The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Ananda

The Bunker Group

the middle of the road approach is to assume PAX losses are both sides are comparable - which at this point (from various professional estimates) are in the 250,000 range (K+W)
The idea of Ukrainian have better casualties or 'attrition' level then Russian, is now being contested even by some Western Mainstream Media. It is no doubt Ukrainian military not only being underestimated by Russian but also by Western POV in the beginning of this war. However Russian pull back from other parts of Ukrainian last year (and consolidated on four oblast presently), and many in West attributes as Ukrainian military superiority and Russian incompetence is also not as straight forward simple like that.

Ukrainian is the second republic in USSR. So it also means they have the 2nd resources smaller only to Russia as 1st republic (the order more to the level of capabilities of each USSR Republic). So this means Ukrainian even without Western help can inflict big enough damages to Russian, let alone now with Western full backing. However when we see all this offensive mostly use new recruits, it also means most original Ukrainian Army in Donbas already depleted. Those units was and still is the most trained ones in Ukrainian armyat the war.

So the arguments of one side has better attrition level in this war, just simply not add up. I have said in this thread, that I read all attrition calculation on each sides, and then compare it on the reality in the ground. If One side have better or superiority on attrition level then the adversaries (as each sides claim), then they will shown on the progress in the grounds.

Thus when the war now slugging on changing position level, when 200m advance is claim as breakthrough, then it is shown they are basically become meat grinders to each other. So unless one sides can afford more attrition level then the others, this war going to end up like frozen conflict in Korean DMZ.
 



The idea of Ukrainian have better casualties or 'attrition' level then Russian, is now being contested even by some Western Mainstream Media. It is no doubt Ukrainian military not only being underestimated by Russian but also by Western POV in the beginning of this war. However Russian pull back from other parts of Ukrainian last year (and consolidated on four oblast presently), and many in West attributes as Ukrainian military superiority and Russian incompetence is also not as straight forward simple like that.

Ukrainian is the second republic in USSR. So it also means they have the 2nd resources smaller only to Russia as 1st republic (the order more to the level of capabilities of each USSR Republic). So this means Ukrainian even without Western help can inflict big enough damages to Russian, let alone now with Western full backing. However when we see all this offensive mostly use new recruits, it also means most original Ukrainian Army in Donbas already depleted. Those units was and still is the most trained ones in Ukrainian armyat the war.

So the arguments of one side has better attrition level in this war, just simply not add up. I have said in this thread, that I read all attrition calculation on each sides, and then compare it on the reality in the ground. If One side have better or superiority on attrition level then the adversaries (as each sides claim), then they will shown on the progress in the grounds.

Thus when the war now slugging on changing position level, when 200m advance is claim as breakthrough, then it is shown they are basically become meat grinders to each other. So unless one sides can afford more attrition level then the others, this war going to end up like frozen conflict in Korean DMZ.
There have been a lot of highly optimistic claims about casualty rates thrown around, and the truth is we don't have reliable data on Ukrainian or Russian casualties. Claims of consistent 3 to 1 or 5 to 1 across an entire conflict are pretty silly.

We don't know how attrition will play out for each side over the coming months and years, there is a lot of mobilisation capacity left in Russia if their domestic politics will allow it, and there is capacity in Western MIC and stockpiles to increase support if the domestic politics allow for it. And neither side is even close to exhausted manpower from a total war conscription sense.

I think we need to be cautious about thinking this is headed towards frozen conflict while the fighting is still at this intensity, regardless of whether ground is changing hands. The front was static for several years on the Western Front during world war 1 - but the fighting was nowhere near frozen.

As long as the fighting and losses continue at an intensity higher than the long term sustainable replacement rate for required equipment for one or both sides, then we haven't reached equilibrium of comparative force capacity.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
long as the fighting and losses continue at an intensity higher than the long term sustainable replacement rate for required equipment for one or both sides, then we haven't reached equilibrium of comparative force capacity.
Agree, that's why I said "unless one sides can afford more attrition level then other's" as precondition this war going to reach frozen conflict like in Korea. Yes we still not know yet the level of attrition that each sides can bear.

Early in this war, I put in this thread market expectations that the conflict will goes until Q4 last year. This base on assumption on what attrition level that Ukrainian able to withstand, and Russia willing to withstand. Later level of Western will to supplies and Russian will to counter react toward that additional Western supplies, clearly not being projected enough before.

