The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update on Zaporozhye.

Reportedly Ukraine has managed to take the village of Makarovka, but was then pushed back by a Russian counter-attack. The village remains contested. Russian positions in Urozhaynoe are holding. There have been exchanges of fire around Novodonetskoe but no new Ukrainian push there. There are also reports of Ukrainian reinforcements heading towards the area. Finally reportedly Russian elements of the 127th MRD are counter-attacking towards Neskuchnoe as well. All in all we have heavy losses of vehicles, unclear but likely also heavy losses in personnel with gains in the questionable form of several villages. Three are clearly in Ukrainian hands, one is contested, one was recaptured by Russia.


Interesting footage of what appears to be the work of the 336th MarBde's artillery (or possibly ATGM teams?). They're striking Ukrainian vehicles. The person talking appears to be a forward observer calling out targets.


Another Ukrainian attacking column got destroyed in a minefield. This time we have 3 HMBVs taken out, along with 2 Leo-2A6s, 1 Bergenpanzer ARV (possibly was trying to recover some of the vehicles), 2 Bradleys, and a MaxxPro MRAP.


A Ukrainian Humvee shooting up a tree line (unclear if there are any actual targets there) and then gets hit, possibly a landmine.


2 Leo-2A6s, apparently abandoned, possibly immobilized or knocked out.


A rare Russian remote minelayer, the Zemledelie. Note this is effectively a modern MLRS with packet reloading, but only for land mines.


Russian Ka-52 operations, Zaporozhye. It seems clear at this point that Russia should discontinue purchases of the Mi-28N and focus on the Ka-52.


Two Ukrainian SUVs hitting land mines. We can also see some Humvees driving around. Allegedly this is a Ukrainian recon element.


Russian 40th MarBde near Novodonetskoe has captured two knocked out MRAPs, an Husky TSV and a Mastiff.


Russian loitering munition strike on a Ukrainian Husky TSV or Oshkosh M-ATV. Note the observer UAV spots an entire group of Ukrainian vehicles parked, including a pickup and I think a MaxxPro. It's also clear the loitering munition doesn't fully destroy the vehicles, through undoubtedly does some damage. We can see at least one Ukrainian soldier dead or wounded on the ground after the strike. To me this would have been a perfect opportunity for an artillery strike as both cheaper and more effective, with the loitering munition used to finish off any vehicles that manage to get away, but instead we just see the one loitering munition strike. This suggests poor coordination between Kaskad btln, who are doing the strike, and supporting artillery assets.


Russian loitering munition strike on a Ukrainian Husky TSV or Oshkosh M-ATV but this time while moving. Note it might be one of the ones from above. This time the loitering munition appears to do more damage, so it's possible the first strike was using a smaller munition.


Another video of Ukrainian infantry bailing out from a knocked out Bradley. This is likely from the same mess we saw with several Bradleys and a Leo-2A6.


A Ukrainian Buk getting hit in Zaporozhye. It's possible Ukraine decided to pull it closer to the front to try and counter Russian attack helos.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Apr. 26th-27th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Apparently 2 Ukrainian M777s getting hit, Kherson region. We can see it firing, and the gun crew in the first video, but post-strike it's hard to tell what the effect is.


Close up of a damaged Ukrainian M777 howitzer in Kherson region. Possibly the same as above.


Reportedly 4 missiles hit Nikolaev, speculation is that they may have been S-300 missiles.


Oskol Front.

Russian T-90M firing near Svatovo. Note the angle of the barrel, this is clearly indirect fire.


Allegedly Russian Krasnopol' strike against a Ukrainian staging area in Kharkov region.


Russian airstrike in Nevskoe, Lugansk region.


Ukrainian P-18 getting hit, Kharkov region, allegedly by a loitering munition.


LDNR Front.

Allegedly a Ukrainian MBT near Artemovsk/Bakhmut getting hit by Wagner, and its ammo cooking off leading to a massive explosion.


Ukrainian ambulatory wounded getting evacuated on a YPR-765, Artemovsk/Bakhmut area.


Retreating Ukrainian forces blew another building in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


A look at the ruins of private houses surrounding Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Russian SpN-directed night strikes against alleged Ukrainian positions near Avdeevka.


Russian air strike in Ugledar.


