China - Geostrategic & Geopolitical.

[Ananda]

ASML’s Current Battleground Now In China On Several Fronts (NASDAQ:ASML)

ASML dominates the lithography market but component shortages resulted in missed revenues and weak guidance. Learn more about ASML stock here.

seekingalpha.com

This is one of the site use by market analyst on shares movement in the market. This one shown the analysis on ASML shares movement trend. Basically shown how ASML worries on:
1. US sanction that prevent them on entering China market,
2. Emergence of Chinese competitor (in this SMEE) as results of that.

The article that I put on previous post talking about the results of their research on Litograph machine.

上海微电子装备(集团)股份有限公司

As the market analyst put, SMEE already have since 2020 working Litograph machine for 90nm node. So the link that you put on China basically has no experience in this area is not correct. SMEE Litograph machine already in the market. However SMEE machine not yet at par with ASML or Nikon (I forgot about Nikon, as the 2nd players in Litograph machine is Nikon and not Hitachi as I put in my previous post).

The question is whether SMEE already able to breakthrough toward 22-28nm node. Currently their model in market SSA600/20 only able for 90nm mode, but they already talking to market of SSA800 for 28nm and SSA900 for 20nm. If they do, it is not far to get them toward 7nm node which ASML and Nikon working on right now.

This is what make market leader ASML worries, as before the sanctions, China has less incentive to pour money and subsidise Indigenous Litograph machine producer like SMEE to catching fast with ASML. The article on my previous post shown how China research institution help SMEE to break into 20nm-28nm node as company plan.

So, China already have technology for DUV Litograph Machine, even Russian Rostec also has it (even from latest info it is still redevelopment from what Soviet era stage). However before the sanction, Chinese semiconductor foundry like SMIC has no incentive to work with SMEE as they can get the latest tech Litograph machine from ASML and Nikon.

What US tech sanction does is to give incentive for China to invest significantly in helping their local Litograph producers like SMEE. While their foundries will then absorb SMEE products, thus provide large captive market. Those money to catch up the tech are not from foreign investors, but PRC national coffer. Relying on their own cash flow it is doubt full smaller player like SMEE can catch up with ASML and Nikon fast.

Add:
Even Chinese source not all untrustworthy no matter how's your feel with PRC. Just try to see if the noise already large enough. When it is large enough, then there is base on that. As for me, if enough market analysts believe it is something to ponder on, then usually it is something solid to base on that.

 

[Musashi_kenshin]

Currently their model in market SSA600/20 only able for 90nm mode, but they already talking to market of SSA800 for 28nm and SSA900 for 20nm.

Again, this is based on what they say - even the second article you provided simply referred to their claims rather than verified them.

My point is not that this is all Chinese lies, it's that Chinese companies are very good at overpromising and exaggerating what they can do to get money, whether it's from other Chinese people desperate to provide for their future or foreigners bored with 2% returns on government bonds.

 

[Ananda]

this is based on what they say - even the second article you provided simply referred to their claims rather than verified them

No, for their 90nm node product SMEE already in the market, but mostly used by their Foundry. So they already have semi conductor Litography Machine already. What I'm point in here, they have the technology, already have the product although not as advance ASML and Nikon yet.

Market Analyst doesn't make ASML assessment if the data is not backing it up. They definitely see SMEE already have tech and Litography machine in the market. Whether they are already able to move toward 20-28nm is what remain to be seen, as currently it is yes still their claim. However 90nm already in the market.

For me, I'm not underestimate their resolve, if they already pouring money in.

 

[koxinga]

Well, I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle. The Chinese have DUV technology and that is their limit. But their domestic players like Huawei prefer to import machines from ASML. So there is still a question of maturity.

Any announcement on breakthroughs on EUV technologies on Chinese side needs to be treated with some skepticism. They might have the breakthrough, but it does not translate to commercialisation.

But Ananda is right about one thing, the Chinese are throwing money at the problem (along with intellectual theft). They will get there, it is just a matter of when/time.

