The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Vivendi]

Sweden is preparing a new military aid package, totalling SEK 3 billion (USD 283 million). The new package includes air defence systems (not mentioned which), munitions, winter clothing, all terrain cars, and a few other things. The previous military aid packages had a total estimated value of SEK 2 billion.

Interestingly, Archer is not included in the latest package. In a comment the Swedes say they are sending what Ukraine asked for "most urgently". Thus, air defence and not Archer. Seems @STURM was right.

In addition, SEK 720 million in humanitarian aid is allocated to both Ukraine and Moldova.

Regeringen skickar rekordstort stödpaket till Ukraina - Regeringen.se
Hultqvist: Verkligheten kom väl ikapp dem om Archer (msn.com)

Finland is preparing it's 10th package, at 55 million Euros. Total is 160.4 million Euros
Henri Vanhanen on Twitter: "There it is: Finland will send its 10th military aid package — the largest so far — to Ukraine. Make no mistake, Finland remains committed and the help will continue as long as needed. When one package leaves, preparation for the next one begins. " / Twitter

 

[Vivendi]

In addition, SEK 720 million in humanitarian aid is allocated to both Ukraine and Moldova.

This was poorly worded, apologies. What I meant: In addition, SEK 720 million allocated to humanitarian aid will be split between Ukraine and Moldova.

 

[STURM]

At the very least this incident will provide incentive for the West to provide Ukraine with longer range missiles and/or fighter jets.

It's comforting to know that cool heads prevailed and that an attempt was made the verify where the missile originated from. Zelensky naturally is insisting that it came from Russia and Biden disputed this claim. Unsurprisingly NATO has declared that Russia is to blame because the missile was attempting to intercept a Russian missile and the Ukrainians have requested access to the site.

This incident raises the question of how many Ukrainian missiles have malfunctioned or misfired leading to Ukrainian civilian casualties.

 

[Feanor]

It's comforting to know that cool heads prevailed and that an attempt was made the verify where the missile originated from. Zelensky naturally is insisting that it came from Russia and Biden disputed this claim. Unsurprisingly NATO has declared that Russia is to blame because the missile was attempting to intercept a Russian missile and the Ukrainians have requested access to the site.

This incident raises the question of how many Ukrainian missiles have malfunctioned or misfired leading to Ukrainian civilian casualties.

More then one or two. We've seen pretty conclusive signs of Ukrainian SAMs hitting buildings or failing after launch. This is a consequence of hiding SAMs in urban areas, and then attempting to engage target from between buildings, while the missiles themselves are old and likely poorly maintained.

 

[John Fedup]

It's comforting to know that cool heads prevailed and that an attempt was made the verify where the missile originated from. Zelensky naturally is insisting that it came from Russia and Biden disputed this claim. Unsurprisingly NATO has declared that Russia is to blame because the missile was attempting to intercept a Russian missile and the Ukrainians have requested access to the site.

This incident raises the question of how many Ukrainian missiles have malfunctioned or misfired leading to Ukrainian civilian casualties.

Old missiles, likely beyond their best before date, no doubt a problem. All the more reason to supply something better. The new significant Russian missile attacks on Ukraine, IMO, justify supplying longer range strike missiles and more AD assets.

 

[STURM]

This is a consequence of hiding SAMs in urban areas, and then attempting to engage target from between buildings, while the missiles themselves are old and likely poorly maintained.

During the early part of the invasion there was footage of a S-300 being tracked as it moved within buildings for concealment.

 

[wsb05]

It could be a failure of the SAM, and a SAM that missed the inbound but then failed, simply kept flying.

Shouldn't the SAM missile self detonate?

 

[Feanor]

Shouldn't the SAM missile self detonate?

In theory? Sure. In practice? They're 30-40 year old missiles and Ukraine has been doing their own maintenance on them instead of working through the manufacturer. So honestly, who knows. From what I understand, they're past their actual shelf life, Ukraine has just been extending them by repairs and testing.

 

[Vivendi]

According to Haaretz, Israel has sponsored "strategic materials" for Ukraine. In addition, it seems they have shared intelligence and know-how with Ukraine (and perhaps Ukraine has also share info about their experience with Iranian drones?)

It seems the catalyst for change in the Lapid government was Iran’s decision to arm Russia with drones. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Iran has sold at least 300 drones to Moscow, which are targeting civilians and key infrastructure sites in Ukraine.

