The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[ngatimozart]

This seems to be why Ukraine hasn't begun their offensive yet. Russia has a breather and it's very obvious at least from all the information I've seen, that Ukraine has two main groupings, one near Artemovsk/Bakhmut, the other in Zaporozhye. If Russian command is asleep at the wheel, they're in trouble.

I still am of the opinion that the Ukrainians have fixed Russia in Bakhmut and are using that to cause as many Russian casualties as possible. It is claimed that the Ukrainians have deliberately turned it into a meat grinder and are only supporting it enough to keep the Russians interested and prolong the infliction of casualties and material loss on them. Russian can't afford to ignore Bakmut anymore because of the possibility of an attempted Ukrainian breakthrough there, and probability of subsequent loss of the Donetsk region to Ukraine.

 

[Feanor]

I still am of the opinion that the Ukrainians have fixed Russia in Bakhmut and are using that to cause as many Russian casualties as possible. It is claimed that the Ukrainians have deliberately turned it into a meat grinder and are only supporting it enough to keep the Russians interested and prolong the infliction of casualties and material loss on them. Russian can't afford to ignore Bakmut anymore because of the possibility of an attempted Ukrainian breakthrough there, and probability of subsequent loss of the Donetsk region to Ukraine.

The MSRs in and out of it and even around neighboring towns and villages are littered with destroyed Ukrainian vehicles. This point of view held some merit while Ukraine had a relatively open supply route. As soon as Russia had operational encirclement, this could no longer be the case.

EDIT: A couple of obituaries for Ukrainian service members mentioned them being killed in the recent strike in Pavlograd. Note this doesn't prove much either way, since it's a small town and a major logistical hub where a large explosion occurred. Pure odds would have some Ukrainian service members hit by the explosion.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Larry_L]

Several sources are reporting a drone attack on the Kremlin. The report is that several drones were deactivated without damage or casualties. Some of the media shows a fire on top of the dome. At most the damage appears to be minimal.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1653725715030736901

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1653726743658627072

Edit: This is a video of one drone getting destroyed. Oddly enough I see 2 people climbing a catwalk up the left side of the dome as the drone comes in. I really begin to question what is actually going on here.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1653734103269662721

 

[Larry_L]

Prigozhin states that he found the weapons cache he was looking for in Soledar. He claims that there are 300,000 boxes of weapons and ammunition, and he can equip a army of a million people with it. I could not identify the rifles, but the machine guns look like Maxims. I find it hard to believe that Ukraine did not destroy this cache before leaving. Possibly it was booby trapped and was deactivated?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1653405851082711041

 

[Feanor]

Prigozhin states that he found the weapons cache he was looking for in Soledar. He claims that there are 300,000 boxes of weapons and ammunition, and he can equip a army of a million people with it. I could not identify the rifles, but the machine guns look like Maxims. I find it hard to believe that Ukraine did not destroy this cache before leaving. Possibly it was booby trapped and was deactivated?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1653405851082711041

They're truly gigantic WWII and pre-WWII caches of weapons. Moving or destroying them is very hard. On the flip side they're likely full of stuff like DP-27s and Mosin rifles. Maxim guns for sure.

The rifle he shows at the beginning is a joke, but the first box he opens allegedly has Thompson submachineguns, the next has PPSh and PPS submachineguns, then Maxim guns, Degtyarev machineguns. While we can't confirm, this makes total sense. Of course one must ask, does either side have a shortage of small arms? If no, this antiquated kit is of limited value. If I was Russian leadership of course I'd be hauling away as much as I can away from Soledar, considering the impending Ukrainian counter-offensive.

 

[seaspear]

So he will not be complaining about a shortage of weapons and ammunition

 

[KipPotapych]

^ He already did. After the “Kremlin attack”, he said something along the lines of “I am not really concerned about what happens there, but about the sufficient supply of artillery shells and other ammunition to his troops at the frontline”. Something like that.

Jokes aside though, what they found, while a mother load, is not particularly useful. But at least we now know the Ukes got their Maxims from they have been seen pulling around.