In a way, this parallels what happened on the gas turbine side. Periodically, over the last 30 years, you hear announcements that some Chinese academys have some breakthrough (e.g single crystal turbine blades, engine management). But they never got a reliable, working engine until the last few years. But throw enough money at the problem and you will eventually get there.

 

[ngatimozart]

I would treat it with some caution because the CCP has in recent times increased censorship and not much is escaping their censors and 50 cent army. Also all enterprises are required to have a CCP cell within them and such papers would have to be approved by the CCP before being published.

 

[koxinga]

I would treat it with some caution because the CCP has in recent times increased censorship and not much is escaping their censors and 50 cent army. Also all enterprises are required to have a CCP cell within them and such papers would have to be approved by the CCP before being published.

I have two friends (director/senior director) who joined Huawei and they have their onboarding/orientation at their SZ offices. For foreigners, their day ends once the meet-and-greets / corporate presentations are done. For the locals, they have to go for an extra CCP party meeting at night to make sure that they are "aligned" to the Party goals.

 

[Ananda]

U.S. Wants China's SMIC to Stop Making 14nm Chips

U.S. govt considers 14nm crackdown for SMIC.

www.tomshardware.com

Blinken raises concerns with China's Wang Yi over Russia alignment

Blinken said the Chinese president had made it clear in a call with President Putin in June that he stood by a decision to form a partnership with Russia.

www.cnbc.com

I put this two article shown the contradictories US signal to China. In G20, Blinken try to coerce his counterpart to keep distance from Russia, but in time complaining on Russia and China Allignment.

On other hand the signal to definetely want to curtail China Tech development, shown China they are only one step behind from Russia on US and Collective West containment. Thus why US head diplomat complaint on Russia and China allignment ? It is their action that drive this alignment despite China and Russia continue mutual suspicions to each other.

For me, it is basic. If US want to entices China to keep distance with Russia (as part of so far less succesful drive to isolate Russia outside Collective West and Allies), then you have to give something to China. However by curtailing China tech effort especially in semi conductor (which's so far achilles heal for both China and Russia), just drove both of them together. West continue basically give both of them nothing to lose pathways.

So multipolar globalisation is here. G20 foreign ministry meeting recently in Bali (as preparation for head of state G20 meeting), already shown that. Collective West and its close allies on one side, China and Russia alligment on other side, and the rest of emerging market stay in the middle potentially creating other polar. This can be more interesting from the last cold war.

 

[tabu]

U.S. Wants China's SMIC to Stop Making 14nm Chips

U.S. govt considers 14nm crackdown for SMIC.

www.tomshardware.com

Blinken raises concerns with China's Wang Yi over Russia alignment

Blinken said the Chinese president had made it clear in a call with President Putin in June that he stood by a decision to form a partnership with Russia.

www.cnbc.com

I put this two article shown the contradictories US signal to China. In G20, Blinken try to coerce his counterpart to keep distance from Russia, but in time complaining on Russia and China Allignment.

On other hand the signal to definetely want to curtail China Tech development, shown China they are only one step behind from Russia on US and Collective West containment. Thus why US head diplomat complaint on Russia and China allignment ? It is their action that drive this alignment despite China and Russia continue mutual suspicions to each other.

For me, it is basic. If US want to entices China to keep distance with Russia (as part of so far less succesful drive to isolate Russia outside Collective West and Allies), then you have to give something to China. However by curtailing China tech effort especially in semi conductor (which's so far achilles heal for both China and Russia), just drove both of them together. West continue basically give both of them nothing to lose pathways.

So multipolar globalisation is here. G20 foreign ministry meeting recently in Bali (as preparation for head of state G20 meeting), already shown that. Collective West and its close allies on one side, China and Russia alligment on other side, and the rest of emerging market stay in the middle potentially creating other polar. This can be more interesting from the last cold war.

You have no idea how much of a dick China gives a XXXX about all these "signals". Except for those signals that are relayed to the CPC Central Committee by China's numerous intelligence and analytical services. THESE SIGNALS ARE THE ONLY ONES THAT MATTER TO THE CCP, THEY ARE THE ONLY ONES THAT MAKE SENSE TO THEM.