Still in the end attrition level will reach saturate level either on both sides or the other way around when one sides reach saturate threshold first. Do remember that in WW1, changes of fortune to the allies related to US entry. While in East actually the news are not good for the allies. Russian Empire not having enough traction with the German, while British lead Gallipoli operation also bogged down against the Ottoman Turks. Without US entry, the German Empire can still have enough juice to force the allies for armistice.

That saturation threshold that's still not clear yet from both sides in this war. However personally, until something big (in term of supplies commitment) coming from either sides, I don't see much progress on the ground except more position sludges. So, yes it's still can go either way, but personally I just got feeling (base on the progress and level of commitment on either sides shown so far), this is going to be a frozen ones.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
When the USA joined the war, the Gallipoli operation had been over for more than a year & the British had just captured Baghdad, where they stopped for logistical reasons & higher priorities elsewhere, not because of Ottoman opposition. The Ottoman attempts to capture or disrupt the Suez canal had failed completely, & they'd been pushed out of Sinai. The Ottomans were losing their grip on Hejaz. And this was cheap for the British. Gallipoli had been an expensive blunder, but much had been achieved since it, & Ottoman ability to launch offensives seems to have ceased to exist.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
The main point, without US entrance to WW1, British and French will be in stalemate against German Empire. With Bolshevick revolution put death warrant for Russian Empire, without Russian Empire taking about half of German strength, German Empire still can force allies (especially French and UK) for negotiated settlement.

What if Wilson instead entering the War, then goes to Allies and Central Powers and force them to negotiate. What if Wilson say to each of them, parties that won't negotiate will face US in the war.


If the U.S. had stayed out of the war, it seems likely there would have been some kind of negotiated settlement. Neither the Allied Powers (France, Britain, Russia, Italy, Japan, and several smaller states) nor the Central Powers (Germany, Austria-Hungary, the Ottoman Empire, and Bulgaria) would have gained everything they wanted from a negotiated settlement. Both sides would have complained.
That article opinion can be argue, but it is also shown realities that neither side have enough 'juice' to force other sides. Thus stalemate seems what will happen. Yes, British has force Ottoman from much of middle east, but not enough to force Ottoman surrender. Austro Hungary being clobbered by Italian, but they are also still force to be recon with. US that broke the stalemate.

Back to this Ukrainian war, stalemate also can happen base on the progress of the war, unless one side got sudden advantages with situations on supplies/logistics . Just like the Allies got with the entrence of US in the war. Both Ukrainian (with NATO supplies) and Russian don't reach stalemate yet, cause each sides still have enough supplies to spend on the war. However it won't be forever. So again, either one side can have sudden influx of supplies to force the others, or both side simply exhausted in the end, and need to reach settlement that neither side satisfied.

Something that I agree with the article, could happen in WW1, if US not entrer the war. Remember, we still don't know whose going to win US ellection.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Lots of variables that could alter the course of this war. Certainly a GOP election win in 2024 would be a big one, especially if Trump reclaimed the oval office, although his legal troubles are making this less likely. China would almost certainly provide military kit to Russia if their MIC faltered to an extent that causes significant Russian instability. This in turn might result in Western escalation followed possibly by a Chinese escalation by invading Taiwan to distract NATO (along with the desire to "reclaim" Taiwan). Hopefully some adults can prevent any of this actually occurring.
 
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vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
There have been a lot of highly optimistic claims about casualty rates thrown around, and the truth is we don't have reliable data on Ukrainian or Russian casualties. Claims of consistent 3 to 1 or 5 to 1 across an entire conflict are pretty silly.
We have -some- info on RU losses, from various sources:

- DPR was reporting its K+W for some time (stopped in Dec ?)
- RU VDV quotes on their losses
- Wagner reported its losses
- Meduza claims to have corroborated at least 27K RU KIA (which they claim is biased low by at least 2:1, and doesnt count LPR/DPR)

Overall, I would guess UKR loss rates are generally better than RU (based on tank losses - and yes, thats probably weak statistically by now), except for possibly now and when taking Kherson.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

We have two general areas of interest; Zaporzohye and Oskol. No major changes in either, continuing trends from before.

Zaporozhye front.

