The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
- Start date
The left bank's flooded most because it's lower. As well as a wide riverbed, there's a lot of land barely above the river, some of it marsh. The flood's extended the marshy area, probably to what it was before human activities made it feasible to build on some of it. Attacks from anywhere below the dam across the river now have to cross much more marsh than before, & there's no longer any possibility of capturing the dam & using the road across it. How does that help the Ukrainians?
Also, instead of a lake which can be crossed by boats, as the lake drains it uncovers a 20+ km wide strip of deep mud with a river meandering back & forth across it extending upriver for over 200km. I don't see that making Ukrainian attacks easier. Can't cross with boats, can't cross with wheeled or even tracked vehicles.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #7,663
If you listen to the conversation, one of the guys says "what are those" and the other says "I don't know, let's work on them". This is probably a result of the Ka-52s doing their ATGM strikes at maximum distance to avoid Ukrainian MANPADS and the OLS being poorly optimized for this kind of performance.
EDIT; We have footage of an alleged Ukrainian attack at Orekhov that appears to have failed. While we only have stills, and it's hard to make out, it does look like a mix of M113s and Leo-2s similar to the training column we saw ~1.5 months ago. We will probably need the video to be sure. Before this footage was published there was information of a Ukrainian push near Orekhov and this is a likely area from which to begin the real assault on the Melitopol' axis.
Colonelcassad
Кадры воздушной разведки провального наступления бронегрупп нацистов под Ореховым. Наступление бронетанковых кулаков захлебнулось, противник потерял десятки единиц техники в попытке подавить наши огневые позиции и доставить пехоту на передний край. https://t.me/ZA_FROHT/18193
t.me
Colonelcassad
t.me
Moscow calling
Предположительно, украинские бронетранспортёры М113 и танки Leopard 2A4, наступающие в районе Орехова. Техника частично была подорвана на минных полях и накрыта артиллерией. Сказывается отсутствие на танках, ведущих наступление на подготовленные позиции, минных тралов, а также предварительного...
t.me
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Ukraine was definitely planning something there. Russia had focused considerably airstrikes at Kherson region, Ukraine had positions on the islands, and to counter the airstrikes, Ukraine has pulled an IRIS-T to the front, I believe the first appearance of a western SAM that close to the front line (where it was promptly destroyed by a Russian loitering munition strike). It was unlikely to be the main effort. But something was at play, possibly a secondary attack intended to distract while the big push came in Zaporozhye area.
Смерть на Восточном фронте
Уничтожение локатора/пункта управления пиндоского ЗРК Ирис: Сначала, правда, померещился MEADS Петриота PAC-3 - вот его локатор: А вот - пусковая: Но больше похоже на локатор Ириса - короче база и камуфляж соответствующий: Стоит такая РЛС - 16,6 млн бакказоидов,…
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Last edited:
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #7,664
Update. Apr. 23rd-25th
Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.
Russian gliding bomb strikes against Ukrainian forces on the islands in the Dnepr.
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Allegedly a Ukrainian M777 getting hit in Kherson region by Russia's 205th Bde counter-battery fire. Note we don't see secondary detonations or a gun crew, suggesting this might be a decoy.
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Another Ukrainian M777 getting hit, this one by a loitering munition strike. We do see a crew setting up camo-netting and an anti-UAV roof net.
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Allegedly a Ukrainian Su-25 downed in Kherson region.
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Russian forces in the village of Aleshki, deny the presence of a Ukrainian crossing.
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Oskol Front.
Russia has struck the center of Kupyansk. Reportedly 1 civilian dead, 10 wounded.
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LDNR Front.
Wagner forces using Metis ATGMs against Ukrainian forces in the buildings of Artemovsk/Bakhmut.
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Some footage from inside a Ukrainian casualty collection point inside Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Warning graphic footage.
Destroyed Ukrainian cars and trucks in and around Artemovsk/Bakhmut including a Roshel Senator.
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Wagner is apparently not going to take any Ukrainian POWs anymore, due to alleged intercepted comms about Ukrainian forces killing a Wagner POW. It's a bit odd of a claim to make, since Prigozhin is essentially telling everyone his organization intends to commit warcrimes.
