I think this is wrong and western jets are almost guaranteed to turn up. Ukraine is going to run out of their stockpile of flyable Soviet jets eventually, likely sooner rather then later. Casualties aren't the only issue, availability of spares is another, resource on the engines and the airframe is a third.
Denmark is "open" to the idea of sending fighter jets to Ukraine to help its war effort against the Russian invasion, the Danish defence minister said on Friday, according to state broadcaster DR.
www.reuters.com
goes to...
Washington intends to approve the transfer of the American-made fourth-generation fighters from Denmark to Argentina, along with a number of P-3 Orion anti-submarine warfare turboprops from Norway.
www.flightglobal.com
Again. There are F-16's that could be given to Ukraine, that are in Europe, ready to go. But specifically. They will not be given to Ukraine. They will be given to.. Not Poland.. Not Lithuania.. But sold to Argentina!
Now with Denmark proving the the point. Why would any other country donate aircraft to Ukraine? It also deeply upsets the UK.
Giving F-16 to Ukraine causes a few problems.
- It emboldens hardline "recover all territory" Ukrainian views, because again, it seems like Ukraine will just keep getting more and more and better equipment.
- It will blow out the cost of supporting the war. Western nations will be under pressure to provide further support.
- Ukraine will then ask for more support to operate the F-16s. More AWAC, more ELINT, more smart munitions etc. Things that NATO aren't in great shape to offer. Or worse. Countries like Turkey will have to support, which requires more complex deals with Turkey.
I do understand Ukraine's position with regard to the old soviet gear, particularly jets. They won't fly forever.
Inertia is a great thing. Even if supports stops on the spot, Ukraine doesn't instantly collapse. Foreign aid has not been solely or even primarily American. Ukraine would be in trouble without US aid, but the Ukrainian state certainly wouldn't stop. European aid would still be coming, and existing stocks would allow for weeks if not months of resistance. Ukraine would probably start losing ground but even that not right away. It would also massively depend on Europe's reaction. A US pullout could push Europe to increase supplies. They probably can't replace US supplies completely, but they can do quite a bit. Presumably Trump wouldn't prevent European countries from buying US kit, which means replacement sales could boom. Countries could buy US kit and send their own older kit to Ukraine, so the US MIC would still be in play. For munitions countries could even do direct buys. In other words, Ukraine could lose some ground, but certainly wouldn't be out of the war completely.
Trump is Mr Quid Pro Quo and the very definition of chaotic. America has a fair bit of influence, particularly with western countries.
Certainly its in Ukrainian interests to diversify funding and equipment sources. Ukraine has inertia, but I am not sure if this allows for years or perhaps endless fighting, without American support.
Plenty of European wars have ended up in dug in positions and trench warfare where positions are hard. Combined with difficult winters, slow moving pace. Ukraine playing a war of wills and a battle of attrition with Russia is not a winning strategy. A long war results in Russia winning.
Arguably the best time for Ukrainian success is over the next ~12 months. After that, push hard for resolution.
If Russia is pretty shakey, Ukraine might be best to seek a ceasefire, create a buffer zone and wait for Putin to die, then roll in once that happens. If there is a decent Korean like ceasefire. Then west is more likely to give Ukraine more, to protect the peace and deter Russia.
Russia may have its own problems. If China goes to war with the US, it will mostly be its Navy. China however will be cut off from energy supplies. The Chinese people liberation army will be, basically sitting around as the PLAN fights in the waters off the coast. If only there was some sort of large coal and gas area just north of China, where it could get energy from.