The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

TayJG

Member

It's recommended here not to post anything without comment. It's best if you add some of your own input, even if it's only to say why you've posted the material.

This is just a reminder. Please don't take it personally.
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Updates on Artemovsk/Bakhmut-Soledar.

To summarize it seems Russia is pressuring both cities from multiple sides. In Soledar Russian forces are in the center of town and advancing, albeit slowly. In Artemovsk/Bakhmut they're snipping off small areas across the entire arc, from the north to the south. It's possible this is an attempt to fix Ukrainian forces, or even forces Ukraine to funnel reserves to Artemovsk/Bakhmut rather then Soledar. If this push continues it seems likely Soledar will fall and Ukraine's positions at Artemovsk/Bakhmut will be worsened. If Russia has reserves available, it's possible both cities will fall here, but the fight for Artemovsk/Bakhmut will require considerable additional effort.

Ukrainian sources are claiming heavy fighting in Artemovsk/Bakhmut, at the second defense line, implying the first line has fallen. The source, the father of an Azov fighter, is also claiming that many Ukrainian officers "got sick" and left the front line.


New Ukrainian forces spotted in the Artemovsk/Bakhmut area carrying FN FAL rifles. I suspect they might be a fresh unit rotated in.


A map from the Russian side, claims are similar to what is shown above but Russian sources are claiming control of Podgornoe.


Ukrainian tank getting hit on the southern outskirts of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, near Sobachevka. Note the Ukrainian flag, this is pretty unusual. Looking closer at the tank I suspect this might be a captured Russian variant with K-5 ERA on the turret and sideskirts. The flag might be an attempt to avoid friendly fire.


A destroyed Ukrainian Iveco MRAP in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

 

TayJG

Member

I read the current status as a failure for Russia. They failed in Bakhmut, diverted to attacking Soledar, took huge casualties, made some gains but did not capture the city, and the new push here signals a strategic failure to take Bakhmut. This feels more like a desperation play.

I just discovered this source, just for this debate. People might want to evaluate it on their own:

 

TayJG

Member
Copying and posting without comment, ignoring Moderator direction, and / or providing link to source.
...

@TayJG Image deleted.

A Moderator has already given you a red warning and direction,
here, for posting without comment, this morning. You have ignored it, plus you haven't provided a link to the source. Repeat this behaviour and you will be sanctioned by the Moderators. We don't take kindly to Moderators directions being ignored. You have been on here long enough to know the rules.

Awarded 6 demerit points for 3 months.

Ngatimozart.
 
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Larry_L

Active Member
Russia claims strike on Kramatorsk in retaliation for strike on
Makiivka kills 600+. Ukraine said that they missed, and there were no casulties.

Quote: 'Sergiy Gaiday, head of the Lugansk regional administration, said the Russians were redeploying forces from Bakhmut, the current epicentre of the fighting, to the city of Kreminna."


Russia claims to kill 600 Ukrainian troops in ‘retaliatory strike’ in Kramatorsk
 

Larry_L

Active Member
There have been various calls on social media for US to now deliver F16 having crossed the previous red-lines on Bradley IFV and Patriot. But before rising to F16 what has ever happened to the earlier claims by Poland and Slovakia on transferring Mig29s?
I suspect that if Ukraine is to get F-16's there is already training going on. Only time will tell.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member

I read the current status as a failure for Russia. They failed in Bakhmut, diverted to attacking Soledar, took huge casualties, made some gains but did not capture the city, and the new push here signals a strategic failure to take Bakhmut. This feels more like a desperation play.

I just discovered this source, just for this debate. People might want to evaluate it on their own:

Not sure how you think they have failed. Russia hasn't launched a single assault on Artemovsk/Bakhmut proper. They've been doing a very slow push around it, mostly successfully. They've also been doing a slow push around Soledar though with less pressure. Soledar gave first, likely because of either tactical particularities or fewer forces committed by Ukraine. If neither falls now, they will halt at what they've gained and go back to artillery-based attrition efforts.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update Artemovsk/Bakhmut-Soledar.

Russian forces are assaulting central Soledar with fighting taking place next to the city administration office. It appears that Soledar is about to fall. Another Ukrainian unit has been spotted, namely the 24th Mech Bde (riding Slovakia M-80s). The city center remains heavily contested and Ukrainian forces were seen near the sanatorium. There are also reports of Wagner forces on the northern industrial areas, suggesting the city is beginning to be enveloped. Rumors circulate about Ukrainian forces preparing to withdraw from Soledar.


