The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[IIO2]

Russian Priest, Mikhail Vasiliev, who was the archpriest of the church of St. Barbara the Great Martyr and the Venerable Ilya Muromets, was dispatched by a Ukrainian missile strike in occupied in Ukraine.

Vasiliev famously said (paraphrasing) that Ukrainian women would be less afraid of sending their sons to war in Ukraine, if they simply had given birth to more of them.

I hope for his mother's sake, he had numerous siblings, making his death much less tragic in nature.

Russian priest who advised women to bear more children and send them to war dies in Ukraine (yahoo.com)

 

[STURM]

Nobody cares about the operational circumstances that the Russian brought onto themselves. .

You might think that "nobody cares about the operational circumstances that the Russian brought onto themselves" but it's a legitimate area of study and key to better understanding what went wrong.

The Russian Army dutifully obliged their leadership, literally.

So? Isn't it the job of military to obey the civilian leadership; irrespective of whether the orders are flawed? When conditions were still sound in Aghanistan the U.S. military obliged the leadership by shifting focus to Iraq and see how well things turned out but what has this or the fact that the Russian military obliged the leadership have to do with the price of beans?

Don't put your military in a horrendous position and they won't have to face

Just like how one should eat healthy to stay healthy and avoid consuming any handful substances right? Unfortunately what sounds great on paper can be hard to achieve in reality.

 

[STURM]

They just weren't nearly as good as we (and they) thought they were. Now they're getting their teeth kicked in by one of the poorest countries in Europe, backed by some small / moderate Western support.

As has been pointed out to you the support was considerable; hardly "small / moderate" by any definition.

China isn't helping in any significant way. .

That may change and we really have no idea as to what China might already be assisting with. It's assistance could come in the form of non military but still essential assistance. Not in China's interests to see Russia further weakened.

 

[swerve]

That assumption is base on Ukranian and present Western take.

Ethnic Russians in Ukraine: A look back

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: I started my PhD work back in 1989. And as you can imagine, the most interesting thing in the world was that the Wall came down and the Soviet empire was collapsing, and the nationalities of the former Soviet Union were starting to explode. I did my research on...

www.gzeromedia.com

This guy for example is not Pro Russian anything, and as Western academics he spend much time in Ukraine learning ethnics divisions on Ukraine.

This kind of thinking off course not fall on present agenda in West that want to put everything in Russian invasion and no ethnic division in Ukraine not even in East.

You quote people writing about the attitudes of ethnic Russians in Ukraine. Nothing they say contradicts what I wrote. I said that you were mistaken, & the people who label themselves as Russian were a minority in those four oblasts. I didn't discuss the attitudes of either those Russians, or the larger numbers of people (except in Crimea) who identify as Ukrainians.

You're arguing against something I did not say, as if it weakens what I did say, & making out that your mistake somehow proves wrong thinking by westerners.

 

[swerve]

Am I?

I assure you I am as far from Russia as It Is humanly possible, considering I've seen what post-soviet states looks like and that I served in a NATO army.

What I'm saying Is that yes, war Is expensive for western countries, but not even close to the price Russia Is paying.
If Europe can find a stable Energy flow from Africa and middle East, than war can go on Forever.
It Is a strategic win for NATO, and an enormous One, if they can give mostly old and cheap weapons ( creating work for their own industries ) to a country that Is fighting their biggest enemy, Russia.

NATO has all the interest in the world in taking the biggest advantage possible from this situation, and we surely dont care about ukrainians as much as we do about ourselves.

100k KIA, MIA and WIA Is a huge loss for Russia and an enormous win for NATO, whatever the cost in terms of Ukrainian lives was.

NATO isn't a unitary state. It's an alliance with different governments, with different agendas, & they're all thinking about the next election. Inflicting pain on their own populations purely to hurt Russia isn't an election-winning strategy in most of them.

 

[vikingatespam]

UVZ produced ~350 in 2011, peak production year when domestic and foreign orders were large. Khlopotov recently claimed that the upper limit is 400 with current lines, which makes sense. However keep in mind production bottlenecks can exist in many places. UVZ might be able to churn out that many tanks, but can the engine plant and artillery plant put out the engines and guns? Does the T-90M depend on any foreign electronics that might be harder to source? Also the UVZ is now devoting some of its facilities to the T-72B3 program, as well as BREM-1M production. I suspect both cut into MBT production.

