The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Vivendi]

It seems Pakistan supplied some ammo to the UK which was then shipped to Ukraine: Pakistan, Ukraine, And The Race For Third-Party Ammunition (thedrive.com)

Beginning on August 6, open-source intelligence began to reveal that a U.K. Royal Air Force (RAF) C-17 Globemaster III aircraft (serial ZZ143) was conducting almost daily flights from Romania’s Cluj International Airport or RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus to Pakistan’s Nur Khan Air Base. This development came days after Britain announced it would be supplying Ukraine with more than 50,000 Soviet-type artillery shells. Over the course of 15 days, the C-17 Pakistan-Romania airlift effort completed a total of 12 trips, leading many analysts to assume that the United Kingdom was transporting military supplies for the Ukrainians. No flights have been tracked between these destinations since August 22.

South Korea is not the only potential non-NATO supplier to NATO countries: South Africa also has manufacturing capabilities, and a contract was signed in July to produce 155mm shells for a NATO customer: Major order from NATO customer: Rheinmetall supplying 155mm artillery ammunition in the upper-two-digit million-euro range - EDR Magazine

 

[Vivendi]

Will this then open Russia to do similar thing toward bridges or railways on Ukraine border with Poland ? This war just being up one notch.

According to Ukraine Battle Map, the bombing happened more than 10 km from Russia's official border.
Ukraine Battle Map on Twitter: "The Crimean Bridge Bombing did not occur on Russian Territory The explosion occurred on Ukrainian Territory more than 5km from Russia’s Territorial Waters, and 10km from Russia’s official border on the bridge " / Twitter
Russia has already escalated this as much as they are capable of -- terror bombing civilian targets and infrastructure all over Ukraine. Russia of course still has significant military capabilities, and they will probably keep committing war crimes in Ukraine. The West must keep supporting Ukraine until Russia withdraws.

Finnish PM clearly explained the way out of the conflict:
Rikhard Husu on Twitter: "Finnish prime minister Sanna Marin was asked about a potential off-ramp for Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Her reply: https://t.co/VblWxkMuFc" / Twitter

What a great politician -- I wish Norway had a PM like that!

 

[vikingatespam]

!!!!! I found this video at the moment of impact ? detonation ?

Baza

Ещё одно видео взрыва на Крымском мосту. Судя по кадрам, взрыв произошёл в точке, где находились грузовая и легковая машины.

t.me

After the explosion, after a few seconds you see a lot of sparks, being blown primarily from the right side to the left. While it happens to be centered on the front truck in the right lane, woudnt a truck bomb not be blowing debree primarily in one direction ? Unless maybe there was a strong wind ?

EDIT: with the rail section seriously damaged/unusable and one set of lanes out, RU might have to shift supply the Kherson region forces through over land routes which are subject to partisan attacks. What a headache thats going to cause.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Crimea bridge partly reopens after huge explosion - Russia

The explosion wrecked one section of Europe's longest bridge, reportedly killing three people.

www.bbc.co.uk

"Russia says the railway part of the bridge - where oil tankers caught fire - will reopen on Saturday.

They also claim road traffic will begin on an undamaged lane this evening."

That seems rather reckless, given it's improbable they'll have had time to do a proper structural check. Seems to me quite possible this is a propaganda exercise, such as driving some empty trucks and shunting empty train wagons to pretend everything is fine.

 

[vonnoobie]

Crimea bridge partly reopens after huge explosion - Russia

The explosion wrecked one section of Europe's longest bridge, reportedly killing three people.

www.bbc.co.uk

"Russia says the railway part of the bridge - where oil tankers caught fire - will reopen on Saturday.

They also claim road traffic will begin on an undamaged lane this evening."

That seems rather reckless, given it's improbable they'll have had time to do a proper structural check. Seems to me quite possible this is a propaganda exercise, such as driving some empty trucks and shunting empty train wagons to pretend everything is fine.

