Royal New Zealand Air Force

[Gibbo]

I have heard rumours but that is all. It would be interesting to see what ACT & the National Party have to say about it this time next year with the election due. They'll be either in or close to campaign mode then.

I know we're in a very different paradigm now but I just don't see it happening... only got my gut-feel to go on but boy my gut is on point after the bloody awesome curry I just made the whanau for dinner!

The sheer cost & more importantly the upskilling & tooling up in both air crew & ground crew is absolutely massive... and will take years! Surely priority is likely to be some form of EMAC project & additional transport (eg: earlier B757 replacement with 3 airframes), along with more $$$ more for some form of naval asset(s).

Having said that I'm not saying we shouldn't but it'll likely be a modest niche at best. Until recently I would've suggested half a dozen fast-jet reconn / EW based on a platform like the RAAF Growler with all training post T6C outsourced to Oz. Quality over quantity!

 

[Gooey]

Agreed Gibbo.
It'd be a massive overreach for RNZAF at the moment.
Concentrate on additional capability through more P-8A (weapons), a real helicopter force of 30 UH/SH cabs with weapons, and C-130J (MC-130J). Decent numbers of EMAC twins and for the Pacific a STOL type acft. These will build up basic capability of the RNZAF and actually add some resilience.
Stuff the 757 replacement, if we can't have ACF we can do without this non-priority niche too. Thats a politicians fun bus and adds to the strain of a tiny air force.
Eventually, I'd suggest F-35B vice F-18G for Pacific Island and RAN LHD ops.

 

[ngatimozart]

I know we're in a very different paradigm now but I just don't see it happening... only got my gut-feel to go on but boy my gut is on point after the bloody awesome curry I just made the whanau for dinner!

Love a good curry, but unfortunately my stomach won't let me eat them anymore.

The sheer cost & more importantly the upskilling & tooling up in both air crew & ground crew is absolutely massive... and will take years! Surely priority is likely to be some form of EMAC project & additional transport (eg: earlier B757 replacement with 3 airframes), along with more $$$ more for some form of naval asset(s).

WRT EMAC, the USN contracted GA to have a MQ-9B SeaGuardian at RIMPAC 2022 so hopefully NZDF got to have a good look at its capabilities. I would really like to see the B757 replaced by 3 A330MRTT & 3 KHI C-2 plus 2 more C-130J-30.

Having said that I'm not saying we shouldn't but it'll likely be a modest niche at best. Until recently I would've suggested half a dozen fast-jet reconn / EW based on a platform like the RAAF Growler with all training post T6C outsourced to Oz. Quality over quantity!

No not the Growlers because the F-35 can do most of that now. We are a maritime nation so we'd be far better concentrating on fast jet maritime strike, so we basically want a fast jet with long legs and a good weapons loadout, which rule the F-18 series out. And we require quantity because we will take combat losses. Quality is great, but it's of little use if you have a very limited number of platforms, and you are losing irreplaceable platforms due to combat losses. The Ukraine war is teaching lessons such as that, lessons which we learned the hard way during WW2 and promptly forgot in 1946. I would be very tempted to start with the KAI TA-50, then look at a full blown fast jet strike aircraft whilst that capability is being bedded in. The FA-50 is have the KEPD 350 Taurus AGM integrated, which is of similar weight to the LRASM and has the same size warhead. It could be something that maybe worthwhile paying to have integrated.

 

[Gooey]

The Growler has its place and assists with F35 survival. But yes as you say Nga, the operational flex of JSF in a modern environment is literally the only high end answer.
Its interesting that Poland are fleshing out their FJ numbers with FA-50. Sort of a high-med-low mix with F35-F16-FA50. As a starter for ten, to get experience, help recruitment, and the RNZAF used to being a Force again as opposed to the armed wing of Air NZ, it would be a great move.

