The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

OPSSG · Nov 14, 2022

@Leftyhunter, please consider changing your posting style and improving the quality of your posts — right now, it’s just an incoherent stream of consciousness — if this argumentative and nonsensical approach continues, you will get banned.

Feanor said:
I will clean this up when I have a moment, but this is a reminder to ALL posters. General discussions of relations between Russia and the West, including but not limited to trading partners, economic influence, long standing relationships, historic root causes of modern day political friction and conflict, belong in the appropriate thread. This thread is for discussions surrounding the current war in Ukraine. Chinese trading patterns and discussions of western media veracity or lack thereof belong elsewhere.

@IIO2 and gang, discussions on aid to Ukraine at the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia shall not be posted in this thread. Next person who posts off-topic in this thread will be banned.

Larry_L · Nov 14, 2022

Leftyhunter said:
It appears that by using small boats to land platoon size Ukranian forces on the Kinburn Peninsula the Ukranians can safe guard costal cities such has Odessa and Khearson prevent Russian forces from shelling at least part of Western Khearson Oblast. By gaining a foothold on the Kinburn Peninsula the Ukranians could then mount larger offensive movements into the Eastern part of the Khearson Oblast then eventually into Crimea.
Leftyhunter

Do you know the outcome of the attack? There is a report on telegram that it was a failure. I have not seen any other information on how it came out.

OPSSG · Nov 14, 2022

Terrain analysis of enemy action on the Kinburn Peninsula

Larry_L said:
Do you know the outcome of the attack? There is a report on telegram that it was a failure.

1. Can we please improve the quality of posts in this thread? Do a basic search and there are plenty of sources that provide real information, instead of YouTube or Russian propaganda on telegram.

(a) Please don’t post more rubbish in the thread. There seems to be an attempt to create an echo chamber, don’t do that — provide info instead.

(b) I set a low bar for competence — the major Russian retreats done at Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson, have avoided leaving behind large isolatable pockets. They have mostly avoided panic, and have not really generated surrender contagion.

Larry_L said:
I have not seen any other information on how it came out.

2. It remains to be seen if the reported fighting on the Kinburn Peninsula is:

(a) a raid; or

(b) a longer term lodgement by Ukraine; or

(c) a recon-counter recon fight.

Leftyhunter said:
It appears that by using small boats to land platoon size Ukranian forces on the Kinburn Peninsula the Ukranians can safe guard costal cities such has Odessa and Khearson prevent Russian forces from shelling at least part of Western Khearson Oblast. By gaining a foothold on the Kinburn Peninsula the Ukranians could then mount larger offensive movements into the Eastern part of the Khearson Oblast then eventually into Crimea.
Leftyhunter

3. Thanks for sharing the video, the terrain on the Kinburn Peninsula (often erroneously called the Kinburn Spit) is filled with small lakes and salt marshlands.

(a) The Kinburn Peninsula is a hook-shaped peninsula at the mouth of the Dnieper Estuary. It's about 40 km (25 mi) long and about 9 km (6 mi) wide. The peninsula is flat and sandy, with many small lakes and salt marshes. It's partly wooded with oaks and pines. There are 4 small villages on the peninsula.

(b) I just don’t see Kinburn as a main effort. At most, it is an effort to contest the space. IMO, it is hard for the Russian private military company defending the area to push the Ukrainian SSO out — once the Ukrainian SSO have enough forces (about a company sized force), dug-into the area, and the only road is under fire control from Ukrainian artillery. There is just to little info to conclude anything.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592279795433459714

4. Others have suggested that the 'Don' Cossack Brigade of the Redut private military company from Russian hold Kinburn. The latest attack or raid by Ukrainian SSR on Kinburn means the Ukrainians have been fighting the Redut private military company on the Kinburn Peninsula since Sept 2022.

(a) Kinburn is important because the strait between the spit and the north shore at Ochakiv is only 4km wide. Kinburn overlooks the entrances to both the Dnieper and to the Southern Bug river. It therefore controls access to Mykolaiv and Kherson ports.