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It appears Kaskad btln is now set up near Avdeevka, where they have destroyed a Grad with loitering munitions.
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Fragments of a Russian gliding bomb wings in Avdeevka.
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Russian Kornet ATGM with thermobaric warheads being used in Mar'inka.
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A destroyed Ukrainian M113 in Mar'inka.
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Battle damage in Ugledar after Russian FAB-500 strikes. It appears Russia is leveling any buildings where they believe Ukrainian forces are.
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A HARM fragment in Donetsk, missile was allegedly shot down.
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Shelling of Donetsk continues.
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Russia.
Reportedly Ukraine attempted another attack on Sevastopol' using unmanned boats. Allegedly the attack was repelled with 2 such boats destroyed.
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A Ukrainian UJ-22 fell near Moscow, carrying 15 kg of explosives.
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Another Ukrainian UAV fell in Moscow region.
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Misc.
Russian loitering munition strike against a Ukrainian howitzer, allegedly Msta-B. The 76th VDV is the unit responsible. Note, the Msta-B was relatively rare in Ukrainian service and after over a year of war, it's likely this is a captured Russian piece.
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Footage of allegedly Russian SpN snipers from the 24th SpN Bde apparently taking out most of a Ukrainian infantry team, and captured a POW.
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A destroyed T-72 with K-1, possibly a B, though the post claims M1. Allegedly Ukrainian. Location and context unclear, though the forest looks like the woods around Kremennaya.
A Ukrainian Osa SAM burns. note the orange missile containers. These are likely the M2 older missiles sourced from Jordan. A Lancet drone is the likely culprit in the destruction.
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A destroyed Ukrainian M80A IFV, possibly in Kherson region.
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Another Ukrainian tractor converted for mine clearing. Note the armor panels taken from a presumably destroyed BMP.
Footage of Bradleys in Ukraine, almost certainly the 47th Assault Bde.
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Ukraine's 37th Marines with Oshkosh M-ATVs and AMX-10RCs.
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A Ukrainian Stormer SAM somewhere on the front line.
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A Challenger at a training ground in Ukraine.
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A closer look at a Ukrainian M113 with battle damage. Despite being relatively lightly armored, it's survived quite a few hits.
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Russia's 15th Motor-Rifles using a 2B9 automatic mortar on top of an improvised platform on an MT-LB. Again another sign that Russian armed forces badly need SP mortars.
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Russian S-300V4 somewhere in Ukraine. We've relatively few of these in action for some reason.
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Ukrainian mobilization efforts continue.
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Another POW exchange took place, 44 Ukrainians for 40 Russians.
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Allegedly two French fighters were involved in the execution of a Russian POWs. Warning footage of corpses.
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NATO/EU.
Ukrainian tankers training on Leo-2A4s in Poland.
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Romanian PG-7V rounds have shown up in Ukraine. These are rocket-propelled grenades meant for SPG-9 recoilless rifles.
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Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.
Russian gliding bomb strikes against Ukrainian forces on the islands in the Dnepr.
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Colonelcassad
Пока в украинском телеграмме разгоняют фейки про плацдармы на левобережье, на правом берегу Днепра и на островах в районе Херсона идет отработка по ВСУ и различным ДРГ в том числе и с применением корректируемых ФАБов. Это к вопросу о том, что "командование не видит и не знает". Все оно знает...
t.me
Allegedly a Ukrainian M777 getting hit in Kherson region by Russia's 205th Bde counter-battery fire. Note we don't see secondary detonations or a gun crew, suggesting this might be a decoy.
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Another Ukrainian M777 getting hit, this one by a loitering munition strike. We do see a crew setting up camo-netting and an anti-UAV roof net.
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Allegedly a Ukrainian Su-25 downed in Kherson region.
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Colonelcassad
На Херсонском направлении оператор ПЗРК уничтожил украинский штурмовик Су-25 пытавшийся работать по нашим позициям.
t.me
GREY ZONE
Расчётом ПЗРК ВС России из района населённого пункта Голая Пристань на Херсонском направлении был сбит, предположительно, штурмовик Су-25 ВВС Украины. Самолёт упал на противоположном правом берегу Днепра, близь деревень Велетенское и Кизомыс Белозёрского района Херсонской области – 46°33'43"N...
t.me
Russian forces in the village of Aleshki, deny the presence of a Ukrainian crossing.
