Russia - General Discussion.

[swerve]

I know it's a big country but is there any Ukrainian territory which is unpopulated per see

The evacuated area around the Chernobyl power station site. It's up against the Belarus border, but the region the other side of the border was also evacuated.

and even if there is and it was nuked; would the fall out spread to populated areas?

Yes, it'd spread. How much & how far depends on many factors, including weather. I think the most likely direction for it to spread is ENE, though, i.e. away from most of Ukraine & into SE Belarus & western Russia.

It would also disrupt the maintenance of the Chernobyl site, risking further releases of radioactive material.

 

[vikingatespam]

The evacuated area around the Chernobyl power station site. It's up against the Belarus border, but the region the other side of the border was also evacuated.


Yes, it'd spread. How much & how far depends on many factors, including weather. I think the most likely direction for it to spread is ENE, though, i.e. away from most of Ukraine & into SE Belarus & western Russia.

It would also disrupt the maintenance of the Chernobyl site, risking further releases of radioactive material.

Any use of a WMD runs the risk of RU alienating itself from those its still does business with. India and China would both find themselves under increasing internal and external pressure to sever remaining economic ties.

Does Putin care ? Hard to tell.

 

[Terran]

Not to mention if you did Nuke The Pripyat area you would likely churn up all the fall out from the original fire spreading more fallout over half of Europe. I mean there are already worries from when the Russian forces dug up portions of the Zone for fighting positions. Unprotected Russian soldiers disturbed radioactive dust in Chernobyl's 'Red Forest', workers say
A few trenches probably wasn’t enough to start nightmares but the Black rain of a bomb combined with the black rain of residual just doesn’t sound like a good idea.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

A major embarrassing cockup for sure but looked objectively; apart from maybe having armed guards and strict vetting how does on ensure that such an incident does not occur at the numerous bases where people are being mobilised?

It's not that the incident happened, it's that 26 volunteers were killed or wounded by what appears to have just been two people on a military facility. Sure none of us were there, but the casualty rate is way in excess of the sorts of events you mentioned. To me, casualties of that scale suggest dereliction of duty or severe negligence of some sort.

 

[vonnoobie]

My main concern is that Putin will conduct a nuclear "test" above the black sea... perhaps within comfortable viewing distance of media in Odesa. I think everyone agrees that use of a tactical nuke on Ukrainian soil would cause a NATO response. But what about if it's over the sea? A zero casualty stunt to cause fear and panic?

Except that one could still cause long term casualties. Looking at this wind map Windy as forecasted has the wind in region blowing south so any fall out from a nuclear explosion could be straddling the Romanian, Bulgarian and Turkish costs, All NATO members.

 

[tonnyc]

I know it's a big country but is there any Ukrainian territory which is unpopulated per see and even if there is and it was nuked; would the fall out spread to populated areas? There is also the chance that instead of a lot yield weapon; Putin might decide on a chemical option.

Snake Island is unpopulated.

As for fall-out, a low yield tactical nuke will have little fall-out. It will still be detectable (radiation detectors today can detect the radiation your own body emits) and it will eventually be detectable thousands of km away, spread by the weather. The actual health effect will be insignificant, but people will get scared and anti-nuclear groups will stoke this fear. But how this fear will impact policy I can't predict. For one thing, Turkey and Belarus will be impacted. It doesn't matter whether the fallout reached them and in what quantity, the belief that it's there is sufficient to make the people there afraid. Belarus has been aiding Russia. Will their people resent Russia for putting them at risk of radiation poisoning? Turkey is working with both Ukraine and Russia. If people in Istanbul got scared, what would Turkey do? Russia is building a multi-billion dollar nuclear power plant in Turkey. Will this get politically endangered?

 

[Cooch]

The debate on whether Putin is a rational actor or not, must not rest on “mirroring”, which is the assumptiin that he must think like we do, to be rational..

We think in terms of money. He thinks in terms of power. If he impoverishes his people and gets a million of them killed, but enhances his power both domestically and internationally, he will probably count the suffering of his people as an acceptable price to pay.

