The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Capt. Ironpants]

Three things.

1. On June 22, this resolution was introduced in the US Senate:

U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) today introduced a resolution to respond to the Russian Federation delivering tactical nuclear weapons to the Republic of Belarus. This is the first time Russia has deployed nuclear warheads beyond its borders since the fall of the Soviet Union, and represents a serious threat to global security in the midst of the war in Ukraine.

Graham and Blumenthal noted their resolution holds that any use of a tactical nuclear weapon by Russia, Belarus or their proxies, or the destruction of a nuclear facility that disperses radioactive contaminants into NATO territory would be viewed as an attack on NATO itself, requiring an Article V response.

Link:

Graham, Blumenthal Introduce Resolution To Address Threat Of Russian Tactical Nukes

WASHINGTON – U.S. Senators Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) and Richard Blumenthal (D-Connecticut) today introduced a resolution to respond to the Russian Federation delivering tactical nuclear weapons to the Republic of Belarus. This is the first time Russia has deployed nuclear warheads...

www.lgraham.senate.gov

Video of their press conference on CSPAN:

Senators Graham and Blumenthal News Conference on Russian Nuclear Threats

Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) held a news conference on Russian tactical nuclear threats.

www.c-span.org

2. As I'm sure we've all seen in the news, both sides have been accusing the other of planning some sort of nuclear incident, and have for quite some time, although this appears to have stepped up in the past few weeks. Examples:

Zelenskyy urges world to heed Ukraine’s ‘terror’ attack warning

President slams ‘countries pretending to be neutral’ after warning Russia could be planning nuclear plant assault.

www.aljazeera.com

Russian spy chief flags 'suspicious' Ukrainian nuclear activity

One of Russia's top spymasters said on Monday he hoped that the U.N. nuclear watchdog and the European Union would look into Ukrainian nuclear activity that he said might signal Kyiv was working on a "dirty bomb".

www.reuters.com

Russia asks IAEA to ensure Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant security

Russia urged the International Atomic Energy Agency on Friday to ensure Ukraine does not shell the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, saying it was otherwise operating safely.

www.reuters.com

3. The US has provided a network of radiation sensors to Ukraine, and some Ukrainian military elements have been conducting exercises for protection in case of radiation release or nuclear or biochemical attacks:

U.S. Wires Ukraine With Radiation Sensors to Detect Nuclear Blasts (Published 2023)

The federal National Nuclear Security Administration is setting up an advanced network that can verify an attacker’s identity.

www.nytimes.com

Some Ukrainian telegram channels received information that in the Kherson region, military personnel from the 124th, 126th and 406th brigades of the Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted exercises for radiation, chemical and biological protection:

Украина.ру

В некоторые украинских телеграмм каналах поступила информация о том, что на территории правобережной части Херсонской области военнослужащие из 124, 126 бригады теробороны, а также 406 отдельной артиллерийской бригады ВСУ провели учения по радиохимической и биологической защите. ◽️В течение...

t.me

Okay, all that is normal enough. American politicians posturing, looking tough, sending stern warnings to Russia (the usual stuff they do). Russians and Ukrainians trading accusations, each claiming the other is planning some fiendish nuclear thing or other. Nothing new there! The radiation sensors are reportedly new, but nothing more than a precaution. I imagine elements on both sides have drilled for nuclear attacks/radiation leaks before. No alarm bells there.

The thing I worry about is this: Suppose some stray thing that goes boom strikes the nuclear plant. Or there's some accidental radiation leak. No matter who shoots it off, or how accidental a leak might be, the Russians will be blamed by the US. And Article V is immediately invoked? I hope no such thing happens in any case, of course. That Senate resolution bugs me for a few reasons.

 

[Stampede]

So your a Russian soldier on the frontline in occupied Ukraine.
Your listening to the news of the last week and are chatting amongst your colleagues knowing that the The Ukrainian forces are starting to push hard.

How committed are you to this war?



Cheers S

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Like everyone I am still confused. I have some speculations that are not worthy of airing in this thread. I do wish to leave you with a picture of Prigozhin as he leaves Rostov. I saw it in several different posts, and it haunted me until I found it back here in RFE. His expression looks .......... satisfied???