That or they need the line so badly higher ups over ruling the guys that know what they talk about... If the line is damaged as one could summerise it would be from the prolonged fire and heat leat alone the explosion they risk causing a worse incident rushing it into use before proper repairs performed.

 

[vikingatespam]

Crimea bridge partly reopens after huge explosion - Russia

The explosion wrecked one section of Europe's longest bridge, reportedly killing three people.

www.bbc.co.uk

"Russia says the railway part of the bridge - where oil tankers caught fire - will reopen on Saturday.

They also claim road traffic will begin on an undamaged lane this evening."

That seems rather reckless, given it's improbable they'll have had time to do a proper structural check. Seems to me quite possible this is a propaganda exercise, such as driving some empty trucks and shunting empty train wagons to pretend everything is fine.

This is reaching silly levels of Russian double speak as people can see the videos everywhere. No one is going to believe there is only light damage. Would you drive over any part of that right now ? Not me.

 

[Hari Sud]

Has Russian War effort in Ukraine lost steam

Has Russia begun to loose the war or CIA; MI6 manufactured news is misinforming us. There are two aspects which are very clear:

1. Russia is short on tactical military hardware; probably used most of it and asking for Iran to supply some very specialized items.

2. Russia is speeding up military recruitment of young people to fight the war (called Draft in US). That indicates that they are short on not only materials as mentioned above but also men to handle them.

These backgrounders do indicate that war is not going in favor of Russia at all.

Then comes the peace proposals which India and Turkey have mooted out (Watch out for Turkey). Winter is coming and the energy prices in the Europe have tripled already hence to save anymore pain it is better to listen to peace proposals i.e. any peace proposals, no matter who proposes them. The matter is in between Western Europe and Russia. Keep US out of all discussions because they are unaffected rather they are the gainers In this whole episode of death and destruction. Their status as the world‘s only power has further improved.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

This is reaching silly levels of Russian double speak as people can see the videos everywhere. No one is going to believe there is only light damage. Would you drive over any part of that right now ? Not me.

Maybe you would if you had a gun pointed at you? I expect anyone going over that bridge in the next 24 hours will be told they have no choice in the matter. As I suggested, maybe they'll have an empty load so Russian media can show "normal deliveries" resuming. In those circumstances taking your chances with the bridge instead of the men with the guns might be worth it.

 

[vikingatespam]

Maybe you would if you had a gun pointed at you? I expect anyone going over that bridge in the next 24 hours will be told they have no choice in the matter. As I suggested, maybe they'll have an empty load so Russian media can show "normal deliveries" resuming. In those circumstances taking your chances with the bridge instead of the men with the guns might be worth it.

Thats about the only circumstance I would do it, as there isnt enough beer in the world for me to yell out of my car window "hey, watch this" !" as I gun the engine and try and make it across.

RU sources are starting to claim the bridge is largely back open. Well, other than the multiple collapsed spans for cars and trucks. The rail bridge must of sustained some serious structural damage from the fire. I guess we shall see.

EDIT: can high temperature fires ruin the structural integrity of rebar concrete ? I am not an engineer. I found this:

https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsomega.2c03414#:~:text=Exposure%20of%20RC%20members%20to,load%20capacity%20of%20concrete%20members

.

"Depending on the outcomes of the previous experimental studies, an RC member’s structural strength increases when the internal temperature is between 150 and 250 °C and degradation starts after 300 °C."

 

[Rob c]

!!!!! I found this video at the moment of impact ? detonation ?

Baza

Ещё одно видео взрыва на Крымском мосту. Судя по кадрам, взрыв произошёл в точке, где находились грузовая и легковая машины.

t.me

After the explosion, after a few seconds you see a lot of sparks, being blown primarily from the right side to the left. While it happens to be centered on the front truck in the right lane, woudnt a truck bomb not be blowing debree primarily in one direction ? Unless maybe there was a strong wind ?

EDIT: with the rail section seriously damaged/unusable and one set of lanes out, RU might have to shift supply the Kherson region forces through over land routes which are subject to partisan attacks. What a headache thats going to cause.