 

[ngatimozart]

Agreed Gibbo.
It'd be a massive overreach for RNZAF at the moment.
Concentrate on additional capability through more P-8A (weapons), a real helicopter force of 30 UH/SH cabs with weapons, and C-130J (MC-130J). Decent numbers of EMAC twins and for the Pacific a STOL type acft. These will build up basic capability of the RNZAF and actually add some resilience.
Stuff the 757 replacement, if we can't have ACF we can do without this non-priority niche too. Thats a politicians fun bus and adds to the strain of a tiny air force.
Eventually, I'd suggest F-35B vice F-18G for Pacific Island and RAN LHD ops.

You know that we have a ban on posting about operating fast jets off RAN flat decks. Don't do it again or you automatically earn a 7 day ban.

Why would NZDF acquire UH/MH-60s which are older technology than the NH90s? Secondly if we did we'd be locked into old technology for a further 30 - 50 years like Australia when new fling wing technology will be available well before then. If the Americans don't build it the Europeans will. Just because the Australian Army decides to go back to the Blackhawk doesn't mean we have to. The Aussie Army hasn't exactly covered itself in glory with both its MRH90 and Tiger procurements. Nor has the RAN covered itself in glory with its fling wing procurements either. The SH-2G(A) Seasprite saga comes to mind and that was a RAN FUBAR from start to finish despite what the ANAO report claimed. Just because the Australian mafia crap all over the NH90 and Tiger doesn't mean that we have to ditch it. We have a 72% serviceability rate with the NH90 and faced the same problems as the Australians have. So don't come on here with that Aussie crap telling us what platforms we should have and what we should not have, especially when you can't even get those exact same platforms to work properly.

 

[ngatimozart]

The Growler has its place and assists with F35 survival. But yes as you say Nga, the operational flex of JSF in a modern environment is literally the only high end answer.
Its interesting that Poland are fleshing out their FJ numbers with FA-50. Sort of a high-med-low mix with F35-F16-FA50. As a starter for ten, to get experience, help recruitment, and the RNZAF used to being a Force again as opposed to the armed wing of Air NZ, it would be a great move.

The Poles apparently are also interested in the KF-21 and that's an aircraft worth keeping a close eye on.

 

[John Fedup]

In the unlikely event NZ wanted fast jets with maritime capability, either the F-35B with the USMC off US America class ships or the F-35C off USN carriers. Land based, F-35A or F-35C which offer better range. Not sure what level of geopolitical deterioration would be required to motivate a fast jet restoration for NZ.

 

[John Fedup]

The Poles apparently are also interested in the KF-21 and that's an aircraft worth keeping a close eye on.

Depends on the eventual price. As a 4.5 gen jet its price may be too close to a F-35A. This wouldn’t be an issue for a partner nation wishing for industrial benefits and involvement in more advanced future projects.

 

[ngatimozart]

In the unlikely event NZ wanted fast jets with maritime capability, either the F-35B with the USMC off US America class ships or the F-35C off USN carriers. Land based, F-35A or F-35C which offer better range. Not sure what level of geopolitical deterioration would be required to motivate a fast jet restoration for NZ.

We're have a super secret plan to invade Canada and teach them to speak the proper Queens English.

 

[John Fedup]

We're have a super secret plan to invade Canada and teach them to speak the proper Queens English.

OT…Well at least we can still spell a few words correctly, colour instead of color but unfortunately many media outlets simply paste American deviations. Over the years I have noticed a gradual shift towards America spelling here. When ER2 passes, Canada will likely end up with a politically appointed President head of state. You can just imagine the POS that somebody like junior will appoint!

 

[Gooey]

Apologies. If I had known (okay remembered) I wouldn't have.

B/c the 90 is an expensive toy, does not do UH assault or SH or SF. Operationally. How has RNZAF got around the plastic floor, zero weapons coverage during debus/enbus, and flight hour costs?
If you want a big lift capability, buy Chinooks/rely on Oz Army/US.
If you want a combat capable force for UH and SH and SF, get rid of the 90's and buy a relevant number of relevant cabs.
I said before, the C130J is 'old' but operationally very capable with new tech. Same for the 60's.
As an example, SH-60R would straight away increase RNZN surface and sub-surface (sorry, PM Clark said you don't do that any more do you) combat capability. Same for UH-60M and MH-60M.