(b) Russian artillery, rockets and Iranian-made drones have all reportedly been fired from there. The peninsula was fortified to blockade the strait and shell Ochakiv and the Ukrainian-held Pervomayskiy Island in the strait. Ukraine likely tried to probe Russian defences on Kinburn before the recent liberation of Kherson. Kirill Stremousov, the recently deceased head of the Russian administration in Kherson, claimed to have defeated a special forces raid in Sept 2022.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592237142943887361

(c) In late Oct 2022, the Redut private military company have created a defensive line in the bottleneck of the peninsula half way between Herois'ke & Rybal'che. The defensive line stretches all the way across (4 km) and consists of trenches and vehicle reventments.

Feanor · Nov 14, 2022

Leftyhunter said:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/yuaqqn We can't know the exact state of morale in the Russian Army but if this video reflects the norm that's not good news for the Russian Army. Based on various translations the Russian Mobik is complaining to his commanding officer that his unit is not receiving enough realistic marksmanship training. In another video of their interaction the same Mobik shoves his CO in the chest which isn't exactly proper military protocol.
Leftyhunter

Remember the story I posted about the mobilization? Russia is clearly not prepared to convert these hundreds of thousands of reservists into disciplined and professional soldiers. I think this stems not only and not so much from lack of supplies as it does from poor organization and not having enough training facilities to convert these civilians into soldiers.

Larry_L said:
A while ago I watched a video of an interview of Russian prisoners of war. If I remember correctly this man ((Yevgeny Anatolievich Nuzhin (1967 – November 2022)) was in that movie. Now the internet is abuzz with his killing. Putin's Chef who runs the Wagner group publicly defended the killing after a video of the incident appeared on the grey zone.

Ukraine war: Wagner chief Prigozhin defends brutal killing video

Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin says a defector to Ukraine died "a dog's death for a dog".

www.bbc.com

Family ‘horrified’ by video of sledgehammer killing of Wagner Group defector

Kremlin-linked private military group posted video of apparent execution in Russia of Yevgeny Nuzhin

www.theguardian.com

This isn't the first time "Wagner" fighters and sledgehammer executions have been associated. There was a video from Syria. It's important to note that Wagner isn't a regular military. It's a mercenary fighting force that's known for brutal treatment of both friend and foe. They've been effective in the past and have been relatively effective on the front lines of this war. But their behavior was always much worse then that of Russian military regular forces.

Feanor · Nov 15, 2022

Update. Nov 4th-5th

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Two M-109s and a radar (this one clearly spinning) destroyed in Kherson area by loitering munitions. It's interesting how the wind affects the loitering munition striking the radar.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Moscow calling

So close... Не стоит забывать, что ланцетоподобный БПЛА - всё-таки эрзац высокоточного оружия. Уязвимый канал связи БПЛА-оператор, длительное время полёта к цели из-за малой скорости, а также - большая парусность и подверженность влиянию ветра, что и произошло на данном видео. Главное теперь...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Уничтожение украинской РЛС 36Д6. И снова "Ланцет". С начала СВО это самый "жирный" день с точки зрения публикации данных объективного контроля прилета "Ланцетов".

t.me

Russian Shahed strikes on Nikolaev. Ukrainian air defenses are firing. Some of the Shaheds apparently went past there into Vinnitsa.

Colonelcassad

В Николаеве несколько взрывов после прилета "Гераней". Хаотичная стрельба из автоматов и пулеметов не помогает.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

A Ukrainian strike hit the boats used as part of the crossing in Kherson.

Moscow calling

Ответочка от HIMARS - уничтоженный в Херсоне причал с катерами, задействованными в переправе через Днепр.

t.me

A destroyed T-64BV (1st), and knocked out BMP-1 (2nd) apparently Ukrainian, Kherson region.

