The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Larry_L

Active Member
I have been trying to analyze what is going on with the grain deal. Initially I could not understand the statement from Russia that they were ensuring the security of the grain corridor. My thought was that they were the ones it needed to be secured against. Now I see a statement by one of their spokesmen that they were supposedly ensuring safety from mines. I was surprised at their quick turnaround, but the continuation of grain movement without them quite possibly provided enough pressure to change their minds.

Google translated quote: "Russia stopped monitoring the safe movement of dry cargo ships with grain. Mikhail Alexandrov, a leading expert at the Center for Military-Political Studies at MGIMO, said this when commenting in an interview with Pravda.Ru on the suspension of Moscow's participation in the "grain deal". According to him, Russian permission for the passage of ships from the ports of Ukraine through Turkey was never required. As the political scientist explained, the meaning of the participation of the Russian Federation in the "grain deal" was that Moscow ensured the safety of the route."

The possibility that Russia may attack grain ports more heavily without regard to damaging civilian ships and / or grain loading equipment and storage.


The grain corridor, among many other things related to Ukraine comes up during a press conference by unnamed US defense officials. The tone on the grain corridor seems to imply that with the UN, and Turkey involved Russia is mostly irrelevant. Of course, that is my read on what was said between the lines.

Quote: "SENIOR MILITARY OFFICIAL: Yeah, thanks very much, Heather. So your -- your last question first. Nothing particularly new to provide in terms of the Russian naval presence in the Black Sea. Again, as you've heard us say, we would assess that they have probably about a half dozen ships in that region. But again, nothing -- nothing in particular to update you on. In terms of the -- the grain deal, again, we're aware of those reports. You've heard us say that the Ukrainian agricultural products are critical to global food security, and we certainly support the Turkey- and U.N.-brokered deal for these exports via the Black Sea, and so would call on Russia to adhere to the deal's terms. But beyond that, we don't have any additional updates to provide."

The rest of the press conference is worth reading, as there are many other topics covered.


My gut tells me that Russia will probably extend the deal when it comes up for renewal.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
1,000 KIA is quite realistic. Why wouldn't it be? In many state on state conflicts that would be easily achieved in less than a hour. WW1 battles are classic examples of that, and some WW2 battles as well. We humans have grown very technologically efficient at butchering ourselves in warfare over the last 120 years.
The post I saw was less than 1000 reported. If I remember correctly it was slightly over 900, which is still a lot. The scenario where this is possible is with a large concentration of Russian troops attacked by a a volley from a M-270 firing the M30A1 warhead which carries 182,000 tungsten BBs. A volley of 6 can cover half a square mile with proper targeting. I suspect the Ukraine military has been itching to find a good use for them. I think the M-270 can fire a volley of 12. The old saying used to be "One grenade will get you all". I will leave the new saying up to your imagination.

 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
The first photos I saw of the Admiral Grigorovich-Class ships showed two of these ships in port posted by the Russian side claiming no damage. Now I see Satellite photos showing one under tow in the early morning and then late morning parked alongside the quay. If these are confirmed there must have been significant damage.

Im looking at the pics, and which one is supposedly damaged ? In the action videos form the drones, I didnt see one that looked like the drone got close enough.
 

Morgo

Well-Known Member
The post I saw was less than 1000 reported. If I remember correctly it was slightly over 900, which is still a lot. The scenario where this is possible is with a large concentration of Russian troops attacked by a a volley from a M-270 firing the M30A1 warhead which carries 182,000 tungsten BBs. A volley of 6 can cover half a square mile with proper targeting. I suspect the Ukraine military has been itching to find a good use for them. I think the M-270 can fire a volley of 12. The old saying used to be "One grenade will get you all". I will leave the new saying up to your imagination.

That sounds like a truly horrendous thing to be on the receiving end of. I am absolutely no fan of the Russian regime but you've got to feel sorry for any poor conscripts who are copping that. No sympathy for the volunteers however.
 