Heavy fighting is continuing in Zaporozhye where Ukrainian forces continue to gain ground, albeit very slowly, around Urozhaynoe and Rabotino areas. Near Rabotino Ukrainian forces have finally been able to secure a foothold east of the village (east not north-east). However a Russia counter-attack is practically guaranteed and it remains to be seen if this foothold remains intact. Near Urozhaynoe Ukraine has pushed Russian forces out of the southern outskirts. At this point the north side of the village is in Ukrainian hands, the rest of it is no-man's land, and the positions south of it are held by Russian forces. The biggest piece of news is that Ukraine appears to have committed additional reserves in Zaporozhye including the 82nd Assault Bde, riding Marders and Strykers. These aren't quite all of Ukraine's reserves, but these are definitely forces that were meant for exploiting a breakthrough. In all likelihood Ukraine has given up on achieving a breakthrough and is at this point simply trying to gain as much ground as possible. This makes a certain amount of sense since literally 0 progress might lead to uncomfortable questions from western backers. However this will continue to be very costly. At this point Ukraine's losses in vehicles from the fighting are in the hundreds. Compensating them will require another massive batch of aid packages. However there's no reason to think they won't be forthcoming. Additionally it appears Ukrainian forces were briefly able to enter the northern outskirts of Rabotino but were pushed out.

Rabotino-Orekhov Axis

Russian FAB strikes against allegedly Ukrainian infantry. Presumably these are gliding bombs. One of the problems with holding captured Russian strong points is that Russia knows exactly where they are, and can hit them.


Ukrainian forces on the northern outskirts of Rabotino getting hit.


Allegedly a PT-91 destroyed south-east of Rabotino. If accurate, that's the greatest Ukrainian penetration in this area yet. I think the second video shows the strike itself, and the destroyed tank in the photo does look like a PT-91. The PT-91 is an upgrade of the T-72M1, so unless the Poles did something special with the armor, it's under-armored even by 1980's standards. The M and M1 variants were notoriously undearmored intentionally as an export version downgrade.


Allegedly an M-777 getting hit near Orekhov. I can't make out what the artillery piece is but it definitely looks like artillery and there appear to be secondary detonations once it burns.


Russian loitering munition strike against Ukrainian supply trucks, Orekhov area.


Oshkosh M-ATV burned out near Malaya Tokamachka.


Two Leo-2A4s, one destroyed, one knocked out, near Malaya Tokamachka.


A burning Ukrainian Iveco LMV, near Rabotino.


Allegedly burning Ukrainian vehicles near Rabotino. Hard to make out the type.


Reportedly 3 Strykers were destroyed near Rabotino. They are likely from the 82nd Bde.


A YPR-765 knocked out near Rabotino.


Allegedly 5 Ukrainian POWs captured near Rabotino. Note there is nothing particularly unusual about this given the scale of the fighting.


Allegedly a captured BMP-1 near Rabotino. Note we saw one stuck on a trench after the failed attack by an entire Ukrainian mech coy riding them. This might be that vehicle, the triangular tactical marking looks similar.



Russian sources confirm the loss of a Ka-52 near Rabotino, with the weapons operator KIA and the commander surviving thanks to the ejection system. we can see the ejection system working in the second link.


Russian Marine from the 810th Bde in the center of Rabotino.


Marders have apparently been spotted near Rabotino. One is claimed destroyed but with no footage.


Vremyevskiy Bulge.

Continuing Russian Ka-52 strikes. I really wonder why most of the Ka-52 footage is from this location specifically. I know it's one of the focal points, but we've had very little such footage near Rabotino.


Russian Grad and bomb strikes at Urozhaynoe.


Russian loitering munition strike on a Ukrainian vehicle north of Urozhaynoe.


Two XA-180s immobilized on land mines near Urozhaynoe.


Russian infantry in in a trench with Ukrainian corpses, claiming it's a repulsed Ukrainian attack. It shows a different side of this war, and casual, even jocular remarks about the corpses, highlight the brutality of the fighting that's often lost when we see buckets of footage from a UAV. Warning very graphic footage of corpses.


Zaporozhye Non-specified.

A Russian loitering munition striking a Stryker, pardon the pun. Note the Stryker has only an HMG for armament, making it less suitable for mechanized attacks and more suited as primarily a transport vehicle which is what it appears to be doing here. I suspect this is also Rabotino area since this is where these vehicles were reported.


An interesting video of a close range battle between two mech formations, a Ukrainian one with BMPs and MBTs, and a Russian one of the same. We can see a Russian MBT taking Ukrainian BMPs out, and a Russian BMP firing it's 30mm autocannon at a Ukrainian MBT to distract it. There also appears to be infantry in the brush.


Russian artillery strike on Ukrainian vehicles and infantry, Zaporozhye. Note we rarely see massive Ukrainian formations trying to move now, instead we see small groups, and single vehicles for the most part, squad and platoon level formations.


Russian recon, 42nd MRD, using a GP-25 with a separate rig to fire without a rifle.


Assorted FPV drone footage striking various Ukrainian light armor and a T-72.