Kaskad btln destroyed a Ukrainain ST-68U radar somewhere in Donetsk region. with a loitering munition.


DNR 1st Bde takes out a XA-180 APC, location and context unclear.


Misc.

Russian dual loitering munition strike on a Ukrainian counter-battery radar. They hit the dish and the control trailer separately.


Allegedly a Ukrainian Buk position gets hit by a Shahed strike. The Shahed doesn't have a camera so how it found the target is unclear.


Russian Ka-52 dodges two MANPADS. The post credits this to the Vitebsk anti-MANPADS system but this is far from clear. The helo is also firing off flares.


A Russian SpN soldier and his kit, somewhere in Ukraine.


Another shot of a Russian S-60 guntruck.


Russian T-80BV carrying extra K-1 tiles.


Ukrainian mobilization efforts continue.


A whole battery of Ukrainian AS-90s. location and context unclear.


Ukrainian 2S7 from the 43rd Arty Bde. Location and context unclear.


The World.

Poland and Romania will reportedly set up service centers to maintain Ukrainian military equipment.


Reportedly Slovenia handed over 20 Pandur APCs to Ukraine.


First sighting of the Patriot SAM in Ukraine, probably around Kiev.


Bulgarian Arsenal MG-1M machinegunes arrive in Ukraine.


Iranian Kornet clones in Russian service at the front.

 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Update from Ukraine. Of note is the claim that they have killed a Russian Maj Gen and that Shoigu is reported to be in the southern front area. Ukrainian intelligence are hunting for him.

Apparently a Russian missile attack on Kryvyi Rih overnight.

Russian oil tank farm fire on Kuban River. Map in 2nd link.

Map of situation as at 00:00 12JUN23 UTC / GMT.
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1668441510981902336

Ukrainian attack on Russian armoured column south of Robotyne.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1668419223180431360

Russian Kamaz trucks with improv armour and a ZSU-23-2. Mean weapon.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1668314703293186048

Captured newly (re)manufactured Russian T-80BVM Obr.22
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1668359262358102021

US providing more Bradleys and Strikers.
https://twitter.com/CarlaBabbVOA/status/1668336289178083328

Ukrainian claims to have liberated villages.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1668347443170140196

Ukrainian SPG decoy. Appears to have worked.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1668336087696314368

Updated map of fixed Russian defences.
 

OPSSG

Super Moderator
Staff member
1. Forgive me but I am not buying Russian spin.

2. The Ukrainian Armed Forces (UAF) have begun the next stage of this war. The Ukrainian campaign has consisted of three key elements.

One, in the preliminary phase, political strikes were conducted against Moscow and Belgorod to confuse the Russian leadership and prod it into making changes in force dispositions (including air defence).​
Two, there were operational level strikes that targeted Russian headquarters, supply locations, and locations where Russian reserves were held, and aimed to break down the cohesion of Russian defences and ability to respond to Ukrainian attacks.​
Three, the Ukrainian campaign has started Phase 1 ground operations. A broad array of attacks at several locations in the east and south is utilising at least 3, and probably more, axes of advance.​

3. Current UAF operational success or failure is not measured by towns captured or positions Ukraine gains control of, but also destroying Russian C2 nodes & maintaining momentum & advancing after breaching enemy defences.

4. My favourite commentator, Dr Mike Martin, appears on DW News to explain the Ukrainian counteroffensive — slow & steady, to identify Russian positions.
(a) At certain locations, the have not succeeded, in others the UAF have pushed through 2 lines of defences. IMO, reserves on both sides are not yet committed.​
(b) Squeeze of Berdyansk on the coast expected and Russian units will be encircled on both sides. If Tokmak and Volnovakha fall, the Russian military expects UAF to make a rapid breakthrough all the way to Melitopol, Mariupol & Berdyansk.​
(c) Tokmak is the obvious main axis but we have not seen the reserves in the fight. Vuhledar is the section of the front line does not have as many physical defences and the Russian forces are relatively weakened due to a serious of stupid wasteful Russian attacks earlier.​
(d) Most importantly, it has become clear that UAF has been stockpiling artillery ammo esp HIMARs & that this are now being used to smash their way through Russian defenders.​
 
Last edited:

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
1. Forgive me but I am not buying Russian spin.
You are forgiven. I wouldn't buy it either. The question asked was about what Russia's position is. This was the answer.