Vilnius Urges Beefed-Up NATO If Prigozhin In Belarus

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda on June 25 warned that if Belarus is to host Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, then NATO must strengthen its eastern flank.

www.rferl.org

I personally feel that NATO's flank is pretty well covered by article five, and whatever troops that are in the field.

I agree, but Lithuania has always been a bit touchy about these things. Okay time for a bit of comic relief here. It's apparent the Baltics (and Poland) are not exactly pleased with their new neighbors in Belarus (Vlad's nukes and cast-off loose cannon). Well, who can blame them? But when I was skimming through the headlines and saw some of these stories I couldn't help but think "Who do they think Prigozhin is, Slim Pickens?"

 

[Rob c]

Apologies, since the question was aimed at me, I assumed it was an actual query rather then something rhetorical.

My apology also, on reflection it was not the best of wording

 

[Redlands18]

Australia pledges $110m in new military support for Ukraine, including vehicles and ammunition (msn.com)
Australia has pledged another $110m worth of support for Ukraine, incl
28 M-113
14 Special ops vehicles
28 Man 40M trucks+14 trailers.
105mm Artillery ammo.
$10M aid to the Ukrainian Humanitarian Fund

The Hawkei is still unavailable due to an ongoing technical issue (brakes) with the vehicles.

 

[Feanor]

My apology also, on reflection it was not the best of wording

Don't worry about it. I'm not the most pleasant of people under the best of circumstances. And these are not the best of circumstances.

 

[KipPotapych]

Just reading back, as there were a couple of posts I wanted to reply to (one or two were addressed to me directly), but cannot find them at the moment.

Putin's older, & also seems to have health issues.

I don’t believe I read any substantiated reports that this is the case. In fact, there were reports over time that he is in a much better shape than an average person his should be. Last summer, Burns seemed to agree:

Vladimir Putin is “entirely too healthy,” CIA Director William Burns said Wednesday, throwing cold water on constant rumors that the Russian president is suffering from illness as he pursues his war on Ukraine.

Burns, speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, noted that his declaration was “not a formal intelligence judgment.” Still, given his position, Burns’ comment could help dampen hopes among Putin’s adversaries that the Russian’s demise is near.

CIA director: Putin 'too healthy'

William Burns' comment is a blow to Putin's critics who believed the Russian leader was ill.

www.politico.com

 

[T.C.P]

Apparently Ria novosti published a video today of Shoigu visiting a base in Ukraine. Regardless of if its recent or not, it shows that publicly Kremlin is showing that he is not under house arrest and still in charge.

There was a telegraph article today that Piro backed down because of threats to his family and the families of his inner Wagner circle. Considering how quiet he has been over the last day, there might just be some truth in it.

Also nothing but unverified chatter so far that VKS bombed some Wagner posts in Syria today.

 

[Feanor]

Apparently Ria novosti published a video today of Shoigu visiting a base in Ukraine. Regardless of if its recent or not, it shows that publicly Kremlin is showing that he is not under house arrest and still in charge.

There was a telegraph article today that Piro backed down because of threats to his family and the families of his inner Wagner circle. Considering how quiet he has been over the last day, there might just be some truth in it.

Also nothing but unverified chatter so far that VKS bombed some Wagner posts in Syria today.

The video is apparently pre-mutiny. We will have to wait a little longer for any decisive information.

Рыбарь

А вот, кстати, и пятничный пост Бориса Рожина о визите Шойгу в Белгородскую область. Так что, да, видео рабочей поездки Министра обороны в группировку войск «Запад» — «консерва». #ВСРФ #Россия #ЧВК @rybar Поддержать нас

t.me

 

[OPSSG]

There was a telegraph article today that Piro backed down because of threats to his family and the families of his inner Wagner circle. Considering how quiet he has been over the last day, there might just be some truth in it.

Also nothing but unverified chatter so far that VKS bombed some Wagner posts in Syria today.

1. After what Wagner has done to prisoners, I would say that this is entirely Russian in approach. The Russian Wagner Group is destabilising the humanitarian sector in Ukraine, Syria and Africa. This is interesting as a dog bites owner moment. With Prigozhin failing to understand that he is the dog .