Assort FPV footage striking Ukrainian infantry. Note they target groups as small as 2 soldiers. There have been reports of increased Russian FPV drone deliveries. However these drones tend to have very small payloads and tend to be weak against EW.


Allegedly an M109 getting hit, Zaporozhye area. Note it's clear an SP howitzer, and the secondary explosion is massive, suggesting its full of ammo.


A destroyed T-72 missing its turret and Leo-2A6 burned out. Note I think we've seen this pair before.


A destroyed Oshkosh M-ATV somewhere in Ukraine.


A rare M1064A3 self-propelled mortar on an M113 destroyed. First loss of the type.


An M113 MEDEVAC hit a landmine, but appears recoverable.


Allegedly an FH-70 getting hit, Ukrainian. I don't know how they identified it, I certainly can't tell what they hit.


Russian Su-25s in Zaporozhye. Note how low they fly.


Ukrainian M-55S (T-55) Zaporozhye, 67th Mech Bde.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Oskol Front.

Russian forces are steadily gaining ground near Kupyansk. They're on the outskirts of Sin'kovka, but the main effort seems to be to take Ukrainian strong points north-east of Petropavlovka. It's likely that the intent is to prepare for an assault on Sin'kovka and then Petropavlovka as a precursor to attacking Kupyansk itself. With Ukrainian reserves being committed in Zaporozhye, it's unclear if Ukraine will be able to put anything in place to counter this effort. One sign that Russia has committed to attacking here is the increased footage of Russian loitering munition strikes in the area.


Reportedly Russia has destroyed one of the bridges across the Oskol. Which of course raises the obvious question. Why not destroy them all? They're perfect targets for guided bombs.


Allegedly a Ukrainian armored vehicle getting hit by a Russian loitering munition, Kharkov region.


Ukrainian 2S3 and allegedly Zuzana howitzer getting hit by Russian loitering munitions.


2 Ukrainian 2S1s, and an M109A5 hit, Kharkov region.


This is claimed as the destruction of a Rosomak APC. Note Ukraine has taken delivery of these Polish APCs but they haven't been sighted on the front lines yet. Personally I suspect a Stryker is more likely. Ukraine received more then one brigade worth of them, and the 82nd also riders Marders, meaning there is almost certainly a second unit using them. Ukraine's 95th Airborne was recently sent to Kupyansk as reinforcements so this might be them.


A rare Russian Tornado-G firing on the Kupyansk axis.


Russian Tor-M2 operations near Kupyansk.


Allegedly a Ukrainian roving mortar team getting hit in the woods of Kremennaya.


Ukrainian T-72EA knocked out by Russian artillery, and a T-72M1 destroyed, Lugansk region.


A Ukrainian MBT (T-64?) getting hit by a Russian loitering munition somewhere between Svatovo and Kremennaya.


Other Interesting Tidbits.

Russian forces have now successfully pushed Ukraine out of their foothold at Kazachya Lopan'. This is a small area on the banks of the Dnepr where a Russian mobilized infantry unit was pushed back by a Ukrainian landing. A counter-attack was led by the btln commander who was taken prisoner as a result. The area has now been retaken by Russian forces. The pattern of Ukrainian footholds being used to draw Russian forces without a major cross-river assault holds.


A Ukrainian Strela-10 getting hit by a Russian loitering munition. Note the footage. It fires on something and appears to hit it, presumably a UAV. However we have post-SAM launch footage from two observer UAVs, and then separate footage from the loitering munition. This is an example of drastically increasing Russian UAV concentrations.


Another interesting example of Russian SEAD. We have a Strela-10 attempting to engage an Orlan 10 and failing. It them rapidly relocates, since the trail of the missile reveals her last position. However it then gets hit by Russian artillery. Artillery as SEAD is pretty unusual, but when you consider the longer ranges of modern artillery, and the need for front line SHORAD as anti-UAV, this is likely going to be more common in the future.


Russia apparently managed to strike a munitions train in Dnepropetrovsk. The footage isn't perfect but the explosion is quite large and is consistent with something of that sort. It was apparently a missile strike that caught it while the train was unloading. But more interesting is the fact that a Russian UAV was on hand to observe. Interestingly enough Russian sources affiliated with frontline units report improvements in access to longer range UAVs. The second link shows Russian UAV footage over Kharkov. Of course the question remains, is this a one-off well planned single strike, or will we see more? Like Russian gliding bomb strikes against bridges that started and then rapidly ended this could matter, or not.