Colonelcassad
И еще одно опровержение фейка про "плацдарм ВСУ" в районе Алешек. Бойцы отряда "Херсон" прибыли на место, никаких плацдармов у моста не обнаружили.
t.me
Oskol Front.
Russia has struck the center of Kupyansk. Reportedly 1 civilian dead, 10 wounded.
Moscow calling
Центр Купянска Харьковской области (подконтролен Украине) попал под обстрел, разрушено здание местного краеведческого музея, под завалами есть люди. Погибла сотрудница музея, ранены более 10 человек, — офис президента Украины.
t.me
LDNR Front.
Wagner forces using Metis ATGMs against Ukrainian forces in the buildings of Artemovsk/Bakhmut.
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Some footage from inside a Ukrainian casualty collection point inside Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Warning graphic footage.
Destroyed Ukrainian cars and trucks in and around Artemovsk/Bakhmut including a Roshel Senator.
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Wagner is apparently not going to take any Ukrainian POWs anymore, due to alleged intercepted comms about Ukrainian forces killing a Wagner POW. It's a bit odd of a claim to make, since Prigozhin is essentially telling everyone his organization intends to commit warcrimes.
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It appears Kaskad btln is now set up near Avdeevka, where they have destroyed a Grad with loitering munitions.
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Moscow calling
ОБТФ ДНР "Каскад" (да, у субъектов федерации РФ есть свои вооруженные формирования) нанёс удар БПЛА "Ланцет" по украинской РСЗО "Град". Интересно, что на официальном канале "Каскада" заявлено, что поражение "Града" есть совместная работа с т.н. "ЧВК "Патриот" (считается аффилированной с МО РФ и...
t.me
Fragments of a Russian gliding bomb wings in Avdeevka.
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Russian Kornet ATGM with thermobaric warheads being used in Mar'inka.
Colonelcassad
Страшная вещь наш «Корнет». Особенно с термобарическими боеприпасами. Работа ОСН «Викинг» по укрепам ВСУ в Марьинке. При попадании в окно и детонации в помещении дома просто разносит. Сама Марьинка потихоньку освобождается. Наши парни не торопятся: жизни своих братьев по оружию важнее. Когда...
t.me
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A destroyed Ukrainian M113 in Mar'inka.
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Battle damage in Ugledar after Russian FAB-500 strikes. It appears Russia is leveling any buildings where they believe Ukrainian forces are.
Colonelcassad
На кадрах из Угледара наглядно видно, что могло ждать дом в Белгороде, если бы ФАБ-500 попал в многоэтажку. В Угледаре в последние недели начали активно лупить по многоэтажкам и с помощью корректируемых бомб обваливать целые пролеты. В самих домах гражданских на этажах давно нет - там сидят...
t.me
Colonelcassad
Угледар, вид с воздуха. Хорошо видны поврежденные корректируемыми авиабомбами многоэтажки с обвалившимися пролетами.
t.me
A HARM fragment in Donetsk, missile was allegedly shot down.
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Shelling of Donetsk continues.
Colonelcassad
Нацики нанесли удар из РСЗО по жилому кварталу города Макеевка. Погибли две женщины, которые шли по улице.
t.me
Russia.
Reportedly Ukraine attempted another attack on Sevastopol' using unmanned boats. Allegedly the attack was repelled with 2 such boats destroyed.
Moscow calling
А в Севастополе сегодня ночью была атака надводных беспилотников. Один, вроде как, уничтожили, ещё один взорвался сам.
t.me
Moscow calling
Последствия атаки украинских морских беспилотников на Севастополь - вид с Черноморской яхтенной школы на Стрелецкую бухту, в которой наблюдается лёгкое задымление.
t.me
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Colonelcassad
Уничтожение морского дрона противника сегодня ночью в Севастополе. У нас на районе его было хорошо слышно, заряд там мощный был.
t.me
A Ukrainian UJ-22 fell near Moscow, carrying 15 kg of explosives.