Under U.S. Pressure, Israel Funded ‘Strategic Materials’ for Ukraine - Israel News - Haaretz.com

"Strategic materials" -- a very curious expression. I wonder what that might be?

Anyway, great to see that Israel, in spite of concerns related to their relationship with Russia, is providing some support to Ukraine. They need all the help they can get.

 

[Vivendi]

The MH-17 verdict was presented recently. Very interesting reading, for many different reasons. The court is making a clear case that the armed invasion in 2014 was controlled by Russia.

"The court has ascertained that the Russian Federation coordinated military actions in the DPR, financed and provided weapons to the militants, but also undertook military actions on its own. Russia was in full control of the DPR".

Furthermore, the court says there cannot be found any reasonable doubt that the plane was destroyed by a Russia-launched BUK. It's inconceivable that such a vast multitude of mutually corroborating evidence could have been forged, so fast, and with zero evidence of manipulation.

Christo Grozev on Twitter: / Twitter

One of the really big mistakes US/EU did in 2014, was that they did not react much more strongly to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2014. If they had done that, Russia would probably not have invaded again 24. February 2022.

“You probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push. If you find steel, you withdraw”

 

[Big_Zucchini]

How do you explains this then?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591152495078047744

An odd one-off case that is not indicative of a trend. Such vehicles were sold to many customers, including African countries and for trials in Europe, and individual samples could very easily reach unintended destinations, including Ukraine.

 

[Big_Zucchini]

According to Haaretz, Israel has sponsored "strategic materials" for Ukraine. In addition, it seems they have shared intelligence and know-how with Ukraine (and perhaps Ukraine has also share info about their experience with Iranian drones?)

It seems the catalyst for change in the Lapid government was Iran’s decision to arm Russia with drones. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Iran has sold at least 300 drones to Moscow, which are targeting civilians and key infrastructure sites in Ukraine.

Under U.S. Pressure, Israel Funded ‘Strategic Materials’ for Ukraine - Israel News - Haaretz.com

"Strategic materials" -- a very curious expression. I wonder what that might be?

Anyway, great to see that Israel, in spite of concerns related to their relationship with Russia, is providing some support to Ukraine. They need all the help they can get.

This is not a very surprising development, but also not in a vacuum. I've speculated from the start that if, and when, Israel agrees to provide substantial material support, it would either be when Russia reneges on its security agreements with Israel, or when the US agrees to help Israel to offset the losses, or obviously both. I still believe this is the case.

Still, this talks about a relatively unsubstantial assistance in volume, and is one-off. Not much substance to comment on.

 

[Feanor]

According to Haaretz, Israel has sponsored "strategic materials" for Ukraine. In addition, it seems they have shared intelligence and know-how with Ukraine (and perhaps Ukraine has also share info about their experience with Iranian drones?)

It seems the catalyst for change in the Lapid government was Iran’s decision to arm Russia with drones. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Iran has sold at least 300 drones to Moscow, which are targeting civilians and key infrastructure sites in Ukraine.

Under U.S. Pressure, Israel Funded ‘Strategic Materials’ for Ukraine - Israel News - Haaretz.com

"Strategic materials" -- a very curious expression. I wonder what that might be?

Anyway, great to see that Israel, in spite of concerns related to their relationship with Russia, is providing some support to Ukraine. They need all the help they can get.

It's more then drones. Russian mobilized soldiers have been spotted with Iranian body armor, and the rumors of Iranian missiles are awfully persistent. I wouldn't be surprised if they started showing up.

 

[STURM]

I wouldn't be surprised if they started showing up.

Yes, those Iranian transports landing in Russia must be bringing something apart from Shaheds. Even then it's not impossible that Shaheds are being produced in Russia.

If and when Iranian missiles actually are used; no doubt we'll hear the same thing we heard about the Shaheds; not "gamechangers" and not overly sophisticated. Yet the missiles; like the Shaheds will be a major challenge to counter. Apart from missiles and Shaheds I wonder what else the Iranians have that the Russians would want.

Material wise it's not far fetched to assume that in return Iran might ask for certain things technology wise that the Russians might have. There was also a report about Russia delivering captured Javelins and NLAWS to Iran. It's expected that Iran would be interested in having a close look with a view to reverse engineering them. I recall reading somewhere of Iran enabling the Soviets access to F-14s and Phoenix in the 1980's and of course the Soviets got Blazer courtesy of the Syrians who captured several Israeli M-60s in 1982.

