The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

[Twain]

It appears that two of the bridges near Kherson hit by himars strikes may no longer be structurally sound enough for heavy equipment so they are putting pontoon bridges next to them. The possibility exists that the work near the Antonovskiy bridge may be for a ferry made from pontoons rather than a complete bridge.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1551672308779073542

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1551653631954505728

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1551246082306359296

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1551246072781197312

It's not clear just yet whether the pontoon bridge being assembled on the Inhulets river is to be used on that river or moved to the dnipro river. Either way russia is obviously concerned about gloc's to territory north and west of the dnipro.

 

[STURM]

Assuming reported casualty numbers are correct, Russian citizens are likely becoming aware about Purim’s $hitshow in the Ukraine despite all the lies and propaganda. Question is will this knowledge lead to any kind of blowback on Putin?

Feanor would know better but to me; unless the military deposes him Putin will survive any blowback. Also don't assume that just because some some ordinary Russians realise that a lot what they're being fed are lies and half truths that they also against the war or that they don't but part of the narrative that the West/NATO; even before the invasion; wants a weak Russia.

 

[STURM]

Please delete. Apologies.

 

[Señor Pomidor]

There are reports that Russia has cut the last road out of the Uglegorskaya powerplant. It's a strong point, south-south-west of Artemovsk-Bakhmut that's held stubbornly against recent rebel and Russian advances. As far as I can tell what's happened is that while Russian/rebel forces don't control the last road to Semigor'ye directly, the road is within their direct fires. Novoluganskoe village to the south has fallen. In all likelihood Ukrainian forces will withdrawn from this small pocket as they have from larger ones, losing troops and vehicles, but ultimately remaining intact.

Murado

Углегорская ТЭЦ освобождена час назад, сообщают ребята с места. Штурмовали «Оркестр» и НМ ЛНР* при поддержке артиллерии *ЛНР, не ДНР. Извиняюсь перед ребятами

t.me

Приходько РИК

По Углегорской ТЭС И Новолуганке. Территория станции полностью блокирована. Но пока не зачищена. Новолуганское на 50% находится под контролем НМ ДНР. По неподтвержденной пока информации, ВСУ отходит от Семигорья. Если до утра этого не будет сделано в Новолуганском, то ВСУ рискуют попасть в...

t.me

Военкор Астрахань

От подписчиков из Новолуганского.

t.me

МЕЖДУНАРОДНЫЙ ФАН

Что происходит на Углегорской ТЭС сегодня. #репортаж, #Светлодарск @riafan_everywhere

t.me

Взята Углегорская ТЭС

Минут 40 как взяли. Штурмовали музыканты и резервисты из 7-й бригады при поддержке бригадной арты.

leon-spb67.livejournal.com

It seems the power plant has fallen in Russian Hands:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1551927210503700481

 

[Feanor]

There are reports that conscripts have very limited training before being sent to the front line
Russia Sends Army Recruits to Fight in Ukraine After Just Days of Training - The Moscow Times
Is there a reluctance for eligible males from the larger Russian cities to enlist in the military action and are there casualty figures to suggest there are disproportionate casualties for the poorer areas of Russia
Fallen Russian soldiers mainly come from the poorest regions of the country - World News | TakeToNews

What makes you think they're conscripts? The guy being quoted is 31. Normal cut-off for regular peace-time conscription is 27.

It seems the power plant has fallen in Russian Hands:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1551927210503700481

In all likelihood Ukrainian forces withdrew once encirclement became imminent.

@Feanor what would Putin's reaction be if Ukraine started hitting Russian military [emphasis mine - Feanor]targets inside the Russian border with HIMARS or Excalibur rounds etc?

You mean as opposed to hitting civilian targets or shelling indiscriminantely? Ukraine has already been hitting targets inside Russia, so far mostly random border checkpoints or border towns and villages. What's the reaction been so far?

I suspect it depends on the level of impact.

 

[seaspear]

What makes you think they're conscripts? The guy being quoted is 31. Normal cut-off for regular peace-time conscription is 27.



In all likelihood Ukrainian forces withdrew once encirclement became imminent.



