The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[T.C.P]

4 aircraft all shot down around the same time? Shortly after Ukraine received an assortment of mid-range and long-range western SAMs? I suppose it's possible. I suspect a Ukrainian op is more likely.

Fair enough, but would Ukraine risk their western Sams so close to the border when their legacy sams are precariously low in missiles and Russia sending constant missile and drone barrrages to their cities. And that too with so many sams recently lost to the recent Lancet attacks. It could very well be a mix of both as well, a couple losses to a Ukr sams and a couple to Russia's own AA. But usually whenevr the Ukr have such a success they brag about it. By now I would have expected evry single Ukra channel (especially the overzealous non state controlled ones) to start heavily lauding their Ad's successes.

In other news, their wwas a big explosion in Ternopil, with a lot of misinformation surrounding it. A bunch of russian channels, tried to pass explosions in Syira and Iraq as the explosion in ternopil (which is sad, russian cyber patriots need to do better), but a few footages out seem to be more credible. rybar in particular is claiming it was an attack on a rail station.

Also in another tidbit, the original discord server for the much talked about leaks appears to be........you guessed it, a warthunder discord! Ha hA. Warthunder strikes again!

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1657411064194007041

 

[Feanor]

Fair enough, but would Ukraine risk their western Sams so close to the border when their legacy sams are precariously low in missiles and Russia sending constant missile and drone barrrages to their cities. And that too with so many sams recently lost to the recent Lancet attacks. It could very well be a mix of both as well, a couple losses to a Ukr sams and a couple to Russia's own AA. But usually whenevr the Ukr have such a success they brag about it. By now I would have expected evry single Ukra channel (especially the overzealous non state controlled ones) to start heavily lauding their Ad's successes.

Maybe. Or maybe they want Russia chasing their tail, hunting for Ukrainian infiltrators with MANPADS. Ukraine hasn't lost any IRIS-T, or Patriots, and forward deploying them to strike Russian jets from ambush when they're in the middle of their own strike operations would be bold but potentially quite impactful. How close would they really have to get considering Russian aircraft are completely not expecting this?

EDIT: Military observer claims the two downed helos were Mi-8 Rychag-AV variants, i.e. EW models supporting a gliding bomb strike by the Su-34, with the Su-35S offering protection against Ukrainian jets. If accurate, an attempt to counter this recent Russian tactic of such strikes makes sense. This of course doesn't answer the question of how it was done, but it makes friendly fire highly unlikely.

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[contricusc]

That's the point. This talk from some media or opinions in West that Putin Russia is only bluffing on nuclear is not taken account when Russia found themselves push in to the corner, they will use everything they got including nuclear.

Those in the West who think Russia is only bluffing about going nuclear (me included) point to the fact that Russia is not pushed into a corner by any rational means. They try to paint a picture that they are pushed into a corner in order for the bluff to be credible, but nobody believes they are actually insane and really believe their own propaganda.

You keep repeating the idea that Russia is the one who decides when it feels threatened and pushed into a corner, as if there is nothing objective about the situation and everything is just perception.

Most people in the West believe there are many objective facts about the situation, and Russians know them too, despite the propaganda claims they make to the opposite. They know they were not cornered, but they pretent to think they were, in order for their bluffs to be more credible. That’s why we consider them bluffs, not real threats.

 

[Feanor]

Update. Mar 28th-29th

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

A damaged (destroyed?) Ukrainian M777 in Zaporozhye region after a Russian strike.

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Reportedly a HIMARS strike hitting the train depot in Melitopol'.

Moscow calling

HIMARSировка Мелитополя. По данным городских экстренных служб, обстреляно локомотивное депо и объекты электроснабжения, в городе и близлежащих сёлах пропал свет. О пострадавших в настоящий момент неизвестно.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Обстрел Мелитополя. В 5.15 был произведен обстрел н.п. Мелитополь из РСЗО Himars, сбито 3 ракеты, оставшиеся 3 поразили объекты в городе 1 в ж.д. подстанция , 2 в депо( 1 в землю, 1 возле вагончика на фото ниже) куда 27 был нанесен удар. Осколки сбитых ракет упали в авиагородок, ущерб...

t.me

The North.

Ukraine downing a Shahed over Kiev.

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Russian strikes landing in Kiev.

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Oskol Front.

A boat allegedly being used by Ukrainian infiltrator team on the Severskiy Donets river, getting destroyed near Kremennaya.

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Apparently a Ukrainian BMP-1 captured near Svatovo.

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LDNR Front.

