I'm no expert either but I will give my uninformed opinion. I just think Germany has such a big export market for the Leo 2 that they don't want to lose the esteem that the Leopard tank is held in by allies when the inevitable turret tossing starts. I know in Canada if we donated, which we should, our Leopards and people started seeing them on the news getting destroyed we would have a hard time convincing the public of the need to replace them. I think Germany feels that if Abrams tanks were also finding misfortune on the battle field then it wouldn't reflect as badly on any future sales for the Leo 2's. Of course all kinds of equipment is being destroyed but the turret tossing tanks seems to draw the most media interest.
Leo 2A5 is the most likely suspect for donation. Turkish military leo 2A5 took losses in Syria.
Most of the Leo2 sales happened during the draw down of German unification. When two armies became one, the boarders moved east then more east. The Germans basically sold off huge stocks of A5s for bargain basement prices. That’s how they got so wide spread. The now western half of Germany was a vibrant western economy the now Eastern half was a collapsed Soviet socialist basket case. The Germans set to drag the East to the 21st century by export markets.
:: corrected:: (I was under the impression that only the Leopard 2HEL was in active production. )
This said Germany in the last decade started reigning in military exports. This is why in small arms Sig Sauer closed up its German operations shifting more and more resources to the US and Swiss, H&K has expanded more of its American operations. In heavy defense equipment more and more for export firms like Rhinemetall seeking to license products or build outside of Germany, Less strict regulation. Poland in particular seems to have intended to divest from Leopard 2 as although they were modernizing to the Leopard 2P, there purchasing of Abrams, K2 and longer run K2PL was part of a plan to completely eliminate T72 and Leopard 2 from their arsenals.
Like you I am no expert and I agree a bunch of Leo2s getting destroyed would be welcomed as a great excuse to abandon MBTs by the anti-military fools here in Canada. The commercial consequences is a likely a concern for Germany ( and the US ) but realistically Ukraine knows how to deploy tanks with infantry support and to my knowledge both tanks should fare equally against Russian kit (again, my assumption). Also, anti-tank kit available to the Russians is a question mark wrt both performance and availability.
The fact is Tanks can be destroyed. That doesn’t mean they are obsolete. Infantry can be destroyed yet they are still used. What makes a military class of weapons obsolete is when some other asset emerges that can perform the same tasks at higher survival rates and for better price. The Battleship wasn’t doomed by the aircraft it was the aircraft in combination with destroyers, cruisers, frigates, submarines and corvettes suddenly has weaponry available to them that was far superior to the big guns at fractions of the price. I mean for the cost of the Yamato you could field a whole task force. The Same isn’t true for the Tank. Their isn’t anything that does what the tank does. Nor is there likely to be that isn’t just a repackaged Tank. The USMC divested from tanks as if they need them the Army could attach some.
~100 tanks aren't enough. Ukraine needs hundreds over the year to make up for losses and be able to launch offensive operations. I believe there are two options to move forward, either provide last generation tanks (Leo-1s where available, M-60s more likely) or provide M1s
The Ukrainians magic number was 300 MBT. Poland has made 200 available, 90
From the Czech Republic, 14 Challanger 2 and hundreds captured from Russia in varying degrees of repair.
M60 and Leopard 1 models face the problem that in NATO states they have almost universally been mothballed or boneyarded or just scrapped. The stocks that might be more available are in active users or the Middle East which means negotiations of a trade questions as to serviceability but that’s after the Russian question. Much of the Middle East has been happy to draw from the teets of East and west. Tanks to Ukraine would likely spur the milk from Moscow.
Easiest supplies would be direct from the west American prepositioned M1A1 but have to convince Washington to go that route.