Судя по видео, на подстанции в Днепропетровской горит трансформатор.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Горит электроподстанция в Днепропетровской области. По одной версии - прилет "Герани". По другой версии - техническая неисправность вызванная перепадами напряжения из-за проблем в энергосети, которая привела к пожару.

t.me

Oskol Front.

Allegedly a Ukrainian tank burns near Svatovo.

Осташко! Важное

Танк ВСУ догорает после отрицательного наступления на сватовском направлении

t.me

LDNR Front.

DNR forces dropping bomblets on Ukrainian vehicles and infantry from a quadcopter.

Война Z Украина

Подборка работы бомбодронов НМ ДНР

t.me

DNR 11th Rgt apparently scores a direct hit on a Ukrainian MBT and on a Msta-B position with a D-20.

Не прошло и полгода...а нет, прошло. 17 пропавших без вести моряков с крейсера "Москва" официально признаны погибшими судом в Севастополе.

t.me

Troop trains continue. We have one with a hodge podge of vehicles, including some ZSU-23-4s, 2S3s, MT-LBs, BMP-based special vehicles, MT-LBus, a BTS, a BREM-1, and a bunch of trucks (1st), a bunch of fuel trucks (2nd), a bunch of MT-LBs and some trucks (3rd), 11 T-80BVs (4th),

Also regular troop columns. We have what looks like a VDV EW unit (1st)

Military Column With ‘V’ Military Equipment In Direction To The Donbass

Mobilized personnel are upset about lack of supplies, Kazan'.

Moscow calling

В Казани бунд мобилизованных. Бойцы хотят сухих дров, еды, воды, увольнений, женщин и синематограф. Офицера, который вышел с ними разбираться, проводили под гул "пошёл на хуй пидорас".

t.me

Mobilized personnel training at Cherbakul training ground, and in Krasnodar area.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Misc.

Another Ukrainian SP Howitzers (I think M-109s) getting hit by a loitering munitions. I suspect this is also Kherson area, but we can't be sure.

vk.com

There are reports that Ukraine lost comms when some Starlink terminals went off line due to funding issues.

Colonelcassad

1300 терминалов Starlink, использующихся ВСУ, больше не работают — CNN со ссылкой на источники Американское издание, ссылаясь на своих информаторов, сообщает, что причиной отключения терминалов послужило отсутствие финансирования.

t.me

More Russian T-80BVs arriving on the front line. Note the lack of K-1 sideskirts and the extra K-1 on the turret. Also they have mine trawls.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

A Ukrainian infantry unit riding nothing but Humvees. Such standardization is relatively rare. We usually see a mix of vehicles, at least in combat.

- YouTube

Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube.

www.youtube.com

NATO/EU.

The next package of US military aid to Ukraine is apparently going to include Hawk SAMs. While NASAMS and IRIS-Ts are more capable, the scope and scale of the fighting don't make it feasible to supply them in sufficient quantities, so Hawks will have to do. It's questionable how effective they will be, though with appropriate upgrades they can still be relevant. Given the recent revelations about Ukraine potentially being short on SAMs for Soviet-era systems in general, it's likely this is a planned step and not a reaction to the current long range strikes.

Новые планируемые американские военные поставки Украине

gurkhan.blogspot.com

Новые планируемые американские военные поставки Украине

4 ноября 2022 года министерство обороны США объявило о выделении нового пакета американской военной помощи Украине на сумму 400 миллионов долларов.Таким образом, общая сумма официально выделенной Киеву американской военной помощи с начала российской специальной военной операции на Украине 24…

bmpd.livejournal.com

ngatimozart · Nov 15, 2022

Footage of the explosion at the Nova Kakhovka dam in Kerson, during the Russian retreat.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591166872585895936

Russian airpower could become more dominant in the war.

Ukrainian artillery strikes on Russian positions west of the Dnipro River, prior to the Russian withdrawal. Date and location unknown.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592384461047730178

Apparently Russian forces have captured the settlement of Mayorsk on the outskirts of Horlivka.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592310723719622657

Situation as of 0001 15/11/22 UTC / GMT.

