The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[T.C.P]

Regaridng the Bridgehead that the UKR got underneath the Antonivskyi bridge. According to Rybar and other Russian Mil bloggers claim that Ukr is using the bridge as a shelter. The Russians cant seam to dislodge them from the postion, because Ukr moved in advanced EW systems thats taking out the lancet and the FPVs. Their EW systems also seem to be effective in stopping Russian GPS glide bombs and to make it even worse UKR moved their S-300 systems to that position, so the Russians are running out of options-

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673773866982809600

@Feanor in such a case can't Russia use an Iskander to take otu the position. I know they are running low on those, but they should have enough to take out such an important bridgehead no?

 

[seaspear]

Is it correct that Ukraine has stopped releasing water from dams further north in the Dnieper further drying out previously flooded areas?

 

[vikingatespam]

Much was discussed around who benefits from the dam being blown. We might have the answer. It appears Ukraine benefits. There is now a Ukrainian foothold near the Antonov bridge, and according to Rybar Ukrainian S-300s have been forward deployed, and EW is apparently interfering with Russian loitering munitions being used in the area. Pontoon units have also reportedly been spotted. It appears to be preparation for a cross-river push. It remains to be seen how this plays out, but if this is accurate, it means the destruction of the dam did nothing to prevent Ukraine from attempting this. It's also important to note that with the dam intact and under Russian control, Russia could release water from the Kahovskiy reservoir to wash away Ukrainian pontoon bridges downstream.

I would humbly suggest you have illustrated why the Russians had the greatest motive. Without a standing hard bridge across the Dnepr, any UKR efforts are solely raids, or efforts to tie down RU resources. UKR has no way to logistically supply a large force across the Dnepr at this point, and efforts to create pontoon bridging near the A. bridge will likely fail due to the RU artillery in range, just as RU efforts were hindered last year. Moving up of the UKR S-300 batteries is likely simply an effort to support the small force on the other side.

 

[Feanor]

I would humbly suggest you have illustrated why the Russians had the greatest motive. Without a standing hard bridge across the Dnepr, any UKR efforts are solely raids, or efforts to tie down RU resources. UKR has no way to logistically supply a large force across the Dnepr at this point, and efforts to create pontoon bridging near the A. bridge will likely fail due to the RU artillery in range, just as RU efforts were hindered last year. Moving up of the UKR S-300 batteries is likely simply an effort to support the small force on the other side.

I think there are two pieces. Initially the argument was made that blowing the dam made it impossible to cross by either boat or ground vehicle. This is clearly not the case. After the dam is blown and the water level goes down, Ukraine crosses. The second piece is that before the dam was blown pontoon bridges could be placed just as easily as after at least from what I know. But with the dam intact Russia could do controlled water releases to wash away pontoon bridges. With no dam in place, the pontoon bridge is subject to strikes, of course, but not a one-time destruction of the entire thing with minimal effort.

 

[vikingatespam]

I think there are two pieces. Initially the argument was made that blowing the dam made it impossible to cross by either boat or ground vehicle.

Hold on - it was impossible to cross, for some time. Just like when the Germans blew the Roer dams in 1945, the initial flood made crossing impossible. Now, after the blown dam, you have no hardball crossing, and trying to cross above or below the dam on foot or wheel is likely to fail due to mud flats and lack of cover.

This is clearly not the case. After the dam is blown and the water level goes down, Ukraine crosses.

Sure.....over water, via boats, just like they could of done if the dam wasnt blown. They didnt need to blow the dam to do that.

The second piece is that before the dam was blown pontoon bridges could be placed just as easily as after at least from what I know. But with the dam intact Russia could do controlled water releases to wash away pontoon bridges. With no dam in place, the pontoon bridge is subject to strikes, of course, but not a one-time destruction of the entire thing with minimal effort.

Im not sure enough water could be released to flood out the pontoons, which would ride any slow water crest. I cant say for sure though.

There is also the matter of the Russians apparently not allowing any third party inspectors on the remains of the dam.

 

[Feanor]

Hold on - it was impossible to cross, for some time. Just like when the Germans blew the Roer dams in 1945, the initial flood made crossing impossible. Now, after the blown dam, you have no hardball crossing, and trying to cross above or below the dam on foot or wheel is likely to fail due to mud flats and lack of cover.



Sure.....over water, via boats, just like they could of done if the dam wasnt blown. They didnt need to blow the dam to do that.



Im not sure enough water could be released to flood out the pontoons, which would ride any slow water crest. I cant say for sure though.

There is also the matter of the Russians apparently not allowing any third party inspectors on the remains of the dam.