@Larry_L, Prigozhin mentioned it was all boobytrapped through out.

 

[vikingatespam]

They're truly gigantic WWII and pre-WWII caches of weapons. Moving or destroying them is very hard. On the flip side they're likely full of stuff like DP-27s and Mosin rifles. Maxim guns for sure.

The rifle he shows at the beginning is a joke, but the first box he opens allegedly has Thompson submachineguns, the next has PPSh and PPS submachineguns, then Maxim guns, Degtyarev machineguns. While we can't confirm, this makes total sense. Of course one must ask, does either side have a shortage of small arms? If no, this antiquated kit is of limited value. If I was Russian leadership of course I'd be hauling away as much as I can away from Soledar, considering the impending Ukrainian counter-offensive.

Thompson SMG are worth a lot on GunBroker. : )

Old Lend lease stuff ?

 

[KipPotapych]

^ That is what he said, part of the lend lease from years back.

Yep, value wise, there is a lot of coin in there. Battlefield value, not so much. Why it was still there in the first place, a few Maxims aside, haha.

 

[Feanor]

^ That is what he said, part of the lend lease from years back.

Yep, value wise, there is a lot of coin in there. Battlefield value, not so much. Why it was still there in the first place, a few Maxims aside, haha.

Because nobody did anything with it. Pre-sanctions Russia was steadily selling off Mosins on the open market, one of the reasons they used to be so cheap even in the US. But a lot of this stuff is hard to sell legally. Submachineguns are valuable but also tightly regulated even in relatively gun-loving places like the US. In many places nobody would be allowed to own anything he just listed.

For battlefield value, in close quarters, urban assaults, submachineguns have their place and quite a few of those are among the weapons listed. And Ukraine has been using Maxim guns successfully since '14. Note this isn't a great example to follow but if you have to, you have to. You fight with what you have not with what you want. Which is why the question becomes - is there a shortage of small arms? If the answer is no, then this stuff is basically useless. Mostly valuable to collectors and enthusiasts with the biggest market, the US, effectively off limits to Russia.

 

[KipPotapych]

^ Yep, I agree.

One could buy an SKS here in Canada for about $250 not long ago. Over the past few years prices went up steadily though. One would be looking at about $700 today, I believe, and it likely won’t be a Russian made; not that they aren’t available, but it would likely be a Chinese one on the shelf.

Anything auto is prohibited here as well. Semi-auto will likely soon to follow though.

A bit of an off topic, I guess.

 

[vonnoobie]

... biggest question... weapons stored in a salt mine.... How much of it if any would actually be usable under those storage conditions? If only stored for a short period good find for Wagner, bad loss of AFU but if that stuff has been sitting for years and years if not decades then I doubt much of it at all would be able to be put to use.

 

[swerve]

Salt mines are usually very dry, so my first thought is that corrosion is unlikely to be a problem.

 

[seaspear]

Wagner may have clients overseas they can flog them off to

 

[Feanor]

... biggest question... weapons stored in a salt mine.... How much of it if any would actually be usable under those storage conditions? If only stored for a short period good find for Wagner, bad loss of AFU but if that stuff has been sitting for years and years if not decades then I doubt much of it at all would be able to be put to use.

They're stored in oil, wrapped, and boxed up, in a dry, cool place. They're likely in excellent conditions. But it definitely been there for decades, not years.

Wagner may have clients overseas they can flog them off to

Russia has gigantic similar stockpiles. They haven't manage to flog them off to anyone. Why would this be any different? Soviet-era stocks of outdated weapons pre-war were truly massive. To the point where in Russia companies sold refurbished armored vehicles as recreational off-road vehicles at the price point of a used SUV. I suppose if Wagner and not the Russian government gets to dispose of these, it might matter. But for now it's not even clear that anyone can haul these away. Soledar is next to the front line, Ukraine is massing troops for a counter-attack, reportedly north of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, which means Soledar might get retaken in a few weeks. This is an interesting curiosity, likely not going to be significant in the future.