Russian Wagner forces artillery strike on a Ukrainian infantry element, Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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A destroyed Ukrainian T-64BV in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

Очередной уничтоженный укропский Т-64БВ в Бахмуте.

t.me

Aerial footage of the western outskirts of Artemovsk/Bakhmut. It gives a good impression of what terrain the fighting takes place on.

Colonelcassad

Бои в Артемовске. Вид с дрона. Фронт продолжает сдвигаться в западной части города.

t.me

A Ukrainian column near Zaliznyanskoe village, on the road into Artemovsk/Bakhmut from Slavyansk getting hit. Multiple vehicles appear to be taken out.

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Ukrainian Varta armored car damaged on the road into Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

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Ukrainian 2S3 getting hit near Artemovsk/Bakhmut by a Russian loitering munition. It catches fires and appears to burn down.

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The road into Artemovsk/Bakhmut, we can see a destroyed Kipri MRAP, Dingo armored car, burned out BTR-4 (likely the one we saw before in action and then destroyed), and a destroyed SUV.

Colonelcassad

Реалии дороги из Артемовска. Уничтоженные бронеавтомобили ("Динго" и "Кирпи", сгоревший БТР, различная колесная техника). Цена сообщения с Артемовском для ВСУ весьма высока, с учетом поражения машин на трассе артиллерией и ПТУРами. На въезде в город еще и минометы добавляют. Видео...

t.me

Allegedly an overrun Ukrainian position on the Avdeevka axis, warning footage of corpses. 6 POWs were apparently captured.

Colonelcassad

Результаты работы штурмовиков 1 корпуса – взята позиция противника и захвачены в плен 6 боевиков Бойцы штурмового подразделения 1 Донецкого армейского корпуса заняли позицию украинских боевиков на Авдеевском направлении. В ходе боя, было захвачено вооружение, в том числе - иностранного...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Результаты работы штурмовиков 1 корпуса – взята позиция противника и захвачены в плен 6 боевиков Бойцы штурмового подразделения 1 Донецкого армейского корпуса заняли позицию украинских боевиков на Авдеевском направлении. В ходе боя, было захвачено вооружение, в том числе - иностранного...

t.me

Ukrainian M777 getting hit near Avdeevka. Note we can see the gun firing.

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A suspected Ukrainian howitzer position near Avdeevka gets hit. A major forest fire starts, and there are explosions that might be ammo cooking off.

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Allegedly a Ukrainian T-64 burns near Avdeevka. I think we've seen this footage before.

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Russian airstrikes in Avdeevka.

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Pervomayskoe, 9th Bde, former DNR 9th Rgt, MT-12s firing on Ukrainian positions.

Colonelcassad

"Рапиры" 9 бригады уничтожают нацистов в Первомайском Расчеты 100-мм противотанковых пушек МТ-12 "Рапира" 9 бригады 1 Донецкого армейского корпуса( ранее 9 полк НМ ДНР) снайперским огнём уничтожают скопления живой силы и укрепления украинских боевиков в Первомайском. @nm_dnr

t.me

Sparta btln quadcopter munition drops. Note the unit is active in the Pervomayskoe area.

Colonelcassad

Работа операторов дронов-бомбардировщиков по пехоте противника в полосе действия батальона "Спарта".

t.me

Russian artillery fires in Mar'inka.

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Russian T-90M ops in Mar'inka. Likely the 150th Motor-Rifles.

Colonelcassad

Работа Т-90М в Марьинке @Sladkov_plus

t.me

Donetsk was remote mined again, injuring two civilians, one whom is dead, and the other in critical condition. Reportedly German AT2 mines were involved.

Война Глазами Журналиста

Куйбышевский район Донецка. Немецкая противотанковая мина AT2. Всего по району ночью раскидали больше 20 штук, сейчас идёт разминирование. От взрыва двух мин были ранены 2 человека, один в последствие скончался в больнице, за жизнь женщина сейчас борются врачи.

t.me

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DNR forces have captured a Ukrainian anti-UAV rifle the PIRANHA-5RADK.

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Russia.

Allegedly a Ukrainian UAV was downed near Gvardeyskoe, Crimea. It was initially reported as ordinance disposal of WWII-era munitions.

Moscow calling

В районе Гвардейского в Крыму взрыв. Сообщается, что это утилизация немецкой авиабомбы времён ВОВ SC-500. Отмечу, что никаких предварительных объявлений о планируемой утилизации не было. UPD Аксенов заявил о сбитом БПЛА, и что разрушений нет.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Место падения украинского беспилотника в поле рядом с Гвардейским. Судя по размеру воронки, действительно похоже на упавший "Стриж".

t.me

Кирилл Фёдоров / Война История Оружие

❗️Беспилотник сбит в Симферопольском районе, он упал в поле, жертв и разрушений нет – глава Крыма Аксенов

t.me

Svitino village, Moscow region, a crashed Ukrainian UAV was found near a rail line. Likely a failed strike attempt.