I suspect the sparks are subject to a brisk wind, however when I look at the explosion, particularly to the sides of the bridge , it is noticeable that there is an initial amount of explosive material flowing along the sea out from under the bridge. This suggests to me either that the expulsion originated under the bridge or was so powerful that it instantly went straight through the bridge. While I am no expert on explosives, I am leaning towards an under the bridge explosion's at this stage.

 

[vikingatespam]

I suspect the sparks are subject to a brisk wind, however when I look at the explosion, particularly to the sides of the bridge , it is noticeable that there is an initial amount of explosive material flowing along the sea out from under the bridge. This suggests to me either that the expulsion originated under the bridge or was so powerful that it instantly went straight through the bridge. While I am no expert on explosives, I am leaning towards an under the bridge explosion's at this stage.

I have seen some movie clips claiming that just before the explosion you can see a boat of some type under the span. Not sure how you would get a boatunder the bridge given security, but if the RU air defense is any indication, we will now be seeing a "WHERE WATER DEFENSE ?" meme.

 

[OPSSG]

Part 3 of 3: The meat grinder welcomes more meat

8. Alternatively, NYT suggests it is a truck bomb based on citing an anonymous Ukrainian official — which I will treat as unconfirmed, at this time — which is the position the Russians are taking.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578809144181915651

9. This WSJ source says it is not a truck bomb but prepared demolition.

 

[Feanor]

Happy Birthday — Mr Putin


1. Superior intelligence enabled the attack — the Crimean bridge attack destroys a key component of Russia's war infrastructure to sustain its invasion of Ukraine.

2. But this does not mean that Russia can't do without the Crimean bridge, but it's a significant loss.

Is there any evidence the bridge is destroyed?

Here's a train running on it after the attack.

Colonelcassad

Первый пассажирский железнодорожный состав прошел по Крымскому мосту. Видео: https://t.me/crimeainform

t.me

Here's car traffic on the bridge.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

And here's repair work, already started.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

3. The bridge is an escape route out of Crimea for its estimated 2 million residents. There will be a renewed desire to leave Crimea — this will trigger another wave of people leaving for Russia.

​

(a) Those in Crimea who are in cahoots with the Russians will evacuate their families and pack light, to ensure that when the time comes, a bag and some essentials are all they need.​

​

(b) These Ukrainian criminals, who have betrayed their country (for rewards offered by the Russian intelligence services), will increasingly face the same worries as former ANA troops still in Afghanistan — these Ukrainians in cahoots with the Russians will face at least jail time for betraying their country (and that would be a lucky outcome for them)​

​

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1578637678764904448

(c) Looking at the above video, internal security in occupied territories will be a problem for Russia, as there will be more and more car bombs going off in Crimea, as well as increased partisan attacks in all Russian occupied areas — the Russians are caught torturing Ukrainians, so I don’t think Ukrainian partisans are in a forgiving mood.​

​

What does it say if Crimea's 2 million residents need an escape route when Ukraine's troops approach? And are they criminals if they did not consider Ukraine to be their country to begin with? Please remember, Crimea is not the Donbass or Zaporozhye. It's a region that has a Russian majority population, a region that has tried to leave Ukraine before (in the 90's) and a region that was administratively reassigned to the Ukrainian SSR under Khruschev.

4. Putin has cornered himself, by conducting a sham referenda, and repeatedly brandishing nuclear weapons — the bluff has been called. It’s is a dangerous moment for the world as China is facing tech. access economic warfare by the Americans concurrently.

He cornered himself by starting this war. Everything else is just more of the same. It was fairly obvious from the start that no real negotiations are possible. The positions of the sides are effectively irreconcilable and remain so. In my opinion the annexation in question is more meaningful for Russia internally then externally.

4. I am not into conspiracy theories but I am not stopping others from doing so. Russian misinformation — creates a lot of noise — the Russians are now after implausible deniability over the destruction of Nord Stream 1 and 2 gas pipelines.

Is there any evidence that Russia performed these attacks? Is there something I missed? Or are you simply assuming guilt by circumstance?