 

[seaspear]

I find it interesting with these gigantic stockpiles and the earlier stories of troops showing the issuing of weapons of poor condition this seems to show poor organisation and planning

 

[vikingatespam]

In the last few days there have been multiple attacks on RU fuel storage facilities and rail lines and refineries. I found this pic, but I cant find the original place.



This has the smell of shaping operations - concentrated efforts at a single leg of the RU army.

 

[Feanor]

I find it interesting with these gigantic stockpiles and the earlier stories of troops showing the issuing of weapons of poor condition this seems to show poor organisation and planning

Of course. This isn't news. Russia is a major producer of small arms. If troops got bad weapons it had little to do with total shortages and mostly had to do with garbage organization and planning.

EDIT: To be clear, weapons pulled from storage might be bad and might get assigned to someone while it gets sorted out. But deploying with weapons in poor condition are another story. That artillery-man on the 2S3 is something.

In the last few days there have been multiple attacks on RU fuel storage facilities and rail lines and refineries. I found this pic, but I cant find the original place.

View attachment 50475

This has the smell of shaping operations - concentrated efforts at a single leg of the RU army.

The south makes perfect sense, they're going to push in Zaporozhye with quite likely a cross-Dnepr strike in Kherson. The north is more interesting and stranger.

 

[vikingatespam]

The south makes perfect sense, they're going to push in Zaporozhye with quite likely a cross-Dnepr strike in Kherson. The north is more interesting and stranger.

The north attacks were on rail lines and there are pictures of tanker trucks that were derailed from the blast. This was from various posts on the Project Owl Discord channel.

 

[Kamran_Sh]

The Ukrainian capital city of Kyiv has recently made headlines after a Russian surveillance drone was shot down in the area. The incident has caused a stir in the international community, with tensions between Ukraine and Russia already at a boiling point.

As the world watches and waits to see what will happen next, let's take a closer look at what led up to this event and what it could mean for the future.

Background of the Conflict

The conflict between Ukraine and Russia dates back several years. It began in 2014 when Ukraine's pro-Russian President Viktor Yanukovych was ousted from power in a popular uprising. Russia responded by annexing Crimea, a Ukrainian territory, and supporting separatist rebels in the eastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk.

Since then, the conflict has simmered, with sporadic violence breaking out in the disputed regions. The Ukrainian government has accused Russia of arming and supporting the separatist rebels, while Russia has denied any involvement.

The Downed Drone Incident

On April 19, 2023, a Russian surveillance drone was shot down over Kyiv. The drone was reportedly flying over the city when it was targeted by Ukrainian forces. The Russian government has condemned the incident, calling it a violation of international law and demanding an investigation.

The Ukrainian government, for its part, has defended the shooting as a necessary measure to protect its sovereignty. They claim that the drone was flying in Ukrainian airspace and posed a threat to national security.

Impact of the Incident

The downing of the drone has further escalated tensions between Ukraine and Russia. Both sides have issued strongly worded statements, with Russia threatening to take "appropriate measures" and Ukraine vowing to defend itself against any aggression.

The incident has also drawn international attention, with many countries calling for restraint and a peaceful resolution to the conflict. The United States and European Union have both condemned the shooting, while Russia's allies, such as China and Belarus, have expressed support for Moscow.

What's Next?

It's difficult to predict what will happen next in this conflict. The downing of the drone could be a signal that Ukraine is willing to take a more aggressive stance against Russian aggression. It could also be a provocation that leads to further escalation and violence.

One thing is clear, however: the situation in Ukraine remains volatile, and the international community will need to work together to find a peaceful solution. The downing of the drone is just one event in a long-running conflict, and it will take more than just military action to resolve the underlying issues.

Conclusion

The downing of the Russian surveillance drone over Kyiv has added another chapter to the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia. While it's unclear what the future holds, one thing is certain: tensions are high, and the stakes are even higher.

It's important for all parties involved to work towards a peaceful resolution to this conflict. The world is watching, and the consequences of a full-blown war between Ukraine and Russia would be catastrophic. We can only hope that cooler heads will prevail and that a path to peace can be found.