vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
A sunk ship should likely be leaking oil onto the water and should be noticable by satellite pics. So far there isnt any evidence for a big result.
The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread
- Thread starter Feanor
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vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Occupying authorities in Kherson announce ‘mandatory evacuation’ near Kakhovka hydropower station — Meduza
Vladimir Saldo, Russian-appointed head of the annexed part of the Kherson region, announced the evacuation of residents of areas within a 15-kilometer [about nine-mile] radius of the Dnipro.
RU authorities initiate a mandatory evacuation of the Kherson area. Let the looting begin.
1,000 KIA is quite realistic. Why wouldn't it be? In many state on state conflicts that would be easily achieved in less than a hour. WW1 battles are classic examples of that, and some WW2 battles as well. We humans have grown very technologically efficient at butchering ourselves in warfare over the last 120 years.
Oil can be dispersed by ambient sea conditions and these days there are chemical dispersants. Also satellite detection it depends upon satellite availability, the waveband the image is taken in, time of day, sun position and cloud cover.
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
In one day, in a war of relatively low intensity and high dispersion across most of the front ? I recall reading German and US casualty reports for the westwall battles, and KIA for entire corps were pretty low on a daily basis.
1000 _casualties_, maybe. 1000 KIA, doubt it. 1000 KIA = 4000 WIA, for 5000 casualties in one day ? Hmmmm.....
not the clearest resource, but here:
Germany KIA for June 6 to August 31 = 30,000. About 555/day for a period of high intensity warfare. Allies were ~800/day.
A better comparison would be casualties as a % of force, but its hard to lay the groundwork for both sides here.
Weapon lethality has increased steadily, but losses as a % of force have declined over the same time. A bit of a paradox, but its due to dispersion. DuPuy/QJM.
vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
Granted, but given that the RU didnt even appear to have torpedo nets across the harbor entrance, Im not going to give them high chances for having dispersants on hand. Color me jaded.
Not saying that the 1,000 claimed by Ukraine is accurate but the battlefield in Ukraine is a mix of scenarios between WWI, WWII and modern assets mixed in. Some areas it's mobile warfare and others it's largely trench warfare.
So using WWII as a basis doesn't really mean much. You are also comparing Germany fighting the US/UK compared to comparing Germany fighting the Soviet Union which would be a more useful comparison.
You are also making an assumption that the KIA/WIA ratio would be 1-4. Quite often in this war we have seen the KIA/WIA ratio tipping to a higher KIA then we have seen historically. One should also take into account that if the Russian medical personnel/units are only able to handle X amount of casualties a day and they get a really bad day suffering Y amount of casualties then there is a good chance that those they may have been able to save under normal circumstances would die to to lack of resources to get them needed aid in time.
Redlands18
Well-Known Member
Putin's conscripts can end up at Ukraine's largest POW camp. They can only hope for a trade - ABC News
An article from ABC Australia about a visit to a Ukrainian POW Camp located in the Lviv region of NW Ukraine. From this report the POWs are being treated as per the Geneva Convention with Medical, 3 meals a day and even allowed electronic contact with family in Russia. ABC reports that there are about 50 POW swaps a week.
It is in Ukraine's best interests to ensure that Russian POWs are properly taken care off, no excuses for lack of food and medical supplies, inspections by neutral teams etc.
One thing in the report about POW swaps is, that money talks in Russia and poorer Conscripts have a lower priority for Russian negotiators.
An article from ABC Australia about a visit to a Ukrainian POW Camp located in the Lviv region of NW Ukraine. From this report the POWs are being treated as per the Geneva Convention with Medical, 3 meals a day and even allowed electronic contact with family in Russia. ABC reports that there are about 50 POW swaps a week.
It is in Ukraine's best interests to ensure that Russian POWs are properly taken care off, no excuses for lack of food and medical supplies, inspections by neutral teams etc.
One thing in the report about POW swaps is, that money talks in Russia and poorer Conscripts have a lower priority for Russian negotiators.
This article though a little dated suggests that corruption has played some part in the causalities incurred by Russian forces e.g lack of body armour medical kits
Corruption in the Russian Armed Forces | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
This article has an allegation of forces required to attack a position without ammunition
Wagner forces: Morale is plummeting in Putin's private army as Russia's war in Ukraine falters | CNN
Russia to this point claims casualty figures are a state secret ,President Putin in 2015 passed a law that Russian casualties unless in wars were such ,perhaps another reason that President Putin does not want this called a war
Russia classifies military casualties in peacetime — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union
Russian Casualties in Syria in 2017 May Be Four Times as High as Official Figures State - Syria - Haaretz.com
Corruption in the Russian Armed Forces | Royal United Services Institute (rusi.org)
This article has an allegation of forces required to attack a position without ammunition
Wagner forces: Morale is plummeting in Putin's private army as Russia's war in Ukraine falters | CNN
Russia to this point claims casualty figures are a state secret ,President Putin in 2015 passed a law that Russian casualties unless in wars were such ,perhaps another reason that President Putin does not want this called a war
Russia classifies military casualties in peacetime — RT Russia & Former Soviet Union
Russian Casualties in Syria in 2017 May Be Four Times as High as Official Figures State - Syria - Haaretz.com
Todjaeger
Potstirrer
Not speaking directly about the current Russia-Ukraine conflict as I do not know enough about either side's casevac/medevac or emergency medical capabilities, but for other nations at least it is not a paradox at all.
