The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[ImperatorOrbis]

Not really about what Russia is in a position to demand, more about what they will accept. I'm skeptical that they would ever willingly sign a peace deal that leaves the door open for NATO membership or stops short of giving them Crimea and the Donbass, given that these seem to be Russia's central war aims. If that's the case, the question is how does Ukraine impose these terms on them?

Not really following you, but after the war if Ukraine gives Russia occupied lands in exchange for peace (and as of now Russia would be more than happy to even get that), there is nothing stoping Ukraine from joining NATO like Finland did.

Putin knows he lost Kiev for ever. And Ukraine will NEVER sign a treaty that forbids it joining NATO/EU or it will just brake said treaty and join anyway. (Not that Russia really cares about NATO on its borders. See Finland)

Kiev and Ukraine were gone from Russian sphere of influence the moment the 3 day special operation failed. The only question now is who will get to keep the occupied territories.

 

[SinisterMinister]

As for political will... Russian political will was so weak that Russia relied on a mercenary force tens of thousands strong, recruiting from prisons, a literal penal legion. And that force then attempted a half-baked coup d'etat. What happens if the next coup d'etat is more effective, possibly handled by oligarchical interests from within? Or the opposite, "angry patriots" that decide they've had enough, and it's time to nuke the bridges across the Dnepr? Russian political willpower (i.e. political stability of the current course) is not a given. And Russian leadership has been ready to negotiate their way out of this war for over a year now. They're just not willing to negotiate from the position of defeat when they haven't really been defeated.

I think this misrepresents the role of Wagner and what happened with the coup. To me the use of Wagner represents the Russian state's unpreparedness for war and initial unwillingness to commit fully to that war. They were essentially used as a stop-gap measure due to the delay in declaring a mobilization. The power that Prigozhin gained speaks to Putin's strange willingness to tolerate alternative structures of power within the state and military. I don't see the Wagner coup as a threat to Putin per se; it's more like Prigozhin got extremely convinced by his own propaganda/ego and thought it would be possible to force Putin to give him control of the MOD. Once it became clear this wouldn't happen he had to back down. I don't see it as a precursor to any future coup d'etat, as it was military rather than political in nature, and Shoigu/Gerasimov won and consolidated their power.

Overall there is no organized anti-war faction in Russian politics. If there is a threat to Putin it is from the hardline right, and that represents a force toward escalation of the war rather than de-escalation. Oligarchical power has been thoroughly neutered throughout Putin's time in power, so I don't see it as a possible threat to him. Russian leadership is absolutely ready to negotiate their way out of the war and has been since the initial operation failed, but only on terms that suit them. I think there is a wide gap between these terms and what the current Ukrainian leadership would accept.

 

[Larry_L]

Some people would like us to stick our heads in the sand and allow Russia to gain land out of this. They have been snatching land from neighbors right along, and will continue unless they come up against a hard stop. They have been a bully in the Black Sea for years. If they are left with Crimea, and a land bridge to it the bullying will only get worse. I hear from many that we need to focus on China, and ignore Ukraine. Russia is playing the "Useful Fool" for China at the moment. If Russia is allowed to prevail that will only embolden China.

Here is a link to show what Russia really wants. They are hoping that Trump, possibly from his jail cell, will kill NATO so they can go after their lost empire. They are not quiet about what they want. They almost shout it from the rooftops.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1691061997951983616

 

[KipPotapych]

Here is a link to show what Russia really wants.

Sorry, but I have no idea why people take these silly posters/billboards/what have you and slogans aimed at internal audience of ultra-patriots and declare them to be actual goals (or vision, if you will?) of the country. Moreover, it is published in some outlets as the main reason for the urgent need to stop Russia because otherwise “see what will happen”; hence, Ukraine is the frontier, where Ukrainians are fighting for the entire “free world” to save us and so on. That’s just silly, in my opinion.