Major fires burn in Soledar and Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Russian forces appear to be pushing between Soledar and Bakhmut towards the villages of Krasnaya Gora, Paraskovievka, and Blagodatnoe. Russian forces are still fighting Ukrainian infantry in the positions around those villages, so they haven't entered them yet. Russian fires have destroyed a Ukrainian MBT, BMP, and truck in Blagodatnoe. If this push culminates, it will be the first operational success Russia has had since the fall of Popasnaya. Reportedly the northern road out of Artemovsk/Bakhmut is now effectively cut. South of Artemovsk/Bakhmut the Russian push in Klescheevka and Opytnoe has stalled.


If Soledar falls, Seversk could become a salient, and the situation in Artemovsk/Bakhmut would worsen considerably. But even the fall of Soledar hasn't happened yet and of course Soledar is a much smaller town then the already not-so-large Artemovsk/Bakhmut.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Time lapse from War Mapper of control around Bakhmut.


Poland is transferring 10 tanks to Ukraine. Apparently they are Leopard 2s.


Ukrainian 2S7 Pion outside Bakhmut.


Sky News UK are claiming that the UK is considering supplying 10 Challenger 2 tanks to Ukraine. Given the source I would consider treating this with caution. UK considering supplying Ukraine with Challenger 2 tanks to fight Russian forces. However UK Defence Journal have picked the story up Britain considers supplying Ukraine with Challenger 2 tanks.

Video from 25/2/22 of two Iskandar missiles striking Ukrainian 2S7 Pion artillery.


Oryx updated list of Russian aircraft losses.


Video from a new undesignated Russian UAV.


Ukrainian BVP M80A infantry fighting vehicle damaged by Russian forces near Bakhmut.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1612380699054731266?

Italian journo report on Russian missile strike on Kramatorsk that Russians claimed killed 600 Ukrainian soldiers. As you can see they were dreaming.

https://twitter.com/DanieleRaineri/status/1612121227971239936?

UK MOD report claiming that the Russians have been using the SU-57 Felon in Ukraine since June 2022. Sounds like a single aircraft being used.

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1612337912091217920?

Cockpit (pilot) view of Ukrainian MIL-24 Hind operations.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1612353349428432897?

Ukrainian recovery of a Russian 2S5 Giatsint-S 152mm self-propelled gun.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1612252477440548864?

War Mapper update of Bakhmut situation. It appears the thr Russians have gained some ground in the North.
1673304352990.png

Russian video of combat between two Ukrainian and three Russian tanks.


Video of a Ukrainian S-300V1 system firing an 9M83 missile.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Dec. 11th-13th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian strike on Kherson causes a fire.


Russian repair unit operating on the Kherson axis.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian remote-minelayer Zemledeliye in action.


A bridge in Melitopol' was damaged by an explosion, either infiltrators, or local resistance.


Unconfirmed reports that Russia has withdrawn heavy and light armaments from the Zaporozhskaya NPP. Unclear what this means in practice. I doubt all Russian forces have left the powerplant.


The North.


A power transformer blows in Kiev, possibly due to being overloaded.


Interesting footage of Ukraine rebuilding a destroyed building in Kiev, experience that Russia could learn for, considering the fate of Mariupol' and Severodonetsk.


Oskol Front.


Novoselovskoe, Russian forces doing quadcopter drops on Ukrainian positions.


LDNR Front.

LNR assault team on the Seversk axis. They're apparently conducting a probing attack to help reveal Ukrainian positions.


The northern bridge out of Artemovsk/Bakhmut, blown, along with the newer rail bridge.


A destroyed medical Humvee near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


A Ukrainian pickup truck technical destroyed near Artemovsk/Bakmhut, we can see them evacuating a WIA.


A building burns in Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note, there is a pattern of Ukrainian forces using high-rise apartments as positions.


A Russian T-72B3 mod'16 destroyed near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Reportedly a Ukrainian MiG-29 was shot down over Artemovsk/Bakhmut, with the pilot KIA, from the 831st Brigade.


A Ukrainian T-72M (1?) hiding under camo-netting in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Ukraine's 93rd Mech Bde near Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Ukrainian MaxxPro MRAPs in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Some footage of Russian forces operating around Artemovsk/Bakhmut. Note the Chekan armored truck, a signature Wagner vehicle.


Reportedly the morgues in Artemovsk/Bakhmut are overflowing.


Unconfirmed reports that Ukraine lost a helo to friendly fire over Konstantinovka, possibly the consequence of new western SAMs not having compatible IFF with Ukrainian aircraft.


Footage of battle damage in Avdeevka, a small town, essentially a suburb, of Donetsk.


Russian/rebel forces have gained a few more streets in Pervomayskoe.


Two abandoned and knocked out Mastiff MRAPs near Vodyanoe.


Reportedly Russian forces have gained fire control over the road north-ward out of Mar'inka, blocking its use as a supply route.


Russian Tornado-G strikes near Mar'inka.


