The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

vikingatespam · Jul 7, 2022

Big_Zucchini said:
Seems like a healthy situation for peace-time. Artillery ammo (separate from guidance kits) is low-tech, and thus countries can easily flex up and down when there is need.

Perhaps it's time to keep wartime ammo production a standard for peacetime, and invest in recycling capability so the high production volume does not translate to high costs (from raw materials).

Of the 20 mil projectiles described in the report, I would bet a large fraction is 105mm, which apparently isnt bring sent over. Another fraction is 8", which as far as I know isnt used anymore (M110A2 was phased out of service), and probably gone. I would hope we have a large stock of 155mm available, in good storage. As for the NATO allies, I can see them being really short-stocked, see the German example of only having 6000 rounds of 35mm of Gepard ammo on hand. Very short sighted.

tabu · Jul 7, 2022

The Russian army is facing big problems with the supply of equipment and consumables for artillery - a view from the other side.

According to military sources, difficulties with barrels for SAUs, howitzers and heavy guns have already begun.

"Barrels are wearing out fast, faster than the factory parameters because either steel sucks or they are made with violation of technology. There is almost nothing to replace them now because new barrels are scarce. At one point we had one gun out of three working near Lisichansk and Severodonetsk. And it looks like it's going to get worse," the Russian artilleryman.

There is a crisis of barrels, which since 2014 are indeed made of worse quality steel (because the supply of quality steel to Russia has fallen under sanctions), there are problems with the supply of tanks and armoured vehicles.

"There is a lot of equipment in storage bases, but it is old and, as I understand it, not in the best condition. What comes to us, we are already reassembling here. Out of three-four tanks we get one in complete set. There is a particular problem with sights and communications. All of this has to be checked and installed after unmothballing, and we are sent vehicles which simply lack accessories. Many tanks do not have an automatic loading system, some have a jammed turret, it simply does not rotate. There are problems with the running gear," a Russian tank commander said.

After the AFU successfully destroyed 11 Russian ammunition depots, the troops faced an acute shortage of ammunition for artillery, tanks and MLRS.

"It will take several weeks to compensate for this shortage. And it should be understood that if the shells are again sent to just any place, they will be thrown to the wind again," says a Russian staff officer.

Overall, the situation with the technical support of the troops, according to many Russian officers, is becoming close to critical and threatens to become catastrophic by August.

"In August it will be quite bad. We won't see any new equipment and there will be nothing to repair the old ones with. If the AFU goes forward at that point, we will have nothing to stop them with," a Russian staff officer.

The problems with the equipment are growing because of the inability of Russian defence factories to set up full operations, because they are woefully short of parts, components and materials, which were imported from Europe, Canada and the US before the war.

Telegram: Contact @Sharpreview

t.me

vikingatespam · Jul 7, 2022

tabu said:
The Russian army is facing big problems with the supply of equipment and consumables for artillery - a view from the other side.

According to military sources, difficulties with barrels for SAUs, howitzers and heavy guns have already begun.

"Barrels are wearing out fast, faster than the factory parameters because either steel sucks or they are made with violation of technology. There is almost nothing to replace them now because new barrels are scarce. At one point we had one gun out of three working near Lisichansk and Severodonetsk. And it looks like it's going to get worse," the Russian artilleryman.

There is a crisis of barrels, which since 2014 are indeed made of worse quality steel (because the supply of quality steel to Russia has fallen under sanctions), there are problems with the supply of tanks and armoured vehicles.

Telegram: Contact @Sharpreview

t.me

Has this source been validated ? Not that I cant believe it, but it would be nice to have some corroboration.

vonnoobie · Jul 7, 2022

vikingatespam said:
Of the 20 mil projectiles described in the report, I would bet a large fraction is 105mm, which apparently isnt bring sent over. Another fraction is 8", which as far as I know isnt used anymore (M110A2 was phased out of service), and probably gone. I would hope we have a large stock of 155mm available, in good storage. As for the NATO allies, I can see them being really short-stocked, see the German example of only having 6000 rounds of 35mm of Gepard ammo on hand. Very short sighted.