You're still trying to debate who blew the dam. I'll happily revisit this with you in a few years. Right now it seems Ukraine intends to cross the Dnepr.

 

[KipPotapych]

Much was discussed around who benefits from the dam being blown. We might have the answer. It appears Ukraine benefits. There is now a Ukrainian foothold near the Antonov bridge

Rozhin clarifies that the position under the bridge is on the island, 3.8 km from the actual left bank. Map is attached in the Telegram post. The map is in Russian, but the position is indicated in blue above the red (Aleshki) in the middle.

Colonelcassad

По высадке ВСУ у Антоновского моста важно уточнить, что это высадка на острова, точнее, на остров Антоновский. Прилагаю карту, красным цветом отмечены острова в дельте Днепра. Острова с осени в серой зоне. После наводнения смыло секреты, позиции, минные поля. технически, до левого берега с...

t.me

Edit: As for the dam, even the Yanks aren’t making any concrete statements beyond that the responsibility is on the Russians because they shouldn’t be there in the first place, or something along the lines.

Edit 2: A reference in regards to the above:

Press Gaggle by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre En Route Palo Alto, CA | The White House

Aboard Air Force One En Route Palo Alto, California 12:39 P.M. EDT MS. JEAN-PIERRE: Hello. Okay. Hi, everybody. Happy

www.whitehouse.gov

Q: Using drone footage, AP reporting suggests Russia was likely behind the dam that exploded in Ukraine. Does the U.S. government believe that Russia is the most likely culprit? And if so, what repercussions should Russia face?

A: …And I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it here: Look, it’s — Russians had control over the dam. No — they had no business being there in the first place. They bear ultimate responsibility for the destruction caused by this war.

In my opinion, that “AP drone footage” doesn’t suggest anything.

 

[Feanor]

@Feanor in such a case can't Russia use an Iskander to take otu the position. I know they are running low on those, but they should have enough to take out such an important bridgehead no?

They would have to launch from Crimea, but yes in theory that can be done. We haven't seen much use of such weapons against battlefield targets, but in principle it would seem appropriate. So far Russia seems to be relying on their new favorite, the gliding bombs.

 

[swerve]

Is it correct that Ukraine has stopped releasing water from dams further north in the Dnieper further drying out previously flooded areas?

Stopping the release of water from higher dams could be because with the Kakhovka dam gone, there's no purpose to releasing water. It won't top up the lake to feed irrigation canals, for example. It'll just run out to sea. Keep it where it is & it can be used for water supply & generating electricity.

And unless they release enough to cause a flood, which would be foolish in terms of water management, it won't stop the drying out of areas flooded by the breaching of the dam.

 

[ngatimozart]

Whoever knows the language, is this Chinese or Korean? These are 152mm shells in Russian service. Either way this is our first confirmation of deliveries from either one.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

EDIT: Given that the charge is Iranian, some commentators are suggesting that these are Chinese shells that were supplied to Iran and are now making their way to Russia. This would make sense to me.

EDIT2: MoscowCalling thinks they're from Syria, again Chinese re-export.

Moscow calling

Китайский 152-мм снаряд для Type 66 (клон Д-20), и иранский заряд для этой же гаубицы, где-то в зоне СВО. Китайские снаряды, вероятно, поставлены реэкспортом из Сирии.

t.me

I saw a report a few weeks back on Twitter claiming that PRC military vehicles have appeared in Russia.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666441410306768899

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1666441413200846849

It gives Ukraine a bad possibility, a dam over their heads gives them no possibility. I don't mean an offensive, just a diversionary attack, something bigger than an incursion.

Do you have sources to support this? You haven't offered any verifiable evidence to back your claims.

Much was discussed around who benefits from the dam being blown. We might have the answer. It appears Ukraine benefits. There is now a Ukrainian foothold near the Antonov bridge, and according to Rybar Ukrainian S-300s have been forward deployed, and EW is apparently interfering with Russian loitering munitions being used in the area. Pontoon units have also reportedly been spotted. It appears to be preparation for a cross-river push. It remains to be seen how this plays out, but if this is accurate, it means the destruction of the dam did nothing to prevent Ukraine from attempting this. It's also important to note that with the dam intact and under Russian control, Russia could release water from the Kahovskiy reservoir to wash away Ukrainian pontoon bridges downstream.

Рыбарь

❗️ Вылазки ВСУ на левом берегу Днепра: бои у Антоновского моста обстановка к исходу 27 июня 2023 года В районе Антоновского моста продолжаются боестолкновения с подразделениями ВСУ, закрепившимися под остатками переправы у Дач на берегу Днепра. Сегодня авиация ВКС России пыталась нанести удар...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/27/20230627214644-a7453c34.jpg

This Ukrainian source supports this.