A handful of Ukrainian vehicles were hit around Bakhmut area including 1 M113 destroyed, 1 knocked out and captured, a BMP-1 destroyed, a MaxxPro MRAP destroyed, a BMP-2 with infantry getting hit by a loitering munition, and an artillery piece (possibly L119) got hit.


I think this captured M113 getting hauled away is the one above.


Russian has reportedly massively increased production of Krasnopol' M2 guided shells. Note they're claiming a 25 times increase but providing no baseline, so it's hard to tell what this means other then, they will have more of them.


It appears Russia has begun landing inspection teams on ships heading towards Ukraine's river port. Russia of course doesn't have the resources to do this to all ships but presumably can slow down traffic to some extent and check some ships to make sure they're not carrying military supplies.


Ukrainian T-64BV mod'17 with a bench for tank riders behind the turret. It's a questionable choice, likely driven by desperation.


A CR-2 somewhere near the front line, possibly Orekhov area, with a roof cage and cage armor on the sides. Others with just the side armor, possibly the roof cages are removable.


An extremely rare Ukrainian ZSU-23-4 Shilka, covered in all kinds of improvised armor. Presumably the radar is removed.


In Chernigov in a local theater Ukraine set up an expo to look at UAV models. Russia promptly struck it with a missile.


Mirroring this Ukraine hit a Russian jet in Novgorod with a quadcopter, at an airfield. The level of damage is unclear, but this could have been a Tu-22M3. We can see rising smoke implying a fire.


A very rare Ukrainian 2S22 Bogdana somewhere on the water.


Russian General-Colonel Zhidko reportedly passed away. Circumstances are unclear, but he was acting commander of East MD. Rumor has it as a heart attack.

 

StingrayOZ

Super Moderator
Staff member
Seems as I was wrong and Ukraine is getting Dutch and Danish F-16's..

This is very good news. Combined with pledges from elsewhere, Ukraine could be operating a quite capable airforce. Combined with a surge in donation in ammunition and land hardware, this may setup both sides for coming to the table and talking out a ceasefire. It sounds like both sides are dug in, and gains are being very high causality cost. A cease fire would allow at least winter to be less hectic and loosing solders and equipment to exposure for no gains.
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
Seems as I was wrong and Ukraine is getting Dutch and Danish F-16's..

This is very good news. Combined with pledges from elsewhere, Ukraine could be operating a quite capable airforce. Combined with a surge in donation in ammunition and land hardware, this may setup both sides for coming to the table and talking out a ceasefire. It sounds like both sides are dug in, and gains are being very high causality cost. A cease fire would allow at least winter to be less hectic and loosing solders and equipment to exposure for no gains.
Posted above…how do you think they will be used? CAS, SEAD, Strike, Air to Air?,
 

Bob53

Well-Known Member
Training is going to be an issue though.
Apparently first batch of 20 odd F16 pilots will complete late this year. One thing people do forget to a degree. Many Ukrainians are very well educated and smart, speak English and Ukraine had a decent sized jet and aero space industry for the past 50 years along with a large number of engineers and pilots. They are no beginners.
 

bogs

New Member
Many Ukrainians are very well educated and smart, speak English
Unfortunately, that's not the case here with the UKR pilots, as they have some issues with the English language, as you can see.


Eight Ukrainian pilots who are fluent in English are ready to begin training on the fighter jet as soon as a formal training plan is drawn up by a handful of European allies and approved by the United States. The exact timing of that instruction remains unclear.

The U.S. official further said 20 pilots that speak some English are available to start language courses in the United Kingdom as soon as this month. (That may be what Ukrainian President VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY meant when he announced the start of F-16 training in August.) Altogether, 32 Ukrainian pilots — enough for two squadrons — have been identified to potentially take part in the training program, but English proficiency remains a sticking point.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Seems as I was wrong and Ukraine is getting Dutch and Danish F-16's..

This is very good news. Combined with pledges from elsewhere, Ukraine could be operating a quite capable airforce. Combined with a surge in donation in ammunition and land hardware, this may setup both sides for coming to the table and talking out a ceasefire. It sounds like both sides are dug in, and gains are being very high causality cost. A cease fire would allow at least winter to be less hectic and loosing solders and equipment to exposure for no gains.
Frankly, I doubt the F-16’s will change anything at all. I still don’t entirely believe, like I said many months ago, they will get to Ukraine before this is over. This Reuters article outlines the timetable of actual commitments and the first few are scheduled to arrive “around New Year”:

Denmark will deliver 19 jets in total, with the first six due to be shipped to Ukraine around New Year, followed by eight in 2024 and five the following year, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said.