No need to bet, can just hope in and read the thing because it actually gives a break down on shell size, type and even sevice between US Army and USMC as well as what is in good condition, what isnt etc.

For the record about 44% of the shells where 105's, and 8% 8inch shells with the balance made up of 155's.

Should also remember this report is 27 years old by now..... If they maintain those levels still and production capabilities is of yet unknown.

Big_Zucchini · Jul 7, 2022

vikingatespam said:
Has this source been validated ? Not that I cant believe it, but it would be nice to have some corroboration.

Ping me when there's a source. Would love some reading material.

tabu · Jul 7, 2022

vikingatespam said:
Has this source been validated ? Not that I cant believe it, but it would be nice to have some corroboration.

Telegram: Contact @Sharpreview

t.me

Sharp`s

82 785 subscribers

Oleg Sharp's author channel: politics, economics, history, trends, insiders, good humour, wicked sarcasm.

Pentaprism · Jul 7, 2022

seaspear said:
The U.S will not be able to provide indefinite amounts of military supplies having to be mindful of other areas of potential conflict That Russia had sufficient ammunition for several months of high intensity use must have been sobering for N.A.T.O countries with more modest stocks

The US does not need to provide "infinite" amounts of military supplies. The coalition of of Countries supporting Ukraine, led by the US, only have to provide more supplies than what Russia can produce. Given the number of Countries involved, the combined GDP of these Countries and the fact that Russia will have issues making hi tech weapons without access to western technology (especially chips) it should not be an issue.

Still the War can go on for many years in a de facto stalemate as both sides are short of quality troops, especially infantry. Which is why I believe the injection of more foreign troops could be critical in deciding the outcome.

Feanor · Jul 7, 2022

tabu said:
Telegram: Contact @Sharpreview

t.me

Sharp`s

82 785 subscribers

Oleg Sharp's author channel: politics, economics, history, trends, insiders, good humour, wicked sarcasm.

I mean... that's not really a source. Did he personally witness what was taking place? Did someone tell him?

STURM · Jul 7, 2022

vikingatespam said:
I think we can all agree the Severodonetsk battles were playing to the RU strengths

That may be so but it doesn't change the fact that at tactical/operational level, as well as C3, the Russians seem to be improving.

vikingatespam said:
bet those stores are generally in sorry shape

Arty ammo tends to have a long shelf life, especially if stored in the right conditions.

vikingatespam said:
Signs of a shortage ?

Possibly. Ultimately whether the Russians bleed themselves out and whether Western supplies to the Ukrainians proves decisive remains to be seen but I will not assume that shortages of equipment and consumables will soon result in the Russians having to abandon what they're currently doing.

vikingatespam · Jul 7, 2022

tabu said:
Telegram: Contact @Sharpreview

t.me

Sharp`s

82 785 subscribers

Oleg Sharp's author channel: politics, economics, history, trends, insiders, good humour, wicked sarcasm.

From what I gather (I wasnt aware of Sharp before), he is UKR, and I didnt see a specific source for that info on the gun barrels wearing out. While barrel wear is no surprise, I am surprised to hear the the RU cannot make good quality steel for the barrels ?

vikingatespam · Jul 7, 2022

STURM said:
That may be so but it doesn't change the fact that at tactical/operational level, as well as C3, the Russians seem to be improving.

Arty ammo tends to have a long shelf life, especially if stored in the right conditions.

Possibly. Ultimately whether the Russians bleed themselves out and whether Western supplies to the Ukrainians proves decisive remains to be seen but I will not assume that shortages of equipment and consumables will soon result in the Russians having to abandon what they're currently doing.

We are agreeing - the RU are improving their "game", at least in this aspect. As for arty ammo having a long shelf life, I would bet money that the usability rates of RU ammo are relatively poor, giving a high dud rate.

I would love to find corroboration about Sharpe's claim on the steel quality of RU artillery barrels.

Feanor · Jul 8, 2022

Update.

Kherson-Nikolaev-Odessa.

Russian Grads firing near Kherson.