Moderator Edit. Obscene language deleted. Use it again and an immediate ban for a short period will be imposed. 6 demerit points awarded for 6 months.

Ngatimozart.

 

[Ananda]

have no idea how much of a dick China gives a XXXX about all these "signals".

Watch your language. I don't know what forums that you used to play, but we don't use "F" word in this forum. That kind of language shown you might be not proper prepared to follow discussion in this forum.

Don't talk I don't have any idea, as Asian my self and many others Asian members in here have more knowledge on China, against the guys like you. Signals have been mixed not only coming from China, but also from US and Collective West.

 

[tabu]

U.S. Wants China's SMIC to Stop Making 14nm Chips

U.S. govt considers 14nm crackdown for SMIC.

www.tomshardware.com

Blinken raises concerns with China's Wang Yi over Russia alignment

Blinken said the Chinese president had made it clear in a call with President Putin in June that he stood by a decision to form a partnership with Russia.

www.cnbc.com

However by curtailing China tech effort especially in semi conductor (which's so far achilles heal for both China and Russia), just drove both of them together. West continue basically give both of them nothing to lose pathways.

Talking about that the U.S. "can somehow curtail China's technological efforts in the field of semiconductors" - where did you learn that?!
Putting the technological level in the field of radioelectronics of China and Russia "on the same level" is just "out of the question"... They have long been incomparable...

 

[Ananda]

about that the U.S. "can somehow curtail China's technological efforts in the field of semiconductors" - where did you learn that?!

That's what US try to do. That's their policy, can you read? Whether they will able to do it, that's another stories. However that's their policy by curtailing more advance tech export not only from US or Collective West and allies. Again read first.

Putting the technological level in the field of radioelectronics of China and Russia "on the same level" is just "out of the question"... They have long been incomparable...

And where I put that notion ? I say Semiconductor still achiless heals for both Russia and China. However never I say they are in same level. I already post in this thread and Russian thread that China has more advance semiconductor and microelectronics position then Russia. However against West they (China) still need time to catch up. Even Chinese them selves acknowledge that.

Learn to read before comment. Seems you used to bantered on more confrontational forums that talk on emotion then fact.

 

[tabu]

That's what US try to do. That's their policy, can you read?

There are no fools in the Chinese leadership... The US can't even try, it's completely out of their hands.

And where I put that notion ? I say Semiconductor still achiless heals for both Russia and China. However never I say they are in same level. I already post in this thread and Russian thread that China has more advance semiconductor and microelectronics position then Russia. However against West they (China) still need time to catch up. Even Chinese them selves acknowledge that.

Learn to read before comment. Seems you used to bantered on more confrontational forums that talk on emotion then fact.

OK, I take back my assertion. The Chinese have Taiwan, the "world champion" in microchips, next door. Is it possible for the CCP leadership and Chinese intelligence, through their agents, to resolve this issue ? Or are they able to solve it in another way? And how soon?

 

[Ananda]

The US can't even try, it's completely out of their hands.

Is it possible for the CCP leadership and Chinese intelligence, through their agents, to resolve this issue ? Or are they able to solve it in another way? And how soon?

Those two related to the main achilles heal on both China and Russia. Litography machines either DUV or EUV base tech. Without Litography machine on your own, your microelectronics tech will always under potential threat from Litography suppliers. If your microelectronics still behind your competitors, then your tech progress basically still under your competitors leverage.

China have shown more progress then Russia on this area, but still as being discuss in this thread, China leading Litography machines producer SMEE still quite behind with what Dutch ASML and Japan Nikon Litography machine tech. US knows that, and that's why this where they hope to hold Chinese progress on this crucial stage of microelectronics development.

How soon they can catch up ? it is debateable even within Chinese media and online sources. However they are pouring money on this including attracting overseas talents on this area.

Again what US done is just creating more incentive for China to be closer to Russia. No Russia can not provide necessary tech for China to catch up with West in Microelectronics. China already have substantial leads from Russia on that area. However what Russia can provide to China is substantial leverage possition to back China on getting global influences toward West. That's what already shown in G20.