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Another Ukrainian UAV fell in Moscow region.
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Misc.
Russian loitering munition strike against a Ukrainian howitzer, allegedly Msta-B. The 76th VDV is the unit responsible. Note, the Msta-B was relatively rare in Ukrainian service and after over a year of war, it's likely this is a captured Russian piece.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Footage of allegedly Russian SpN snipers from the 24th SpN Bde apparently taking out most of a Ukrainian infantry team, and captured a POW.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
A destroyed T-72 with K-1, possibly a B, though the post claims M1. Allegedly Ukrainian. Location and context unclear, though the forest looks like the woods around Kremennaya.
A Ukrainian Osa SAM burns. note the orange missile containers. These are likely the M2 older missiles sourced from Jordan. A Lancet drone is the likely culprit in the destruction.
Colonelcassad
Уничтоженная на трассе ЗРК "Оса" ВСУ. Возможно, это та же, которую поразил "Ланцет".
t.me
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A destroyed Ukrainian M80A IFV, possibly in Kherson region.
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Another Ukrainian tractor converted for mine clearing. Note the armor panels taken from a presumably destroyed BMP.
Колхозный тральщик.
Трактор Т-150, превращенный в импровизированный минный тральщик. Для бронирования взяты элементы корпуса украинской БМП, ранее уничтоженной ВС РФ, дерево, различный металл. Вынужденная мера в связи с нехваткой настоящих БРМ. Украинцы заставили минами все пространство, без составления всяких карт,…
shusharmor.livejournal.com
Footage of Bradleys in Ukraine, almost certainly the 47th Assault Bde.
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Colonelcassad
Уже перекрашенные под украинский ТВД БМП "Брэдли" на одном из полигонов. Машины находятся на вооружении 47-й омбр.
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Ukraine's 37th Marines with Oshkosh M-ATVs and AMX-10RCs.
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A Ukrainian Stormer SAM somewhere on the front line.
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A Challenger at a training ground in Ukraine.
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A closer look at a Ukrainian M113 with battle damage. Despite being relatively lightly armored, it's survived quite a few hits.
Moscow calling
Бронетранспортёр М113 с алюминиевой бронёй считается достаточно уязвимимым, но БТР на службе ВСУ демонстрирует стойкость к пулям и осколкам (хотя бронебойными крупнокалиберными патронами стойкость М113 лучше всё же не проверять).
t.me
Russia's 15th Motor-Rifles using a 2B9 automatic mortar on top of an improvised platform on an MT-LB. Again another sign that Russian armed forces badly need SP mortars.
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Russian S-300V4 somewhere in Ukraine. We've relatively few of these in action for some reason.
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Ukrainian mobilization efforts continue.
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Another POW exchange took place, 44 Ukrainians for 40 Russians.
Moscow calling
Состоялся очередной обмен пленными - домой вернулись 44 украинца и 40 граждан РФ. Среди украинцев, по словам Ермака - 36 рядовых и сержантов и 6 офицеров. Это военные, пограничники, нацгвардейцы, моряки, в их числе - оборонявшие "Азовсталь". Также освободили двух гражданских. Информация по 40...
t.me
Moscow calling
Шамсаил Саралиев, депутат Государственной Думы (партия "Единая Россия", регион - Чечня), представитель Парламентской координационной группы по вопросам СВО опубликовал видео 40 вернувшихся в результате сегодняшнего обмена пленными российских бойцов.
t.me
Allegedly two French fighters were involved in the execution of a Russian POWs. Warning footage of corpses.
Colonelcassad
t.me
NATO/EU.
Ukrainian tankers training on Leo-2A4s in Poland.
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Romanian PG-7V rounds have shown up in Ukraine. These are rocket-propelled grenades meant for SPG-9 recoilless rifles.
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KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
That one was pretty hilarious. When I saw it I thought that that “Leo” looks exactly like a sprayer in the middle of the field. On this note, it is pretty crazy that there is farming (potentially) going on in the middle of this.