Херсонский Вестник

#эксклюзив Работа реактивной артиллерии на Херсонском направлении⚡️‼️ За жителей Херсона, Скадовска, Чернобаевки‼️ За детей Макеевки‼️ Украинские нацисты будут разбиты‼️ Победа за нами‼️

t.me

Alleged Ukrainian positions hit near Nikolaev.

Colonelcassad

Уничтоженные украинские позиции в районе населенного пункта Нечаянное Николаевской области. https://t.me/milinfolive/86452

t.me

Russia apparently intercepted a Ukrainian Tochka fired at Kherson. Note the damage it caused.

Приднестровец

В Херсоне сбили точку У, которую запустили ВСУ.

t.me

Russian Mi-8MT-2 part of the war effort, Black Sea Fleet.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

In Odessa Ukrainian authorities apparently arrested weapon smuggler selling Ukrainian military weapons including foreign rocket launchers.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️‍☠️ Куда девается оружие НАТО? Под Одессой СБУ задержала контрабандистов во время продажи оружия, купленного у ВСУшников в зоне боевых действий. В ходе операции были изъяты 3 НАТовских ПТРК и автоматы Калашникова с боеприпасами. Злоумышленники подготовили тайник в заброшенной хозяйственной...

t.me

The North.

Reports of a large explosion in Kiev.

Рыбарь

Украинские источники сообщают о громком взрыве в окрестностях Киева. #Киев #Украина @rybar *Поддержать нас: 4377 7278 0407 7977

t.me

Kharkov-Sumy.

Russian strikes landing in Kharkov.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны

‼️Город в дыму: массированные удары наносятся по целям в Харькове Примечательно, что до сих пор в городе не ревёт воздушная тревога. t.me/RVvoenkor

t.me

Ukrainian forces digging in near Kharkov.

VK.com | VK

vk.com

LDNR Front.

Shellings of Donetsk continue.

Денацификация UA

Последствия сегодняшнего удара ВСУ по микрорайону Азотный в Донецке Видео от Народной милиции ДНР

t.me

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

VK.com | VK

vk.com

Rebel/Russian shelling of Mar'inka.

Неофициальный Безсонов

#эксклюзив Артиллерия армии ДНР уничтожает позиции ВСУ в районе Марьинки. @NeoficialniyBeZsonoV

t.me

Russian strikes on Artemovsk/Bakhmut.

Colonelcassad

ВС РФ наносят удары по позициям украинской армии в районе Бахмута (Артемовска). #Бахмут #Россия #Украина @rybar https://t.me/rybar/35121

Украинский танк на подступах к Лисичанску. В боях у Белой Горы украинский экипаж этого танка оказался в плену. Танк был задействован в боях под Лисичанском, где был захвачен уже ВСУ, которые его и утопили.

t.me

Ukrainian pickup truck, possibly knocked out, abandoned towards Seversk.

Приднестровец

В Херсоне сбили точку У, которую запустили ВСУ.

t.me

An abandoned Ukrainian artillery position near Seversk, with many 155mm shells.

Murado

ВС РФ уничтожили артиллерийскую позицию ВСУ с «дальнобойными» американскими гаубицами M777 в лесах и зелёнке вокруг Северска. При бегстве ВСУ бросили целый арсенал снарядов и пороха, которые им везут самолётами из США. Мы его нашли. Завтра на RT

t.me

На дворе трава, на броне дрова

Телеграм - канал Милитарист

shushpanzer-ru.livejournal.com

Unconfirmed reports are surfacing that somehow two Ukrainian Caesar howitzers ended up sold to Russia and are now at UVZ.

БЕЛАРУСКАЯ КУХНЯ

Бизнес по-украински. Украинские военные продали россиянам две САУ CAESAR — Bulgarian Military Группа украинских военнослужащих продала через посредника российской стороне французcкие две самоходные артиллерийские установки (САУ) CAESAR по $ 120 000 за единицу, при реальной стоимости одной...

t.me

NATO/EU.

British Challengers are expected in Poland on a deployment.

Центр Рубеж

Министр обороны Польши М.Блащак подтверждает, что в рамках усиления восточного фланга НАТО на этой неделе в Польшу прибудут 11-14 британских танков Challenger 2. Танки усилят силы Великобритании, которые на 6-ть месяцев войдут в состав польской 21-й горно-пехотной бригады (18-й мд). Это...

t.me

A look at ELINT/SIGINT flights near Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus.