 

[tabu]

China - The World Factbook

www.cia.gov

I given you this link

China - The World Factbook

www.cia.gov

Real GDP (purchasing power parity)$23,009,780,000,000 (2020 est.)
$22,492,450,000,000 (2019 est.)
$21,229,360,000,000 (2018 est.)
note: data are in 2017 dollars
Country comparison to the world: 1
Real GDP growth rate 6.14 per cent (2019 est.)
6.75% (2018 est.)
6.92% (2017 est.)
country comparison to the world: 26

UNITED STATES:

United States - The World Factbook

www.cia.gov

Real GDP (purchasing power parity)$19,846,720,000,000 (2020 est.)
$20,563,590,000,000 (2019 est.)
$20,128,580,000,000 (2018 est.)
note: data are in 2017 dollars
Country comparison to the world: 2
Real GDP growth rate2.16 per cent (2019 est.)
3% (2018 est.)
2.33% (2017 est.)
country comparison to the world: 129
...............................
- With a GDP like that - what prevents China from buying absolutely anything it wants? And any machine tools, and any scientists and engineers producing such machines?! WHAT IS STOPPING IT?
"Anything that can't be bought with money can be bought with a lot of money, and what can't be bought with a lot of money can be bought with a lot of money!"


Will the Chinese be able to resolve this issue one way or the other? And how soon?

- "Any day now." They've built three aircraft carriers, several submarines, two types of stealth fighters, launched a manned space station and landed a spacecraft on the backside of the moon - a world first. You're just seriously underestimating them.

Ananda wrote:

These two issues relate to the main Achilles heel of both China and Russia. Lithographic machines are either DUV or EUV base technology. Without your own lithography machine, your microelectronics will always be under potential threat from lithography suppliers. If your microelectronics are still lagging behind your competitors, then your technological progress is still largely under the influence of your competitors.

- Same question: what's stopping China from buying specialists who can build lemu ANY machines?

Ananda wrote:

China has shown more progress than Russia in this area, but still, as discussed in this thread, China's leading lithographic machine manufacturer SMEE is still far behind the Dutch ASML and Japanese Nikon in lithographic machine technology.

- Same question. You underestimate the capabilities and abilities of the Chinese diaspora and Chinese intelligence. They don't keep shit like Petrov and Bashirov there - they have IDEOLOGY, they have te best serving in intelligence...

Ananda wrote:

How soon can the Chinese catch up with the leading competitors?

- They have already overtaken them in many areas. They just
.

 

[swerve]

That's in PPP. It's the internal purchasing power. It's also flawed, but only in detail: overall it's good enough.

GDP at PPP is irrelevant to the ability to buy stuff from abroad. It includes such things as haircuts, with the value adjusted to allow for differences in the price between countries. Valuing the GDPs of poor countries at PPP boosts them very slightly because they have cheaper haircuts than rich countries, for example. A trivial case, but it illustrates how PPP is not good for evaluating international transactions. Non-traded goods such as personal services tend to have the biggest price differences.

What you need to look at is foreign trade & hard currency holdings.

Buying scientists isn't necessarily just a question of money. Consider lifestyle. How many western scientists would want to live under the restrictions implicit in being employed to produce critical technologies for China? Physical comfort isn't the only thing people value.

And building something like a lithography machine for microelectronics needs a lot of specialists to work together, & the very best are rare. You can't just hire a genius & set him to work.

 

[tabu]

No one will even come close to ASML with its EUV in the next 30 years. Not even Nikon. Not to mention the Chinese. The Dutch have flown to unreachable heights. Those in the know do not even theoretically see this option

 

[John Fedup]

That's in PPP. It's the internal purchasing power. It's also flawed, but only in detail: overall it's good enough.

GDP at PPP is irrelevant to the ability to buy stuff from abroad. It includes such things as haircuts, with the value adjusted to allow for differences in the price between countries. Valuing the GDPs of poor countries at PPP boosts them very slightly because they have cheaper haircuts than rich countries, for example. A trivial case, but it illustrates how PPP is not good for evaluating international transactions. Non-traded goods such as personal services tend to have the biggest price differences.