I’d have to agree on the “if” and “the main jumping point” at Kherson. I do not see how the Ukrainians are disadvantaged here otherwise, as far the battlefield is concerned. But I also do not see it as a main point of attack, which I stated probably a couple of times previously in the thread. Distraction, but no more than that. Kofman seems to agree to some degree at least:
Overall, it is not clear what will happen to the landscape and the geography once the water recedes. Things could last weeks, but could also last months. Things could also be changed forever as far as marshes and whatnot go. There was an articled at NPR a while back about the Irpin dam the Ukrainians blew up in the first days of the war:
This one is also a whole different animal too.
CNN is confirming, referencing US officials, that the Ukrainians are taking “significant” losses around Bakhmut: https://edition.cnn.com/2023/06/08/politics/ukraine-forces-resistance/index.html
Ukrainian forces have suffered losses in heavy equipment and soldiers as they met greater than expected resistance from Russian forces in their first attempt to breach Russian lines in the east of the country in recent days, two senior US officials tell CNN.
One US official described the losses – which include US supplied MRAP armored personnel vehicles as “significant.”
Ukrainian forces managed to overrun some Russian forces in the east around Bakhmut. However, Russian forces, armed with anti-tank missiles, grenades and mortars, have put up “stiff resistance,” with their forces dug into defensive lines that are several layers deep in some areas and marked by minefields that have taken a heavy toll on Ukrainian armored vehicles.
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
Russian MoD posted the video:
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #7,667
It looks a lot like Russian failed attacks at Ugledar. Columns bunching along tree lines or on roads, likely trying to avoid minefields, and getting picked apart by artillery.Russian MoD posted the video:
KipPotapych
Well-Known Member
^ Lol. Well, the stills appear to be from that video. So it’s either that or two tango the same when they attack (well-?) prepared positions.
a pretty intense night battle ocurred last night, near Orekhovsky-
This is the DeepL translation fro the comment section of the Russian Posters-
"As a continuation of yesterday's topic on the AFU offensive and our preparations for that offensive.
Yes, we knew, yes, we prepared, yes, we guessed again where they would go, and finally we waited for the Leopards! The enemy began the offensive in the Orekhovsky direction at 2 a.m. MSC in the zone of the 58th Army defence. With a wide front, after a powerful artillery preparation and REB attack, which put down our antenna communications. The infantry trembled but did not run, although one of the company strongpoints was literally razed to the ground.
The main striking force of the night assault was the column of armoured vehicles emerging from Malaya Tokmachka; it consisted of 40 tanks, some of which were Leopards.
The success of the battle was predetermined by the professional work of the Special Forces of the 45th and 22nd Brigades. Being in the grey zone, our "spetsnaz", with sufficient time margin, spotted the vehicles moving without headlights, allowing two pairs of Ka-52s to reach the place of battle.
Approaching the minefields, the enemy launched demining "Zmey-Gorinich", and tanks with trawls went forward, clearing the way for the "Leopards" and armoured vehicles with infantry. The AFU brigade, trained on the NATO firing ranges, would probably have turned quickly into a combat formation and moved on our strongholds... But it was shot down in the night battle, which was very dramatic and breathtaking. The armoured vehicles, abandoned on minefields, were attacked from all sides by ATGMs, artillery and, of course, helicopters.
As a result, by the morning 20 damaged or disabled enemy tanks (including 4 Leopards) and 15 armoured vehicles were left on the battlefield, and neither the enemy, nor we had an opportunity to evacuate them from the minefield.
In short, all our troops - from the 58th Army commandant, Lieutenant-General Ivan Popov, to ATGM teams, helicopter pilots, infantry, artillery and special forces worked as a single, well-oiled mechanism.
The legendary commander of the 58th, Vladimir Shamanov, would have been pleased with both his army and his 45th brigade. Well, and he would also be very pleased with one more of his good acquaintances...
The daytime offensive in this sector became a pathetic parody of the night-time offensive: covered by our artillery, the AFU armoured convoy did not even reach our minefields."
Another video of Ukr armoured cars hitting mines near Uldegar
Minefield near Berkhovka
This is the DeepL translation fro the comment section of the Russian Posters-
"As a continuation of yesterday's topic on the AFU offensive and our preparations for that offensive.