Moscow calling

Baza сообщает об обнаружении жителем поселка Свитино Московской области в 100 м от железнодорожных путей обломков украинского БПЛА. Если посмотрим на карту, то ближайшая к Свитино железная дорога - это станция Алабино, рядом с которой расположен одноименный полигон, являющийся выставочным...

t.me

The Russian mayor of Vorkuta has signed a contract and is going to serve in the war zone. Mostly Russian municipal officials are notoriously corrupt and out for themselves. But exceptions do exist.

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[Feanor]

Misc.

Russian Tor SAM getting hit by a Ukrainian loitering munition, apparently the 4th such strike in a month. This is likely the effect of the SB 600 drones arriving.

«Охотники» стали «добычей»

На официальном канале СБУ в youtube появились кадры поражение БПЛА очередного ЗРК Тор. Четвертый ЗРК данного типа пораженный за месяц. Вот так вот охотники стали добычей, дорогие стоящие десятки миллионов $ ЗРК беспомощны от копеечных дронов. Мы наблюдаем…

andrei-bt.livejournal.com

Moscow calling

Работа украинских БПЛА-снарядов (аналоги "Ланцетов" с нормальной аэродинамической схемой) по ЗРК "Тор" и РСЗО "Град" ВС РФ. "Нормальная аэродинамическая схема", она же "классическая" - это определение, если что.

t.me

Ukrainian M109 getting hit by a Russian loitering munition. Location and context unclear.

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Russian barrel-launched Invar-M ATGM from a T-90M striking allegedly a Ukrainian radar. The launch distance is apparently 5060ms. I can't tell what they hit but it goes up pretty noticeably.

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Overrun Ukrainian positions. Location and context unclear. Warning footage of corpses.

Colonelcassad

Позиции ВСУ занятые нашими военными. 18+ Видео: https://t.me/stepnoy_veter

t.me

Ukrainian forces operating the TRF1 somewhere in the Donbas.

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Russian forces brought down a large Ukrainian rotary drone carrying mortar shells.

Colonelcassad

В зоне СВО наши бойцы сбили вражеский дрон.

t.me

Ukrainian M113 and BTR-4 destroyed. location and context unclear. This might be Artemovsk/Bakhmut, that road bend with the destroyed BTR-4.

Colonelcassad

Еще два уничтоженных БТРа ВСУ - американский М113 и украинский БТР-4.

t.me

Ukrainian M1083 Oshkosh truck knocked out by Russian mortar fires.

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There are reports of a Ukrainian Su-27 pilot KIA right after a recent mass Shahed strike. It's possible that this is a friendly fire incident. It's also possible Russian engaged the jets trying to shoot down the Shaheds.

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Ukrainian forces have captured an intact Lancet loitering munition that failed to explode.

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Russian Buk and S-300 TEL mockups through the lens of a Ukrainian UAV. Note the mockups are clearly quite primitive and thus discovered.

Moscow calling

Российские макеты ЗРК "Бук" и С-300 в объективе украинского БПЛА Shark. Как видите, качество обьпктива БПЛА более чем важно.

t.me

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A breakdown of the Shahed drones Russia is sourcing from Iran reveals many western components. Iran has been under sanctions for many decades and has gotten good at sourcing sanctioned goods.

Разборка «Шахедов» - комплектующие

Разборка Шахедов - комплектующие - Япония, Китай, США. Конструкция достаточно примитивная лакончиная. Вот не пойму, если там вынуждены у Ирана такие достаточно простые БПЛА закупать, то не логично было бы предположить, что все эти многомиллиардные проектытипа Охотник-Б…

andrei-bt.livejournal.com

Ukraine using civilian trucks to transport rockets.

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A rare Ukrainian Kevlar-E ersatz IFV spotted. It's a 2S1 chassis with a Shturm combat module.

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Ukrainian forces show off an extremely rare captured GAZ Vodnik.

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Ukraine has begun mounting K-1 tiles on their Leo-2A4s.

Colonelcassad

Относительно кустарного оснащения "Леопардов" 2А4 динамической защитой "Контакт-1", то это вполне логичное решение в условиях высокого насыщения линии фронта противотанковыми средствами. Еще опыт боев под Аль-Бабом в 2016-м году между турками и ИГИЛ показал слабую защищенность турецких 2А4...

t.me

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Russian BTR-82A in Ukraine uparmored with rails.

