The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
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Going to be bit surprise if Ukraine going to launch their counter offensive outside the blue circle area. Simply unless NATO able send unnotice enough amphibious and cross rivers assets to Ukraine.

Without that I don't see how Ukraine going to be able to project enough force across Dniper, overwhelming Russian defense. Ukraine has no AF to counted on (despite all down playing of Russian AF in West) to effectively counter Russian. Thus overwhelming Russian with infantry and armored assets is the most Ukraine can do with what they still have plus whatever NATO manage to send.

NATO supplied Artillery perhaps more accurate then Russian ones. Questions is whether enough quantities already in place. Russian artilery perhaps old tech, but at least they got quantities in their side.
The Dnipro doesn't go all the way up to Donetsk..... Literally about a 100km stretch of land outside your blue circle and its that outside area's where probing attacks have occurred.

That aside an attack in your blue area would be the dumbest option available. You would literally be going in against what could be argued the most urban dense area of the front line not to mention the defences built up over the years and RU troop concentrations. A successful breach of the lines from Zaporizhzhia potentially allows a push to Melitopol splitting Russian lines in two. The region is far less dense (In Urban terms) and well suited in the summer time to mobile forces moving across it which is apparently what Ukraine has been training up.

EDIT:
Should note that in terms of railway logistics Crimea is the only safe (To an extent) option open to them at the moment as the line running through Southern Ukraine swings up through Donetsk city and some area's less then 20km from the front lines. In the South the logistics one could argue are a house of cards. If UKR aims to take Melitopol then RU forces east of it are reliant to what can be trucked in which will seriously hamper defensive and offensive operations while everything to the South-West would be reliant on a Road and Rail bridge. Take out the bridge and Kherson/Crimea will not be able to hold indefinitely/
 
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Redshift

Active Member
Right, it is propagandist for West. Wondering what Western media going call in assassinations in public place. If this is done by Russian, we can be sure it is already up and armed in all Western Media as terorism and human rights violations. Or do we call also Western Propagandist media??
For somebody who claims to be neutral you don't sound it.

A man has been killed

I have no idea who killed this man, but there is plenty of evidence of Russia "assassinating" people on UK soil.
By that logic, then Western media and politicians should not be 'shouting' to whole world on Russian violating human rights even blaming on state terrorism in Ukraine. My point from beginning is 'double standard' of Western media and establishment on reporting this war.

This it is not related to general Western-Russia relationship that more appropriate on other thread. Including now some in West trying to find justification on this assassinations as justified killing. You blow up purposedly a person on a public gathering disregarding collateral damages. That's terrorism no matter who send it.

Thus in this war the quality of both sides media including more and more the western media, is already channeling propagandist. So it is just like Russian media, Both Ukrainian and Western media also have double standard bias on this war. This clear in the way reporting of this assassinations.

This debate become prolonged, because some in here can't accept the view of 'respectfull' Western media already doing double standard on reporting of this war. This is why for most non western, both sides media already become propagandist media.
To be honest , this event, has hardly been reported in the UK at all. Certainly no media frenzy about targeted Vs terrorism.

It is a few dead Russians from an IED, not much compared to the barrage of missiles hitting Kiev is it?

I'm not sure how in your mind you can compare this attack, which would not have happened without the invasion, with the massive number of civilian deaths in Ukraine.

Ananda, you are far from neutral, every post you make shows that, I have no problem with who you support , but why keep pretending to be neutral when you quite obviously aren't?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
I would doubt that UKR has a serious capability (same for RU) to make a forced DNEPR crossing. Consider the efforts put into crossing the Rhine in 1945.

ORKHIV-TOKMAK-BERDIANSK or ORKHIV-MELITOPOL remains a logical route of attack. You have roads to support your logistics and relatively short distances to cut the overland rail line to Crimea.