You mean as opposed to hitting civilian targets or shelling indiscriminantely? Ukraine has already been hitting targets inside Russia, so far mostly random border checkpoints or border towns and villages. What's the reaction been so far?

I suspect it depends on the level of impact.

This report from Reuters suggests that some recruits earlier from the Donbass area had nil training
Conscripts sent to fight by pro-Russia Donbas get little training, old rifles, poor supplies | Reuters

 

[Feanor]

This report from Reuters suggests that some recruits earlier from the Donbass area had nil training
Conscripts sent to fight by pro-Russia Donbas get little training, old rifles, poor supplies | Reuters

The LDNR mobilized, and sent conscripts to war, with little to no training, and with predictably poor results. However Russia sending conscripts to war would be major news.

 

[seaspear]

I am not sure how much has changed since this report
Russia Prosecutes 12 Officers Over Conscript Deployments to Ukraine - The Moscow Times
Explainer: How does conscription work in Russia? | Military News | Al Jazeera
This report states that conscripts were tricked into believing they were being sent home but
Russia Tricks Conscripts Into Joining Ukraine War, Intercepted Call Reveals (ibtimes.com)

 

[Feanor]

I am not sure how much has changed since this report
Russia Prosecutes 12 Officers Over Conscript Deployments to Ukraine - The Moscow Times
Explainer: How does conscription work in Russia? | Military News | Al Jazeera
This report states that conscripts were tricked into believing they were being sent home but
Russia Tricks Conscripts Into Joining Ukraine War, Intercepted Call Reveals (ibtimes.com)

Now this sounds more plausible by far. Conscripts getting tricked into signing a contract has happened before.

We know they sent ~600 conscripts to Ukraine early in the war, and then were caught doing it. The conscripts were sent home and the officers involved were all allegedly punished. However the usual shenanigans of shady recruiting practices and using irregulars to reduce reported casualties are still ongoing. Russia openly sending conscripts after prosecuting someone is highly unlikely. In point of fact the prosecution is likely meant as a signal to other officers that they will face consequences if they embarass the regime by exposing them in this way.

The part about a truck driving them to the front line without them being told doesn't make much sense. Soldiers are part of units. I guess we'll have to wait for corroboration.

 

[ngatimozart]

Assuming reported casualty numbers are correct, Russian citizens are likely becoming aware about Purim’s $hitshow in the Ukraine despite all the lies and propaganda. Question is will this knowledge lead to any kind of blowback on Putin?

In reality what can they do? If thy protest or complain they are arrested and in some cases beaten for their trouble if they're lucky. Others aren't so fortunate. They get jail time.

Feanor would know better but to me; unless the military deposes him Putin will survive any blowback. Also don't assume that just because some some ordinary Russians realise that a lot what they're being fed are lies and half truths that they also against the war or that they don't but part of the narrative that the West/NATO; even before the invasion; wants a weak Russia.

I hae my doubts about any military coup or attempted military coup. The GRU would have to be involved right from the get go, and you can bet that the FSB and SVR will have penetrated them, just as the GRU will have penetrated both of those organisations. The military couldn't plan such an OP without the GRU getting wind of it, and IIRC the Spetznaz are GRU. For such an OP you would require Spetznaz involvement and other GRU knowledge and skills. The real problem would be whether or not you could trust them. I certainly wouldn't.

You mean as opposed to hitting civilian targets or shelling indiscriminantely? Ukraine has already been hitting targets inside Russia, so far mostly random border checkpoints or border towns and villages. What's the reaction been so far?

I suspect it depends on the level of impact.

I was thinking more of a concerted campaign rather than random attacks and possibly deeper into Russia.

The UK is sending more SPG, 105mm guns, arty ammo, UAVs, anti armour weapons etc., and non lethal aid to Ukraine. UK sending ‘scores’ of artillery guns and drones to Ukraine (ukdefencejournal.org.uk)The L119 guns is what the Kiwi army gunners have been instructing the Ukrainians on in the UK.

ISW Upgrades.
These are deliberately posted without comment in order for members to reach their own conclusions.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.
Jul 26, 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 26 | Institute for the Study of War (understandingwar.org)

Main Points.