 

[Larry_L]

Sorry, but I have no idea why people take these silly posters/billboards/what have you and slogans aimed at internal audience of ultra-patriots and declare them to be actual goals (or vision, if you will?) of the country. Moreover, it is published in some outlets as the main reason for the urgent need to stop Russia because otherwise “see what will happen”; hence, Ukraine is the frontier, where Ukrainians are fighting for the entire “free world” to save us and so on. That’s just silly, in my opinion.

It may seem silly, but that is what they are feeding their population on a daily basis, as well as the children abducted from Ukraine. You see the same thing to a much lesser extent in the US during many unpopular wars. Each side feeds the other. The difference is Russia currently has no internal restraint. NATO was created around an idea. The current state is not ideal, although it does have promise. The idea is that most people can live well worldwide, especially those in NATO. The UN could be the same if an alternative to the veto situation could be implemented. Ukraine is not fighting for the free world. They are fighting for themselves, Russia's neighbors, and the idea that people can live well in relative freedom from oppression. In a sense they are also fighting for the Russian people.

 

[Stuart M]

Zelensky is playing a dangerous game by sticking pins in the russian bear with these recent drone strikes that served no useful purpose at all except to provoke Putin into retaliating-

View attachment 50737

Are you serious, you are complaining that Ukraine attacking Moscow is unfair.. that they should just lie back and take it ? In what world do you think that you can start a war and not expect retaliation, especially if your enemy is capable of it? Will you now suggest that Germany in WW2 should not have been bombed for fear of further retaliation from Germany?

 

[StingrayOZ]

I think this is wrong and western jets are almost guaranteed to turn up. Ukraine is going to run out of their stockpile of flyable Soviet jets eventually, likely sooner rather then later. Casualties aren't the only issue, availability of spares is another, resource on the engines and the airframe is a third.

Denmark 'open' to delivering F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine - minister

Denmark is "open" to the idea of sending fighter jets to Ukraine to help its war effort against the Russian invasion, the Danish defence minister said on Friday, according to state broadcaster DR.

www.reuters.com

goes to...

USA to approve sale of Danish F-16s to Argentina

Washington intends to approve the transfer of the American-made fourth-generation fighters from Denmark to Argentina, along with a number of P-3 Orion anti-submarine warfare turboprops from Norway.

www.flightglobal.com

Again. There are F-16's that could be given to Ukraine, that are in Europe, ready to go. But specifically. They will not be given to Ukraine. They will be given to.. Not Poland.. Not Lithuania.. But sold to Argentina!
Now with Denmark proving the the point. Why would any other country donate aircraft to Ukraine? It also deeply upsets the UK.

Giving F-16 to Ukraine causes a few problems.

• It emboldens hardline "recover all territory" Ukrainian views, because again, it seems like Ukraine will just keep getting more and more and better equipment.
• It will blow out the cost of supporting the war. Western nations will be under pressure to provide further support.
• Ukraine will then ask for more support to operate the F-16s. More AWAC, more ELINT, more smart munitions etc. Things that NATO aren't in great shape to offer. Or worse. Countries like Turkey will have to support, which requires more complex deals with Turkey.

I do understand Ukraine's position with regard to the old soviet gear, particularly jets. They won't fly forever.

Inertia is a great thing. Even if supports stops on the spot, Ukraine doesn't instantly collapse. Foreign aid has not been solely or even primarily American. Ukraine would be in trouble without US aid, but the Ukrainian state certainly wouldn't stop. European aid would still be coming, and existing stocks would allow for weeks if not months of resistance. Ukraine would probably start losing ground but even that not right away. It would also massively depend on Europe's reaction. A US pullout could push Europe to increase supplies. They probably can't replace US supplies completely, but they can do quite a bit. Presumably Trump wouldn't prevent European countries from buying US kit, which means replacement sales could boom. Countries could buy US kit and send their own older kit to Ukraine, so the US MIC would still be in play. For munitions countries could even do direct buys. In other words, Ukraine could lose some ground, but certainly wouldn't be out of the war completely.

Trump is Mr Quid Pro Quo and the very definition of chaotic. America has a fair bit of influence, particularly with western countries.

Certainly its in Ukrainian interests to diversify funding and equipment sources. Ukraine has inertia, but I am not sure if this allows for years or perhaps endless fighting, without American support.