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1592310703095808001?s=20&t=1N0CQmdueFMIs6s9c9JfQw

ngatimozart · Nov 15, 2022

Israeli Israeli GAIA Amir MRAP have been spotted being used by the Ukrainians.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591152495078047744

Some Russian Mobiks CO told them that their equipment was worth far more to him than they were.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1591488510804262912

British Army sending Ukrainian trainees home with cold weather kit.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1590736153308692481

Ukrainian helicopter low level flying. Betcha they don't go through the toll booth

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1584954350140809216

A DNR commander has claimed that the Russians have had a 60% friendly fire rate with their artillery. That's not good at all.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1589069098658697219

ngatimozart · Nov 15, 2022

Ukrainian strike on Russian Pantsir-S1 and Tunguska air defense systems (not an Osa-AKM). Possible Excalibur strikes. Date and location unknown.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1588905221341982726

UK MOD Update 12/11/22.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592409131717218305

Captured Russian T-62M in the Kherson Oblast. Date unknown.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592306391624007681

Ok this takes the cake. Prigozhyn has asked the Russian Fed prosecution to investigate the circumstances of the poor bloke that his forces executed by sledge hammer. He suspects that the killing was carried out by US intelligence.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592282506363117568

Feanor · Nov 15, 2022

ngatimozart said:
Apparently Russian forces have captured the settlement of Mayorsk on the outskirts of Horlivka.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592310723719622657

This is the third time they're reporting it as captured. At least this time there was a photo. It remains to be seen whether it turns out to be correct.

Big_Zucchini · Nov 15, 2022

Leftyhunter said:
The Israeli Spike ATGM Extended Range version with a 27km range would be a good addition for Ukraine. Not sure if the newly elected PM would agree to do so as he has given mixed signals. A few Israeli MRAPs have been spoted in Ukranian service. Israel makes long range drones and loitering munitions but the again back to complex politics.
Leftyhunter

It's best not to expect Israeli weapons right now in any publicly visible capacity.
Relative to the grand democratic world (e.g. NATO, Japan, Australia, SK, etc) is very much stretched out in both missions (most complex security situation since 1973 Yom Kippur War), and material (~5-6% of GDP on defense).
Any visible aid to Ukraine, e.g. Spike missiles, would likely push Israel past a breaking point which might force it to initiate wars that are unnecessary and ultimately would result in otherwise avoidable deaths and destruction.
Ukraine has the entire NATO behind it with orders of magnitude more capability to assist, and more economical breathing space.
It would be like carrying 5 shopping bags in one hand and still picking up more, when the other hand has only 1 bag.

STURM · Nov 15, 2022

Very interesting discussion with Justin Bronk on the air war. Following a visit to the Ukraine were he interviewed Ukrainian pilots, GBAD people and those in intel; he released a report which is available on the RUSI site and which Vicendi gave a link to not too long ago.

- There quite a few air engagements on the first 3 days of the war than is generally in known.
- Russian the GBAD wasn't initially effective because of the need to avoid friendly fire [the assumption was that anything flying would be Russian].
- TB2s not being very effective after the first few days once the Russian GBAD started getting more effective.
-Quite a bit of the TB2 footage released over the subsequent weeks was actually taken during the first few days when the Russuan GBAD wasn't active but were released in stages.
- Because of their vulnerability to GBADs the TB2s are increasingly being used for recce and spotting rather then the strike role. On average UASs last about seven days; unsurprising as we saw in Libya, Syria and other places how vulnerable UASs can be.
-The effectiveness of Russian EW which wasn't used to full potential to avoid interfering/disrupting Russian ops.
- The lack of a track whilst scan capability
on Ukrainian fighter radars.
- A lack of updated modern maps on the part of the Russians which has had an impact on helicopter ops

Previous Justin Bronk videos for those who haven't seen them.