Yes, we knew, yes, we prepared, yes, we guessed again where they would go, and finally we waited for the Leopards! The enemy began the offensive in the Orekhovsky direction at 2 a.m. MSC in the zone of the 58th Army defence. With a wide front, after a powerful artillery preparation and REB attack, which put down our antenna communications. The infantry trembled but did not run, although one of the company strongpoints was literally razed to the ground.
The main striking force of the night assault was the column of armoured vehicles emerging from Malaya Tokmachka; it consisted of 40 tanks, some of which were Leopards.
The success of the battle was predetermined by the professional work of the Special Forces of the 45th and 22nd Brigades. Being in the grey zone, our "spetsnaz", with sufficient time margin, spotted the vehicles moving without headlights, allowing two pairs of Ka-52s to reach the place of battle.
Approaching the minefields, the enemy launched demining "Zmey-Gorinich", and tanks with trawls went forward, clearing the way for the "Leopards" and armoured vehicles with infantry. The AFU brigade, trained on the NATO firing ranges, would probably have turned quickly into a combat formation and moved on our strongholds... But it was shot down in the night battle, which was very dramatic and breathtaking. The armoured vehicles, abandoned on minefields, were attacked from all sides by ATGMs, artillery and, of course, helicopters.
As a result, by the morning 20 damaged or disabled enemy tanks (including 4 Leopards) and 15 armoured vehicles were left on the battlefield, and neither the enemy, nor we had an opportunity to evacuate them from the minefield.
In short, all our troops - from the 58th Army commandant, Lieutenant-General Ivan Popov, to ATGM teams, helicopter pilots, infantry, artillery and special forces worked as a single, well-oiled mechanism.
The legendary commander of the 58th, Vladimir Shamanov, would have been pleased with both his army and his 45th brigade. Well, and he would also be very pleased with one more of his good acquaintances...
The daytime offensive in this sector became a pathetic parody of the night-time offensive: covered by our artillery, the AFU armoured convoy did not even reach our minefields."
Another video of Ukr armoured cars hitting mines near Uldegar
Minefield near Berkhovka
Lancet strike taking out an IRIS-T radar. The russian comments say that they tried to take out the missile system as well, but was thwarted by the Ukr defenses-
Confirmed on Oryx later as well, as we ge got another video fot he radar burning up afterwards
More storm shadow strikes this time in Luhansk
Confirmed on Oryx later as well, as we ge got another video fot he radar burning up afterwards
More storm shadow strikes this time in Luhansk
NORSAR detected a powerful explosion at the dam at the time of the breach:
Seismic signals recorded from an explosion at the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine - jordskjelv.no
Experts say only an explosion inside the dam would cause such a breach. Russia had full control of the dam.
It takes a lot to knock a dam out. Artillery possibly could after days pounding with the target being the front face of the dam, but it's not guaranteed. Even earthen dams are difficult to knock out with conventional weapons. If you look at the RAF attack against the dams in the Ruhr, it took a specially designed bomb to knock two of the three dams out (Mohne and Eder; the Sorpe survived the attack), and the aircraft had to be specially modified to carry the bombs. The bombs had to be spinning when they hit the water from a height of 60ft at a precise speed. Explosions in water are different to explosions on land / air because water is incompressible. In the case of the Ruhr dams the bombs had to be against the wall of the dam for them to have any chance of destroying the dams. It took five of the bombs to breach the Mohne dam. The RAF had the Grand Slam 10 ton bomb later in the war and I wonder how effective they would've been against a dam? In this case the bomb buried itself about 100ft into the ground before exploding creating a void beneath the target. The attack on the Bielefeld Viaduct is a very good example of the Grand Slam at work. During the Korea War the US attacked the North Korean Sui-ho dam multiple times, but in this case the airstrikes targeted the generating facilities.
Therefore I believe that claims of artillery and missile strikes against the Kakhova dam are not correct. If as some claim, the dam was weakened by an earlier explosion, it would still require more than artillery or missiles to cause the collapse, and I have seen no claims of water seepage at the dam prior to the breach of 6/6/23. If the dam was previously damaged and seepage had occurred, it would have gone a lot earlier because water is very good at eroding material quickly, if it has sufficient pressure behind it, and the head on that dam is quite large. Such seepage would have been very difficult to hide because it is very evident at the later stages. Even a blind man couldn't miss it.