Larry_L

Active Member
Im looking at the pics, and which one is supposedly damaged ? In the action videos form the drones, I didnt see one that looked like the drone got close enough.
Supposedly the one with the arrow pointin at it moored parallel to the shore with the side the drone approched nearest the shoe. Why would it be under tow it it was not damaged. Hopefully new information will emerge to clarify what happened.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
The post I saw was less than 1000 reported. If I remember correctly it was slightly over 900, which is still a lot. The scenario where this is possible is with a large concentration of Russian troops attacked by a a volley from a M-270 firing the M30A1 warhead which carries 182,000 tungsten BBs. A volley of 6 can cover half a square mile with proper targeting. I suspect the Ukraine military has been itching to find a good use for them. I think the M-270 can fire a volley of 12. The old saying used to be "One grenade will get you all". I will leave the new saying up to your imagination.

Outside of a banzai charge, you would be hard pressed to find a battle from WW2 or later that would involve 1000 KIA in a day, much less an hour. I cant think of one. Berlin ? Stalingrad ? Kursk ? Ardennes ?

Nobody packs troops tightly in a small area if they can help it. Thats dispersion. I will look through my records and see if I can find an example of a battle with 1000 KIA in a day.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
With regards to missile stocks, I think the public actions of the RU - buying drones and now missiles from Iran, is an indication of low stocks. how low ? Who knows....
We know they've been using up a large portion of their stocks but what we don't know is how much they actually had to begin with and whether they're manufacturing new stocks. The reported buying of ammo stocks from North Korea could be an indication that stocks might soon be low based on current useage rates as opposed to stocks already being low. We can't say for sure but what we do know is that the Russians were supposedly low on missile stocks as far back as months ago.

Retreat vs. rout: I suggest this can be judged by the amount of arms and ammunition left behind as a gracious donation to the UKR war effort....
There have been organised retreats and there have been disorganised ones. Depends where we're looking at; when and which units; in one of his talks Michael Kofman talks about the retreat from Kiev being very organised; an effective rear guard action.

Can we say for sure that the bulk of Russian units actually retreated in a chaotic disorganised manner or is it a case of us only hearing about the chaotic disorganised retreats?
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Something might be about to happen in Kherson. There are unconfirmed reports of Russian checkpoints in Chernobaevka pulling back, and of the Russian flag disappearing from the Kherson city administration. Russia flags are still flying on other administrative buildings. Other sources are claiming it was an administrative movement of Russian departments of local government, and one of them took their flag with them when moving and the checkpoints are still in place. Other administrative buildings still have their flags.

 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
We know they've been using up a large portion of their stocks but what we don't know is how much they actually had to begin with and whether they're manufacturing new stocks. The reported buying of ammo stocks from North Korea could be an indication that stocks might soon be low based on current useage rates as opposed to stocks already being low. We can't say for sure but what we do know is that the Russians were supposedly low on missile stocks as far back as months ago.
IIRC Covert Cabal estimated the RU missile production at ~200 /year.

There have been organised retreats and there have been disorganised ones. Depends where we're looking at; when and which units; in one of his talks Michael Kofman talks about the retreat from Kiev being very organised; an effective rear guard action.