3. Current UAF operational success or failure is not measured by towns captured or positions Ukraine gains control of, but also destroying Russian C2 nodes & maintaining momentum & advancing after breaching enemy defences.
Ok but if they attack, are repulsed with losses, regroup and attack again, and are repulsed with losses, or take a village but are then halted, where's the momentum? Have they breached Russian defenses? According to Rybar, we've had multiple back and forth changes of control at Makarovka. That's not momentum after a breach. That's another meatgrinder.


4. My favourite commentator, Dr Mike Martin, appears on DW News to explain the Ukrainian counteroffensive — slow & steady, to identify Russian positions.
(a) At certain locations, the have not succeeded, in others the UAF have pushed through 2 lines of defences. IMO, reserves on both sides are not yet committed.​
(b) Squeeze of Berdyansk on the coast expected and Russian units will be encircled on both sides. If Tokmak and Volnovakha fall, the Russian military expects UAF to make a rapid breakthrough all the way to Melitopol, Mariupol & Berdyansk.​
(c) Tokmak is the obvious main axis but we have not seen the reserves in the fight. Vuhledar is the section of the front line does not have as many physical defences and the Russian forces are relatively weakened due to a serious of stupid wasteful Russian attacks earlier.​
(d) Most importantly, it has become clear that UAF has been stockpiling artillery ammo esp HIMARs & that this are now being used to smash their way through Russian defenders.​
That's very optimistic. To get that far you would have to have a pretty general collapse of Russian lines. It's been 9 days and we don't see that happening yet. Instead we have a back and forth over several villages, with Ukraine losing a significant amount of their most modern armored vehicles to Russian mines, artillery, and ATGMs. It doesn't look like there is much momentum. I guess time will show. I think you're right about Ukraine's main forces not being committed yet, but they clearly threw some of their best forces forward presumably to achieve a breakthrough. It doesn't look like that has happened, since the entire Vrem'yevskiy bulge is in front of Russia's main defense line.

Russian soldiers posing with a knocked out Bradley. Warning footage of corpses.


A video of one of Ukraine's [EDIT: typing quickly I had a moment of confusion and put one for the other, this is the Ukrainian assault, if Rybar is correct and there have been several back and forth in this village, we don't know which of them this is, possibly the first one] assaults on Makarovka.


Bergenpanzer evacuating a Leo-2A6 presumably due to losing it's track on a landmine.


Possibly one of the knocked out Bradleys being finished off by a Russian T-90.

 
Last edited:

