The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
Weren't some Leopards already being offered or I'm misremembering?
Not sure myself but certainly Germany wasn’t overly enthusiastic about Leopard customers offering their tanks to Ukraine but the UK decision and the US offering Bradleys has changed this (German defence minister just resigned).
 

KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ Poland was the first who said they would send some Leopards if another Nato member sends the modern tanks (I would guess that decision would also depend on Germany’s permission to do so). Then the UK made the decision to send the tanks. Germany will be deciding at or after the January 20 meeting.

Today, Duda yet again called for supplying Ukraine with tanks, indicating that Poland had already handed over 260 T-72 tanks and is planning to send a company (14?) of Leopards in the near future. The German authorities said they have not received any requests for permission as of yet.
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
According to ANP the Netherlands will supply a Patriot system to Ukraine. Dutch to Send Patriot Missile Defence System to Ukraine -ANP (usnews.com)

If confirmed it means that Ukraine will get three Patriot systems -- not a lot, but it definitely helps!

It seems Ukraine is not able to shoot down some categories of missiles including the Kh-22 that recently hit a residential building killing at least 45 civilians. The Kh-22 has a very limited accuracy, thus, for the land-attack version it had a nuclear warhead to take out e.g., ports and air bases, however it has also been fitted with conventional warhead as seen in Ukraine. In early July a Kh-22 struck a shopping mall, killing a large number of civilians. Systems like Patriot and SAMP/T are therefore urgently needed in Ukraine. Ukraine Situation Report: Kyiv Says It Has No Defense Against Russia's Kh-22 Missiles (thedrive.com)

The combination of a large warhead and a very low precision makes this a horrible weapon to fire towards a city like Dnipro which consists mainly of residential buildings and civilians, and comparatively few military installations.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
On the subject of veracity, apparently Ukraine's Command East still claims they're holding their positions in Soledar. If we didn't have other information, would we know the difference?

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Dec.19th-20th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian loitering munition hits a Ukrainian Buk in Kherson region.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk-Cherkasy.

Russian Shaheds over Cherkasy.


Russian Ka-52 in Zaporozhye region downed allegedly by friendly fire on Dec 5th.


Russian Giatsint-B on the Zaporozhye axis.


Russian mobilized personnel digging in, Zaporozhye. Note, while all have non-rusted AKs, modern helmets and body armor, none are wearing tactical vests.


Russian forces on the Zaporozhye axis.


The North.

Russian strikes in Kiev. The Antonov factory and TES-5 were hit.


Ukrainian air defenses downing a Shahed over Kiev.


Shahed-131s were used in recent strikes against Kiev.


AIM-120 fragments fell over the city.


Kiev stands dark.


Oskol Front.

A destroyed Ukrainian tank and BMP near Kremennaya. So far Ukrainian attacks there have not produced results.


Russian strike on a Ukrainian fuel storage in Kharkov area.


Russian motor-rifles from the Kantemirovskaya 4th Tanks have shot down a Ukrainian UAV.


LDNR Front.

LNR 4th Bde and Chechen fighters have apparently taken several Ukrainian positions around Spornoe. The small village itself remains in Ukrainian hands.


Russian fires in Soledar, against Ukrainian infantry and positions.


Russian Chechen fighters advancing on Soledar.


A Ukrainian pickup truck takes some fire, an wheel gets hit but it keeps moving. Artemovsk/Bakhmut area.


There are reports that Ukraine's 113th Territorial Defense Bde lost 5 pickup trucks near Artemovsk/Bakhmut recently. Volunteers are collecting money for more vehicles.


Ukrainian M-109 reloading near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Ukrainian trenches inside Artemovsk Bakhmut.


Ukrainian BATT UMG spotted in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Zelensky visits Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


DNR 9th Rgt dropping munitions from quadcopters near Avdeevka.


A Ukrainian Mi-8 gets shot down. Reportedly, the DNR's 11th Rgt did the shoot-down. Links 2-3 have a video from a Ukrainian Mi-24.


Allegedly Russian tanks from the 36th Motor-rifles shelling Ugledar from indirect fire positions.


Shelling of Donetsk continues, including use of Grads.


Khartsyzk also got hit, target unclear at this time.


Russia.

An explosion in Chongar, on the border with Kherson region.


The town of Sudzha, Kursk region, Russia, 9kms from the Ukrainian border, got hit.


Shebekino in Belgorod region got hit too, there are reports of loss of power and water in town. Reportedly 1 civilian wounded.