Is UVZ the same company doing the 800 T-62 renovations ?

400 tanks/year is respectable, but like you said, the effect of sanctions may impact that rate.

 

[IIO2]

You might think that "nobody cares about the operational circumstances that the Russian brought onto themselves" but it's a legitimate area of study and key to better understanding what went wrong.



So? Isn't it the job of military to obey the civilian leadership; irrespective of whether the orders are flawed? When conditions were still sound in Aghanistan the U.S. military obliged the leadership by shifting focus to Iraq and see how well things turned out but what has this or the fact that the Russian military obliged the leadership have to do with the price of beans?



Just like how one should eat healthy to stay healthy and avoid consuming any handful substances right? Unfortunately what sounds great on paper can differ in reality.

Your first point is well taken. You're correct in that there are some people who do study why disastrous invasion attempts come to fruition. I'll certainly concede that the Russian invasion of Ukraine will long be studied as prime example of a military disaster. Point conceded.

I take no issue with the Russian military obeying their orders. It's what you would expect from any military with a sense of discipline. I simply pointed out the sequence of events. Their leadership said "go die in Ukraine" and they said "Yes Sir". No shame in that. I personally feel that it was an enormous, unnecessary waste of human life, but who am I to judge? This certainly isn't the first time that Russians have thrown their sons into the wood chipper, as their strategy to win a war. And full credit to them, it was among the most decisive factors in WW2, maybe they thought it would work again? I'm not inside the head of their Generals and their political leadership.

 

[IIO2]

As has been pointed out to you the support was considerable; hardly "small / moderate" by any definition.



That may change and we really have no idea as to what China might already be assisting with. It's assistance could come in the form of non military but still essential assistance. Not in China's interests to see Russia further weakened.

And as I've pointed out to you on numerous occasions, that's simply your narrative and observation. NATO and close allies collectively spend in the neighborhood of $2 Trillion dollars on defense each year, and in 2022 they've spent less than $35 Billion dollars in support of Ukraine. That's peanuts.

If you want to know what significant support looks like, see what the United States provided the Soviets in WWII to help defeat the Germans. U.S. Lend Lease sent the Soviet Union $11.3 Billion dollars worth of military support, equivalent to approximately $180 Billion dollars today, more than 5 times what entire West has sent to Ukraine at this point.

Below are just some of the things the U.S. sent the Soviets during WWII.

• 400,000 jeeps & trucks
• 14,000 airplanes
• 8,000 tractors
• 13,000 tanks
• 1.5 million blankets
• 15 million pairs of army boots
• 107,000 tons of cotton
• 2.7 million tons of petrol products
• 4.5 million tons of food

Can you imagine if the USA sent even a fraction of that to Ukraine, to help fight off the Russians. If they sent even 4000 HMMWVs, compared to the 400,000 the Russians got, it would make an enormous difference. If they sent 1400 jets to Ukraine, compared to the 14000 jets they sent to the Soviet Union, it would make an enormous difference. If they sent 1300 tanks to Ukraine, compared to the 13000 they sent to the Soviet Union, that would make an enormous difference.

That's what "significant" support looks like, historically. Ukraine has received "peanuts" by comparison. Multiply what's been sent to Ukraine by 5x and we're having a different conversation.

World War II Allies: U.S. Lend-Lease to the Soviet Union, 1941-1945 - U.S. Embassy & Consulates in Russia (usembassy.gov)

 

[swerve]

Don't forget the thousands of tanks, aircraft etc. supplied by the Commonwealth countries, & the huge quantities of radios, industrial materials, machine tools, etc.

 

[Big Slick]

Size / amount is relative. The West has sent very small amounts of money to Ukraine relative to their collective GDP's and they've sent very small amounts of largely cheap, and obsolete, Soviet made equipment to Ukraine.

