The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Russia, Ukraine sign UN-backed grain export deal



If the news article is correct (Havent found the agreement its self, Just a ton of news articles which clogs the search up ugh) then the ports arent meant to be attacked which puts Russian forces squarly in the wrong however it does get a bit murky..

Ukraine according to liveuamap.com claims to have detected 4 Kalibre missiles, shot down 2 and 2 struck the port however according the Turkish defence officials as per a bbc.com article Russia denies they carried out the attack and are 'examining the issue' very closely....
Well russia is going down the same path they have used over and over.


denying they launched any missiles at odessa

next will come one or more of the following

Ukraine launched missiles at themselves as a false flag
We targeted a military asset
there were military assets in the general area
Ukraine shot it down and it only hit there because of the Ukrainians

Take the kramatorsk excuses and just insert Odessa

What russia did do is sign an agreement guaranteeing safe passage of ships to 3 ports. Then what they did was muddy the waters by hitting something at least directly adjacent, if not part of the grain terminal. Reports vary if they hit a large grain bin or just near it.

What the result will be is that ship owners will be reluctant to send ships to any ukrainian port and insurers will either not offer insurance or it will be exorbitantly high. Again, why would anyone trust any agreement russia signed is beyond me.
Interesting and strange. The targets included some port structures and some Ukrainian navy vessels. I don't see why they would deny it. It's not particularly different from any other Russian strikes recently. I don't think this will scuttle the deal. I think the Turks will expect Russia to allow the ships in and out unmolested, and that will be that. If Russia fails to deliver, their problem will be with their relations with Turkey.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
Interesting and strange. The targets included some port structures and some Ukrainian navy vessels. I don't see why they would deny it. It's not particularly different from any other Russian strikes recently. I don't think this will scuttle the deal. I think the Turks will expect Russia to allow the ships in and out unmolested, and that will be that. If Russia fails to deliver, their problem will be with their relations with Turkey.
Apperantly some of the infrastructure damage was to the grain handling terminal. Can not exactly admit "We launched missiles to take out 1 or more minor craft that are of zero strategic value or threat to our operation knowingly risking damage to the grain handling facilities in one of the 3 ports we just signed an agreement to not attack... Woops"

It wont scuttle the deal and luckily the damage was not severe so wont impact grain exports but I imagine Turkey will not be happy even more so because they have put their name down on this deal, Means they have skin in it now and will not be happy if Russian actions risks risks the Turkish gaurantee.
 

ngatimozart

Super Moderator
Staff member
Verified Defense Pro
It has less to do with trust than with necessity. There is no way any grain can be shipped out without Russian cooperation and agreement unless NATO is wiling to deploy naval assets to the Black Sea.
NATO cannot deploy any naval assets from the Mediterranean Sea into the Black Sea because the Turks have banned the transit of any naval vessels through the Bosphorus Straits. They have claimed that they are allowed to do this under the 1936 Montreux Convention regarding the Régime of Straits [of the Bosphorus], page 215 in the link. Articles 18 (p. 223) and 19 (p. 225) apply and at any time non Black Sea navies are allowed no more than 45,000 tons of aggregate tonnage and be in the sea for no longer than a period of 21 days.
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
NATO cannot deploy any naval assets from the Mediterranean Sea into the Black Sea because the Turks have banned the transit of any naval vessels through the Bosphorus Straits.
Technically for example Rumanian fleet is part of NATO and they are still in Black fleet. However even if somehow Turkiye let them (non NATO Black Sea members) fleet pass, they're not going to enter any Ukraine still hold ports, without any sort of agreement with Russia anyway.

Turkiye fleet more likely will help monitor the grain ships traffic, and basically they're part of NATO's fleet. So Sultan Erdo now shown more to NATO Western allies, "you need me".


Put Patrick Lancaster video as this's the video that shown latest condition of Bridge on Kherson. Off course as part of Pro Russian channel (even tough claim to be independent), this part of Russian showing that Ukraine HIMARS attack is only make slight damage to the Bridge, it is still open to commercial traffic, and Russia has abilities to handle HIMARS threat. Thus HIMARS not really game changing assets as West told in their media.

Will be interesting if any Western Mainstream media going to put commentators that going to repute that claim.

Seems it is not taking that long.
 

Twain

Active Member

It's like Ukrainian artillery is showing off :), a hit every 10 meters all in the same lane leaving one lane open. Not all that different from the Antonovskiy bridge near Kherson. Damaged but still usable. They obviously could have taken out both bridges but chose not to. It does leave the bridges still usable to Ukraine at a later date and it may set conditions for several things.