Plenty of European wars have ended up in dug in positions and trench warfare where positions are hard. Combined with difficult winters, slow moving pace. Ukraine playing a war of wills and a battle of attrition with Russia is not a winning strategy. A long war results in Russia winning.

Arguably the best time for Ukrainian success is over the next ~12 months. After that, push hard for resolution.

If Russia is pretty shakey, Ukraine might be best to seek a ceasefire, create a buffer zone and wait for Putin to die, then roll in once that happens. If there is a decent Korean like ceasefire. Then west is more likely to give Ukraine more, to protect the peace and deter Russia.

Russia may have its own problems. If China goes to war with the US, it will mostly be its Navy. China however will be cut off from energy supplies. The Chinese people liberation army will be, basically sitting around as the PLAN fights in the waters off the coast. If only there was some sort of large coal and gas area just north of China, where it could get energy from.

 

[tonnyc]

Ukraine is continuing to grab people off the streets in order to fill its ranks. Russia has continued primarily volunteer recruitment after the mobilization. It seems that the demographic difference is severe enough for Ukraine to run out of willing manpower first. That having been said, an unwilling mobilized force can and will still fight. Running out of willing men isn't enough. And while people fled Russian mobilization people are also continuously fleeing Ukrainian mobilization. It was just much easier to get out of Russia. In Ukraine they're actively working to prevent mobilization-age personnel from leaving.

My interpretation differs. Russia has increased the age limit for mobilization. Increased the age limit for conscription. The Duma has made a law offering amnesty to prisoners willing to fight the war, turning what was once a Wagner recruitment policy into a general army one. Russia has by now implemented law making leaving the country illegal for mobilized and conscripted men and taken measures to prevent it.

These are not the actions of a state with sufficient people volunteering to fight. The actions Russia has taken strongly suggests that the state considers the pool of willing people insufficient. And given the expansion of the age pool and restrictions on leaving, they don't consider the previous conscription inputs sufficient either.

 

[KipPotapych]

Not sure if Feanor had posted it previously or not, but it appears we will (or may) finally see some Challengers on the battlefield as the 82nd Brigade may have been committed to action.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1691366396783890432

Def Mon previously reported that most of the prepared UA brigades have been commited to the offensive:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1690299316072587264

Forbes (I know, quality of their reporting sometimes desires better but his isn’t too bad) had earlier reported that the 82nd is UA’s most powerful unit. Given their kit, it is hard to argue.

Ukraine’s Powerful 82nd Brigade, Once Held In Reserve, Has Finally Joined The Counteroffensive

The deployment is good and bad news for Kyiv’s counteroffensive, which kicked off with coordinated assaults across southern and eastern Ukraine starting on June 4.

www.forbes.com

Swedish antitank mines in UA:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1691097201072861186

This is just a big boom from an exploding UR-77 (not sure why it says not found, at least to me right now, but the tweet and the video is there if you follow the link):

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1691115826643136513

A neat time-lapse of satellite imageries portraying the destruction of war over the two months in Rabotino and east of it:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1690803105040842752

 

[KipPotapych]

Russia has by now implemented law making leaving the country illegal for mobilized and conscripted men and taken measures to prevent it.

Even to Ukraine?

Sorry, just saw this post after submitting mine, so a quick note. Doesn’t that seem like common sense though that mobilized and conscripted personnel is not allowed to leave the country? I will also look into it because I did not see (or don’t remember) it running in the news.

Edit: To note, this is not the same as (and not even close to) preventing all men aged 18-60 from leaving the country. These are the only men in the age group who are allowed to leave Ukraine (via Google Translate):

Who can leave:

- people's deputies (my note: elected officials);
- parents with many children or single parents;
- men whom the medical commission considered temporarily or completely unfit for military service;
- reserved men (my note: this not the same as “reserves”);
- guardians of orphans;
- athletes and coaches of national teams;
- men who care for a sick relative (wife, mother, child)
- men involved in humanitarian transport;
- employees of the Ministry of Defense, Armed Forces of Ukraine, intelligence, SBU, National Police, GNSU or other law enforcement agencies;
- drivers who are licensed for international transportation of goods and passengers;
- men who accompany a group of children abroad for recreation and recreation.