As an aside, as a proud Aussie/Brit/Kiwi I feel the need sometimes to pull-in my home countries chip-on-the-shoulder, small minded approach to defence. At 72% the force capability of the entire NZDF helicopter force is what 2 gusting 3 cabs plus whatever 'risk management' is acceptable for home/SF/training/hanger queens? Hardly a platform for NZ world advice.

The Ozi Tiger, 90, and Sea Sprite, shambles is of course just that. Partly, in my mind due to Army ripping helicopters from RAAF when they should have been concentrating on their little tanks/APC things.

Back to ACF. F-35B because for the Pacific, STOL type ops from small runways (NOT floating ones, in any way or form, obviously) with MC-130J AAR would be a real niche capability to contribute to our Allies and friends.

 

[Rob c]

.


Back to ACF. F-35B because for the Pacific, STOL type ops from small runways (NOT floating ones, in any way or form, obviously) with MC-130J AAR would be a real niche capability to contribute to our Allies and friends.

If we did restart the ACF any thoughts of a modern, new aircraft would be at least 10 years into the future. It would take at least that amount of time before we could even operate them effectively and to be on top of our game you would be looking at 15 years. I think you would start with an armed training aircraft or leased second hand aircraft with contracted or borrowed instructors from other air forces, nothing flash or expensive is needed until we have learned to walk for a starter. The first priority would be to rebuild an effective force structure in your personnel, with building necessary high quality leadership and training abilities. I would think something like the F35 would be 15 years away.

 

[Redlands18]

If we did restart the ACF any thoughts of a modern, new aircraft would be at least 10 years into the future. It would take at least that amount of time before we could even operate them effectively and to be on top of our game you would be looking at 15 years. I think you would start with an armed training aircraft or leased second hand aircraft with contracted or borrowed instructors from other air forces, nothing flash or expensive is needed until we have learned to walk for a starter. The first priority would be to rebuild an effective force structure in your personnel, with building necessary high quality leadership and training abilities. I would think something like the F35 would be 15 years away.

The major problem with re-starting the ACF would be, what institutional knowledge is left of operating fast jets in the RNZAF? There would be very few pilots left and they would for the most part be now to old. You would have to rebuild the entire capability from scratch starting with a trg system with no fast jet qualified instructors in the RNZAF. I would actually compare NZ getting its ACF back to Australia getting SSNs, doable but a lot of work, funding and leaning on Allies would be needed.

 

[Gooey]

Rob and Red, absolutely.

The current level of professional knowledge for air power within RNZAF is, in my opinion, woeful. Nothing to do with the basic boys & girls. It’s just that air mindedness, as a kinetic war option, has been breed out. Replaced with the usual fat-kid ideas of complacency.

Increase 3, 5, 40 Sqn capacity and capability to help build numbers of personnel. Additionally, signal the new ACF with FA-50 etc shortly (3 years?) to be followed by F-35 etc later (say 5-7 years).

This will reawaken the great force that kiwi air power used too be. Help with recruiting no end, too.

 

[Todjaeger]

Rob and Red, absolutely.

The current level of professional knowledge for air power within RNZAF is, in my opinion, woeful. Nothing to do with the basic boys & girls. It’s just that air mindedness, as a kinetic war option, has been breed out. Replaced with the usual fat-kid ideas of complacency.

Increase 3, 5, 40 Sqn capacity and capability to help build numbers of personnel. Additionally, signal the new ACF with FA-50 etc shortly (3 years?) to be followed by F-35 etc later (say 5-7 years).

This will reawaken the great force that kiwi air power used too be. Help with recruiting no end, too.

Good grief, here we go again...