• Russian proxy and occupation leadership is enunciating expedited deadlines for the capture of Ukrainian territory to align with the Kremlin’s efforts to prepare for the annexation of occupied territories into the Russian Federation.
• Russian forces gained marginal ground northeast of Bakhmut and are continuing to fight east and south of Bakhmut.
• Russian forces conducted a limited attack northwest of Izyum, likely to secure Russian rear areas on the Izyum-Slovyansk line.
• Russian forces conducted limited attacks southwest of Donetsk City near the Zaporizhia Oblast border.
• Russian forces focused on defending occupied lines and conducted a limited ground assault in northwestern Kherson Oblast.
• Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian logistics nodes in Kherson Oblast.
• The Kremlin is continuing to constitute regional volunteer battalions for deployment into Ukraine.
• Ukrainian intelligence leaks continue to reveal the Kremlin’s annexation agendas for occupied Ukraine by way of falsified referenda.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Russian-backed proxy leadership continues to enunciate deadlines for the capture of additional Ukrainian territory, likely to support ongoing preparations for referenda on the annexation of these territories to the Russian Federation. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Deputy Minister of Information Daniil Bezsonov stated on July 25 that the DNR expects to capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast by the end of August.[1] Various Russian and Western sources have previously reported that Russia intends to hold referenda in occupied areas by the first half of September, likely sometime around September 11, which is the unified voting day in the Russian Federation.[2] Proxy leadership and Russian-backed occupation authorities are likely pushing for deadlines for military objectives to support condition setting for expedited annexation objectives, although Russian forces remain unlikely to occupy significant additional territory in Ukraine before the early autumn annexation timeline.

Full article at link above. The pdf can be downloaded here.

 

[ngatimozart]

DW Daily Digest of Ukraine war news for last two days.

Russia-Ukraine updates: Kyiv reports ′massive missile attack′ on Black Sea coast | News | DW | 26.07.2022

Russia-Ukraine updates: Kyiv says grain shipments to start ′this week′ | News | DW | 26.07.2022

Al Jazeera article on the HIMARS ‘The Russians have nothing equivalent’: How HIMARS help Ukraine | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

Al Jazeera update on Ukraine war Russia-Ukraine live news: Nearly 40,000 Russian soldiers killed | Russia-Ukraine war News | Al Jazeera

 

[Feanor]

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Ukrainian artillery and munitions getting hit, Kherson-Nikolaev axis. Russia is claiming 60+ KIA.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Colonelcassad

Николаевское направление. Горит склад боеприпасов 63-й бригады ВСУ. Заявлено до 60 убитых солдат противника в результате ударов. Источник: @HersonVestnik

t.me

Russian TOS-1 strikes, Nikolaev-Kherson axis.

Colonelcassad

Работа ТОС-1А по позициям ВСУ на Николаевском направлении. Видео: @HersonVestnik

t.me

A Russian intercept of a Ukrainian inbound over Kahovka caused damage to a number of civilian buildings.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Zaporozhye-Dnepropetrovsk.

Russian strikes on Dnepropetrovsk continue. Fires burn from some for quite some time.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

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vk.com

Russian artillery operations, Zaporozhye area.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes land in Kharkov.

Colonelcassad

ВС РФ снова наносят удары по объектам ВСУ в районе Харькова.

t.me

Izyum Salient.

Russian recon unit got hit near Izyum. Based on the conversation, it appears multiple WIA but no KIA.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

LDNR Front.

LNR 4th Brigade fires.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

The Artemovsk/Bakhmut oil refinery got hit by Russia.

WarGonzo

⚡️Эксклюзив⚡️По НПЗ в Бахмутовском ВКС РФ нанесли удар⚡️ Продолжаются бои за Яковлевку и Покровское. Начался бой за село Бахмутовское – пригород Соледара. По позициям ВСУ в этих населённых пунктах и в самом Соледаре активно работает артиллерия союзных сил и авиация. О положение дел на...

t.me

Rebel forces near Berestovoe have apparently captured another T-72M. This is the 4th Ukrainian MBT captured in recent weeks. The Z markings were apparently placed after, to avoid it getting taken out by friend air.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

More footage of battle damage from the strike on Konstantinovka.