 

[ngatimozart]

Is there any evidence the bridge is destroyed?

Here's a train running on it after the attack.

Colonelcassad

Первый пассажирский железнодорожный состав прошел по Крымскому мосту. Видео: https://t.me/crimeainform

t.me

Here's car traffic on the bridge.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

And here's repair work, already started.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

The bridge isn't destroyed per se. However I doubt the validity of the video of the train running across the bridge after the attack. There's nothing to show evidence supporting the claim. The roadbed is new but that work could've been done anytime.

The real question is what type of fuel was in the three burning tank cars? If it was fuel oil then its burning temperature ranges from 500°C - 1,500°C which definitely puts it well above the 300°C upper limit of the rebar concrete structural integrity that @vikingatespam spoke about in his post above. Given that the fire burnt for a while, there would have been sufficient time for the rebar concrete internal temperature to have increased, but and this is important, did it have enough time to get the internal temperature above the magic 300°C mark.

There was a wind blowing at the time and that would have dissipated some of the heat energy. The next question is, would've the military, security, and political leadership allowed time for a proper engineering structural analysis to be completed or did they just order a once over, very quick Mk 1 eyeball assessment? If the rail span isn't structurally sound then at some stage it will self destruct because of the stresses induced by train traffic. The car traffic, no problem because that particular road span wasn't blown. A mistake by the Ukrainians.

 

[vikingatespam]

The bridge isn't destroyed per se. However I doubt the validity of the video of the train running across the bridge after the attack. There's nothing to show evidence supporting the claim. The roadbed is new but that work could've been done anytime. The real question is what type of fuel was in the three burning tank cars? If it was fuel oil then its burning temperature ranges from 500°C - 1,500°C which definitely puts it well above the 300°C
upper limit of the rebar concrete structural integrity that @vikingatespam spoke about in his post above. Given that the fire burnt for a while, there would have been sufficient time for the rebar concrete internal temperature to have increased, but and this is important, did it have enough time to get the internal temperature above the magic 300°C mark. There was a wind blowing at the time and that would have dissipated some of the heat energy. The next question is, would've the military, security, and political leadership allowed time for a proper engineering structural analysis to be completed or did they just order a once over, very quick Mk 1 eyeball assessment? If the rail span isn't structurally sound then at some stage it will self destruct because of the stresses induced by train traffic. The car traffic, no problem because that particular road span wasn't blown. A mistake by the Ukrainians.

The fact that something got through amazes me. Still not sure what.

With regards to the rail bridge, under normal circumstances, it would be Do Not Operate until a lengthy battery of tests are performed. It might be ok. Or, the next time a train full of UXO drives over it, the span fails and now you dont have any bridge.

I would not want to go over the bridge right now.

 

[seaspear]

I understood the Crimean bridge to have two tracks ,perhaps just one is out of commission
Crimean Bridge - Wikipedia

 

[King Wally]

I understood the Crimean bridge to have two tracks ,perhaps just one is out of commission
Crimean Bridge - Wikipedia

Yes, looks like two rail lines adjacent each other. May be similar situation to the road way where one is less damaged than the other. Regardless the disruption effects will remain real, given this is a bottleneck any damage or partial closure will still have real effects.

 

[Todjaeger]

The bridge isn't destroyed per se. However I doubt the validity of the video of the train running across the bridge after the attack. There's nothing to show evidence supporting the claim. The roadbed is new but that work could've been done anytime. The real question is what type of fuel was in the three burning tank cars? If it was fuel oil then its burning temperature ranges from 500°C - 1,500°C which definitely puts it well above the 300°C
upper limit of the rebar concrete structural integrity that @vikingatespam spoke about in his post above. Given that the fire burnt for a while, there would have been sufficient time for the rebar concrete internal temperature to have increased, but and this is important, did it have enough time to get the internal temperature above the magic 300°C mark. There was a wind blowing at the time and that would have dissipated some of the heat energy. The next question is, would've the military, security, and political leadership allowed time for a proper engineering structural analysis to be completed or did they just order a once over, very quick Mk 1 eyeball assessment? If the rail span isn't structurally sound then at some stage it will self destruct because of the stresses induced by train traffic. The car traffic, no problem because that particular road span wasn't blown. A mistake by the Ukrainians.