Shelling of Donetsk continues. The Mayak factory burns, and a local market got hit. Grad strikes are reported again, along with howitzers.


Posters in Mariupol' from locals asking for help and stating that they don't want their homes torn down for the rebuild but instead to be repaired.


LNR and DNR court systems are integrating with Russia. Nothing on Zaporozhye and Kherson so far.


Russia.

In Klintsy, Bryansk region, a Russian military base got hit.


In direct response to recent Ukrainian strikes, Russia has begun parking their aircraft in protected positions.


More Russian volunteers heading from Grozny.


Russian volunteers training in Gudermes, Chechnya.


Misc.


A Ukrainian Switchblade-300 striking a Russian camera with thermals observation post.


A quadcopter munition drop on artillery shells. Likely Ukrainian based on the logo.


Russian Iskander-K launches. The type has been more scarce lately.


A knocked out Ukrainain XA-180 APC, captured. Note the machinegun.


A Ukrainian MaxxPro MRAP stuck, possibly abandoned.


A destroyed MT-LB with ZU-23-2, allegedly Ukrainian.


A Ukrainian MaxxPro MRAP shot up but it apparently survived. They got pretty lucky with that RPG round failing to detonate.


A Russian T-90M with soft-shell ERA and extra cage armor over the turret ERA.


Ukrainian forces posing with a captured BMP-3.


Russian Tor-M2DTs have shown up in Ukraine. This means that either Russia's Arctic units have rotated back in or that Russian shortage of SHORAD has resulted in these assets being tapped.


Russian repair unit in action. Location unclear. Interesting tidbits include a T-72A uparmored with K-1, and the long row of T-80BVs at the end.


NATO/EU.

A US RQ-4B is scouting out Crimea again.


France reportedly handed over 6 TRF-1 howitzers to Ukraine.


KMW is reportedly creating a repair base for German equipment supplied to Ukraine, in Slovakia, near Koshitse.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update Artemovsk/Bakhmut-Soledar.

Russian forces are assaulting central Soledar with fighting taking place next to the city administration office. It appears that Soledar is about to fall. Another Ukrainian unit has been spotted, namely the 24th Mech Bde (riding Slovakia M-80s). The city center remains heavily contested and Ukrainian forces were seen near the sanatorium. There are also reports of Wagner forces on the northern industrial areas, suggesting the city is beginning to be enveloped. Rumors circulate about Ukrainian forces preparing to withdraw from Soledar.


Major fires burn in Soledar and Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Russian forces appear to be pushing between Soledar and Bakhmut towards the villages of Krasnaya Gora, Paraskovievka, and Blagodatnoe. Russian forces are still fighting Ukrainian infantry in the positions around those villages, so they haven't entered them yet. Russian fires have destroyed a Ukrainian MBT, BMP, and truck in Blagodatnoe. If this push culminates, it will be the first operational success Russia has had since the fall of Popasnaya. Reportedly the northern road out of Artemovsk/Bakhmut is now effectively cut. South of Artemovsk/Bakhmut the Russian push in Klescheevka and Opytnoe has stalled.


If Soledar falls, Seversk could become a salient, and the situation in Artemovsk/Bakhmut would worsen considerably. But even the fall of Soledar hasn't happened yet and of course Soledar is a much smaller town then the already not-so-large Artemovsk/Bakhmut.
P.S. Not one but two knocked out M-80s there.

 

swerve

Super Moderator
Update Artemovsk/Bakhmut-Soledar.

Russian forces are assaulting central Soledar with fighting taking place next to the city administration office. It appears that Soledar is about to fall. Another Ukrainian unit has been spotted, namely the 24th Mech Bde (riding Slovakia M-80s).
Do you mean Slovenia? IIRC the M-80 was Yugoslavian, & Slovenia inherited & upgraded some.

Ah yes - reported to have donated 35 to Ukraine in June 2022. None left in service in Slovenia.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Article from The Drive - War Zone.


First of all it discusses western AFV for Ukraine including Strykers, Leopard 2s, Challenger 2s, and Bradleys. It also note the continued US refusal to provide Abrams tanks, and France's pressuring Germany to provide and allow other countries to provide Leopard 2s to Ukraine. The French are saying that the Germans are dragging the chain. Poland has Leopard 2s that it is prepared to provide to Ukraine.

Following this is the daily War Zone update. Of note in that:
  • On the battlefield, Donetsk remains a meatgrinder for both sides as they battle over Bakhmut and Soledar, where Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Malyar said Russia was making new efforts at retaking lost ground.
    "After an unsuccessful attempt to capture Soledar and retreat, the enemy regrouped, recovered losses, transferred additional assault units, changed tactics and launched a powerful assault," Malyar said on the Ukrainian Defense Ministry's (MoD) Telegram channel Monday.
    "So far, the enemy has deployed a large number of assault groups formed from the best reserves of the Wagnerites," she said, referring to the Wagner Group's army of mercenaries run by Yevgeny Prigozhin. "The enemy literally steps on the corpses of his own soldiers, massively uses artillery, volley fire systems and mortars, covering even his own fighters with fire."