What you need to look at is foreign trade & hard currency holdings.

Buying scientists isn't necessarily just a question of money. Consider lifestyle. How many western scientists would want to live under the restrictions implicit in being employed to produce critical technologies for China? Physical comfort isn't the only thing people value.

And building something like a lithography machine for microelectronics needs a lot of specialists to work together, & the very best are rare. You can't just hire a genius & set him to work.

Agree, buying foreign scientists isn’t realistic for the reasons you mention. Unfortunately stupid (actually greedy) western universities albeit with governmental approval have been training Chinese students for years. This isn’t any worse than western corporate entities giving away their Crown Jewels for access to the Chinese market (something the Japanese figured out first which gave the mistaken impression Japan. would overtake the US in the 1980s). Whether all these trained scientists can provide good R&D equivalence to the West under the strict over-sight of the CCP is debatable. What isn’t debatable is the huge number of domestic scientists and engineers that China is producing while we in the West produce lawyers, accountants, and liberal arts majors. BTW, what do failed lawyers often become…..pollies.

 

[Ananda]

what prevents China from buying absolutely anything it wants? And any machine tools, and any scientists and engineers producing such machines?! WHAT IS STOPPING IT?

You're just seriously underestimating them.

Again read before posting.

However they are pouring money on this including attracting overseas talents on this area.

There's never underestimate on China at least in my posts, in fact I always put in this thread on never underestimating CCP drive. However it does not change the fact for now and at least until end of decade they are still behind from leading global Litography machines tech. They are catching up, but until they reach parrity level on this tech, their semiconductor drive still have achilles heals.

Thus on their effort for microelectronics development they are not totally independent yet from potential collective west and allies barriers. That's what US try to exploits, and that's where China pouring money to close the gap (and basically covering their achiles heals).

Real GDP (purchasing power parity)$23,009,780,000,000 (2020 est.)

I come from financial market background, so just like what Swerve put, don't use PPP number as International Trade capabilities comparison. Use Nominal GDP. PPP only shown one economy capabilities on getting similar level consumption in their domestic market relative to similar type consumption on other countries domestic consumption. It is much lesd useful for comparing global trade capabilities.

However their nominal GDP is #2 in the global chart now, thus still shown enermous resources on global trade and still rising. Use that if you want comparing one economies to other, not PPP.

 

[ngatimozart]

No one will even come close to ASML with its EUV in the next 30 years. Not even Nikon. Not to mention the Chinese. The Dutch have flown to unreachable heights. Those in the know do not even theoretically see this option

Are you in the know then? What are your professional qualifications? What are your sources?

You have until 12:00pm GMT/UTC Wednesday 13th July to provide both satisfactory answers and verifiable proof to one of the Moderators. Failure to comply with this requirement will result in an immediate one week ban whilst the Moderator team discuss your continued future on here. We will check the validity of any qualifications claimed and we do have the means for doing so.

 

[Ananda]

Like me, he has not provided any evidence, but neither do I demand any from him, nor do you, by the way. I believe him as well as the following authors who point out that the US will never allow China to legally obtain these technologies.

Read my post from #719 where me and some other members already discuss China progress on Litography Machine from various sources. This's shown their leading Litography producer SMEE at least still a decade behind in current tech development on this area (base on their current product line), from leading Global producer like ASML and Nikon. However China pouring money to catch up on this. That's why at least until end of this decade Chinese player like SMEE need (even with all the effort to catch up) with leading global Litography machine producer. All this base on their current RnD and existing product line.

What Ngati ask you to provide I believe is your claim that nobody will catch up with ASML for the next three decades (including Nikon). That's very tall order, as even ASML themselves (as I put in post #721 on market assessment) was very aware on Chinese own Litography drive while Nikon closing in on them. Clearly ASML themselves did not shown confidence having next 3 decades continue leads.

The market assessment that I provide in post #721 coming from market analyst that already specialised in this sector. Nobody shown ASML will be definitely save to lead for next three decades in this sector. Perhaps you have other sources ?