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673184964228300800

2. Clear that Putin at 70 is out of touch, weak, easily bamboozled — the polar opposite of the image the strong-man leader has carefully cultivated over his decades at Russia’s helm. In a military front already marked by confusion and mismanagement, Wagner’s turning on the Russian military leadership spells even further problems for the country’s war effort — as the Ukrainian Army begins its spring/summer counter attack. The truths we can see are, as follows:

​

(a) the incredible dysfunction, and corruption of the Russian Federation forces tasked with security at the border;​

​

(b) everyone is aware of the problem with the central authority and that is why no one at the border was willing to fight Wagner. They all waited for leadership (which was not shown).​

3. Except for tactical aviation, Wagner was mostly unopposed in its drive towards Moscow.

4. IIRC, the 2nd "Taman" Guards Motor Rifle Division and the 4th "Kantemir" Guards Tank Division were the guardians of the Kremlin; but they have been destroyed in Ukraine.

5. In this case, by demonstrating that the Kremlin was undefended, Putin humiliated himself. There was no organised resistance to the Wagner drive to Moscow. In a modern middle power military (like Poland or South Korea), or even a small tri-service military (eg. Sweden, Finland, or Denmark):

​

(a) a single NATO standard FAC team would be able to destroy 1/3 of the Wagner convoy with fast jets — but none were called for CAS; or​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672669059861676034

​

(b) forward observers supported by 2 BTG sized block forces, using mines & artillery, would have wounded hundreds in the Wagner convoy and started a delay battle. The Russian level of military incompetence in their plans to defend the Kremlin cannot be explained.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524851252860837888

6. It seems the ego of Prigozhin is larger than common sense — Wagner was organised but the convoy to Moscow had too few troops to succeed. Prigozhin communicated with Putin via the Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office Anton Vaino & Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev. In the greater scheme of power, Putin is really concerned about who is really feeding this dog, as it is no longer under the control of the owner, Arkady Rotenberg.

7. The Wagner PMC center in Novosibirsk has resumed recruiting people for the private military company. Advertising posters were again hung at the entrance to the center. But if you understand how mafias work, Yevgeny Prigozhin and some of his close associates are dead men walking. If you do not humiliate Putin — you must kill him, or he will kill you.

 

[koxinga]

Wagner is still useful to the regime in due to the on-going campaign and it will suicide to disband Wagner now.

But question has to be asked, whether Prigozhin himself has outlived his usefulness. He is not irreplaceable and I am sure someone in his inner circle would be more than happy to replace him and be pliant to Putin.

 

[KipPotapych]

Happy birthdays, Capt. Ironpants!


Thinking back now to what happened over the couple or so days of the chef’s shenanigans, it is still not easy to digest.

One thing that is fairly clear is that it was a not a coup attempt that didn’t pan out since there doesn’t appear to had been an objective to overthrow the man in charge. Among other things, the run to Moscow may have ended with “what then?”, meaning what happens when we get there. I am not entirely (or at all) convinced there was a plan beyond Rostov and, perhaps, a bit of a run. So the guy may have taken the best out for his personal interests. Did he betray Putin? I am not sure. He did cause a lot of inconvenience at a very bad time, but did he really betray him? Putin’s message was pretty strong, but it could have been targeted partially at the internal audience and partially at the chef? He didn’t sound paranoid, but in fact very composed and confident (unlike, for example, the speech he gave prior to invading Ukraine - I have never seen him that way or after, for that matter).

He really put an accent (in his very Putin way) on the “internal betrayal” in his address and pointed out that “betrayal is what we are facing now and personal ambitions and interests lead to treason”.

Bombing Wagner positions, and especially in Syria, makes zero sense. The latter directly contradicts Russian interests. So does the former. No sense in doing that.

Having Prigozhin’s and other Wagner families under a gun is also not a very convincing argument. Everyone was aware, at least to some degree, to the possible outcome of their actions.

The fact that the Americans are now stating that they somewhat knew of Prigozhin’s plans.. but the Russians didn’t? It is also not very convincing.

The chef may have thought he is worth more than what he actually is. I wonder, when was the last time he actually spoke to Putin and got his attention?

Or, I saw reports that Poland is increasing their border security. It would be dumb of Ukraine not to. Yet again, was all this necessary to send some Wgner troops to Belarus? Probably not - way too much trouble/losses (actual and the image) and likely could have been done otherwise.

What throws the whole thing off is the stated goals, the means to reach them, and the expectations/outcome do not line up. At all. Or someone is really dumb and/or opportunistic, which does not necessarily describe the actors in play.