So far evidence in the public domain suggests that the Russians were responsible for the explosion. The explosion was heard and it is known that the Russians had mined the dam. However the published evidence doesn't categorically prove that the Russians did blow the dam, but it gives greater credence to the proposition that Ukraine did not blow the dam.
Therefore I believe that claims of artillery and missile strikes against the Kakhova dam are not correct. If as some claim, the dam was weakened by an earlier explosion, it would still require more than artillery or missiles to cause the collapse, and I have seen no claims of water seepage at the dam prior to the breach of 6/6/23. If the dam was previously damaged and seepage had occurred, it would have gone a lot earlier because water is very good at eroding material quickly, if it has sufficient pressure behind it, and the head on that dam is quite large. Such seepage would have been very difficult to hide because it is very evident at the later stages. Even a blind man couldn't miss it.
So far evidence in the public domain suggests that the Russians were responsible for the explosion. The explosion was heard and it is known that the Russians had mined the dam. However the published evidence doesn't categorically prove that the Russians did blow the dam, but it gives greater credence to the proposition that Ukraine did not blow the dam.
Ananda
The Bunker Group
Yes, it take a lot off concentrated effort to breach a dam, especially as big of Kakhovka. Circumstances evidences so far are very debatable from both sides. One thing for sure this talk of one big blown done by Russia is also very questionable. Even western media already debunk the videos that Pro Ukrainian shown. That's why I do see this as results of cumulative factors progressively weakening the Dam.
Whether this cumulative factors done by both sides or one sides done more, is also debatable.
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
A youtube video that lays out some of the evidence. While the originator is pro-UKR, he lays out the various pieces of info fairly.
Had a relative who was an engineer who built dams.
Recall a distant conversation with the stand out takeaway that these things are built to last a very very long time and are over engineered to cater for what mother nature can throw at it.
These things take a long time to build and dare say are not so easy to pull apart.
Could Ukraine bring enough kinetic force to breech this dam?
If so, why would they?
My guess-Russia is the culprit.
Cheers S
Ananda
The Bunker Group
The effidence so far only based on each sides pro medias plus some bloggers or vlogers. All only base on speculation and circumstances ones.
This blogger also pro Russian, however try to be fair on piecing evidences.
However each pro Russian or pro Ukrainian will try to pieces evidences that support each of their sides claim and try to blame others. This war basically already war of biases and propaganda. Then again all the pieces of each sides are so far circumstances ones.
This blogger also pro Russian, however try to be fair on piecing evidences.
However each pro Russian or pro Ukrainian will try to pieces evidences that support each of their sides claim and try to blame others. This war basically already war of biases and propaganda. Then again all the pieces of each sides are so far circumstances ones.
- Thread Starter Thread Starter
- #7,678
Update on Zaporozhye.
Ok, we have good photos from the failed attack on the Orekhov axis, and it looks like a Ukrainian armored column got absolutely wrecked, including Leo-2A4s and A6s, and Bradleys. Some of the Leopards are harder to make out, but one Leo-2A6 is clearly visible. Total casualties appear to be as follows;
5 Leo-2s (one in the treeline with a mine trawl I think)
6 Bradleys
3 MaxxPro MRAPs
1 YPR-765
1 T-72M1
1 BMR-2 ( mine clearing vehicle)
1 VAB
some light vehicles
t.me
vk.com
t.me
vk.com
vk.com
Some of this was apparently artillery work.
vk.com
A Leopard burning. Likely one of the ones above.
vk.com
Another Leopard and Bradley knocked out and allegedly abandoned.
vk.com
Another Leo-2 hit a landmine, allegedly part of the attack above but successfully evacuated afterwards.
t.me
vk.com
Allegedly a Ka-52M attacking the column we see destroyed above. This matches with statements from Russian sources. So while they're certainly destroying some agricultural combines, they're also clearly Russia's most relevant attack helicopter.
t.me
vk.com
Allegedly one of the Leo-2s before the failed attack.
