The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

John Fedup

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Vivendi said:
Some thoughts from General Hodges -- I think he is spot-on: Wagner Mutiny: What Is to Expect? | European Resilience Initiative Center (european-resilience.org)

I think this "Wagner rebellion" can at least create a lot of new counter-offensive opportunities for Ukraine -- the "best case" scenario would be that this rebellion will weaken Russia so much that they simply pull out of Ukraine.
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The Chinese reaction to this will be interesting, can’t really see them abandoning Putin or as the general remarked, “cheap Russian gas”.
 
ngatimozart

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Well Kadyrov has already chosen a side and he has no love for Prigozhin. The former Russian PM Mikhail Kasyanov (2004 - 2008), when speaking to DW, said that if Putin doesn't put this mutiny down within 2 days, it will be the end of Putin's regime. He said that Putin started his regime collapse when he invaded Ukraine.
 
S

swerve

Super Moderator
I don't know what'll happen, of course, but I think the most likely outcome is Prigozhin strung up & Wagner disbanded, with parts kept functioning under new leaders. What I'm hoping is that it reduces the effectiveness of Russia's fighting forces, partly by the disbandment of Wagner & partly by causing the morale of Russian soldiers to fall even more. A purge of those who didn't try hard to stop Prigozhin could be very disruptive.

Fingers crossed.
 
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vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
John Fedup

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
OPSSG said:
1. We need to remember the fundamentals on a mercenary group, like the Wagner PMC.

2. I have no evidence but I believe, in the next 14 to 28 days, 30% of Wagner PMC will want to look for an exit from the Prigozhin train to straight to hell.

3. Putin has been forced to speak to the Russians on TV. What Putin really fears is betrayal in his inner circle & not the side show called Prigozhin. Given that Putin’s speech is not favourable to Yevgeny Prigozhin, I wish him good luck surviving in the next 3 months. As the screws are tightened by MVD, more fighting should occur — to cheers in Ukraine.

4. Uncertain what is really happening on the ground with the coup attempt by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner in Russia. But there are things we know:

(a) Months ago, Prigozhin fell out of favour in Moscow & his patron, Arkady Rotenberg. There is a slim chance that coups like this can turn into civil wars. Or not. The information quality is low. But there is an airwaves battle for unit and soldier loyalty that Putin can easily win.​
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(b) In April and May, Prigozhin lied about the alleged ‘projectile famine,’ the 1st and 7th Assault Squads have a huge stockpile of MANPADS. A source from Prigozhin's security service said that preparations for this scenario took more than 2 months." If Wagner have been able to move hundreds of kilometres with heavy equipment, over a main highway towards Moscow, should definitely be concerning for the Russian government.​
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(c) Within a month or two, this Wagner coup will fail. This is interesting as a dog bites owner moment. With Prigozhin failing to understand that he is the dog & the owner, Rotenberg is keen to shoot a rabid dog in the St. Petersburg gang — to pacify Putin (as mafia boss).​

5. Putin is not concerned about the dog, Prigozhin — in the greater scheme of power. He is really concerned about who is really feeding this dog, as it is no longer under the control of the owner, Arkady Rotenberg.
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Given the horrible performance of the Russian military can we really expect excellent performance by Russian security forces in dealing with Prigozhin? What will the average Russian soldier do given the C-F show in Ukraine? Line up and die for Vlad? Are troop losses even worse than reported and are are civilians now becoming aware? One result is Putin’s capos May feel emboldened to do something about Don Vlad. The next 24-48 should indicate how this plays out.
 
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A

Arji

Active Member
Surely there's a sizable unit between Wagner and Moscow that could potentially stop their advance, right? Twitter gave the impression that Wagner just speed through the highway all the way to Moscow without much resistance (granted they haven't reach Moscow area yet) (Word is, they have now).
 
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vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Arji said:
Surely there's a sizable unit between Wagner and Moscow that could potentially stop their advance, right? Twitter gave the impression that Wagner just speed through the highway all the way to Moscow without much resistance (granted they haven't reach Moscow area yet).
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Trainees ? Cadets ? Police ? The one T-34 we saw at the May Victory day parade ? RU is mostly all in UKR.
 