ISW update showing UKR operations on four sectors along the front.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673885306280624130

Swedish supplied CV9040C with spectral camouflage in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673474612078706690

Ukrainians have bolted MLR onto a Humvee.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1669815883491844096

 

[rsemmes]

Regaridng the Bridgehead that the UKR got underneath the Antonivskyi bridge. According to Rybar and other Russian Mil bloggers claim that Ukr is using the bridge as a shelter. The Russians cant seam to dislodge them from the postion, because Ukr moved in advanced EW systems thats taking out the lancet and the FPVs. Their EW systems also seem to be effective in stopping Russian GPS glide bombs and to make it even worse UKR moved their S-300 systems to that position, so the Russians are running out of options-

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673773866982809600

@Feanor in such a case can't Russia use an Iskander to take otu the position. I know they are running low on those, but they should have enough to take out such an important bridgehead no?

What about good old artillery fire? It is a fixed position, no need for new toys, just a lot of ammo.
Those artillery units are going to be EW/SAM defended and any MRL is going to be moving around.

 

[rsemmes]

Do you have sources to support this? You haven't offered any verifiable evidence to back your claims.

The Sword of Damocles, Aspern-Essling?

I don't know if it was more difficult to cross it before or after, but I know that I does not make military sense to create a bridgehead when everything can be flooded behind your back.

 

[rsemmes]

And one more question...

Vietnam/Israel. The Soviet Union was defending against those air operations, an educated guess would be that they have been training to carry out those operations; they have the means for that.
Launching missiles from land and sea, airborne EW; decoys; air missions and fake air missions from north, east and south. Why Russia hasn't attacked 8 bridges over the Dnieper? That would be a lot more effective than any rhetoric. Why is Russia so shy now? They are going to lose planes? Of course, it's a war.
Obviously, I haven't been in any "STAVKA" meeting, I don't know under what guidelines they are acting, but I am surprised by this inaction.

 

[T.C.P]

What about good old artillery fire? It is a fixed position, no need for new toys, just a lot of ammo.
Those artillery units are going to be EW/SAM defended and any MRL is going to be moving around.

The bridge they are sheltering under is giving them adequate protection from artillery for now. Russia will need to bring a lot of arty asset to prevent further advances, but they are struggling to dislodge them from the bridge head without higher calibre munitions.

 

[Feanor]

Update on Zaporozhye.

It appears that Ukrainian forces have gained some positions between Rovnopol' and Staromayorskoe. There are reports of a Ukrainian proving attack towards Priyutnoe. There was also apparently another failed attack at Novodonetskoe. Finally on the Orekhov axis, we have reports of Ukrainian probing attacks towards Rabotino but nothing significant. Pyatihatka remains allegedly contested. It appears Ukraine is gaining ground, slowly and painfully, in the Vremyevskiy bulge area. The question is whether Ukraine will run out of steam before they can achieve some sort of operational impact. Recent announcements of additional Bradleys and Strykers for Ukraine are clearly meant to replace some of these losses, but there will be a time delay, and training personnel will also take time.

Рыбарь

❗️ Времьевский выступ обстановка по состоянию на 17.00 28 июня 2023 года В районе Времьевского выступа три ротные группы 35 обрмп и 128 обр ТРО на нескольких ББМ и БМП закрепились в районе западнее Старомайорского. Чуть севернее заняли позиции члены 31 омбр ВСУ из Ровнополя. Судя по...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/28/20230628164155-7744e70c.jpg

Рыбарь

❗️ Контрнаступление ВСУ: Ореховский участок обстановка по состоянию на 10.00 28 июня 2023 года На Ореховском участке Запорожского направления украинские формирования продолжают редкие вылазки на позиции российских войск. ▪️Пятихатки по-прежнему находятся в серой зоне. Ночью ВСУ предприняли...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/28/20230628095740-242af451.jpg

Ukrainian forces apparently retreating after a failed attack at Novodonetskoe.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Piles of assorted footage of destroyed and abandoned Ukrainian vehicles near Novodonetskoe, including the AMX-10RC, likely the same we saw previously. This is all likely the 37th MarBde.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Брошенный AMX-10RCR в Новодонецком. @milinfolive

t.me

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженная техника 37й бригады ВСУ в Новодонецком.

t.me

Рыбарь

Брошенный AMX-10RCR в Новодонецком. Фото от наших подписчиков из армейского спецназа. Военный Осведомитель

t.me

Russian Ka-52 strikes on the Vremyevskiy bulge. Note the terrible image quality. This is likely from near maximum range.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian FPV drones striking targets, Zaprozhye area. We have what looks like a T-72 or T-80 with K-5, and extra side-screens, as well as some sort of Ukrainian MRAP.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian column getting hit in Zaporozhye area.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Allegedly a Ukrainian column hitting landmines.