T.C.P · Nov 15, 2022

2 stray rockets apparently hit Poland and killed 2 people

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592584970153132036

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592583150081036288

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/yw5me6
If this is true this could lead to a serious escalation.How will Russia and the West respond to this? Could this be the final straw that makes the US send ATACMS to Ukraine?

Dex · Nov 15, 2022

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592217799510077440

Russia is still not adjusting in tactics 9 months after this war has started. I don't know what the end goal is of sending these poorly trained and even worse commanded armies to slaughter. It does make you wonder how Russians train their officers if they can't perform simple tasks.

Big_Zucchini · Nov 15, 2022

STURM said:
TB2s not being very effective after the first few days once the Russian GBAD started getting more effective.
-Quite a bit of the TB2 footage released over the subsequent weeks was actually taken during the first few days when the Russuan GBAD wasn't active but were released in stages.
Because of their vulnerability to GBADs the TB2s are increasingly being used for recce and spotting rather then the strike role. On average UASs last about seven days; unsurprising as we saw in Libya, Syria and other places how vulnerable UASs can be.

Only serves to prove the low-cost nature of the TB2 is hyped for the wrong reasons. It does feature some advanced capabilities in line with what the civilian sector can offer, meaning it's not lagging behind. But eventually a lower cost solution may result in higher attrition which offsets the balance.

relic88 · Nov 15, 2022

T.C.P said:
2 stray rockets apparently hit Poland and killed 2 people

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592584970153132036

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592583150081036288

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineRussiaReport/comments/yw5me6
If this is true this could lead to a serious escalation.How will Russia and the West respond to this? Could this be the final straw that makes the US send ATACMS to Ukraine?

Looking at a map of the region, how would it be possible for these rockets to land in Poland by accident? Would they be coming out of Kaliningrad? Unless the intended target was in the far west of Ukraine like Liviv?

vonnoobie · Nov 15, 2022

relic88 said:
Looking at a map of the region, how would it be possible for these rockets to land in Poland by accident? Would they be coming out of Kaliningrad? Unless the intended target was in the far west of Ukraine?

Depends on rocket type and circumstances of launch as well as any possible interception etc. It is possible it was an accident but with heated situation that won't mean anything. And the last time Russia made an accident leading to loss of civilian life in the west was shooting down MH-17 and they still trying to duck culpability on that one...

Todjaeger · Nov 15, 2022

vonnoobie said:
Depends on rocket type and circumstances of launch as well as any possible interception etc. It is possible it was an accident but with heated situation that won't mean anything. And the last time Russia made an accident leading to loss of civilian life in the west was shooting down MH-17 and they still trying to duck culpability on that one...

Not to mention what the planned/intended target was, as well as where was the point of launch. Unfortunately, this incident could very well lead to further incidents as Poland and NATO would have to respond and deconfliction might not really be possible depending on Russian forces and intent.

T.C.P · Nov 15, 2022

vonnoobie said:
Depends on rocket type and circumstances of launch as well as any possible interception etc. It is possible it was an accident but with heated situation that won't mean anything. And the last time Russia made an accident leading to loss of civilian life in the west was shooting down MH-17 and they still trying to duck culpability on that one...

According to pictures being shared by OSINT community, they are saying that the rocket is an S-300 missile.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592603808634638336

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592626079629422592

John Fedup · Nov 15, 2022

At the very least this incident will provide incentive for the West to provide Ukraine with longer range missiles and/or fighter jets.

Feanor · Nov 15, 2022

T.C.P said:
According to pictures being shared by OSINT community, they are saying that the rocket is an S-300 missile.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592603808634638336

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1592626079629422592

The range of S-300s is such that a launch from Russia to here is unlikely, to put it mildly. It's possible from Belarus, depending on where in Poland this occurred. The likeliest scenario, in my opinion, is that this is a Ukrainian S-300V trying to shoot down a Russian munition striking targets in western Ukraine.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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