Рельсовая броня

Рельсовая пушка всем известна, а вот рельсовая броня это новинка. Нужно выдать премию имени НИИ Стали этим изобретателям.

andrei-bt.livejournal.com

NATO/EU.

Challenger 2s arriving in Ukraine.

Видео прибывших Challenger 2

Министр обороны Украины Алексей Резников во вторник (28 марта) обнародовал видеозапись британских танков Challenger 2, которые недавно прибыли в Украину. Резников разместил в своем аккаунте в Твиттере видео, на котором он забирается в одну из машин и благодарит министра обороны…

andrei-bt.livejournal.com

There are reports that France intends to purchase 40 Mirages from the UAE to transfer to Ukraine. This comes after reports that Ukrainian pilots were training on Mirages in France.

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All 3 Portuguese Leo2A6s have reportedly arrived in Ukraine.

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I believe this is the first sighting of the CRARRV, CR 1 based ARV, in Ukrainian service.

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First sighting of the Crotale NG SAM in Ukraine. Given the recent losses in Strela and Osa SHORAD, these are much needed replacements.

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I believe this is a first sighting of the Swedish RBS-56 BILL 2 in Ukrainian service.

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Ukrainian service members training in Germany.

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Marders arriving in Ukraine. 40 total have been handed over so far. Given German plans for Puma production, further handovers of Marders are very likely.

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First sighting of AMX-10RCs in Ukrainian service.

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Strykers heading through Germany, presumably to Ukraine.

Рыбарь

Наш подписчик заснял передвижение по Германии еще одной колонны военной техники западного производства. На этот раз в кадре переброска как минимум четырех американских бронетранспортеров Stryker по автобану А4 через Дрезден в направлении Польши. На колесной бронетехнике демонтированы башни и...

t.me

TOW Bunker Buster missiles have shown up in Ukraine.

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[Rob c]

hat's mean everything from the West is not free from disinformation and propaganda. This means for non western especially those in the fences, doesn't mean has to take everything from West as truths.

This is correct when applied to western media and to a lesser extent western governments , however the scale of disinformation from Russia is of several magnitudes higher than what would come from most western governments who's statements are in the main are based on facts, but they do at times make significant omissions as opposed to direct falsehoods. In other words they will tell the truth but not the whole truth which can lead to misinterpretation. The back ground reason that they don't go to the level of the Russians is the significantly lower levels of corruption in the society of these countries in general. I do remember a post some time ago in which a ex Finnish intelligence experiences in Russian some years ago were referred too in regard to the general level of honesty in Russian society and the reasons for this, did you read this? There were several other references about that time.
There would be no government in the world that does not corrupt the truth from time to time to a greater or lesser extent. However in general, western in Governments this as I have said before, this is more of a case of omission to give a false impression than a direct lie.

 

[KipPotapych]

In other news, their wwas a big explosion in Ternopil, with a lot of misinformation surrounding it. A bunch of russian channels, tried to pass explosions in Syira and Iraq as the explosion in ternopil (which is sad, russian cyber patriots need to do better), but a few footages out seem to be more credible. rybar in particular is claiming it was an attack on a rail station.

According to rybar, it was a strike on the rail manufacturing and repair plant (my interpretation of the Google translate below):

But we can, with reference to our own undercover sources, confirm that a productive blow was delivered to the Ternopil Railway Mechanical Repair Plant. Most likely, the plant's capacities were used for the restoration and modernization of military equipment.

From:

Рыбарь

В районе 22 часов ВС РФ начали наносить удары крылатыми ракетами и БЛА «Герань» по объектам в центральной и западной Украине. Подтверждены попадания в Тернополе и Киеве. Команде Рыбаря удалось установить один из пораженных объектов — это было сделано благодаря источникам на местах, а не GEOINT...

t.me

And a video of the explosion (authenticity is questionable? I don’t know):

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Мощнейший взрыв: ВМФ России нанёс удар по целям в Тернополе После прилетов ракет в районе города сильнейший пожар t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Videos of another strike, in Khmelnytskyi, on the other hand, appear to be legit and that one, by the looks and sounds of it, was at an ammo dump. Another version suggests an oil/fuel storage facility was hit, but it seems to me the former is more likely. The second link shows a video of one of the big explosions (various sources suggest there were up to 10) and you can hear the smaller ones going in the “background”, which suggests to me it was not a fuel storage, but who knows.