The simplest explanation is the correct one they say. Following that approach suggests Prigozhin is dumb.The issue is he probably isn’t.

Interesting.

 

[Capt. Ironpants]

Happy birthdays, Capt. Ironpants!


Thinking back now to what happened over the couple or so days of the chef’s shenanigans, it is still not easy to digest.

One thing that is fairly clear is that it was a not a coup attempt that didn’t pan out since there doesn’t appear to had been an objective to overthrow the man in charge. Among other things, the run to Moscow may have ended with “what then?”, meaning what happens when we get there. I am not entirely (or at all) convinced there was a plan beyond Rostov and, perhaps, a bit of a run. So the guy may have taken the best out for his personal interests. Did he betray Putin? I am not sure. He did cause a lot of inconvenience at a very bad time, but did he really betray him? Putin’s message was pretty strong, but it could have been targeted partially at the internal audience and partially at the chef? He didn’t sound paranoid, but in fact very composed and confident (unlike, for example, the speech he gave prior to invading Ukraine - I have never seen him that way or after, for that matter).

He really put an accent (in his very Putin way) on the “internal betrayal” in his address and pointed out that “betrayal is what we are facing now and personal ambitions and interests lead to treason”.

Bombing Wagner positions, and especially in Syria, makes zero sense. The latter directly contradicts Russian interests. So does the former. No sense in doing that.

Having Prigozhin’s and other Wagner families under a gun is also not a very convincing argument. Everyone was aware, at least to some degree, to the possible outcome of their actions.

The fact that the Americans are now stating that they somewhat knew of Prigozhin’s plans.. but the Russians didn’t? It is also not very convincing.

The chef may have thought he is worth more than what he actually is. I wonder, when was the last time he actually spoke to Putin and got his attention?

Or, I saw reports that Poland is increasing their border security. It would be dumb of Ukraine not to. Yet again, was all this necessary to send some Wgner troops to Belarus? Probably not - way too much trouble/losses (actual and the image) and likely could have been done otherwise.

What throws the whole thing off is the stated goals, the means to reach them, and the expectations/outcome do not line up. At all. Or someone is really dumb and/or opportunistic, which does not necessarily describe the actors in play.

The simplest explanation is the correct one they say. Following that approach suggests Prigozhin is dumb.The issue is he probably isn’t.

Interesting.

Thank you for kind wishes!

You have made many interesting observations and points and I wish I were not in such a hurry to leave on a short trip.

Re your closing statement, I'm an Occam's Razor kinda gal, but ran into the same contraction myself.

This guy at a hawkish Chinese site gives an interesting resolution to that contradiction, but not sure I buy most of it (you'll have to use Google or Siri translate):

瓦格纳“暴走”事件，大叛乱还是真人秀？-尤金少将-观察者网

凭借着这次“叛乱”，普京和他的政治盟友们在几乎没有付出任何利益的情况下完成了对各方势力的试探和敲打，进一步强化了自身统治与决策的合法性。

m.guancha.cn

 

[Feanor]

5. In this case, by demonstrating that the Kremlin was undefended, Putin humiliated himself. There was no organised resistance to the Wagner drive to Moscow. In a modern middle power military (like Poland or South Korea), or even a small tri-service military (eg. Sweden, Finland, or Denmark):

​

(a) a single NATO standard FAC team would be able to destroy 1/3 of the Wagner convoy with fast jets — but none were called for CAS; or​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672669059861676034

​

(b) forward observers supported by 2 BTG sized block forces, using mines & artillery, would have wounded hundreds in the Wagner convoy and started a delay battle. The Russian level of military incompetence in their plans to defend the Kremlin cannot be explained.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1524851252860837888

Maybe there was no intent to destroy Wagner and the strikes, very limited, by single aircraft, were meant to halt not destroy the convoy? Maybe there was knowledge that this wasn't a coup but something else? I don't know but it's not clear what exactly was going on. Most of what Wagner AA shot down weren't strike jets or attack helos. It doesn't look like Russian leadership wanted Wagner destroyed.