Can we say for sure that the bulk of Russian units actually retreated in a chaotic disorganised manner or is it a case of us only hearing about the chaotic disorganised retreats?
Given the large amount of equipment the RU abandoned in the Izyum retreat (700 major pieces or so), it was a rout, IMHO.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
Given the large amount of equipment the RU abandoned in the Izyum retreat (700 major pieces or so), it was a rout, IMHO.
No doubt it was a rout or rather a chaotic retreat but I have no idea about the 700 figure; I take all figures with a large dose of salt given the large doses of exaggeration, isinformation and disinformation we've been fed by both sides and the media.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
A post by GeoConfirmed analyzing the attack on the Russian navy in Sevastopol claims high probability that there were several ships damaged. I would like this to be true, but know little about geographic confirmation.
The twitter feed shows several good videos, and it appears that barring a malfunction of one of the drones, that an Ad. Mak. was impacted on the starboard side, near the front of the ship, in which case, damage would seem to be assured. Another poster here shows a satellite pic of an Ad. Mak. tied up to a pier, shielding its starboard side from view. Coincidence ?
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
No doubt it was a rout or rather a chaotic retreat but I have no idea about the 700 figure; I take all figures with a large dose of salt given the large doses of exaggeration, isinformation and disinformation we've been fed by both sides and the media.
Im using Orxy which uses photographic evidence.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Since Oryx only counts things for which there is photographic evidence & cross-checks reports for duplicates, it's probably a minimum estimate. I suspect it may undercount Ukrainian losses more than Russian, but that's just a gut feeling which could be wrong.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Since Oryx only counts things for which there is photographic evidence & cross-checks reports for duplicates, it's probably a minimum estimate. I suspect it may undercount Ukrainian losses more than Russian, but that's just a gut feeling which could be wrong.
I suspect Oryx might have a bias, but some time ago, when I first started looking at Oryx, it matched well with lostarmour.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
Something might be about to happen in Kherson. There are unconfirmed reports of Russian checkpoints in Chernobaevka pulling back, and of the Russian flag disappearing from the Kherson city administration. Russia flags are still flying on other administrative buildings. Other sources are claiming it was an administrative movement of Russian departments of local government, and one of them took their flag with them when moving and the checkpoints are still in place. Other administrative buildings still have their flags.
It is thought to be a ruse because there are Ukrainian reports of Russian soldiers occupying houses and apartments within Kherson city itself with armed Russian soldiers seen in civilian clothing. However those sightings could be linked to the alleged looting by Russian military personnel of artwork from the Kherson museum

Thinking is that the Russians want to turn it into a kill zone similar to Stalingrad. That would suit the Russians far more than the Ukrainians who have a far more manoeuvre style of fighting. The last thing that they would want is to be trapped into an urban fight.

They are definitely building defences on the eastern banks of the Dnipro River and points further inland.
1667713403785.png
Source:
Report on supposed Russian withdrawal from the city of Kherson

Someone attempted to liquidate Oleksandr Nikulin without success, a judge of the illegal Russian-installed “supreme court" in occupied Donetsk. . He had sentenced British personnel serving in the Ukrainian army and others serving with the Ukrainian Foreign Legion to death.

The Russians have blown up the floodgates of the dam of the Oskil Reservoir in the Kharkiv Region.

UKR artillery strike on Russian Tungusta and Pantasir. Location and date undisclosed.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1588905221341982726?s=20&t=nOHdM8TZmm960wegnxDdOQ

Russian BMP hit by UKR loitering munition. Location and date undisclosed.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1588955655255511040?s=20&t=nOHdM8TZmm960wegnxDdOQ

Alleged Russian mobiks (mobilised) mutiny in Kazan on Friday. More likely a rather highly spirited discussion with senior officers over conditions, although technically a mutiny.
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1588992762380419073?s=20&t=nOHdM8TZmm960wegnxDdOQ

Russian T-80BVM with engine still running captured by UKR forces in the village of Pavlivka, Donetsk Oblast. Date undisclosed.
https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1589003470040100869?s=20&t=nOHdM8TZmm960wegnxDdOQ

Russian Lancet loitering munition taking out UKR M-777 howitzer. Location and date undisclosed.
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1589017436028030976?s=20&t=nOHdM8TZmm960wegnxDdOQ
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
I suspect Oryx might have a bias, but some time ago
Show me a single source which is absolutely free of any biasness. One's either for Russia or for the Ukraine; hardly any room in between. Personally; looking at all the reports over the past few months of corruption issues; low morale; low missile stocks; badly trained units; routs; etc; I'm surprised the Ukrainians are not in the streets of Tula and Moscow by now and that the Russians have not collapsed like they did at Tannenberg in 1914.
 

vikingatespam

Well-Known Member
Show me a single source which is absolutely free of any biasness. One's either for Russia or for the Ukraine; hardly any room in between. Personally; looking at all the reports over the past few months of corruption issues; low morale; low missile stocks; badly trained units; routs; etc; I'm surprised the Ukrainians are not in the streets of Tula and Moscow by now and that the Russians have not collapsed like they did at Tannenberg in 1914.
Dont get me wrong, I think Oryx is the golden standard for OSINT.

As for the RU army: "Quantity has a Quality of its own" - J. Stalin

Given the reverses, and what I suspect is the long term UKR strategy of Rope A Dope, I think the UKR are limited in the size and extent of their offensives for logistical reasons.
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update. Oct 21st-24th

Russian strikes in Kiev, Rovno, Lutsk, Odessa, Rovno region, Khmel'nitskaya region, and Kropivnitskiy.


Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Ukrainian MiG-29 fails to intercept a Russian inbound, possibly due to the AAM failing.


Multiple Shahed-136s inbound to Odessa.


Ukrainian failed attack towards Berislav, Kherson region. Reportedly Russia's 11th VDV is defending.


Allegedly Ukrainian T-72AV destroyed, Kherson region. Note neither Russia nor Ukraine has been spotted using actual T-72AVs. Russia used T-72As early in the conflict (90th TD) which were upgraded with K-1 tiles, but not in this pattern, and not this neatly. Ukraine has recently received t-72As from Macedonia, and if they added K-1 tiles (similar to what they do for incoming Polish T-72Ms) this could be one of them.


A destroyed Ukrainian unit from the 28th Mech Bde. There appears to be a knocked out T-72, allegedly one of the recently supplied ones from Macedonia, a T-64BV, a BRDM-2, and an MT-LB CASEVAC. I might be experiencing deja vu, but have we seen these before? I checked my last few posts but couldn't find them... Warning footage of corpses.


Ukrainian BMP-1 destroyed, (1st), Ukrainian YPR-765 destroyed, possible by land mine (2-3rd), two T-72M1s knocked out, note their mine trawls (4th), T-64BV, (5th) Kherson region.


GMLRS missile fragment, Novaya Kahovka.


Ukraine's 128th Mountain Bde using a captured T-80BVM. Note, the unit was involved in heavy fighting during the recent Ukrainian offensive and took casualties severe enough to cause the region it's from to go into mourning.


In Kherson an explosion killed the head of the local police holding facility. This is likely the work of Ukrainian resistance.


Civilians being evacuated from Kherson are receiving a one-time payment of 100k roubles and a housing certificate. Note this number isn't very large, though it's not a pittance either.


Supermarket shelves in Kherson are empty.


The West.

Ukrainian jet launching a missile that also appears to fail. Chernovtsi region. This seems to be a pattern and suggests that Ukraine is either resorting to using older missiles with higher failure rates or is sourcing missiles from a less-than-reliable source.


Strikes reported in Rovno, Kh-101s were sighted.


Damage from a Russian strike on a power grid substation, Shepetinskoe area, Khmel'nitskaya region.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian artillery, Zaporozhye area.


S-300 missile stage in a yard, in Zaporozhye.


The North.

Kiev stands dark after Russian strikes damage the power grid.


Oskol Front.

Allegedly Ukrainian 120mm mortar positions in Kharkov region getting hit. Note, they're being hit by Russian border guards. This likely means either the northern tip of the Oskol front, or possibly a section of the Kharkov region border.


Captured BTR-82A in Ukrainian service.


Kremennaya remains relatively undamaged, despite it's new position on the front lines.


LDNR Front.


A failed Ukrainian attack, DNR section. We see multiple APCs and IFVs getting destroyed, infantry dismounting and trying to retreat but getting hit. Note, leading the column is a captured BMP-3, and some of the APCs are the Finnish XA-180. I think there's also an M-113 in desert color.


Ukrainian reinforcements trying to enter Opytnoe riding a BMP, get spotted and hit by quadcopter munition drops.


Ukrainian infantry near Optynoe getting hand grenades dropped on them.


DNR sniper taking out Ukrainian infantry. Note the first clip where he takes out one and then fires on the two that show up to evacuate the wounded soldier.


DNR 100th Bde firing a 2S3, that was allegedly originally captured from Ukraine.


Battle damage in Artemovsk/Bakhmut.


The Wagner Line as seen from space and from the ground. It doesn't look too smart to me, to build defenses in this manner.


Inside Artemovsk/Bakhmut, Ukrainian 93rd MechBde riding a T-80BV with K-5 tiles. Considering Ukraine did not produce K-5, it's likely they took it from knocked out Russian vehicles.


D-1 howitzer, mod. '43, in the LDNR.


The DNR has also begun recruiting from prisons. In their case it's not through Wagner but through their MVD.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia.