This actually touches on the physics (vs. chemistry) of fire. In cases like this, the "burning temperature" is not particularly accurate or useful data, because it gets very misleading. A prime example of the (ir)relevance of the data misleading people would be the sheer number of people who continue to believe that burning jet fuel could not have brought down the Twin Towers in NYC on 9/11 because the burning temperature of jet fuel would not have been high enough to exceed the rated strength for the structural members.

What all this is doing is overlooking the actual processes which are occurring. As a side note, burning fuel oil on a bridge surface can absolutely compromise the structural integrity of a bridge, as can be read in this story here, along with some pictures. Unfortunately I could not find some of the pictures taken during/after the damage assessment which were from close up and on the avenue which the interstate bridge crossed. I remember seeing the bridge have a very visible sag of a few feet, a few days after the fire but before replacement of the damaged bridge. At max, 12,000 gal. of fuel oil combusted causing the damage.

Now, back to the physics of fire. One has to remember that combustion is an exothermic reaction which releases thermal energy as part of the reaction. with the amount of energy released being a function of both the materials in the reaction (the fuel and oxygen) and the quantity of materials actually involved in the reaction. An easy explanation and example of this would be to compare a standard wood fire, which would likely be around 600 degrees C vs. a forest fire which can reach temperatures around 1,100 degrees C. The fuel is basically the same between a wood fire and a forest fire, with the major difference being the size or quantity of fuel involved. In a case involving a large quantity of something like fuel oil, each kg of fuel oil which combusts is going to release into the immediate environment a certain amount of thermal energy, some of which will then be dispersed and dissipate via breezes, etc. However, when larges amount of fuel are combusting in a comparatively small area, the thermal energy present in immediate area will increase significantly faster than would normally be able to dissipate. Under these circumstances, it is very possible to get thermometer readings well above what the "normal burning temperature" of a particular material is. In the case of burning tanker cars on a train, each one could easily have over 100k L of fuel which would dump an enormous amount of thermal energy in a fairly small space over a fairly short period of time, much more than a breeze could disperse.

 

[Exonian]

Yes, looks like two rail lines adjacent each other. May be similar situation to the road way where one is less damaged than the other. Regardless the disruption effects will remain real, given this is a bottleneck any damage or partial closure will still have real effects.
View attachment 49719

Railways is my area of expertise, I had a 30 year career, mostly on the freight department of British Rail, though I am no signalling expert.

I know that in wartime repairs can be carried out, and train services restarted, much quicker than in peacetime.

It would seem possible that the 'undamaged' track might be brought back into use more quickly, however single line working would mean a much less frequent service is possible. However without knowing how the line is signalled there might be more problems running a regular frequency service, especially if the signalling system relies on electrical cable carried across the bridge deck - this would likely be seriously damaged.

 

[vonnoobie]

Railways is my area of expertise, I had a 30 year career, mostly on the freight department of British Rail, though I am no signalling expert.

I know that in wartime repairs can be carried out, and train services restarted, much quicker than in peacetime.

It would seem possible that the 'undamaged' track might be brought back into use more quickly, however single line working would mean a much less frequent service is possible. However without knowing how the line is signalled there might be more problems running a regular frequency service, especially if the signalling system relies on electrical cable carried across the bridge deck - this would likely be seriously damaged.

Nice to know we have the closest thing to an expert in the group on this though will require more info for you to give a firm position on it.

That all being said as it is it will either cause a minor impact or a major impact, at the moment we just dont have the details to know and unlikely to actually get them seeing it appears no in depth work was undertaken to see if all is good. Just going to be a time will tell so may be best we apply a watch and wait approach to this matter until such information is gained either from the bridge structure or limitations on traffic or worst/best case depending on your standing the complete failure in it.