The Dnipro doesn't go all the way up to Donetsk..... Literally about a 100km stretch of land outside your blue circle and its that outside area's where probing attacks have occurred.View attachment 50402
Going to be bit surprise if Ukraine going to launch their counter offensive outside the blue circle area. Simply unless NATO able send unnotice enough amphibious and cross rivers assets to Ukraine.
Without that I don't see how Ukraine going to be able to project enough force across Dniper, overwhelming Russian defense. Ukraine has no AF to counted on (despite all down playing of Russian AF in West) to effectively counter Russian. Thus overwhelming Russian with infantry and armored assets is the most Ukraine can do with what they still have plus whatever NATO manage to send.
NATO supplied Artillery perhaps more accurate then Russian ones. Questions is whether enough quantities already in place. Russian artilery perhaps old tech, but at least they got quantities in their side.
That aside an attack in your blue area would be the dumbest option available. You would literally be going in against what could be argued the most urban dense area of the front line not to mention the defences built up over the years and RU troop concentrations. A successful breach of the lines from Zaporizhzhia potentially allows a push to Melitopol splitting Russian lines in two. The region is far less dense (In Urban terms) and well suited in the summer time to mobile forces moving across it which is apparently what Ukraine has been training up.
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Should note that in terms of railway logistics Crimea is the only safe (To an extent) option open to them at the moment as the line running through Southern Ukraine swings up through Donetsk city and some area's less then 20km from the front lines. In the South the logistics one could argue are a house of cards. If UKR aims to take Melitopol then RU forces east of it are reliant to what can be trucked in which will seriously hamper defensive and offensive operations while everything to the South-West would be reliant on a Road and Rail bridge. Take out the bridge and Kherson/Crimea will not be able to hold indefinitely/
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