fighters from the Wagner Group would remain in the country -- but under Moscow's control.

www.reuters.com

I believe (from memory) that was the same administration that said they’d be just fine with Mozart and Beethoven that Russians send them instead.

It is even almost as if Prigozhin was taken care of once he didn’t have enough leverage and maybe why it didn’t happen when it “should have” when events were unfolding.

Americans, as per article cited in my previous post, believe he is dead as well.

Don’t get me wrong, I think this is simply the most logical explanation for things that happened with the information we have at hand. Is there a possibility he is alive and well? Sure, perhaps. Is there a possibility he is alive and not well, maybe being held together with Surovikin, maybe some torture involved? Sure, why not. We can let our imagination go wild.

As for Putin not commenting “on hits at his behest”, since it is widely believed that Nemtsov was killed on his orders (by many, not all), he made some strong comments when he was murdered, calling it a political killing, should be resolved quickly using all available resources, etc. That’d be from my memory. Instead doesn’t call or refer to people by name that he thinks betrayed him or the State, while they are still alive.

And for whatever it is worth, yesterday I talked to my “childhood friend” or “we went to high school together”, whatever I called him here previously when the “coup” was happening. His words about Prigozhin were (and I am actually having real difficulties translating the simplicity and indifference in his words): “He was risky. Unlucky.” And this does not reflect the indifferent and almost sarcastic tone in the words he chose to use.

I also asked him about Surovikin. The sentiment was different but not the complete opposite. He said that “He probably made a mistake. It’s quite here about him. He was likely mislead.” When I said he seemed to be a capable general and probably missed on the frontline right now. His reply was “Perhaps”. So there isn’t much feeling of any type on the issue. As if it just is and things have to happen that have to happen. This man, of course, knows and understands way more than your average Ivan, simply due to his past experience and his current position.

Edit: I decide to find my previous post just because it shows a difference in sentiment in regards to Prigozhin, at least in this one not irrelevant example:

Edit 2: The “risky” above should be replaced with “risk taker”. Apologies.

At the moment the only ones that I have not seen blamed for the crash are the Borg and the Daleks. I am being serious too. I saw a rumour this morning that the FSB planted a bomb in the cargo hold. No proof was supplied and as far as I am concerned, at the moment that has the reliability of a pollie on the campaign trail.

Is Prigozhin dead? Maybe, maybe not, but until they display his body with a stake driven through its heart we don't know. The probability is that he may be, but there is also a probability that he may not and at the moment I estimate the probability on both to be 0.5 out of 1.0. I Kiwi horse racing terms I have a dollar each way on it.

The probability that Putin ordered the hit is reasonably high but definitely not 1.0. That's why I am treating much of this with caution.

 

[swerve]

Putin could not order a hit, but make it clear that he wouldn't object to one, thus giving him a way out if things went wrong.

 

[hauritz]

Putin could not order a hit, but make it clear that he wouldn't object to one, thus giving him a way out if things went wrong.

Presidents, whether the be Russian or American, probably order hits on what could be perceived as enemies of the state all the time. Prigozhin did attempt a coup after all and from what I saw he still represented a threat not just to Putin but to the entire Russian political system. He was a dead man walking for the last couple of months.

That they managed to take out a big hunk of the leadership of the Wagner group in one go was actually pretty clever really. Probably less suspicious than taking them out one at a time and of course leaves them in a position where they are not likely to be able to retaliate.

Of course with someone like Prigozhin he is likely to have many enemies. Let’s face there aren’t too many likely to be shedding tears at his passing.

 

[Vivendi]

Any NATO expansion was always a great concern for Russia.

Any Russian expansion was always a great concern for Russia's neighbor countries.

However, as we have seen in the Baltics, Poland, Georgia, and now also in Ukraine, it's not just a question of "concern" -- it's a question of life and death for those living in a country bordering Russia. At least to me, that trumps any "concerns".

I am not sure if you are aware of all the terrible crimes committed against Russia's closest neighbors, by Russia/USSR? Most people living in a border country of Russia are fully aware of it, and this is why most of them were so desperate to join NATO after USSR collapsed. It also explains why, after the full invasion of Ukraine, most of them have significantly increased their defense budgets, and are also providing massive military support to Ukraine.

Those who believed that Russia had changed their ways after the collapse of USSR in 1991 were proven wrong in 2008, again in 2014/2015, and even more so in 2022.

Any "concerns" Russia may have about NATO expansion should be ignored. The reason is simple. Russia understands and respects only one language: the language of strength and power. A pity Ukraine did not become a NATO member before 2014, this whole war would have been avoided.

A majority of young Russians distrust NATO more than any other organization and disagree that Russia is a European country, according to a recent poll conducted by Russia’s independent Levada Center and Germany’s Friedrich Ebert Foundation.

These organizations’ research on the opinions of Russia’s “Generation Z” (aged 14 to 29) revealed that 80 percent expressed a strong to moderate degree of distrust toward NATO.

How many do you think trust Russia after all the broken promises from Russia? And who would risk a full-scale invasion followed by rape, torture, and killing of civilians, just to placate a "concern" that some Russians may have?

Hopefully Europe has learned a lesson. As long as Russia still dreams about rebuilding its evil empire, NATO should keep it's "open door" policy, and allow all countries that meet the criteria and want to join, to let them in. That's the only decent thing to do, when looking at the terrible crimes Russia have committed (and are still committing) in Ukraine, and elsewhere.

 

[Ananda]

Prigozhin's dead body identified by DNA after plane crash, Russia says

The Wagner chief staged a high-profile armed rebellion against Moscow in June, which experts saw as a real threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

www.newsweek.com

Prigozhin and Utkin DNA along with 10 passanger identified. So Prigo seems so far really dead, with most his close lieutenants. Wagner take over seems complete.

 

[Redshift]

Prigozhin's dead body identified by DNA after plane crash, Russia says

The Wagner chief staged a high-profile armed rebellion against Moscow in June, which experts saw as a real threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

www.newsweek.com

Prigozhin and Utkin DNA along with 10 passanger identified. So Prigo seems so far really dead, with most his close lieutenants. Wagner take over seems complete.

I can't wait for Russian State media to report that the cause of the crash was "pilot error" as he was seen hacking a wing off with a hand saw.

Or that the notoriously unreliable western engines (Rolls Royce I think) exploded mid air.

 

[John Fedup]

I can't wait for Russian State media to report that the cause of the crash was "pilot error" as he was seen hacking a wing off with a hand saw.

Or that the notoriously unreliable western engines (Rolls Royce I think) exploded mid air.

I guess there is always the meteor shower strike theory, August is the time for this (name starting with L escapes at the moment).

 

[Larry_L]

I am not positive that Prigozhin is dead, however it is likely. I remember hearing him say this not too long ago. It gives me a tiny suspicion that he stayed around, rather than disappearing, partly because he was true patriot. He seems almost prophetic here.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1695779050621391347