EDIT: As I'm catching up on some stuff, it appears Ukraine launched another series of attacks during these events and is inside Rovnopol', at the cost of another destroyed batch of vehicles, including a handful of Bradleys (6 allegedly) and an IMR-2. Note in addition to attacks at the Vremyevskiy bulge, there was a repulsed Ukrainian attack towards Rabotino and another one at Makarovka. That's where the Bradleys were destroyed. We also know a new Ukrainian unit entered the fight since we have a destroyed XA-180, this is our first sighting of them in Zaporozhye. Previously they were used near Donetsk but that was some time ago. This is a fairly rare vehicle in Ukrainian service. Overall this excitement could account for the scarcity of Russian helos and jets available to bomb Wagner's columns.

Рыбарь

❗️ Времьевский выступ обстановка по состоянию на 16.00 26 июня 2023 года Украинские формирования опубликовали кадры из села Ровнополь на севере Времьвского выступа: населенный пункт под противником. ▪️Учитывая туман войны и обрывочные сведения с мест, точно передний край мы установить не...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/06/26/20230626153919-1e529ece.jpg

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Очередная колонна ВСУ, забитая на Запорожском направлении в районе Малой Токмачки. Всего потеряно 6 БМП "Брэдли" и одна инженерная машина ИМР-2.

t.me

Russian 136th MRBde T-80BV destroys two Ukrainian vehicles at Makarovka, allegedly Kipri MRAPs. Note based on how this went it appears Makarovka is a sort of no-mans land where the Ukrainian vehicles were attempting to unload infantry.

Песнь пехоты / INFANTRY SONG

Работа бронегруппы БТГр «Колибри» 136 ОМсБр в обороне на Южнодонецком направлении (н.п. Макаровка). Примечательно что Дрон камикадзе только стряхнул пыль нашему танку, который отработал и спокойно, с довольным хоботом уехал в район дозарядки.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Some footage from Kaskad btln in Novodonetskoe where they show off a mengerie of destroyed MRAPs, including Mastiffs, Husky TSVs, and Kipris.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A column of 4 destroyed MaxxPros, Zaporozhye.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Another Ukrainian MRAP hit in Zaporozhye. Reportedly it hit a landmine and was finished off by an ATGM.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

EDIT2: A pretty grim video of another failed Ukrainian breach effort by the 47th Bde. We can see one destroyed vehicle with a mine trawl (HMBV?) and a knocked out Bradley. A second Bradley is collecting casualties. We can see at least one service member not moving, and another missing his foot. The video is going to disappear from the VK link due to it's nature.

EDIT3: I'm blind. That's an MBT, probably T-72M1, with a mine trawl.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Агент СБУ Бутусов в рамках разгона зрады выложил кадры провалившейся атаки ВСУ на Запорожском направлении, где наши пожгли американские БМП "Брэдли". Тактикульный прыг на мину с оторванной ногой прилагается. 18+

t.me

 

[T.C.P]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14jlz7l
This is an intense video, a Bradely rescuing Ukr soldiers who are hit by artillery and mines. Its a very clear cut video and at the end, the medic jumps down and is immeditaely hit by a mine blast. He loses his leg, but the absolute freaking champion does not panic and puts the tourniquet on himself. This is absolutely the single most bad ass thing I have ever seen. His leg is blown off but he does not panic and goes into full professional mode. The level of training and competence of this man has me at awe!

 

[T.C.P]

Putin's address is out-

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673410921811570695

It seems a bit mild.

Also Piro made a statement-

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673348348068126721

Wagner cannot legally operate from russia, But Luka gives him the authority to run his PMC out from Belarus. So he retains his autonomy.

 

[OPSSG]

I don't know but it's not clear what exactly was going on. Most of what Wagner AA shot down weren't strike jets or attack helos. It doesn't look like Russian leadership wanted Wagner destroyed.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673347792226402309

1. It’s been so confusing these few days. @Feanor, I like your honesty.

​

(a) Prigozhin needed Putin for his drive to Moscow to succeed, and Putin demurred. We’ll see what happens to Prigozhin and Wagner now, but even though he faced down the threat, Putin comes out of this mess looking badly wounded.​

​

(b) Prigozhin recorded his first audio message after his U-turn from Moscow. Prigozhin also says Wagner planned to transfer their military equipment to MoD in Rostov on 1st July, but then a missile attack was performed on their camps. In his 1st response after the U-turn, Prigozhin says about 30 mercenaries died — earlier he said about "thousands" of losses).​

