The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Feanor]

There were questions being asked earlier in this thread about how Russia could possibly escalate. Here's one answer. Russia has disconnected the Zaporozhskaya NPP from Ukraine's power grid and has begun systematically hitting power plants. Power outages are being reported in Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, and Poltava. In Kharkov the subway stopped running. The ZNPP was responsible for ~20% of Ukraine's power output. Even if all other NPPs are off limits to strikes, destroying the rest of the power plants will make it impossible for Ukraine to supply power on internal resources. And it's always possible to hit not the NPP but surrounding infrastructure for power distribution to isolate them as energy sources.

Colonelcassad

Многие вещи были бы проще, если бы это делалось с первых дней СВО.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Зарево после российских ударов в Харьковской области. По данным местных источников, была поражена теплоэлектростанция в Змиеве. Также прилеты были зафиксированы на Харьковской ТЭЦ-5, являющейся одной из крупнейшей теплоэлектроцентралей Украины. @rybar

t.me

Colonelcassad

После циничного самообстрела горит Кременчугская ТЭЦ.

t.me

Рыбарь

Другие кадры крупного пожара на одном из пораженных энергетических объектов Харьковской области. По словам жителей, зарево видно за километры от горящего объекта. #Россия #Украина #Харьков @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

Colonelcassad

Последствия прилетов.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Харьковское метро остановилось.

t.me

Украина.ру

You can view and join @ukraina_ru right away.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Прилеты по Днепропетровску.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Прилет по ТЭЦ-5 в Харькове.

t.me

Colonelcassad

Ракеты идут на Харьков.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

EDIT: More. reportedly Odessa region has lost power too.

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vk.com

The strike on Kharkov's TETs-5, a huge power plant.

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vk.com

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vk.com

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vk.com

There are reports of disruption of rial traffic to Sumy, Poltava, and Kharkov. Other locations are likely to follow.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

The strike in Dnepropetrovsk.

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Reportedly the trolleybus fires in Poltava are also related to powergrid issues.

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vk.com

 

[Ananda]

There were questions being asked earlier in this thread about how Russia could possibly escalate. Here's one answer. Russia has disconnected the Zaporozhskaya NPP from Ukraine's power grid and has begun systematically hitting power plants

Quite amusing that NY Times comment today it is the Ukrainian that shut down Zaparozhskaya NPP electricity from the grid. As if Ukrainian is in control of that NPP.

This latest development is in my opinion is the biggest advance that Ukrainian has during this war. Even the progress in Kyiv and Sumy fronts coming due to Russian strategic 'withdrawal' not battlefield defeat as like this one. Still saying that Russian is collapsing on other fronts is far from reality at this moment. As in Kherson front the Ukrainian still not achieving what they are aiming.

It is all back to how much Russia want to commit more resources now. They're getting wiped on Kharkiv-Izium fronts is no denying in here, even from Pro Russian online telegrams. How Russian react and escalate after this going to be the question.

 

[oldsig127]

This latest development is in my opinion is the biggest advance that Ukrainian has during this war. Even the progress in Kyiv and Sumy fronts coming due to Russian strategic 'withdrawal' not battlefield defeat as like this one. Still saying that Russian is collapsing on other fronts is far from reality at this moment. As in Kherson front the Ukrainian still not achieving what they are aiming.

Yes, we get it. Ukrainian reverses are defeats. Russian reverses are withdrawals.

According to "some analysts" no doubt, though we never hear how many are *some* nor get any background for any of them.

Your lack of balance is clear compared with Feanor and Sturm for example who can acknowledge that there is nonsense reported by BOTH sides without references to anonymous financial? experts


oldsig

 

[Ananda]

Yes, we get it. Ukrainian reverses are defeats. Russian reverses are withdrawals.

I clearly say this Kharkiv-Izium is the defeat of Russian, do you get 'wiped' means ? However previous Kyiv and Sumy situation is clearly Russian taking strategic reverse, not due to defeat on battle field.

I just stated what happened in ground. Defeat is defeat, reverse is reverses. Yes Russian reverses in Sumy and Kviv because they're bogged down there, however not because they got wiped as in Kharkiv-Izium fronts.

Read carefully before accusing someone.

 

[OPSSG]

Post 2 of 5: Ukrainian successes in Kharkiv Oblast & attempts to advance elsewhere

Post 5 of 5: Yes we can
...
29. Now wider confirmation from Russian sources that they have quickly withdrawn from Izyum and possibly Lyman too. But the other two parts of the picture of this offensive are, as follows:

One, the speed of advance.

Two, the failure of Russian intelligence (to detect the Ukrainian build up of forces in Kharkiv Oblast).