China army

Интенсивность деятельности разведывательной авиации НАТО и Швеции вдоль границ Белоруссии, Украины, Крыма в период с 18 июня по 4 июля на фоне проведения специальной военной операции ВС РФ. За указанный период отмечена активная деятельность авиации Запада в Черноморской зоне, связанная, в том...

t.me

Ukraine has received Iveco Lynx MRAPs.

Центр Рубеж

Националисты ВСУ получили итальянские бронированные машины Iveco Lince

t.me

ngatimozart · Jul 8, 2022

tabu said:
Telegram: Contact @Sharpreview

t.me

Sharp`s

82 785 subscribers

Oleg Sharp's author channel: politics, economics, history, trends, insiders, good humour, wicked sarcasm.

That's a social media source from someone who may or may not know what they are talking about. Just because they have x amount of subscribers doesn't make them an expert at all.

I have been monitoring your posts and they are somewhat concerning. We do have a rule against politics unless it is specifically related to defence. We do not tolerate propaganda or misinformation from any source and some your posts are ringing warning bells. If you wish to remain active on here you had better modify your posting behaviour.

kato · Jul 8, 2022

vikingatespam said:
As for the NATO allies, I can see them being really short-stocked, see the German example of only having 6000 rounds of 35mm of Gepard ammo on hand. Very short sighted.

Germany phased the Gepard system out of service 12 years ago with no plans to ever reactivate it. About half of them (with basically the remaining ammunition) were subsequently sold to Brazil and Qatar, the rest is what's going to Ukraine.

Atunga · Jul 8, 2022

tabu said:
The Russian army is facing big problems with the supply of equipment and consumables for artillery - a view from the other side.

According to military sources, difficulties with barrels for SAUs, howitzers and heavy guns have already begun.

"Barrels are wearing out fast, faster than the factory parameters because either steel sucks or they are made with violation of technology. There is almost nothing to replace them now because new barrels are scarce. At one point we had one gun out of three working near Lisichansk and Severodonetsk. And it looks like it's going to get worse," the Russian artilleryman.

There is a crisis of barrels, which since 2014 are indeed made of worse quality steel (because the supply of quality steel to Russia has fallen under sanctions), there are problems with the supply of tanks and armoured vehicles.

"There is a lot of equipment in storage bases, but it is old and, as I understand it, not in the best condition. What comes to us, we are already reassembling here. Out of three-four tanks we get one in complete set. There is a particular problem with sights and communications. All of this has to be checked and installed after unmothballing, and we are sent vehicles which simply lack accessories. Many tanks do not have an automatic loading system, some have a jammed turret, it simply does not rotate. There are problems with the running gear," a Russian tank commander said.

After the AFU successfully destroyed 11 Russian ammunition depots, the troops faced an acute shortage of ammunition for artillery, tanks and MLRS.

"It will take several weeks to compensate for this shortage. And it should be understood that if the shells are again sent to just any place, they will be thrown to the wind again," says a Russian staff officer.

Overall, the situation with the technical support of the troops, according to many Russian officers, is becoming close to critical and threatens to become catastrophic by August.

"In August it will be quite bad. We won't see any new equipment and there will be nothing to repair the old ones with. If the AFU goes forward at that point, we will have nothing to stop them with," a Russian staff officer.

The problems with the equipment are growing because of the inability of Russian defence factories to set up full operations, because they are woefully short of parts, components and materials, which were imported from Europe, Canada and the US before the war.

Telegram: Contact @Sharpreview

t.me

I get banned for posting sources like this, .. TEXT DELETED. Try that again and your next ban will be permanent.

this article from RUSI says it all, The amount of rockets and missiles fired by Russia in this conflict is staggering. they even expend operational level cruise missiles on tactical targets, this proves that Russia is not worried about stockpiles and you have to keep in mind that Russia has to save some weapons in case of conflict with NATO…

The Return of Industrial Warfare

Can the West still provide the arsenal of democracy?

rusi.org

tabu · Jul 8, 2022

The BBC has managed to establish the names of more than 4,500 Russian servicemen who died in the war in Ukraine based on open sources. One in five of the reported dead was serving in the airborne troops. Another 17% were officers. According to experts, the loss of such specialists may affect the effectiveness of Russian units fighting in Ukraine.