There is also the possibility that certain intel/info on Western arms and other things like NATO ELINT aircraft over the Black Sea and other places may have found its way to China courtesy of Russia. Perhaps at some point in the future we'll be hearing about Chinese observers in the Ukraine? Doubt it given the political sensitivities but also possible.

 

[STURM]

If they had done that, Russia would probably not have invaded again 24. February 2022.

Or if anyone had known that the separatists had Buk airlines wouldn't have been flying over the area. The assumption was that only MANPADs were there; thus airliners were safe above 10/12,000 feet. There was a report somewhere of a Lufthansa airliner being in the same area a few hours prior to MH17.

The irony is that years previously; when the Iraqi invasion was happening; airlines were rerouting aircraft from parts of the Middle East and those on their way to Europe were rerouted over the Ukraine. Having been interested in campaigns fought in the area in WW2 I found it interesting to have good aerial view of the Ukrainian countryside.

 

[ngatimozart]

There are reports of a Ukrainian USV attack on the Russian navy base at Novorossiysk. There is video from a tweet in H I Suttons report, that purports to be of the attack.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1593657952224813058

Ukraine's Maritime Drone Strikes Again: Reports Indicate Attack On Novorossiysk - Naval News

It appears that a Ukrainian maritime drone, similar to those using in an attack on Sevastopol, has struck Novorossiysk. This would be strategically important, showing that more of the Russian Navy is under threat.

www.navalnews.com

Whilst the Russians have denied such an attack and the Ukrainians haven't said anything about it, H I Sutton believes it's feasible and credible. I definitely think it's feasible, but am unsure about the credibility of the reports. I would like to believe that they are factually because if they were, that would definitely be causing the VMF Admirals bowels to be highly disturbed and their sphincter muscles to be clenching hard. During WW2 I don't think that the Germans managed to attack that naval base. However I think that during the Crimean War the RN may have paid it a visit.

 

[STURM]

Apart from this attack and the one by Houthi unmanned boats [which fall under the USV category] on a Saudi frigates some years ago; have there been other such attacks? Next we'll be seeing UUVs posing a threat to submarines.

 

[swerve]

There are reports of a Ukrainian USV attack on the Russian navy base at Novorossiysk. There is video from a tweet in H I Suttons report, that purports to be of the attack.
...
During WW2 I don't think that the Germans managed to attack that naval base. However I think that during the Crimean War the RN may have paid it a visit.

The Germans took Novorossiysk on 6th September 1942 & held it until September 1943, beating off a Soviet attempt to retake it in February 1943.

 

[Feanor]

An interesting chart of Russian MBT losses in Ukraine. If these losses are indicative, it shows that newer T-90s are significantly more survivable then older tank types. Of course this doesn't account for the low numbers of T-90s being used not just relative to the older tanks (that's accounted for by the numbers being relative to their own fleet size) but low numbers used relative to their own fleet size. I.e. far more of the T-72B3M and T-80BVM fleet were used then the T-90A or the T-90M. I'm also not sure the totals of 67 T-90Ms are accurate. I suspect there's closer to 100 of them by now.

Moscow calling

Подъехала аналитика Oryx по уничтоженным танкам ВС РФ. Согласно ей, РФ потеряла около 40% танков (относительно оценки Military Balance 2022), причём больше потерь понесли старые модификации - Т-72Б и Т-80БВ. Новых Т-80БВМ и Т-90 потеряно меньше всего, Т-72Б3 где-то посередине. Собственно, тут...

t.me

 

[STURM]

Another interesting discussion.with Michael Kofman. He mentions the Russian military complex; it's level of self sufficiency but its dependence of externally sourced materials for which sanctions will only have a greater effect at a later stage; various scenarios which might play out including a Russian defeat which might not necessarily lead to.a Ukrainian victory [something I've stressed on here previously] and a Russian military which didn't go in with a combined arms approach because the aim was quick regime change rather than dealing with the Ukrainian military as the centre of gravity. Mentioned is also made of internal U S. politics and the mixed signals we've heard about with regards to indefinitely issuing blank cheques to the Ukraine for which however there is the political will at present.