Colonelcassad

Полным ходом по минному полю. Кадры самоубийственной атаки ВСУ полным ходом по минному полю. Что же могло пойти не так? PS. Также "Архангел Спецназа" сообщает, что 429-й мсп ВС РФ отбил утром очередную атаку ВСУ, уничтожив 5 единиц техники. Противник успеха не имел.

t.me

Russian 2S4 ops, Zaporozhye area.

Colonelcassad

Гвардейский миномёт "Тюльпан" работает по боевикам ВСУ на Запорожском направлении Видео: @rusich_army

t.me

 

[rsemmes]

The bridge they are sheltering under is giving them adequate protection from artillery for now. Russia will need to bring a lot of arty asset to prevent further advances, but they are struggling to dislodge them from the bridge head without higher calibre munitions.

If they can shelter under the bridge, it's not a bridgehead.
Yes, a lot of tubes and a lot of ammo, as I said, to keep it under fire 24/7; even if half the time is just H/I fire.

 

[rsemmes]

There's a big difference between a concrete bunker and a dam.

Yes, thank you, I have seen one and the other.
I have read about bombs/missiles with rockets to dig themselves and neutralize airstrips. The divers cannot go one night, dig a hole and then come back to finish the job, too risky; what I don't know is if the engineers have charges able to do that job. Today, I guess they can do better than piling kegs of powder.
Someone mentioned double-hollowcharges, what size? Can 4 of them crack the wall and let the pressure of the water finish the job?
Yes, a lot easier to do it from inside.

 

[vikingatespam]

And one more question...

Vietnam/Israel. The Soviet Union was defending against those air operations, an educated guess would be that they have been training to carry out those operations; they have the means for that.
Launching missiles from land and sea, airborne EW; decoys; air missions and fake air missions from north, east and south. Why Russia hasn't attacked 8 bridges over the Dnieper? That would be a lot more effective than any rhetoric. Why is Russia so shy now? They are going to lose planes? Of course, it's a war.
Obviously, I haven't been in any "STAVKA" meeting, I don't know under what guidelines they are acting, but I am surprised by this inaction.

In regards to the Dnepr bridges, I have heard such reasons as "RU will need them later" or "too tough to destroy by air (apparently built that way). I cannot say for sure. I wouldnt be surprised if some of those bridges are under Patriot/NASAMS protection.

 

[Feanor]

In regards to the Dnepr bridges, I have heard such reasons as "RU will need them later" or "too tough to destroy by air (apparently built that way). I cannot say for sure. I wouldnt be surprised if some of those bridges are under Patriot/NASAMS protection.

They've only been under Patriot/NASAMS protection recently. I suspect the difficulty of destroying them is the real issue. Russia has ways to strike deep and penetrate air defenses, but generally with only some munitions. So you could in theory pound a single bridge with dozens of inbounds and eventually render it inoperable. On the other hand consider the Antonov bridge. It was in artillery range. Yet it took what, over a month of hitting it to get Russia to give up? And even then the bridge wasn't fully destroyed. Just made logistics across it difficult enough to not be worth-while.

 

[ngatimozart]

The Sword of Damocles, Aspern-Essling?

I don't know if it was more difficult to cross it before or after, but I know that I does not make military sense to create a bridgehead when everything can be flooded behind your back.

I was being polite asking for sources. They are a requirement here and are part of the rules which all posters are required to familiarise themselves with, so i strongly suggest that you read them.

Yes, thank you, I have seen one and the other.
I have read about bombs/missiles with rockets to dig themselves and neutralize airstrips. The divers cannot go one night, dig a hole and then come back to finish the job, too risky; what I don't know is if the engineers have charges able to do that job. Today, I guess they can do better than piling kegs of powder.
Someone mentioned double-hollowcharges, what size? Can 4 of them crack the wall and let the pressure of the water finish the job?
Yes, a lot easier to do it from inside.

No need for the bolshie attitude.

FYI when a Moderator posts using green ink, it means that they are being polite and requesting that whatever they action want is done. When we use red ink it means that action will be done or consequences will follow if Moderators instructions aren't followed. We issue warnings in red ink as well and we can and will escalate from there is required. It's your choice how you proceed on here.