Russian supply convoys getting backed up much like the 40 km convoy to nowhere north of Kiev?
A choke point in case the russians try to retreat across them?
Isolate portions of the russian army to prevent mutual support?

I'm really curious where UAF is headed with this and it's not entirely clear.

BTW it looks like the road on the dam upstream is damaged at the moment but is being repaired


Wonder how severely russian supplies are being affected
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.


Russian strikes land in Nikolaev. Allegedly it was a munitions dump hit by a Tornado-S munition.


Russian sources report another attempted Ukrainian strike against the Antonov bridge failed, with all 12 rockets being intercepted. While this is certainly possible, I suspect, considering range and the side of the target, destruction is a matter of when not if, assuming that's Ukraine's intent. Escalated use of loitering munitions by Russia on this axis in recent days is likely an attempt to hit back.


A Russian oil platform in the Black Sea continues to burn, months after it was hit by a Ukrainian strike.


Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Ukrainian social media sources report 30 KIA and 37 WIA in the 81st Bde, Ukrainian, from a Russian strike near Gulyaypole.


The North.

Russian A-50U lands, Belarus. It's a reminder that the type remains active in support of Russian operations. While Russia can't provide anything near what NATO does for Ukraine, it's still a valuable asset.


Izyum Salient.

Russian Ka-52 providing cover for a column, somewhere near Slavyansk.


LDNR Front.


LNR Cossack artillery element from the 6th Rgt.


Russian artillery hitting Mar'inka.


Ukrainian forces in Mar'inka under Russian shelling.


Rebel Grad strikes near Gorlovka.


DNR 2S3 unit near Ugledar.


Kornet team operating near Seversk, likely Russian SpN.


Battle damage from Russian strikes in Konstantinovka, Bakhmut, and Kramatorsk.


DNR apparently has a Ukrainian POW, a tanker captain, who claims nearly his entire unit is called up reservists 45-55 years of age. He was allegedly captured together with a T-72M tank. Their unit, according to him, trained in Desna prior to deployment to the front. I think he's being tied to the allegedy incident with 3 Ukrainian T-72Ms being destroyed and 1 captured, by DNR reservists.


Another shot of the LNR MT-LB with a Nona-S turret.


Misc.

More footage of Russian PGM strikes.


Russian Uragan strike against alleged Ukrainian M-777 howitzer positions.


A Russian strike allegedly hitting a Ukrainian column. Location and context unclear.


Russian 2S4s firing, location and context unclear.


Allegedly a Ukrainian BMP getting hit by a Russian/rebel ATGM strike.


EDM4S Skysweeper in Ukrainian hands, looks like combat operations.


Destroyed Kozak armored car, presumably Ukrainian. Location and context unclear.


Russian Mi-24P operating over Ukraine.


Russian T-72B3 somewhere in Ukraine. Interesting details include the lumber up-armoring, and the new ammunition storage cases (as opposed to the traditional wooden boxes).


Assorted footage of T-62s in this war.


Soldiers from Ukraine's 36th Marine Bde claim that an officer beat a soldier to death.


Shoygu's recent visit to the war zone reveals Russia's commanders in this war; Center group is lead by General-Colonel Lapin, South is lead by Army General Surovikin, East is Lieutenant-General Muradov, West is Lieutenant-General Sychevoy.


NATO/EU.

Portugal reported supplied 14 M113s to Ukraine. No word yet on the delivery 5 M114 howitzers promised, the article claims Ukraine turned them down as too old (they're WWII era and involve an 11 man crew, so it makes some sense).


Scholtz states that sanctions against Russia will remain in place if peace is made on Russia's terms. I think this is intended to signal to Russia that the diplomatic door on a victory is closed. Either Russia accepts defeat in some form, or the confrontation with the west continues. I don't think this is really surprising, and in all likelihood, the confrontation will continue regardless. Russia appears to be preparing for annexation of occupied areas, as well as the LDNR, continued conflict is inevitable.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Apperantly some of the infrastructure damage was to the grain handling terminal. Can not exactly admit "We launched missiles to take out 1 or more minor craft that are of zero strategic value or threat to our operation knowingly risking damage to the grain handling facilities in one of the 3 ports we just signed an agreement to not attack... Woops"
Why not? It's quite on par with what Russia has been doing this entire time.
 

STURM

Well-Known Member
NATO cannot deploy any naval assets from the Mediterranean Sea into the Black Sea because the Turks have banned the transit of any naval vessels through the Bosphorus Straits.
Indeed and I doubt they would even if the Turks allowed it: the Russians would object and it would draw NATO into the conflict.

I mentioned NATO surface ships in the Black Sea to put emphasis on the fact that there is no alternative to reaching an aagreement with Russia even if it can't be trusted: there is no other option if grain is to be allowed out.
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
Well now Russia has rolled back from their denial of the attack on Odessa to it being a "precision strike" on military infrastructure.