Груз 200: что известно о потерях российской армии в Украине к началу июля - BBC News Русская служба

Би-би-си на основании открытых источников удалось установить имена более 4500 российских военных, погибших на войне в Украине. Каждый пятый погибший, о котором сообщают, служил в ВДВ. Еще 17% - это офицеры. По мнению экспертов, потеря таких специалистов может повлиять на эффективность российских...

www.bbc.com

tabu · Jul 8, 2022

Feanor said:
I mean... that's not really a source. Did he personally witness what was taking place? Did someone tell him?

I can only speculate that he has good connections in Ukrainian military circles and imho he has shown the real picture with assumptions, assumptions and conclusions, which build into a logical scheme. But I will not give any more such free sources, as the moderator has warned me that it is against forum rules.
Sorry, c'est la vie...

Ananda · Jul 8, 2022

Better if you want to put sources from Russia or Ukraine make sure those items can be collaborate by more independent party. Not has to be Western ones, as many Western sources also just taking anything from Ukraine as gold info (especially UK and US mainstream media. French, Spanish and Italian seems more scrutinise Ukraine sources lately).

Afterall both of them (Russian and Ukraine) are also battling propaganda war. Thus take anything from both sides with grain of salt as big as sea of azov it self.

Atunga · Jul 8, 2022

@ngatimozart my life doesn’t depend on this, you have already banned me wrongly a few times, if you want to make it permanent your welcomed. I respect the mod here for their work on trying to keep the flow of information balanced and coordinated. Every partaker here has sympathy for one of the parties involved in this war.. some want Ukraine to win while some want Russia to win.. either way, this is a professional military site and the mod always state we should maintain discussions only to military events on the ground, which is perfect. So why ban me because my ideas are a bit different? So what? Any body who is pro Russia or who wants Russia to win is evil and those who want Ukraine to win are angels? Or is it the same problem we have in the world today where certain players are also referees and change the rules of the game when it’s not going their way? Cancelling me won’t change events on the ground..

ngatimozart · Jul 8, 2022

Atunga said:
@ngatimozart my life doesn’t depend on this, you have already banned me wrongly a few times, if you want to make it permanent your welcomed. I respect the mod here for their work on trying to keep the flow of information balanced and coordinated. Every partaker here has sympathy for one of the parties involved in this war.. some want Ukraine to win while some want Russia to win.. either way, this is a professional military site and the mod always state we should maintain discussions only to military events on the ground, which is perfect. So why ban me because my ideas are a bit different? So what? Any body who is pro Russia or who wants Russia to win is evil and those who want Ukraine to win are angels? Or is it the same problem we have in the world today where certain players are also referees and change the rules of the game when it’s not going their way? Cancelling me won’t change events on the ground..

If you have a problem about how you have been treated by a particular Moderator or the Moderator Team, take if off line and discuss it with a Moderator via the Personal Message function. Don't litigate it in the open forum.

I am not going to relitigate your bans because you know perfectly well why you were banned, so stop trying to relitigate it.

If we were so anti Russian as you claim we would have banned one of our own, @Feanor , for his views and posts, plus there are some others on here who haven't been censured or banned because of their pro Russian views. With Feanor, even though we might disagree on some things, I hold him in the highest respect. There are other pro Russian posters who I mightn't agree with there views, but I do have respect for them and there's a couple of those individuals I hold in very high respect. I am sure that I not the only Moderator like this either.

The common thing about these pro Russian posters is that they have the knack of being able to discern what is obviously propaganda and disinformation and what is not. You either don't or choose not too, and that creates problems. It is of no concern to me whether or not you stay or go, or the manner of your leaving if you go, because the Moderation team and senior members have spent enough time trying to help you. We have far better and more important things to do with our time, BUT we will ensure that the rules and standards of this forum are upheld, whether you like it or not.

The Russian-Ukrainian War Thread

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