I do certainly get the interest in the RNZAF and NZDF getting an ACF again, I do, I really do. I also even agree with it to a degree, as a long-term goal if possible. However, there are a number of real politik factors which come into play and a series of gates which would need to be opened before any attempt to recreate (resurrection is not possible at this point) a Kiwi ACF.

Unless/until decision makers see the need for/value of an ACF, and very importantly, commit the resources required to re-establish and maintain an ACF and all that would entail, then repeatedly raising the idea has very little value as a point of discussion.

Given the current lack of standoff weapons for the P-8A Poseidons (and the apparent opposition to getting weapons for them from certain Kiwi political corners) as well as the lack of anti-shipping weapons for Kiwi warships, trying to discuss a programme which would likely take years and cost billions before delivering a capability seems rather futile IMO.

 

[Rob c]

Good grief, here we go again...

I do certainly get the interest in the RNZAF and NZDF getting an ACF again, I do, I really do. I also even agree with it to a degree, as a long-term goal if possible. However, there are a number of real politik factors which come into play and a series of gates which would need to be opened before any attempt to recreate (resurrection is not possible at this point) a Kiwi ACF.

Unless/until decision makers see the need for/value of an ACF, and very importantly, commit the resources required to re-establish and maintain an ACF and all that would entail, then repeatedly raising the idea has very little value as a point of discussion.

Given the current lack of standoff weapons for the P-8A Poseidons (and the apparent opposition to getting weapons for them from certain Kiwi political corners) as well as the lack of anti-shipping weapons for Kiwi warships, trying to discuss a programme which would likely take years and cost billions before delivering a capability seems rather futile IMO.

The Main reason that I would want to see an ACF is that it actually does provide us with a sovereign ability to defend our selves and has a better deterrent affect than anything else we could reasonably acquire. We would need a good surveillance/control ability to make it effective and reasonable stand off weapons for full effect.

Rob and Red, absolutely.

The current level of professional knowledge for air power within RNZAF is, in my opinion, woeful. Nothing to do with the basic boys & girls. It’s just that air mindedness, as a kinetic war option, has been breed out. Replaced with the usual fat-kid ideas of complacency.

Increase 3, 5, 40 Sqn capacity and capability to help build numbers of personnel. Additionally, signal the new ACF with FA-50 etc shortly (3 years?) to be followed by F-35 etc later (say 5-7 years).

The timing for the introduction of full capability aircraft would be far in excess to the above as the squadron structure would not be capable of handling them for a long time. The RNZAF itself said some years ago, that to get back to the standard that 75sqn was at would take at least 15 years. This is mainly due to the need to build up the knowledge and command structure at the sqn level.
For example, a pilot that has finished his lead-in fighter training, which takes time then does significant training on the combat type he is to qualify on including combat training, once this is completed he is then ok to be used as the number 2 in a 2 aircraft section. He will continue to gain experience and will qualify to lead a 2 aircraft section after about 4 to 5 years. After another 3-5 years he will be OK to lead a 4 aircraft flight. and years later, a sqn.
We have to start from scratch as we don't even have the people available who can select those pilots who are capable of making good combat pilots as just because someone is a proficient pilot does not mean they will make a good combat pilot.

 

[Gibbo]

Agreed Gibbo.
It'd be a massive overreach for RNZAF at the moment.
Concentrate on additional capability through more P-8A (weapons), a real helicopter force of 30 UH/SH cabs with weapons, and C-130J (MC-130J). Decent numbers of EMAC twins and for the Pacific a STOL type acft. These will build up basic capability of the RNZAF and actually add some resilience.
Stuff the 757 replacement, if we can't have ACF we can do without this non-priority niche too. Thats a politicians fun bus and adds to the strain of a tiny air force.
Eventually, I'd suggest F-35B vice F-18G for Pacific Island and RAN LHD ops.