I have just been reminded that conditions for the Russian Revolution were partly due to a lost war and large numbers of disillusioned troops returning home. If Putin decides that using nukes allows him to avoid this, he will do it. The strategy of the West must be to convince Putin that using nukes will make things worse for him, not better.

If. Putin were truly irrational, the most sensible option may well be a First Strike, because the alternative is sitting back and letting him do endless damage until it reaches that point anyway. The alternative is to work on the assumption that he is rational, but working to a different set of values

 

[Cooch]

Thomas Sowell writes about what he calls the “Middle-Man Minority” syndrome.

In many cultures, there are minorities (Jews, Chinese in SE Asia, Indians in both Africa and the Pacific) who are typically better educated and engage in trade more than the resident majority does. Because they are usually more affluent than the majority AND culturally distinct, it is very easy for the majority to develop the idea that that affluence is due to “unfairness”. It is always easier to create myths about those who are not like you, and when you don't understand the effort, cost and risk involved in creating that prosperity.

It is far easier to shout slogans about how “they stole it from us”, so “We should take it from them“... than it is to do for yourself what made those “others” prosperous in the first place.

It is also easy for western intellectuals, with strongly-held views on “equality”, but zero experience in actually creating wealth, to repeat those slogans.

Western success is built on cultural, governmental and economic systems built over 2000 years. Imitating them over a few decades is a formidable challenge, but thosewho aren’t prepared to do the work, have no right to complain.

 

[Cooch]

Russia appears to have a centuries-long case of “Poor-Bugger-Me” syndrome.

Australians will understand the term.

 

[King Wally]

Yes.

But it's the nearest thing to an unpopulated area. There are some sparsely populated rural areas, but nowhere else which is really unpopulated.

The Black Sea .... or if you wanted to be more controversial Snake Island as tonnyc pointed out. You get all the terrifying visuals, but you can keep a straight face and call it a test rather than combat use.

I don't even think the radiation issue would be as severe as people assume. There have been a LOT of nuclear tests done over the years -

...one more to prove a point won't be beyond Putins line of thinking.

I also don't believe NATO would want to get directly involved at this level, but it certainly would stoke debate in Europe and may lead to calls to "bring a peace deal to the table" even if it comes at a cost to Ukraine. I.e Crimea

 

[Cooch]

My guess is that the use of tactical nuke would see direct NATO intervention in the Ukraine resulting in the defeat of Russia in the Ukraine. What happens after that is the question. NATO intervention in the Ukraine will give Putin the justification he needs to respond in certain ways and the Russian public - even those who are against him - might see NATO intervention as a threat towards Russia.

There’s a lot of analysis of Russian culture and attitudes, generally.

My thought is that there is a generous helping of victim syndrome, also known as learned helplessness or poor-bugger-me syndrome. It’s typical of groups that are less successful than those around them, and which believe that this lack of success is due to malevolence by others rather than their failure to do what has worked for those others.

We see it most often in some minority communities, and it is frequently used by would-be “leaders” to stoke resentment and justify violence . It fits very well with Putin’s frequent diatribes against “The West” as “an existential threat” to Russia. It completely ignores the amount of investment from Western sources after the Soviet collapse, that could have helped build a thriving Russian economy, or interprets it as a takeover. Yes, it looks like paranoia, and probably is.

The other half of the problem, is that if you always see yourself as the “victim”, then “hitting back” is always justified. You don’t have to be specific, because “they” are everywhere, and you don’t have to restrain yourself because “they“ are always more powerful have always done more damage to you, than you can possibly do to them

 

[Cooch]

KW..
I couldn’t help looking at the number of tests done in the Western US and thinking “that explains California.
But yes, one more would make little real difference.

What kind of tests are we talking about, here? Just explosive devices, or reactor trials, too.

 

[King Wally]

KW..
I couldn’t help looking at the number of tests done in the Western US and thinking “that explains California.
But yes, one more would make little real difference.

What kind of tests are we talking about, here? Just explosive devices, or reactor trials, too.