  • Beyond Russia's immediate tactical goals for Bakhmut and Soledar are the long-term strategic value of those two mining cities, both for the natural resources as well as their capacity for underground storage. This could be critical to Russia that keeps losing topside ammo storage facility in and near Ukraine.
  • The Ukrainian Black Sea port city of Ochakiv in Mykolaiv Oblast has come under increasing fire, with dueling stories about what was hit there. Ukrainian officials say that 100 buildings were damaged and eight civilians injured. But the Russian Rybar Telegram channel said Monday that "missiles hit an ammunition depot of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, located on the territory of the former 7th coastal battery near the ship traffic control post...According to some reports, along with the ammunition depot, the radar station of the air defense complex was also destroyed." Whatever it was, it certainly caused a major explosion.
  • Ukrainian tanks in operation.​
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Do you mean Slovenia? IIRC the M-80 was Yugoslavian, & Slovenia inherited & upgraded some.

Ah yes - reported to have donated 35 to Ukraine in June 2022. None left in service in Slovenia.
You are correct, sorry tired typo.

Update Artemovsk/Bakhmut-Soledar.

It appears Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from central Soledar to the western and northern outskirts. Wagner's control of the town remains tenuous and sweeps are continuing. Ukrainian border guard troops engaged in the fighting in Soledar report that Ukrainian regular army troops fled from Soledar. Note the maps in the 2nd-3rd links are from Russian sources, so grain of salt, etc.


A Ukrainian Lynx MRAP destroyed near Soledar. coupled with the one we saw yesterday, there's some unit riding them in that area.


A view of the western outskirts of Soledar, on allegedly the last road out of the city controlled by Ukrainian forces.


Ukrainian sources from the 46th Bde confirm heavy casualties and operational encirclement of some forces (note this means control of supply routes by fire, not by physical boots).


UK sources confirm that Russia likely controls most of Soledar.


In Artemovsk/Bakhmut Russian forces continue the southern push through Opytnoe and on Klescheevka. Reportedly Klescheevka is now contested though what this means is unclear. It's pretty clear this is an attempt to threaten Artemovsk/Bakhmut with encirclement.


The wife of a killed Ukrainian soldier reports 110 bodies of Ukrainian war dead parked in two refrigerator trucks near one morgue, Artemovsk/Bakhmut. While she was there, another such truck pulled up.


Ukrainian war dead being trucked out, Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


Battle damage to the city, Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

 
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KipPotapych

Well-Known Member
From Prigozhin’s Telegram (via Google translate):


The divisions of PMC Wagner took control of the entire territory of Soledar. A cauldron has been formed in the center of the city, in which urban battles are being fought. The number of prisoners will be announced tomorrow.
Once again, I want to emphasize that no units other than the fighters of the Wagner PMC took part in the assault on Soledar.


Appears Soledar has fallen.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
From Prigozhin’s Telegram (via Google translate):


The divisions of PMC Wagner took control of the entire territory of Soledar. A cauldron has been formed in the center of the city, in which urban battles are being fought. The number of prisoners will be announced tomorrow.
Once again, I want to emphasize that no units other than the fighters of the Wagner PMC took part in the assault on Soledar.


Appears Soledar has fallen.
Rumors are that 200-500 Ukrainian soldiers mainly from the 46th Bde are trapped inside the city. Prigozhin is personally in Soledar. The photos are from inside the salt mines, on the western side of the city.

 

relic88

Member
From Prigozhin’s Telegram (via Google translate):


The divisions of PMC Wagner took control of the entire territory of Soledar. A cauldron has been formed in the center of the city, in which urban battles are being fought. The number of prisoners will be announced tomorrow.
Once again, I want to emphasize that no units other than the fighters of the Wagner PMC took part in the assault on Soledar.


Appears Soledar has fallen.
Interesting how he emphasizes that only his mercenary's took part. Showing off? Attempt to please someone or take pressure off?
 
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Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Interesting how he emphasizes that only his mercenary's took part. Showing off? Attempt to please someone or take pressure off?
Russian social media are saying LNR forces and Russian VDV were also involved. I think he's trying to showcase his organization and the successful one. Of course its murky how exactly this worked. For example if Russian VDV are pushing on Blagodatnoe-Krasnaya Gora, but Wagner is doing the house-to-house in Soledar, he could claim it was all them, and be technically correct (the best kind of correct).
 
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