Even an Ukrainian official says he can’t keep up…

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569021391504039938

6. Given the scale of the Ukrainian attack and the depth of the advance (which is beyond my wildest imagination compared to my prior series of 5 posts), there will be no more frozen conflicts and off-ramp ceasefires to avoid humiliating Putin in 2022. Ukraine’s western allies not yet in the Russian withdrawal” camp, as a starting point for negotiations, may need a rethink.

​

(a) Ukraine as a country must grind the Russian Army to an involuntary stop before real negotiations can begin — the UA’s ABGs are routing Russian forces and collapsing Russia’s northern Donbas axis.​

​

(b) This raises 2 further points. One, Russian forces are not conducting a controlled withdrawal. Two, Russian intelligence’s failure to take into account the most dangerous course of action their enemy can take.​

​

(c) Izyum is back under Ukrainian control. Its operational significance has long pinned significant Ukrainian forces to the defense of Slovyansk to its south. Izyum's liberation allows those defenders to join the offensive, reinforcing it and allowing it to keep going.​

​

(d) Ukrainian ABGs also liberated Vovchansk, northeast of Kharkiv. Vovchansk lies on one of the lines of communication from the Russian military hub of Belgorod into northeastern Ukraine very close to the Russian border.​

If I was Ukrainian, I'd be worrying about the flanks. Maybe the Russians are too disorganised to do anything, maybe not.

But the Ukrainian command's probably well ahead of me in thinking about such things.

7. Soon, there will be a need for the Ukrainian Army to pause operations to avoid out-running their own logistics (or as war planners would call it — line of communications).

​

(a) The rapid Ukrainian successes have significant implications for Russia’s overall operational design. The majority of the force in Ukraine is highly likely being forced to prioritise emergency defensive actions — UA digging in at Vovchansk can preclude Russian efforts to retake the areas they are losing.​

​

(b) I believe that this is the best time for Ukraine to commit all their reserves and take a little risk — their intelligence on the scale and speed of Russian counter-offensive forces charging in to establish a new line of defence is rock solid — a risk worth taking.​

Could be that Ukraine was legitimately pushing in both areas and the Russians just managed their forces poorly, but worth thinking about. Certainly Ukraine appears to be playing their hand well at the moment.

8. That is the correct read of the situation. War planners do not want to waste lives that must be lost to gain ground. While the Russian Army was by fighting in the south, Ukraine launched a pre-planned operations in the north. The south was not a feint.

Purely speculation on my part, but I wonder if the push on Kherson was designed in part to suck in Russian reinforcements, leaving eastern Ukraine open for the sort of offensive we're seeing.

9. The north and south are mutually supporting offensives in a larger Ukrainian operational design.

 

[vonnoobie]

Quite amusing that NY Times comment today it is the Ukrainian that shut down Zaparozhskaya NPP electricity from the grid. As if Ukrainian is in control of that NPP.

This latest development is in my opinion is the biggest advance that Ukrainian has during this war. Even the progress in Kyiv and Sumy fronts coming due to Russian strategic 'withdrawal' not battlefield defeat as like this one. Still saying that Russian is collapsing on other fronts is far from reality at this moment. As in Kherson front the Ukrainian still not achieving what they are aiming.

It is all back to how much Russia want to commit more resources now. They're getting wiped on Kharkiv-Izium fronts is no denying in here, even from Pro Russian online telegrams. How Russian react and escalate after this going to be the question.

I would be cautious saying they aren't achieving their aims in Kherson. Undoubtedly it's not going very fast but UKR command did state from the start this particular operation would be a slow one. Ground advance might be stopped for now but they are slowly picking apart the Russian munitions stockpiles, command and control and even the air support. The Russian resistance at Kherson will only last as long as the supplies hold out, if or when they are gone the front will collapse as fast as the Kharkiv-Izium front.

 

[alexsa]

I would be cautious saying they aren't achieving their aims in Kherson. Undoubtedly it's not going very fast but UKR command did state from the start this particular operation would be a slow one. Ground advance might be stopped for now but they are slowly picking apart the Russian munitions stockpiles, command and control and even the air support. The Russian resistance at Kherson will only last as long as the supplies hold out, if or when they are gone the front will collapse as fast as the Kharkiv-Izium front.

I tend to agree. It is just my humble opinion, but with supplies restricted why expend too many lives when you can continue to choke supplies and your targets supply lines are all within artillery coverage. Its just my humble opinion, but unless supplies can be bought into that pocket will will get increasdly difficult for those forces (and sadly ... the civilian population).

Happy to be corrected.

 

[Ananda]

would be cautious saying they aren't achieving their aims in Kherson.

That's why I said on one of my previous posts everything is in fluids now. Yes they can try to do what they are doing in Kharkiv-Izium. However they have not achieve that stage yet. It can change toward their direction, however still also can change toward Russian.