Regarding the Youtube video, these are actual Nuclear Explosions.
"time-lapse map of the 2053 nuclear explosions which have taken place between 1945 and 1998, beginning with the Manhattan Project's "Trinity" test near Los Alamos and concluding with Pakistan's nuclear tests in May of 1998"
I'm not a radiation specialist, but I am of the understanding that such a test if done right over the Black Sea wouldn't necessarily lead to forced civilian evacuation of coastal cities due to radiation. Sure it would be higher levels than anyone is comfortable with but it wouldn't have to mean a large Chernobyl style exclusion zone for example. What it certainly would do is go viral and panic people worldwide. I'm old enough to remember watching the French blow up parts of the South Pacific with their nuke tests. Folks perhaps forget this used to be a regular occurrence, it's been so long I think we're in for proper shock value if the card is played in the modern era of Facebook and TikTok and the dubious quality of information and commentary that would breed from the vision.

 

[STURM]

To me, casualties of that scale suggest dereliction of duty or severe negligence of some sort.

I would agree but as I mentioned; even if all the precautions are taken its hard to prevent such attacks; especially if they come from within.

 

[STURM]

So are you willing to allow Russia to have Crimea?

Are you willing to see a nuke exchange because of the Crimea? A nuke exchange which BTW might involve Canada. Russia no doubt is willing to risk a hell of a lot over the Crimea but is West willing to do the same?

At the end of the day, leaving Crimea to Russia in exchange for massive war reparation payment is a decent solution for the West.

Never mind what's ''decent'' for the West. Ultimately it boils down to what's feasible and realistic. Putin - despite being cornered and weak - still has say and the West is acutely aware of this. Putin still has various cards up his sleeve.

There’s a lot of analysis of Russian culture and attitudes, generally.

Indeed there is and as things get worse for Russia and if the West is seen as being the main culprit; many Russians might rally to their government; not because they're particularly enamoured of Putin or are convinced that Zelensky and his government are national socialists but because despite all its faults Russia is still their homeland - moya Rodina.

It’s typical of groups that are less successful than those around them, and which believe that this lack of success is due to malevolence by others rather than their failure to do what has worked for those others.

To be objective there are ''groups that are less successful than those around them'' because of factors beyond their control or actions undertaken by more powerful and successful groups. It's also self serving of more powerful and successful groups to claim that less successful groups should just get over it and move on when they're the ones who share a large blame foe the predicament less successful groups find themselves in; including being in a rut they have problems getting out of.

The strategy of the West must be to convince Putin that Using nukes will make things worse for him, not better.

Fine on paper but ultimately if he's convinced that his back is to the wall and that the use of a low yield weapon will produce results he will use it; irrespective of what the West threatens.

It completely ignores the amount of investment from Western sources after the Soviet collapse, that could have helped build a thriving Russian economy, or interprets it as a takeover. Yes, it looks like paranoia, and probably is.

It wasn't a one way street. The Russians also cooperated; on arms treaties; initiatives like Partnership For Peace; providing info to UN arms inspectors over Saddam's ballistic missiles and a host of other things. During that period Russia - initially - welcomed the notion of closer integration to the West.

I have just been reminded that conditions for the Russian Revolution were partly due to a lost war and large numbers of disillusioned troops returning home.

Defeats on the battlefield; food shortages; deep divisions within Russian society; a Czar who was losing his grip, etc.

 

[Rob c]

To be objective there are ''groups that are less successful than those around them'' because of factors beyond their control or actions undertaken by more powerful and successful groups. It's also self serving of more powerful and successful groups to claim that less successful groups should just get over it and move on when they're the ones who share a large blame foe the predicament less successful groups find themselves in; including being in a rut they

What you say here is only part of the problem. the culture of that group and their up bringing as children, the general attitude of their parents and past generations play a very big part in a persons likely hood of any success.

Often they are due to the factors I have stated already programed to fail before they have even left school and possibly before they even went to school. This lack of understanding also leads to the few who manage to succeed as being held up as examples with the words " if they can do it anyone can" This is a ridiculous pronouncement as the said people are the exceptions and are exceptional and to expect all of a said group to be exceptional is bloody ridiculous.

It will take a lot of effort in any deprived group, particularly with the children and probably over several generations to lift them up to another level.

 

[Cooch]

Are we still trying to frame this as “Russia vs. the West”, without asking what is “decent” for the Ukrainians?