Yes, weapon lethality has certainly increased in conflicts, but so to has the quality of medical treatment as well as how quickly treatment can often be started and then transport to facilities for surgical care. This has been one of the reasons why in some conflict areas there have been so many wounded personnel, because they were able to survive injuries that in past conflicts would have proven fatal.
Corruption in the Russian Armed Forces
Corruption is endemic in Russia and is pervasive within its defence industrial sector and armed forces. Evidence from Ukraine suggests that it is costing Russian lives.
rusi.org
I have no doubt that corruption is/was an issue but even if there was no corruption the Russian army would still have struggled; for reasons well known. Also, as Michael Kofman points out the corruption issue has been overplayed and exaggerated.
Morale is plummeting in Putin's private army as Russia's war in Ukraine falters | CNN
The Ukrainians' bodies lay side-by-side on the grass, the earth beside them splayed open by a crater. Dragged to the spot by Russian mercenaries, the victims' arms pointed to where they had died.
edition.cnn.com
We've been hearing non stop about morale issues for months now but surprisingly we haven't seen mass surrenders or desertions.
Low morale does not necessary lead to mass surrenders or desertions, even when there is low morale there are other factors at play that will keep units together. Low morale will make units less effective, but the fear of the unknown, a natural desire to stick with the group of people that you have become comfortable with or friends with and discipline, which my understanding can tend to be somewhat hash in some sections of the Russian military. I think it would be unlikely that you will see mass desertions, unless the problem increases to include the complete structure of a unit. As for mass surrenders, this is unlikely unless a unit becomes completely isolated and surrounded. Low morale will lead to risk aversion by the individual and lower performance levels.
These articles suggest that deserters are shot and there might be a morale problem
How Russia 'plans to SHOOT anyone fleeing combat' | Daily Mail Online
Russia Now Has a Second Frontline Set Up Just to Kill Its Deserters: Intel (thedailybeast.com)
This article cites a Russian installed leader admitting to issues with training and equipment for its forces
Russia-Installed Leader in Ukraine Complains About Equipment, Training (msn.com)
This article suggests a cause of a morale problem is the non payment of promised bonuses for signing on
Russian Troops Demand Promised Enlistment Money From Superiors, Video Shows (msn.com)
How Russia 'plans to SHOOT anyone fleeing combat' | Daily Mail Online
Russia Now Has a Second Frontline Set Up Just to Kill Its Deserters: Intel (thedailybeast.com)
This article cites a Russian installed leader admitting to issues with training and equipment for its forces
Russia-Installed Leader in Ukraine Complains About Equipment, Training (msn.com)
This article suggests a cause of a morale problem is the non payment of promised bonuses for signing on
Russian Troops Demand Promised Enlistment Money From Superiors, Video Shows (msn.com)
Indeed but this is an army which we've been told has had morale issues since February and it's November now. I have absolutely no doubt that morale is an issue but I suspect it's been exaggerated [like many reports we've been fed] and it varies greatly from unit to unit.
Russians fled Kharkiv faster than Usain Bolt. At this point, it's hard to deny their morale issues.
Nobody is denying there are morale issues [as was clearly made clear in my post]. What I'm suggesting is that the issue of morale may have been exaggerated [like various other things] and that it varies from unit to unit. We've been hearing about morale issues since February and it's November now; an army with deep rooted and widespread morale issues has lasted this long? If the Russians are still in the fight in 6 months time are we still going to hear about morale issues? Or about how Russia is supposedly low on missile stocks; despite us not knowing how many missiles it had to begin with. I also question if some of the claims we hear are based on actual intel or is an attempt at disinformation.
As for fleeing ''faster'' maybe but was it a hasty organised retreat to prevent being outflanked or was it a rout? I have no idea.
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vikingatespam
Well-Known Member
With regards to missile stocks, I think the public actions of the RU - buying drones and now missiles from Iran, is an indication of low stocks. how low ? Who knows....
Retreat vs. rout: I suggest this can be judged by the amount of arms and ammunition left behind as a gracious donation to the UKR war effort....
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Larry_L
Active Member
The first photos I saw of the Admiral Grigorovich-Class ships showed two of these ships in port posted by the Russian side claiming no damage. Now I see Satellite photos showing one under tow in the early morning and then late morning parked alongside the quay. If these are confirmed there must have been significant damage.
www.pravda.com.ua
Sevastopol “drone attack”: first satellite images are published
The first satellite images of Sevastopol Bay have appeared since the so-called “drone attack” on warships of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in temporarily occupied Crimea on 29 October.
www.pravda.com.ua
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I have heard Russia is expecting a military pause over the Winter months. Perhaps they are being optimistic about this. It seems the Ukrainians have a substantial amount of Winter gear being provided by NATO while the Russians have problems maintaining logistics even in the warmer months.
I am imagining that all those Russian soldiers huddled around campfires trying to stay warm will be easy pickings for weapons equipped with thermal targeting systems.
If Russians are retreating now I expect things to get even worse for them in the coming months.
I am imagining that all those Russian soldiers huddled around campfires trying to stay warm will be easy pickings for weapons equipped with thermal targeting systems.
If Russians are retreating now I expect things to get even worse for them in the coming months.