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Re losses of Bradley's ,certainly to be replaced ,the next article provides some reasons for the losses. It is certainly understandable about calls for modern aircraft for Ukraine if these attacks were also exposed to attacks from overhead.
Ukraine Situation Report: U.S. Sending More Bradleys | The Drive
Armor Expert Breaks Down Ukraine's Loss Of Bradleys During Breaching Operation (thedrive.com)
I wonder if they're aware of the second incident, where the 3 HMBVs were lost, along with more Leos and Bradleys. Or that column with the T-72, MaxxPro, and 3 MAZ trucks getting hit by a series of FPV drones.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
I wonder if they're aware of the second incident, where the 3 HMBVs were lost, along with more Leos and Bradleys. Or that column with the T-72, MaxxPro, and 3 MAZ trucks getting hit by a series of FPV drones.
Did any of these columns have anti aircraft protection?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Did any of these columns have anti aircraft protection?
Good question. I think we need to ask, what do we mean by protection? Did Russian Su-34s hang out over the battlefield and wreck everything with bombs? Clearly not. We have some confirmation of Ka-52s using their Vikhr ATGMs, likely from a large distance. So something was keeping Russian aircraft from just going "Highway of Death" on relatively concentrated Ukrainian formations. Were there AAA or tactical SAMs as part of the columns? No. Ukraine has relatively few systems that can fill that role, namely some Strela-10s, with the pre-war stock likely exhausted (we same some pop up in desert colors suggesting imports from the Middle East, possibly Jordan). We have the Gepards, but those are being held back to protect cities. Soviet-era ZSU-23-4s and 2S6s are basically out of the picture. What options are there? Not many. But it's likely some sort of Ukrainian SAM presence is near the front line, possibly some Osas hiding near the front, or even a Buk battery. We saw what was allegedly a Buk unit getting hit in Zaporozhye, it's probably not the only such element. There might also be IRIS-Ts, or even S-300s operating somewhere in the area that complicate Russian air operations. Denying Russia the sky completely seems out of the question, even if some hypothetical F-16s show up. But clearly Russian air operations are constrained.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member
I can recall back in the seventies some report that helicopters held the edge over tanks in the open and reverse in forested areas of Europe
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Good question. I think we need to ask, what do we mean by protection? Did Russian Su-34s hang out over the battlefield and wreck everything with bombs? Clearly not. We have some confirmation of Ka-52s using their Vikhr ATGMs, likely from a large distance. So something was keeping Russian aircraft from just going "Highway of Death" on relatively concentrated Ukrainian formations. Were there AAA or tactical SAMs as part of the columns? No. Ukraine has relatively few systems that can fill that role, namely some Strela-10s, with the pre-war stock likely exhausted (we same some pop up in desert colors suggesting imports from the Middle East, possibly Jordan). We have the Gepards, but those are being held back to protect cities. Soviet-era ZSU-23-4s and 2S6s are basically out of the picture. What options are there? Not many. But it's likely some sort of Ukrainian SAM presence is near the front line, possibly some Osas hiding near the front, or even a Buk battery. We saw what was allegedly a Buk unit getting hit in Zaporozhye, it's probably not the only such element. There might also be IRIS-Ts, or even S-300s operating somewhere in the area that complicate Russian air operations. Denying Russia the sky completely seems out of the question, even if some hypothetical F-16s show up. But clearly Russian air operations are constrained.
The Ukrainians have been given assorted MANPADS, including lightly refurbished Soviet-era ex-DDR stocks, & I think they're still receiving some.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
The Ukrainians have been given assorted MANPADS, including lightly refurbished Soviet-era ex-DDR stocks, & I think they're still receiving some.
Sure. But an Su-34 can hang out well above MANPADS range and still be effective. Ukraine definitely has more then just MANPADS available to them, and I suspect they've forward deployed at least something more serious then MANPADS and unguided AAA. I also suspect some of the Finnish Buks have made their way to Ukraine.

EDIT: A delayed update, near Artemovsk/Bakhmut reportedly a Russian counter-attack pushed Ukrainian forces back from Berkhovka. Meanwhile Ukrainian forces are continuing their push towards Klescheevka, but so far haven't reached the village.

 
Last edited:

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Russian Ka-52 operations, Zaporozhye. It seems clear at this point that Russia should discontinue purchases of the Mi-28N and focus on the Ka-52.
Why is this the case. Ever since the offensive started I have been hearing russian mil bloggers seriously praise the Ka-52. Why cant the Mi-28 operate the same way. Both can use the Vikhr, what makes the Ka-52 more adept at hunting down armour?

Also there has been a serious drop in the number of LMUR videos in the llast few months, running upto the offensive, is there any reason for this? Is there a special bottleneck in the supply of the LMUR?
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Sure. But an Su-34 can hang out well above MANPADS range and still be effective. Ukraine definitely has more then just MANPADS available to them, and I suspect they've forward deployed at least something more serious then MANPADS and unguided AAA. I also suspect some of the Finnish Buks have made their way to Ukraine.
Yes the SU-34 can fly above MANPAD range, but that just means Ukrainian SAMs have a nice target. The Russians have learned that lesson the hard way. Anecdotal evidence on Twitter and Telegram suggests that the Russians have lost some SU-34 Fallbacks, other fast jets, and helicopters when they have popped up out of ground cover.
Good question. I think we need to ask, what do we mean by protection? Did Russian Su-34s hang out over the battlefield and wreck everything with bombs? Clearly not. We have some confirmation of Ka-52s using their Vikhr ATGMs, likely from a large distance. So something was keeping Russian aircraft from just going "Highway of Death" on relatively concentrated Ukrainian formations. Were there AAA or tactical SAMs as part of the columns? No. Ukraine has relatively few systems that can fill that role, namely some Strela-10s, with the pre-war stock likely exhausted (we same some pop up in desert colors suggesting imports from the Middle East, possibly Jordan). We have the Gepards, but those are being held back to protect cities. Soviet-era ZSU-23-4s and 2S6s are basically out of the picture. What options are there? Not many. But it's likely some sort of Ukrainian SAM presence is near the front line, possibly some Osas hiding near the front, or even a Buk battery. We saw what was allegedly a Buk unit getting hit in Zaporozhye, it's probably not the only such element. There might also be IRIS-Ts, or even S-300s operating somewhere in the area that complicate Russian air operations. Denying Russia the sky completely seems out of the question, even if some hypothetical F-16s show up. But clearly Russian air operations are constrained.
Apparently the Ukrainians have MANPADs spread fairly densely throughout their units. Don't forget most MANPADs have a range of around 5km; some more, some less, and can have ceiling of say 2/3rds that.
 