​

(c) Prigozhin confirms that initial Wagner assault units had deployed and set up artillery south of Moscow, and were ready to start shooting. “They decided that demonstration of the protest was enough, and turned around.” Clear that at that point, Prigozhin reached the conclusion that his drive to Moscow was about to become a contested, and did not have the nerve to start the civil war.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673409493823094784

2. Putin says the uprising was "doomed to fail" and that "its organizers, even though they lost their sense of right and wrong, couldn't have failed to realize that." But then, Putin also admitted that Russian airmen were killed by Prigozhin during his blackmail/mutiny, but that both them and the mutineer Wagnerites were heroes in the end — I can’t make sense of it, except to laugh at him. Putin said almost nothing, speaking for just 5 minutes. And nothing newsworthy.

3. The most powerful people in Russia make up the Siloviki—an elite with close ties to state security, the police, the investigative committee and other agencies. The term translates to "people of force" or "strongmen."

(a) The Siloviki can’t be happy with both Putin & Prigozhin. If Prigozhin is able to relocate Wagner as a PMC to the Ukraine-Belarus border region — without Wagner recruiting being banned from recruitment in Russia, it would mean he still has cards to play.​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1673365820745953280

(b) In Africa, Russia has a pole position in the competition with other players thanks to Wagner which is why it cannot be dismantled without harm to Russian interests. Currently, Prigozhin is able to realize his minimalist goal — the preservation of his life, freedom and wealth.​

​

4. Importantly, the 3 choices in Putin statement are (a) exile to Belarus (for 8,000 who took part), (b) demobilization, or (c) absorption into the regular armed forces via signing contracts — this all seems far from over. Previous independent reports say that Prigozhin had with him 8,000 loyal troops for the mutiny and not 25,000, as he claimed.

5. It is this 8,000 Prigozhin is wants to relocate to the Ukraine-Belarus border region.

6. The lesson for the war in Ukraine is clear. Putin is more likely to negotiate and end his war if he is losing on the battlefield, not when there is a stalemate. Those who have argued that Ukraine must not attack Crimea for fear of triggering escalation must now reevaluate that hypothesis.

7. When faced with the difficult decision of trying to stop Wagner mercenaries with major force, Putin backed down. In this game of chicken, Putin swerved off the road. He didn't escalate. He didn't need a face-saving off-ramp to declare victory. When facing the possibility of really losing to Wagner mercenaries coming into Moscow, he instead capitulated.

8. The intelligence about Prigozhin's plans within the US was briefed on a-need-to-know basis and only to the most senior US administration officials (as well as the Gang of Eight members of Congress).

 

[vikingatespam]

If Wagner relocates his 8K troops to BEL., then this appears to remove them from the war.* I cant think there is any serious plan to try the Kiev axis again.

Assuming Im not totally crazy, this is a win for UKR.

* barring the tin foil hat conspiracy that he is being relocated into BEL in order to facilitate a future RU takeover.....

 

[Feanor]

If Wagner relocates his 8K troops to BEL., then this appears to remove them from the war.* I cant think there is any serious plan to try the Kiev axis again.

Assuming Im not totally crazy, this is a win for UKR.

* barring the tin foil hat conspiracy that he is being relocated into BEL in order to facilitate a future RU takeover.....

Prigozhin claimed, when talking about Wagner's casualties, that he had 35k Wagner fighters pre-war, and recruited another 50k prisoners. Allegedly he lost 10k KIA of each kind. Granted some of the wounded are not recoverable. But some are. He should have a fighting force substantially larger then 8k. Maybe even substantially larger then 25k. Subtracting 8k weakens it but what really weakens it is the disbanding of the organization. Wagner showed itself able to act well as a coherent fighting force.

 

[InterestedParty]

Wagner is still useful to the regime in due to the on-going campaign and it will suicide to disband Wagner now.

But question has to be asked, whether Prigozhin himself has outlived his usefulness. He is not irreplaceable and I am sure someone in his inner circle would be more than happy to replace him and be pliant to Putin.

Wagner is pulling in a lot of money in Central African Republic and other countries which they are propping up in order to get access to their natural resources such as oil and diamonds. I dont know who apart from Prigozhin is sharing in this wealth but I am sure that there are many powerful people who dont want to cut him off completely