Putin only has his back against the wall because he invaded another country, in defiance of agreements, without any independently-verified justification, and without the solid support of the majority of his people.

Let’s not kid ourselves, Putin is only afraid that he will lose his position, because the Russian people are going to hate being losers, not because they were wedded to the idea of owning a Ukraine that hated them.

As for what it takes to build a prosperous economy.... An objective study of former British colonies has found that their prosperity is almost directly correlated with the retention of two British institutions - the Rule of Law and a disinterested (in its proper sense) public service and judiciary. The distinguishing characteristics of third-world societies (which also exist within first-world nations) are a culture of corruption, lack of respect for the law, and lack of a work ethic. Lack of resources is not a factor.

Creating these may take centuries, but you cannot expect business to flourish in a culture where contracts will not be enforced, legislation and administration are capricious and service is determined by personal relationship.

Russia shows the common signs of such dysfunctional groups. Low productivity, high rates of substance abuse and high-rates of within-group violence ... along with a paranoid distrust of outsiders. The fact that Russians who operate outside of Russia and operate by the normal laws that we are familiar with, often do well, makes no impression.

 

[STURM]

Putin only has his back against the wall because he invaded another country, in defiance of agreements, without any independently-verified justification, and without the solid support of the majority of his people

Yes everyone knows that and if they need any reminders all they need to do is listen to statements made by Zelensky and others. The issue was not about morality or how decent a bloke Putin or how aggressive Russia is but about his possible use of nukes and what night drive him to employ them...
.

 

[Cooch]

What you say here is only part of the problem. the culture of that group and their up bringing as children, the general attitude of their parents and past generations play a very big part in a persons likely hood of any success. Often they are due to the factors I have stated already programed to fail before they have even left school and possibly before they even went to school. This lack of understanding also leads to the few who manage to succeed as being held up as examples with the words " if they can do it anyone can" This is a ridiculous pronouncement as the said people are the exceptions and are exceptional and to expect all of a said group to be exceptional is bloody ridiculous.
It will take a lot of effort in any deprived group, particularly with the children and probably over several generations to lift them up to another level.

With respect, not so.
I’m deliberately not going to name names, because this does not need to become political, but...

I can point to a racial group in this country - in which I have family - in which over 50% are economically and socially indistinguishable from the rest of society. At levels like this, it becomes blindingly obvious that group membership is not the determining factor. At the same time, there are sub-groups into which huge resources are poured, yet amongst them, violence and substance-abuse are endemic.... and children are actively discouraged from attending school or getting useful skills.

Actually I will name one, because I have ancestry amongst them. The Irish.
Most Australians are familiar with the Ned Kelly mythos in which Ned claimed to be rebelling against the English on behalf of the poor, downtrodden Irish. Reality is that Ned had a gift of the gab and a penchant for stealing other people’s property, something he later boasted of doing on a large scale before he became notorious. Ned had never seen Ireland. In contrast, there were more Irishmen in the Police Party at Stringybark Creek, than in the Kelly Gang. The Judge who sentenced Ned to death for those murders, was Irish-born..... and to top it off, in the year that Ned was hanged, the Irish-born leader of the Eureka-Stockade rebellion - Peter Lalor - was elected Speaker of the Victorian Legislative Assembly.

The fallacy is in arguing that “anybody” can succeed, because not everybody can succeed in any group. The vast majority lack the skills, intelligence and drive necessary. What matters, is that membership of a particular group does not deny you the opportunity.

 

[Cooch]

Yes everyone knows that and if they need any reminders all they need to do is listen to statements made by Zelensky and others. The issue was not about morality or how decent a bloke Putin or how aggressive Russia is but about his possible use of nukes and what night drive him to employ them...
.

Sturm....
With respect, if everybody “knows” that, then maybe it should be included in the calculations.
Deals made over Ukrainian land that do not include the Ukrainians are highly likely to either fail, or produce more casualties than a small number of tactical nukes.

Ukrainian lives matter.
Ukrainian attitudes matter...
..... and both have the potential to limit or direct any actions that other democracies in respect to this conflict.