However this is just my opinion, that I do sense Russian have stronger resiliences in that southern front because they have stronger motives to safe guard Crimea. Again this is only my opinion, and have to be seens how this is goingbto translate on how much reserve the Russian going to pour on that front.

Same thing to say that it is too early to say Ukranian can not replicate what they done in Kharkiv-Izium front. It is also too early to say Russian line is collapsing everywhere. Ukraine gain momentum in one front, but again not guarantee they can do on other front yet. Just my two cents.

 

[Vivendi]

We keep hearing about the corruption angle and there is no doubt it had an impact.

The question that comes to mind however is if the Russians had not acted on highly flawed assumptions [the Ukrainians collapsing and the Russians being welcomed as liberators] and actually prepared [the right force structure; adequate number of troops and sound logistics] for an invasion of this scale/magnitude in the 2nd largest country in Europe [one with a large army and large pool of manpower to call on] and had spent the past few years preparing for a high intensity protracted war rather than the types encountered in Syria, Georgia, Chechnya and the Donbas; would corruption have still been a major impediment?

A large number of people have been going on and on about how Russia considers NATO (and Ukraine!) a threat, also after the end of the cold war. It seems very odd then that they have not prepared for such a fight... Either they prepared for a fight with other countries and failed miserably at it, or they did not prepare for a high intensity fight, which means that the claim that Russia considered NATO (which is a 30-country organization of mainly democratic countries) was never correct and that Russia did understand that countries like Germany, Luxembourg, Norway and Italy would never agree to launching and unprovoked war of aggression against nuclear armed Russia...

 

[pussertas]

Agreed

 

[Vivendi]

Lost ? The southern offensive in Kherson is stalling right now. The Russian still making progress around Donbas Bakhmut front. The only offensive that Ukranian now take the initiative is that around Kharkiv-Izium front. Off course by that the West already Glee saying Russian collapsing.

This war still fluids and everything depends on reserves that still can be committed by both sides. Still fell free saying that everything collapsing for Russian based only on that front, forgetting how the much glorified Kherson offensive is appearing to be stalling.

Sorry I was sloppy with my grammar. Russia will lose and will eventually pull out of Ukraine. Those very few that got this war right from the very beginning include Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling (https://twitter.com/MarkHertling) and General Ben Hodges (https://twitter.com/general_ben)

This has been posted before but I suggest you re-read what Mark Hertling wrote back in April, about the differences he has observed of the two armies: I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here's What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.

However, what is even more significant is the astute observation of Gen. Hodges: If you focus on the most basic then there are two things that determine the outcome of a war, any war: will and logistics.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1564126924288540672

and

Consider Taliban. Very few predicted 20 years ago that the US would (in spite of their military superiority and huge resources) would in the end pull out and let Taliban take over. The reason is the same reason why Ukraine will kick Russia out: Taliban managed to maintain their will to win over 20 years, whereas the US' will to stay and pour money into a seemingly never-ending pit was dwindling year by year.

I have no idea if Russia will withdraw from Ukraine in 2 months, 2 years, or 20 years. However, make no mistake: Russia cannot win this war. They lack the strong will of Ukrainians.

Gen. Hodges also believes Ukraine will be able to retake Crimea. He may be right. When Ukrainians bombed a few ammo and fuel depots in Crimea how did the Russians react? They all lined up, not to sign up as soldiers to "defend Crimea", but to get out of there as soon as possible: Russians are realising Crimea is ‘not a place for them’, says Zelenskiy

 

[Atunga]

I would be cautious saying they aren't achieving their aims in Kherson. Undoubtedly it's not going very fast but UKR command did state from the start this particular operation would be a slow one. Ground advance might be stopped for now but they are slowly picking apart the Russian munitions stockpiles, command and control and even the air support. The Russian resistance at Kherson will only last as long as the supplies hold out, if or when they are gone the front will collapse as fast as the Kharkiv-Izium front.

I hope Ukraine know exactly what they are doing because this whole taking back territory thing could be tricky, if the Russians bounce back and cut off them off from the rear, we are talking about hundreds of POWs

 

[Atunga]

A large number of people have been going on and on about how Russia considers NATO (and Ukraine!) a threat, also after the end of the cold war. It seems very odd then that they have not prepared for such a fight... Either they prepared for a fight with other countries and failed miserably at it, or they did not prepare for a high intensity fight, which means that the claim that Russia considered NATO (which is a 30-country organization of mainly democratic countries) was never correct and that Russia did understand that countries like Germany, Luxembourg, Norway and Italy would never agree to launching and unprovoked war of aggression against nuclear armed Russia...