Переход на Z.Soldier of Fortune.V

You can view and join @sofrezerv right away.

t.me

Russian Grad unit from South MD, in Ukraine.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russia.

It appears that Russia's 94th Arsenal that houses 2S7s in storage, they're being reactivated in large quantities. 170 were there in April, now there are 110.

Повёрнутые на войне

Гаубицы 2С7 "Пион" начали снимать с хранения на 94-м арсенале, расположенном в городе Омск. В начале апреля на снимках GE было видно 170 2С7. На снимках Planet от 2 июня уже 135. На последних доступных снимках от 18 июля осталось 110 гаубиц.

t.me

Misc.

Russian BM-30 operations. Location and context unclear.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Russian S-300V (not V4, this is is the '80s variant) from West MD operating in Ukraine. Location and context unclear. Note the stars indicating successful intercepts. They're likely doing missile defense work.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

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vk.com

NATO/EU.

Russian PGM strikes continue.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Destroyed, probably Ukrainian (based on the camouflage), T-64, location and context unclear. Warning footage of corpses.

DONTSTOPWAR

Результат боя в Харьковской области. У укров минус танк, бмп и немного поваров. DONTSTOPWAR | ПОДПИСАТЬСЯ

t.me

Footage of an allegedly knocked out Caesar howitzer, location and context unclear.

WarGonzo

⚡️Эксклюзив⚡️WarGonzo публикует кадры подбитого «Цезаря» в ДНР⚡️ Как минимум одна французская самоходная гаубица «Цезарь» натовского калибра 155-мм (по сути «сестра» американской М-777) из числа тех установок, что наносили удары по центру Донецка (конкретно - по автостанции) бала обнаружена и...

t.me

L119 has arrived in Ukraine. They appear to be in action already.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

German Criminal Federal Police has deployed a special unit to Irpen', presumably to participate in investigating alleged war crimes.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Deliveries of German Gepard AAA has begun.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

There are reports that Poland has commenced handovers of PT-91s to Ukraine. This is a T-72M upgrade, that's often considered to be roughly on par with a T-72B.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

 

[Feanor]

I was thinking more of a concerted campaign rather than random attacks and possibly deeper into Russia.

Against what kinds of targets though? Are there large Russian supply depots on the Russian side of the border that can readily be hit?

The UK is sending more SPG, 105mm guns, arty ammo, UAVs, anti armour weapons etc., and non lethal aid to Ukraine. UK sending ‘scores’ of artillery guns and drones to Ukraine (ukdefencejournal.org.uk)The L119 guns is what the Kiwi army gunners have been instructing the Ukrainians on in the UK.

The range on those is much shorter. HIMARS and M-270s is Ukraine's best bet for long range fires into Russia. Even so Russia can and has been intercepting rockets. In most cases you either have to hit something poorly defended or deliver a mass strike, like that recent strike in the south where they used older El'brus missiles in conjunction with more modern systems to overwhelm air defenses. Is there something worth that effort to hit? Symbolism is nice, but based on effect, I suspect Ukraine has been going for the best targets for these strikes that they can, no doubt under good guidance. And more loitering munitions are nice, but only if Ukraine uses them as they should be, instead of bombing border checkpoints and killing Moldavian guest workers...

Рыбарь

В сети появились кадры последствий удара БЛА ВСУ по КПП «Троебортное» в Брянской области. Один из четырех пострадавших в результате инцидента погиб, им оказался гражданин Молдавии Иван Сурдул. Другой выходец из Республики Молдова Василий Кулиш находится в тяжелом состоянии в Севской ЦРБ. Все...

t.me

Colonelcassad

Видео убийства гражданина Молдавии американским БПЛА-камикадзе Switchblade 300 на КПП в Брянской области.

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Overall I think there is no quick, easy, or largely impactful solution. Russia has shown an ability to sustain a mostly volunteer (excepting those LDNR reservists) fighting force, for and extended high intensity campaign against a modern and numerically superior opponent. The Russian military is not collapsing despite foreign stories, though they're certainly not having the easy time Russian propaganda is claiming. Case in point Russia continues to gain ground and likely will continue to gain ground for some time. Also, despite the media picture, I'm reasonably confident that Ukraine is taking significantly more losses. Most of the fighting is done by artillery, and Russia has a decisive advantage in that department both in quantity and in quality, small quantities of modern western artillery notwithstanding. With that in mind Ukraine's focus should be on improving unit training, and doing whatever has the biggest impact on the front. I'm not sold that striking targets in Russia meets that criteria.