In Trubchevskaya, Bryansk region, and energy infrastructure object got hit by a Ukrainian UAV.


Iranian Il-76 flights continue to Russia.


Russian governor of Belgorod region confirms that Russia's early warning system for civilians of incoming strikes is ineffective.


Misc.

Russian Forpost-RU directing artillery fires. Location and context unclear.


Ukrainian S-300 fires somewhere in the south.


Destroyed Ukrainian Husky TSV and Kozak-2. Location and context unclear.


A destroyed Russian BTR-82A, uparmored haphazardly.


Russian Linza MRAP knocked out somewhere in Ukraine. Reportedly the occupants survived.


Allegedly Polish fighters in Ukraine.


Pantsyr-S1 in Ukraine, note the hesco barriers around it. Clearly this is meant to protect against artillery fires, and possible strikes.


Russian BMP-3s uparmored haphazardly with ERA.


Russian SpN riding a Tayfun-K in Ukraine.


NATO/EU.

Reportedly Ukraine has received another 1000 Starlink terminals.


Two Turkish A-400Ms stuck in Borispol' are finally leaving Ukraine.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
^ In the meantime, Arestovich resigned after backlash and hints of investigation and calls for charges of treason.
He was the one who admitted that Ukraine downed the missile that hit the building in Dnepropetrovsk. Some think this is connected. Of course there are all kinds of other reasons this might be happening.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
There's been a helo crash in Kyiv with 16 dead and 22 injured. It came down near a kindergarten / nursery. At present there is no indication of the cause of the crash, but there was a low mist around and, as per SOP, it was flying low to avoid missiles. Amongst the dead are the Ukrainian Interior Monister Denys Monastyrskyy, his Deputy Minister, and a state secretary.

 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
Latest package from Sweden announced today:

* 50 CV90
* Archer -- exact number not known, but some claim it could be 24 units
* More NLAWS
* Misc. other stuff.

Total value of this latest package: SEK 4.3 billion (USD 417 million) Klart: Artillerisystemet Archer levereras till Ukraina | SVT Nyheter

Canada recently announced they will send 200 Senator APC to Ukraine: Minister Anand concludes productive visit to Ukraine - Canada.ca

Estonia announced a new aid package consisting of howitzers, ammunition, artillery support equipment as well as grenade launchers at a value of EUR 113 million. This takes Estonia's total assistance so far to just above 1% of Estonia's GDP(!) Estonian military support to Ukraine to increase to more than 1 percent GDP | News | ERR

Latvia will send additional Stinger missiles, helicopters, drones, machine guns, and ammo. Latvia's support so far constitute 0.93% of Latvia's GDP. Latvia will send additional Stinger missiles, helicopters and drones to Ukraine (baltictimes.com)

Finland's PM makes it clear that Ukraine has to win, no matter how long it takes, and how much. Finland is clearly in it for the long haul!
Maria Tadeo on Twitter: "From Davos, Finland’s PM Sanna Marin says «we don’t know when the war ends - but Ukraine has to win. I don’t see another choice.» https://t.co/EapDkqbAP6" / Twitter
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
The UK will send 600 Brimstone missiles to Ukraine, pledges multiyear support. "We will plan for this year and next year and the year after and beyond," said Defence Secretary Ben Wallace. UPDATE 1-UK to send 600 Brimstone missiles to Ukraine - Defence minister (yahoo.com)

Denmark to donate 19 Caesars: Denmark To Donate 19 French-made Howitzers To Ukraine: Govt | Barron's (barrons.com)

These announcements today are quite interesting, since the Ramstein "donation meeting" is tomorrow. 50 countries are expected to participate including all 30 NATO members. Seems like some interesting signaling is going on here, just before the meeting... It looks like somebody want to set the bar high before the meeting, it will be interesting to follow the announcements coming through tomorrow and the following days...
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia has just begun a push in Zaporozhye area, towards the town of Kamenskoe (the village of ~10k people south-west of Zaporozhye, not the city 200k+ north-west of Dnepropetrovsk), Orekhov, and Gulyaypole. Reportedly Russian sappers cleared paths through minefields, and Russian forces managed to seize high ground positions around this area. There are unconfirmed reports of Russia taking 4 smaller villages in the area.


EDIT: Russian artillery fires on the Orekhovo axis.

 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
^ There are claims that the Ukrainians are withdrawing some significant forces from the area and sending them to reinforce Bakhmut defence line. The Russians were saying a week or two ago (maybe longer?) that this was inevitable and either Ukraine loses Bakhmut or withdraws some troops elsewhere, which would allow for a Russian advance there.


