Germany

[John Fedup]

The only realistic future that has Russian missiles launched against a EU country is the one called " nuclear war ".
Having or not having a battery or so of Arrow 3 in an all-out nuclear war is probably totally irrelevant.
Helping and working on European strategic autonomy and know-how is not irrelevant for Germany, in every possible future.

As I said, I'm not arguing about the Arrow 3 itself.
If most European countries agreed on buying the Arrow, there would be no problem at all.
But Germany is, like always, walking alone...

You could be right about any missile attack leading directly to nuclear war but then again perhaps missiles striking in border areas would not and a gradual extension of missile attacks might proceed without a nuclear response. Certainly any initial missile attack tracking into a large urban area within the NATO sphere would have to be assumed a nuclear threat and stuff then hits the fan.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

My concern is not about the performances of the product.
My concern, and the concern of many, is the political choice behind this deal.
Buying such a product is in plain disagreement with the Strategic Compass and many other European agreements regarding defence.

The point Is not " is there an equivalent option? ".
The point Is that they are ( probably ) buying a product outside of Europe, with zero participation at EU level, without having before asked to the other countries and defence providers for an alternative.
Germany seems to have this behavior of always wanting to be dependent from someone else that is outside of Europe ( Us, China or Russia).

Why didn't they pushed for the Eu-Hydef of Twister program, instead of buying off-the-shelf from Israel?

How much success had European nations have with joint Euro products? How well is the MEADS going?

Let's face it, joint Euro products are doomed to fail, and are a bad business practice. It always starts with good intentions, and ends with bad results.
A single government is enough to impose enough obstacles and bureaucracy to throw off a project (see UK). Having 5 piling up is just asking for trouble.

Now, since this is a time sensitive project, a different approach is needed.
Are there any projects that are European, widely adopted, and successful? Yes. Israeli companies have set up joint ventures in Europe called EuroSpike, EuroTrophy, and EuroPULS.
By partnering with a European defense company, they bring their products to the regional market, adapt them to European standards for interoperability, and produce them locally to ease procurement.

Germany can demand IAI to select a regional partner for a JV, and call it EuroArrow.

Actually, not just Germany. Any European country can make a similar push to try and cash in on this massive deal.

Criticism cannot come without an alternative. Either they propose a similar system with similar capabilities that can be produced in about the same time, with full Euro interoperability, or they can just be happy that Germany has them covered.
Because right now over a dozen countries signed up for a joint defense initiative, and this means there is no intention to keep Arrow non-interoperable with other systems.

EDIT: Furthermore, by buying Arrow 3, they can easily gain access to the developmental Arrow 4 project

 

[swerve]

It would be interesting to compare the Arrow 3 against the upcoming Aster block 2 bmd or why the Aster was not considered
How Europe's Aster Missile Defense Stacks Up Against the Patriot Missile | The National Interest
Arrow 3 Air Defence Missile System, Israel (airforce-technology.com)

Aster block 2 (really a new missile using an Aster 30 booster, according to the published information from when it was first proposed) has been going nowhere for years, last I heard. Enhancements to Aster 30 to improve its BMD performance have been funded & produced, but block 2? A deafening silence. Or are you aware of anything new?

I find it disapppointing. I had hopes when I first read about it, long ago.

 

[swerve]

My concern is not about the performances of the product.
My concern, and the concern of many, is the political choice behind this deal.
Buying such a product is in plain disagreement with the Strategic Compass and many other European agreements regarding defence.

The point Is not " is there an equivalent option? ".
The point Is that they are ( probably ) buying a product outside of Europe, with zero participation at EU level, without having before asked to the other countries and defence providers for an alternative.
Germany seems to have this behavior of always wanting to be dependent from someone else that is outside of Europe ( Us, China or Russia).

Why didn't they pushed for the Eu-Hydef of Twister program, instead of buying off-the-shelf from Israel?

If there isn't a European equivalent, what choice do they have? Buy nothing? What good does that do?

One can criticise the German government for not backing European BMD projects, & thus contributing to the lack of one which could do what the Germans now want, but that's in the past. The events of the last year have given a kick up the arse to European defence thinking, & the Germans now want BMD defence ASAP - & current Aster 30 developments don't have the performance they (probably correctly) think is needed against Russian missiles.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Aster 30 developments are putting the system at about a similar tier to the David's Sling and Barak MX, of which Finland seeks to buy one, and they are 2 tiers below the Arrow 3 in the Israeli array, so that's not a possible substitute.
Germany will understandably seek other components for a multi tier defense, and the Arrow 3 seems to be the only Israeli component they seek.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

Aster 30 is a very capable missile, but of simply another tier compared to Arrow or THAAD.
As I said countless times, I am not discussiong about the fact that their choice was the Arrow3 ( btw, no contract has been signed yet...) over the THAAD or whatever.
My disappointment comes from how the choice was made.
I know for sure that neither France or Italy have anything against the Arrow3 missile itself or the requirement of the German defence, but they simply are irritated by how the germans started this procurement.
Italian MoD itself was interested in the program, but the fact that Germany completely ignored the only true EU missile manufacturer ( MBDA ) even in a future perspective angered them.