Russia Says Strike on Odessa Port Hit Ukrainian 'Military Infrastructure'

4 missiles to target a single patrol boat? ..... Has to be the laziest and poorest attempt at a justification which does not even come close to cutting the mustard. Interesting to see the Turkish reaction as now shows that Russian officers/officials directly lied to them....
 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

4 Russian loitering munitions hit an alleged Ukrainian staging area. They claim a BMP too, but I can't make it out. This is on the Kherson-Nikolaev axis.


Russia has used an extended range Lancet-3 loitering munition variant in Nikolaev region to destroy a truck towing a howitzer 27 kms from the front line.


Russian strike hitting a Ukrainian BMP column from the 63rd Bde, Nikolaev region, takes out a vehicle with what looks like a direct hit.


Russia identifies and strikes a Ukrainian pontoon crossing on the Kherson-Nikolaev axis.. It looks like a miss to me.


Russian strikes landing in Nikolaev.


Russian strike on the port of Odessa.


Ukraine has hit the Dar'yevskiy bridge, it connects the northern half of the area west of Dnepr under Russian control with the southern area. This bridge is important because complete destruction of the Novo-Kahovskaya dam is unlikely, which means it will likely remain a crossing point. Cutting this bridge could significant throttle traffic to Russian-held areas.


Russian security forces have apparently captured 48 kilos of explosives as part of raids in Kherson region.


Russia has formed a volunteer brigade out of local volunteers in Kherson region. They've named it the Odessa Brigade, with the idea that it will form part of the offensive towards Odessa. They've apparently completed formation and training. The speaker claims most of the service members are Ukrainian citizens, largely from the South-west, but other areas too. Note that we don't see much in the video, maybe ~10-15 service members total. And the word brigade may be used loosely in this context.


The North.

A Ukrainian troop train carrying tanks across the Dnepr, near Kiev. It's an open question as to why Russia hasn't struck these bridges yet.


Kharkov-Sumy.

Russia has apparently downed a Bayraktar in Kharkov region. Note, despite the silly claims of destroying more Bayraktars then Ukraine had ever received, footage of Bayraktar operations has become scarce lately. This suggests that Russia has been mostly successful in destroying them, be it by air defenses, or by strikes of staging areas.


LNR MVD fighter destroyed UXO in Kharkov region.


Russian sources are reporting continued Ukrainian deployment pf PFM-1 mines, remotely, throughout Russian controlled areas of Kharkov region.


LDNR Front.

LNR 4th Bde delivering strikes, location unclear.


DNR 3rd Bde shelling Avdeevka.


Russian/rebel strikes, Avdeevka.


Russian/rebel strikes on Mar'inka.


The Lisichansk oil refinery burns after a strike.


Gorlovka got hit by shelling. One of the targets was the Gorlovka machinebuilding plant.


Rebel T-64BV towing a captured T-64BM, I think this is the same captured tank we saw recently.


An overrun Ukrainian M-777 position near Seversk.


Russian forces near Seversk have captured a group of Ukrainian POWs. Assuming the two photos are of the same group of people, I count 9.


Interesting footage of the pontoon bridge connecting Severodonetsk to Lisichansk.


Rebel 109th Rifle Rgt, reservists, is receiving aid cargo from Russia.


Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations has dug piles of weapons out of Azovstal' as part of ongoing work in clearing the ruins. They're also clearing mines from Mariupol' and the surrounding country-side.


Russia.

Russia is using helos to patrol the border areas due to recent Ukrainian attacks.


Russian Grad MLRS reactivated from storage and heading to Ukraine.


Russian volunteer fighters continue training in Chechnya.


Lavrov says the geography of the special operation has changed. I'm pretty sure he means it's changed since the LDNR areas were declared as the main targets. I think he's signalling that Russia will focus on Zaporozhye, Nikolaev, and possibly Kharkov, after clearing the rest of Donetsk region.


Misc.

Russian LMUR strike, location and context unclear.


Russian TOS-1A operations, location and context unclear.


Russian EOD clearing mines, location and context unclear.


Ukrainian truck, uparmored haphazardly.


Krab SP howitzer operating somewhere in Ukraine.


Ukrainians have upgraded a captured BTR-82A with thermals and up-armoring.


NATO/EU.


Another package of British military aid has been announced for Ukraine. It will include over 20 M109 SP Howitzers, and 36 towed L119 howitzers. The M109s were apparently sourced from Belgium, and the L119s possibly from Australia and NZ. The package also includes 1600 anti-tank munitions, and hundreds of loitering munitions.