From:

Общая мобилизация: кто и при каких условиях может пересечь границу

Некоторые мужчины могут выехать из страны во время мобилизации

telegraf.com.ua

This is what the current supposedly “crackdown” is about.

Edit 2: From a very quick look (it’s pretty late here, may look into it more tomorrow, though I believe this may be sufficient), there appears to be no new laws in regards to mobilized or conscripted personnel. The last mentions appear to be from the days of the “partial mobilization” last year and the references are to the existing law. Via Google Translate:

Since the adoption of the law in 1997, the essence of this paragraph has not changed. Therefore, when the decree on partial mobilization was issued on September 21, many people had a question whether citizens can now go on any trips, business trips, etc. Business began to ask how logistics would be carried out under these conditions.

Starting September 21, the military commissars of several districts issued orders of the same type, which stated that the storekeepers were forbidden to leave the municipalities where they live. However, since then, many of them have been corrected, and specifically in terms of the ban on leaving. Some documents were corrected several times, for example, at first a ban on leaving the country was indicated, and then this was also deleted.

[…]There were no official clarifications on these reports at the time of publication of the material. Moreover, the portal "Explain.RF", created with the support of the Russian government, to the question: "Can men of military age travel outside the region of residence and abroad?" - replies: "Under the conditions of partial mobilization, there are no restrictions on the movement of citizens of the Russian Federation."

According to some lawyers, the ban on traveling abroad may be contrary to current legislation. "The right of a citizen of the Russian Federation to leave the Russian Federation may be temporarily restricted only in cases provided for in Article 15 of the Federal Law "On the procedure for leaving the Russian Federation and entering the Russian Federation" - for example, in the event of conscription for military service (that is, such a decision should already be accepted, but it is accepted after passing a medical examination), - writes Pavel Chikov. - Therefore, we believe that the restriction on travel abroad is not provided for by law. Notices issued at the border with a travel ban can be appealed in court. "

Source: Частичная мобилизация: ездить можно, но не всем и не везде

 

[tonnyc]

Even to Ukraine?

Sorry, just saw this post after submitting mine, so a quick note. Doesn’t that seem like common sense though that mobilized and conscripted personnel is not allowed to leave the country? I will also look into it because I did not see (or don’t remember) it running in the news.

Heh. But really, previously no effort was made to prevent a conscripted person from leaving the country. Generally a conscripted person is allowed some time to take care of their affairs before going to the barracks and it was not a crime to leave the country during this time provided they come back and report for duty at the appointed time. A bill has passed the Duma making leaving the country illegal once the conscription notice has been sent and I expect Putin will sign it into law as soon as it reaches his desk.

 

[KipPotapych]

Heh. But really, previously no effort was made to prevent a conscripted person from leaving the country. Generally a conscripted person is allowed some time to take care of their affairs before going to the barracks and it was not a crime to leave the country during this time provided they come back and report for duty at the appointed time. A bill has passed the Duma making leaving the country illegal once the conscription notice has been sent and I expect Putin will sign it into law as soon as it reaches his desk.

I added the second edit to my previous post before seeing this one, haha. There may be something new that somehow skipped by me, but I doubt this is the case.

 

[KipPotapych]

Before I check out for the night, forgot to post another tidbit from earlier today. This one is from the CNN and it shows some footage of the drone striking the Crimean bridge back in July, as well some footage of the drone (or the like, rather) itself, some comments from the head of SBU, etc. Might be interesting to some.

 

[Mainframe]

Zelensky is playing a dangerous game by sticking pins in the russian bear with these recent drone strikes that served no useful purpose at all except to provoke Putin into retaliating-

Are you serious, you are complaining that Ukraine attacking Moscow is unfair.. that they should just lie back and take it ? In what world do you think that you can start a war and not expect retaliation, especially if your enemy is capable of it? Will you now suggest that Germany in WW2 should not have been bombed for fear of further retaliation from Germany?