Lets see how it goes on, anyway.
I am not even close to be sure they will end up buying the Arrow... If they will, I will be happy as a European but angry as a EU citizen...

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Aster 30 is a very capable missile, but of simply another tier compared to Arrow or THAAD.
As I said countless times, I am not discussiong about the fact that their choice was the Arrow3 ( btw, no contract has been signed yet...) over the THAAD or whatever.
My disappointment comes from how the choice was made.
I know for sure that neither France or Italy have anything against the Arrow3 missile itself or the requirement of the German defence, but they simply are irritated by how the germans started this procurement.
Italian MoD itself was interested in the program, but the fact that Germany completely ignored the only true EU missile manufacturer ( MBDA ) even in a future perspective angered them.

Lets see how it goes on, anyway.
I am not even close to be sure they will end up buying the Arrow... If they will, I will be happy as a European but angry as a EU citizen...

Since MBDA has nothing close to the Arrow 3 in terms of kinetic capability, it is very much possible to have it involved as a regional supplier. There, problem solved. It doesn't even need to spend money and time on developing its own anymore.

 

[swerve]

Aster 30 is a very capable missile, but of simply another tier compared to Arrow or THAAD.
...
Italian MoD itself was interested in the program, but the fact that Germany completely ignored the only true EU missile manufacturer ( MBDA ) even in a future perspective angered them.
...

1. Exactly. It can't cover the same target set, whatever enhancements it receives. Very good at hitting the targets it was designed for, but they don't include ballistic missiles of the ranges Arrow 3 is aimed at.
2. MBDA is a very capable firm, but can't do magic, so it can't produce a missile comparable to Arrow 3 in the desired timescale. Given that, what's the issue? It'd be perfectly reasonable for MBDA to be lobbying for funding to develop missiles covering longer-range BMs, but even if every EU & NATO Europe country united to fund such a development, it'd take too long to produce results for it to be relevant to this purchase.

I'd love there to be European weapons in this class, but at the moment they don't exist. Getting angry because a country ignores companies which can't supply what it wants when it wants it doesn't make sense.

Maybe MBDA should have tried to team up with the Israelis to offer Arrow 3 to European countries as part of a tiered BMD defence.

 

[Bob53]

Germany to possibly buy large number of Boxer armored vehicles made in

Australia is negotiating its most lucrative defence export deal, with the German army planning to buy hundreds of Queensland-made Boxer Combat Reconnaissan

www.armyrecognition.com

Does anyone know the quantity under consideration here? Why wouldn’t Germany just buy German made versions?

 

[swerve]

Why wouldn’t Germany just buy German made versions?

Because even with new investment currently being put in, there's no spare capacity in Germany, or even other European factories. They're committed to building new Boxers & upgrading old ones to fulfil existing orders. The Australian facility may be the only one which can deliver more Boxers quickly.

 

[seaspear]

Aster block 2 (really a new missile using an Aster 30 booster, according to the published information from when it was first proposed) has been going nowhere for years, last I heard. Enhancements to Aster 30 to improve its BMD performance have been funded & produced, but block 2? A deafening silence. Or are you aware of anything new?

I find it disapppointing. I had hopes when I first read about it, long ago.

I have included an article that suggests that Germany has performed some acrobatics worthy of the circus with the selection of Arrow 3 when only a few months age it seemed so heavily invested in "Twister"
Germany joins nascent European push to shoot down hypersonic missiles (defensenews.com)
EU Approves $102M for Hypersonic Missile Interceptor Program (thedefensepost.com)

 

[kato]

Does anyone know the quantity under consideration here? Why wouldn’t Germany just buy German made versions?

About a year ago it was proposed - by the company - to include production of the then-planned 93 units of the "Heavy Weapons Carrier Infantry" (proposed as Boxer CRV in Australian Land 400 Phase 2 configuration) into the production plans at Brisbane in order to speed up availability. Supposedly there have been some negotiations between the German and Australian government regarding that since then.