Financial aid from the west is keeping the Ukrainian economy afloat and their government operational. Western arms transfers are keeping Ukraines military in the fight. This is no small thing. I would make the anecdotal observation that the war in Ukraine is not in the forefront of the Americans peoples thoughts. Inflation and a declining standard of living are at the forefront. With that in mind I would not be surprised if the American people begin to question the expenditure of resources in the Ukraine war.

 

[IIO2]

Don't forget the thousands of tanks, aircraft etc. supplied by the Commonwealth countries, & the huge quantities of radios, industrial materials, machine tools, etc.

I haven't forgotten, but I simply used the USA as a basic case study.

People acting like Ukraine has been given substantial help, are ignoring what substantial has looked like historically. Hell, the USA left more than $7 Billion dollars of military equipment behind in Afghanistan when they withdrew last year. They simply didn't want to take is back with them. That literally "threw away" more than Germany, France and the United Kingdom have combined to commit to Ukraine in direct military aid, throughout this entire conflict.

We have to keep perspective.

 

[Rob c]

It seems that the retreat of the Russian army from the Kherson region has in fact happened as there are a large number of stories on the internet i Kherson including MSN of Ukrainian troops entering Kherson and the bridge over the the river now has two spans missing.
Scenes of jubilation as Ukraine army enter Kherson city hours after Russian withdrawal
Ukraine war latest: Crucial Kherson bridge 'blown up' by retreating Russians
I would say that it will take some time to fully occupy all of the region, the dangers of mines and bobby traps will make it necessary for Ukrainian troops to be very cautious. The other problem is that with Russians just across the river, life will be somewhat interesting and dangerous, due to the artillery and drones. I still see statements from Russia saying that Kherson is sill part of Russia, even though they have left.

 

[IIO2]

Financial aid from the west is keeping the Ukrainian economy afloat and their government operational. Western arms transfers are keeping Ukraines military in the fight. This is no small thing. I would make the anecdotal observation that the war in Ukraine is not in the forefront of the Americans peoples thoughts. Inflation and a declining standard of living are at the forefront. With that in mind I would not be surprised if the American people begin to question the expenditure of resources in the Ukraine war.

While all of that is fundamentally true, none of it changes the fact that when compared what the West provided the Soviet Union in WWII, which was truly significant support, the support to Ukraine has amounted to relative peanuts at this point. I'll use my country as an example. Canada has sent Ukraine approximately $600 million dollars of military support and between $1.0-$1.5 billion in financial and humanitarian support. We have the 8th largest nominal GDP globally, at nearly $2.0 Trillion annually, larger than Russia. Sending 0.1% of nominal GDP is not "significant". One can make similar arguments for countries like Germany and France, both of whom also have substantially larger economies than Russia. but have sent relative peanuts.

Food for thought. Canada, the country I referenced above, spent nearly $600 Billion dollars in 2020 and 2021, on pandemic relief. If they committed even 1% of that to help the Ukrainians, they would have sent them $6 Billion already, between 3-4x what they have.

 

[vikingatespam]

USA buying 100,000 rounds of 155mm ammunition from South Korea. The South Koreans are not sending lethal military aid directly to Ukraine, but it's easy to see what the plan is here. 100,000 South Korean rounds will go into U.S. stockpiles, freeing the U.S. to send a further 100,000 rounds out of their existing stockpiles to Ukraine. A nice work around by a non-NATO member, but close ally of the West.

As Italy sends additional M109 Howitzers and France sends more CAESARs, these rounds will likely accompany this latest tranche of Western aid.

The South Koreans are playing a low key, significant role in this conflict. Another example is them selling large amounts of artillery and tanks to Poland, further freeing the Poles up to send some of their legacy equipment to Ukraine.

U.S. in talks to buy South Korean ammunition for Ukraine, official says | Reuters

I have some concern that the 155mm purchase means that the US isnt spinning up ammo production as much as it should.....