Рыбарь

О поражении склада боеприпасов ВСУ в Хмельницком Утром 13 мая появились эффектные кадры детонации из окрестностей Хмельницкого. На видео четко различимы несколько мощных взрывов. Судя по записи, целью удара ВС РФ стала база хранения авиационных боеприпасов (в/ч А3013) на западной окраине...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Момент взрыва в Хмельницком вблизи. Интересный "стебелек"

t.me

P. S. Before joining this forum, I have never used Telegram for purposes other than communication.

 

[Omo23]

4 aircraft all shot down around the same time? Shortly after Ukraine received an assortment of mid-range and long-range western SAMs? I suppose it's possible. I suspect a Ukrainian op is more likely.

It totally impossible to shot down 4 of your in your own airspace.

 

[Feanor]

It totally impossible to shot down 4 of your in your own airspace.

Not impossible but unlikely. Timing, and if the nature of the aircraft is accurate, suggest intent. And it's consistent with other factors as well as previous actions.

 

[KipPotapych]

^ I saw a “theory” bouncing around on a couple of Russian Telegram channels that they were shot down by AAM’s and the involving parties likely took off from none other but the Mirgorod airfield. Not sure if you remember, but we had a brief discussion back in… January or February (?) in regards to why it is still operational. Any thoughts on that “theory”? And why is that base still a thing?

 

[ngatimozart]

It totally impossible to shot down 4 of your in your own airspace.

Who says that? The possibility exists that it will occur. The probability of such an act occurring is low but not zero.

^ I saw a “theory” bouncing around on a couple of Russian Telegram channels that they were shot down by AAM’s and the involving parties likely took off from none other but the Mirgorod airfield. Not sure if you remember, but we had a brief discussion back in… January or February (?) in regards to why it is still operational. Any thoughts on that “theory”? And why is that base still a thing?

It has been suggested that the AAMRAM was used.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1657639644954079232

Videos of the shootdowns.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1657502865286471680

Allegedly photo of Russian beach defences in Crimea.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1657638295784898560

Footage of Russian MTLB being attacked by a FVP loitering munition. Video is from both Ukrainian and Russian sources of the attack.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1657550662698246144

Video of Ukrainian deep air strike into Luhansk.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1657113560697262087

Allegedly remains of Storm Shadow missile used in Luhansk air strike.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1657543222300667904

Series of videos of Ukrainian 56th Motorised Brigade seizing a series of Russian positions.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1657161435762290689

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1657516903634546692

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1657518073723625472

Ukrainian Bradley IFV in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/InUAOfficial/status/1657438055354056706

Oryx estimation of Russian IFV losses.

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1657433015629279232

Ukrainian video on its indigenous Oplot tank.

https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1657060299847901185

 

[Omo23]

Not impossible but unlikely. Timing, and if the nature of the aircraft is accurate, suggest intent. And it's consistent with other factors as well as previous actions.

A very terrible friendly fire it is...and this solidify the panick in the Russian camp.

 

[Feanor]

Ukrainian forces have retaken the ruins of Novoselkovo. This small village was extremely contested and reduced to literally rubble. Since the village directly behind it, Kuz'movka, lies in a depression, Russian forces withdrew to nearby hills. It's unclear if this is the beginning of a more significant Ukrainian push.

Colonelcassad

❗️ Сватовский участок фронта и бои за Куземовку обстановка по состоянию на 16.00 14 мая 2023 года На Сватовском участке фронта длительное время ведутся вялотекущие боевые действия в районе Новоселовского и Куземовки. Первый населённый пункт был оставлен российскими войсками, потому что...

t.me

https://rybar.ru/piwigo/upload/2023/05/14/20230514160254-c7c1d92a.jpg?utm_source=t.me&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=t.me&utm_referrer=t.me

 

[contricusc]

Before last year invasion, Putin already talk about his red line on Ukraine. Most everyone in the West agree he will not going to invade, and call it his red line as a bluff. Well February last year, he call that bluff.

Personally for the sake of the world, I do hope he's bluffing on nuclear threat. However he also keep raising that tone on Russia existential threat. So let's see if he's bluffing this time. However last year invasion shown Putin and Russian Elites don't follow Western logic.

It’s all about the perceived consequences. Before the invasion, the Biden administration made big efforts to suggest there will be no consequences if Russia makes a small military operation in Ukraine. It was obviously a trap for Putin, which he fell into. He even named his invasion as a “special military operation” in the hope that the Americans will look the other way. But it was a trap and he is now caught in this quagmire with no good exit options.

Now, if the the Americans would want Russia to use tactical nukes, they could potentially fool them into believing there will be no consequences, but I don’t think the US administration wants to escalate it to this level, as the current situation is very favorable to the US. As long as the US explicitly tells Russia not to use nukes because there would be severe consequences if they do, Putin will not use nukes.