Yep way too much $$over-reach$$$

I wish the MSM would do their homework & realise the B757 is not just a VIP taxi... they do plenty of unheralded cargo and/or 'grunt-taxi' work that never gets mentioned and they indeed do take some strain off the C-130... when a B757 is operational! I totally get that a C17 or such would offer greater flexibility but the B757 replacement isn't necessarily another airliner type...although to be fair the choice of options aren't great for NZ. I see the B757 also have occasionally flown pallets of shells (was it Naval 4.5in or Army L119 105mm...can't remember)...in the main deck!

They'd also be a good deployment option where the C-130 does the spares/supplies & the B757 the pax with extra spares/supplies capacity... but they don't seem to do much of that these days!

 

[Stampede]

Love a good curry, but unfortunately my stomach won't let me eat them anymore.

WRT EMAC, the USN contracted GA to have a MQ-9B SeaGuardian at RIMPAC 2022 so hopefully NZDF got to have a good look at its capabilities. I would really like to see the B757 replaced by 3 A330MRTT & 3 KHI C-2 plus 2 more C-130J-30.

No not the Growlers because the F-35 can do most of that now. We are a maritime nation so we'd be far better concentrating on fast jet maritime strike, so we basically want a fast jet with long legs and a good weapons loadout, which rule the F-18 series out. And we require quantity because we will take combat losses. Quality is great, but it's of little use if you have a very limited number of platforms, and you are losing irreplaceable platforms due to combat losses. The Ukraine war is teaching lessons such as that, lessons which we learned the hard way during WW2 and promptly forgot in 1946. I would be very tempted to start with the KAI TA-50, then look at a full blown fast jet strike aircraft whilst that capability is being bedded in. The FA-50 is have the KEPD 350 Taurus AGM integrated, which is of similar weight to the LRASM and has the same size warhead. It could be something that maybe worthwhile paying to have integrated.

A lot to be said for the attributes of a fast jet trainer / light combat aircraft.
They have limitations compared to a 4 / 5 gen Multirole aircraft but that is not the comparison.
It is what they offer a small defence force for a broad range of tasking many of which are forgone by not having such a platform.
A modest number would be a prudent investment.
Add another two P-8s and another Hercules for a total of six with all been the KC-130J variant and NZ will probably get the Air force it both needs and could afford.



Cheers S

 

[ImJustDubzzz]

Although still a little over a year away from the elections, ACT and National have said respectively"ACT wants to lift the annual amount spent on the military to $9.15 billion by 2026" and "We have to go through budgets and work out how we can do it, and how we can manage it - obviously it's a challenging time economically for New Zealand." Nationals is regarding raising defence spending to 2% of GDP. ACTs defence spokesperson when asked "about what sort of equipment the NZDF needs did mention this "Australia is spending A$16 billion on replacing its F/A 18 Super Hornets with 72 F 35 stealth fighter jets which McDowall says he is looking at “with great interest” but concedes that buying some of the F/A 18’s might be more appropriate for New Zealand."

Source 1 - ACTs views

Source 2 - Nationals views

I do have a friend that had a chat with Chris Luxon about the ACF but it's not representative of a party view, nor is it exactly credible however I will still mention it. What he did say is that he is interested in at least a small number of fast jets, I wouldn't take it as anything seriously though I just thought it might be worth a mention.

 

[Gooey]

Good grief, here we go again...

... then repeatedly raising the idea has very little value as a point of discussion.

Todg,

I entirely understand and agree with your note on regenerating any ACF through the requirement for both NZ political engagement and allocating the necessary resourcing. Then building up RNZAF capability; seen my note on expanding 3, 5, and 40 Sqn's which would double current personnel numbers and in my mind include the P-8A weapons that you describe. Then systematically, developing a new ACF as per Gibbo's description above.

I would respectively argue that there is every value in raising the latest why/how/when discussions on RNZAF combat capability. Especially, in this new age of strategic competition in the South Pacific via the expansion of CCP/PLAN influence and the currently unbalanced NZDF force structure. This being particularly for modern, war fighting, maritime operations.

So rather than futile, I would argue that it is essential that the current RNZAF capability is raised.