Feanor

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
vikingatespam said:
Trainees ? Cadets ? Police ? The one T-34 we saw at the May Victory day parade ? RU is mostly all in UKR.
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This isn't even close to true. Russia has plenty of troops that aren't in Ukraine. However they are either state security forces, or conscript-staffed units. The question isn't whether Russia has troops. The question is whether those troops can put up the kind of fight that can stop tens of thousands of experienced mercenaries from taking the capital.
 
A

Arji

Active Member
Feanor said:
This isn't even close to true. Russia has plenty of troops that aren't in Ukraine. However they are either state security forces, or conscript-staffed units. The question isn't whether Russia has troops. The question is whether those troops can put up the kind of fight that can stop tens of thousands of experienced mercenaries from taking the capital.
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Wait a minute how big is the convoy? I find it hard to believe that many men able to advance down a well known highway whilst the enemy have firm air superiority.
 
Feanor

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
It appears combat has started. A Ka-52 was attempting to strike Wagner forces, we have a SAM launch (allegedly a Strela-10) from Wagner against it.

t.me

Moscow calling

Тот же инцидент с другого ракурса - ЗРК "Стрела-10" "Вагнеров" пускает ракету по вертолёту Ка-52 ВКС, но последний отстреливает тепловые ловушки, и ракета промахивается мимо цели. Место инцидента - район развязки М-4 "Дон" и ул. Димитриева (51.644013, 39.301062). Судя по всему, как минимум, до...
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EDIT: A Ka-52 got shot down.

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Allegedly a government Il-18 shot down by Wagner.

t.me

Moscow calling

Предположительно, Ил-18 (либо самолёт-разведчик Ил-20 или воздушный командный пункт Ил-22М на его базе) сбитый в Воронежской области. Жизни русских бойцов, с обеих сторон. Вот она - цена пиздежа, коррупции, безнаказанности и несменяемости ворья и некомпетентностей, которых "заметали под ковер"...
t.me t.me

Someone presumably accidentally hit a parking lot near an apartment building in Voronezh.

t.me

Moscow calling

Прилёта в жилой двор на улице Адмирала Чурсина в Воронеже. Повреждены 11 автомобилей, предварительно, обошлось без пострадавших. Какая именно из сторон конфликта ударила по живому двору, пока неизвестно.
t.me t.me

A giant Wagner column near Voronezh. We see a Pantsyr-S1 with the AESA active, protecting the column. There's also a Strela-10 but it's on a trailer. We also have a couple of BMP-2s, and a couple of T-72B3 mod'16s. Mostly it's a giant column of trucks and pickups.

t.me

Moscow calling

"Нас не застрелят, блять?" Предположительно, колонна техники "Вагнеров" на подъезде к Воронежу. В колонне функционирующий ЗПРК "Панцирь-С1", танк Т-72Б3 и несколько БМП на танковом транспортере, но в основном - грузовики, пикапы и гражданские авто.
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Wagner forces in Rostov.

t.me

Colonelcassad

"Ростовский Цирк".
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t.me

Colonelcassad

Резонно замечается, что танки «Вагнера» с чехлами на пушках. @belarusian_silovik
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t.me

Colonelcassad

В районе штаба ЮВО в районе 8 утра ситуация спокойная.
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t.me

Colonelcassad

В центре Ростова будет изменена схема движения общественного транспорта. Также в городе отменили несколько мероприятий.
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t.me

Colonelcassad

Понаехали тут. А у меня работа.
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t.me

Росич | Rosich

ЧВК «Вагнер» в Ростове на Дону @rosich_ru
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Wagner MANPADS teams in Rostov.

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Civilians with Wagner fighters in Rostov.

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Chechen fighters from Akhmat formation entering Rostov-na-Donu.

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Russian Border Guard and state security forces in Voronezh at a border checkpoint apparently just let Wagner through. Granted this is old news.

t.me

GREY ZONE

На пограничном переходе «Бугаевка», который расположен в Воронежской области ещё 180 российских солдат и сотрудников силовых ведомств согласились не препятствовать действием русских добровольцев из «Группы Вагнера» и сложили оружие @grey_zone
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Checkpoints and roadblocks near Moscow.

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Road destruction near Lipetsk to block the road to Moscow.

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Feanor

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Arji said:
Wait a minute how big is the convoy? I find it hard to believe that many men able to advance down a well known highway whilst the enemy have firm air superiority.
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Huge. The issue seems to be that they're moving quickly, mixing in with civilian traffic, and also have SAM coverage. I don't have time for a full update, but I'll try to get more info by the evening.
 