The same would have happened with the invasion if Trump was POTUS, because Trump would have explicitely told Putin not to invade. Even now, Trump is pretending that he would put a quick end to the war if he is elected president again, as he would force both sides to the negotiating table. But this is getting political so I will stop here, but I think you get my point.

Russia’s so called red lines are red only if the US doesn’t threaten retaliation, because they know very well they are in the wrong in this conflict.

 

[swerve]

NATO/EU.

There are reports that France intends to purchase 40 Mirages from the UAE to transfer to Ukraine. This comes after reports that Ukrainian pilots were training on Mirages in France.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Presumably the UAE's Mirage 2000-9. 40 is an interesting number. It's not the entire surviving fleet, AFAIK. They're listed as having almost 60. But it's more than those upgraded from Mirage 2000AD.

 

[KipPotapych]

^ That’s not what happened. (<- referred to a post that has been moved to another thread)


In other news, plot thickens, lol. The Washington Post article today makes more revelations about Prigozhin. Allegedly, of course, and according to the previously leaked documents.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/

It is behind a paywall, so I’ll copy and paste a few excerpts:

In late January, with his mercenary forces dying by the thousands in a fight for the ruined city of Bakhmut, Wagner Group owner Yevgeniy Prigozhin made Ukraine an extraordinary offer.

Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them. Prigozhin conveyed the proposal to his contacts in Ukraine’s military intelligence directorate, with whom he has maintained secret communications during the course of the war, according to previously unreported U.S. intelligence documents leaked on the group-chat platform Discord.[…]

Two Ukrainian officials confirmed that Prigozhin has spoken several times to the Ukrainian intelligence directorate, known as HUR. One official said that Prigozhin extended the offer regarding Bakhmut more than once, but that Kyiv rejected it because officials don’t trust Prigozhin and thought his proposals could have been disingenuous.

A U.S. official also cautioned that there are similar doubts in Washington about Prigozhin’s intentions. The Ukrainian and U.S. officials spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive information.[…]

Other leaked documents reveal Russian Defense Ministry officials privately wondering how to respond to Prigozhin’s criticism of the military’s performance and his demands for more resources, which they apparently conceded were not illegitimate grievances. The documents also speak to a power struggle between Prigozhin and top officials, including Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.

Against that tense backdrop, Prigohzin has carried on a secret relationship with Ukrainian intelligence that, in addition to phone calls, includes in-person meetings with HUR officers in an unspecified country in Africa, one document states.[…]

The leaked U.S. intelligence shows Prigozhin bemoaning the heavy toll that fighting has taken on his own forces and urging Ukraine to strike harder against Russian troops.

According to one document, Prigozhin told a Ukrainian intelligence officer that the Russian military was struggling with ammunition supplies. He advised Ukrainian forces to push forward with an assault on the border of Crimea, which Russia has illegally annexed, while Russian troop morale was low. The report also referred to other intelligence noting that Prigozhin was aware of plummeting morale among Wagner forces and that some of his fighters had balked at orders to deploy in the Bakhmut area under heavy fire, for fear of suffering more casualties.[…]

In wartime, it is not unusual for opposing parties to maintain some form of communication. And the documents don’t reveal Prigozhin’s intention in talking to his erstwhile foes in Ukraine. In an interview, a Ukrainian official characterized the contacts in the spirit of “keeping your friends close and your enemies closer.”[…]

 

[ngatimozart]

^ That’s not what happened.


In other news, plot thickens, lol. The Washington Post article today makes more revelations about Prigozhin. Allegedly, of course, and according to the previously leaked documents.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/05/14/prigozhin-wagner-ukraine-leaked-documents/

It is behind a paywall, so I’ll copy and paste a few excerpts:

And Ukraine rightly, didn't trust him. More to the point Putin may take that offer as treason and Prigozhin may be defenestrated. Putin has quite low tolerance for such actions.

 

[Larry_L]

Presumably the UAE's Mirage 2000-9. 40 is an interesting number. It's not the entire surviving fleet, AFAIK. They're listed as having almost 60. But it's more than those upgraded from Mirage 2000AD.

I have been hoping for some secret way Ukraine would have better aircraft for their offensive, but this is probably not it. The Drive has put out a report that conflicts with information provided by Intelligence Online. It seems more likely that Indonesia will be getting the bulk of these aircraft while the rest will be recovered by France. The language is mostly the same that we hear all along, like "nothing is off the table" and "Ukraine has other needs". An unnamed official has said that “No buy-back for shipment to Ukraine is envisaged at this stage,”

Quote: “Regarding deliveries [of fighter jets] to Ukraine, we must study requests on a case-by-case basis and leave all the doors open,” Gassilloud said, after talks in London with British counterparts, including U.K. Defense Minister Ben Wallace.