 

[John Fedup]

While all of that is fundamentally true, none of it changes the fact that when compared what the West provided the Soviet Union in WWII, which was truly significant support, the support to Ukraine has amounted to relative peanuts at this point. I'll use my country as an example. Canada has sent Ukraine approximately $600 million dollars of military support and between $1.0-$1.5 billion in financial and humanitarian support. We have the 8th largest nominal GDP globally, at nearly $2.0 Trillion annually, larger than Russia. Sending 0.1% of nominal GDP is not "significant". One can make similar arguments for countries like Germany and France, both of whom also have substantially larger economies than Russia. but have sent relative peanuts.

Food for thought. Canada, the country I referenced above, spent nearly $600 Billion dollars in 2020 and 2021, on pandemic relief. If they committed even 1% of that to help the Ukrainians, they would have sent them $6 Billion already, between 3-4x what they have.

I have no way of knowing if junior’s government spent $600 billion on COVID relief or not but it was money we didn’t have which explains our inflation problem, something that isn’t unique to Canada.

 

[IIO2]

I have some concern that the 155mm purchase means that the US isnt spinning up ammo production as much as it should.....

I see it as being the likely result of 3 factors.

1). Numerous reports surfaced that Russia was getting ammunition from the North Koreans, so it would make complete sense to me that the South (even if not directly) would counter this effort with one of their own and are sending that ammunition through the United States, for political reasons.

2). It's likely that United States and NATO are spinning up additional production of 155mm ammunition, but it doesn't happen instantaneously. If Souther Korean surplus ammunition helps Ukraine get through another month of conflict as the West ramps up production, it's of strategic advantage to the Western / Ukrainian alliance.

3). There has been a recent uptick of 155mm artillery sent to Ukraine. M109's from Italy. More CAESARs from France. More Panzerhaubitze 2000's are expected from Germany in relative short order. The increased volume of Western SPG's in Ukraine puts additional strain on their current ammunition stocks. Finding "third parties" that can help alleviate that concern in the short term is, again, strategically advantageous.

 

[vikingatespam]

At this point it will have to be the pre-2014 border.

Had they not invaded, I believe Russia could have kept Crimea indefinitely with no trouble. But they rolled the dice and it came out bad.

At this point I dont know to think what will happen next. The UKR have been great at surprises, but its going to be difficult to handle the (now much larger) RU army, and with the Dnepr in the way, any UKR plans to take Crimea are longer off. I dont see Crimea going UKR unless the RU economy collapses, Putin dies in a mysterious accident, or the RU army folds.

 

[IIO2]

I have no way of knowing if junior’s government spent $600 billion on COVID relief or not but it was money we didn’t have which explains our inflation problem, something that isn’t unique to Canada.

Nobody has this type of money to spend. It's not fun for anyone. But I'd much rather pay an extra few dollars on gas and groceries, then have NATO standby while Putin forces Russian expansionism in Europe, through force and the death of civilians. Putin has gone on record calling the West decadent. One of things he is counting on is that Russians have a history of suffering and will be willing to suffer longer than the West will, to obtain the outcome of this war that he desires. If I had my way, the West would nut up and show uncle Vlad that we're also willing to suffer a little bit of inflation and economic hardship, to ensure that Russia is either defeated in this conflict, or pays such a deep price for victory that it has a generational impact on their economy and their military capability.

 

[John Fedup]

I have some concern that the 155mm purchase means that the US isnt spinning up ammo production as much as it should.....

The US military manufacturing base (and other Western countries) isn’t what it used to be. This war is a grim reminder on the cost of waging war with advanced munitions. Bloody lucky SKorea is able to help. Just look at Poland’s recent acquisitions. The PRC knows their industrial capacity is their biggest advantage over the West in a peer to peer conflict.

 

[IIO2]

The US military manufacturing base (and other Western countries) isn’t what it used to be. This war is a grim reminder on the cost of waging war with advanced munitions. Bloody lucky SKorea is able to help. Just look at Poland’s recent acquisitions. The PRC knows their industrial capacity is their biggest advantage over the West in a peer to peer conflict.

The good news is that the 155mm shells are standardized across most of NATO and the WEST, so it's not simply one country that we're relying on for production. Numerous nations can ramp up production and contribute to the collective good. The South Koreans among them. God knows, the South Koreans have gotten more than their fare share of support from the West over the years. It's nice to see them give back.