seaspear

Well-Known Member

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Why is this the case. Ever since the offensive started I have been hearing russian mil bloggers seriously praise the Ka-52. Why cant the Mi-28 operate the same way. Both can use the Vikhr, what makes the Ka-52 more adept at hunting down armour?
Can the Mi-28N carry the Vikhr? We've never seen this actually done. I suspect there is some sort of obstacle.

Also there has been a serious drop in the number of LMUR videos in the llast few months, running upto the offensive, is there any reason for this? Is there a special bottleneck in the supply of the LMUR?
Good question. Probably? I honestly don't know, but the type has almost disappeared from front-line footage. Note it's possible that Russia has been stockpiling them for use against Ukraine's main push, but it's also possible they're just not possible to produce due to sanctions.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Yes the SU-34 can fly above MANPAD range, but that just means Ukrainian SAMs have a nice target. The Russians have learned that lesson the hard way. Anecdotal evidence on Twitter and Telegram suggests that the Russians have lost some SU-34 Fallbacks, other fast jets, and helicopters when they have popped up out of ground cover.
That's my whole point. MANPADS don't tell the whole story. Some sort of other Ukrainian air defense must be in the picture constraining Russian air operations.

Apparently the Ukrainians have MANPADs spread fairly densely throughout their units. Don't forget most MANPADs have a range of around 5km; some more, some less, and can have ceiling of say 2/3rds that.
How do you determine this both temporally and geographically? How well can MANPADS teams protect moving armored columns deep into enemy minefields?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update on Zaporozhye.

Overall it seems like Ukraine still hasn't launched a full attack anywhere. Some units have been used in some areas. They had limited success, in some situations took nasty casualties, but the main blow hasn't fallen yet.

We have unconfirmed reports of a failed Ukrainian attack west of Orekhovo. It appears to have been a probing attack.


It appears Ukraine has begun SEAD efforts in the area, presumably meant to either make HIMARS strikes harder to intercept or in preparation for some sort of heavier air activity. Two HARM missiles were shot down. No information so far on how many weren't shot down.


Kaskad btln strikes a Ukrainian T-80BV with a mine trawl, using a loitering munition.


An interesting incident in the Vremyevskiy bulge area, a Ukrainian T-72(B3?) runs over a friendly MaxxPro, possibly while trying to evacuate it. It gets hit by a Russian loitering munition while in process, and it appears Russian artillery is also firing on them. Later in the video we see another MaxxPro getting hit, and presumably destroyed, with an Oshkosh M-ATV in characteristic desert colors.


Russian Ka-52 ATGM strike allegedly against a Bradley on the Vremyevskiy bulge. Note we can't make out what exactly it's hitting.


Apparently an entire Russian Msta-S battery hit near the Vremyevskiy bulge, I can see at least 4 destroyed howitzers with 2 clearly identifiable as 2S19s


Assorted footage of Ukrainian Bradleys.

 

T.C.P

Well-Known Member
Can the Mi-28N carry the Vikhr? We've never seen this actually done. I suspect there is some sort of obstacle.



.
Even if we assume that there is an issue using Vikhr, why cant the Russians use their Mi-28s with Atakas for the same purpose, is the range of the Atakas that much less than the Vikhr?

Also have you seen any evidence of the Khrizantema usage during this war so far? the Mi-28Ms should have been compatible with those as well.
 
Top