R

Redshift

Active Member
Feanor said:
This isn't even close to true. Russia has plenty of troops that aren't in Ukraine. However they are either state security forces, or conscript-staffed units. The question isn't whether Russia has troops. The question is whether those troops can put up the kind of fight that can stop tens of thousands of experienced mercenaries from taking the capital.
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It's just almost unbelievable that this is happening, this could be the plot of a film ... It doesn't sound like real life in any way.
 
Capt. Ironpants

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Feanor said:
This isn't even close to true. Russia has plenty of troops that aren't in Ukraine. However they are either state security forces, or conscript-staffed units. The question isn't whether Russia has troops. The question is whether those troops can put up the kind of fight that can stop tens of thousands of experienced mercenaries from taking the capital.
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FlightRadar24 has been quite interesting today. It appears troops are arriving from various regions. Busy, busy skies. What kind of fight they can put up against the Wagners is questionable in my mind, too, but you are the expert, not I.

Now I could well be wrong, but the impression I got from reading through various Russian Telegram channels last night/early morning is that we were not alone in wondering if this was some sort of theatre. Many wondered why their columns were allowed to speed along M4 unhindered, etc.

Some speculated that this gave Putin the perfect excuse to declare martial law and various reasons this benefited him and so on. Moving along to the youtubes, the Military Summary guy at first thought it was all about a reason for total mobilization to counter the recent Ukrainian mobilizations. He starts explaining why he thought so at the 16:15 mark here:


Many questioned the video of the alleged strike on the Wagner camp by Russian forces, and found it unconvincing. I am a bit confused as to exactly when this supposedly occured. My question is this: I can understand they could quickly form a plan (splitting up, taking control of certain institutions and military installations, taking strategic positions around Rostov-Na-Danu, etc.), but would it not take time to load up and organize those columns? I am just a civvie, so I really don't know. All I know is something seems off.

Some speculate it was all about money, as Shoigu refused to renew Wagner's contract which expired at the end of May, and there he was surrounded by 25,000 mercenaries he could not pay. Prigozhin did post a photo of boxes in Rostov-Na-Danu which he claimed were full of rubles meant to pay his guys but stolen/withheld by Shoigu, so that leads some credence to that theory. It was likely not the only reason, but seriously, if true, talk about a Fatal Error on the part of Shoigu! And on Putin's part for allowing their to expire with no renewal. It's like not feeding the pet tiger you keep inside your home.

Anyway, some seem to think that negotiation is possible (or did before Putin's TV address) while others were astonished more moves were not made to nip this rebellion in the bud (unless it was just theater). It really is like a B grade action movie, all very surreal. But sometimes odd things are very real but just seem surreal to us.
 
Capt. Ironpants

Capt. Ironpants

Active Member
Musashi_kenshin said:
https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1672658620671041540

Supposedly Wagner is heading back.

This is completely bizarre. Is Putin seriously going to pretend this never happened? If he does then he's given the signal to anyone that they can undermine his authority. If he doesn't then is Prigozhin willingly going to the chopping block having only just staged a mutiny?
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That's quite the development, if true. Reportedly, at Putin's request, Lukashenko has spent hours negotiating with Prigozhin and is the hero of the hour (give that old guy a cape):

t.me

Пул Первого

⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️ Сообщение пресс-службы Президента Республики Беларусь. Сегодня утром Президент России Владимир Путин проинформировал своего белорусского коллегу о ситуации на юге России с частной военной компанией Вагнер. Главы государств договорились о совместных действиях. В развитие...
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The deal includes security guarantees for the Wagner mutineers and their ageement to stop all movement and avoid bloodshed. There are other reports that charges against Prigozhin have been dropped, but no official confirmation, so I'll leave those out. Question mark for now.

Now what happens to Shoigu and Gerasimov?

EDIT: Judging by developments with video evidence, this deal (or something like it) is for real (see latest posts here):

t.me

Colonelcassad

Авторский канал Бориса Рожина - эксперта Центра военно-политической журналистики. № 4776867015 Мой блог: http://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/ Голосовать за канал: t.me/boost/boris_rozhin Разбаны: https://t.me/razban_colonelcassad_bot
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