 

[ngatimozart]

@Feanor I was thinking more of infrastructure like railways and bridges creating chokepoints. Drop a railway bridge and it's not easily repaired quickly. Similar with road bridges too but they can use the modern equivalent of Bailey bridges etc., to restore the link reasonably quickly. It's more than that to because it also creates problems for the civil population and politically for Putin, albeit to a point. There's also fuel, and other items that necessarily don't go bang, that armies on the march require as well, that has to be stored temporarily in dumps for supply to forward units. If by striking those targets they cause logistics problems that impede front line operations then they've done their job. I do understand the Ukrainian tactic of going after the arty ammo dumps, but there's more than one way of killing an ally cat than stuffing its bum full of cream buns.

 

[Twain]

Antonovskiy bridge is closed after last nights HIMARS strike

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552169933068533770

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552170351680970753

claims it will have no impact on military operations. Hard to swallow that claim, if they put up a new pontoon bridge, it's going to take damage much more easily than reinforced concrete. If they are using a few pontoon sections to ferry vehicles across, they are going to need a LOT of tugs and pontoon sections to move the same amount of equipment and supplies and they will be extremely vulnerable.

 

[Twain]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552198832036913152

better video of the damage. At the 34 second mark it looks to me as if one of the supports is cracked. That's a significant repair job.

also reports of the railway bride upstream being hit

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1552192801047298048

 

[Kutschera]

German Criminal Federal Police has deployed a special unit to Irpen', presumably to participate in investigating alleged war crimes.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Investigations are not tasks/capabilities of the unit shown.

Foreign and Special Operations Unit (ASE)
In the Federal Criminal Police Office, the Foreign and Special Operations Unit is organisationally assigned to the Security Group Division, Group SG Operations, Unit SGE5 Special Operational Tasks. It is divided into the task forces ASE Alpha and Bravo.

The ASE's portfolio of tasks has expanded over the years and has been adapted to current requirements. Today, its tasks include the protection of the federal constitutional organs (including the Federal President, Federal Chancellor, Federal Minister) when travelling to crisis areas, as well as the protection of foreign guests with a high risk in Germany. Other cross-departmental tasks include the implementation of witness protection measures of the BKA Division OE 44 with increased danger as well as prisoner transports within the scope of investigation procedures of the BKA Divisions SO, ST or TE. In order to fulfil its tasks, ASE deploys robust Counter Attack Teams (CAT) depending on the mission and the situation.

If you follow the link, a second one appears in addition to the photos.
Here it is direct:

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Here you can see representatives of the unit at Gostomel airport, in my opinion.

In Ukraine, they are responsible for the personal protection of our "beloved" German government representatives. Whether they can be seen here at work or have organised a private outing for the photo album is not clear.

 

[swerve]

Western aid enters Ukraine from many points, one of them being Romania. The first major city on the way in is Odessa. It's completely logical that foreign military aid gets stored there in some quantities for some time before getting distributed out.

Has the Zatoka bridge been repaired? It looked unusable in the last pictures I saw. Or are they transporting stuff by the road through Moldova? AFAIK there's only one that isn't controlled by Transnistria.

 

[Feanor]

Investigations are not tasks/capabilities of the unit shown.

Foreign and Special Operations Unit (ASE)
In the Federal Criminal Police Office, the Foreign and Special Operations Unit is organisationally assigned to the Security Group Division, Group SG Operations, Unit SGE5 Special Operational Tasks. It is divided into the task forces ASE Alpha and Bravo.

The ASE's portfolio of tasks has expanded over the years and has been adapted to current requirements. Today, its tasks include the protection of the federal constitutional organs (including the Federal President, Federal Chancellor, Federal Minister) when travelling to crisis areas, as well as the protection of foreign guests with a high risk in Germany. Other cross-departmental tasks include the implementation of witness protection measures of the BKA Division OE 44 with increased danger as well as prisoner transports within the scope of investigation procedures of the BKA Divisions SO, ST or TE. In order to fulfil its tasks, ASE deploys robust Counter Attack Teams (CAT) depending on the mission and the situation.