Zelensky's drone strikes on Moscow were like pinpricks for all the good they did except to enrage Putin and give him the excuse to hit back.
Zel should stop it and get round the negotiating table to work out a ceasefire, it wouldn't be difficult.
As regards WW2, the Allies didn't stick any little pins in Germany, they went the whole hog..
"When I look round to see how we can win the war I see that there is only one sure path...and that is absolutely devastating, exterminating attack by very heavy bombers from this country upon the Nazi homeland"
-Winston Churchill July 1940

 

[Mainframe]

..the original plan was 3 days to Kiev. Russia is suffering greatly in all possible ways.

We'll have to wait for all the books and Hollywood movies that'll come out after the war to get a clear picture of what was going through Putin's mind..
At first sight he goofed bad by dispersing a lot of his troops along the northern border but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt by assuming his main objective was not Kiev or the occupation of the whole of Ukraine, but was to kick the Russians out of the Donbas region and then occupy more territory to link up with Crimea.
Therefore his operations in the northern Kiev sector could just have been a feint to draw some Russians away from Donbas.
Below is the currentish situation, Vlad is sitting pretty so I'm sure he'd be willing to negotiate a ceasefire.
The ball is therefore now in Zel's court..

 

[vikingatespam]

Beats me why Putin invaded on a wide front dispersing many of his troops in the north instead of simply surgically pincering out the pro-Russian Donbas with armoured spearheads in blitzkrieg style down the red arrows like in the diagram below.....

Putin wanted the whole enchilada. Regime change, replacing the government with a UKR Lukashenko. Now, it would appear the best Putin can hope for is to squat on whats left of his stolen territory and try and wait out the political will of the west to arm UKR.

Hard to tell how this ends, but both UKR and RU are losing.

 

[vikingatespam]

Zelensky is playing a dangerous game by sticking pins in the russian bear with these recent drone strikes that served no useful purpose at all except to provoke Putin into retaliating-

Putin is already doing Putin. RU has not been holding back all (see the almost daily cruise missile attacks). The drone strikes on Moscow are morale boosters and reminders that RU needs to keep a hefty set of air defenses present.

 

[vikingatespam]

Zelensky's drone strikes on Moscow were like pinpricks for all the good they did except to enrage Putin and give him the excuse to hit back.

Putin hasnt need an excuse to "hit back". He has been "hitting back" for over a year. See all the destroyed infrastructure, the mass graves, the apartment seeking RU cruise missiles. Etc. Etc.

Zel should stop it and get round the negotiating table to work out a ceasefire, it wouldn't be difficult.

And where is this middle ground that both sides can agree to ? Neither side is willing to talk in a way other than maximalist demands.

 

[vikingatespam]

We'll have to wait for all the books and Hollywood movies that'll come out after the war to get a clear picture of what was going through Putin's mind..

To know Putins intent, all we have to do is look at the initial distribution of forces. He wanted the whole thing.

At first sight he goofed bad by dispersing a lot of his troops along the northern border but I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt by assuming his main objective was not Kiev or the occupation of the whole of Ukraine, but was to kick the Russians out of the Donbas region and then occupy more territory to link up with Crimea.

It wasnt a feint. You dont "feint" by sending up such a substantial proportion of your forces through a radioactive wilderness and then have them stuck in place on shitty roads for a month, with thier thumb up their ass. A "feint" doesnt include sending your best troops (the VDV) on a one way ticket to Valhalla in an attempt at a decapitation strike.

Putin thought the UKR government would fold quickly. What a colossal screw up.

 

[Mainframe]

..And where is this middle ground that both sides can agree to ? Neither side is willing to talk in a way other than maximalist demands..

Well Putin could openly declare to the world- "I regard the conflict as being at an end because I've liberated and secured the pro-Russian Donbas and have established a territorial link with the Crimea"
Zelensky could then say "Okay let's have a ceasefire and end hostilities".
Maybe they should call in a third party like Trump to finalise the ceasefire, he's already publicly said "I could end the war in 24 hours"..