A new package is announced by the US:

The United States on Thursday announced a new package of military assistance for Ukraine it valued at up to $2.5 billion, including hundreds of armored vehicles and support for Ukraine's air defense.

The latest assistance includes 59 Bradley Fighting Vehicles and 90 Stryker Armored Personnel Carriers, the U.S. Defense Department said in a statement.

The latest assistance also includes additional ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), eight Avenger air defense systems, tens of thousands of artillery rounds and about 2,000 anti-armor rockets, the Defense Department said.


 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
The Ramstein meeting has started this morning, and Finland is kicking off the day by announcing it's 12th and by far the largest package so far: 400 million Euros(!) -- the previous 11 packages summed up to 590 million Euros. Heavy equipment will be sent. Also interesting to note the close collaboration with Sweden helps facilitate shipment of Finnish defence materials: Finland supplies defence materiel to Ukraine, and Sweden expresses its readiness to support Finland as necessary. The defence forces of Finland and Sweden will review and, if necessary, update their operational plans.

Finland to deliver more defence materiel to Ukraine - Puolustusministeriö (defmin.fi)
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
The main issue right now is delivery of tanks -- either Leo 2, or Abrams. Mick Ryan's take on this: The Great Tank Debate - by Mick Ryan, AM - Futura Doctrina (substack.com)

One thing that confused me, is the difference in opinion on the Abrams. Mick says:

... if the Australian Army with its very light integral logistic footprint (and lack of tank strategic sustainment for the first decade in service) can run an M1 tank fleet in these circumstances, the Ukrainians definitely can!

Also Gen. Ben Hodges seem to think Abrams should be fine for Ukraine. Another expert, Mark Hertling, begs to differ: Claudio de Sat on Twitter: "@MrKovalenko @MarkHertling I have another one. General Ben Hodges sees no issue with Abrams in Ukraine. Is he also a non-expert?" / Twitter

What do the experts on this forum think?
 

Vivendi

Well-Known Member
The Ramstein meeting has started this morning, and Finland is kicking off the day by announcing it's 12th and by far the largest package so far: 400 million Euros(!) -- the previous 11 packages summed up to 590 million Euros.
Seems I misread the Finnish news release (?) and that the 590 million Euros included the 12th package meaning that the first 11 packages adds up to 190 million. M. Korhonen on Twitter: "@CorporalFrisk @DefenceFinland Okei, suomenkielinen osuudessa tämä oli ihan selvästi: "Kaikkien Suomen Ukrainalle toimittamien puolustustarvikepakettien korvattava arvo on viimeisimmän paketin myötä 590 miljoonaa euroa."" / Twitter
 

swerve

Super Moderator
The main issue right now is delivery of tanks -- either Leo 2, or Abrams. Mick Ryan's take on this: The Great Tank Debate - by Mick Ryan, AM - Futura Doctrina (substack.com)

One thing that confused me, is the difference in opinion on the Abrams. Mick says:

... if the Australian Army with its very light integral logistic footprint (and lack of tank strategic sustainment for the first decade in service) can run an M1 tank fleet in these circumstances, the Ukrainians definitely can!

Also Gen. Ben Hodges seem to think Abrams should be fine for Ukraine. Another expert, Mark Hertling, begs to differ: Claudio de Sat on Twitter: "@MrKovalenko @MarkHertling I have another one. General Ben Hodges sees no issue with Abrams in Ukraine. Is he also a non-expert?" / Twitter

What do the experts on this forum think?
I'm not an expert, but I remember when Australia selected the M1 there was a lot of talk about how Australia was unlikely to deploy MBTs anywhere except in conjunction with the USA, so would be able to share US logistics.

All the informed talk of M1 being difficult for Ukraine to use is about logistics, & both fuel & maintenance, which the Leopard 2 seems to be universally agreed needs less of.
 

John Fedup

The Bunker Group
I'm not an expert, but I remember when Australia selected the M1 there was a lot of talk about how Australia was unlikely to deploy MBTs anywhere except in conjunction with the USA, so would be able to share US logistics.

All the informed talk of M1 being difficult for Ukraine to use is about logistics, & both fuel & maintenance, which the Leopard 2 seems to be universally agreed needs less of.
My knowledge of MBTs is even less than yours but I agree the Leo2s make more sense. Ukraine has more diesel mechanics than turbine mechanics and the M1’s fuel requirements are a huge disadvantage (from both a consumption and logistics perspective).
 
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