t.me
One of the Mastiffs destroyed in the previous attack at Novodonetskoe.
vk.com
Allegedly footage of continuing Ukrainian attacks getting hit.
t.me
EDIT: We have footage of allegedly a Russian infantry element withdrawing from a position. Note it was said Ukraine took Novodonetskoe village at one point and then apparently lost it again. We don't have specifics on location or context for this image beyond it being Zaporozhye area recently.
t.me
Ok, we have good photos from the failed attack on the Orekhov axis, and it looks like a Ukrainian armored column got absolutely wrecked, including Leo-2A4s and A6s, and Bradleys. Some of the Leopards are harder to make out, but one Leo-2A6 is clearly visible. Total casualties appear to be as follows;
5 Leo-2s (one in the treeline with a mine trawl I think)
6 Bradleys
3 MaxxPro MRAPs
1 YPR-765
1 T-72M1
1 BMR-2 ( mine clearing vehicle)
1 VAB
some light vehicles
Colonelcassad
Всего в ходе провальной атаки на Запорожском направлении ВСУ лишились как минимум: — 5 немецких танков Leopard 2A6 и 2A4 (2 уничтожено, 1 подбит и брошен, 3 брошены) — 6 американских БМП M2A2 Bradley ODS-SA (все подбиты и брошены) — 3 американских MRAP M1224 MaxxPro (все подбиты и брошены) — 1...
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Kotsnews
Ну наконец кадры уничтоженных Леопарда и Бредли в хорошем качестве. Смотрите видео без регистрации и СМС) @sashakots
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Some of this was apparently artillery work.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
A Leopard burning. Likely one of the ones above.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Another Leopard and Bradley knocked out and allegedly abandoned.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Another Leo-2 hit a landmine, allegedly part of the attack above but successfully evacuated afterwards.
Colonelcassad
Украинские военные снимают поврежденный в результате подрыва на мине боевой танк Leopard 2A4 немецкого производства, один из тех, что были задействованы в неудачной атаке на Запорожском направлении фронта. видео: @new_militarycolumnist
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Allegedly a Ka-52M attacking the column we see destroyed above. This matches with statements from Russian sources. So while they're certainly destroying some agricultural combines, they're also clearly Russia's most relevant attack helicopter.
Colonelcassad
Модернизированный Ка-52 наносит огневое поражение танку ВСУ, который движется в составе колонны со стороны Орехова источник: @voin_dv
t.me
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Allegedly one of the Leo-2s before the failed attack.
Colonelcassad
За мгновения до уничтожения: Первое вражеское фото немецкого танка leopard 2 при наступлении на Запорожском фронте Армия России вчера, в свою очередь, опубликовала первые фото пылающих "Леопардов" под Ореховом. фото: @RVvoenkor
t.me
One of the Mastiffs destroyed in the previous attack at Novodonetskoe.
VK.com | VK
vk.com
Allegedly footage of continuing Ukrainian attacks getting hit.
ЗАПОРОЖСКИЙ ФРОНТ
Новая попытка наступления ВСУ. Что известно к этому часу: ▪️на Запорожском направлении украинцы с полуночи несколько раз выдвигались на позиции РФ колоннами по семь — десять БМП с прикрытием артиллерии, сообщил военкор Александр Сладков @Sladkov_plus; ▪️ противник смог близко подойти к...
t.me
EDIT: We have footage of allegedly a Russian infantry element withdrawing from a position. Note it was said Ukraine took Novodonetskoe village at one point and then apparently lost it again. We don't have specifics on location or context for this image beyond it being Zaporozhye area recently.
Moscow calling
Предположительно, отступление бойцов ВС РФ, численностью до роты, на Запорожском направлении. Атаки ВСУ в настоящий момент носят скорее характер "прощупывания", "разведки боем". Иногда им улыбается удача, в других случаях их выявляют и поражают на этапе развёртывания, как под Орехово...
t.me
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vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
The picture of the wrecked column looks legit (I ran it through a fake-detecting site) and its cut from a video, so looks like a bad day for the UKR element. With no artillery craters in the photo or obvious blast marks, looks like mines are the biggest winner on that attack.