1. We need to remember the fundamentals on a mercenary group, like the Wagner PMC.
2. I have no evidence but I believe, in the next 14 to 28 days, 30% of Wagner PMC will want to look for an exit from the Prigozhin train to straight to hell.
3. Putin has been forced to speak to the Russians on TV. What Putin really fears is betrayal in his inner circle & not the side show called Prigozhin. Given that Putin’s speech is not favourable to Yevgeny Prigozhin, I wish him good luck surviving in the next 3 months. As the screws are tightened by MVD, more fighting should occur — to cheers in Ukraine.
4. Uncertain what is really happening on the ground with the coup attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner in Russia. But there are things we know:
(a) Months ago, Prigozhin fell out of favour in Moscow & his patron, Arkady Rotenberg. There is a slim chance that coups like this can turn into civil wars. Or not. The information quality is low. But there is an airwaves battle for unit and soldier loyalty that Putin can easily win.
(b) In April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months." If Wagner have been able to move hundreds of kilometres with heavy equipment, over a main highway towards Moscow, should definitely be concerning for the Russian government.
(c) Within a month or two, this Wagner coup will fail. This is interesting as a dog bites owner moment. With Prigozhin failing to understand that he is the dog & the owner, Rotenberg is keen to shoot a rabid dog in the St. Petersburg gang — to pacify Putin (as mafia boss).
5. Putin is not concerned about the dog, Prigozhin — in the greater scheme of power. He is really concerned about who is really feeding this dog, as it is no longer under the control of the owner, Arkady Rotenberg.