I am not sure, but this doesn’t sound realistic to me. Given the timing and how things are going on the ground, it seems that this is just another of those lets announce something and lift up the spirits that we have been through numerous times before in this conflict.

Discussed in the other thread, since it “timely” appeared, in regards to the fighting for freedom of all of us:

"We know that your freedom is our freedom. We also know that you need more" weapons, Frederiksen said during a joint press conference with Zelenskiy in the Skrydstrup airbase in Denmark.

Also relevant, but for the life of me I cannot find the article (pretty sure it was at Reuters as well) that indicated that the donation was conditional on pilot training, as well preparation of infrastructure in Ukraine, among other things. The latter isn’t necessarily going to happen. So you may still be right in your first assessment.

Training is going to be an issue though.
Of course it will. Moreover, as opposed to previous numerous reports of the “top” pilots being ready for quick training and the like, the reality is quite different (which isn’t surprising at all though):

Hecker added that the cadre of pilots undergoing F-16 training are very junior and will need seasoning to become proficient with the fighter—they “barely have any hours at all. So they’re not currently fighting in the war,” Hecker said.[…]

Whenever the F-16s do arrive in Ukraine, reaching proficiency will take even more time, Hecker warned.

“To get proficient in the F-16, that’s not going to happen overnight. You can get proficient on some weapons systems fairly quickly. But ones like F-16s, it takes a while to build … a couple squadrons of F-16s, and to get their readiness high enough, and their proficiency high enough. I mean, you’re talking, this could be four or five years down the road.”



I am also certain they all know it isn’t going to change anything. The main reason for these planes is the same as everything else that has been provided so far: to keep this going. In other words, sooner or later, Ukraine is going to run out of their own aviation due to it being destroyed, or they’ll simply run out of parts. It is, in part, reflected in the same article linked above:

Yet Hecker downplayed the significance the F-16s may have in helping Ukraine combat Russia’s invasion, saying the capability won’t be a “silver bullet” but will simply ease Ukraine’s use of air-to-ground weapons already being provided. His comments echo previous remarks from Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, who have said F-16s won’t be a “game-changer” or “magic weapon,” respectively.

“What the F-16 will give them is, it’s going to be more interoperable with the current weapons that we’re giving them now,” Hecker said. “Right now, weapons that we’re giving them have to be adapted to go on the MiG-29 or go on the Su-27, or something like that.”

The U.S. has provided Ukraine with weapons including the AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile, which has been seen flying on Ukrainian MiG-29s, which Hecker called “a pretty capable aircraft.” However, Ukraine has asked Western nations for F-16s in part because the MiG-29 is a Russian design and parts are difficult to get to keep the fleet flying.


Some reports suggest that they are already extremely low in the aviation department, but also questionable statements in terms of drone strikes somewhat compensating for it:


With its ground forces advancing slowly, Ukraine is using drone strikes to expand its military’s reach as it waits for more advanced munitions and training — including greater air power, said Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s minister of defense.

“We don’t have the F-16s yet so we have to find way to make up for their absence and drones are somewhat used to compensate for the lack of aviation,” he said.


I say questionable for two reasons. First is, of course, their drone use is not compensating for the lack of aviation (not as Sak means it in the quote above anyway). Second is that the paragraphs quoted above are followed directly by the paragraphs discussing Ukrainian drone use on Russian territory. Another interesting tidbit in regards to the latter is mentioned in the previous article I cited above:

Importantly, F-16s won’t be able to “chase down” Russian aircraft over Russian territory, “because you’ll get shot by one of the Russian surface-to-air missiles,” Hecker said.

I find it interesting that even the choice of words gets looser as it goes on. On this note,

Hopefully some adults can prevent any of this actually occurring.
I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it, lol.
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Apparently first batch of 20 odd F16 pilots will complete late this year. One thing people do forget to a degree. Many Ukrainians are very well educated and smart, speak English and Ukraine had a decent sized jet and aero space industry for the past 50 years along with a large number of engineers and pilots. They are no beginners.
This isn’t the case, as outlined above. But it is funny how various media reports shape our minds.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
This assumes an end to the war that is relatively favorable for Ukraine, I'm curious what you think that ending might look like?
The possibility exists that Ukraine can successfully end the war in its favour. The possibility also exists that Russia will be victorious. Based upon the performance of the Russian military in the field, their senior political and military leadership, the probability of Ukraine successfully concluding the war in its favour is greater than a Russian victory.
Not really about what Russia is in a position to demand, more about what they will accept. I'm skeptical that they would ever willingly sign a peace deal that leaves the door open for NATO membership or stops short of giving them Crimea and the Donbass, given that these seem to be Russia's central war aims. If that's the case, the question is how does Ukraine impose these terms on them?
The problem with Russia is that Putin thinks he's Stalin and he will only negotiate where he gives away nothing, but expects everything in return. Stalin he definitely isn't, and he wouldn't even make a wart on Stalin's bum. He isn't poltically, intellectually, or as brutal as Stalin and he doesn't have Stalins ruthlessness or vision. If Stalin, Kruschev et al., were in charge, any Russian invasion of Ukraine would be final and over in a very short time. They wouldn't have let the Russian miitary deteriorate to its current level and any incompetents would've been off to the gulags so fast, their feet wouldn't even touch the ground.