Reportedly the famous video of a Russian Su-25 pilot ejecting is from Belgorod region, June, when a Su-25 clipped a powerline.


Shebekino, Belgorod region, is reportedly getting hit.


In Bryansk region the rail line was damaged by an explosion. Sabotage is suspected.


A HARM missile shot down Belgorod region.


Reportedly Prigozhin is building a defense line in Belgorod region, and raising a local militia.


Newly set up Russian positions in Kursk region.


A pair of Russian Tu-95s over Crimea. What they're doing there is unclear.


Russian mobilized personnel training on D-30s, T-62s, mortars, and infantry movement. The small fragment shows a team of infantry moving next ot a building. This might be small unit training. This footage is from the Russian Far East, near that 103rd armored repair plant in Chita. The first upgraded T-62MVs are in it. Note we've seen footage of a couple of them in training before. The entire upgrade seems to be a new FCS for the gunner. No sight of the protection improvements that were described.


More Russian mobilized personnel training in the Far East. Note the MT-12 anti-tank gun. Also the MBT we see very briefly appears to be a T-80BVM.


Wagner fighters training before deploying to the front.


Combat training in Novorossiysk. Note the mismatched uniforms. These might be irregulars or also Wagner fighters.


Russian mobilized training in Krasnodar region. Note the uniforms are also mismatched but quite a few are wearing at least pieces of Russian pixel pattern camo.


Russian mobilized personnel training in Rostov region. Note the 2B9s, the BMP-3s, and T-72B3s. Note also the mismatched uniforms.


Russian mobilized personnel training on BMP-3s and T-80BVs in the Far East. This is almost certainly the 155th MarBde.


Russian mobilized personnel training on T-72Bs, T-72As, BTR-82As, and BMP-1AMs. Note the way in which K-1 tiles were added to the T-72As. Instead of an optimally angled V-shape, they're slapped on haphazardly. This makes it relatively easy to distinguish Russian T-72As from AVs, and from Ukrainian T-72s with K-1 added. Note they're also apparently training mobilized personnel as snipers, with SVD and VSS.


Mobilized personnel training against UAVs.


Russian volunteers from Orenburg, preparing to join the Yermak Cossack btln. It appears the pipeline of irregulars is continuing despite the mobilization effort.


Russian troops are receiving a donated home-made technical based on a UAZ Patriot pickup truck.


Russian mobilized personnel, Moscow region, reporting on terrible housing conditions, and lack of supplies. Reportedly they were abandoned for days in a hangar with no electricity or running water and had to purchase their own food. They also allegedly ended up in Ukraine by early October.


More trains, T-62Ms, location and context unclear, (1st), T-90Ms (2nd).


Sources from the 103rd Armored Repair Plant have corrected the earlier info about 800 T-62s being upgraded. 800 is not the number of T-62s but the number of all vehicles they are repairing over the next 3 years. This makes a lot more sense.


Iranian cargo flights continue.


Russia is inspecting bomb shelters in Sevastopol'.


Misc.

Russian LMUR strike on a building. Location and context unclear.


Ukrainian tank getting hit by an ATGM, location and context unclear.


Allegedly Russian S-300 TEL getting hit. Location, context, and date unclear.


A destroyed Russian Pantsyr-S1, location and context unclear. This might be the consequence of Ukraine's SEAD efforts in Kherson region.


Russian National Guard armored Kamaz damaged by shelling, location and context unclear.


Russian Su-30SM with R-77s, R-73s, and Kh-29Ts. The mix of AAMs and ground-attack kit is standard at this point.


A captured Ukrainian T-72 in service with Russian or rebel forces.


A captured Russian T-72B3mod'16 in Ukrainian hands.


A Russian T-80BV with Syrian-style cage armor. The effectiveness of this is highly questionable, especially when NII Stali has produced a proper cage armor kit for various vehicles. This has the makings of organizational failure.


There are reports that Ukraine is pulling old diesel locomotives from storage, due to damage from Russian strikes.


Belarus.

There are reports of Belarussian T-72As being pulled from storage and shipped to Russia.


NATO/EU.


Polish sources report that Ukraine has received 3 artillery btlns of Krab howitzers, that's 54 howitzers out of a total of only 90 produced.

 
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