If you follow the link, a second one appears in addition to the photos.
Here it is direct:

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Here you can see representatives of the unit at Gostomel airport, in my opinion.

In Ukraine, they are responsible for the personal protection of our "beloved" German government representatives. Whether they can be seen here at work or have organised a private outing for the photo album is not clear.

I appreciate the clarification, and this makes sense.

@Feanor I was thinking more of infrastructure like railways and bridges creating chokepoints. Drop a railway bridge and it's not easily repaired quickly. Similar with road bridges too but they can use the modern equivalent of Bailey bridges etc., to restore the link reasonably quickly. It's more than that to because it also creates problems for the civil population and politically for Putin, albeit to a point. There's also fuel, and other items that necessarily don't go bang, that armies on the march require as well, that has to be stored temporarily in dumps for supply to forward units. If by striking those targets they cause logistics problems that impede front line operations then they've done their job. I do understand the Ukrainian tactic of going after the arty ammo dumps, but there's more than one way of killing an ally cat than stuffing its bum full of cream buns.

Maybe. Let's wait and see. They've carried out some attacks against Russian rail infrastructure but the damage was repaired quickly, and I suspect the attacks were relatively hard to organize.

Has the Zatoka bridge been repaired? It looked unusable in the last pictures I saw. Or are they transporting stuff by the road through Moldova? AFAIK there's only one that isn't controlled by Transnistria.

Not sure. But it was hit many times, and many of the earlier strikes clearly failed to disable it. I don't know if they're currently using rail traffic to come in. I do know that it was used in the past, and there has been evidence of road-based aid coming in. Odessa is also the de-facto rear for the Nikolaev-Kherson axis. Again, there is nothing implausible about foreign weapons being in Odessa. There is even less implausibility in Russia having intel to that effect, be it accurate or not.

 

[Ananda]

As Ukraine Signs Up Soldiers, Questions Arise About How It Chooses (Published 2022)

Recruiters approach young men on the street, but the standards are not always clear and there are reports of unwilling men being signed up while some eager to fight are turned away.

www.nytimes.com

This is 3 days old article from NYT. There's none in NYT fiber that remotely pro Russian. They are from time to time more frequently become Ukranian mouth piece. So for NYT putting article on problematic condition on Ukranian conscription, for me shown the real problem already more significance.

This is why I always looking on both sides information sources. Both sidesnow are full of propaganda BS that continue clouding real conditions. This is atrition war, thus both sides try to cover real problem on their logistics. However for Ukraine, asside from small arms, Man power is mainly the thing they still can source indigenously.

Western sources try to picture Russian have problem with their man power supplies. Thus they begin to do 'psudo' conscription, which Western sources shown will decrease Russian population moral. However there're no solid proof Russian already doing that, and the conscription coming from both Donbas Republics population.

What's increasing shown proof is Ukrainian own conscription problem, which even NYT shown increasingly become problematic for their own moral level in the front. Again this is war of attrition, and 3 months in the War even Ukranian them selves aknowledge their own MIC practically collapse and they are fighting with Western supplies first ex warsaw pact inventories and some Western equipment.

Will remain to be seen if the West can supply all Ukranian war equipment at par with what Russian can bring. Some Western sources that claim what Collective West can do is similar with what US and UK supply done in WW2 toward USSR. Forgeting that even they help USSR a lot, but the main USSR supply come from their own MIC which Ukranian now does not have it.

It is debeatable how far M270 and HIMARS can do more to Russian supplies line compare to BM-30 and other Russian MLRS and Guns done to Ukranian supplies. Is HIMARS can really weaken Antonivsky bridge structure (Ukraine and some in West claim) or only create problem on upper deck road portion (Pro Russian claim), remain to be seen. Personally I have doubt any MLRS system can bring down the large bridge like that. Historically shown putting down bridge on that size need combination of Artilery and Air Power attack at minimum. Something Ukranian does not have.

In the end all in this war will be determine on how far the attrition cost will effect Ukraine and Russia. This is that each sides try to cover the real situation on their supplies.