I have seen more than one commentator state that Russia no longer has an oerarching philosophy or national goal, and I tend to agree with them. This looks very similiar to the last alf of the Tsar Nicolas II reign where the imperial govt was incompetent and the Romanov dynasty self destructiong from within due to rot. There is nothing for the average Russian soldier to fight for apart for themselves and their mates; they have no overarching political belief or national goal, unlike the Ukrainians. Putin likes to compare the current war to the Great Patriotic War of 1941 - 45, but there's no comparison because in that war, Russia was the victim and they were fighting for their families, the survival of Mother Russia. Stalin and the CPSU. What are they fighting for today?
Not really following you, but after the war if Ukraine gives Russia occupied lands in exchange for peace (and as of now Russia would be more than happy to even get that), there is nothing stoping Ukraine from joining NATO like Finland did.

Putin knows he lost Kiev for ever. And Ukraine will NEVER sign a treaty that forbids it joining NATO/EU or it will just brake said treaty and join anyway. (Not that Russia really cares about NATO on its borders. See Finland)
Does Putin know this? I don't think he does at all and even if he did he would refuse to accept it. Putin's life literally depends upon Russia retaining the current Ukrainian teritry it holds. If / when it is forced back behind its pre 2013 borders, Putin is a dead man walking and he knows that. Best he avoid being near windows and drinking tea.
Kiev and Ukraine were gone from Russian sphere of influence the moment the 3 day special operation failed. The only question now is who will get to keep the occupied territories.
They have and it could be argued that it was the 2014 invasion of eastern Ukraine that he Ukraine fully turned its back on Russia.
Zelensky is playing a dangerous game by sticking pins in the russian bear with these recent drone strikes that served no useful purpose at all except to provoke Putin into retaliating
Absolute bullshit. So in your mind Putin can bomb, launch missiles etc., at Ukraine and not expect any retaliation.

Are you a Russian troll, because you sure talk like one?
Ukraine is continuing to grab people off the streets in order to fill its ranks. Russia has continued primarily volunteer recruitment after the mobilization. It seems that the demographic difference is severe enough for Ukraine to run out of willing manpower first. That having been said, an unwilling mobilized force can and will still fight. Running out of willing men isn't enough. And while people fled Russian mobilization people are also continuously fleeing Ukrainian mobilization. It was just much easier to get out of Russia. In Ukraine they're actively working to prevent mobilization-age personnel from leaving.
Of course Ukraine has compulsory enlistment now. What do you expect when it's fighting for its survival against an invader. If Russia is so good at volunteers enlistments, why did it have to draft 300,000 last year? Why did approximately 500,000 draft age individuals vote with their feet? Why did it recruit from prisons? Your claims that the Ukrainian population don't support the Zelenski govt war aims and would be willing to give up Ukrainian territory for peace ring hollow. If anything Russia's invasion, war crimes, and indiscriminate attacks on Ukrainian civilians, have hardened the peoples attitude against Russia and they will not accept the giving of 1mm of Ukrainian sovereign territory to Russia.
The big gain for Ukraine in this is that for a modest outlay they tie up significant RU forces to defend against these pin pricks, these are forces that then cannot be used else were. There is also the propaganda win as well. These pin pricks are a significant cost to the RU in terms of manpower and money, which they can ill afford.
There is also the political gains for Ukraine in this, because they are showing the Russian people and others that Putin and the Russian military cannot protect even Moscow from air attacks. This is the firts time that Moscow has suffered air attacks since 1943.
The Donbas region invited Putin in with open arms (as did Crimea years ago) so perhaps Zel should stop sulking and pouting and accept that fact..:)
Absolute rubbish. Putin orchestrated the whole affair using his well known bag of tricks. He did the same in Moldova and Georgia. It would be a minority who wanted the Russians there and it doesn't hide the fact that Putin's Russia unlawfully invaded the sovereign territory of other nations.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Frankly, I doubt the F-16’s will change anything at all. I still don’t entirely believe, like I said many months ago, they will get to Ukraine before this is over. This Reuters article outlines the timetable of actual commitments and the first few are scheduled to arrive “around New Year”:

Denmark will deliver 19 jets in total, with the first six due to be shipped to Ukraine around New Year, followed by eight in 2024 and five the following year, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said.