Ukraine Situation Report: France Denies It's Looking To Buy Back UAE's Mirage Jets For Kyiv

France says it is not looking to transfer Mirage fighters from the UAE to Ukraine after a report claiming that was the case surfaced.

www.thedrive.com

On the positive side the UK announced that they will begin "basic training" for Ukraine pilots.

Quote: "This summer we will commence an elementary flying phase for cohorts of Ukrainian pilots to learn basic training. This will adapt the programe used by UK pilots to provide Ukrainians with piloting skills they can apply a different kind of aircraft. This training goes hand in hand with UK efforts to work with other countries on providing F16 jets – Ukraine’s fighter jets of choice. "

PM welcomes President Zelenskyy to the UK ahead of anticipated Ukrainian military surge

President Zelenskyy has arrived in the UK this morning for discussions with the Prime Minister on Ukraine’s ongoing military resistance to Putin’s brutal invasion.

www.gov.uk

 

[Larry_L]

There are reports that Russia's 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade has lost two Colonels on the southern flanks of Bakhmut. It is unclear exactly what is happening here. Ukraine is losing ground inside the city while gaining ground on the flanks. In any case they have continued fixing Russian forces attention on this area while opening up the envelopment, allowing a withdrawal from the city if they wish. For awhile it looked like leaving the city would result in heavy losses.

 

[Feanor]

Update. Mar. 29th-Apr. 1st

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Ukrainian mobilization efforts, Odessa.

Colonelcassad

Раздача повесток аниматорам в Одессе. Мобилизация на Украине проходит нормально" (с) Данилов

t.me

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Allegedly Ukrainian infantry withdrawing after a failed attack, Zaporozhye region.

Colonelcassad

Бегство пехоты ВСУ после неудачной атаки на Запорожском направлении. Видео https://t.me/vladlentatarsky

t.me

Russian Su-25s lobbing rockets in Zaporozhye. Note they're so low that the UAV filming this is above them.

Colonelcassad

Штурмовики Су-25 работают по позициям ВСУ на Запорожском направлении.

t.me

Russian Giatsint-B fires, Zaporozhye region. Note pre-war the Giatsint family of howitzers was almost completely withdrawn from service, only a few remained in Coastal Troops. With the losses taken in this war they became a prime candidate for reactivation. As a result they are now far more common in both their towed and SP variant.

Colonelcassad

Артиллеристы Южного военного округа громят противника @za_froht

t.me

Russian GMZ-3 minelayer working in Zaporozhye region.

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vk.com

Oskol Front.

Russia apparently striking Ukrainian positions in the woods of Kremennaya, then assaulting the position. Ukrainian troops appear to withdraw.

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vk.com

Allegedly a Ukrainian armored vehicle burns near Balka Zhuravka.

Colonelcassad

В лесопосадке горит и детонирует бронемашина хохла. Будни войны, фронт Сватово-Кременная, участок Макеевке-Площанка-балка Журавка. https://t.me/vysokygovorit/11158

t.me

Apparently a Ukrainian POW captured by Russian forces near Kremennaya.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian strikes landing in Kharkov.

Colonelcassad

Харьков. Взрывы продолжают греметь.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

The Kharkov prison got hit. Allegedly a piece of it was being used as a Ukrainian staging area.

Colonelcassad

Последствия ночных прилетов по располаге ВСУ на территории харьковской тюрьмы.

t.me

LDNR Front.

Ukrainian 2S1, SUV, and a UAZ van destroyed near Seversk.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian infantry engaged on the streets of Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

Уличные бои в западной части Артемовска. Видео со стороны ВСУ.

t.me

Allegedly Ukrainian Grad getting hit near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Allegedly a Ukrainian missile strike against the AZOM factory in Artemovsk/Bakhmut. The facility fell to Wagner forces.

Moscow calling

Прилёт, предположительно, ракеты "Точка-У" (хотя, возможно, и JDAM) по занятому бойцами т.н. "ЧВК "Вагнер" заводу АЗОМ.

t.me

Ukrainian POWs allegedly captured by Wagner forces in Artemovsk/Bakhmut. I count 19.