The US is apparently going to hand over another 580 Phoenix Ghost loitering munitions to Ukraine.

 

Feanor

Super Moderator
Staff member
Well now Russia has rolled back from their denial of the attack on Odessa to it being a "precision strike" on military infrastructure.

Russia Says Strike on Odessa Port Hit Ukrainian 'Military Infrastructure'

4 missiles to target a single patrol boat? ..... Has to be the laziest and poorest attempt at a justification which does not even come close to cutting the mustard. Interesting to see the Turkish reaction as now shows that Russian officers/officials directly lied to them....
Who did the original denial come from? It seemed pretty strange.

 

swerve

Super Moderator
Was there an agreement to stop striking port infrastructure? And was there an agreement for Ukraine to move all military assets out of the port area? Remember, many port areas have a maze of warehouses that can be used to hide military assets. And Russia has been hitting targets in ports for weeks. The agreement is "inspected empty ship comes in, leaves with grain".
But attacking the port those ships would load grain at is taking the piss. It's a clear abrogation of the agreement, since safe port facilities are necessary for it to be loaded. Saying "we won't attack the ship en route to the port, or after it's left, but we make no promises about what happens to the port" is saying "We don't give a fuck what we just signed".
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Technically for example Rumanian fleet is part of NATO and they are still in Black fleet. ...
States with Black Sea coastlines are different. The Montreux Convention lays out different rules for them. The navies of Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia & Ukraine are free to operate in the Black Sea. And for countries with Black Sea & non-Black Sea coasts it also distinguishes between ships depending on whether their home port is in the Black Sea or elsewhere, so the Russian Black Sea Fleet is unrestricted, but the Pacific Fleet, for example, is restricted.

NATO didn't exist when the Convention was drawn up, but its drafters had some idea what they were doing.
 

swerve

Super Moderator
Update.

NATO/EU.

Another package of British military aid has been announced for Ukraine. It will include over 20 M109 SP Howitzers, and 36 towed L119 howitzers. The M109s were apparently sourced from Belgium, and the L119s possibly from Australia and NZ. The package also includes 1600 anti-tank munitions, and hundreds of loitering munitions
IIRC the M109s were in the hands of a private company which was trying to sell them, & the Belgian government had been trying to get its hands on them to send to Ukraine but the company was arguing over the price.

But my memory may not be 100% reliable.
 
Well now Russia has rolled back from their denial of the attack on Odessa to it being a "precision strike" on military infrastructure.

Russia Says Strike on Odessa Port Hit Ukrainian 'Military Infrastructure'

4 missiles to target a single patrol boat? ..... Has to be the laziest and poorest attempt at a justification which does not even come close to cutting the mustard. Interesting to see the Turkish reaction as now shows that Russian officers/officials directly lied to them....
The Russians claim the target was a Harpoon missile storage facility - which is a legitimate military target. In no part of the grain deal was a ceasefire of military targets agreed or discussed.

If Ukraine agreed to demilitarise the port then it would be reasonable to ask that Russia to no longer attack the military port of Odessa. Without that being in place, I don't see how Russia can ignore military threats originating or transiting Odessa.

Below is one of many news outlets indicating Russian claims regarding this attack:

 
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But attacking the port those ships would load grain at is taking the piss. It's a clear abrogation of the agreement, since safe port facilities are necessary for it to be loaded. Saying "we won't attack the ship en route to the port, or after it's left, but we make no promises about what happens to the port" is saying "We don't give a fuck what we just signed".
By the same logic, then shouldn't Ukraine declare the port of Odessa "a demilitarised zone"?
 

vonnoobie

Well-Known Member
The Russians claim the target was a Harpoon missile storage facility - which is a legitimate military target. In no part of the grain deal was a ceasefire of military targets agreed or discussed.

If Ukraine agreed to demilitarise the port then it would be reasonable to ask that Russia to no longer attack the military port of Odessa. Without that being in place, I don't see how Russia can ignore military threats originating or transiting Odessa.
They claim but if such why was the explosion not larger or why was their no secondary explosions from harpoon warheads cooking off? On the BS meter this one is near boiling..
 

Ananda

The Bunker Group
States with Black Sea coastlines are different. The Montreux Convention lays out different rules for them. The navies of Romania, Bulgaria, Georgia & Ukraine are free to operate in the Black Sea.
Yes, I'm aware of that. My comments more to shown, even with Turkiye restrictions on Naval traffic, NATO still has presences in Black Sea. However they will not going to enter any Ukranian still hold ports, until they got some agreement with Russia.

In the end it is Turkiye fleet which is technically part of NATO fleet that's going to be involved in this grain traffic agreement.
 
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