It’s clear to see that NATO is a threat to Russia, I mean Ukraine is not yet a member and Russians are already dying.. why does Ukraine need to join NATO so badly? The Russians will be asking that question

 

[Vivendi]

There were questions being asked earlier in this thread about how Russia could possibly escalate. Here's one answer. Russia has disconnected the Zaporozhskaya NPP from Ukraine's power grid and has begun systematically hitting power plants. Power outages are being reported in Kharkov, Dnepropetrovsk, and Poltava. In Kharkov the subway stopped running. The ZNPP was responsible for ~20% of Ukraine's power output. Even if all other NPPs are off limits to strikes, destroying the rest of the power plants will make it impossible for Ukraine to supply power on internal resources. And it's always possible to hit not the NPP but surrounding infrastructure for power distribution to isolate them as energy sources.

Ukraine already gave their response to this, and other atrocities performed by Russia:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569044030272454663

The quicker Russia realize that they can never win this war, and pulls out, the better. Russia simply cannot win this war.

And don't even think about going to "tactical nuclear" -- NATO will then bomb Russia out of Ukraine (including Crimea) in less than a week. Those F-35s will be ready to take off on fairly short notice.

 

[Feanor]

I hope Ukraine know exactly what they are doing because this whole taking back territory thing could be tricky, if the Russians bounce back and cut off them off from the rear, we are talking about hundreds of POWs

Hundreds of POWs are not that big of a deal for Ukraine. Ukraine has lost thousands of POWs already. In principle manpower losses are one thing Ukraine can afford, and hundreds are not a catastrophic or even particularly problematic quantity.

 

[STURM]

A large number of people have been going on and on about how Russia considers NATO (and Ukraine!) a threat, also after the end of the cold war. It seems very odd then that they have not prepared for such a fight... .

Russia did see NATO as a threat and it did make certain preparations but planners actually foreseeing the possibility that Putin would call upon the army to undertake a large scale strategic invasion of this magnitude is a different matter. From what we now know of the Russian army and its modernisation the past decade or so; it was not structured for such a protracted widescale high intensity fight.

 

[Feanor]

Ukraine already gave their response to this, and other atrocities performed by Russia:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569044030272454663

The quicker Russia realize that they can never win this war, and pulls out, the better. Russia simply cannot win this war.

And don't even think about going to "tactical nuclear" -- NATO will then bomb Russia out of Ukraine (including Crimea) in less than a week. Those F-35s will be ready to take off on fairly short notice.

This is mostly because Russia still isn't fighting a war. Russia is still trying to run a limited military operation, without mobilization, without even committing drafted soldiers to the fight. And given Putin's relatively limited support at home it's quite plausible that Russian leadership will not commit to the war effort.

However... Ukraine also has a breaking point. There is a number, a body count, after which Ukraine's willingness to fight will begin to recede. It's an open question as to how high that number is, and whether Russia can reach it. Russia can't literally deplete Ukraine' mobilization pool. But I don't think the strength of Ukraine as a society is such as to push to that point.

 

[Atunga]

Ukraine already gave their response to this, and other atrocities performed by Russia:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1569044030272454663

The quicker Russia realize that they can never win this war, and pulls out, the better. Russia simply cannot win this war.

And don't even think about going to "tactical nuclear" -- NATO will then bomb Russia out of Ukraine (including Crimea) in less than a week. Those F-35s will be ready to take off on fairly short notice.

Putin compares himself to Peter the Great in quest to take back Russian lands | Vladimir Putin | The Guardian

President draws parallel with tsar who waged war on Sweden and says campaign in Ukraine stems from ‘basic values’

amp.theguardian.com

Putin is ready for a very long war, the Russians know exactly what they dealing with and as you can see, they are ready to burn resources, both human and material

 

[Feanor]

Putin compares himself to Peter the Great in quest to take back Russian lands | Vladimir Putin | The Guardian

President draws parallel with tsar who waged war on Sweden and says campaign in Ukraine stems from ‘basic values’

amp.theguardian.com

Putin is ready for a very long war, the Russians know exactly what they dealing with and as you can see, they are ready to burn resources, both human and material

If Russian leadership knew what they were dealing with, they wouldn't face massive reverses like these. And Russia is quite unwilling to burn human resources, hence the withdrawal rather then a bloody frontal battle. Russia is actually quite limited on manpower, and this shows.

 

[vonnoobie]

I hope Ukraine know exactly what they are doing because this whole taking back territory thing could be tricky, if the Russians bounce back and cut off them off from the rear, we are talking about hundreds of POWs

That is a company to battalion sized formation. If Ukraine ever gets to point those numbers hurt then they gave already lost the conventional battle.

That said where exactly will Russia cut them off from, Russian forces haven't exactly shown the ability to strike deep and fast, especially when up against opposition. They also largely tend to stick to main roads and rail lines for GLOC's.

They will have to assault quite a distance in a way they just aren't trained or organised to do. Perhaps something localised for a small unit but on a scale to hurt Ukraine VERY long odds.