The RU realize this too and likely put a lot of effort into defense lines. I would hate to be the UKR force that has to de mine a route of advance under fire.
Ukraine has been launching probing attacks across the Dnepr and doing raids on the islands in the middle. This might be intended to test Russian defenses, it might be intended to keep Russian forces on edge and keep them from being sent elsewhere. We don't know. But I wouldn't rule out an attempt to force the Dnepr. Ukraine got some small boats from the US.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
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I'm going to zoom the blue circle on the map, that I've put. The blue circle line include the area of Zaporozhye east of Dniper river up to south of Luhansk. This is the area base on report, that seems where Ukraine masses their troops and reserve.

So including in that blue circle is part of Zaporozhye west of Donetsk. As Ukraine's mostly can only relies on infantry and armored columns doing this counter offensive, I just don't see how they can cross Dniper in large way to overwhelming Russian defense in Dniper banks.

has been launching probing attacks across the Dnepr and doing raids on the islands in the middle
Question is, if they have enough assets to cross Dniper in force. Perhaps small raid to create diversion, but unless there's enough amphibious and cross river assets that NATO has covertly manage to send to them, is there enough for Ukraine to make large counter offensive across Dniper ?

not sure how in your mind you can compare this attack, which would not have happened without the invasion, with the massive number of civilian deaths in Ukraine.
Where do I compare this attack with War in Ukraine? I say again and again, this attack if happen in Western soils, already raise much voices in Western media and politicians as Terrorism attack. However when happening in Russian soil, then there's enough voices in West try to avoid calling this as terrorism attack, tone it down, or even try to find justification on the target. If this not a double standard, and I don't know what else to call it.

you are far from neutral, every post you make shows that,
If neutral on this attack, then in my post I already I'm not neutral on this attack. I'm condemn this attack as terrorism act. I don't care whose the target, but if the attack is done disregarding the civilian collateral damage, then it is terrorism act. For that I'm not neutral.

Doesn't mean I'm supporting attack on Civilians anywhere including in Ukraine. However if you compare this terrorism attack with war, then will you also agree US civilian 'collateral damage' (as Pentagon like to call) on Iraq and Afghanistan also as Terrorism?

There's different between Collateral damage in war and blatant purposely collateral casualties on terrorism attack.

If you talk on Neutral in this war, then I'm like most Asian Nations and Asian Publics (especially outside US close allies nations) as on the 'fence' in this War. We are acknowledge Russian fault on this War, but many Asian public and even politicians don't buy 'West' politicians and public opinion on this war as simple 'unprovoked' attack by Russia.

If that possition considered as non neutral on some using 'western' standard, so be it. Perhaps why most Asian and other in Africa and South America still engaging Russia, still doing business with Russia, also going to be considered by some as not neutral, well so be it also.
 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
Numerous Russian and Ukrainian sources are reporting that there is a massive pull out of UA troops from Bakhmut and Wagner moving in aggressively in large numbers. There are also numerous (some report three some report more) explosions reported in Melitopol. Wondering if this is the beginning of something…

Edit: sorry, didn’t provide any sources, but here is one for pull out, for example (Russian, so use Google translate or something skmilar): ВСУ начали массово покидать Артемовск. Like I said, saw it reported in numerous places.
 
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vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Ukraine has been launching probing attacks across the Dnepr and doing raids on the islands in the middle. This might be intended to test Russian defenses, it might be intended to keep Russian forces on edge and keep them from being sent elsewhere. We don't know. But I wouldn't rule out an attempt to force the Dnepr. Ukraine got some small boats from the US.
Unless the RU are already in retreat, or drunk off their minds 24/7, UKR has no way to support and supply more than a token force across the Dnepr. 40 boats in RU artillery range do not a Rhine crossing make. If RU couldnt keep Kherson, I very much doubt the UKR can gain a serious foothold on the S banks. I can only assume the probing and raids are to keep the RU units somewhat pinned in place. In reality, I assume both forces thinned out the units along the river.

The only place to make for a real victory is cutting the overland supply route to Crimea. Any other geographic goal is a road to nowhere. In that case the only other type of victory is to lay a serious beatdown on a pocket of RU troops while suffering few casualties.