Colonelcassad

⚡️ Эксклюзив. Бойцы ЧВК "Вагнер" во время штурма вражеских позиций в Бахмуте взяли в плен группу националистов. ㅤ "Музыканты" вступили в бой с превосходящими силами противника. Преимущественно мобилизованные. Выжившие проявили благоразумие и сложили оружие. К ним, как к пленным...

t.me

Wagner forces raising flags on a tall buildings in Artemovsk/Bakhmut. With hindsight we know that Ukrainian forces will end up in a very small perimeter on the western outskirts.

Moscow calling

Съёмка с БПЛА бойцов т.н. "ЧВК "Вагнер". Над самой высокой многоэтажкой в центральной части Бахмута поднят флаг "Вагнера". Данная съёмка подтверждает занятие бойцами "Вагнера" территории центрального рынка и Бахмутской набережной.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Заснеженный Артемовск. 31 марта 2023 года. На одном из зданий можно заметить флаг ЧВК "Вагнер".

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Ukrainian M113 captured near Artemovsk/Bakhmut by Wagner forces.

Война Z Украина

Трофейный М113 в руках ЧВК Вагнер на Бахмутском направлении.

t.me

A Ukrainian Strela-10 somewhere near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A Ukrainian M113 unit somewhere near Chasov Yar. Note distinct camo pattern. It's clearly UA pixel painted over their desert color.

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vk.com

Ukrainian MRAP in Chasov Yar. The town is a major artery for troops and supplies towards Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian artillery hitting a Ukrainian mortar team. Note some appear to be wearing partly civilian attire. Avdeevka.

Народная милиция ДНР

Маскарад не помог – переодетые украинские боевики были выявлены и уничтожены В нарушение правил и обычаев ведения войны, украинские боевики на Авдеевском направлении в ходе своих действий переодеваются в гражданскую одежду чтобы избежать обнаружения с БЛА и ликвидации. Но расчёту БЛА 87 полка 1...

t.me

Ukrainian IFVs getting hit near Avdeevka.

Colonelcassad

Уничтожение БМП ВСУ на Авдеевском направлении. Маскировочная сетка не помогла.

t.me

Footage from March 19th of destroyed Russian vehicles near Avdeevka. We had some previous footage of those failed attacks.

Moscow calling

Но пока война продолжает собирать свою кровавую жатву... Def Mon (Twitter) и @GloOouD сообщают о разбитой российской технике, в количестве 16 шт. UPD Фотографии сделаны 19 марта под Авдеевкой.

t.me

Ukrainian tax office destroyed in Avdeevka after a Russian strike.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Reportedly two civilians were KIA in Avdeevka, presumably from Russian shelling.

Moscow calling

Авдеевка, сегодня 5-месячный мальчик и его бабушка погибли в результате обстрела, мать и отец ребёнка ранены, их дом сгорел. А ещё вчера родителей уговаривали эвакуироваться из Авдеевки... Уважаемые подписчики из Донбасса! Если вы - мирные жители, и имеете малейшую возможность покинуть зону...

t.me

3 destroyed Ukrainian Mastiff MRAPs and a BMP-1 near Vodyanoe. Note this area hasbeen contested for a while, and these vehicles might have been lost during Ukrainian counter-attack attempts that we saw here previously.

GREY ZONE

Уничтоженная силами ВС России украинская техника в районе населённого пункта Водяное, что в Донецкой области. Как минимум противником было потеряно 3 единицы бронеавтомобиля MRAP, а также БМП-1.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

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vk.com

Russian forces in Mar'inka, we can see BMP-2 fires against alleged Ukrainian positions. We also see a rare Kamaz Grad variant. To the best of my knowledge only one artillery btln of such vehicles were ever received.

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vk.com

Russian incendiary munitions landing, Ugledar.

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vk.com

The ruins of the summer cottages in Ugledar. This is the area the 155th Marines have a foothold in.

Colonelcassad

То, что осталось от угледарских дач после наиболее интенсивного периода боев. Видео: https://t.me/TOF_VMF

t.me

DNR artillery hitting Ukrainian infantry in a treeline.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Battle damage in Druzhkovka from a Russian strike. The target was allegedly a Ukrainian staging area.

Colonelcassad

Последствия удара ВС РФ в Дружковке (Славянско-Краматорская агломерация). Прошедшая ночь прошла под знаком ударов по располагам ВСУ.

t.me

Some footage of the ruins of Severodonetsk. Unlike Mariupol', there are no significant reconstruction efforts underway here.

Moscow calling

Северодонецк, ЛНР. Руины домов как немое железобетонное напоминание о том, что война - это страшно...

t.me

Russia.

Colonel General Teplinskiy, commander of the VDV, has been recalled from vacation and is heading to the front line in Ukraine. It's unclear what he will be taking command of.

VK.com | VK

vk.com