I am not sure, but this doesn’t sound realistic to me. Given the timing and how things are going on the ground, it seems that this is just another of those lets announce something and lift up the spirits that we have been through numerous times before in this conflict.

Discussed in the other thread, since it “timely” appeared, in regards to the fighting for freedom of all of us:

"We know that your freedom is our freedom. We also know that you need more" weapons, Frederiksen said during a joint press conference with Zelenskiy in the Skrydstrup airbase in Denmark.

Also relevant, but for the life of me I cannot find the article (pretty sure it was at Reuters as well) that indicated that the donation was conditional on pilot training, as well preparation of infrastructure in Ukraine, among other things. The latter isn’t necessarily going to happen. So you may still be right in your first assessment.


Of course it will. Moreover, as opposed to previous numerous reports of the “top” pilots being ready for quick training and the like, the reality is quite different (which isn’t surprising at all though):

Hecker added that the cadre of pilots undergoing F-16 training are very junior and will need seasoning to become proficient with the fighter—they “barely have any hours at all. So they’re not currently fighting in the war,” Hecker said.[…]

Whenever the F-16s do arrive in Ukraine, reaching proficiency will take even more time, Hecker warned.

“To get proficient in the F-16, that’s not going to happen overnight. You can get proficient on some weapons systems fairly quickly. But ones like F-16s, it takes a while to build … a couple squadrons of F-16s, and to get their readiness high enough, and their proficiency high enough. I mean, you’re talking, this could be four or five years down the road.”



I am also certain they all know it isn’t going to change anything. The main reason for these planes is the same as everything else that has been provided so far: to keep this going. In other words, sooner or later, Ukraine is going to run out of their own aviation due to it being destroyed, or they’ll simply run out of parts. It is, in part, reflected in the same article linked above:

Yet Hecker downplayed the significance the F-16s may have in helping Ukraine combat Russia’s invasion, saying the capability won’t be a “silver bullet” but will simply ease Ukraine’s use of air-to-ground weapons already being provided. His comments echo previous remarks from Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, who have said F-16s won’t be a “game-changer” or “magic weapon,” respectively.

“What the F-16 will give them is, it’s going to be more interoperable with the current weapons that we’re giving them now,” Hecker said. “Right now, weapons that we’re giving them have to be adapted to go on the MiG-29 or go on the Su-27, or something like that.”

The U.S. has provided Ukraine with weapons including the AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missile, which has been seen flying on Ukrainian MiG-29s, which Hecker called “a pretty capable aircraft.” However, Ukraine has asked Western nations for F-16s in part because the MiG-29 is a Russian design and parts are difficult to get to keep the fleet flying.


Some reports suggest that they are already extremely low in the aviation department, but also questionable statements in terms of drone strikes somewhat compensating for it:


With its ground forces advancing slowly, Ukraine is using drone strikes to expand its military’s reach as it waits for more advanced munitions and training — including greater air power, said Yuriy Sak, an adviser to Ukraine’s minister of defense.

“We don’t have the F-16s yet so we have to find way to make up for their absence and drones are somewhat used to compensate for the lack of aviation,” he said.


I say questionable for two reasons. First is, of course, their drone use is not compensating for the lack of aviation (not as Sak means it in the quote above anyway). Second is that the paragraphs quoted above are followed directly by the paragraphs discussing Ukrainian drone use on Russian territory. Another interesting tidbit in regards to the latter is mentioned in the previous article I cited above:

Importantly, F-16s won’t be able to “chase down” Russian aircraft over Russian territory, “because you’ll get shot by one of the Russian surface-to-air missiles,” Hecker said.

I find it interesting that even the choice of words gets looser as it goes on. On this note,

I wouldn’t necessarily bet on it, lol.
The F-16s will make a difference IF:
  • There are enough provided.
  • They aren't provided piecemeal.
  • They are fully supported without any hesitation.
They should have been provided 18 months ago and without reservation but Macron, Biden, and Scholz were to hesitant. Of the three, Biden is still far to hesitant and continues to leave Ukraine fighting with one hand behind its back. If he and Obama had stood up to Putin in 2014 we wouldn't need to be having this discussion.
 
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