I have to wonder if there is going to be a counterattack - except to backhand-slap a sector of advancing RU. At least there you woudnt have to worry about grinding though set lines of defense.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Unless the RU are already in retreat, or drunk off their minds 24/7, UKR has no way to support and supply more than a token force across the Dnepr. 40 boats in RU artillery range do not a Rhine crossing make. If RU couldnt keep Kherson, I very much doubt the UKR can gain a serious foothold on the S banks. I can only assume the probing and raids are to keep the RU units somewhat pinned in place. In reality, I assume both forces thinned out the units along the river.

The only place to make for a real victory is cutting the overland supply route to Crimea. Any other geographic goal is a road to nowhere. In that case the only other type of victory is to lay a serious beatdown on a pocket of RU troops while suffering few casualties.

I have to wonder if there is going to be a counterattack - except to backhand-slap a sector of advancing RU. At least there you woudnt have to worry about grinding though set lines of defense.
It's the type of situation where they can either hope to fix extra Russian forces to the Dnepr while they drive on Melitopol' or Berdyansk, or where they can make a crossing in the wake of a Ukrainian breakthrough in Zaporozhye after Russian forces have already been moved away from the Dnepr in large number to counter the Ukrainian offensive. Whether they in fact intent to do either one is an open question. But there is continued fighting around the islands in the center, and Ukrainian probing attacks across the river. Maybe it will be nothing. Maybe it will be something.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Numerous Russian and Ukrainian sources are reporting that there is a massive pull out of UA troops from Bakhmut and Wagner moving in aggressively in large numbers. There are also numerous (some report three some report more) explosions reported in Melitopol. Wondering if this is the beginning of something…

Edit: sorry, didn’t provide any sources, but here is one for pull out, for example (Russian, so use Google translate or something skmilar): ВСУ начали массово покидать Артемовск. Like I said, saw it reported in numerous places.
1680759819810.png
Source:

The UKR pull out may have been from the blue bulge in the Russian lines illustrated above. The UKR source cited gives a daily update and he has being saying for last few days that the Russians were pushing the UKR slowly back in order to fully control the city east of the main road that bisects the city centre. In the last couple of days the Russians had pushed the UKR forces from the industrial area that is north of the UKR bulge. This way they were able to fire into the bulge from 3 distinctly separate directions creating serious problems for the UKR forces inside the bulge. Tactical sense would be that the UKR forces retreat from the bulge as their position becomes untenable, and before they are fully enveloped. Note that bakhmut is a bulge in Russian lines, however the Russians are having difficulty controlling the high ground in both the northern and southern ends of the bulge.

It has been reported that UKR are forming 40,000 troops into Storm Brigades for the upcoming offensive.

Task & Purpose item on the Russian AGS-17 grenade launcher. The Ukrainians have started using their grenade launchers in an indirect fire role with UAVs undertaking spotting duties, and this appears to be quite effective. The Russians have attempted it to, but the low level of UAVs available to them has hampered their efforts. It is a quite effective and quick way of utilising suppressive fire and is removing some of the tradition protection of trenches.

UK Forces News discussion on the difficulties that UKR faces in retaking Crimea.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
Now that western tanks are in Ukraine the push is on for Western jets. This is probably just wishful thinking for me, but the possibility is opening up, even in the short term.
Ukraine has announced that it will accept foreign pilots, and support personnel, into it's air force.
The UK has announced that they will train Ukraine's pilots on western aircraft.
At least one American veteran pilot said he would fly for Ukraine.
There is some funding already appropriated.

This would be an expensive undertaking, although it would give Ukraine a much better chance in it's offensive. Can this be done in time. There are subtle clues that it has already started in some form.





 
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The attack towards Tokmak and Melitopol makes the most sense. However it is also the most obvious route and the Russians seem well prepared this time having built numerous fortifications and set up a proper defense in depth, it is going to be very difficult for Ukrainians to punch through, plus Russia still retains superiority in both artillery and air, making the attack even more of a daunting task.