The main purpose behind this proposal from Rheinmetall is for them to not have to invest in expanding production capacity in Germany.

Medium-term a requirement for an additional 160 Boxer in a similar combat configuration has been identified by the Bundeswehr. There are some "enthusiasts" internationally (presumably mostly within Rheinmetall lobby circles) that see chances of this going to the Australian production line as well.

 

[swerve]

I have included an article that suggests that Germany has performed some acrobatics worthy of the circus with the selection of Arrow 3 when only a few months age it seemed so heavily invested in "Twister"
Germany joins nascent European push to shoot down hypersonic missiles (defensenews.com)
EU Approves $102M for Hypersonic Missile Interceptor Program (thedefensepost.com)

Thanks. Interesting links.

Not Aster Block 2, though, & I'm afraid you miss the main point: timing. The European hypersonic project is a potential follow-on from Arrow 3. Arrow 3 is operational now, not a development project expected to produce useful hardware in the 2030s. A full system can be in service in Germany much, much sooner than TWISTER. The Germans have woken up to the Russian threat & are starting to do something about it now.

 

[kato]

when only a few months age it seemed so heavily invested in "Twister"

EU-HYDEF, while related (i.e. planned to be based off of its infrastructure) is not part of TWISTER itself. It is notably also not even a PESCO project, and Germany does not finance it.

TWISTER is (only) a satellite-based early warning system.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

I have included an article that suggests that Germany has performed some acrobatics worthy of the circus with the selection of Arrow 3 when only a few months age it seemed so heavily invested in "Twister"
Germany joins nascent European push to shoot down hypersonic missiles (defensenews.com)
EU Approves $102M for Hypersonic Missile Interceptor Program (thedefensepost.com)

Please notice the target sets. They are all atmospheric or on the edge. The only exception is IRBMs but many systems intercept them in the terminal stage.
Arrow 3 is specifically exo-atmospheric and will be unable to defeat atmospheric threats due to the design of its kill vehicle. It can also defeat ICBMs, and does so before it reaches the terminal phase.

To defeat atmospheric threats, IAI has developed Arrow 2, and currently develops Arrow 4 to include hypersonic weapon defeat.

So there is absolutely no contradiction between acquiring the Arrow 3 AND participating in the Hydef program.

 

[SolarisKenzo]

EU hydef is currently a joke program, because of the Commission decision to exclude MBDA from the program in favour of the German DIEHL and a Spanish company.
MBDA is currently working at a judiciary level to be included.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

Good visualization of the Arrow 3

 

[MarcH]

Germany to possibly buy large number of Boxer armored vehicles made in

Australia is negotiating its most lucrative defence export deal, with the German army planning to buy hundreds of Queensland-made Boxer Combat Reconnaissan

www.armyrecognition.com

Does anyone know the quantity under consideration here? Why wouldn’t Germany just buy German made versions?

Another number currently circulating is "up to" 130. First Prototype to be delivered in 2024. If trials are succesfull, germanization (one given example was replacing the coax FN MAG with a MG 5).
The Australian CRV version may not be a perfect fit, but doesn't interfere with other production orders.

 

[MarcH]

Not exactly news anymore, but worth noting. New chief of defence and new deputy minister:
AP article
Framework contract for new Leopard 2A8 to replace tanks delivered to Ukraine.
armyrecognition.com
Short summary: Based on Leopard 2A7HU. Notable improvements: better protection vs. top attacks and Trophy APS.

 

[kato]

Polaris Raumflugzeuge's research continues getting sponsored by the Bundeswehr.

After getting a contract for a study for military applications of their spaceplane project they got a contract to build demonstrators and just now got a contract to develop linear aerospike engines (LAS) to put on them.

LAS were tested by NASA in the 90s as planned main engines for X-33 Venture Star and a cold-flow (unlit) demonstrator flown on an SR-71. The contract Polaris got from the Bundeswehr now calls for such engines to be tested in flight for the first time. Polaris plans to 3D-print the engine to circumvent problems encountered in the 90s.

The contract also includes building yet another heavier demonstrator. It will be powered by four kerosene jet engines and a single liquid-fuel linear aerospike engine. The companies plans for one more demonstrator in 2024 after this one - for high-altitude supersonic flights - before transitioning to building an actual spaceplane prototype in 2026.

The Aurora spaceplane is now officially stated by the company to also have a possible "defense use" as a very-high-altitude (edge of space), hypersonic-speed (Mach 10+) platform for "reconnaissance and other defense applications". Other possible use cases are TSTO satellite launch, suborbital experiment platform, high-speed transport and manned suborbital missions.