As for Bakhmut it appears the Ukrainians are being pushed across the railway, and are setting up a strong position in a circled area on the map, where they will make their final stand in Bakhmut, or at least until the possible Ukrainian counteroffensive in the region starts. The area consists almost exclusively of high rise buildings making it ideal for Ukrainians to set up their positions.

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There is a rumor circling about there being a tunnel between Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar that Ukrainians are using for reinforcing and supplying their troops. This could explain their ability to offer fierce resistance within the town even though their supply lines are under Russian fire control. I don't know if it is true but we do know there is an extensive tunnel system beneath Bakhmut.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Now that western tanks are in Ukraine the push is on for Western jets. This is probably just wishful thinking for me, but the possibility is opening up, even in the short term.
Ukraine has announced that it will accept foreign pilots, and support personnel, into it's air force.
The UK has announced that they will train Ukraine's pilots on western aircraft.
At least one American veteran pilot said he would fly for Ukraine.
There is some funding already appropriated.

This would be an expensive undertaking, although it would give Ukraine a much better chance in it's offensive. Can this be done in time. There are subtle clues that it has already started in some form.





I wonder what would be most useful, more jets or significant quantities of longer range strike missiles, I suspect the latter.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
There is a rumor circling about there being a tunnel between Bakhmut and Chasiv Yar that Ukrainians are using for reinforcing and supplying their troops. This could explain their ability to offer fierce resistance within the town even though their supply lines are under Russian fire control. I don't know if it is true but we do know there is an extensive tunnel system beneath Bakhmut.
Why are there buckets of destroyed vehicles along the roads into Artemovsk/Bakhmut if there is a tunnel big enough to run supplies into Artemovsk/Bakhmut? Either the tunnel isn't enough to get vehicles through, or it's a myth. I have my doubts either way. Underground elements exist in most Soviet-era industrial complexes, but they typically exist to service the industrial facility, rather then provided connection to other cities (a very expensive affair of questionable utility).
 
Why are there buckets of destroyed vehicles along the roads into Artemovsk/Bakhmut if there is a tunnel big enough to run supplies into Artemovsk/Bakhmut? Either the tunnel isn't enough to get vehicles through, or it's a myth. I have my doubts either way. Underground elements exist in most Soviet-era industrial complexes, but they typically exist to service the industrial facility, rather then provided connection to other cities (a very expensive affair of questionable utility).
The tunnel is not big enough for vehicles, definitely not big enough to supply all of Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut, however its existence would partially alleviate supply and reinforcement issues for Ukrainians. There is no information whether the tunnel existed before or Ukrainians built on already present tunnels to connect the two towns, given how extensively they built underground facilities in Mariupol it's not unimaginable thy would be able to do this. The information came from POW that was captured by Wagner forces, there is a video of the interview which I will try to find but here is one of the channels that talk about the subject, he specifically talks about the tunnels at 1.50 mark.

 

Larry_L

Active Member
I wonder what would be most useful, more jets or significant quantities of longer range strike missiles, I suspect the latter.
I could not answer that question without specifics. I lean toward the missiles, if provided in enough quantity. Ukraine seems to be able to interdict Russian logistics quite well if given the tools. There are strong hints that some types of these weapons are on the way already. Possibly the Migs recently provided are capable of launching longer range air to ground missiles.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I could not answer that question without specifics. I lean toward the missiles, if provided in enough quantity. Ukraine seems to be able to interdict Russian logistics quite well if given the tools. There are strong hints that some types of these weapons are on the way already. Possibly the Migs recently provided are capable of launching longer range air to ground missiles.
Air launched extended range air to ground missiles are an option but I was thinking ground to ground. Aircraft are likely vulnerable in many areas and the support infrastructure is significant. Ideally both options are desirable but extended range strike missiles seems (to me) an easier option.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Hardly an incentive to share stuff. Hope the leaker is discovered and prosecuted.
Or could be deliberate mis-information ?

According to one line:

"One of the slides said 16,000 to 17,500 Russian soldiers had been killed while Ukraine had suffered as many as 71,500 troop deaths."

This doesnt sound like information the Pentagon has used before, and I seriously doubt 71K UKR KIA.
 
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